are mississippi and alabama a writeoff? or is there disappointment in terms of his viability for this? >> there has to be disappointment, rachel. front runners aren't supposed to finish third. you can loose to primary but in the final analysis, he finished third in both states. and so, i think the republican establishment figures have that same sort of unease that they've had all along about romney as the eventual nominee. look, the republican candidate is going to carry alabama and mississippi. that's not the issue. but there is something of an issue in that it's the heartland of the republican party. and once again, he's been told, you know, we're just not that into you. >> nbc news political director chuck todd is pointing out tonight that despite finishing third place, mr. romney could ultimately win the night in terms of delegates. if he sweeps hawaii and he sweeps american samoa tonight. is it possible looking at the delegate problem with which the mitt romney campaign is now saying over and over again it's delegates, de

gingrich would quit if he lost either alabama or mississippi. so, as we keep an eye on tonight's results, newt gingrich's fate is key tonight. even though he personally says he won't get out of the race, regardless of what happens in alabama or mississippi, he's obviously hoping that getting rained out of his planned trip to the birmingham zoo today aheh later in the evening when the other much lower profile race, the hawaii caucuses get going at midnight eastern. mr. paul is the only republican candidate to have committed any significant advertising in hawaii. >>> right now, at just after 9:06 eastern, the latest results we've got. in mississippi nbc calling this race too close to call, looks like a three-way race with 9% of the vote in in mississippi, rick santorum at 33%, mitt romney at 31, newt gingrich at 29. in alabama a race that is too close to call. a three-way race in addition in alabama. right now, rick santorum with 32% of the vote, newt gingrich with 30, mitt romney with 29. that is with 1% of the vote in, so extrapolate at your peri

on the other hand, for rick santorum if he's able to win in alabama or mississippi or both, he is showing really is the conservative alternative to mitt romney and for newt gingrich, a win in alabama or mississippi would show that he has support outside his native state of georgia which was the only super tuesday contest he won last week. >> yes. mark, i want to talk about what mitt romney said, which was southern states are an away game for him, as if they're trying to lower expectations. if you look at the polls, it's tight there. alabama shows he's one point behind newt gingrich there. 3 points ahead of rick santorum. so you know, where does he really stand in the south? >> he has a chance to win on tuesday. in either states or both of them. one thing also worth noting, not only is he within striking distance according to some of the polling we've seen, he's also advertising and his superpac is advertising more than any other campaign that's out there, they've spent more than almost $2 million. much more than the gingrich and his allies or rick santorum and his allies. so while mitt ro

is that enough to allow him to appeal to alabama or mississippi? as you said it's not a monolithic region anymore. its not enough to say i'm southern and i eat grits. but it's whether they think the candidate is really consistent with the right wing of the republican party, what they see as the evolution of the more -- >> we heard about the beef stake, what we heard about josh levs. you actually called the shot in 2008, saying sarah palin just might be a good vice presidential candidate. >> very early on. >> are there any guesses for this race? >> i guess it's not going to be bob mccdonalcdonald, because wh candidate with a woman problem going to do? i mean he's been -- he really has been a conservative standout and if his problem were that you were trying to bring back the conservative men, then you would bring back the vp. but republican women governors, perhaps, many times think of a carly fiorina or somebody like that, but something other than two white guys. >> all right, tom baxter, thanks very much, always good to see you. appreciate it. >>>

alabama and mississippi to remain a credible candidate? answer, yes, he has to win. yes. thus setting up mr. gingrich to end his campaign if he didn't win either alabama or mississippi. so alabama and mississippi, hugely important this year. as long as newt gingrich and rick santorum are both in the race, it seems clear that neither of them can beat mitt romney. but if gingrich loses alabama or mississippi and thereby gets out tomorrow, then therefore santorum can beat romney. or maybe there's some reason for santorum to get out. it's fascinating. of course, now gingrich itself is saying he'll never get out. he said that on friday, and he said it again over the weekend. >>> you've got a little competition shaping up in alabama and mississippi. are these must-win states for you, mr. speaker? >> well, they're states i want to win. i'm committed to going all the way to tampa. >> one of the best indicators that a candidate will soon drop out of the race is that candidate's strongly worded vow that he will not drop out of the race. like in mid-january rick perry made an ad out of not quitting. the ad was called the champion, and the whole point was ad was tha

alabama and mississippi. rick santorum is running third. ron paul is not really competing in those states and. mitt romney which is either alabama or mississippi, it could appealhat he to the conservative base. >> people in mississippi and alabama want a conservative nominee. >> this could come down to a between three running most aggressively. >> of four republican candidates, running as a clear path to get the delegates needed win the gop nomination. a new poll found most republicans would be satisfied romney as their nominee. you can get the latest results on our sister at 6:30news channel 8 tonight. >> president obama and the british prime minister will have about over the next couple days. the two will discuss in afghanistan, syria, and other foreign policy issues. cameron's visit begins tournament game in ohio tonight. and the president will hold a the primeer for his wife tomorrow night. >> hundreds of afghans streets.g in the militants also attacked a delegation visiting the site of the massacre. defense secretary leon says that the unidentified soldier could face charges. he recently suffered a head injury and was also tra

are mississippi and alabama a writeoff? or is there disappointment in terms of his viability for this? >> there has to be disappointment, rachel. front runners aren't supposed to finish third. you can loose close prito prima the final analysis, he finished third in both states. and so, i think the republican establishment figures have that same sort of unease that they've had all along about romney as the eventual nominee. look, the republican candidate is going to carry alabama and mississippi. that's not the issue. but there is something of an issue in that it's the heartland of the republican party. and once again, he's been told, you know, we're just not that into you. >> nbc news political director chuck todd is pointing out tonight that despite finishing third place, mr. romney could ultimately win the night in terms of delegates. if he sweeps hawaii and he sweeps american samoa tonight. is it possible looking at the delegate problem with which the mitt romney campaign is now saying over and over again it's delegates, de

listen to this. >> if mississippi and alabama vote for gingrich tomorrow, that is a vote for this thing to go on and on and on. the only way newt or santorum can win this nomination now is to deadlock it and fill the convention floor. my job is winning a campaign. as a professional i am telling my friends in alabama and mississippi, we can't win this election if we don't have a nominee until september 1st. >> also talking this morning, the american people. they are sounding off about gas prices. they continue to sky rocket. according to "washington post" abc news poll 65 percent of americans disapprove of how the president is handling high gas prices compared to only 26 percent who approve. jay carney talked about the president's handling of gas prices and he got a quick dig into newt gingrich. >> the president is absolutely committed to do anything he can to mitigate the effect of high gas prices on american families and to lower gas prices. what he is not willing to do is to look the american people in the eye and claim there is a strategy by which he can guarantee the price of gas will be 2.50 at the pump. any politician who do

>> i don't think anybody expected mitt to win alabama or mississippi. as mitt said early on in the campaign, that this was an away game for him. i think that's -- i think that's true. look, this is a delegate contest and like i said, our goal was to come in, take a third of the delegates. >> keeping him honest on that claim that nobody expected him to win alabama or mississippi. in fact at least one person did expect, mitt romney in mobile, alabama. >> we're going to win tomorrow. we need your help. >> that was the night before the primaries. not to single out governor romney. of course listen to newt gingrich spin the results. >> i want to tell you this a second. what will become a challenge is we'll now have three or four days of the news media and they'll a say why doesn't gingrich quit. these are the same people that said last june that i was dead. they recycle this every six weeks. and the biggest challenge will be raising money because we came in second and we will have gotten delegates. >> i don't know if you just heard that about wanting to fini

voters, half the percentage saying they are very conservative or evangelicals that you had in alabama or mississippi. the pattern we're seeing is santorum annual wins in states that are as crazy as he is. in the south the rest of us aren't exactly proud of alabama and mississippi and their political past. it's often said alabama and mississippi are too small to be nations and too large to be mental institutions. >> once said of every state in the south just before the civil war, as i recall. santorum has been the gop leader when voters have been asked who best understands average american's problems. if he hasn't already will he poke a hole in that with that statement that unemployment, sort of implying that unemployment is not the most important thing even for those who are unemployed. >> i think another reason he's having trouble in illinois and probably future states, they're seeing the gaffe machine that he is. he takes one step back and back flips another three or four and is always explaining himself. on the substance of this one the argument he was trying to make and it's a pretty good one if

if newt gingrich wins both alabama or mississippi the split continues. rich doesn't win alabama or mississippi, santorum would be expected to gain some what. we tend to oversimplify. it is not that all of newt gingrich's voters would move to santorum. good studies suggest that 55 or 60 percent of them would move to santorum. but romney would get a quarter and paul would get some and some would drop out for a while it is more complicated that it appears on the surface. >> romney camp is confident about the math. they say they have the delegates in place . even if they lose severalitates over the next few weeks, they come out ahead. some say mitt romney is overconfident; how do you feel about that? >> after what they have been through. i couldn't imagine they are overconfident and there are bumps in the road like today in kansas. they will have another bump in the road in kansas when kansas probably votes for santorum. we'll find out later today. what is really interesting, uma and we don't focus on. look at what happened in guam and the northern mara ana.

and that if mitt romney wins in alabama or mississippi where, as he himself says, this is an away gameim, he looks a lot stronger among the republican base than he has so far. >> political observers say it could be a game changer. and if he says he can win in the deep south and's can be a strong general election candidate against president obama -- we do not know. anything can happen. >> hawaii and american samoa also vote today. delegates will be awarded proportionally in all four contests. in a national survey shows a statistical tie between the president and either mitt romney or rick santorum. you can see the numbers and get a look at the polls close from wbaltv.com. >> she is that eight months that to rest, reid, travel, may be organized her closet, and now the longest state superintendent in the country is headed back to work in higher education. she will head to towson university be heading up the campus wide effort to not only prepared teachers, but train educational leaders as well. then the people may ask why -- bam of people may ask why >> people may ask why towson. the less

reach out to governor perry. >> if you were to pick which state romney has a better shot at, mississippi or alabama. >> mississippi i would say. we have all seven of the republican state elected officials, including the governor and lieutenant governor and those organizations are helping on the ground. there's real organization in mississippi and i think that gives us an advantage in mississippi to maybe pull an upset. >> is it the more establishment a businessman candidate can get out in mississippi. >> that traditionally has been true. that's right, chuck. >> henry barbour getting up early for me while on vacation. i appreciate it. go enjoy your family and my apologies for interrupting. >>> wall street is holding its breath as the fed gets ready to make an announcement on the country's economic outlook. the market outlook is next. >>> and a potential game changer. as voters go to the polls, new setbacks for two states in their very strict voter i.d. laws. >>> but first, today's trivia question. who was the first foreign leader to visit president reagan after his inauguration. tweet me the answer.

>> i don't think that anyone expected to win alabama or mississippi. as mitt said early on in the campaign, this was an away game for him and i think that is true. >> this is a delegate contest. like i said our goal was to come in, take a third of the delegates. >> keeping them honest on the claim that nobody expected him to win alabama or mississippi. at least one person did expect, mitt romney in mobile, alabama. >> we're going to win tomorrow. we need your help. >> that was the night before the primaries. not to single out governor romney, listen to newt gingrich spin the results. >> i want to tell you this. we will have throw or four days in the news miedia. these are the same people that said why isn't he dead. they raise this every few weeks. >> i don't know if you heard about him wanting to finish second. >> we came in second which isn't as much as we wanted. >> keeping them honest, mississippi and alabama two states that the gingrich campaign described as must win. last night gingrich spokeswoman, marcy hammond the man that used the words must

political analysts say a romney win in alabama or mississippi tomorrow could seal the nomination for him. >> the white house is horrified by the weekend massacre of afghan citizens, allegedly at the hands of an american soldier. president obama has labeled the killings of at least 16 citizens, including nine children, tragic. insist it would not speed up the plans to withdraw troops. the 38-year-old army sergeant is in custody. he is the father of two. >> this is not who we are and the united states is committed to seeing that those responsible are held accountable. >> defense secretary leon panetta says the death penalty is being considered as the military moves in to investigate. >> the taliban as vowing revenge to the shooting rampage by killing americans. a congressman believes terrorists are already working on ways to deliver this violent retribution. >> kerry cavanaugh is live with the latest on how one american's alleged actions could impact our entire country. >> the shooting of the 16 men, women, and children in afghanistan could translate into the death of american troops.

. >> there had been speculation that newt gingrich would drop out if he didn't win in alabama or mississippi. and romney is not the inevitable nominee. >> in both states the conservative candidates got nearly 70% of the vote. if you're the front runner and keep coming in third, you are not much of a front runner. >> overnight results show romney did win the caucuses in hawaii anisi moe a. next up is missouri which holds its caucus this saturday. we will continue to follow the gop race for president on your website ktvu.com. >>> there has been another step forward for a new 49er stadium. they approved the stadium lease agreement. the deal calls for the 49ers to pay $30 million a year to the stadium authority. the council also approved a $1.7 billion finance deal for the stadium construction project. >>> we understand sal has breaking news. >> yeah. it's a car that is completely engulfed in flames. we can see it from one of our cameras here. it's kind of hard because it's wet, but this is on a city street in oakland. it's actually in emeryville. jj if you are listening you can pull back a litt

campaign in alabama or mississippi. there are also caucuses in hawaii today. >>> the military says the american soldier accused of gunning down 16 afghan civilians mostly women and children could face the death penalty. witnesses say the shooting spree took place in two villages in kandahar province sunday morning. the soldier based out of fort lewis in washington state was a trained sniper who helped train local villagers to defend themselves. new reports from "the wall street journal" are quoting witnesses who say it wasn't just one but several u.s. soldiers who burst into homes in the middle of the night and opened fire. president obama says this is nothing like the infamous massacre during the vietnam war in which several u.s. troops killed hundreds of villagers. but he also says this weekend's attack won't speed up plans to bring american troops home. >> this has been an enormous strain for a decade now on our men and women in uniform. >> the united states vows this incident will not force u.s. soldiers out of afgh

scott, if romney can win either either alabama or mississippi, he can finally claim that he's appeal to go the conservative base. he'd be denying gingrich or santorum states that they should be winning. >> pelley: wyatt, thanks very much. there is a lot at stake tonight for rick santorum as well. nancy cordes is in lafayette louisiana covering louisiana covering his campaign. nancy. >> reporter: scott, santorum is here because louisiana holds its primary next week and a strong showing in the deep south is critical to his argument that he is the conservative standard bearer in this race not mitt romney. >> we think that the folks in mississippi and alabama are going to vote for the conservative who represents their values. >> reporter: santorum has been insisting he can catch up to romney's sizable lead in the delegate count. romney has 432. santorum santorum 186. >> don't vote with what the pundits say. trust your own heart and your own head. >> reporter: >> reporter: santorum's campaign even released a memo explaining his pass to delegate victory which involves staying in the race to

for grabs in alabama and 40 in mississippi and there is a lot to win and lose tonight, from mitt romney, there is a lot do togain and picking up the deep southern state. picking up alabama or mississippi or getting a large portion of those gel delegates and that is giving him more momentum and credibility. newt gingrich staked his entire campaign on the southern strategy and is banking on mississippi and alabama. losing those states there could put a damp or his vow to go through august. rick santorum hopes newt gingrich will bow out to become the conservative alternative to mitt romney and ron paul is focusing on the caucus in hawaii this evening. >> romney needs to win because he hasn't won any of the southern states. >> and he needs this, to nip that in the bud, the whole you can't win over the conservative base of the republican party and that is interesting because they going to be awarded according to the votes. a strong showing could be considered a win. he could take 25 to 30 from alabama and mississippi. >> is there any indication that gingrich or ron paul are considering dropping out after tonight? >> there is no consideration, at least publicly. all of them sayi

diane, preliminary exit polls illinois seems to be more hospitalable than alabama or mississippi. >> thank you, jake. and here's a photograph for the history books, queen elizabeth celebrating her diamond jubilee, marking 60 years on the thrown. a reign spanning from winston churchill to david beckham. a among the 400 guests at westminster hall, the queen chose to single out one person for thanks, her 90-year-old husband, prince philip. >> prince philip, is well known for declining compliments of any kind. [ laughter ] >> but throughout he has been a constant strength and guide. >> they've been married 65 years and recently prince harry, her grandson said it was philip to gave the queen the strength to carry on. >>> why an aspirin a day could keep cancer away. a new secret weapon in the fight against cancer. abc world news with diane sawyer, brought to you by auto stop. to you by auto stop. [ male announcer ] that. right there -- reminds you why you fell in love with her in the first place. and why you still feel the same. but your erectile dysfunction -- that could be a question of

gingrich as got to win down south or i don't know how he can stay in. >> steve, our first team points out when you look at the demographics of alabama and mississippithey fit either newt gingrich or rick santorum. these are folk who is make less than $100,000. they did not go to college. they are evangelical christians. those are not the people who vote for mitt romney. on the flip side he's out spent santorum four to one. newt gingrich, three to one. this same story line here, but well respected republican who is coming up later, jimmy williams is putting his money on your guy, newt gingrich, to win both of these states. >> i think it's loser go home tonight. i think it's the loser leave time. >> loser go home for santorum and gingrich. many people believe it's newt gingrich go home if he cannot win. >> i'm talking about the candidate that i've endorsed. he's got to win tonight after he called the shot earlier this morning and say romney is going to lose and win a third of the delegates. i think he has to deliver. i'll go one better than michael because have few people in the media are running the delegate numbers. i cannot for see a scenario unle

hi while all really is not competing in alabama or mississippi. ntorum is also in lead, it is a three horse race. nearly one-third of racing's reporting in mississippi, even fewer in alabama. the race is far from over. we will. >>pam: still ahead a remarkable commack as of march madness is officially underway. plus, the monterey ellis area with the warriors is over. gary has the late breaking detail on the hot buster nba trade. " hum >>gary: it appears the warriors have given up on this season. the date is march 13th. monte ellis has been traded to the milwaukee bucks for a center who was injured. they also bring back stephen jackson who used to play for the warriors. >>pam: everyone was like what? " if >>gary: says this may be month ellis did not have as much value as we thought. monticello's is gone, they have gotten it a guy who is injured in stephen jackson. the nfl free agency is going fast and furious. jason campbell will be a backup to jay cutler in chicago. he broke his collarbone and was replaced by carlson palmer. how about josh morgan? j

alabama and mississippi tuesday and what's the potential this will really shake up the race? >> it could shake up the race if mitt romney gets a win in the south. if he could win mississippi ort would shake up the race. >> i am stunned. why is he even competitive down there? >> he has great organization a lot of people on the ground he has done radio and ads everything a campaign is supposed to do while other campaigns have lagged behind on all of the resources. not any different than any other states he has been in. >> the fact is, you would think the evangelicals very conservatives are an even bigger part of the electorate than they are in other parts of the country. do they have the same problem with them? >> whether you are evangelical or not jobs are important. he is doing well across the board on those. if your social ishg ue is the on -- issue is the only reason you are voting jobs are important. mitt romney will compete for your vote that's what he is doing in mississippi and alabama. >> do you believe newt gingrich and rick santorum when they say they are in the race all of the way to contention regardless of what happens? >> no, chris, i don't. there is an old sayi

ron paul has not campaigned in either alabama or mississippi. american samoa and hawaii will be holding their caucuses tonight. mitt romney has more delegates than his rivals combined. santorum is hoping that romney will not get enough delegates to win the nomination and that the republican party will choose the candidate at the convention to. more in a couple of minutes. here is a live look at the approach to the bay bridge. there are very few cars. in easy ride. does not look like it is reading too much at this time. will be right back. you put all you've got into that deep-dish masterpiece. but when it doesn't stay in the dish there's easy-off oven cleaner. because easy-off cuts through five times more grease than the leading all-purpose cleaner. so you're ready whenever inspiration strikes. cook with passion. clean with easy-off. >>james: here is a quick forecast for the tahoe area. we are expecting a good bit of snow over the next 48 hours. their winter storm warning is in effect for about 5,000 ft.. tomorrow, 4-8 in his. the winter storm w

. >> at the doesn't win tonight, either mississippi or alabama it's ego from here on out. >> yeah, he has a strong cluster of states he has one in the panhandle of florida because of his racial commentary. in georgia because of the home state advantage and in south carolina because he took on the media. he hasn't broke out of the contiguous mass in the southeast, at the can't extend it to alabama, he can't get any further out of there, so my bet is if he can't get in alabama his best chance in the universe, he has no where else to go. this is where santorum is correct, this guy can't travel. whereas, santorum, whatever you think about him, whatever anybody thinks about him, he has the ability to do very well across the midwest. i'm trying to figure it out what is his strength based on. all across that heartland. i think it may be the business you have been in, ed, radio. i think he has been able to reach people out there on the radio, that explains this extraordinary reach for a guy with no money, who is very far right on social issues. so we're looking to see why he's still in the ra

he did not campaign in alabama or in mississippi. didn't spend any money there trying to win these states. he did spend some money trying to improve his chances in hawaii. the ron paul folks are operating in a very different way than the rest of the candidates are operating but you hear him using some of the same language the romney campaign is using, that it's all about delegates. they think they have a delegate strategy that will result in them having results that make ron paul a lot more relevant than he looks on nights like this. looking at standings like this. do either of you believe their contention? do either of you believe ron paul actually might secretly be more viable than he looks? let me ask you. >> viable? >> yeah. >> viable as a candidate? he's not viable as a candidate, but look, he can do well in caucus states because he has that kind of organization and he's focused on those states. and so he can go into the convention with some influence and some delegates. and get his ideas forward which is, after all, really what

alabama and mississippi tuesday, and what's the potential that this will really shake up the race? >> well, it could shake up the race if mitt romney gets a win in the south. if he wins mississippi ori think that would shake up the race. >> let me ask you something. this stuns me. why is he even competitive down there? >> he's got great organization, people on the ground, de mail, done radio, done everything a campaign is supposed to do where the other campaigns have lag behind on all those resources and are just getting in the game. it's not different than any other states he's been in. >> chris: the fact is that you would think and it's the evangelicals, the very conservative, the tea partiers are a big ger part of the electorate. will we have problems with them? >> if you're evangelical or not, jobs are important to you. he's done well across the board. if you're a socialist, mitt romney is not your first choice. if it's jobs and the economy, mitt romney will compete for your vote. >> chris: do you believe newt gingrich and rick santorum when they say they're in the race all the way to the convention regardless of what happens, senator bayh? >> no, chris, i don't. there's an old

is it safe to assume or no longer safe to assume that he can put alabama and mississippi in his columntunning to see the three-way races. >> it's remarkable. we have a number of polls in both states. it's basically effectively tied within the margin of error. what you look for tomorrow night is romney to overperform in jefferson county, which is birmingham. >> this is where huckabee beat mccain by 1,000 votes. >> four years ago. >> go back to the republican primary. there you go. jefferson county, oops we have to turn the teleprompter off. bring it up. your memory is good. how about that. >> where huckabee cleaned up. anywhere that is urban, romney is going to do well. suburban, the vote is split. whoever wins north alabama, this is the bible belt of alabama. there's a lot of people that think the whole state is the bible belt. >> evangelicals there. >> this is where james won the primaries in '94 and '98. this is where riley was governor in 2002 and 2006. franklin, colbert, jackson. >> across that stretch? >> correct. down here, again, demographically, the gulf coast of alabama looks

can mitt romney steal alabama or mississippi? it was a strategy in tennessee and didn't work. but we'll see. romney added a last-minute stop in mobile, alabama this morning, which advisers say was in recognition of the campaign's belief he could still pick up a win tomorrow. but romney is playing it both ways. also trying to keep expectations in check. last night the romney campaign tipped off local media to an unscheduled stop in jackson, mississippi. but didn't notify the national press corps. at a minimum, romney will wendell gats tomorrow. 47 at stake in alabama. 37 in mississippi. this weekend, though, santorum walked away from the kansas caucuses with 51% of the vote, beat romney by 30 points. santorum came away with fewer delegates. romney won 39 to santorum's 36 in wyoming's county conventions and running the gable in guam, the northern islands and virgin islan islands. romney 337 delegates in his column, santorum moved ahead of gingrich into second place with 146. the romney campaign is now fund-raising on that delegate math. but moments ago on "today," santorum said n

so if there's a republican voter out there about to vote in kansas, mississippi or alabama or beyond who says, whoa, this looks like it might be an even tougher race now, what's your case to say here'sy can still beat president obama on the economy in a sentence or two? >> well, the bottom line is that if we have a candidate that is just a little different than barack obama and just running on the fact that he can create jobs which is what governor romney's doing even though he was 47th out of 50 states when he was governor in job creation, you're going to have a hard time. you've got to have a broader message. you've got to have a message about what's really at stake in this election. that is yes, the economy, the reason it's struggling is because of this president, because of government regulation. he's denying people freedom. and this is an election about liberty, this is an election about big things for this country, about government regulation and oppression of our lives. and that has to be the narrative. it can't be about, well, you know, i'm better -- i'm going to create x num