>> hopefully barnier oes persist and get his reform through.t is interesting when you look at the magnitude of the debate and size of the budget and compare that deficit with what is acceptable on the other side of the atlantic, it just shows you the political differences with europe and the u.s. right now. so, i think the hope is it will get through as opposed to fear which is depressing markets a little bit is if there is a no confidence that goes wrong. i think in the background, dan, we have seen this movie before. we saw it back -- back when we came out with the do whatever it takes from the ecb back over 12 years ago. i suppose the market will also look to maybe the ecb at some point in time if this does get into the more fearful phase where the bond yields go up wider so the ecb can accelerate to protect the system as it did. >> okay. you think this could also potentially factor in the ecb decision making process here? walk me through the ecb expectations as we track through next year and is it reasonable to expect this pace of cuts to c

she is the kingmaker in parliament, given michel barnier does not have a majority. she has some red lines the budget. she doesn't want to see prices of medicine rise, for example. she said she wants more measures to cut spending on immigration. she is totally against raising taxes again on electricity. there will clearly be negotiations over the next few days and weeks. potentially michel barnier could face first vote of no-confidence as soon as next week on the social security part of the budget. if he manages to survive next week, we are looking at the week just before christmas which is going to be the deadline for the budget. it's all a game of chicken. one of the ministers who is in charge of the relations between the government and the parliament said over the past couple days, we are like turkeys waiting for christmas. kriti: an apt analogy on thanksgiving. we thank you so much for walking us through the french story. that is something that's having rippling effects across the markets. we've seen that in the bond market. those wives against the german debt st

barnier is announcing a law and immigration.he ink not even dry yet it is announced there will be more measures. >> president hollande talked about the differences with macron he was his protege, but he was critical about the unfunded tax cuts and all of the ing that has been done the past few years. as he was saying in the book shop in london here, the french book shop because he was signing his book called "the challenge of government. we talked about the history of the left he said the left is the victim of its own decisions it's its own worst enemy asked about the loss of the democrats in the u.s. and whether there were lessons that he could draw from them losing the election in the u.s. >> translator: the populists tried to make the popular classes and working classes believe by being protected and closed borders, they ill be able to keep their jobs. it is a misty if i indication. they will be a loss of growth and investment it is true the democrats did not argue they supported the power of the working class finally, the mi

that is why michel barnier and his government are trying to reach these negotiations and it has beenuite difficult. we know this government very much depends on the support of the far right group. marine le pen has had a vote of no confidence earlier this year and the far right did not support it. that's why the government did not fall. there will be a first vote on the budget next week. listening to the tone from marine le pen, she is making her tone tougher. the budget as it is does not support it. that's why we're seeing some of the moves starting on the market that maybe this government might fall soon. the question is what's next? the national assembly will stay the same whether the government falls or not. the national assembly will remain the same. as difficult to come up with some compromise and measures to try to tackle the deficit. the issues are at play at the moment and the next couple weeks. it is interesting to hear from the finance minister speaking this morning on tv and saying that you cannot compare france to greece after the moves on the bond market yesterday. >> t

the question would be if barnier were to do that, how would you fund it.ris. we have until monday. people work over the weekend. i would expect there to be likely more movement over the weekend, people showing up on news shows and talking about what they might or might not do. i think this will go down to the way because in politics it generally does. no one really has an incentive to change paths or swerve in this game of chicken between marine le pen or michel barnier until we get to the last minute. hopefully they won't actually crash, but you never know. paul: this headline from bloomberg tells you all you need to know. french yields close in on italy with safe market image in ruins. boy, financial markets signaling their concern here. at the end of the day, is there incentive for these two sides to come together, or could a worst-case scenario unfold on monday? alan: it's a good question. two things. one, it's funny, french prime minister michel barnier is a little bit excessive in his terminology, just like we might have been if we said confidence in

even if michelle barnier is able to pass this budget through parliament using a loophole, it could costnce job coming from la pen do you pass the budget but then lose the man who is supposed to be bringing stability to the market? tom: you have a focus on the planning of these markets. what is it telling you about -- about the risks being prized in to french french assets. >> you that chart that showed about the spread spread. 86 basis points. italian debt trades to germman -- german debt. we thought that would slow down. we know the periphery had the summer with tourism. the fact that from a blooming perspective, french bombs make more of the december supply. it's one of the biggest bond market. that's where we start to see the systemicness. but they might be coming down the road. >> there was a great quote from an asset buyer who bought french debt. we're looking at spain in italy right now. just to underscore what you've been telling us emanating out of the country, a story we continue to cross and monitor for you, the importance of that for these markets. gupta in the opening trade.

michelle barnier appears to be moving on one of them.viewers understand, the left is going to vote to oust barnier no matter what happens. the deciding vote ends up coming down to marine le pen. she's the king maker. if she says yes, i'm going to join a no confidence motion, he's out. if not, he remains. that gives her a lot of control. it appears that she is getting somewhere. again, is that enough to get her to fully back off? it's hard to say yet. if i were here, i would probably say, i won't vote, because there will be several no confidence motions. you still need to give me more before i vote on the last one. is that what she's actually going to do? i don't know yet. lizzy: where we've seen borrowing costs matching greece's for the first time ever, i wonder how important that is. is it a red herring or actually an marker? alan: i would say both in some ways. so there is a good amount of tension in the french bond market in particular. the french stock market as well, which has really underperformed other european and u.s. stock mark

prime minister michel barnier is facing a lose—lose situation.der pressure from the markets, on the one hand, to sort out france's perilous government finances and from political parties on the left and right, on the other, to ease the burden on working people. they are threatening to bring down the government in a no—confidence vote on monday. here's the scale of mr barnier�*s financial problem — he needs to make 60 billion euros in savings from tax rises and spending cuts. on thursday, he dropped plans to raise electricity taxes, but the far—right national rally says that's not enough. in a tv interview finance minister antoine armand warned they're risking pushing france into a financial crisis. translation: yes, we have a dilemma- _ translation: yes, we have a dilemma. there _ translation: yes, we have a dilemma. there are _ translation: yes, we have a dilemma. there are two - translation: yes, we have a dilemma. there are two parts. i dilemma. there are two parts. the verses is the path of responsibility, a budget saying is this budget perfe