. >> let's bring in alex castellanos from our washington, d.c. bureau. alex was born in cuba. came to the u.s. shortly after whose family fled cuba years ago. alex, let me start with you. you have a story, a very powerful story of being in school as a child under a newly empowered fidel castro. what was that like? >> well, that's one of the reasons my parents left cuba, took us out of cuba to the united states. i -- when fidel castro took over, i would bring home from school the colorin the brave cuban soldier bayonetting the cowardly american soldier brainwashing the kids and one day at school the teacher said pray to god for ice cream. and we closed our eyes, no ice cream and then the teacher says, well, let's ask fidel for ice cream, and, yay, we got ice cream. at first the castro regime tried to undermine the church before they decided it was easier to co-opt it but that's the story and 60 years of socialism and communism and failure. >> alex, you told us your parents got you out of cuba in 1961. you left with $11 and two suitcases. do you think after this death overnight

. >> let's bring in now abc news political contributor alex castellanos from our washington, d.c. bureau. alex was born in cuba, came to the u.s. shortly after castro took power. we also want to include in this part of the conversation abc's tom llamas who's been with us in the studio speaking very powerfully about his family experience. you were raised among cuban expats in this country. start w. you have a story, a very powerful story of being in school as a child under a newly empowered fidel castro. what was that like? >> well, that's one of the reasons my parents left cuba, took us out of cuba to the united states. i would -- when fidel castro took over, i would bring home from school the color in pictures of the brave cuban soldier bayonetting the cowardly american soldier brainwashing the kids, and one day at school our teachers said, all right, kids, pray to god for ice cream. and we closed our eyes, no ice cream, and then the teacher says, well, let's ask fidel for ice cream, and, yay, we got ice cream. at first the castro regime tried to undermine the church before they d

you take the facts into account and that's what the data. >> you say every piece of data but, alex castellanos, there are places like michigan. you heard nate silver talk about colorado tightening up a bit as well even though he believes hillary clinton will win there. it seems like the trump campaign is counting on this surge of white voters particularly in the midwest. >> in the midwest we've just seen a des moines register poll where trump has expanded his lead there. he is moving in states like michigan, i think, and wisconsin, tightening the gap so could there be a little trump there's some data that says there is. >> keith ellison, he's going to your home state of minnesota. >> i hope he stays there for a long time but, look, at the end of the day, she's offering hope and investment and he's saying just here's who you should hate and blame for all your problems. i think voters care about, you know, what that is. people want to have a better country, not just find somebody to pin it all on when it doesn't go right so i feel like things are looking good for us and i got a really strong fee

soltis anderson, democratic congressman keith ellison from minnesota and republican strategist alex castellanos, democratic strategist stephanie cutter, thanks for joining us. you heard nate silver say he thinks hillary clinton has about where do you put things right now. >> overall number or -- i think she's got about a 95% chance in this election and i think she's going to have a higher margin than barack obama did in 2012. >> higher margin than -- >> she's going to win by more than 5 million votes. by a higher percentage and interestingly, she's going to have a more diverse coalition of voters than barack obama even had when you look at the final numbers this this race. every piece of data points in that direction and my view is you take the facts into account and that's what the data. >> you say every but, alex castellanos, there are some signs of some movement in places like michigan. you heard nate silver talk about colorado tightening up a bit as well even though he believes hillary clinton will win there. it seems like the trump campaign is counting on this surge of white voters particu

alex castellanos? >> well, maybe there's some reasons that men voted against the first woman president, and all of that. but underneath this, donald trump had a clear message, he was change, make again. they were selling t-shirts in the airport, the trump t-shirts said, make america great again. the hillary clinton ones said, hillary clinton 2016. there was no message, vision offering the american people better. they tested 85 slogans in the campaign. not finding that clear message, the campaign, i think, with the vision and the the message may have had an edge. did not support donald trump. >> yes. >> what happened? >> looking like we didn't do well. i think that what we're seeing today is frankly, a rejection of hillary clinton. i think people looked around and said, i'd rather vote for the devil i don't know than the devin devil i know. i think the comey letter was hurtful to her. i think it's astounding that he hurt florida. he h clinton began organizing in florida well over a year ago. when you co

lykay, linsey, thanks, i' joined by matthew dowd, cokie roberts and along with alex castellanos and stephanie rawlings-blake, the democratic mayor of baltimore. thank you all for being here. matt, let me begin with you, sunday, you said hillary clinton has a 95% chance of winning. you sticking with that. >> maybe 96% this morning. i think one of the mysteries we don't know that could affect the election is what's the i think the trump campaign hopes it looks like 2014. the clinton wants it to look like 2012 or 2008. donald trump's only chance to be the new york giants coming across town going to madison square guard enand beating the new york rangers on their ice. >> anything is possible. >> you accepted the challenge. cokie, cokie, you and many others feel it's going to be a much tighter race. >> that's because the country is so to see how you get big swings one way or another but i do think that matt is right, 2012 except on steroids because we are seeing this big hispanic turnout which is very interesting. i think the african-american turnout is going to get up. but we have a group of swin

terry moran along with brian ross our chief investigative correspondent and alex castellanos and kristen soltis anderson and stephanie cutter. >> they have been so patient. >> sitting with us all through the night. terry, you covered the supreme court for many years. there's been a vacancy on that court all year long, president obama's choice has zero chance. >> merit garland, the man forgotten. president obama put him forward. a relatively moderate democratic judge who he thought the republicans could accept but they stonewalled him from the get-go and it paid off. donald trump will fill that seat. and maybe more. and there are other justices who have talked, bandied about the idea of retiring and so the supreme court was front and center especially for so many conservatives. and he has floated a list of almost two dozen names of people he says from that list he will put on the supreme court. they are mostly white, they are strong constitutional conservatives. interestingly some of them very libertarian would probably find unconstitutional some of the things donald trump proposed to but

i'm joined by martha raddatz, matthew dowd, cokie roberts and along with republican strategist alex castellanos and stephanie rawlings-blake, the democratic mayor of baltimore. thank you all for being here. matt, let me begin with you. sunday, you said hillary clinton has a 95% chance of winning. you sticking with that? >> maybe 96% this morning. i think one of the mysteries we don't know, which could obviously affect the election today is, what's the composition it looks more like 2014. the clinton camp counting on it to look more like a presidential election year. like 2012 or 2008. i think donald trump's only chance would be like the new york giants, coming across town, going to madison square garden and beating the new york rangers on their ice. >> anything's possible. >> you accepted the challenge. well done. >> yes, i did. >> cokie. cokedy, you and many others feel it's going to be a much tighter race. >> that's because the country is so divided. and it's really hard to see how you get big swings one way or another. but i do think that matt is right. it will be like 2012 except on steroid