— who founded cobra besr and is now a big boss at the cbi — the confederation of british industry.come from the house of lords because you've got posh notepaper and you're wearing a tie! judgey! and we've got natasha loder, who is a health policy editor from the economist. hi, natasha. hello, hello! welcome to the studio, because you've been on zoom before, so it's nice to actually see you in real—life. right, let's do the economy first. lord bilimoria, this announcement we're going to get from kwasi kwarteng, we keepjoking... is it a budget, a mini—budget, fiscal event? from your soundings around it, how huge is it going to be, do you reckon? i think this is absolutely terrific. ll've been saying for a long time| when i was president of the cbi, going back to february 2021, to the then chancellor — - don't increase taxes. whatever you do, don't, - because it will stifle the recovery and it will hamper growth. did he listen? no. and we've got up to the stage of having the highest - tax burden in 70 years. i think that is absolute madness at any time, | let alone when we have suffer

i made a speech when i stepped down as president of the cbi.as. it's reducing taxes - and so reversing this 2.5%. it's1.25% and 1.25 employers and employees' national- insurance. that's a tax on jobs. great announcement that we are removing that, i reversing that now. corporation tax, going up - from 19% to 25% in one swoop. that was going to be damaging business and damaging inwardl investment. that's no longerl going to happen. and i hope they'll go further. i hope— i've said before — bring that 1% reduction . in income tax that _ rishi sunak talked about doing before the next election. do it now. we need the help right now. and, of course, more help. there is more help i that's needed as well. so, this government is doing absolutely the right things. i i wonder how bleak, bluntly, you think things are right now, economically? if ten is as bad as it gets and one is brilliant, how bad are things? things are really very, very bad. i businesses are struggling in a big way, particularly. small— and medium—sized enterprises are struggling j in a h

what i have seen as cbi prison, the federation confederation of british industries, we are not membersur trade, so it is a top priority for us. and what is holding us back is the northern ireland protocol. and we need to sort that out in the same way we are protecting the good friday agreement, making sure there is a seamless border between northern ireland and ireland, we have to make sure there is a seamless border between great britain and northern ireland. and when i havejust been in northern ireland with their members talking to business, they just want to get on with it, they are seeing the reality of the vast majority, well over 99% of goods going from great britain to northern ireland are for consumption in northern ireland. a small particles into ireland and will have a system like a green channel and a red channel. 99% is the green channel additive is a red channel, declared it. but do not hold up the vast majority for the sake of something you might have to declare or theoretically might have to go to theoretically might have to go to the european court ofjustice. in practic

lord karan bilmoria of cbi. bloomberg. ♪ dani: liz truss will formally be appointed as uk prime minister tomorrow when she visits queen elizabeth in her scottish castle. bloomberg's lizzy burden has been at 10 downing street watching the events unfold and what to watch up ahead. let's start with the here and now. we heard from liz truss earlier in the day. what were the big takeaways from her speech? lizzy: it was a narrower than expected victory for liz truss but after this bruising battle we have had all summer liz truss will be britain's third female prime minister. in her acceptance speech she targeted the tory members who had selected her. she thanked her friend boris johnson and said her priorities would be tax cuts along with energy and the national health service. if she wants to stay in power she will have to broaden her appeal to the wider electorate. she will have to call a general election in 2024 or january 2025. at the moment the polls say she would lose to labor. the speech was notably scant on de

hang on a second, the (bi and fsb have welcomed our| the cbi and fsb have welcomed our plans _ the cbially hung up his racket at 41 years old. first this hour we are really celebrating winning yachting four times in a row. beyond bargain tennis, lewis hamilton in f1, and saint helens in super league have the chance today. we could see history made in the super league grand final. a resurgent leeds rhinos are taking on the reigning champions st helens, whose players are looking to cement their names in history, by lifting the trophy for the, fourth consecutive year. there will be highlights tonight on bbc one from 10.50, you can listen to 5 live. and what we were just talking about... a packed 02 arena. with 17,000 fans chanting the name of roger federer, it really was the perfect send—off for roger federer. with his familyjoining him on court at the end too, the most graceful, elegant player the men's game has ever seen, finally bid his farewell at the age of 41 in emotional scenes in london last night. the 20—time grand slam winner teamed up with great friend and rival rafa nadalfor t

. >> is it disingenuous to call this inflation reduction act if we are looking at a cbi that actually? >> it's the only thing we have done that has a chance to fight inflation. >> that was james taylor, my mistake there. proof this will be a big one for the midterm, speaker nancy pelosi wanted to make sure everyone in attendance of the white house was giving them credit. >> mr. president, thank you for unifying and inspiring a division of stronger, fair, safer country for all. your extraordinary leadership has made this glorious day possible. that is an applause line. [cheers and applause] >> peter: that goes to show even invited guests by the biden administration on the white house self want her having a hard time seeing the inflation reduction part of the root inflation reduction act. >> steve: first of all, who is john taylor? >> peter: i'm sure there are ten guys watching right now named john taylor. they just spit out the cop a little bit. >> steve: at least he didn't say elizabeth taylor. >> peter: that would be something. >> steve: one other bit of news you and i were talking a

what we did we ran the numbers, basically looking if there is any way for us to get to a two handle on cbiupply side factors. the answer is yes, oil stay low and car prices give 50% of the gains post-pandemic that gets you back to 2% cpi really. charles: what does that translate to the stock market and particularly the s&p? >> if that would happen that would be very bullish for the markets. any long duration assets beaten up, big tech, tech in general, nasdaq type of stocks, they would fly if we were to get there. i said to clients, if you were to tell me for sure that cpi would be at 2 1/2% this time next year, you know, i would be a "raging bull" on the stock market. so you need to, i think the evidence here is incrementally more bullish, outsized probability. charles: warren, one other factor you talked about is crude oil. i have a west texas intermediate chart. it is obviously in a down channel, no doubt about that. right in the channel to move higher. looks to me 95 would be a breakout point. is there somewhere on here where you have to go back to the drawing board on everything? >> i

we are nowjoined by the head of the cbi, director—general of the cbi.ting versus eating could be the story of the winter for the uk versus eating could be the story of the winterfor the uk but versus eating could be the story of the winter for the uk but you are right to point out the business situation because people may not realise but businesses have no energy cap and they have not had an energy cap and they have not had an energy cap and they have not had an energy cap for over a year and some of the annual price rises in energy bills have been up to something like 300% and some of the ones we are hearing about in the last week as bills are renewed are 1000% and above, and what that does for some businesses, if you are running a small business and all of a sudden your bill has gone from 2000 per year up to £25,000 a year, you can't continue, you will close your doors. we have a set of small firms who simply can't afford these escalating energy costs and we have got a whole set of other firms, a lot of small businesses, for whom the cliff edge thatis

, friday by organisations like the cbi. the — friday by organisations like the cbi, the federation ofg future. so let's get into a few specifics because there _ long future. so let's get into a few specifics because there is - long future. so let's get into a few specifics because there is a - long future. so let's get into a few specifics because there is a lot - long future. so let's get into a few specifics because there is a lot for| specifics because there is a lot for people to get their heads around. november the 23rd, you are due to present a medium—term fiscal plan, i think that is the terminology. are you bringing that forward? it will you bringing that forward? it will be the chancellor _ you bringing that forward? it will be the chancellor presenting - you bringing that forward? it will be the chancellor presenting it, to explain _ be the chancellor presenting it, to explain what it is, the medium fiscal— explain what it is, the medium fiscat pian— explain what it is, the medium fiscal plan will set out how we are going _ fiscal plan will set out how we are going to _ fisc

double-digit cbi. they are saying there is a risk of expectations the anchoring on inflation.ecb has a lot more work to do. tom: how does that theory work with inflation at 17.1%. this theory work here sort of like the seven year deviation. jonathan: we have seen that in the u.k., i am not saying it is starting to turn. tom: we will continue to monitor is through the weekend as well. equities, bonds, currencies and hydrocarbons. an expert on this is regina mayor kmpg intl. global head of energy thatkmpg intl. which barely describes her military experience. what are you watching in the oil and gas market? when you begin your day, what is the thing we need to focus on right now? regina: when i think about what is happening in europe, because that is where there's a lot of tension i'm looking at re-things every day. what is the natural gas stock supply look like? what are the prices for natural gas in europe? and what are the weather projections? today, tomorrow and this coming winter. european gas stocks are at 90% of normal for this time. they were at 60% over the summer. the e

i'm joined now by matthew fell, who is chief uk policy director at the cbi , which represents aroundy for the uk, this is good news for business. we've been calling for a long time for an ambitious growth plan for the uk and we have got one now.— we have got one now. which businesses, _ we have got one now. which businesses, though. - we have got one now. which businesses, though. i- we have got one now. which businesses, though. i thinkl we have got one now. which - businesses, though. i think there's lots in here — businesses, though. i think there's lots in here to _ businesses, though. i think there's lots in here to like. _ businesses, though. i think there's lots in here to like. we've - businesses, though. i think there's lots in here to like. we've seen - businesses, though. i think there's lots in here to like. we've seen a i lots in here to like. we've seen a government willing to back a big bets with reforms to speed up and accelerate major infrastructure projects and a government prepared to be bold with thinking about investment zones which will back businesses around th

continued to rise and rents, which home prices are reputed rent and rent is a third or more of the cbicpi, how we calculate inflation. those things have embedded growth built into them. we measure rent increases from this year to last year, 12 months ago. even if rent growth starts to slow, relative to 12 months ago, it will be high and probably has been continuing to spike up. there is a lot of embedded inflation and momentum in the economic data, which i think people in the market in hearing chairman powell's comments interpret it as saying we are going to see rates sustained highs. and the idea the fed is going to cut things in 2023, bring them down a little bit, is not in the cards. that is what we are hearing and then when you think about that in the housing market, it is clear the implications of that for housing because it is the most interest-rate-intensive sector. i know he is focused heavily on the labor market because ultimately that is what is driving wages with a gdp perspective or a key part of the economy. housing is nothing huge share of gdp but housing is the place tha

generally the cbi have said we welcome the corporation tax, the fact it will not go up, but actually that is quite a big raise and a lot of properties will be completely taken out of stamp duty. they will see the biggest benefit as well first—time buyers. the hope is some of that money will end up in the buyers“ pockets, making more people want to sell, more sprucing up, more economic growth, and maybe even tempt more builders into the marketplace to meet that demand. but there is a lot of ifs and buts before that happens because the price for the buyers doesn'tjust depend on the house price they are paying but also on the interest rates which do look as if they are going to go up. that will determine affordability and you just don't meet demand in order to build, you need planning permission too. robert, i apologise for springing this on you. what does this mean for second home buyers?— second home buyers? there is no chance second home buyers? there is no chan . e to second home buyers? there is no change to the _ second home buyers? there is no change to the rules _ second home bu