we also expect to hear from lael brainard in a few minutes. the dollar kind of moving in the same direction but not with the same conviction. unchanged on the day, trying to figure out what cues to follow. nymex crude getting closer to $100 oil once again, higher by 1.4% on the day. one of the things that we mentioned, what the u.s. treasury is doing when it comes to the debt ceiling. they are taking special measures to avoid hitting the top of it. $31.4 trillion is what we are looking at. bloomberg caught up with some of the major leaders at the world economic forum to get their view about how dangerous this is. >> we will pay our debts, we always have, always will. how messy it will get, we don't know yet. >> people use the debt ceiling to make a point, and the point from the republican side is that we are spending too much money. >> i am not too concerned with that, they will deal with that issue. >> i really hope they get the job done and move the debt ceiling. >> politics will finally get to the right place on this. the other option is ju

sylvia burwell current president of american university brainard is an obvious pick.he worked as undersecretary to treasury during president obama's administration, she has deep knowledge on global economics and policy she's been on this show multiple times. the job is not to be chief economist for the president, it's a job to coordinate the flow of ideas and policy information and recommendations. so it's helpful to have someone with a broad range of experience in the position. but she made be needed more as the federal reserve vice chair as the fed walks a tightrope taming multi decade high inflation while not sinking the economy in recession ed mills, a washington policy analyst tells us this role is a step down. it's unusual for a vice chair or someone in leadership to go to the white house. and the real question, he says, is what the next job is that she wants. not what she gets. it's either treasury secretary or fed chair one research note out this morning thinks the brainard switch would be bearish for stocks stocks won't like it because she's been a dovish voi

>> well, i happen to agree with vice chair brainard.st want to throw out will, you had me at blackout, charles. [laughter] i'm so excited. anyways, best weekend ever. to vice chair brainard's point, daily job cuts.com, they track realtime business with closures. we're headed to 400 closures in the month of january alone. that's the run rate that we're seeing thus far this month. we're well over 50,000 announced layoffs and, by the way, charles, i'm not just talking about silicon valley. you're talking about the health care, home builders. it really is broadening out, and we're also in addition to that weakness in temporary workers, we're seeing hours worked come down. charles: right. >> and the way it works in economics is hours precedes bodies. companies are remiss to give up the employees because they had such a hard time getting them in this last cycle, but what they do initially is cut hours, and eventually move to the next step of cut bodies. charles: and we've seen a lot of cuts in temp workers which is a forward-looking indicator

but, at the moment, it seems like lael brainard is on the top of the shortlist.ng, the next question will be, so she takes this job, who becomes the number two at the fed and what shortlist i were looking at their, and who do you think they can get confirmed for the senate? guy: this creates an interesting situation. it makes the fed feel more political. am i reading this wrong? annmarie: i don't think so but lael brainard is respected as an economist on both sides of the aisle, but to think she is not political before she went into the fed is almost naÏve of some people. this is an individual who was on the shortlist to be the treasury secretary under the biden administration. that's political. she worked under the obama administration at treasury. she was the deputy director of nec under the clinton administration and worked in the treasury under clinton. there was pushback from republicans when she was on the fed. she gave a donation, a pretty small amount, but she did give a donation to the clinton, hillary clinton campaign in 2016. so she is already politica

speech, and that's why i think the brainard speech is important.one that says to me that they're aware of the very things that gilbert's talking about. what brainard does not do is take that extra step that gilbert just did and said, that should change my monetary policy and if you will very quickly, brian, take a look at the spread of officials and their 2023 rate forecast 17 of 19 are above 5%. only two or below. so even if brainard is a dove, she's still among that group that could only be in the 490 and higher for all of 2023 or for ending 2023. that's the doviest person that could be on the -- i'm not saying that, with i don't know it, but if she is a dove, all she is 490 so there's nobody on the fed that is in gilbert's camp here, and this idea that, hey, maybe we should be rethinking how far we go. >> gilbert, jump in. >> and the other thing, too, steve is i really think that they're losing some of the basic fundamentals of looking at money supply growth. if you look at money supply growth, it is growing at a negative rate. whether it's year

>> let's do and let's start with lael brainard. we do not share from her quite as much as we do other officials. she spoke today at the university of chicago event and she made it very clear that the fed policy stance is already in restrictive territory, inflation remains too high and the fed has more work to do. >> inflation has declined in recent months, but it is very high and it will take time and resolve to get it back. the federal reserve and central banks around the world have tightened policy considerably. >> interesting that she points out financial conditions. the minutes of the last meeting showed they were warning investors do not use financial conditions too much. she does still see tighter financial conditions. susan collins, another top fed official from boston, also spoke. she is in the camp up favoring 25 or 50. -- 25 over 50. she favors measured rate hikes at 25 basis points, but she still sees the funds rate meaning -- needing to go over 5%. many fed officials are echoing the baptist. -- that. a large number of e

first of all, brainard is the vice chair what we don't know, because she's sort of just recently becomepulling guard, to use a football metaphor, for powell or speaking her own book? there was a little disagreement between brainard and powell on how service price inflation can come down. she thinks the decline in oil prices and commodity prices and other input costs could bring down inflation without loosening up the job market much powell seems to be pointing that you have to loosen up the job market to get the service price inflation down she's a touch more dovish but there's not a whole lot of room between powell and brainard. waller has been ahead of the group in talking about the need to raise rates faster. and i think any give by a guy like waller, morgan, and this is where i agree with you in the premise of your question, any give on the dovish side by a guy like waller would be very influential. i'm not sure we'll hear that today, but that's why we do the interview. >> can't wait for that, steve. steve liesman. >>> despite this tough week for the markets, our next guest argues w

this is a demotion for lael brainard. i don't want to get into her potential decision-making and you can discuss they demotion. but there's another element to this. love your insight into this. brainard has been on the margins , dovish, yet she has been voting in mind but she has been raising issues about the balance of risks and the concern of overtaking and killing economic momentum. how compromised issue politically? how much does she create a liability for the federal reserve at a time of such controversy heading into a downturn for the central bank? annmarie: i understand there could be controversies with her name because now she is being discussed for a political job and she is a number two at what is seen as an apolitical job with the fed. but i really do not think -- she has not been picked yet. if she wants to be picked, then these questions become more important. but she has not chose yet. and i think at this moment, yes, these names you are reading out, jean sperling, his third time doing this job, these are po

who supports the pace of rate hikes to the traditional 25 basis points at the fed next meeting brainard is probing for the level of rates to be adequate to tame inflation let's discuss this with erin gibbs at main street asset management erin, finflation is a big problm and affects everybody. middle income and low-income americans. that's why it is a big deal. you have a lot of ceos and b bankers saying inflation has peaked what is the fed's next move >> we will see what wall street is predicting. we will see a lower pace you know, for those saying it looks like it peaked, it has been inst steady decline since june we can't get it down fast enough is the issue i think right now we're also drug the thie -- struggling with the fear of inflation which hits americans in the pocketbook and also recession the fears between inflation and recession and interest rates are really what is struggling and keeping the market focused on the macro effects rather than fundamentals and what companies are expected to perform. >> erin, we turned to you in the past a lot over the last several years to talk

i think of his chief of staff and the potential for lael brainard to take over.a of who will replace are on the federal reserve? annmarie: that is a question people are asking but so far there been no names thrown out as a short list. partially that is because they are still deciding whether or not it will be lael brainard to lead the national economic council. she is definitely the front runner, but also we are going into an fomc meeting, there is a blackout period. until she is announced you will not see any name circulate on who could take her spot. jonathan: we have the reporting suggesting she wants the job? annmarie: the fact that she is a top contender, admix and she probably does want the job. -- i think it makes sense she probably does want the job. since she is at the fed she is in a position to say it makes sense for me to stay here. she had a very good excuse if she wanted to stay. i would read the tea leaves as this is something she wants to do. jonathan: i don't think this is that controversial that lael brainard is going to this government. lisa: i

brainard says if you bring down the things that cause inflation, supply chain things, energy things, you will get to a place where the over services, service sector will come down. there's my famous map which shows the differential and how the fed and the market were apart in june, then they got together and separated again the market would not have the fed's latest -- it rejected the fed's latest outlook >> there are signs to every's point, but we are seeing prices behave in a way that is nothing like the tight conditions that prevailed for the past 12, 18 months even the tesla price cuts, the ford price cuts, for me, it feels like unemployment will be the last shoe to drop. >> nonfarm payroll on friday is expect the to be 200,000 the interest rate sensitive parts are responding, but broadly speaking this economy is just doing fine. if it continues to do fine and goes lower and lower on inflation, that is the best evidence of a support landing. >> tell me if i'm wrong about this what i want to see in the friday job's report is not so much the payroll number it's duration of employme

have a heart attack if you continue do that so far not having a haurt attack to be clear to lael brainard cease high interest rates ahead of fed meeting next two weeks possibles fed policies are affecting the economy here what is she says, quote either with recent moderation inflation remains high policy going to need tee sufficiently restrictive sometime many to make sure inflation returns to 2% sustained basis i ask you this question as fe raises rate we see economic destruction what we're seeing more layoffs google 12,000 jobs, gone, amazon, microsoft thousands of jobs, gone. do you agree with that policy right now. >> well, i am concerned about -- increasing interest rates, we've got dynamics in the economy that -- that i think create some accountability to begin with. and you know the fact that we have the o worker shortage the housing shortage that i hear about all the time, as i engage with constituents across my district, and even even beyond, so, i hesitate to think that we need higher interest rates. because that that can stand to do i think greater harm than would would be deli

i believe lael brainard at wesleyan did some tank training for rotc.hat source. day two of the brainerd mystery. i have seen some terse notes from economic pros, like adults, with the appropriate parchment they got the appropriate jobs, basically saying brainard is nuts if she gives up the vice chairman. discuss. >> i think it is up to opinion. lael brainard, her term is up at the fed early january 2026, so this will not do any harm for her. it also sets her up nicely for a potential future for a treasury secretary, right? we know she was on the short list to be the biden treasury secretary. he obviously went with janet yellen. >> lisa wants to getting here. what is the date calendar of a comfortable transition from yelling to brainard -- from yellen to brainaard? >> secretary ellen is committed to the job and wants to stay on is the report we have. potentially that could change. i don't think you will see a shift at the treasury until after the debt ceiling drama is over with, so that brings us to at least the fall of this year. >> let's talk about th

empire state manufacturing we got yesterday more fed speak on tap today with fed vice chair lail brainardoing to speak with fed governor chris waller, counsel of governor relations. the economy looks to be turning south, inflation is easing is it time for the fed to change its rate outlook carl, i'm watching this ten-year, which is 3.32 now. 3.03, that's where the ten-year was when powell stepped to the podium in jackson hole and shocked everybody and put rates up to 4.22 on the ten-year just 29 basis points of that tightening left from powell's speech in jackson hole. >> 100 basis points off the high that will be great tomorrow. talk to you in a bit. >>> our next guest says the bull market may be back calling for an uppier for the s&p and saying the global economy will not fall into recession this year ed, great to have you back appreciate the time. >> thank you, carl >> you were pretty early in saying inflation peaked. now you raised the prospect of a new bull market. has the data this week shaken your faith at all in that? >> a little bit. certainly looked more supportive of the recess

and finally, we will hear from two of the most influential fomc members, lael brainard, the vice chair williams, speaking tonight. the best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel and unprecedented debt sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world. global bond sales have hit nearly $600 billion in 2023 so far. what are we, january 19? wow. i'm joined by valerie. all of last year, the question was who was going to buy these bonds? and that dynamic has changed. >> changed quickly and it turns out everyone wants to buy these bonds. investors globally are gobbling up this issuance. we are seeing alongside a bond rally that is showing a strong demand behind these deals. yields are tasty and investors don't want to miss out after such a long era of low yields. look, i think they are probably looking ahead seen we are pricing in central bank cuts later in the year. investors are keen to lock in high yields while they can and perhaps the best place to hide out if we do see a global economic downturn is in these bonds. tom: tasty yields. the look pretty attractive. take u

tom: what is important about the brainard speech is where she did it. at chicago which is the height of economic acuity. what is important of -- is important is finding ambiguities in the debate and that is what she is addressing with the garbage phrase "soft landing". it drives the nuts. there are ambiguities out there we do not know and people like brainard cannot get there until we see the numbers. jonathan: a soft landing is just saying can we get inflation down without having too much unemployment. right now, unemployment is at 3.5%. tom: we have to get to our guest but my problem is this soft landing does not describe the socioeconomic structure of two thirds of america. two thirds of america in some firm -- performance flat on their back right now including 10,000 plus people at google. you are not having a soft landing because there is a group of people including tom pharaoh and -- jon ferro and tom keene who are living it large. jonathan: dr. l arian -- el_erian. tom: i can see a cambridge that they turn into wednesday this weekend and i will d

. >> the fed vice chair lael brainard says the chances of a soft landing is rising and without hitting employment >> it is possible that it continued moderation and output continued easing in the labor market and reduction inflation without a significant loss of employment policy will need to remain sufficiently restrictive for some time to make sure it gets down to 3% on the same basis >> morgan sstanley ceo doesn't see the fed cuts rates any time soon >> we were on the 75 basis tract. we quickly moved to 50 february 1st is 25 i could see them doing 25 followed by 25 followed by more. i don't see cutting. that is playing with fire to do what we have done with rates and then turn that quickly to a cut. you have to let this settle. >> to round out the top voices on the mountain, jamie dimon told us he sees rates continuing on the path higher and is ready for recession. >> the way we run the company is serve clients day in and day out. i know there will be recessions. i don't spend time worrying about it i worry about public policy and not about what the weather is like i don't want a re

reporting and netflix and key corp as well a number of fed speakers today susan collins and lael brainardestors get the look at the latest from the european central bank at 7:30 a.m >>> sticking with the trading day ahead. renewed recession worries and curbing stocks to start the year despite mounting concerns. our next guest is sticking with the bullish call for stocks through year end sam stovall is the cio at cfra his price target is 4575 that is the most bullish on wall street tracking the s&p 500. sam, thank you for being here. we have spent a lot of time talking about what seems as though is a consensus opinion among ceos and your peer strategists about recession or soft or hard landing for that reason, many have bearish forecasts. why are you bullish? >> good morning, dom first, the price target is a year from now or close to a year from now and a lot can happen. traditionally, after a market decline in one calendar year, the market is up more than 80% of the time in the subsequent year gaining 14% i think that because of the uncertainty that we are likely to be seeing noin the fir

what is interesting about brainard, steve, she acknowledges the problem, but acknowledges the stance that the fed has to keep at it on the path it is on. >> a little reporter's notebook. i read that speech yesterday which started off. the first line is inflation has been declining i thought she was going to have a little give in her outlook of policy there is a lot of stuff in there that makes you think if you didn't have the section on policy, you think here is the fed official that is loose ening up there is a lot of stuff in there. including a difference with powell about how service inflation comes down she is suggesting or powell says the way to do it is loosen up the job market she thinks all of the other prices coming down around it like fuel and goods prices could bring down service inflation maybe we don't have to loosen up the job market as much in the outlook for policy, she suggested getting to the restrictive level for some time. >> steve, thank you. look for the interview at 1:00 steve liesman. >>> stock of the morning is netflix. shares are surging after strong growth

bloomberg sources say fed vice chair lael brainard is the top contender to become head of the national council. she is one of several candidates. president biden has yet to make a decision on replacing brian deese, who has not set a date for his departure. the next had will advise biden as the economy flirts with session. -- with recession. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. paul: thanks, vonnie. we are going to get an outlook on tesla from deepwater asset manager gene munster as profits for the ev market the estimates. we hear why state street seniors strategists see troubles brewing in the u.s. market. this is bloomberg. kathleen: latest five year treasury note auction extending a winning streak for u.s. treasury bonds, reflecting investor appetite for good u.s. government debt. let's discuss this and more with marvin loh, senior macro strategist at state street global markets. auctions come and go. this one caught my eye. a lot of people are won

. >> unless brainard is starting to crack. >> and one thing to push a bit against jason's wisdom, which is wise -- there's nothing that tells some a change in the fed process for me to believe they're making the exact same mistake a year ago, with everybody holding hands hand singing "kumbaya" on transitory. >> jason >> listen, again, this is what you think they should do versus what they will do. the fed is very much of a phillips curve organization, which is a fancy way of say they spend a lot of time looking at labor markets. that's why, in my opinion, they made a mistake in thinking that inflation was transitory that may be one of the reasons why they're staying too tight now. but, again, my job with my clients is to try to figure out what's likely to happen. it's above my pay grade, you know -- paul has a legitimate shot at being on the fomc. i'm just a humble broker here, trying to help our clients i think they're going to make a mistake of being too tight i think they usually do, and it seems likely that's what's going to happen. >> yeah, they're going to be too tight. do they ha

beginnings of a labor market that is weakening, even the vice chairman of the federal reserve, lael brainard its weakening. this week we've got the federal reserve meeting on interest rates tuesday and wednesday. we will likely see the fed raise rates again. importantly, what the fed is going to be doing is raising rates less than it has in the past. it could could be 25 basis points, could be 50 basis points. that is down from the 75 basis points string of hikes we've seen in the last several months. sos that's one positive that the rate hikes perhaps are coming to a close at some point this year. but the labor market is a lagging indicator. meaning so far we continue to see job growth. that's going to he slow down ad growth overall, the gdp, while showing signs of growth is expected to turn negative this year. so we'll see. look, we all want a good economy. we all want job creation. unfortunately, all of the reckless spending that's come out of the democrat party and the white house has sent inflation to 40 year highs. that is a big nut to crack. it is cutting into margins and earnings gro

prices and retail sales point to decline last week christopher waller points to a increase and lael brainard says a softer landing could help a restrictive level. it doesn't favor a shift to the monetary policy and he thinks the fed should stay the course >> the inflation dynamics are not very encouraging what has happened is inflation has moved from the good sector to the services sector that is much harder to contain i'm in the very, very small camp who thinks they should not downshift to 25 basis points they should do 50. take advantage of the growth window we're in and they should take advantage of where the market is and try to tighten financial conditions i do think we still have an inflation issue. >> now european central bank president christine lagarde says the central bank will stay the course lagarde warned the ecb will quickly raise rates. on a speech on monday, lagarde said once interest rates reach restrictive levels, they will stay there as long as necessary. ecb policymakers appear split on future interest rate hikes on a 50 basis point increase which is widely expected next

tom: let's look back to the comments from lael brainard. when you read the details around the labor market and suggesting that maybe you can engineer a soft landing and this environment where the labor market doesn't have to break to get back towards that 2% target. how do you pull that in and tie that into the data we have been seeing whether retail sales, producer prices or the earnings front and get a clear assessment of what the trajectory as for the u.s. economy? christine: it's interesting. i seen a lot of commentary that the job market in the u.s. is turning weird because we have seen -- tom: weird? christine: exactly. that's what the experts call it. it's true because and a lot of ways it is potentially going to be a job recession if we get there by the very least it is still a quite tight labor market heading into a potential slowdown as indicated by all these other economic indicators. i think that would be the ideal for the fed is having to have the ability to engineer a slowdown and taking some heat out of the economy without ul

lael brainard and the potential new role in biden's economic council. what does it mean? annmarie: she is certainly on the shortlist and seems to be the top contender that could take on the role of ryan dees. he is set to exit at some point. nobody is leaving before the state of a -- the state of the union, but she would potentially be this person that would be one of the strongest economic forces around the president. a lot of questions, because obviously she is number two at the fed. they would have to fill that seat, but this is someone who knows the west wing. she was a deputy director of that job at the national economic council in prior administrations under the obama administration. also she worked at treasury. this is someone who really understands not just economic but also the politics, and right now she is one of those names. but still, interviews are ongoing. people like jean spurring, these other individuals being considered. kriti: a lot going on in washington, a lot going on across the atlantic. annmarie hordern, we thank you, as always. let's go back to th

lael brainard and john williams speak later today. these are heavyweights, see want to pay attention. president biden is going to california. he will be speaking about the impact of the recent extreme weather that we have seen on the states. and then we will have a big earnings story. art -- netflix. what picture will paint? that wraps things up or alex and me. we are going to bluebird radio. we will be talking about what is happening here in the u.k.. lots to talk about in terms of the data, but also what is happening in dabo's. we will break that down as well. this is bloomberg. or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh >> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is balance of power with david westin. >> welcome to balance of power. i am joe mathieu in for david westin who is reporting from davos. the debt ceiling has been a cloud hanging over this conference for t

fed reserve chair lael brainard on the central bank's next move.et's bring in our next guest, sieben harvey. thank you so much for joining this morning. i guess you could have said that brain already was a mixed bag. she talked about some of the economic weakness that has shown through but basically saying, we need time and resolve to get inflation back down to 2%. the wind has been taken out of the sales of the dollar. global assets are pricing in this move from the fed. have we gone too far with that? simon: i think so just in the short term. a lot of pressure coming through from this kind of diverse move into risk assets. we saw better european growth prospects. all of a sudden, the markets are ok. potentially looking to cut rates from the back end of the year. his prime conditions for us to try to recoup some of the losses we may have made budding against the dollar last year. i think it's very early. as the u.s. data comes through and starts to show the u.s. economy is shrinking, that will add to risk sentiment. we have to be very selective he

decline right there and people fixated on the yield curve and what that might mean let's get to lael brainard speaking at chicago. saying with recent moderation, inflation remains too high and rates need to stay high. that's essentially the party line for a while meanwhile, jpmorgan ceo, jamie diamond gave his rates during a cnbc interview in davos. >> i think rates will go higher than 5%. there's a lot of underlying inflation that won't go away so quick. >> joining us now is warren pies, co-founder of 314 research weighing in on a macro, warren, and how it plays into how markets are set up for this year our investors correct in feeling as if a fed pause is a potential all-clear for this market? >> well, great being here. thanks for having me i think that's what history tells us history tells us when the fed pauses, it's this goldilocks period across assets stocks have rallied across every fed pause except for 2000. that has key similarities for today. bonds rallied also during every fed pause going back to 1978 i think it makes sense to get revved up for it but you got to put this whole move

maria: is lael brainard going to take over for national economic council, he's reportedly stepping downng the president is strongly considering her. >> she got promoted, the vice chair of the fed. she was elevated. if i was advisings her, i would say she stays where se she is she is andwait for janet yellen. the journal is reporting it. she's very good, actually. >> it's not a thankless job right now, chair of the nec. >> i don't think so. my old boss was there. it's a very important role. it deals a lot with micro economics, not really macro. i'm not really sure if it fits her skill set as well as she has done on the monetary side. while see. maria: joe, it's great to get your insight. >> thank you. maria: quick break and thou shall not steal, this crime fighting nun was in the right place at the right time and see thwarted a robbery and she's here. you're watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. stay with us. ♪ sweet home alabama. ♪ where the skies are so blue. ♪ sweet home alabama. ♪ lord, i'm coming home to you.s al♪ like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. w

but off session lows after federal reserve vice chair lyle braynard did not go -- lael bray lael brainard started to flutter her wings in a a speech at the university of chicago's boot school of business. braynard if backing smaller rate hikes saying inflation is easing. the fed had says december's industrial production index pointed to a significant weakening in the manufacturing sector and that retail sales report pointed to a further moderation in consumer spending. so you put that together with this, start the default clock. the default deadline clock. the u.s. has officially hit the debt limit ceiling with the u.s. government now blocked from borrowing more money to pay its outstanding bills. plus, you've got recession fears bubbling up, so let's look at the markets. dow jones industrials kind of tried to make an early go of the green, hit resistance and is now adding 101 points to yesterday's to 613-point drop can. but at the lows of the session, the dow had been down 314. let's get to the famed fox business heat map, and do we have some green? yeah, we do. united health, chevron, m

lael brainard, she doesn't speak for everybody, they are interested in the incoming data. i thought they were dead set -- >> lael. >> bullard doesn't get a vote this year. >> that's a good point my point is a lot of people with varying degrees of views on all this >> larry summers has been interesting. in davos, he was speaking a bit more benignly in terms of things maybe we have a better shot of coming out of this without some severe recession he also made comments at the cnbc event where he was talking about how the one thing you don't want to do is fight inflation again. you need to snuff it out >> pandemic reopening. that is not what it -- we did print a lot of money you do see who has a vote? austin goolsby a squawk remembegular gets a vo? did you see what he said we had that eight-box. he said it took five people to replace me >> not wrong >> i had no answer for that. i want to come back with something and say -- >> he's a smart guy. >> i just said i have no answer. it took five people to get to your level of analysis and insight. >>> check out the shares of salesfor

lael brainard currently leads the short list to replace brian deese. on voting for monetary policy while you're being considered for an appointment like that? >> i would trust lael brainard to use wise judgment in this case she understands what's at stake here i'm a real fed friend and i would hate to see a superior fed leader leave i think she's got the best job in the world and i hate to see her give it up >> we'll see how that situation plays out. roger ferguson, we appreciate your time. steve liesman, thank you for joining us as well mike >>> coming up, jim cramer's first take on the trading day ahead and this week's slate of earnings it is the busiest week for s&p 500. "squawk box" will be right back. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton. hold for peyton. they'd huddle.... welcome to the peytonverse. such a visionary. game plan... you go. no, you go! and call audibles... double our investment in omaha! omaha! omaha! omaha! or you could use workday. omaha. the finance, hr and planning system used by over half of the fortune 500. for a be-agile-l

lael brainard the vice chair saying she does see some improvement on inflation, but not enough, not in camp. she sees inflation still too high, in fact, very high, and more rate hikes needed. john williams said the same kind of thing, there is more work to do. they see the peak coming, but it is not there yet. the boston fed official calling for the 2% downshift, but get the funds rate above 5%. let's move to christine lagarde in the ecb, she spoke today in an interview with bloomberg and davos, and i think she was saying in terms of where they are going, what we got from the minutes that is, that there is a big debate. they went into it and everybody expected 75 basis points as a hike because that is what the ecb hawks wanted, instead, 50 basis points, hefty, but still downshift. the chief economist according to minutes argued everybody to slow down and do 50. that would be enough now. the consensus because it was a compromise on the hawk said as long as christine lagarde says 50 basis points hikes are coming, they were willing to do the downshift was a going forward, i think economis

brainard is coming in. ron klain is out the door.harder left >> really? >> hard left that's the only thing that they can control. they lost the house of representatives, so they go real hard left. they're hard left. that's what's going to happen. that's one of the reasons why i think health care is not doing well >> i could see an argument otherwise. >> chief of staff saying they -- >> you could make a deal with klain. >> you could make a deal with the guy that's going to replace him. >> because he's a venture capitalist >> he's not a hard left. >> the agencies are hard left. they're going after a company that's been gone after already with the case lost, okay where the government lost. and they're reopening it david, double click was approved how many years ago >> best party maybe ever remember the google double click party? >> yeah, tit was approved a long long time ago when both companies were far smaller >> the lena khan piece which says, it's the rich have had a big run. i mean, like, yeah they have. >> let's move on and talk ab

and then brainard tomorrow that's the one people are watching but coming from bullard, who -- >> i loveeen a pretty sub botubborn hawk >> st. louis fed does the best, most rigorous work, and i have often felt that bullard, post-the 2015-2016 period where he was not as concerned as i was about what was going to happen >> you were feuding with bullard back then. >> bullard had a full head of hair, and i had nothing. that was really the issue. >> okay. just about that. got it >> i think that bullard is probably, again -- i think he's the guy. and i felt that way now for seven years. he does incredible work, and i'm glad to hear him say this, because the last thing -- i thought he was doing it with a six fed fund six fed fund david, you and i are saying, which one of us is not staying? we had to cut "squawk on the street" to two people. >> easy there. i mean, you do have mortgage rates now at 6.20, lowest since september, as you mentioned, jim. is that why names like home depot are leading the dow? >> i think so. you can't have "happy days are here again," but you have retail demand across

are people more on the lael brainard train?we seeing peeking out at 5% of that fed funds rate being baked into fed expectations today? i think any indication of what was underpinning a meeting that seemed to be a shift in tone for the federal reserve will give indication of how they're going to play this balance of risks. jonathan: looking for that clarity later. joining us a sarah hunt, chief market strategist at alpine saxon woods. i want to start with two names. apple is at 18 month lows and tesla started yesterday with the biggest one-day low going back to 2021. is there any broader signal out of those companies? sarah: good morning and happy new year. thank you for having me. i think there is specific things going on with tesla. apple has something to do with people have been looking for that as the last drop on the tech side. it was down quite a bit more than it had been until december. i think to the argument the market needs everything to go down before it starts to figure out where it is going next, that might be a goo

. >> -- the reports that president biden -- [inaudible] vice chair brainard as the next head of -- [inaudible] is there any timeline for that? >> look, i'll say this, don't have any personnel announcements to make, you know? president was, would love to see and wants to see brian deese stay as long as he can in the administration. i just -- and he has been here, as you all know, he's been many times to this podium, but he's been at the white house for more than two plus years and has been an integral part of the president's economic policy of building an economy from the bottom up, middle out. i just don't have any personnel announcements to make at i'm. thanks, everybody. [inaudible conversations] >> waiting for a senator to come to the floor to speak. off the floor lawmakers are working on committee assignments for the 118th congress, votes are needed for a final approval. house lawmakers are work on several bills including one commending anti-iranian government protesters and a measure to create a task force to review how pilots receive flight path data and other information. you can see l

lisa: lael brainard had a bigger influence on some of the rhetoric.ur conversation with troy gayeski where a lot of the big investors cannot forecast the macro world, neither can the fed. at what point does politics become a more preeminent concern than trying to game out a macro situation that is completely opaque? jonathan: you know what i would be happy to talk about a lot less? the sam bankman-fried story. sonali basak has dropped by. i am so sick of this story. sonali: i spent my new year's day reading all the indictments, so you and i both. there a lot of indictments for him and all of his deputies. we have not seen all of his deputies. the former alameda ceo is nowhere to be heard of or found. today he will be going to a manhattan court and pleading, we expect, not guilty. that draws this out for another year or so for you. this will take a long time should he plead not guilty to eight criminal counts. jonathan: talk to us about the timeline. sonali: should he plead not guilty there is a process in which you will go to court, it will take a lon

fed vice chair lael brainard is delivering a speech at 1:15 p.m. you can imagine the investors and traders will hang on every word trying to divine something from it all. >>> here we go again lawmakers facing a debt ceiling showdown as the country hits nearly $31.5 trillion. not a typo borrowing limit. the treasury expected to keep paying the bills with extraordinary measures without raising the debt ceiling, they could be on the verge of default if the extraordinary measures last until june, then i hesitate to say i'm not worried about t. -- about it we have seen this movie so many times. doesn't the wolf come eventually >> and nobody licestens? >> you hope that it will be han handled. i will tell you one thing. it is not resolved until the deadline. >> we have done it before. >> 120% debt-to-gdp. the people that don't want to do it are saying they are doing it for the good of the country. >> what do you think that number looks like >> how many? >> how many people in the house will make that >> how many do they need >> it has to be democrats and r