i think the bank of england's job is maybe harder than the fed's job. what does the growth hit look like in the second half of the year? we don't know the answer to that question. you talk to economists right now, they are using their got at the moment. -- using their gut at the moment. the bank of england has to make a decision. we are now at 75 basis points. the other factor to run member here is that when we get to 1%, we are getting into the trigger territory for the bank to start quantitative tightening as well. that is another factor that we need to consider in terms of this. but certainly, judging by the two-year reaction at the moment, yield is down, pound down. the market is taking this as more dovish than it is abated. -- than anticipated. jonathan: not really saying with conviction what they will do next. let's think about where sterling has gone. we've gone from 50 basis points to 75 on the bank of england right, and sterling has come lower again. at the last meeting, 1.3598 present following a rate hike. what do you make of that? we start a

and the bank of england _ another. and the bank of england says _ another. england says inflation, i another. and the bank of. england says inflation, the rate at which prices rise, could be even higher at the end of the year and so has again hiked interest rates. the rates were at 0.5% after last month's rise and they were increased again to 0.75% though the bank suggested they would not go up as fast as it acted from here. last month the bank predict that inflation was already heading for 30 year highs above 7%, well above the bank's target of 2% but now after the invasion of ukraine, energy prices have gone even higher, pushing forecasts above eight and with the energy price caps had to go up again in october, that could top 10% by the end of the year. what you can see very clearly here and on household energy bills up and down the country is just the start of an energy price shock. the problem there is that both growth and the economy and prices going wrong direction. growth slowing, prices going up and up. the issue is that this could last many months mo

the bank of england response -- if the bank of england responds too aggressively, the war will break rate of recovery. economists are expecting a third straight rise from the bank of england, but the question is how big it will be. there are plenty behind me who are arguing that they need to frontload and tamp down on inflation expectations now, but there may be others in their who say that inflation is going to tame itself by weighing on-demand. there is not much a rate rise can do about the immediate crisis. bloomberg economics falls somewhere is in the middle. dani: are we likely to get any more details on quantitative tightening today? lizzy: we are getting closer to the market, and that is the minimum level that the bank has said it will start to deal with -- ed has also said it is not an automatic trigger, so i will hold for more details because it has also said it will not get back to sales in a time of economic stress. clearly the war in ukraine has created those. the guessing from the boe is that it is going to be extremely careful on this. this is something it has never had

they are pulling back from some of the more hawkish projections in terms of what the bank of england is going to have to do going forward because of the ukrainian conflict and what that will do to growth. at 8:30 we get a slew of data. got it in the united states including building permits, housing starts, and initial jobless claims are get this comes as fed chair jay powell talks about an extremely tight labor market. the unemployment rate falling near the lows we saw pre-pandemic, but still the percent -- the part as a patient rate lagging behind. how much is that the focus, how much slack is on the sidelines, waiting to get back in as dependent it clears and people need to refill their savings accounts? jonathan: people seem to think -- in a very short amount of time. this is not 2015 out to 2018. this is a different effort this time around. lisa: frankly, it is a labor market we don't fully understand. we don't know where everybody went. there are some explanations. we don't know how quickly people can come back. that reaction function in terms of wages not fully understood. the f

bank of _ passengers. katy austin, thank you very much. the bank of england i passengers. it's the third month in a row rates have gone up. our economics correspondent andy verity is outside the bank of england. this isn't much of a surprise, is it?— england. this isn't much of a surrise, is it? ., ., , , surprise, is it? no, most economists have been predicting _ surprise, is it? no, most economists have been predicting we _ surprise, is it? no, most economists have been predicting we would - surprise, is it? no, most economists have been predicting we would get i have been predicting we would get the third consecutive rate rise in a row. it's not a surprise given the current economic context. what the bank of england policymakers are saying is that there's been a succession of large shocks to the economy. you already knew about the pandemic, and after the global reopening of the economy, after that pandemic, there was a surge in demand and supply of basic commodities from petrol, oil, gas, to steel and wood, etc, didn't keep up to steel and wood, etc, didn't keep up with

the tone of the bank of england was most dovish than expecting last week. this week, we are turning to the fiscal side of things with the spring statement on wednesday. clearly, authorities are worried about the cost of living crisis. what are you expecting from the fiscal side and how does that factor into your investment strategy in the uk >> what we're seeing is very significant increase with energy costs. national insurance going up in april. all of these combine to severely impact income for a lot of families a very concerning situation. what do i think could happen on wednesday? people potentially cutting back on the excise i don't know whether there is other concrete measures with the governments still sticking to the national insurance which is due to come in for april what impact does that have on the consumer what we do know is the consumers save 200 billion pounds through the pandemic lloyds bank added $65 billion to the deposits over the last two years. coming into the situation, you know, we would have argued the uk consumer was in a robust posi

from the bank of england's perspective that is unlikely. there is evidence the gradualists are picking up. i wouldn't be surprised if today we see one vote for an unchanged giving the bank of england time to consider projections in the may meeting. we personally see three consecutive heights of 25 basis points through june and then we think it will pause. kailey: the note called this dating without commitment from the fed. the idea that it is giving credence to the market pricing that it will be more aggressive so that all of the hawkish and is potentially becomes priced in giving them room to be more dovish if they need to be. when they say that they are going to make it to 1.9% by year end, why might they not be able to do that? do you think they will do that? david: on balance we think they will be just short. why will they not be able to do that? what we just said. the fed needs to achieve a tightening of financial conditions to somewhat slow growth and take pressure out of the labor market and that was made clear. in a benign situation

let's talk about andrew bailey and l talk about andrew bailey and his team at the bank of england, yourill announce today? everyone is expecting it to follow bed and hike interest rates they have done that twice, we might be surprised the bank of england will remain on hold. the risk to inflation on hold. the risk to inflation on the war are two sided, in the near term commodity prices and energy will go up, if people engage in precautionary behaviour because of the fear factor that comes with war that may depress demand, it will be two months before we know what is more likely so it makes sense for central banks not to do anything for a while. you are saying _ do anything for a while. you are saying we _ do anything for a while. you are saying we should - do anything for a while. you are saying we should air on the side of caution, some criticising the bank of england for not being proactive sooner. i was there in the middle of last year when they should have hiked interest rates earlier, now the outlook for the economy is unclear and this may be a just inflationary event, it makes sen

to be the chief economist at the bank— to be the chief economist at the bank of— to be the chief economist at the bank of englands the fact that the cost of— bank of england, was the fact that the cost of living crisis makes tevetting _ the cost of living crisis makes levelling up all the more important. it is levelling up all the more important. it is those _ levelling up all the more important. it is those who are struggling the most _ it is those who are struggling the most in _ it is those who are struggling the most in society, those who do not have _ most in society, those who do not have the _ most in society, those who do not have the public services, the job opportunities, the disposable incomes, who all need the most help from the _ incomes, who all need the most help from the government and i have mps who represent this red wall of first—time tory elected constituencies in the north of england, they actually really liked this statement, because the increase in the _ this statement, because the increase in the national insurance threshold will help— in the national insurance threshold will help their v

the bank of england hikes 25 basis points. but the focus is on the risk of growth slowing down rather than the risk of rising inflation, almost a complete 180 of where we were with the fed. the chaos of the nickel market continues. we will talk more about that as we work our way through the hour. from london, i'm guy johnson. in today is gina martin adams in new york. alix steel is off. these markets make sense to you right now? does reaction to the fed make sense to you right now? equities in the united states up again today. gina: i think we priced in a lot of the action as we saw a decline in the u.s. markets in january, so the equity market was well prepared for what the fed had yesterday. we priced in more than wasn't dissipated before any tightening cycle we have seen since the 1970's, so it is a very rough start to equities. also, the narrative really shifted over the last few weeks on account of the ukraine-russia war. equities were starting to get very concerned about inflation, so this is a bit of relief that the fed

andrew bailey, the governor of the bank of england saying this is going _ of the bank of england sayingger single year energy price shocked and we've had in the _ energy price shocked and we've had in the nech— energy price shocked and we've had in the neck and 70s. in the 1970s, there _ in the neck and 70s. in the 1970s, there is— in the neck and 70s. in the 1970s, there is a — in the neck and 70s. in the 1970s, there is a series of rolling years facing _ there is a series of rolling years facing the — there is a series of rolling years facing the threat of stagnation which — facing the threat of stagnation which is — facing the threat of stagnation which is a very difficult place to be in _ which is a very difficult place to be in on — which is a very difficult place to be in on the get inflation could see of much _ be in on the get inflation could see of much demand chasing too little output _ of much demand chasing too little output. you have a situation where demand _ output. you have a situation where demand is — output. you have a situation where demand is weak but prices are sti

that's because the bank of england has increased the cost of borrowing, raising interest rates for theracker mortgages — will see an immediate rise in their monthly mortgage payments. in a statement, the bank said the war in ukraine had led to further big increases in energy and other commodity prices, including food prices. and it warned that "the effects of russia's invasion of ukraine would likely accentuate both the peak in inflation and the adverse impact on activity by intensifying the squeeze on household incomes." our economics correspondent andy verity told us — from outside the bank of england — that today's move had been expected: most economists have been predicting we would get the third consecutive rates rise in a row. it's not a surprise given that economic context. what the policy makers are saying today is there's been a succession of large shocks to the economy. you already knew about the pandemic of course and after the economy, after that pandemic there was a surge in demand and supply of basic commodities from petrol, oil, gas to steel and wood. it did not keep up

is much greater than the bank of england is forecasting. don't see the increase in the legendarye bank of england is forecasting. what we do see out of all the is the one at greatest risk for inflation anchor because the labor market is so tight. still we have a very tight economy growing. guy: he was talking about the cost of living earlier on. but he's been talking about the idea of this income squeeze is going to slow the economy down. but the consumer in this story will slowdown, you just can't get everything you want for the price you want and as a result of which you will see that real squeeze particularly at the bottom end in the middle part of the socioeconomic grouping and as a result of which that will slow the economy down so inflation is the tool that delivers what the bank of england needs. >> i don't buy into that argument. we don't see condition slowing down so much that we see job loss. i think we will still have tightening. those suffering crimping of their purchasing power. i think it will be borrowing after that. the u.k.

if you listen to the bank of england, inflation is going up of england, inflation is going up and up. many problems causing inflation, such as current war inflation, such as current war in the ukraine, the covid pandemic, supply chain problems. it is not a quick fix, is it? therefore, in his next budget, will he want to save resources for then? possibly, and you are absolutely right, it is not a quick fix, it is not something that the bank of england can do a huge amount about by raising interest rates. typically, rises and inflation are created ijy rises and inflation are created by demand pressure, so people spending too much or supply shocks. this is very much a supply shock and it is where inflation has come from one particular source, perhaps a particular source, perhaps a particular few sources such as food and energy, and it has come from overseas. so it isn't something easily solvable by the bank of england saying, "we will raise interest rates." that will increase your mortgage cost. they are in a bind. in the bank of england tries to offset it, then it means we have higher

it builds expectations that maybe you will get a fourth hike from the bank of england next month. they have hiked three times since december. the german tax is up, the cac also gaining 0.2%. let's see how things are playing out across assets. you had a number of fed speakers come out yesterday underscoring the more hawkish pivot. -- coming out and suggesting she's comfortable with 50 basis points. this the picture for the boj. we will have a look at the yen on the back of that. futures unchanged stateside. now, essentially range bound for u.s. futures. the fed commentary with the geopolitics as president biden goes to europe. the expectation is you will get more measures to constrain russia. this month alone, the yen has fallen around 5.5%. part of that is around the rate differential. the boj remaining supportive and the fed switching to a much more hawkish policy stands. gilts are in focus. rishi sunak, chancellor, unveiling that statement later today. we will get details on that. 70 basis point move year to date the u.k. 10 year. we will continue to watch that grind higher. the

when the bank of england governor said that a rate hike in the future might be appropriate instead of is likely as he has in the past, traders completely priced out the june rate hike and hans rally. -- bonds rallied. the bank of taiwan -- the central bank of taiwan the rate hike was unexpected. 25 basis points to 1.35%. they move in small increments. this was their first rate hike in 2011. they're looking at inflation. it sees the inflation rate over 2%. they also talked about the fed's recent tightening. they are probably worried about capital outflows or at least pressure on their currency and the commodity prices from the war in ukraine. not big move. not something that rippled anywhere, but it's interesting that even with low inflation and a low interest rate, the bank of taiwan felt they had to move out. haidi: when it comes to the bank of japan even if we get a bunch -- bump of inflation next month, the governor doesn't think that sustainable. >> the same question for everybody. if you have high inflation, if it is rising, what does it do? it pushes up prices but particularly i

the bank of england joins the federal reserve and hiking rates. w global central banks are fighting inflation and the ramifications of the ukraine war. and crypto investing. dan morehead has been sounding the alarm on the bubbles created by the fed. are some of those about to pop? and i will speak with the audi ceo about what the russian invasion means for the luxury carmaker's supply chain. and he will tell us what he expects to see in terms of the automotive business returning to some sense of normality. a quick check of what is happening in the markets. we have been bouncing back and forth between gains and losses. the s&p 500 up .4%. the two year yield coming down as investors -- the 10-year yield coming down as investors by the debt. -- buy the debt. we did see the 5 and 10 invert. 3's were just in-line. the bloomberg u.s. dollar index, 10 points down below 1200. it has come off substantially. nymex crude coming up substantially. 102.23 a barrel. commodities are being watched closely in today's session. as i mentioned, the bank of england is t

of action for central banks. the fed and the bank of england hiked rates. e oecd said central banks should focus on fighting inflation, leaving government to respond to counter the impact of the war in ukraine. >> owing to the war, europeans will in the short term confront higher inflation and lower economic growth. accordingly, the challenges facing monetary policy are changing. we are unlikely to return to the same inflation dynamics that we saw before the pandemic. >> this is a moment for fiscal policymakers. what we are seeing now is a hit to consumers of energy and also food and that needs to be addressed with fiscal measures. >> we have as a result begun adjusting policy that when the necessary conditions are satisfied, we can take additional steps toward policy normalization. >> the horrible war in ukraine has made one thing clear, we need to accelerate the transition toward renewable energy as much as possible. >> we have targeted a temporary measure for the lower income and lower and middle income class people. once a larger share of our energy dema

if we look at the bank of england, it will be a little bit more circumspect about rate increases as weo through this year because of the pressure on growth. at the last fed meeting, there came out -- the expectations for economic growth this year were reduced. no one concentrated on that. everyone concentrated on the seven rate increases according to that dot plot. dani: it is fascinating, the contrast between the boe and the fed. so fantastic to have you on this morning, william davies, global chief investment officer of columbia threaded needle investments, a timely conversation. coming up, millions of barrels of russian oil are finding a way to buyers after the country first invaded ukraine. we will have that story for you, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm dani burger in london. millions of barrels of russian oil are still finding their way to buyers almost one month after the country first invaded ukraine. that is tempering concerns that a sanctions backlash will all but choke off supply. joining us now is elizabeth low. crude has b

of the g20 central banks are due to meet this week. we are talking about a potential rate hike in the bank of england, the bank of japan are firmly on the easing path. we have the pboc, bloomberg economics is expecting them to cut the couple are further to free up more cash for banks -- triple r further to free up more cash for banks. haidi: the country has around 117 dollars. a default is imminent when it comes to the nation's debt. we see stock trading remain close in moscow but ruble trading, so much of the volatility indicated at this point, stronger than the dollar in offshore trading. there is speculation going into u.s. and china, high-level talks and what moscow is asking of beijing. even in the imf head saying that the russian sovereign default is no longer improbable. that would have counted with the assessment that it will not trigger a global financial crisis. shery: to delve into what is happening between washington and beijing because they are set for the first and person talks on ukraine. russia seeks a military assistance from china, let us bring in stephen, and others. let me start with you, what can we expect between t

thanks for joining us- — for the third time in four months the bank of england has raised interest ratess rates are at their highest level since the pandemic struck two years ago. the move is part of the bank's attempts to control the rise in the cost of living, with inflation expected to rise to over 8% by the end of the year. energy bills and food costs are increasing and there's concern the war in ukraine will have an added impact on prices. our economics editor faisal islam has more details. in ayrshire, this family—run coach company had just started to see the light but now price rises are hitting hard. this hasjumped injust the past few weeks. quite a lot to jump. it's the cold wind from russia's invasion of the ukraine that is now sending diesel prices surging to new records. all our holidays and day trips have been based on last year's fuel costs so now obviously with the escalation of fuel prices, to run these is really going to be a drain on resources. it's just been one crisis after another. and the bank of england said today it fears that inflation, the rate at which prices r

the bank of england has tempered its outlook for this. l be backed by eight out of nine policymakers. in a change from february, governor and would barely softened his word on more hikes. saying they may be appropriate. taiwan central banks raised its key interest rate by the most since 2008, listing at 25 basis points to contain rising inflation. it is the first rate hike since 2011 and the first time it has changed rates since early 2020 when it made a cut at the start of the pandemic. indonesian central bank has held its policy record low after his last cut in february. the london exchange says it will allow a price move of up to 12% after futures plunged by the maximum for a second day, prices dropped by a previous 8% limit after another glitchy start to lay the open and nickel futures handout -- have now dropped to 58% but only a few contracts have traded due to a lack of buyers. those are your first word headlines. and we will speak to a former member of the doj policy board who has been a critic of the stimulus policy. we will look

but the bank of encland's level in the uk. but the bank of england's inflation _ level in the uk. is putting interest rates up to try and stop the spending, bring down inflation. how difficult a job is that for them when you think if you push interest rates up it's gonna squeeze people leave a mark?— rates up it's gonna squeeze people leave a mark? , . , , leave a mark? they have put them up b more leave a mark? they have put them up by more than — leave a mark? they have put them up by more than we _ leave a mark? they have put them up by more than we expected _ leave a mark? they have put them up by more than we expected back i by more than we expected back in october. in part to reflect the fact that we are seeing notjust imported inflation but also growing domestic inflation but also growing domestic in the uk. energy prices are high at the moment, we do expect them to fall of the medium term. that helps to bring down inflation as we get beyond 2023 into the middle of the decade. inflation has a. growth falls below the bank of england. before returning to its 2% target over th

lisa: you were an economist at the bank of england, you understand the interplay of oil prices, growthmarkets can transpire. do you think they have gotten ahead of themselves in pricing out in the heels of this conflict? kamakshya: i was an economist with the bank of england many years ago, now a strategist at goldman sachs. i think the markets are trying to price a very uncertain situation. markets are implicitly making the assumption that the tightening of financial conditions that is needed to bring inflation down, some of that tightening is already being delivered by the move higher in commodity and oil prices. that is sort of what the market is pricing, why you see the interest rates, yields move down. my view is that you will still need to see some tightening especially in places where, as i said, the growth impact from this conflict may be limited, but the negative shots from oil prices to inflation may be meaningful. it is understandable why markets are doing what they are doing but i think it may be a bit too fast. i think you will see central banks in the near future continue

of coupons. and a busy week from global central banks. a fed rate decision, chairman powell news conference. thursday, bank of englandand then the bank of japan with its own rate decision on friday. earlier this week, the ecb had to cut its growth outlook and raise the inflation outlook. does the fed have to do the same thing on wednesday? winnie: i think that they do. i don't think that megan to needs to be quite the same as the ecb given the much more direct impact of energy commodity prices in the euro zone. the u.s. has more in play in terms of that inflationary pressure versus the deceleration in growth, but i expect a modest uptick in terms of the near term inflation expectations, slight downgrade in terms of growth. jonathan: zach, the former new york fed president bill dudley caught up with us and went through the forecast and said they are in fantasyland. do you think they are in fantasyland? i know that you do with the dot plots. zach: a lot has happened since their last summary of economic projections, so we look for a pretty materially increase in their inflation expectations for q4 this year, bring down

that was the message from the bank of england yesterday.st level since march 2020. the bank warned that inflation may reach 8% and possibly even higher in the coming months and the situation in ukraine is exacerbating an already precarious price situation. the central bank's policy setting committee said more interest rate rises might be appropriate in the coming months but they do expect inflation to, quote, fall bacterially once prices stop rising and the impact of inflation on household income starts to really sting. that's the path forward according to the bank of england right now. >> we heard from jerome powell he thought inflation would be with us in the united states through the summer. julianna tatelbaum, have a good weekend. >>> still ahead, a ruse or real diplomacy? i at love skepticism about the peace negotiations between ukraine and russia. we will have the latest on those talks next on "way too early." e talks next on "way too early." (vo) small businesses are joining the big switch. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ult

then it is the bank of england's turn. six hikes expected from the boe. dani: on friday we will have the bank of japan rate decision. there will be february cpi for the japanese economy. central banks in focus. coming up we are going to discuss the global risk on the agenda and several of the world's biggest central banks meet as we have been talking about here. we are going to get the latest from rabobank. manus: plus we speak to -- on the outlook for the luxury sector. the impact of war and sanctions. ♪ dani: it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." it is a busy week for global central banks and they are going to offer the biggest assessment of a changed world since russia's invasion of ukraine. you have the fed, boe, boj, all making policy decisions. manus: u.s. equity futures climbing. it is crunch time. trying to juggle central bank actions, the possibility of a russian default on its debt. jane fully as the head of fx strategy at rabobank -- jane foley is the head of fx strategy at rabobank. we are seeing a flurry of geopolitical conversations happening.

the bank of england has tempered itself or further rate hikes after lifting its rate hike for the. ke was backed by eight of nine policymakers. governor bailey soften his wording on more hikes. the boe is the first major central bank to bring rates back to pre-pandemic levels. taiwan's central bank has raised its key interest rate by the most since 2007, lifting it 25 basis points to contain rising inflation. this is taiwan's first rate hike since 2011 and the first time it has changed rates since early 2020 when it made a cut at the start of the pandemic. meanwhile, indonesia's central bank held its rate as expected, keeping it at a record low. rishaad: the type and look at the london metal exchange. it is saying it will allow price moves up to 12% after futures plunged by the maximum allowed for a second straight day. let's take a look at what is going on and bring in james thornhill. walk us through how this trading day unfolded on thursday and what the prospects are for moving ahead now as well. james: sure. it was another chaotic day. the initial start of trading was delayed. s

more pressure on household finances, as the bank of england raises interest rates to 0.75% — the thirdise in four months. and, a family united at last. the zaghari—ratcliffes, together again. and coming up on the bbc news channel, some big hitting from ben stokes helps him pass his century for england on the second day of the second test against the west indies. good evening and welcome to the bbc news at six from lviv in western ukraine. we begin the programme tonight on the front line with ukrainian troops in kharkiv, the country's second city. it is in ruins after relentless russian bombardment, but against the odds, the ukrainian army is continuing to hold off the russian advance. our correspondent quentin sommerville and camera journalist darren conway have been following the ukrainan army as, over three weeks into this war, they defend kharkiv. you may find some of the images in their report distressing. russia says it is the militarising ukraine. instead, it is creating a wasteland. what it cannot have, it destroys with vengeance. these were family homes on the edge of kharkiv,

bank of - bills. that is what makes it such a | tough call for the bank of england. utious to reduce the risk of hurting the economy. a real delicate balancing act that they have. good morning. here's the problem. the cost of living is rising at its fastest rate for three decades. prices were 5.5% more expensive last month than they were a year earlier. remember, that's an average — so for some things the rises were even higher. and experts think the worst is yet to come. inflation could go above 7% in the next few months. to put that in context, the bank of england target is to keep it atjust 2%. we are way off that. there's a number of reasons. as economies woke up from the pandemic, fuel prices, material costs and the supermarket shop all went up. now war in ukraine is pushing energy bills even higher. the issue is wages aren't keeping up. in fact, they're going down at the sharpest rate in seven years, and households could be £1,000 worse off this year. these shoppers in corby told us about the pressures they're facing. we've got a family of six so, you know, just

of central banks meeting this week. not only ours to most likely raise on wednesday and also going to have the bank of england and the ecbthe bunds. also on pace -- actually closed. sixth session in a row with a higher yield a fresh 39-month high yield close. and if you look at the other central bank meeting, bank of england look to raise for the third consecutive time closing at 1.59. a fresh 40-month high yield close back to halloween of 2018. jgb, this chart back to 2016 because this past january they made the highest yield right around 23 basis points and slipped a bit. not only not raising rates but continue to continue to try to control the yield curve and interest rates and boat load of etfs back to you. >> significant global breakouts. thank you. week after hitting the high over $130 a birl, oil below $100 today. how did it close pippa? >> oil prices are under pressure and building on the declines which was the worst week since november there are key factors. talks between russia and ukraine and new covid lockdowns in china which could dent demand. this is the first demand scare in a little bit and the action bey

— forecast to be double the bank of england's targets, and yet the prime mirrister— england's targetsday we learned that inflation has reached 6.2% and is expected to go higher in the coming — is expected to go higher in the coming months. people are rightly looking _ coming months. people are rightly looking to — coming months. people are rightly looking to their government to help them _ looking to their government to help them weather this storm. labour will support— them weather this storm. labour will support sensible measures to ease this pressure, but what the chancellor has announced today says everything _ chancellor has announced today says everything we need to know about his priorities _ everything we need to know about his priorities. the cost of living crisis — priorities. the cost of living crisis is _ priorities. the cost of living crisis is hitting people particularly hard because income has been squeezed during the last 12 years— been squeezed during the last 12 years of— been squeezed during the last 12 years of conservative governments. ordinary— years of conservat

reserve raising interest rates for the first time since december 2018 and we're expecting the bank of englandfollow suit, the third interest rate in a row from the bank should it happen and most expecting the bank to raise interest rates from half of 1% to three quarters of 1%, however there may be an outside chance that it may go higher, the bank has never raised rates by half a percent since 1997 but came close last month. it will only take one more member to vote the other way and we so woo have had a half point -- so we would have had a half point rise last month. but the vast majority of economists here expect a rate rise this lunchtime. why? inflation is running at nearly three times the bank's target rank of 2%. currently it is 5.5%. that was a february, a january figure and we get the february figure next wednesday. that of course, as we say, way above what the bank's target rate is at 2%. currently running at the highest level since march, 1992. and it's a tricky decision for the bank because obviously the war in ukraine has let the commodity price fight across the area, oil, metals,

how it is necessary to work from a military point of view with central banks, their function, but when they first appeared, the bank of england created by the bank of france by napoleon, so the essence of the analysis is that in the event of a military political conflict, this is an endless source of resources. that is, you can endlessly attract the funds you need napoleon with money has never been a problem. he, as it were, studied this the question is probably the first. although not an economist, but, the problem with the americans is that they exhausted this source even before the military-political crisis began to grow in the world. these are the conflicts, in particular the conflict in ukraine, they have exhausted this mechanism. they spent it for no purpose. in terms of just this analysis that count lascaze left us, who wrote it down for napoleon, well, uh, we just talked about the fact that the united states cannot even provide its own well-being, but europe suffers to a much greater extent from the hybrid war that is now waging and today spoke very clearly about this, vladimir putin, let's listen. judging by the stat

the financial times and the bank of england. 30 seconds, will come back to it later but your part tworb inflation but they are still buying historical levels at very low rates. her only back to pre—pandemic levels. the policy committee in my view is going to take much tougher action if it's going to get inflation under control in the coming years. at the moment it's forecast to hit high single digits. it could get into double digits. it could get into double digits. and it could be around certainly not transitory any more as some were claiming as recently as six months ago. i think tougher action is going to be needed. mi action is going to be needed. all right. as you said, ukraine will be coming up and we will do that in the next addition at 1130. matthew and annabel will be back again at 11:30 goodbye for now. thank you for watching us. good evening... a dramatic night of premier league action. they beat newcastle 1—0 with the 99th winner seems a wild celebration. the game was stopped just after the break when a protester tied himself to the goalpost. a protester tied himself to th

running at rates that are above the level consistent with the mpc inflation target, so i expect the bank of englandse to raise rates at its next policy meeting , but we might see a shallower and slower hiking cycle here in the u.k. kriti: one of the concerns in the last couple of months has been this divergence in policy between the united states and europe and between the chinese central bank as well. i'm curious now, with the introduction of the russian invasion into ukraine which does that mean in terms of the policy divergence between the united states and europe, when you do start to see europe? does that change the playbook at any point? katharine: i think it does. we also have to remember that europe going into the conflict was in a good place in terms of the economic recovery. it was strong. the labor market in europe is strong. so that is a bit of a saving grace going into the conflict, but we should not get ahead of ourselves. europe, unlike what we see in the u.s., has economic activity at levels that are really quite some way below the potential, and this conflict is likely to slow the

bank of canada to raise rates. it will have very little power to control. matt: are the rate hikes we are getting from canada, the fed, the bank of england, are they going todown growth to the extent that we get a recession in 2023? frances: that depends on how much they go. that is the whole purpose of hiking interest rates, to cool demand so that your demand-supply imbalances change. the problem is usually the fed is hiking into strength. this time it is hiking into declining activity. if they really want to engineer a soft landing, three to four hikes. recession probabilities will climb even more, so once again, our recession outlook is dependent on a bunch of people in a room. i love models, not a psychologist. it becomes difficult for us. matt: thanks for joining us, frances donald, man u life global chief economist, not a psychologist, but a good strategist. we are looking at markets -- this morning we had a much more bullish picture. right now the s&p is down a third of a percent. the nasdaq tech stocks underperforming, down more than 1%. jon: investors cautious about holding stocks into the weekend. matt: for jon erlichman, i'm matt miller. bloombe

like the bank of italy or the bank of england. we may have a bit of strain. issue is what happens to credit spread? we are seeing credit spread wide and in and of bank stocks, in particular the european names. that is where you are starting to see a bit of the stress. the reason why it is widening. john: stagflation has come up in this conversation, looking at that possibility as well. given the situation in ukraine and the concerns in europe as well, should we be getting ready for differing opinions coming from different central banks around the world after what felt like a path for central banks globally doors higher interest rates before we were talking about -- globally higher interest rates before we were talking about this? >> the price hike is off at the table, german audios below on the 10 year -- bond yields below on the 10 year. the ecb is letting inflation run and little bit hot. central banks have these problems, the central banks can really control the demand side of the equation of this supply and demand equation. even if demand slows, the reaso

the bank of england follows thursday. money markets are betting on more than 100 basis points of hikes by june. in asia, central banks from japan, indonesia, and taiwan. it is some of this rate differential expectations being felt across markets especially with the japanese yen at a five-year low. we have expectations for widening yield differentials with the fed expected to hike by at least 25 basis points. budget, the doj is continuing its easing stent the -- the boj is continuing its easing stance. the dollar is back at around levels we have not seen since 2020. we have some losses when it comes to the aussie and kiwi dollars last week. we are watching some key data points including australia's february jobs numbers not to mention new zealand's fourth-quarter gdp. >> let's get more on the outlook for the dollar. we continue to see one of the drivers being the amount of progress or lack of progress made between ukraine and russia in these ongoing rounds of talks. let's bring in sean callow, the senior currency strategist

and bank of england and what does it mean for fed? gas, oil, incredible, the kind of increase we saw in gas and oil in the last 10 day or so. iron ore also fully supported. we look at some of the b haven bids. the swiss franc 0.9268. what is interesting is because of all of these big moves we saw on commodities and some of the corrections in equities we are seeing a couple of the currencies get slammed. s&p down .8%. nickel. this is a crazy story because that was big short. i tweeted out something on social media looking at nickel at $100,000. this was short-lived because they see thunder and lightning live -- thesethings can unwind . nickel currently 66.3% higher. russia threatening to cut off its natural gas suppliers from nordstream one. it could drive consumer prices higher. goldman sachs managing director of equity strategy sharon bell and lynn thomas in. thank you for joining us. if we look at what we're seeing now, because of elevated oil prices, no sierches abaight. what does it mean for stocks? is it the right time to get out

not to even talk about the fact that the bank of england has bought up 40% of the debt.e a political construct, because he doesn't want to act, and that's the thing i don't understand against the biggest cost of living crisis we've seen in decades. we've got to remember the big picture is the government - is still borrowing many billions of pounds, and the public- finances are still reeling - from the impact of the pandemic, when the treasury, i think, - very quickly and very effectively stepped in with huge sums to support the economy with _ the furlough scheme. so it's clearly not the case that this treasury and thisj chancellor aren't willing to step in _ i think he is very conscious that he'sjust had the pandemic, - still borrowing a huge amount, and the national debt is a lot, i lot higher than it was, _ and he is a very focused on the fact that he needs to try - and get that under control. look, of course, i think we all wish there was more money available i to help with the cost of living. we know that particularly these energy prices and food price - increases ar

but now the bank of england is saying that they do expect inflation to peak at 8%, higher than its previousn wage price spiral that may embed and becomes much harder to stop inflation. we've got some pictures now which show people sheltering in the theatre in mariupol which authorities in ukraine say has been bombed by russian forces. this footage is from a week ago — the 10th of march — but it gives you an idea of what it was like for the people hiding in that building. mariupol�*s deputy mayor has told the bbc that between one thousand and 1,200 people had sought refuge in the building. it's unclear how many have been killed or injured but a local mp said many had been gathered in the basement, which appears to have withstood the bombing. it's understood there are survivors, but emergency workers are struggling to reach them due to continued shelling. ukraine says the building was targeted by russia despite large messages on the ground warning that children were present being visible from the sky. moscow denies targeting the theatre. that has caused a huge shock around the world. the fact

if we look at that statement from the bank of england last week, yes, they did hike interest rates, bututlook was fairly pessimistic. they talked about slower growth, rising unemployment by the end of the year. that is becoming reality right now. what we see in the consumer confidence data this morning in the u.k. is plunging levels of confidence. retail sales far lower than expected. this is the impact on the consumer from rising inflation. finally it is having that impact on containing demand which will bring prices down. kailey: you mentioned the boe tightening, the fed tightening, the ecb may get there. the boj is not moving. you are seeing that widening divergence. where does it stop? jane: there is a lot of momentum behind there, more than i anticipated. i had expected 1.20. 1.22 has taken me by surprise. there are a couple of aspects here. the bank of japan remains extremely dovish. japan is a massive energy importer. if you look at the pattern that we see in g10 countries, energy exporting countries performing really well, and the commodities importing, the japanese at the botto

the bank of england has raised interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. e global reopening of the economy, after that pandemic, there was a surge in demand and supply of basic commodities from petrol, oil, gas, to steel and wood, etc, didn't keep up with that surging demand, and when you don't get supply matching demand, that's when you get price rises, so we've had inflation all around the world. in the united states that 7.9%. the latest measure here was 5.5% on the consumer prices index, but the bank of england is predicting in the second quarter of this year inflation will get up to 8% at its peak and possibly higher later in the year, so those global inflationary pressures exacerbated by the war in ukraine are certainly likely to see interest rates rise even more, perhaps up to 2% by the end of year. now it's time for a look at the weather with chris fawkes. hello there. the weather is looking largely dry over the next week or so as high pressure begins to build but before we get there today we have a few showers and notice this narrow band of rain cr

the bank of england meeting thursday is where they expect to raise interest rates. how much to the talk about that they are seeing perhaps 10% inflation at a time of slowing growth was central banks hiking into a decline in how much does it feed into some sort of fiscal support? at 8:30 a.m., we get the u.s. pci. it should come in about 10%. how much does this give you a feeling we haven't gotten there yet as far as inflationary pressure. the polish and slovenian prime minister heading to ky the center of aiv, to give their support and give a sense that they get the threat and they take it very seriously from vladimir putin. jonathan: talking about china, there is a seven hour meeting between jake sullivan, the national security advisor and china's top diplomat, a seven hour meeting and very little information on what happened in that meeting. the csi 300 is down by 4.6% and the hang seng is down by almost six percentage points. equities in china are getting hammered for more than one reason. there are lockdowns that we haven't talked about. tom: seven hour meetings

you have the reaction to the bank of england s&p nasdaq this morning. manus: you never babble. y gundlach has a cash word. he is wondering if $200 of oil -- $200 per barrel of oil. cable up. nobody voted for 50 basis points. the pound tanked and then recovered. what will kuroda do to take the yen lower? the dollar higher. the belly of the curve. i will not be rounding up. dani: you did have some ids. well, you asked for it. on a more serious note, let's return to our top story today and for the past few weeks. the war in ukraine. president biden is set to tell xi jinping that the u.s. will, quote, imposed costs if beijing backs russia. the call is due to to take place this morning. let's bring in bruce einhorn. what does the u.s. think china is doing regarding willingness to help russia? >> when president biden speaks with president xi, he's going to try to get president xi to back away from support for russia. antony blinken said yesterday the u.s. is concerned that china is considering directly assisting russia with military assistance in ukraine. u.s. officials also think chi

level of near zero this would be the fed's first interest rate hike since december of 2018 the bank of englandng on the tightening earlier and is expected to hike the main rate for the third time in a row. guys, i still have a little bit of a problem understanding at this point why rising interest rates is the right response to a supply side spike in inflation the argument is, of course, there is post-covid lockdown demand response which is also exacerbating inflationary pressure how can we have a cost of living crisis where the consumer is struggling with higher prices of raw materials and commodities and food and so on and at the same time be concerned that excess demand is driving inflation higher and therefore central banks have to hike interest rates either this is a supply side issue or demand issue. i'm not sure i have clarity or the central banks provided sufficient clarity to justify moving interest rates much higher at this stage steve, i don't know if you want to weigh in. >> again, i bow to the eco economists who told us inflation is transitory. the issue is the longer term effects

it is the bank of england indicating that. it's i saying 8-10%. it is the bank of. talking to public sector workers, this was— talking to public sector workers, this wasjust a talking to public sector workers, this was just a one—off freakish thing. — this was just a one—off freakish thing. itll— this was just a one—off freakish thing, it'll go back to normal quickly _ thing, it'll go back to normal quickly. that is not the forecast now _ quickly. that is not the forecast now it — quickly. that is not the forecast now it will _ quickly. that is not the forecast now. it will stay like this until the end — now. it will stay like this until the end of— now. it will stay like this until the end of the year so difficult to resist _ the end of the year so difficult to resist demands for some extra generosity above, say, the inflation target _ generosity above, say, the inflation target of— generosity above, say, the inflation target of 2%. the generosity above, say, the inflation target of 296-— target of 2%. the reason there is ressure target of 2%. the reason there is pr

. >> the bank of england, sitting near the london campus of the bank of england did start earlier thanajor central banks around the world haven't done anything more than the fed is done. the ecb is slower to ask. if you are concerned about 0 rates, negative rates for a number of years. i think the fed is moving, should move a little faster perhaps but so many uncertainties related to the virus and all these uncertainties related to the war, i can understand having caution but the central banks started earlier, the one that is kind of in the lead. neil: great talking to you again. the former head of the federal reserve board of governors, economics professor. the new york times is reporting estonia, latvia, and lithuania expelled ten diplomats from russia that the foreign ministers are confirming each of the baltic countries. bulgaria declared russian diplomats are persona non grata and gave them 72 hours to get out. more after this. rding. i earn 3% cash back at drugstores with chase freedom unlimited. that means i earn on my bug spray and my sunscreen. you ready to go fishing? i got t