we want to bring on edward lawrence who spoke with bullard in the last hour. you could have gotten a better guest at a better time. tell us about it. >> can you imagine the way the markets are going back and forth, james bullard, the president of st. louis federal reserve, the reset in assets has to happen because of what the federal reserve has done with tightening. and the economy museum this is one of the carts they use to move the money and you need a lot more dollar bills than are in here because of inflation. bullard, a voting measure of the fomc setting monetary policy with his vote. he said 50 basis points the last few meetings is what he expects. >> the more we confront load and get inflation, the inflation expectations the better off we will be and 23, 24 we could be lowering policy rate because we've got inflation under control. >> reporter: he said we would like to be at 3. 5% at the end of this year. if you do the math it doesn't work with the 50 basis point increase. that's up to the chairman to figure that out. the federal reserve uses rate incr

louis federal reserve james bullard.about the market, the s&p and bear market territory as we see here, is this reaction we are seeing the last couple days because the accommodation did not get removed fast enough and the rate hikes we are going to see? >> i don't think the bear market came in the last couple days. it is down from a much earlier peak so there's been a lot of repricing in markets and part of that is due to the fed but part of it might also be what were the prices before the downturn occurred so i think you would expect with the fed raising rates that all these assets, trillions of dollars worldwide would have to be repriced but we have to get inflation under control and we have a good plan to do so. >> the fed chairman has been saying 50 basis points, is that what you see or do we need to go to 75 basis points at some point? >> i said 50 basis points is a good plan for now. as always we have to pay attention to incoming data on the economy and on inflation and we will do that going forward and we will see

bullard gave an upbeat forecast for the u.s. economy. he says recession is unlikely despite red-hot inflation and, of course, market volatility. edward lawrence, you're live at the economy museum in the federal reserve bank of st. louis, missouri. and, you know, i was very happy to hear him say that. i think that -- i think the market actually did react at that moment. he did kind of calm the market a little bit. >> reporter: yeah, and you could see that. he also told me that he believes that the inflation will come down on the business side first, the ppi number, he believes, will dallas canically come down in the coming months. they actually have a real gold bullion here, and this is actually heavier than it looks here. [laughter] $1800, about, is what gold is at this moment. bullard was saying you don't need to rely solely on gold because he believes the fed can avoid a recession. listen. >> i think all that is great. >> reporter: so talking about a hot economy. so when federal reserve was saying, hey, let the economy run hot for a pe

bullard of st. louis speaking at the council, and many others as well.p 60, vicks comes in hundred 27.26. -- comes i -- vix comes in 27.26. craig up to this cricket that is with us. -- kriti gupta is with us. kriti: this begin almost four recessionary spending, this is an import ratio because as you look at home depot relative to walmart, that ratio tends to drop in recessions. guess what it is doing right now? it is dropping pretty steeply from the start of the year. it is import to keep in mind the way the price action is working is that it mirrors times of recession. but here's the thing, we are not in a recession you are seeing signs of growth, but not necessarily an actual recession which is why this is important. is the market selloff overdone? tom: greatly appreciate it. it is like the sun coming up in the east. you can understand that any criminal or civil litigation, there are events down the road where you go after the big fish. that has happened this morning with a publication by our banking senior reporter, which barely describes his expertis

jonathan: looking forward to jim bullard later this evening. i would love to get some insight on what the conversations with your clients sound like right now. nadia: clients are of course concerned about the volatility in the markets. what we try to do is anchor our clients to longer-term themes, take the opportunity to upgrade their portfolio in this time because we see quality stocks also getting thrown out in this volatile market. we are particularly focused on some of the new themes, having conversations around cybersecurity, energy security, food security. we continue to see food prices move higher. also between energy equities. lisa: how reluctant our clients to go into fossil fuels based on some of the esg mandates that have left so many investors underinvested? that is why some are saying there is more upside for wheel companies and why they are underpriced for where prices are. nadia: i think it is a mixed bag on the esg front. clients are also realizing that it will take longer for that energy transition. it is having both exposure t

when bullard said to me that we could do 75. the market was nonplussed. it was at 11:20 on thursday, may 21st that mary daly said we could do 25 or 50 or 75 we will deliberate it all. thatis when the market on the s&p went down 9.6% to 4.065% that remained unchecked. the idea that the fed could be random or could do 75 and the market could be worried -- that fre freaked out the market we will not do 75. the market liked the idea of the guardrails powell said we're going fast down the highway, but we are going to obey some of the lines on the road and we will be deliberate and tell you what we are going to be doing. that helped the market out did it go too far? i don't know that's not my job. i cover the fed. >> steve, there have been times when we asked whether market players in they saw the fed really wasvigilant we thought some market traders liked the fed to be more hawkish than what we thought maybe bond traders do press the buy signal when the fed goes further. i don't think it -- it is the punch bowl always works. that should be the default position

and i'm looking at you, jim bullard. evermore hawkish actions that then the market adjust to. ira jersey, our bloomberg intelligence fixed income guy, said yesterday, he thinks the fed is frontrunning itself. to an extent, i think that's true. they are putting out there the possibility of doing all of these extra hawkish things that they may not follow through on but the markets are repricing to them, especially the 75 basis point idea. nobody really endorsed, not even bullard, brought it up as a possibility, yet we saw the reaction in the market yesterday. the biggest increase in the fed funds rate since 2000 was dovish, because it was not worse. that strikes me as kind of odd. guy: but does the bank of england, ecb have to adjust to a new world in which their words carry extra weight? as i said before, we have been through a period where markets have been anesthetized. the amplitude of the reaction, the size of the reaction you get from any given phrase or word was smaller. because everybody is so confused, the words seem to care even more weight. our central banks talking t

> i might disagree with him he's really smart and jay has to listen to bullard.ay would never have taken the 75 off the table he hurt the cause. >> right we'll talk a lot more about a busyday in fed land. you saw the ten-year, 312 this morning. we'll get further into the jobs ers lo afuer the'a okt tures. don't go away. at cdw, we get these new ways of working bring new threats. that's why we started an office commune. not a security concern around for 50 miles. unless you count the wolves. and all the llama milk you can drink. you know at cdw, we can design a security solution using hp elite devices with real-time threat intelligence to help protect your data from new threats, anywhere you work. anywhere? ring the bell thrice, we're going back to the office! for technology that moves you forward, trust hp and it orchestration by cdw. thanks, paul. my fellow xfinity customers! the biggest week in entertainment is here! watchathon week presented by xfinity rewards! with free access to stranger things from netflix, the boys from prime video, starz, hbo max, and pea

the jim bullard to the ecb. jim bullard out early suggesting the fed was way behind the curve and needed to start doing 50 and possibly only hinted at 75 basis point hikes. today we got that similar sentiment. definitely the hawkish end of the spectrum when it comes to the ecb. the july 25 basis point hike is certainly baked in. raising the policy report 25, unless new income data in the next three months suggests inflation is broadening further and indicating a bigger increase is not to be excluded either. as a result of that comment and what we saw in the u.k. unemployment data, what we see is a significantly priced in what the ecb could be doing and what the bank of england could be doing. basically you've got her the bank of england, the federal reserve in white. the federal reserve in blue. i will get the cameraman to zoom in. if these go higher here and here that would suggest the market started to price in a hawkish trajectory from both of those central banks, significantly more hawkish this year and next

new regime -- james bullard would call a new regime.hat is our new regime? priya: we have had a bunch of regimes. i think the first part of the right move was led by the front-end, by inflation. then we have the front-end starting to get engaged because of quantitative tightening. what i am arguing is we are in a third regime because now the rates market is starting to price in gross concerns, which is why the yield curve has steepened, interest rates have fallen, led by that front-end. as people are seeing the tightening and financial conditions, and we have started to see some signs of sensitive sectors slowing, the fed may be overdoing it and therefore they may not be able to hike much above neutral. that is why i think process that correlations have come back and they are here to stay. i think growth concerns are front and center. the markets move beyond the next few meetings of the fed, where we know they're going to go 50 basis points the next two meetings, but what after that? i think that is the big focus. rates are pricing and

man people are lincoln men i'm a bullard man. was so much like bu bullard's when i was, like, 19 >> really? i've seen photos i wish he were here too. i wish there were a lot of people here. i've got the molsoncoors ceo on tonight and i had cawfield and i shook his hand -- i didn't really, i fist bumped him, but we need that i have gavin hattersley. watch him tonight. i'm putting him at the top of the show in good times and bad times people drink beer. >> yes >> he's got this stuff, part seltzer, it's killer i told james quincy to do that a long time ago for coca-cola. >> you know the business >> you can take water up 8 bucks and the gen-s guy is like how much is that water 8 bucks? i'll take five >> let's see how long that lasts. goldman with a new year end target on the 10-year at 3.30, jim. would you take that? >> really? >> would you take it, though ending the year there? >> two more rate hikes do them. we have to get this over with. but we're dragging it out. and that's what causes apple maybe to trade the 125 listen to deird

williams and bullard. after wallace, it speaks memorial day, and another round of jobless claims comes out on thursday. finally, rounding out the week, the u.s. payroll support on friday. it is an important week for sure. from goldman sachs, blackrock, and from ss, still with us. the biggest? starts next week. it won't be answered for a while. the fed reduced its balance sheet. how big of an impact does this have on your world? amanda: it is created some interesting and attractive relative value opportunities for us. the s market, there had been a lot of concerns from some market participants that the fed might perhaps engage in active sales of agency mbs that is not our base case for the near term, but nonetheless, the underperformance spreads versus ig corporate's, and we come a few weeks ago, operated the agency to overweight versus ig because we saw that as a dislocation. how that will correct will be as time goes on, and we view the consumer as a pretty strong shape. corporate, and when you think abou

jim bullard saying the u.s.rend pace for at least the next 18 months. dennis lockheart joins us. do you agree can we continue to grow? are they trying to have their cake and eat it, too >> it sounds a bit of having your cake and wanting to eat it, too. 18 months is a long time horizon under the current circumstances. the near-term outlook is clearly the economy will continue to grow, but will begin to slow down i think that's what the fed is trying to engineer i don't disagree strongly with jim bullard's view, but it's hard to predict that far out >> here's my question. i can ask you, and you're the perfect person to ask, because you wouldn't have asked if when you were at the fed. how much pain do you think chair powell and the gang can handle right now? they're trying to hurt demand, to bring down inflation. fine, but they also don't want a shock coming from stocks, so what is it >> the way they think about that, at least in my experience, they watch the markets closely, and look for potential financial instab

can't, i can't agree with the spirit of 89 because i really, as they said that the spirit was mainly bullard drive them on the very short, regardless of the outcome of this battle for a new world, the united states will remain a very influential country, whatever they do, they will still be a major player supreme player. why do you think they are going to such great lengths and frankly, such risks. now, in openly confronting russia, when they, you know, to get something that they already have an abandoned, why, what it, what is it exactly that they, after? the thing is that the european and american joe politics has a lot to do with russia. so they read the states is already the 1st measure power of the war. but in order to keep being a global and by the usa, usa, let's say, like works. there are some kind of the, by them rule over asia because as of a kind said, and, you know, my kind, there is the funding, father of geopolitics, rules are rules over door. so for us is not in there of mentally confronting russia. is matter of keeps being the measure power over a because the medium over eras

so i can, i can't agree with the spirit of 89 because i fully as a said that the spirit was mainly bullard drive them. and the very short, regardless of the outcome of this battle for a new world, the united states will remain a very influential country. whatever they do, they will still be a major player supreme player. why do you think they are going to such great lengths and frankly, such risks. now, in openly confronting russia when they, you know, to get something that they already have an abandoned. why, what it, what is it exactly the day after? the thing is, the european and american joe politics as a lot to do with russia. so the right, the states is already the 1st measure power of the war. but in order to keep being a global empire, the u. s. is a, let's say, like works. there are some kind of divider rule over asia because as of 0 for the mccain, there's said and you know mac and there is the funding father, joe politics, rules are rules over door. so for the us is not meant there of memory confronting russia. is matter of keeps being the measure power over arrays because the m

hey, sheila, sooner still go to my go to piano bullard awful talk mom wanted l m e a little bitty, still cynical at the moment about national director will buy it. sure. his us, it's on that if you the will put the do to with been super quoted economy and sir, ah, these children know all to well what war is, what they've never known as peace so far? yes, there's a lab there. i yeah. when i was a yang rock and i need many man, oh yeah. now, was it us way jack address doin elaine or any of those re, you've decorated a new ram, seen others got the country and sent him. what lose my papa for? yep. i love for her, you can get away. mamma, bushland, annual arm, you know, for sure. yeah, i choose to weigh less carries or questions. give that extra track all lustig that ah, but these children will never sing paint. oh, dream again. ah, the pharmacy keeps from guitar. morgan shannon ah, my tv authority, you about our computer when the car you night that just will not so many student gimme about your name. yeah. she bought a dog you live, but madam will be only so we assume with the dentist people

hey, chelsea not still go to my go to pillow. bullard also told me what to do. m e m buildable. so pretty still cynical rep agreement about my senior director will buy it. sure. his us, it's on that if you the will. but the do to with been super quoted economy in sir hulu, with these children know all to well what war is, what they've never known as peace. has special up there. am. i wasn't clear. yang, you're welcome. bye, near mandy. man. no. yeah. now was it also a jag address doin or any of those they have to created a new ram seen or got the country had sent him. what do you mean in my band? yep. i can get away. i am on bachelor's annual arm. you push it here, i choose to buenos aires are quite choice in that extra crown. last thing that ah, but these children will never sing paint. oh dream again. ah, that up arm if you keep trim, get your mortgage and then ah, my tv authority, you about our computer one little guy you night that just will not sound my list. you just give me about the new one, m u g r i dot, you live thought amanda will be with the danielle peoples republi

lorna bullard. awful talk moment. did l m e a little bit, you still cynical rep agreement about rushing in the look to buy it? sure. jesus of son of if the we've got to do to throw in super particular mean sir . ah, these children know all to well what war is, what they've never known is peace. ah, so far, yes, special up there. i yeah, well there was a yang. you're welcome. bye. near mandy. now. no. yeah. now, was it also a jag address going away? no, i mean those. are you ticket agents? i mean, they're seen america the, the country had sent him. what? lose my papa friend? yep. i love for her, you can get away. mamma, bushland, renewal lot of new washer here. i choose to weigh less carries are quite choice in that extra rack. all lustig that ah, but these children will never sing paint. oh, dream again. ah, the pharmacy keeps from guitar. morgan shannon ah, my tv authority, you about our computer when the car you night, that just oil nuts on my list. you just give me about your name. yeah. she bought a dog. you live

all kinds of things could happen. >> bullard was somewhat optimistic.y could bring a recession under control. there are so many voices saying almost by definition you cannot. >> it is a very tricky task. kathleen hays, global economics and policy editor with the latest on the fed and inflationary pressures that are now spreading to food costs as well, given what we are talking about, supply chain disruptions, is leading to food costs continuing to surge especially with the war in ukraine. that is hurting china. china imports and depends on imports of soybean for 85% of its consumption. xi jinping has tried push farmers to harvest more, consumers to really reduce waste, and of course we still have to see what happens, but so far >> japanese markets were opening just under about 15 minutes or so from now. we are seeing nikkei futures looking pretty positive, extending gains to almost 1% there. we are seeing oscillation when it comes to u.s. stock futures. we are seeing nasdaq as well as s&p futures looking positive at this point. treasury futures edging l

challenging, especially for those who sit in wheel chairs, not able to place is accessible, but david le bullard doesn't see it that way. he uses his wheel chair like escape both and has even one championships in the still emerging spot. a real role model. one little spins grinds along the curb and elise of the food stamps. 35 year old david loses must not escape or the tricks on his wheelchair move is a challenge. sometimes painful, always exciting. but like lot of who, when you do something, you've tried a 1000 times before and you finally make it. it's such a mega relief, ego relief. for me, one example is the hand plant land. it's my, it's always some trick. i've been trying for years up until i get it down half way and then finally pull it off perfectly. and that's what i did that one day deal fun . luckily there's a video of it. and it was indescribable because at 1st i didn't even realize it. i just rolled away and thought to myself would exit. what was that? but what was that? and i tossed my helmet in the air, it was such a mega joy. it's hard to put it in world history slab, dated lucy

this sunday has bullard and his allies are trying to retain their majority and parliament, but their opponents say the vote could be their chance to end the iranian back parties, domination of political decision making. center harder reports from beirut. more than 1000 candidates are competing for 128 seats in parliament. but there are only 2 main contenders in lebanon's elections. iran wants its local ally, has belonged to keep its political power while saudi arabia, once this country's main partner, is hoping to shift the balance back in its favor. its allies are calling this election and existential battle to regain lebanon's identity and, and what they describe as iran's occupation, but they faced a strong enemy. what you are going to see as a outcome of this election probably is that you're going to see his, bela and ally, and forming a very big parliamentary alliance. while the opposition to has been very fragmented. forces opposing has below are many, but they are not united divisions among muslim. suddenly politicians hasn't helped their leader side of how do you this decisio

they have practically disappear, and business is flowing. bullard no longer afraid to come to the city center and walk the streets so many have suffered extortion rape, killing that even if some innocence have to suffer others believe that's a price worth paying if they can simply be free. the question is, if at the end of all the arrest, confusion, or brutality, this will actually work. john holeman al jazeera tornado warnings have been issued in the united states following damage to homes and businesses. penny say some people were trapped when a twista struck buildings near oklahoma city. ah, this is al jazeera, these, your top stories. and these 3 people have been killed in a stabbing attack in the israeli city of a lot near tel aviv police sight. i suspect the attack as fled in a vehicle for others were wounded. turn them on serious condition. stephanie deck has moved from west jerusalem. 3 killed, 4 wounded, 2 of them critically. the attack took place in various parts of the city of.

they have practically disappeared, and business is flowing, bullard longer afraid to come to the city center and walk the streets. so many have suffered extortion rape, killing that even if some innocence have to suffer others believe that's a price worth paying if they can simply be free. the question is, if at the end of all the arrest confusion of brutality, this will actually work. john holman, out 0 poles have closed and counting has begun in local elections across the united kingdom or the 1st major electoral test for bias. johnson's government, following the pandemic, the war and ukraine, and so called party gates scandals. millions of people in england, scotland and wales have been voting for local counselors. they want to run services in the areas as well as some mares, while in northern ireland. equally been casting ballots for their representatives to the devolved assembly. for the 1st time, nationalist sion fain could win the majority of seats during a hold on just now from belfast. in northern airline, an island, sorry at jonah. what are people saying about a potential sh

they have practically disappear, and business is flowing. bullard no longer afraid to come to the city center and walk the streets so many have suffered extortion rape, killing that even if some innocence have to suffer others believe that's a price worth paying if they can simply be free. the question is, if at the end of all be a risk confusion or brutality, this will actually work. john holeman out 0. natalia wheatley has been named the british virgin island new premier aft, a vote of no confidence against andrew fall. he who's accused of drug trafficking, while he was arrested in miami last week and granted bail on thursday. as louis as he intends to plead not guilty to the charges, which also include money laundering. he was caught in the us drug stating together with the territory ports authority director at the pair or keys of green to help smuggle cocaine from the british virgin islands to the united states. lost more on all our stories on our website. the address for us is al jazeera dot com to check it out. aah! as as our desert these your top stories. these 3 people have bee

kathleen: jim bullard, president of the st.at than event, he would asked about a 75 basis point rate hike and he said, we could if we needed it, but my best cases 50 basis points. they have committed to three in a row, may, june and july. most are sticking with that, but maybe they will do more 50s and not a 75. the former new york fed resident bill dudley, a bloomberg opinion writer and senior advisor to bloomberg economics, was on television today. he said the fed is going to have to communicate, be a lot more aggressive, get way above the futures rate of 3% or 2.5% that he think maybe we have to go all the way to 5%. it is too early to say. but i think the question maybe how many 50's you do, not whether or not you do 75. 75 would be under unusual circumstances. knowing the history the fed, i think that is one reason they don't put higher on sonic. shery: kathleen hays with the latest. let's look at hong kong, the hong kong monetary authority has moved to support the local currency for the first time since 2019 50 interventi

you know where jim bullard wants it, closer to three, and he wanted pretty quickly.r coverage begins at 1:00. alan blinder will join us from princeton. we have david blanchflower from dartmouth, as well. it will be a terrific set. jonathan: i don't know what he will say, but i'm looking forward to it. tom: right now we digressed to the issue of the moment. as we have done with ukraine and covid, find legit experts. that would be elaine kamarck, senior fellow at the brookings institute, professor at harvard, but she is a student of presidential success and failure. you wrote a definitive essay, i thought, very balanced for brookings yesterday this raging debate of abortion. at the end of it, you predict, off the experience of covid, a tsunami of fear he -- fury. when does the tsunami hit? elaine: thank you for having me. . it hit last nigh with demonstrations outside the supreme court. these will continue. this will increase turnout for the midterm elections. a sleepy and kind of indifferent democratic electorate i think has gotten a big wake-up call. i think people w

louis fed president, bullard, the arch talk. we will also get the on world food situation report for april is released. coming up, the cfo, tanate phutrakul, joins us with first-quarter earnings from ing. coming up on bloomberg. dani: later on, we are going to talk about wall street bonuses, which plummeted by as much as 40%. on the back of a banking slump. we get you the details. this is bloomberg. ♪ dani: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: americas. dani burger in london, along manus cranny in dubai. a hawkish fed, something different was going on here, with ing in the u.k.. warnings from the d.o.b. -- boe of potential damage as a hydrate storm percent saying the economy -- the sterling following its most since the start of the pandemic. this is the standout central bank yesterday, one bonds everywhere were crashing. manus: absolutely. that is the biggest days drop, march 2020, 2%. it is the bond market, speculation already in the u.k., may push inflation over 10%, he also says there is a possibility of recession. the bond ma

jim bullard thinks we could get there by the end of the year. it is certainly possible.isa: when you talk about the inability to hire workers, how do we gauge that versus companies choosing not to hire because the cost is too high given how much wages have increased? mike: that will be an interesting tipping point, something the fed will have to worry about as it raises interest rates. that will tell us about how interest rates are impacting business spending. right now, there doesn't seem to be a sign that companies are pulling back for that reason. they seem to be willing to raise prices to keep it up. if american start to say we will not pay these higher prices, martin start to get impacted, then maybe we will see things slow down. lisa: why do people trade on the adp? mike: it's a question that everyone asks about probably because there is nothing else to trade on today. you could trade on the fed today, but the fed does not meet every month on the adp days. most days there is not much else to trade on. it does gave economists one more data point to fold into their f

jim bullard and the st. louis fed, who was the first person to utter the words of having to a 75% -- point basis rate hike. that is going to be enough for now, the 50 point base rate hike. former u.s. fed governor, dudley, is putting out his latest opinion piece, saying the fed is going to have to get real. they're probably going to have to raise the key rate to a neutral and a lot higher than what they have been saying, something like 4% or 5%. let's listen. >> the problem is the fed reserve has not been forceful enough in stating, not just what their goal is to percent inflation but the means to achieve that goal. the press conference did not want to talk about why policy did not want to go to neutral, it might have to go to tight. a tight monetary policy is what is going to be required to get inflation under control. >> prices probably have peaked. there is no doubt that there will be forces to help bring them down. the fed is not going to be satisfied with 7%, six percent, 4% year-over-year rate of infla

joe bullard from st. louis said yes, it could be an option if needed like alan greenspan said in 1994 but, "not his base case." he's not expected to have to do it. lori mester wants methodical moves, she does not favor a shock move. charlie evans, the chicago fed president sees the need for 50 basis points but not more than 50 basis points. i think this market expectation has cooled off a bit as we hit the end of day one of the meeting. bloomberg economics says there is a decent chance of a 75 basis move because powell has said that there is a too hot labor market. and we see record wage increases last friday, a job opening up to 11.5 million. the u.s. another record. at the same time, was also important here is that we are going to watch the presser. he will talk about the need for 50 basis points, maybe 75. listen to what he says as he talks about methodical moves. i think that is one of the key things. is the inflation outlook going to peak? will he worry expectations are becoming entrenched? how high

you have bullard switching to the potential of rate cuts late next year. is this a tonal change? is something different happening at the fed where they are starting to take this step back and pause type of approach? >> that is really interesting. we are starting to see these mutterings and it is definitely something that the markets and investors are looking at very closely. i do think it is early days to say that we will see a pause, but definitely it is something we are starting to see markets and investors talk about more. as you mentioned, inflation still a problem. the rbnz incredibly hawkish going forward. in the u.s., it is definitely something that we are going to probably see a lot more talk in the markets about a potential pause. dani: as stephen englander writes this morning saying, be careful what you wish for with the fed wanting to slow down the economy. manus: absolutely. i think it is going to be a volatile week. dani: it certainly is. thank you for helping us get set up for the rest of the volatility. there has also been a lot of talk in davos about ecb rate hike

even jim bullard pointed it will come out of retirement but you're not seeing the kind of disruptiond lead to that kind of intervention. a lot of people point to that. jonathan: you're not seeing it yet. lisa: yet. jonathan: we have had so much for to speak and they have not gone there. the nasdaq down a little more than 1%. we will get the view of subadra rajappa alongside bob doll and the view from deutsche bank. they are forecasting a recession. deutsche bank's call coming up shortly. laura: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. president biden marked one million deaths from covid by," and congress to maintain funding for testing and treatment. lawmakers remain unable to agree on how to pay for the fight. today the u.s. opens at second summit a great -- aimed at quelling the spread of the coronavirus. it would be another jolt to the european landscape. finland and sweden are inching closer to joining nato. finland's president and prime minister through their weight behind an application in sweden's government is right to do so soon. the nordic countries are seeki

john williams and raphael bostic and chris waller and jim bullard and mary daly. let's bring in greg branch and an dan morgan. thank you for being here >> hi, frank >> a lot of people are looking forward to the jobs report at 8:30 this morning. a lot of pressure and thoughts about that you are looking past that to next week to the next cpi. i want to ask about both how do you see the jobs report in the market and what do you look for with the cpi? >> it would allow 2 million more jobs with the lowest benefits taken in 50 years. the tech hands are tied unless there is a cratering in employment they forced themselves into this by being behind the curve on inflation. many of us thought they should have come out of jackson hole to tighten last year. they did not do that at this point, their hands are tied the next cpi could be a big event. at the end of the day, we have to talk about the base again this was a popular issue in 2021 for those in that transitory camp nothing to see here on inflation. it is now working the other way. last month, we had 8.5% on the march o

james bullard two weeks ago saying he sees the potential for rate hikes as early as 2023 if they succeedn bringing down inflation. so they have this hopeful sense of what could happen. they are also talking about the balance sheet reduction. everybody agreed they have to do that. they have a $9 trillion balance sheet. on june 1, they will start with reducing mortgage-backed securities. no surprises in here. just confirmation that what they have been saying publicly is what they have been planning to do. hats of the communication of the fed folks. haidi: and that prospect of a fed pause, perhaps not as much hawkish nest as had been feared, will drive gains today, andrea. andrea: it looks like it. i think the market reacted to what was in there, this idea that they could be more flexible going forward. the fact that they didn't sound as hawkish as some have expected from them, providing some support for equities in the u.s. last night. looks like it will lead to a higher asia open today. overall investors are used to the idea that we will get two fed rate hikes, 50 basis point. but this ta

jim bullard was the first one who said we could use it if we have to, i am sticking with 50 basis point hikes, continues to say that 50 basis point rate hikes is what the fed will be doing for a while. so, obviously no change in the vision for him. i the fed too -- i expect the fed too will say may be 50 basis point rate hikes but not 75 yet. haidi: we saw asian stocks halt the seven-day slide but it looks like with the inflation, that will be short-lived. andreea: that's right. we saw that broad selloff in the u.s. last night. the ones that underperformed where the tech stocks and we are likely to see that, especially with chinese tech stocks in asia today. that is not surprising, the flattening of the yield curve. we know that is keeping technology and -- it is hitting technology and growth stocks the most. and while investors are not pricing in the 75 basis point, perhaps now the market is pricing and 50 basis points in september after similar moves in july and june. and what is this going to hit? obviously tech stocks under pressure. again, morgan stanley has come out saying this ro

tom: you are at indiana university which i believe is the stomping ground of james bullard.iana is an acclaimed mathematics and economic combine. there is a different view in indiana. it is an optimism america can heal and move on away from the elites on the east coast. is that still in place? can we technologically move on and move forward like that indiana optimism? nela: i will have to note that governor waller is also an iu affiliate so we have a good representation in the federal reserve system. i think the optimism around innovation and productivity is warranted. that is what makes the wage gains good for the economy. that is what leads to profitability. we have seen a big uptick in innovation just to get through the pandemic. a lot of things that were expected into the future such as e-commerce and automation has been pulled forward. can the economy build on that momentum on those gains to keep that productivity moving? tom: i love that we have nela on. there is not enough midwest freshwater representation in the economic discussion. you get guys like jerome powell wh

chair powell, james bullard, neel kashkari, loretta mester. who isn't speaking? what are they going to say? how do they message this going forward? one site do we get -- what insight do we get from beneficial saying we watch the data? jonathan: these former fed officials are not holding back. lisa: i would agree. ben bernanke said they made a mistake, they missed the boat, they are facing stagflation. that is so unusual for a former fed chair to come out and criticize the standard leadership. that is what we saw. jonathan: what would you prefer to talk about, the fed speak or twitter? twitter right now and the premarket, the conversation looks a little something like this. twitter committed to completing the deal with musk on the price of $54.20. the number beside you is not $54.20. lisa: this means to me that the deal is off because it seems like elon musk was looking for an out after having buyer's remorse, saying perhaps he did not want to pay $54.20. twitter saying we are still going for $54.20. how much does this mean the deal is off? jonathan:jonathan: elon

right, the 10 year will into the third quarter, 3.08 according to the bloomberg survey, and james bullard wants 3% on rates by the end of the year. he wants to frontload the gun. that will be an interesting week for bonds. do they cover? aussie dollar, the dollar generally rolling over this morning, the first major loss last week. for the moment, shorts have been demolished in the aussie dollar trade and the aussie rises about 7/10 of 1%. dani: let's get into some of those top stories from our reporters around the world. manus: equities trading higher after last week's losses, almost pushing the s&p 500 into the bear market territory. consumer stocks lost $550 billion in value, some of the biggest names in retail will hit the tape this week. abdree -- anfreea, is it a their market rally? andreea: if we knew the answer to that question. going back to what you mentioned about u.s. consumer stocks, that is a real concern for investors, because consumers were being touted as one group that was really underpinning the u.s. economic growth. you are seeing the supply chain issues as well as high

jonathan: to be fair to jim bullard of the st. louis fed, they haven't made that many moves. couple of interest rate hikes and qt. lisa: honestly, the idea when you take a look at the balance sheet, it basically has plateaued at nearly $9 trillion. we are talking about removing liquidity. jonathan: the market has made a few big moves. futures negative zero point a present on the s&p. on the nasdaq we are down by more than 1%. stocks to watch, there's only one, target down by 22.6% in early trading. just a monster move lower. it is about that revenue falling to the bottom line and what the margins look like. the margins are not great. tom: you've got them as a lead story, but my recollection is we were at negative nine spx futures as those headlines came out an hour and 15 minutes ago, and now we are -33, so this announcement moved the market, no question. jonathan: without a doubt. you saw the walmart numbers yesterday. the challenge with margins, the product mix, and all of that. target closed down yesterday by 1.8%. i am to struggling with what is going on here and how they

now, the people who have led the way in pushing the fed to go more, like jim bullard of st. louis, chris waller on the board of governors, have suggested that we may be looking at a neutral rate of 3% to 3.5% or even higher because the economy has changed. that is the question. that will be the driving question for jay powell tomorrow, as people try to figure out how much the fed is going to move each meeting. now, the base case is going to be 50. markets will be adjusting up and down over that limit. they will try to figure out only what the fed is going to do, but then what the subsequent data will tell them. guy: ira, they were talking about where inflation needs to get to for the fed to relax. they talked about it being close to or around 4%. the fed can kind of start to ease off a little bit, calm down a little bit if we get 4%. what is the market pricing, in terms of expectation later on this year? there are some data points that might point to the idea that inflation comes off mechanically, but then starts to re-accelerate again. what is the market thinking about when

we have a slew of fed speaking, including that minneapolis president, atlanta, jim bullard of the st. louis fed, mary daly of the san francisco fed. how do they respond? what is the markets response to jay powell easing financial conditions. could it be followed by a reversal in decline? at 4:15 p.m., this might be the most interview of the date, to me. michael mckee is speaking with the former fed governor randy quarles. you've picked up on certain things that have been said in the recent past, but i want to hear his comments on basically whether fed chair jay powell has not messed up, but didn't go aggressively enough, or aired in laying out a path for interest rates at a time when the risk right now is to the upside with inflation and how comes out. jonathan: earlier this week, it was said the fed delayed getting on top of inflation because they do not have clarification on leadership in the fed at the white house. in any other week, with the carnage and market mess, that federal reserve decision, this would have been talked about so much more than it has been. so much more. tom: i

. >> hannity: the homeland security is grilled by republican lawmakers today about joe biden's bullardand of course his department's new ministry of truth he had no idea the person that he picked was a purveyor of misinformation. we have the take coming up next. ♪ ♪ (girls giggling) ♪ (fun music) ♪ the comfortmat from weathertech offers support where you need it. mom's gonna love this! grandma's gonna love it! (girls giggling) comfortmat provides anti-fatigue cushioning while you're standing. and won't slip against your floors or under your feet. perfect throughout the home, or on the job. the weathertech comfortmat comes in three colors and finishes. (girls giggling) mmmm... it's so good! order your american made comfortmat at weathertech.com. >> hannity: as he appeared before congress today yet again republicans rarely took advantage of his trip to ask about the head of his new disinformation governance board or as new ministry of truth leader including senator john kennedy from louisiana who did this to say take a look. >> when the department picture, did it know that she had said t

jims bullard said we won't go into a recession. he is not one of those woke central bankers. didn't realize there was a group of woke central bankers. >> there are too many woke central bankers. a lot of democrats like larry summers complained about it. he said there wasn't a recession. he was talking up the economy because he realizes to kill inflation we have to raise interests rates more than what has been done to cool it down and in order to do that you have to convince everybody that the economy is strong enough to avoid a recession. i think that was it. but you had a lot of experts in the market saying no, there is no way we can avoid a recession. we've already had one quarter of down growth. the first quarter was negative. >> harris: the president said we won't be in a recession. maybe 2023. >> if we have one more quarter. we won't know that answer until mid july. that would be officially recession. it certainly feels to a lot of americans like recession. again, i think the feelings of americans are a better indicator and a better prognosticator what will happen than t

louis president jim bullard will be here britt i'm interested to hear what he has to say. mary daly -- how much does she push back against the complacency that was overturned yesterday? how much do they talk about the need to tighten faster. in the face of increasing headwinds? we spoke to the vice president yesterday. he will come out and talk about -- or he did come out and talk about the concern for higher rates. the funds rate will i believe ultimately need to be raised well into restricted territory, by at least a persistent -- percentage point above the estimated nominal neutral rate of 2.5%. the reason i bring that up is that the former head of the governing council is going to be speaking to michael no later today. -- michael mckee later today. jonathan: he's told us what he thinks, hasn't he? he essentially came out, and thank you lisa, by the way, and said the reason they waited is they did not have clarity on fed leadership it they should've gotten on top of that in september. i'm so much looking forward to that conversation with mike a little bit later because

louis fed president jim bullard, he believed that the second half of the year we'll see more growth than we're actually anticipating right now. we're in a slow period now. he thinks they will turn around. so the fed will reassess after the next two meetings where they need to go in the future. do they need 75 basis points, 25 or nothing. neil: bullard was saying maybe by 2024 could be lowering rates which seems to telegraph rates a recession or minimum of a slowdown, that we might already be in the process of overdoing it. reporter: he made a point that recession is not his buys case formula. neil: right. reporter: that they could be in front of inflation enough by 2024, that they could start brining things back down to sort of manuever the market and steady prices out there. >> you know these guys inside and out, don't you? when you were a kid did you collect baseball card equivalents of fed districts and governors? i have a feeling you did. reporter: bobbleheads. neil: i did astronauts. you did fed governors. edward lawrence from the white house. we told you about the fear going into m