so when as a law has these gold reserves in the bank of england worth a lot of money and they have been blocked from president mughal retrieving and accessing them and as you heard just said that the gold could be released to president so we're not quite oh asking them to stop so i actually wrote a letter to prime minister tree some may and to the governor of the central bank of england and asked them to stop the illegitimate transaction he said that if the money was transferred it would be used by president knew what us mother wrote to repress and brutalized the venezuelan people so the fact that the u.k. blocked to this transaction why i don't call that a when. it was so disturbing to me how much gold is actually very i mean how much are we talking about to a country that by the way is is facing these major sanctions and it's sort of like now you've got to get to like the rainy day fund to feed right ball. how much how much are we talking about well this isn't the first time that they've tried to retrieve the gold and as one official went to london in mid december to try and retrieve

of control. i think banks got in front of the regulators. there wasn't a collaborative interchange necessary for regulators to understand what the banks were doing. today, we made, with the bank of england- met with the bank of england, 3-4 times a week with the understanding that pra have about the risk interbank. whether it's the credit card portfolio or the mortgage portfolio or the trading depth, there's an exchange of information that would have been unheard of pre-crisis. i think that's a very healthy. david: you've strengthened the barclays balance sheet by a lot the last few months or so. how are you making decisions about how to deploy the capital? there were two decisions you made. one was put more capital against investment bank, pull more risk or give it back to shareholders. how do you make that decision? jes: right now, almost all the major financial institutions have a covenant with shareholders that, by and large, most excess capital being generated should be returned to shareholders. if you take the five largest u.s. banks, all of them are returning roughly 100%, if not more earnings to shareholders and dividends and stock buybacks. we've asked for our shareholders to g

of control. banks got in front of regulators. there wasn't a collaborative interchange, necessary for the regulators to fully understand what the banks were doing. today, we meet with the bank of englandhree or four times a week. the understanding that the pra and bank of england have about the risk in our bank -- whether it's the credit card portfolio or the mortgage portfolio or the trading desk on the investment bank -- this exchange of information that would've been unheard of precrisis, i think that's very healthy. david: you strengthened the barclays balance sheet a lot. how are you making a decision about how to deploy that capital? it strikes me there are at least , two decisions to make. one is, i can put more capital against investment banks. the more at risk that way. or you can give it back to the shareholders. how do you make that decision? jes: right now, all major financial institutions have a covenant with their shareholders that by and large most excess , capital being generated should be returned to shareholders. if you take the five large u.s. banks, all of them are returning roughly 100% if not more of earnings to shareholders in dividends and stock buybacks. we've

it is difficult. , economic policy rests at the bank of england. we have been hearing about a government in turmoil in chaos. it is going to fall on the bank, and the bankers have set up scenarios. but it is not a situation that any member would want to face. guy just said it is unlikely the prime minister loses that no-confidence vote. let's assume that to be the case. what happens next? she remains on. what is the path to a deal in that case? danny: that is a really tough one. the extension for the period of negotiations going back to the european union, trying to see if they will allow some change in the agreement. but i think she will have to decide that the deal she had was not doable and probably will be closer ties to the european union. perhaps the customs union being part of that. this is something that theresa may has pushed, maybe even loosening up on the no freedom of movement of people. the reason they that as home secretary. i assume she will have to move away from the brexiteers, closer to something to stop brexit. i think we should

investors, uncertainty, and the bank of england of course. ank of england saw some weaker yet again inflation numbers. mark carney was testifying before the country committee of and he was talking about the fact that the pound surged and stabilized. he did not sound too reassured. he said basically what is happening is the markets were figuring if theresa may is built got crushed and it is uncertain what happens to brexit, maybe -- maybe you don't leave at all. >> that rebound would appear to thatct some expectation the process of resolution would outcomeded and that the -- the prospect of no deal may have been diminished. bloomberg economics also saying eight further brexit delay could add to a bruised economy. that is exactly what you see in the u.k. what is interesting today is the numbers on inflation. the u.k. december cpi slowed to 2.1%. according to bloomberg talk elation's, cheaper fuel prices are probably going to take u.k. inflation below the 2% target this month, the month of january. let's look at the terminal chart. the blue line

the base case, there's 80% chance we end up with some deal or soft brexit, in which case the bank of englandhind the curve, and will have to step up the pace of rate hikes, because of inflation and pressures. what could slow the blank everyone down are expecting -- the bank of england down are increasing signs of tightness in the labor market. francine: there seems to be consensus -- we will go to the wire on this brexit issue. what does it mean for the finance sector? what does it mean for investors? if you are a banker, you just move people out. the banks cannot afford to run that kind of risk. volatility, uncertainty is going to go down to the wire. it will be a prolonged waiting game. it will be a circus like what we got yesterday, but we might have to go down to the wire. brace for that. francine: it means much more volatility. >> we will not have to wait for markets -- we will have to wait until march 29 for markets to do the necessary adjustment to a hard brexit. if indeed parliament votes down the deal and has not decided alternative policies to avoid a hard brexit, we will start to

of course reflects that tightening. to some extent, maybe still these huge balance sheets caret by central banks, not just the fed but the ecb and boj, bank of england as well, that are putting downward pressure on long yields. andit is that flat curve, of course economists are debating whether that is meaningful and something we should worry about. it would be nice to have data so we could check it. shery: what do you make of the fed's massive communication campaign after their last meeting? what were they trying to achieve? chris: i think the most important thing, now that we

and we do not think the bank of england will do anything on rates.if you take a look at the curve and do the math around where we are and where we could be, the market is pricingin 19 basis points of hikes by the end of the year. is that too much? john: it is if the prospect of this deal getting over the line in the next few months gets completely killed off, yes, we would say so. you would look at the boat 10 days ago and -- vote 10 days ago and to say it got hammered in parliament, that deal is finished, by the government hopes they can get concessions to win over a lot of mps. and as long as there is a possibility of a deal being ratified, there is a possibility of the bank raising rates. guy: but inflation is going in the opposite direction. john: but inflation will pick up with positive real earnings. once consumers feel confident enough to start spending money, that requires some sort of -- guy: but that would be the 138 on cable you talked about, because that would dampen inflation expectations even further. the market would put some of that h

mexican policy of anti interventionism on sunday the newly self-proclaimed president asked the bank of england and u.k. prime minister to race a may to seize gold estimated at one point three billion dollars in value held by the venezuelan state in the bank of england loss of access to the funds would deprive venezuela's central bank of sorely needed resources and within the last hour the trumpets ministrations announced new economic sanctions placed upon said country venezuela and their oil infrastructure in order to pressure venezuelan president nicolas maduro to give up power the sanctions include seven billion dollars in oil related assets and an estimated eleven billion dollars of potential oil exports here to help us out on venezuela is the author of venezuela what everyone needs to know professor at pomona college miguel tinker a solace professor thank you so much for being with us i've heard you speak on this eloquently in the past hour so please you spent a little time with us i mean when the u.s. and some other nations threw their weight behind the opposition leader mr goodnow is in

. >> bracing for medical shocks, cb and the bank of england faced sensitive lc decisions. ecb ande editable -- the bank of england faced sensitive policy decisions. >> we are predictable. >> not just implementing reforms. >> i am overwhelmed by the level of interest that continues to be in the south african economy. >> that is all ahead on this special edition of bloomberg best. hello and welcome. i am anna edwards. we will look back at 2018 in europe, the middle east, and africa by revisiting some of the most interesting interviews with leading figures in business. let's start with a story that has been top of mind in europe, britain's negotiations to leave the european union. spoke withheresa may john micklethwait about the deal she intended to strike. >> what i am now working for is the implementation period that will allow businesses to adjust to our new relationship outside of the european union. we intend a comprehensive free-trade agreement. we recognize the importance for financial services and want to ensure we continue to see financial services, ensuring the city

it has also been reported in recent days that the bank of england has refused to allow the majority of government access to the gold reserves that it is holding for venezuela economist and co-founder of democracy at work richard wolffe to list the move is highly problematic. for the venezuelans who put the money into the care of the british bank to determine what is done with it it is not for the bank of england to pick who it's going to give money to that comes from another society they can't continue apparently to be the neutral place where you can safely put your money as many many countries do they seem to be under the thumb of the united states and who is telling them what to do in this venezuela all the initiative is taken by the united states and that is a signal to every other country that has or may have difficulties with the united states that they better get their money out of england out of london because that's not a safe place as it once was. get to another story we're keeping a close eye on this hour the former head of starbucks has announced he's considering running for

and can you talk about some of the -- what will happen to overseas assets, the gold has in the bank of england, money it has in overseas accounts, will the expectation be the interim resident will have control over those funds? sec. pompeo: to your first question, elliott will have responsibility for all things related to our efforts to restore democracy in venezuela. it is a global challenge. there are multiple dimensions in thewe help to assist venezuelans achieved democracy, and he will be responsible for leading that effort. we have an enormous team that has done truly remarkable work today to get us to the point we are at today. they have done this over my eight months, but long preceding that as well. i am proud of the work our state department team has done. elliott will lead our effort that relates to our efforts on behalf of the venezuelan people. i would expect his first task will be to get up to speed, and then travel to new york for the un security council meeting. after that, i cannot tell you where it will take him. it will surprise me if he travels to the region, but the road ah

mark carney, the bank of england governor just started testifying in front of the treasury committee.he is. >> there was a sharp rebound and , anding following the vote in public market commentary, also consistent with our market intelligence, that rebound what appeared to reflect some expectation the process of ,esolution would be extended dealhat the prospect of no may have been diminished. now that, i am not getting my opinion, i am giving the -- giving my opinion, i am giving the markets initial take. that is in the hands of parliament. the markets, as the country are looking to parliament for direction. what would -- one would expect continued volatility. in the very short term, there has been consistent with what i just said, a small rally in bank, some tightening in funding spreads, u.k. bank funding spreads that would be consistent with that. i would not put much weight. >> the market is waiting basically? governor carney: the market is waiting, the market is waiting. >> you know the government is blank secondary legislation in relation to onshore and of eu ofislation -- on sh

bank of england governor mervyn king who said students of economics looking back at the growth of the british economy will be hard pressed to find. the point at which the united kingdom left the e.u. because of course your hope premise that you are advancing is somehow u.k.'s prosperity is utterly dependent upon one relationship that relationship we have with the european union in fact we've been increasing our trade with the rest of the world despite the fact we're not in a single market relationship and you have the big promise from the usa if i may just finish finish the point and the trade we've done with the european union has been declining as a proportion so since the single market came into existence in one thousand nine hundred three we've grown exports the european union by eighteen percent we've grown exports the rest the world by seventy percent how do we do it we're trading on w. toe terms of the rest of the world we're trading across customs frontiers the fact is the future of the united kingdom does not depend on our future prosperity is not depend on membership in the

before christmas we had the government and the bank of england urging business to ta ke the bank of englandrepare for a no—deal brexit and it seems manufacturers have been listening. it is clear from this survey that precautions are being taken personally with manufacturers buying up personally with manufacturers buying up raw materials and components at an almost unprecedented rate. they wa nt to an almost unprecedented rate. they want to avoid the kind of disruption that could happen in terms of the supply chain from things like lack of availability and price changes. on top of that they've also been producing more consumer goods from food to machinery to make sure there are no gaps on the shelf by eight oh. this has been a bit of buzz to activity in workshops and factories up activity in workshops and factories up and down the country but the report authors say you need to look beyond that as this is probably temporary and confidence amongst manufacturers is at its lowest for two years with people very anxious. a woman has died after falling 200 metres from their nevis on new year's day.

before goldman sachs bank of marconi he is refusing to give the venezuelan government its gold reserves back at the amazing it's up to the bank of england who they want to give or take gold from what do you think about the legitimacy of the bank of in-state theft. unacceptable and cannot be allowed to stand in my opinion i mean you know we talk about a sovereign nation here yes it's got its massive problems these problems have been exacerbated for the reasons i've already outlined but that does not justify taking this sort of action because that is only going to compound the problems and also points does it not towards the very real drive towards regime change to get their hands on the oil and then what we will see is potentially wholesale privatization and then we'll be back to potentially where we were before hugo chavez came to power in nineteen ninety eight ninety nine i believe it was and then we saw you know that pink tide the democratic bolivarian revolution which swept the continent i'm a huge improvements in the standard of living and quality of life for ordinary people across the continent of it as well let's also remember tha

we are going to begin with huw van steenis, bank of england senior advisor. bout him -- to speaking to him about anything but the themes of the bank. please stay with us. keene inlacqua and tom davos. this is "bloomberg." ♪ sebastian: this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get the business flash. iscater pharmaceuticals continuing to sell about $3 billion worth of emerging-market assets. the company is working with bank of america to gauge interest in medicines. it is trying to cut debt after shire.eover of investors of nintendo are starting to feel optimistic again. it has steep share declines. cuts arebility of boosting confidence. shares are up 22% since december. ei is bracing for the impact of being banned from five g networks. it has warned of job losses. it needs to give up mediocre employees and lower labor cost. that is the business flash. tom: thank you. at the world economic forum strong, we begin with someone who has a fabric of the history going back. huw van steenis was acclaimed that morgan stanley per investment banking and talking strategy and

the bank of england blocked maduro from taking his cold assets out of the bank of england. the u.s. rol of bank acts in the u.s. the u.s. is trying, led by john bolton, to get maduro to leave peacefully. >> i think that's the optimistic scenario. if that doesn't happen, i think the day is going to come where he ends up like the deck day or of romania. as long as he has the support of the army. but when that support starts to erode this thing could come teen end very fast. liz: russia has lent citgo billions of dollars. russia's vladimir putin is very upset with what's going on with citgo. it's the refiner of venezuela heady crude. venezuela sells 40% of its oil through citgo into the u.s. this is what the white house did today. the vendian people are cheering president trump. they are loving what he's doing. they are saying go after maduro and shut down his corrupt money flow. >> that's why you see nicolas maduro going state-owned tv trying to counter that message. understand that russia and iran have a lot to lose as well askew what if they don't have that socialist dictator there.

what does this mean for the bank of england's timetable on rate hikes if they do push it through to thend of march? and what are we seeing from currency traders in terms of positioning around the possibility of an extension of article 50 >> from the bank of england we don't expect them to move until at least the second quarter of this year, and that's assuming that there is a ratification of the brexit deal on the table or something similar in orderto avoid the risk after that a lot depends on the global economy we think it's weakening, and the risk is the bank of england has already reached the peak of its hiking cycle >> daniel, thank you so much that was the chief u.k. and senior global economist. our thanks also to padhraic garvey, global head of debt and rate strategy at ing >>> now, china is planning to lower its 2019 growth target according to a reuters report. this comes as the world's second largest economy faces head winds with a trade spat with the u.s. we talk about a lot as well as slowing domestic demand. according to reuters, beijing forecasts growth from 6 to 6.5%, down

bank shares some of the biggest banks were up more than one percent on wednesday reflecting some degree of taking those events in parliament in their stride but the governor of this place the bank of england mark carney has been speaking on wednesday saying that that market reaction shouldn't be overestimated and that in the next few weeks certainly he would expect the prevailing concern to continue and his worries or his warnings have been echoed by a lot of industry leaders listen to these for example the director general of the confederation of british industry caroline carolyn fairbairn she said every business will feel no deal is her telling closer a new plan is needed immediately this is now a time for our politicians to make history as leaders so despite some analysts saying that what happened on tuesday with that vote diminishes the chance of what people here in the city call the worst case scenario of a no deal breaks it others are saying well in fights this could mean that it's more likely we've ruled out her deal happening between now and march the twenty ninth now unless parliament comes up with something they can agree on that's the default position there are many other voice

but the big issue is what the bank of england will do on the back of all of this. in our considered view, it is that yields will stay low. you have seen them move up and down quite a bit recently. through november and december, you had a global rally in government bonds which kind of mirrored the risk off behavior you could see in credit and equities. price action we find ourselves talking about today is a response to some of those big moves you saw late last year. anchor 2: a very good morning to you. stop, brief, and think. i find it hard to do three things at once. reading some reports this morning they say fixed income pricing is a mess. is there a capacity for breakevens to trade higher? steven: they are very interesting right now. we can look at the u.k. and the u.s. as well as an example. it could be that the breakevens compressed, meaning they fell quite a lot in the back end of last year because of the global move towards risk. timewent down at the same that the credit spreads went wider. i think they were tarnished with the same brush. over the longer ter

deal for their future relationship with a hard exit now a distinct possibility the head of the bank of england fears businesses will not be prepared for the hard consequences of systems there are series of logistical issues that need to be solved and it's quite transparent that in many cases they're not so poor infrastructure is not there border infrastructure is not there to the extent that it would need to be for jumping from an absolutely seamless trading environment to one with friction. frictions that while inevitable some say must not be allowed to get in the way of more important long term issues for france's finance minister reinforcing europe is now on the priority front and we are far more concerned about the future of europe whole to be more united whole to have a strong continent between china and the us and then about to do it. and as the impasse continues in britain opinion among the other members of the e.u. over the union's future appears more divided than ever. and let's step away from davos and take a look at the markets in new york our correspondent yens korda is standing by

banking group in r.b.s. two of the biggest banks in the country were up around one point five percent. in the last couple of hours and we've heard from the bank of england governor mark carney in the last hour or so saying that he thinks the reaction really suggests. that people are now predicting that there will be some kind of an extension to the brics it deadline although he did out that he wouldn't put too much weight on short term market movements so for a bit more on what this all means i'm joined by jeremy nader city financial commentator jeremy exactly what should we make so far of the reaction i think it's interesting as you say we saw some wild volatility last night around about the time of the vote we lost two and a half cents against the dollar for sterling i would ask. and against the euro as well i think interesting enough the markets have now got back to where they were as you suggested but what this means is it means that we don't know that's the bottom line with no clarity we got the vote of no confidence today that labor said that they would force against the government they're not going to win that doesn't put us into any better posit

the bank of england is on hold.orget about february, maybe something by may, but you will see there is no near-term move expected from the boe. they are just like the federal reserve. >> the spike the chaos over brexit, the pound seems to be holding its ground. what have we heard from the eu? could there be an extension for the brexit deadline? >> they did say that. no unanimity. mark carney was speaking to a treasury committee hearing today. he said don't count on too much. there will be more volatility. he would not put too much weight on short-term moves. on hopes that article 50 wouldd and the prospect of no-deal may have been diminished. a prominent boe official and u.k. voice is saying look out. it is hard to say what the pound will do. we will see what happens next. >> kathleen hays with the latest on brexit. more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> netflix, amazon, hulu battle for streaming dominance. an upstart wants to up into the business. it is building a short form video library designed for mobile phones.

what we look for on the front end is what the bank of england forecasts. it is rate-sensitive. if a soft brexit happens, you have to expect the bank of england to raise rates possibly twice this year. and if we get a no deal brexit, they may have to possibly reverse it. they are moving on different masses. that wethe flattening have seen in the u.k. is set to continue. guy: ok. and you got the changes in terms of the way we calculate inflation. a lot of people talk about inflation linkers of playing one way of the brexit story. you are smirking. >> these things move around like you cannot believe. it is a very, very tricky market to trade. vonnie: marcus hunter, thank you. let's check in with courtney donohoe. >> house speaker nancy pelosi has fired the latest shot in the feud with president trump. the president trump barred pelosi from taking a military aircraft to afghanistan and suggested she fly commercial. pelosi believes that the white house leaked the travel plans. no response from the white house yet. more than 3000 workers at tesla will lose their jobs. in a letter to e

. >> the bank of england in the midst of all of this. ad, with some description, gets done. you expect a moderate normalization at 25 basis points or token nest -- tokenist normalization? basisould see may be two point hikes. >> taking that there into markets, with their be a -- in sterling? you look skeptical at the floor 125. maybe back to where we were at the beginning of the year, pushing 140. you could say 135. >> on a softer brexit deal, you could probably start scrambling around in the dust. james, thank you very much. thank you for joining us and sharing your thoughts on the market. n brent surges to its biggest weekly gain in more than two years. could that be -- could there be further to go given the recent slump? what are the opec members earning in 2018? is it all bad news in the oil market? we discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪ s is bloomberg. ♪ >> is 9:30 a.m. in dubai. we start the trading week in our markets are open. we're down to 30 minutes time. 30 -- let'sith the check in with the first word headlines. says he ist trump considering declaring a national emergen

the bank of england says it would weaken sterling and house prices and push the economy into recessionvernment of greece is -- and the after prime minister will call a confidence vote. it is the latest sign of political instability for the euro area. people are planning a confidence vote on wednesday that could end the left's for years in power. -- four years in power. arrested this man -- the chinese company acted before he entered a plea, saying the incident brought huawei into does review -- into disrepute. it has been under scrutiny from several western countries. huawei has rejected accusations, saying its products are safe. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am paul allen. this is bloomberg. shery: u.s. stocks were under amidste friday, but this progress with the trade talks with china and a dovish fed. we could see more momentum in asian trading. let's see how we are setting up with sophie kamaruddin. sophie: asian stocks could be set for a mixed start after capping the bes

and one more comment, bank of england governor, last week, in his first public comments this year, ifdeal is preached, bank of england forecasts moderate demand growth, slight positive, smooth transition for brexit means smaller hit to uk incomes, disruptive withdrawal which is what a lot don't want means more pessimism, further depreciation in the pound some market scenarios, morgan, and how the market reacts, the pound will be front and center when it comes to market reaction morgan, back to you. >> indeed it will. thank you for that dom chu at hq. >>> jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon doesn't think it will be a hard brexit the pound softening as we await the decision in a few hours. joining us, financial times u.s. managing editor, jillian ted great to speak with you. this has been a complicated one to follow in large part because of the what if scenarios in terms of how you cover this and think about it, what happens if as largely expected parliament votes down this deal? >> well, complicated sounds like british understatement frankly hellish. the reality is we don't know one of the reason

it reflects some of what the bank of england has been saying in figures as well. ter than i would. there are so many businesses who have been strapped in this world of not knowing do we jump, strapped in this world of not knowing do wejump, what strapped in this world of not knowing do we jump, what measures do we take, what sort of an outcome are we take, what sort of an outcome are we going to get? as every day goes by and it is still there, all that contingency that hasn't taken place is bound to frighten a business above. yellow indeed. i think at this time of the year when people are doing their budgets this will be weighing very heavily. people have been factoring in this for a very long time. markets attracted a certain amount of slowdown into this. the real concern is that the world may be on the brink of a more broad slowdown. that is where thinking about, david. let us move on to the gulf news. mike pompeo, on his tour, a major speech at the american university of cairo yesterday. the focus was pretty clear, it was about a ride as the big malevolent facto