view is that, look, they're going to be very hard about inflation because pel does not want to be arthur burns rather be paul volcker if he has to look at his legacy underneath the painting in the fed of his portrait if we have significantly weakening economic data it's going to give them excuse to pause. i have a feeling they're under significant pressure to take that. >> i think inflation is still too high for comfort. >> i agree it is too high but it's a question of reaching neutral. it is not simply an issue of where the rate policy is going to land is such that you don't have negative real interest rates. and if they feel likethey can make that claim, and if they feel like it is still trending in the right direction and they see weak economic data it wouldn't surprise to see them pause. 25 pass point hike ain't much in the grant scheme of things. >> right up next, we're going to take a closer look back on a recent restaurant trade, should we ask for the check now? or stay for dessert. "options action" back in a moment >>> "options action" is sponsored by thinkorswim by td ameritrade e, th

is -- look, they're going to be very hard about inflation, because powell does not want to be arthur burns. he'd rather be paul volker if he has to look at his portrait in the fed. it is going to give them an excuse to pause, and i have a feeling they'll under significant pressure to do that. >> it inflation is too high for comfort. >> i agree it is high, but it is a question of reaching neutral it is not simply an issue of -- where the rate policy is going to land is such that you don't have negative real interest rates, and if they feel like they can make that claim and feel it is still trending in the right direction and they see weak economic data, it wouldn't surprise me to see them pause, and a .25% hike isn't much in the grand scheme of things >> no. >> up next, a recent restaurant trade. should wask e for check or stay for dessert? "options action" back in a moment new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria.

they are captured by arthur burns and the carter era. it isn't the carter era. a different factory. i think small companies are resilient and they have the wherewithal to keep going in this situation. that may be proven wrong over time. but, to see things, i do believe when you talk to the consumer, people wonder why is the consumer still positive? i would suggest part of it is coming out of covid. there was a tremendous level of optimism. we survived the bombardment of bad news for breakfast. secondly, as i think is outlined today or a day or two ago, there is a reassuring. people are building up manufacturing. this is good news for the small businesses of the united states. alix: we will get to that in a second. i want to get more on the manufacturing eco-landscape. new orders were pretty dismal. when you look at that, compared to what you see on the ground, how do you reconcile the two? nick: i think i'm looking at big companies versus small companies. larger companies are a little more cautious today. when i talked to the small companies, they seemed still r

and he a statistician, statistician and arthur burns, who was very close to. president nixon was his somebody he wanted and i wanted. so i thought, oh, finally got a republican. so the day i asked him the question and he stands there like a cow chewing his cud and he finally says well, i guess you have to say i'm an independent. anyway, i get back to my hotel room phone is ringing off the hook and all the republican on the senate labor committee are saying, what? don't you know, there was an election. and so. i said, look, i cleared these names in the white house and i cleared them with the ranking republican, jacob javits. oh, so javits was not their favorite republican. but anyway, i'll give them credit because all my guys did terrific. they were competent people. and even some of the people who objected called and said, you know, we like your guys and jim hudson succeeded me as secretary of labor when i moved. he later became our ambassador, japan. ernie weber became the first man, omb, and he went on he was a brilliant president, northwestern university an

forget about jean-claude trichet he is trying not to be arthur burns.be he is focused on the wrong central bank chairperson, right? if they have to make the switch pivot there will never be anymore confidence under a jay powell led fed and that will be tough for confidence in the future? >> i think the importance for the market to give the fed some direction and need for one more rate hike coming up on may 3rd? charles: what about to jeff's point, they rate hike all of sudden they have to do a cut this summer? >> i think exactly that will happen. july 26th meeting, the fed cuts rates. that is what the market is expecting. the surprise it will be how low fed funds will be by end of this year. this is, this is, happens, it happened in the past quite often. the fed overshoots on one side, overshoots on the other. this is the way it goes but they almost have to drive the economy into a mild recession if they want to tame inflation for an extended period of time. charles: how many phds do they have over are? being a little facetious about it, just a little b

charles: funny we started this thing off with powell avoiding being arthur burns but should avoid beingean-claude trichet. bitcoin, the biggest test against the economic backdrop we described. pops, forms a base. feels like it is doing that right now. where do you see the next near term, month to six months? >> i think the next several months there are considerable risks. you have the debt ceiling liquidity problems to look forward to. we come quite far year-to-date in terms of price action. so i would not be surprised at all if it does take a pause, consolidate, for period of time but i think the say the two-year viewpoint looks attractive because at that point you have the halving cycle. you have probably next rise in liquidity environment. i think there are number on chain indicators that look pretty good. i think the two-year view is very constructive. i think section six months are anyone's guess. i would be prone to consolidation. charles: six months is a walk-in the park. lny, always appreciate your expertise. thank you so much. >> thank you. charles: coming up investors appear c

i mean, i know he doesn't want to be arthur burns, but i hope he doesn't become jean claude either, rightn on your economic board what do you have now as far as where we are and where we're heading in this economic condition. >> well, you know, we're cheerily slowing. but slowing does -- clearly slowing, but slowing does not mean a recession, does it? we saw that the consumer is still hanging on. yes, the consumer is using their credit cards, but there's still money in the system. and as long as there are jobs, you are going to see spending. granted, the more headlines that we have of layoffs, people start getting scared. you alluded to that. they start saying, well, wait, that could be me. but nonetheless, they are still spending. and we are about 70% of gdp. so that's the issue, is how -- the normal path towards a recession up typically comes from the labor market. more people get let go, people stop spending, personal income comes down and consumers really hold back. but we aren't there yet -- charles: right. >> so the market is so braced for it, it's almost like, come on, get it over

kano burned on the holland, frustrating the one-on-one and the arbiter. arthur immediately showed the defender of the hosts a red card. true, it was immediately canceled after a video assistant prompted about the entire norwegian goalscorer sadio mane, and he did not say that he had taken root in munich and earned a penalty for his club. the judge needed varr, and then chemist showed class and composure 11 in the sum of two boys barcelona company stepped semi-final there to play against real madrid similar. playbill, admire the royal club have great playing potential mentor manchester's first coach in history. who managed to reach the semi-finals of the champions league 10 times four times with barcelona and three times with bayern. city real manchester city may 9th could be a big win for some i have heard real madrid have made it to eleven semi-finals in the last 30 years. so i take my hat off to them. i think that all the clubs in the world believe that if you want to win this competition. you need to beat madrid before it was barcelona and now real madrid is

did not do, therefore , at least they beat me at that moment, uh, burned my hand with a red-hot knife, despite the threat of torture. arthurl did not break down and continued to insist on his innocence. the investigation went on for a year. this time , the relatives bit by bit collected information about the likely customers of the case against lawyers lyubertsy district, for which there were fake documents for a land plot. he unearthed the whole thing at that time there he went to court and our judge was just supposed to substitute these documents. well, uh, and such a situation happened arthur, he defended the interests of ordinary citizens, and on land plots in the berezovsky district. uh, there were his clashes, well, not physical ones, but purely documentary ones with the administration of the lyubertsy district and, uh, with a number of people, but entrepreneurs who were millions of people on these land plots. ah, and who planned to build residential buildings there buildings, or there, uh, some other buildings. ah, but they were hindered by these people, to whom these land plots were allocated and who were not going

did not do, therefore, at least i was beaten in that moment, uh, burned my hand with a red-hot knife, despite the threat of torture. arthurdid not break down and continued to insist on his innocence. all. this time, the relatives bit by bit collected information about the likely customers of the case against the lawyers of the luberetsky district, according to which there were fake documents for the land plot. he unearthed the whole thing at that time there he went to court. and the court had to just substitute these documents. here, uh, and this situation happened. arthur, he defended the interests of ordinary citizens, and on land lyubertsy region. uh, there were his clashes, well, not physical, but purely documentary with the administration of the lyubertsy district and , uh, with a number nearby, but of entrepreneurs who had millivites for these land plots, a, and who planned to build residential buildings there, or there, uh, some then more buildings. ah, but they were hindered by these people, to whom these lands were allocated plots and who were not going to part with them , they were really tired of seven structur

who received the order to burn the corpse of hitler after his suicide, which he did on april 30 to escape. he could not in the inner prison of the nkvd gunsha plant colonel, arthurho was taken prisoner in 1943 gunsha. quite a lot tells his cellmate, and he, in turn, transmits. information to the investigator, and to the propaganda of the western powers, gunsche told that one german officer, who was captured by the british and subject to release in exchange, was asked by an english officer before he was sent if he would agree with certain circumstances to fight under british command against bolshevism. it is known that the united states and great britain did not open the second front for a long time during the second world war. they kept track of where the scales would deviate, and in 1945, when victory was predetermined, the situational allies were already thinking about how to start fighting the ussr , english officers in the spring of 1945, invited those captured on behalf of the german military to take part in future joint hostilities against the red army number 45. even before victory. above nazism the british military on the instructions of churchill began