amrita: it is the former.ere, but if you don't want to touch it, then you don't have that oil. i think it is very important to understand particularly for europe, this is very short-haul barrels. if europe needs to go and get something to substitute for russian oil, they may get u.s. oil or rest african oil, the saving time is a lot longer, but there will be a period of no oil coming for europe. that is why the mechanism is high prices. demand has to come down. lisa: people have been arguing for, for example, the u.s. to support the shale industry, to support the local, domestic energy industry. other people have wondered out they could increase production dramatically. they are just not doing it yet on their own volition. what is your view on that? amrita: it is a tricky one because yes, they are not doing it because shareholders are making them return money to them because they have been lossmaking for a decade. but they are also trying to send a signal to the biden administration because the administration

amrita: i do not think the numbers are realistic.aea said you could reduce it by about a third, but you would still need more gas for europe as a whole from russia. any numbers or predictions that say we could get rid of russian gas overnight is extremely optimistic. where will the elegy come from? asia -- where will the lng come from? after this crisis, asia will bid cargo away from europe. we do not have the volume of supplies elsewhere. francine: what happens? is it all talk? amrita: no, we will start to see germany talk about that the industry will need to reduce supply and gas. supply will be grim but a reality if we continue on this path. that is the only way to balance the market. it goes back to how demand reacts because there is not supply in oil or gas. francine: with oil becoming untouchable for traders, who does russia sell it to? amrita: china is starting to buy russian oil again. we have seen discounted cargo heading there. they shipping concerns have kept it slow-moving to the east, and shipping rates are very high bec

amrita: i think that is the challenge.me ways, this gives the incentive to governments to build more renewables to ultimately push through the energy transition, but even germany, who has come out and said by 2035, all of our power grades are going to be renewables, has also said that we are no longer going to actually kill coal off as quickly as we thought because we need it to bridge the gap. i think a lot of these energy transition targets will have to be rewritten with raw material prices where they are. guy: as ever, great to get the daily update it seems at the moment. ask very much, indeed. greatly appreciated, amrita sen and the rest of the team over at energy aspects in terms of managing these tricky markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ guy: i get to work this morning -- probably earlier than that come on the train -- you take a look at the bloomberg, the screen is lit up with extraordinary price action. we spent our day looking at these screens, trying to figure out what all these numbers mean. i am not sure they me

amrita: that's a great question.ese price levels even when they pay back their investors there's enough money to put into capex and increase production and we think that production is growing and we have seen yes, those numbers came out but generally we are expecting 800,000 barrels per day in growth. i think that the challenges these u.s. producers are facing are more along the long term changes that the biden administration has proposed and those are the ones they want removed because they don't want to produce temporarily and then some new restriction comes about . this is a longer source, so to speak. high today but on the other hand the biden administration is still pushing ahead with a green agenda and that is where the tension is and that by definition will mean high energy prices. kailey: finally, with regards to those high energy prices [no audio] -- amrita: it puts a different spin on the medium-term prices but right here, right now of course you will get elevated oil and gas prices given the risks around i

jonathan: as always, thank you, andrea -- amrita sen of energy aspects.rsations could happen in the future between this administration and a number of countries, including those in the middle east and venezuela. there was a visit of officials to venezuela. the response to release to american prisoners. secretary blinken with a tweet, "we welcome the long overdue release and return of those two american prisoners detained in venezuela. we have more work to do." there's a theory that the hope is by doing so, they allow things to start moving again between venezuela and america and maybe take more venezuelan crude. tom: i can't quote it exactly, but in every crisis there is an opportunity. maybe that is what we are seeing with the extreme leaf fractures relationship between washington and caracas. i would suggest that there is a marginal approach here by the u.s. to talk to many different parties, not just a blunt instrument of talking to one. jonathan: the foreign policy is really difficult. at the same time you are backing away from russian crude, you are

we have amrita. so meter, rocky, thank you for being part of the string today. i'm rita, please introduce yourself to the stream audience. hi, thank you so much for having. i saw i'm, i'm a former journalist and i set up something called the health collective to look at mental health and illness from an india lens about 6 years ago. it's a happy holiday. me, child, welcome to the stream. please introduce yourself. i thanks for asking me to join. i am so mad, sir, but i am a psychologist by training and i work as the director of the sandoval medical line, all of the research organization named. yeah, welcome, iraqi. good to see. please introduce yourself to have you as around the world. thank you for having me. i'm really keegan, berner professor, public health agile because foundation of india based in new jerry and professor at university of washington based in guess i 1st challenge is how do you explain in a country's largest india why they would be such a high proportion of young people who take their lives, such a high proportion of women who take their live

jonathan: crowd unbelievable amrita sen, it is spring 2020 in reverse. we needed negative prices to stabilize the oil market. how much higher do prices need to go to destroy demand and stabilize the market again? tom:tom: i've got a fancy chart which is an inflation-adjusted saudi oil, and there was a spike just for a cup of coffee years ago. you and m rita were talking $170 has a test. jonathan: it is truly original. russian companies, who wants to do with them in a moment? ang have decided not to do any business with any russian companies. that is not just based on sanctions. that is a moral start to this. tom: what is so important here is this is a bank that has global frontier economies. jonathan: if the u.s. government tells them not to do something, he won't do something. a law-abiding citizen. ok. we understand all of that. the question is do you have a moral obligation to step back from doing business with russian companies given what is happening in ukraine? i'm not advocating for the answer to that. i am simply asking the question. tom: part of

and amrita ahuja, thank you for coming on the show again >> thank you >> "mad money" will be back afternext - >> let's make money together >> cramer is bringing the thunder. and answering your burning questions in today's edition of the lightning round. (vo) right now, the big switch is happening across the country. small businesses are fed up with big bills and 5g maps that are mostly gaps— they're switching to t-mobile for business and getting more 5g bars in more places. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ultimate business plan... ...for the lowest price ever. plus, choose from the latest 5g smartphones— like a free samsung galaxy s22. so switch to the network that helps your business do more for less—join the big switch to t-mobile for business today. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ with a bit more thought we can all do our part to keep plastic out of the ocean. you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire >

and let me start amrita. you can give us one idea once thought we can build as a panel. what is it? in india, an indian society, where people in quite large numbers would consider that suicide is an option for them. i think, you know, one thing that we've learned is that it's multifactorial, it's a multi dimensional issue. i also want to say it's not just limited to get to visit the topic here, 90 percent of that student suicide in adolescence, globally on the developing world. so i walked on this book with dr. a tardy, so i'm going to talk this question to him. this is maybe to investigate what's happening with the suicide crisis in india. and i would say the big morning for me looking at this as a, from a john mr. game and to understand i'm back in the interview was that unlike the madison we have in the west, it's not all mental illness related doctor provided we've talked about this and not socially dominated that have so many issues that come come to play as well. that's what the book on the screen so we can see it and then to me to not, not we haven't ready, we knew we were go

. >> amrita, weigh in on this.e hear the narrative that there are 9,000 permits sitting around they don't choose to drill right now. and other people push back and say there are other permits that are needed that are stuck in red tape and there's a problem with actual transport once you do drill and those permits are very difficult to get how easy is it to go look and produce more oil on these leases that are supposedly okayed over here it is real easy or do we need to rollback regulation? >> i think longer term there is a case to be made that some regulation may need to be rolled back i think both sides are politicizing it right now. the real issue is rate counts are rising and the challengeis we don't have equipment. if you look at frack crews, we are at 100% utilization. that is the challenge. that is why if produces want, they could increase. having said that, i don't think producers like the narrative coming from the white house which is we need the oil in the short term give it to us now. we don't want your h

joining me now is amrita sen, director of research at energy aspects. good morning to you.mmission presenting later today to its parliament ways it plans to rip the block of its dependency on russian gas and oil, but as you heard earlier, russia's deputy prime minister saying it won't happen anytime soon. your thoughts? i have to agree. europe is incredibly dependent on russian gas and oil and diesel, it goes across the board. there will probably take a decade if not longer and it will be very, very expensive, because notjust the waterboard flows of oil and gas, remember there are pipelines that go for both oil there are pipelines that go fr?" both oil and gas, and the oil pipeline goes to england refineries, which willjust not have access to these, even if europe were to buy it from elsewhere. europe were to buy it from elsewhere-— elsewhere. and germany's chancellor _ elsewhere. and germany's chancellor olaf _ elsewhere. and germany's chancellor olaf scholz - elsewhere. and germany's chancellor olaf scholz has| chancellor olaf scholz has pointed this out, that they cannot

if sanctions is what you are looking for to take this arch higher, even without it, amrita sen of energyts still teed up $150 on brent, and brent right now, $112.40. lisa: her comment was basically the lack of liquidity is keeping prices low, not high, and the more liquidity into these markets, the more you will see prices rise further. how much are we looking at a new world order of oil and gas? jonathan: crude up 4% this morning. we will pick up on this and just a moment. let's look at the cross asset price action. we can say good morning to kailey leinz. kailey: one story we have been keeping on top of is boeing. a boeing 737 plane has crashed in china in the southwestern province with 132 people on board. no news yet on the casualties. the news we have gotten is that china eastern, the airline operating that aircraft, has halted all 737 800 flights from tomorrow. so boeing is down about 6.25%. another big downside mover is nielsen holdings on news that a deal is not happening. private equity players including brookfield and elliott made a $24.58 bid per share for this company. nielse

heard the same thing from amrita sen of energy aspects. lisa: they attributed what happened last week to this idea of people actually pulling back some of the derivative exposure because of collateral calls. so this lack of liquidity is actually leading to prices being lower than where they were otherwise as we start to gain out what a prolonged conflict would look like. jonathan: would you like some of the twitter feed for young bramo ? "i can't believe you actually wore her down." i've been pushing this for a while. "i thing we would all bramo index to replace the dow." i would be happy to quote that. "i hope he buys bitcoin and nothing else." lisa: he went through a period when he was into that, and then he was thinking about some others because of what is backing in fts and he was doing research. staying at home without a lot to do during the pandemic, dangerous. jonathan: an old story that when he first got his big job investing, it is because the older guys knew that he was too young and too dumb, which meant that he would be willing

. >> i'm looking forward to our interview with amrita. i have are been thinking about it given the publications and reading about oil. we went to $130 that reminded me of the spike that may not be based on supply demand dynamics. this is where we deserve to be if you look at what is happening. if russia produces 1 of 10 barrels that the world uses and although europe hasn't cut them off, amrita will tell us they can't get parts for the pipeline euro crude is selling for $85. people don't want it it is going out and stored there is no room to store it anymore. i don't know where we're headed. i think it's up. i think it's higher. i don't think anything will change for a while >> right. >> potentially $150 this summer. we are heading into the summer driving season you are seeing demand takeoff. this is the reopening of the economy. we havehave more demand smaller supply >> the whole situation in russia is bad and getting worse it is not as bad as some of the sanctions. nobody expects europe, necessarily. they can't cut off natural gas they

amrita sen is the co—founder and head of research at energy aspects — an energy market research consultancy but it is a possibility but one thing is even without oil or direct oil sanctions right now, very little oil is actually moving because of the risk to the banking sanctions and that has meant that european buyers are just not purchasing russian oil. china is starting to purchase russian oil again. india china is starting to purchase russian oilagain. india is china is starting to purchase russian oil again. india is not opposed to buying russian crude but it is still serving the same purpose. it it is still serving the same purpose-— it is still serving the same purpose. it is still serving the same --urose. , ., , , purpose. it becomes more sluggish even if there _ purpose. it becomes more sluggish even if there has _ purpose. it becomes more sluggish even if there has been _ purpose. it becomes more sluggish even if there has been something l even if there has been something specifically put in place but also borisjohnson during the press conference talked about weaning themselves o

amrita. this is bloomberg. guy: -- kriti: thank you so much.argest diamond retailer in the united states. joining us now is signet's ceo, gina drosos. thank you for joining us. let's start talking about this kind of russian impact here. we know it is the largest source of diamonds here. how does that affect the supply chains of where you are getting your diamonds from? gina: first and foremost, i would say our thoughts and prayers go out to the people of ukraine. we are a purpose driven company, so it is very important to us to take a stand that we think is consistent with what our consumers desire. so as soon as this conflict started, we immediately stopped directly sourcing any diamond or gemstones from russia, and we have asked our vendors to do the same. we have a promise to our customers for more than a decade that everything they buy in a signet store has been responsive sourced, and we need to maintain that promise. we also made a donation to the red cross to help people on the ground in ukraine. guy: in terms of the impact this has come

high before pulling back, helping set a downbeat tone for the market earlier today joining us is amrita sen, cofounder and director of research just in terms of the price action, how much is priced in right now in terms of taking russian barrels offline if the u.s. and european countries move to restrict russian oil? >> i don't think all of it is priced in, for sure you have seen huge paralysis in the market we calculated about 70% of russian seaborn oil wasn't finding buyers of course, some of that is priced in at about $130, but the reality is that if, and i still think the white house isn't particularly keen to raise gasoline prices at the pump, necessarily, but if the u.s. and say down the line europe were to ban oil imports from russia, then the price has to be significantly higher well above $150, because we just don't have the buffer anywhere else to make up for it so in that sense, not all of it is priced in at all. >> what is happening now in terms of the scramble for physical supply? you did mention that tremendous percentage of russian production, those barrels available are

we'rejoined by amrita sen, director of research at energy aspects.eling the pressure and earlier we heard from the chair of the supervisory board of private bank which is the biggest commercial bank which is the biggest commercial bank in ukraine and she explained more of the current financial situation there. i guess important to understand what is happening especially the lousy ukrainians. the financial system, when you are referring to the actual processing of transactions and individuals access to cash, to their branches, to their payments, purchases, it continues. 0ursystems in our bank are fully operational, i have to say a caveat, at least they work ten hours ago when i spoke with our management board on the ground then. things are moving very quickly and across ukraine and our network. we are maintaining the systems to process, surprisingly, we have over a half of our staff still fully engaged. most are remote, however, the branch network people who are risking their lives to get money to customers, to serve customers, the cas distribution te