bullard. president trump yesterday signed an executive order he said would bring down the cost of health care all across the country. with this order, hospitals will be required to publish prices that reflect what people pay for services in a way that is straightforward and accessible to all. you will be able to price it among many different potential providers. you will get great pricing. prices will come down by numbers you will not believe. david: to take us to the president's order, we welcome back the secretary of hhs, alex a czar. -- alex azar. bring down prices like we will not believe. explain the president's order and how it will bring down prices. sec. azar: i think we will look back at this executive order as one of the major fundamental ships in american health care reform that we will have ever experienced. for your viewers and folks like us who understand markets and customers, you cannot have a market without price and quality information. ist the president is doing ordering us

bullard throwing cold water over the notion of a 50 basis point cut at the july meeting. the mood translated into the asian session overnight. cautious trading there you can see the picture for europe all of these indices are trading moderately in the red. just a touch below the flat line xetra dax down about a tenth of a percent taage point. thyssenkrupp, the german engineering company, right at the top of the stoxx 600 today, up about 4% on reports that the finnish company has made an offer for its elevator unit. lots of deal talk there. broadly speaking european markets are trading more cautious today in the session. switching to foreign exchange, to break it down further, euro is coming off some of the strength that we had the last couple of sessions 1.1350, still notably higher than where we were when the ecb had the sintra conference last week dollar/yen, yen trading on the back foot as we're seeing some pressure come off there. and a little bit of a more positive spin as we head into the g20. cable just shy of 1.27 the swiss index pretty much flat as well. let's ta

the fed president james bullard sees a rate cut soon. u.s.anufacturing sinks to the lowest under president trump. and the president hinting at a big trade deal as the country throws off the shackles of the european union. shery: let's get you started on a quick check of how the markets closed in the u.s. major indexes managed to finish on session lows but not a great day for the beginning of june after capping the worst month of the year. the s&p 500 fell 3/10 of 1%. we saw the biggest selloffs in facebook, amazon, apple and the tech giants over concerns of those antitrust investigations coming their way. we had some not so stellar economic data while the u.s. manufacturing pmi seeing the toughest month and 10 years. we have the dollar taking a hit. yields taking a hit on jim bullard's comments of a rate cut on the horizon. u.s. futures up to tenths of 1%. let's see how we are setting up for the asia open. paul: thanks. we got new zealand back trading today. catching up to do after monday's public holiday. a shade more than 1% following some

louis fed president james bullard. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: economics, finance, politics, this is "bloomberg: surveillance." but get straight to the bloomberg business flash in new york city. >> fedex says 2020 will be a quote transition year. it sees and improving outlook for e-commerce and the companies have already made progress with revenue per package over 2% but that is tempered by concerns trade tensions will worsen as china considers adding the courier to a list of unreliable entities. we have been very disappointed over the last few years with the assumptions that we made on the growth in international trade. particularly with the trump administration. francine: micron resumed some shipments to china's huawei. the largest maker of computer memory chips says a subset of products are not subject to the export ban. sales generate about 13% of micron's annual revenue. it was forced to halt to them after the trump administration added huawei to its blacklist. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: t

bullard says 50 basis point cut would be overdone. this doesn't sound like these two very important people on the fed are necessarily in line with where the market expects things to go next month >> i wonder if i disagree with you on that, scott the market pricing does expect a 25 basis point cut that's a good odds-on bet and a possibility of a 50. when i look at the way the market is priced i see a 78% of a 25 basis point cut that seems about right i think the real issue, scott, there's, by the way, september 68% chance of a 25 and an 18% chance of a 50 i think the fed does not quite know what it's going to do and that's because of all the things you guys are talking about if you can tell me exactly how the meet with xi and trump is going to go and how weak or strong the july jobs report is going to be and then tell me what's happening with gdp, i tell you what the fed is going to do. the fed is holding in reserve its options and possibilities because it's not quite clear how weak the economy is. i think joe is right the federal rese

bullard said he hopes fed action will straighten out the yield conser curve as well. interesting because it seems that bullard, one of the bigger perceived doves on wall street is now slightly more hawkish jay powell considered one of the more hawkish folks out there, saying maybe more accomodation is needed and pre-emptively. a muddling by two sitting and voting fed members >> you can see the market reaction there dow is down about 150 at the session lows down 118 dom, thanks. >> thank you very much powell saying trade and global growth are among the uncertainties. we have fresh data showing consumer confidence in the u.s. has fallen to near two-year lows home sales also down gold prices, six-year highs, and the ten-year treasury falling below 2% once again. what's the signal and is it time to get cautious. evan brown is at ubs asset management, and gabriella is global strategist with market funds. gabriella, do you agrew with mr. bullard that probably in total a half point cut by the end of the year is likely in order, called for? >> we do we think one or two rate c

we mayjames bullard says need to counter downside risks. could seeire said he rates going to zero over the next 18 months if the economy softens. referring to the president's threat, he said when the trump tweet went out, i went net flat and bought a bunch of treasuries. saysio of guggenheim things are getting really overbought and there is a vicious spike doubt in yields that is likely to be reversed in the near term. livee fed meeting in june for a rate cut? we are all there. tv on your bloomberg. joining us for the hour is a multi-asset portfolio manager at newton investment management. we have a range of views on where the bond market goes next. what is your view? paul: the fed is much more sensitive, and to the equity markets, then it has been historically. to the end of the year, we will o rate cuts.g -- tw that is looking to happen. coming into this year, we were expecting rate rises so that is quite a difference to where we were last year, so we think that is probably likely to happen to try and ensure the economy continues to

louis fed president james bullard.explained his thinking in an exclusive interview with bloomberg's kathleen hays. ard: inflation running low and inflation expectations running low, the economy is looking to slow down more sharply than we thought. seems like you better get inflation back up to target while you can. so that's why i thought we should cut here. also, by not cutting, now we are putting high probability on the july meeting. fellow committee members, but by not cutting, now we are putting high probability on the july meeting. generally speaking, i don't like that as a tactic, say that we won't do something this time but, don't worry, we will do the next time. i say, if you think the conditions are right today, go today. that's one of the reasons i dissented. kathleen: do you like an element? bullard: you are putting high probability on the next meeting. you are saying, not now but maybe next time but not maybe next time. it is very unclear what kinds of data the committee would be expecting to get during the

louiske said president ames bullard, but -- st. louis fed president james bullard.n low interest rates were similar to president trump. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. david: thank you so much. coming up, we discuss how investors are positioning for the fed's dovish shift. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: we heard yesterday from fed chair jay powell and st. louis fed president jim bullard. they had may be different messages for us. >> our thinking was to wait and see because so much of what happened happened a few weeks before the last meeting. reactanks are want to preemptively. >> 50 basis points would be overdone. i don't think the situation calls for that, but i would be willing to go 25 sitting here today. david: still with us is denise chisholm of fidelity. what i heard from chairman powell, weight. from bullard, let's go 25. what is the market hearing out of that? denise: i think the market clearly, from a

bullard said the timing was right for an insurance cut.he market was essentially disappointed that powell did not go further in his rhetoric. he warned on the downside on the economy. let's see what comes out of the g20. roll down to the bottom of the screen. the kiwi. if you wanted a dovish message, they given you everything. members agreed more monetary support is necessary. rates are going to be at 1% by the end of the year. you are squeezing out a little gain as so much dovish and this was priced in. good morning. nejra: good morning. the most dovish fomc official says that 50 bits in one go was to bungee. you see the reaction in rates. while the kiwi is the best performer against the dollar today, the yen is the worst. dollar-yen up in the first time since -- for three days. indexoomberg dollar strengthening for a second day. the dollar bouncing back a little from recent weakness. we saw u.s. equities drop yesterday for a third day. european equities as well. we see declines in global equities today. concerns about trade playing into

louis fed president james bullard apparently making some comments as we seek, causing markets to sell, saying apparently that doing a cut of 50 basis points in july would be overdone, in his words. he's a voting member, as we're told that's the move in the market that's we think is being traced to those comments from bullard we know the sensitivity around fed speakers, whether it's the fed itself or other big speakers what do you guys think about this >> i think we're addicted to favorable headlines. what was it, ten days ago steve liesman sat on this show and introduced the concept of a 50 basis points cut and everyone on the show said, oh, 50 basis points, we only thought it was a quarter steve said, well, no, if we're going to do it, we're going to go big, go big or about it home i think was the expression so ten days ago the market wasn't even thinking about 50 basis points now we're selling off -- >> because we're demanding 50 basis points >> but, but, but, we're not even 2% off the recent high you're partially right, joe, the market is saying you darn well better give us our qua

this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: this is daybreak -- bullard fed shape james -- fed chief james bullard says may need to be a rate cut soon. he said the trade war has had small affect so far but the implications for the u.s. and the global economy are a concern. it is the first time a senior fed official publicly suggested the need for a cut since rates were put on hold in january. couldwe eased now, we help re-center inflation expectations up a 2% target, which would be a good thing for fed credibility and the 2% credibility. it could also provide some insurance in case of a downturn -- in case the downturn in global growth was more severe than we had previously expected. of u.s. a measure manufacturing fell unexpectedly last month to its lowest in two and a half years. in a sign the trade war is a drag on the economy, the institute for supply management's index declined to 52.1 from 52 point eight, missing the median forecast of 53. that is the lowest level since president trump won the election in 2016. italian prime minister gs up a contact says haim may -- the italian prime minister say

bullard see? what should he be focused on? compared to the other dots that are seeing the move, maybe even a hike this year? >> i will push back a little bit powell that even jay said those who saw no rate cuts are definitely leaning towards it. i think it is a lot closer than just one guy against eight. i think they were very close to going today, but they see no inflation, they seek no inflation, they see no inflation, and they see global growth weakening. say it,ay, if i did not there's no inflation, and i do think that is a driving factor. it was with mario draghi yesterday with the ecb on stage and it is with the fed today. kathleen: i do think they had to cut that inflation forecast. stay right there. we will continue this conversation in a little bit. we will have more analysis on the fed's policy direction in the next hour. we will be joined by a former philadelphia fed president. paul: plenty more to come on the fed, but for now, let's go to first word news. su: we start with the united that saudiing arabia's crown pr

i would note bullard's on the dovish side of the spectrum.ng a lot lately about the potential need to cut rates in this environment you don't hear that from more of the core of the fed which is why i think steve liesman's interview tomorrow with vice chair clarida is so important sxwlp 10-year's gone down to 2.06%. it's continued its slide throughout the day in light of that when you've got the moves we've talked about in the big fang names, you've got this big headline, is that the market's not down even more is kind of amazing. the nasdaq's down sharply and near session lows on the s&p and the dow but the s&p is only down half a percent and banks are still higher today despite this yield cut move it's interesting you can dissect it any way you want depending on your market dogma you can look at that as bullish or bearish i look at it and say bullard's come out basically in favor of a rate cut which by the way i think is absolute madness. and the market's not really rallying on the back of that you wonder if the fed put is still in place by

even james bullard saying maybe there will be a rate cut. the pressure remains to the downside. liz: breaking news that we take right into this final hour of trade, is something happening as we head into the final 59 minutes that will make a rate cut all but certain, as charles just hinted. bond yields collapsing at this hour and now traders see a 98% chance the federal reserve in a defensive move will slice interest rates by december. now, on your screen, we are watching two developing stories at this hour. first, apple on the left, socked with news of an antitrust probe just as it holds its worldwide developers conference. president trump's next stop in his visit to the united kingdom is happening right now. you can see the crowds growing in london. >>> with apple, reuters reported just over an hour ago that the department of justice could include apple in a broad antitrust review of tech companies. it comes moments after apple trumpeted new features for its developers including major changes to its itunes service and to the face of the apple watch. more on that in just a mome

louis fed president jim bullard. natixis slightly higher, but spiking around 20 minutes ago. h2o, the fund at the center of the scandal, has seen massive outflows over the last few days. we are going to take a look at what this means for h2o in natixis, and what this means for european banking. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, on vonnie quinn. this is -- i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." guy: let's check in on the latest on natixis. the h2o asset management arm has decided to remove all entry fees across all funds until further notice, according to an email statement. the fund group also indicating that redemptions have markedly subsided, down to just $450 million today. but stick a look at what this means for the wider industry. joining us is jonathan tice of bloomberg intelligence, senior bank analyst. the outflows are slowing. i guess the question we are now left pondering is what happens .ext for h2o in natixis has everything that could be done been don

james bullard said today that rate cut may be warranted soon. that's a quote. bullard cited global trade tensions and weak inflation, and manyn wall street seemed to think the interest rate futures market may have already priced in several cuts this year. sm steve lie tells us, the looking at so something far worse. >> reporter: several forecasters are now convinced the u.s.ea economy isd for recession as a result of existing and 24re9end tariffs from the trump administration. citing rising trade protectionism,forecasters responding to a new survey fro the national association of business economics. it's up from 15% this year morgan stanley wrote in a report, quote, if trade tsions contin to escalate, we believe the global cycle will be in recession in three arters. kevin hassett indirectly said the new tariffs would hurt the u.s. economy. >> i can say if folks are tuning up theirodels to wor on it today, i think one of the things you see especially in the near term, the impacts are much larger on mexico than the u.s. i think the intent of this is to solve a ve

louis fed president james bullard. yesterday signed an executive order he said would bring down the cost of health care all across the country. with this order, hospitals will be required to publish prices that reflect what people pay for services in a way that is straightforward and accessible to all. you will be able to price it among many different potential providers. you will get great pricing. prices will come down by numbers you will not believe. david: to take us to the president's order, we welcome back the secretary of hhs, alex a czar. -- alex azar. bring down prices like we will not believe.

rishaad: the fed chair jerome powell and sit was fed president james bullard.aid he wasn't calling for a 50 point basis cut, he says 25% -- 25 point cut. our guest. in rbnz saying a lower official cash rate is needed if we continue to see central banks follow the fed, can we assume a weaker dollar? out the ubs views to start with. we expect the 50 basis point cut from the fed in july. we expect a 20 -- 25 basis point cut in august, and -- august from the rbnz. we expect a 50 basis point cut from the rba. rate cutsluding to complicates matters for the central banks. we saw the ecb move last week and now the rbnz indicating that rates would need to go lower before they go higher again. the rbnz have highlighted global risks, and it is key that these currencies can lean in to some u.s. dollar weakness, and the reason for that is because domestically, investment was highlighted by the rbnz and it is concerning to us that business confidence has been week for some time. we have a forecast for the kiwi dollar of around 65, and a forecast for the aussie dollar around

hays'shat was kathleen exclusive conversation with james bullard.let, we will look at international's dispute with the south korean government. dispute international's with the south korean government. this is bloomberg. ♪ let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. microsoft shares slumping on reports that the stock was called materially overvalued. thein expectations for company are too high. is the biggest one-day loss since january but the stock still had a strong month after the eight day rally that took it to record levels. shery: john flynn says the bank has not thought that the impact of the trade war. continuing tensions could lead to more customers spawning investment decisions. income, theting rapid inspection is given western democracies pause. >> when we get past trade, i think it is a broader desire to see china contained in some way. i think we will move into a chapter that covers technology and maybe a bifurcation of technology and technology standards. when this was consumed 17 years ago in south korea, it was su

kashkari not a voter, jim bullard a voter, we have a meeting in july. maybe it will be the trade deal if it gets back on track in osaka this weekend, boosting animal spirits but those are the big three on friday everybody has to understand what they are arguing and why. hays,all right, kathleen thank you for joining us. still to come our interview with malaysian prime minister, he discusses the trade war in response to accusations he is taking china's side. shery: gold just closed above $1400 an ounce, with its best week in three years. we will look at why it may not go that much higher. this is bloomberg. ♪ mberg. ♪ u.s.: counting down to the open on wall street the week ahead will focus on a fresh round of comments from fed members and meetings between president trump and xi jinping in osaka. su keenan joins us now. let's get started with how markets closed friday. it was volatile. su: it had to do with the quadruple witching, contacts and the iran tensions turning cold water on the risk on rally for most of the week. the energy stocks were among the

we asked james bullard about the size of a potential reduction.i think 50 basis points could be overdone. i don't think the situation really calls for that, but i would be willing to do 25 today. things can change by the time get there -- you get there. >> there may be summer pre-from next round of china tariffs. the u.s. is reporting willing to suspend duties as the u.s. and washington a restart trade talks. it may be announced after the meeting with president trump and xi jinping at the g20 summit. overwhelming force, that is what president trump has threatened iran with if it attacks the u.s.. tensions continue to flare between the two nations with the president warning the islamic republic of obliteration. last week, trump abruptly canceled airstrikes. time, clean energy supply more of america's electricity and then coal according -- than coal according to april data. generated 68.5y million megawatt hours of power, the most clean energy the u.s. has ever made. global news, 24 hours a day on air, on tictoc, and on twitter, powered by more than

bullard wanted to cut the benchmark rate 25 basis points. for next year the fed pen -- pencils in one rate cut. fomc drops the patient language and adds that the fed will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion of the fed sees longer run federal funds rate dropping from 2.8% to 2.5%. on inflation the fed closely monitoring inflation at it point. the forecast is for headline inflation to fall 1.5% this year. the fed sees core inflation slipping to 1.8%. then in 2021 the fed sees a reversal, inflation rising back to 2%. on gdp the fed forecast as 2.1% in 2019. the fed lowered outlook for unemployment this year to 3.6%. the fed sees the labor market as strong right now but they say the rising economy at a moderate rate. now the data shows that consumer spending picked up but business investment softened. fed sees uncertain forecast of economy, jobs, ininflation. very interesting statement but no rate cut today. looking at one fed president or one fed vote away from a rate cut this year. two fed votes away from two rate cuts this year. back

bullard shooting that down.e the advantage being at forefront of the housing market, top economist at the same time. we had dismal housing numbers. new home sales down second month in a row. lennar warned earnings are worse than anticipated. pricing power is gone. where is the actual state of the economy? >> that is an important point, right? we had the weakest, new home sales in five months. in those five months mortgage rates have been down 1%. so i think that the problems that the economy is facing are not going to get fixed by rate cuts, right? i can't think of a sector where right now the availability of credit or the price of credit is hinderance to economic activity. so we have bigger structural issues that go beyond rate cuts. so i think even if we do get a rate cut, i don't think that suggests that the economy is going to accelerate unless we fix these other problems. charles: mortgage rates are down. couple blips on applications here and there, nothing sustained. if this doesn't get the housing market

bullard said we don't need a 50-point cut. those were all positives. it's still g20, the market's nervous and i think that's why. liz: one five-second response, phil. >> i'm not going to argue with them. they're the best. liz: you guys are all the best. john, phil, ira, thank you so much. >>> when we come back, the one, the only, yes, art laffer. ronald reagan's economist and now what does he think about the tariff wars and could they be the tipping point for the u.s. economy to possibly derail? it all started under this buttonwood tree. twenty-four people came together to sign an agreement that created the stock exchange. just the right elements coming together. it started when scores more people came together, just down the street and traded bonds that helped pay for the revolution, and the nation it created. it started in an office on the corner where the right people witnessed the telegraph and brought information and humanity together forever. it started with the markets, bringing together steel and buildings and silicon and medicine and rockets.

caroline: what'd you make of bullard today? is saying 50 is too much.do a 25 basis point cut. that underscores the confusion about why we are doing this, but also how much of an emergency are we facing with markets the way they are, volatility low. do we need to do that 50 basis point cut? that reopens this conversation of why you are doing it in the first place. romaine: thank you. matt bosler. still shiningd bright. why are next guesses had a change of heart on the commodity. this is bloomberg. ♪ romaine: a quick earnings recap. , revenue fell within what analysts were expecting. the company will have a conference call later today with their annual forecast. the ceo did say they are seeing early signs of improvement. fedex shares lower as well. they got an annual earnings forecast that trailed what most analysts were looking for. were looking for more commentary on him with regards to trade, but right now some softness following their earnings release. joe: one thing that is looking nice as gold, showing no signs of stopping its rally, a six-year high

louis fed president james bullard. the need to re-center inflation. these comments marked the first time a fed official has publicly suggested the need for a cut since the central bank put rates on hold in january. treasuries look overbought as the global bond rally pushes yields to multiyear lows. that's according to scott menard, chief investment officer of guggenheim partners. meanwhile, billionaires stand dragon miller -- stan drakenmuller said he piled into treasuries as the trade war between the u.s. and china escalated. angela merkel has won her government some breathing space. her junior coalition partner agreed to stay on board despite the turbulent resignation of its chief. the departure for the poor results for the party in european elections. if the spd leaves, it would alone,erkel to govern seek new allies or call snap elections. australia has cut interest rates for the first time in almost three years, to guard against a darkening global backdrop and an attempt to control inflation at home. this is the re

louis we welcome all of you from theon -- james bullard of st.ondon. speaking today will be jerome powell, the chairman of the fed. this will be exceptionally important as a speech, more than the average importance as we go to our june 19 meeting. .ichael mckee is in chicago right now, let us go to 10 downing street. the first lady, president, and prime minister. it is an intimate location, isn't it? francine: downing street is quite intimate. most of the walls are yellow. when you go into the staircase, it looks like you are in someone's house. it is more understated. you arrive in the reception room where we see the president and first lady. yesterday, there was controversy from the u.k. press that there were not be a one-on-one meeting of the president and the prime minister. if you think about it, it is unusual. this was a raged ages ago. the private -- arranged ages ago. the prime minister is kind of a prime. -- lame-duck and has no influence on policy. she cannot even have an impact on huawei. our i would point out to american audience, to

we had jim bullard out with the trial balloon of, hey, i think we could probably cut rates relativelyoon. market didn't react. at least in my view, when it came out, market didn't react. if we start to get other fed governs making comments like that, the market will price this in and if the market goes up on that they cut in june i think it's positive in the relatively short-term >> i just make one point i'm not an economist and his case about '95 may be true it's a totally different global economy now. think about what are we trying to do with nafta and globalization and all these trade issues, it's a different economy. tech has changed everything so i'm not sure that is a great analogy. i'll just make this point. if grow back and look in the last 20 years, we talked about this the other night on the somehow, in 2000, 2001 when the fed started cutting rates to offset slower growth around the world, when they started doing it again in '08 this was not good for risk assets it just wasn't if we're at that place again, i think you want to have less exposure >> bond yields went to 207 on

>> i think that it is a bit of both bullard was not bullish. market was expecting one thing, not the other. and micron is after the bell, so people are getting ahead of that people so either earnings or semis, chicken or the egg there, but that took us down. >> something the bears point to, semiconductors are traditionally a tell on the economy and they are not at record highs. i think that they are still in correction >> so if you had to poll everyone now within the marketplace, people are going to err on the side of growth is slowing. can't find anyone that says growth is ratcheting up. so these have been the bull's-eye for growthand they have been your cautionary tale thus far within the marketplace and with g-20 and with china and everything all encompassing. >> microsoft also suffering. ten year back below 2% all factoring into the selloff let's drill into the big stories. we are dom, bob pisani, rick santelli and diana olick, and meg tirrell. and leslie picker has more on why this time should be different for allergan dom, let's start wit

louis fed president jim bullard. then at 1:00 p.m. york time, jerome powell speaks on his outlook for the federal reserve and monetary policy. we will bring you that speech live. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york come on vonnie quinn. this is -- from new york, on vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." time for your latest bloomberg business flash. spacex launched its falcon heavy rocket for the u.s. military today. it carried 24 satellites for the space agency, the pentagon, and other partners. spacex founder elon musk called it the company's most difficult launch ever. it's two side boosters were recovered. apple is expanding its footprint in seattle. the company's leasing space not far from amazon's headquarters. apple says over the next five years, it will bring an extra 2000 workers to the seattle area. microsoft cofounder bill gates says his biggest mistake ever came in mobile phone software. gates told david rubenstein at a bloomberg washington event that microsoft lost out to go

louis fed president james bullard released a statement on his dissent.st appropriate action. he is worried about poor and headline pce measures declining substantially. an important interview with d clarida. -- richard clarida. joining us now is michael mckee and bill lee is still with us. two central banks still believe they have an impact on inflation? michael: they do. it has been a tradition for fed officials who dissent to release a statement on friday morning and explain themselves. onhad jim bullard dissent wednesday, the first one of jay powell's chairmanship. bullard saying the market is or 50g 40 or 50 is -- 40 basis points below the target, so lowering the target range for the federal funds rate would provide insurance against in expectedines inflation and a slowing economy subject to elevated downside risks. more rapidomote a return of inflation expectations to target. he is building his case around inflation and the fact that the fed can push it up. francine: we definitely saw the dollar drop after the move was amplified by bullard's dissent

louis fed president james bullard.his thinking in an exclusive interview with bloomberg's kathleen hays. well andion running inflation expectations running low, the economy is looking to slow down more sharply than we thought. seems like you better get inflation back up to target while you can. that's why i thought we should cut here. , now we are cutting putting high probability on the july meeting. i don't like that is a tactic. that we won't do something this time but, don't worry, we will do the next time. if these think the conditions are right today, go today. >> do you like an element? >> you are putting high probability on the next meeting. unclear what kinds of data the committee would be expecting to get during the intermediate. talk of a 50 basis point cut his ladder now. are you on board with that? >> sitting your today, 50 basis points would be overdone. i don't think the situation calls for that. i would be willing to go 25 today. i hate to prejudge meetings. things can change by the time you get there. i

jim bullard also talking about how it is a good time for insurance rate cut. that means some action in the bond market into the equity market, a lot of people are saying we getting defensive here with the risk off rally. we are not getting defensive, just more sensitive to the rate -- rate markets. with the bond markets, those are off from the 52 week high. financials off anywhere from 5% to 6% on the 52 week highs support those moves inversely to the rate market. may be defensive and may be more tied to the big movements we see in the bond market. >> in the bond market and indeed in the dollar, all continuing to wet investors appetite. again today. that $1400 and ounce. talking about the sessions on iran and any uncertainty around trade, one strategists saying if the talks do not go well, we could be looking at gold 14 and 18, that could be an play. take a look. they suggested is overbought. >> we have to stick with another central bank. 25 basis points to interest rates, would be enough in a sharper than expected slowdown. >> it is surprising given that the

bullard. rushys we are in no big but we need to be preemptive.nition, aren't you preemptive only if you move early? >> yes and no. the first thing is we should start with what chairman powell said. chairman matters way more than any regional bank president matters. what people should be paying attention to is what does the chairman think. i took from that statement that he was in a veiled way saying he thought the economy was doing pretty well and it was only the later developments like the threat of trade war and stuff was putting this danger back on the table. so that's why he wants to preempt recession but he doesn't want to move until we actually see what's going to happen. say in some sense let's they came up with a trade deal at the g20 meeting then maybe the fed wouldn't have to move. that was the reading between the lines of what i took from that. personally i don't know if that's true. i think the economy has been on path to slowing down a bit. cooling off a bit. was surprisedng i last year.of david: a lot of people seem to say that mayb

ideally, they would probably like to do 25, listening to the likes of jim bullard yesterday. vonnie: kathleen hays also asked him about forward guidance. i thought it was interesting that he complained that he didn't like the turned the central bank was taking in not moving this time, but signaling very clearly that they will go in july. his forward guidance broken? chris: i don't think so. i think the fed is looking at everything that is available in the data points. earlier in the year, it wasn't clear that the trade pressure had really come to rest back in the u.s. i think in q2 -- in the u.s. i think in q2, that has changed. you could say that they are reacting at the right time in terms of turning more dovish. i think what we found with the likes of the bank of japan and ecb was forward guidance, the storyet so trapped in a and perhaps you don't have more to offer. but the fed, with rates so high, they got plenty of room to cut rates and perhaps even start kiwi again should they need to -- start qe again should they need to. vonnie: it is clear that countries on the peri

unwinding some of that >> yes i talk and we're going to look at intra day of two year 167, 168 and bullard basically said 50 is too aggressive, it started. the testimony that hit, the keynote of mr. powell definitely moved this a rittlittle bit the ten year moved over 2% and the dollar index, as you pointed out was up fifth of a cent it all gained nicely it all makes sense we can talk about easing and i look at it as the fed has nine-quarter point insurance rate hikes to think they'll give two way and one move 50 basis point. certainly it could happen. the market has it built in i know that chorus my own personal belief that you're not going to get a 50 and the context of the times we're living in are different. now, whether they ease at all is another conversation to be had and i think chairman powell at least texts i have seen without q and a moves in a line that is under consideration and still not necessarily a foregone conclusion and if it doesn't occur at the next meeting, maybe it's about time that the markets have to meet with their maker with regard to what they built in and what

they removed the "p" word, alicia, added closely monitor, said we'll act as appropriate and bullard had a dovish dissent. >> i would say july is on the table here and i think that it's very reasonable to think there are two cuts this year with this change in the dot. it's very clear the fed is really looking to ensure the expansion continues, and it's positive for the market. this is what the market needed to see the rates market is pricing this in so this is all in sync so pretty good -- it's a good statement for the market. >> we were saying that the fed was going to walk a high wire act, basically, this afternoon in terms of navigating the markets. and, you know, the statement did it quite well in that it adopted the language that jerome powell used in chicago. seems to satisfy the markets, at least for now. we have a positive bias to the markets, but still largely unchanged. david? >> well, yeah. i think the stock market may like this in the short run but i think we're in some dangerous territory here first of all, two wrongs don't make a right and it's inappropriate to have a overl

. >> sunday night on q and a, historian candace bullard talks about the early military career of winston churchill in her book hero of the empire, a daring escape and the making of winston churchill. me a regiment. i want to go and i want to fight. he ends up going with a regiment on the day it fell to the british and takes over the prison, and he frees the men who had been his fellow prisoners. he puts in the present his former jailers and he watches as the flag is torn down and the union jack is wasted in its place. >> sunday night at 8:00 eastern on c-span's q and a. next, democratic presidential candidate senator elizabeth warren of massachusetts talking invoters at a house party new hampshire. this is just under an hour. [applause] sen. warren: thank you, hello. hello, wyndham. it is great to see you. you are really in the sun. i will do my best. i'm so glad to see all of you. let me start by saying, there are other things to be doing on a beautiful friday afternoon. it is gorgeous out here, but our country is in real trouble. not just a

jay powell speaking in new york alongside john williams, raphael bostic, and jim bullard.nesday, u.s. durable goods and confidence data. the fed releasing the results of our two of its bank stress tests. stress tests out of spain. friday, the g20 kicking off in osaka, japan. greg peters, are andy chorlton, krishna memani. final thoughts on the market in where you see this coming? greg: it's a really treacherous and difficult market to navigate. lots of crosscurrents, lots of things that we don't have a good handle on, i.e. politics, g20. volatile, andppy, it is really dependent on big zogenix factors. people havethe year had in fixed income, do no harm for the next six months, and let things play out. much more cautious in interview this morning. a lot of stuff i don't know right now. that is not a bad place to be to admit it. krishna: five more years, moderating growth. supporting a policy of outcomes on a global basis. what is not to like other than the uncertainties? jonathan: let's get to the rapidfire round. first question, high-yield spreads, around 350 basis points.

louis -- bullard saying now seems like an insurance rate cut, but that a 50 basis pnt may be overdone. he said he does see 50 basis points worth of cuts by the end the year in total. he said he hopes fed action will straighten out the yield curve asinwell. i'm d chu. >> the president has been very vocal about his thoughts on interest rates. today, he coureportedlyn aid on ag believed the u.s. dollar is still too strong and feels the situation could be eased if the fed lowered interest rates. alo orecast for lower rates along with growing tensions between iran and the united states saw investors piling intm safe havendities like gold, which today hit a six ear >> speaking of which, when we look at how the various markets have been performing, stocks, ll they're near time highs, which suggest long-term growth, but intert rate are near three-year lows, which suggest a slow down and despite readings, gold is now at this secure high. scottations joins us to talk about this. he's president and chiefst innt officer at nation shares. good to see you. thanks for joining us tonight. >> thanks v

himself, fed chair jay powell speaking in new york alongside john williams, raphael bostic, and jim bullardwednesday, u.s. durable goods and consumer confidence data in germany and france. on thursday, the fed releasing the results of our two of its bank stress tests. stress tests out of spain. finally, friday, the main event, drumroll -- the g20 kicking off in osaka, japan. still with us are greg peters, andy chorlton, krishna memani. let's start with you, greg. final thoughts on the market and where you see this going? greg: it's a really treacherous and difficult market to navigate, to be honest with you. there is lots of crosscurrents, lots of things that we don't have a good handle on, i.e. politics, g20. how that's going to play out. i think it is going to be choppy, volatile, and it is really dependent on big exogenous factors. jonathan: andy? andy: given the year people have had in fixed income so far, do no harm for the next few months and let things play out. much more cautious in interviews this morning. saying there is a lot of stuff i don't know right now. that is not a bad pla

bullard said he wanted the central bank to approve an insurance rate cut this week as a guard againstr growth and low inflation. the vice chair said that the case for monetary policy accommodation has increased. may,home sales picked up in rising more than expected thanks in large part to ler mortgage rates, but that boost for buyes could comack to bite them. dicka o explains. >> the difference a little bit makes. >> home fuyers areling more confident in the market. sales of existing homes just 2.5% in may compared topr. falling mortgage rates are behind the bump. >> when the mortgage rate falls it increases the purg power of home buyers, so when the rates were falling, the buyers are taking advantage of better opportunity and large purchasing and, therefore, they are able to bid higher on home prices. >> mortgage ratesegan falling at the start of this year, taking a sharp dip in march when a lot of theay contracts were signed. at the sam home prices were shrinking and competition was slowing. but falling mortgage res are double-edged sword. they help buyers afford more and they bring

it looks like powell might be coming around to jay bullard's view. and i should say, bullard's concern isn't that inflation is too high and wants to he get it down to zero. his concern that inflation is too low and he wants to get it higher. >> charles: right. >> and he's what w call a done,e wants the fed to be more aggressive. >> charles: what about the notion that rate cut would be assurance against down side shock? most of the rate cut cycles over the last -- five or six of them, began with 50 basis points. we saw some that began with 100 basis points. to me that suggests, hey, they were way behind the curve, now they're trying to catch up. feels to me there's an argument maybe jay powell's accepting the argument, why do we need to ever have to catch up like that, why can't we be more preemptive. >> he actually said that at his press conference. he said -- i'm going to mangle the saying, but an ounce of prevention is worth more than a pound of cure. i think that's the way the saying goes. the idea is if you do a little bit before the disease sets

happy friday people making jokes that bullard and kashkari are gunning for fed share.here we are >> i don't think that's going to happen i think we are gunning for 50 basis points on july 31st. i think that's going to happen i don't think the fed is going to stop there. you have to remember, you know, back in the last cycle the first rate cut in september of 2007 was 50 basis points. go back to the cycle before then when the fed started cutting rates in january of 2001, first rate cut 50 basis points and both those time periods nobody saw a recession coming, although it came two months later in both situations. >> yeah, in those situations 50 basis points didn't take us almost 30% of the way down to the bottom. >> that's a good point, but that was the famous quote from the q&a about the ounce of prevention for the pound of cure that was it right there. and he told us then and there at these low levels, the rates, if you are going to go, you are going big. >> the point this morning is we actually have cushion from zero bound. which is it, carson? >> well, definitely tha

in december.ance when you think about james bullard's comments today, he is dovish on the continuum.hink the fed is preserving its optionality. respond,to be able to but i think as i heard discussed earlier on the show, the data has got to get them there. that focuses my attention outside of what happened in japan with the u.s.-chinese -- negotiations. if it comes in solve, will he give them more latitude to make that cost-benefit analysis of a rate cut, and how aggressive of a rate cut? with the fixed income futures market and potentially the equity market. paul: you anticipated my question, you can't measure geopolitics but you can measure in terms of which way it's going to go. what are your expectations? >> there are some risks i look at when i'm trying to look in a concurrent way at some of these things. we had the dallas manufacturing survey that was quite soft. there might be modest risk to the downside on that. that said, it's a tough call right now. if we get positive news on the geopolitical side, then we could see that kind of overwhelm everything else. there's a lot of mo