cbi.e we are another guy who knows his stuff and also knows his way around . white whitehall his way around. white whitehall . mike, what's your overview of this refocusing of government departments sticking trade and industry together ? does it make industry together? does it make sense to you it viable ? look, i sense to you it viable? look, i think it's laudable, but i think we need to put this in. i think we need to put this in. i think we all understand understands the last several years have been really difficult. we've all had face the post financial crisis era. we've all had to face covid. we've had to face the post—covid hangover economically and inflationary. we've seen the problems on energy prices . we've problems on energy prices. we've had the ukraine event with russia, which undermined confidence and what we have to understand this country, whether we like it or not, we've added two other dimensions. one is, of course, is the economic cost to brexit, is real. and digby brexi

that we'd the, the old canceled by display phones because they say they are american sanctions against cbi. and we cannot let you collect money for humanitarian reasons in syria and my own monitoring campaign. crowdfunding campaign on golf on me dot com was cancelled, was taken down because of the american sanctions. but if you collect money to any area and see where that is controlled by al qaeda, it's allowed you can do that, but not for the areas $90.00. we're at 90 percent of the people live. i can walk out now. sienna, the founder of the seriana analysis group. joining us here live on auto international, very insightful and very strong commentary from you. thank you very much for your time today. thank you. i thank you for joining us. aeronautics international. your program will return at the top of the hour. ah ah thing . a some nations may be able to turn a blind eye to atrocities and other countries. the united states of america is different. wherever people long to be free. they will find a friend in the united states. oh, it's okay. how do i get to start to know that a case study

the week ahead, we have a host of fed speak and the big event, cbi on deck. that is next.s is real yield on bloomberg. ♪ katie: i am katie greifeld, this is bloomberg real yield. time for the final spread, the week ahead coming up. fed speak continues with bowman on monday, followed by barkin, logan, harker and williams on tuesday. then, the u.s. inflation print also on tuesday. then, a read from the u.k. on wednesday. finally, u.s. ppi thursday. plus, more fed speak throughout the week. still with us, george bory, zach griffith and eric nelson. it is time for the rapid fire round, we are talking three questions, three quick answers. zach, i want to start with you. which is more likely, that cpi surprises to the upside or the downside on tuesday? >> downside. katie: george. >> downside. katie: eric. >> upside. katie: zach, does the two stents curve invert or on invert in 2023? >> yes. katie: george. >> no. katie: eric. >> yes. katie: u.s. jumped spreads are currently around 400 basis points. zach, do we get to 300 or 501st? >> 300. katie: george. >> 300. katie: eric. >> 50

the head of the cbi the u.k.'ggest business groups in the deal should help people in northern island stop feeling as applied has been on hold for the last couple of years. our island correspondence reports. as political leaders chart a new course for trade between britain and northern island, business group welcoming the deal are hoping it will end years of brexit tensions. i don't think any of that has been helpful, the political instability, lack of understanding about where is all this taking us, is not good for business.— for business. for some businesses _ for business. for some businesses in - for business. for some businesses in northern for business. for some - businesses in northern island the protocol has meant mountains of new red tape. but for others like this manufacturing company the dual market advantage it provides a major benefit at something the new deal now protects. the protocol — new deal now protects. the protocol has _ new deal now protects. iie: protocol has allowed new deal now protects. t

but there is no doubt the thing the chambers are saying as the cbi did just saying and as the cbi didtions for march budget , suggestions for march budget, cbi has done something very similar , talked a lot about the similar, talked a lot about the help that businesses need not just in terms of their own costs on running a business. if you exclude staff issues, but also how to make sure that there are more people available to . do the more people available to. do the work that is necessary , work that is necessary, encouraging more for childcare, for example, which i think is really important. we know the government also trying to get the other 15 back to work . so. the other 15 back to work. so. so there is a lot that needs to be done. you know, if you look at issues, again, huge demand by all organisations to something more than make the various regimes that now exist investment big, more permanent. a lot of uncertainty around with energy . so a lot of uncertainty around with energy. so going a lot of uncertainty around with energy . so going back to what energy. so going back to wh

choosing ireland over the uk for its ne w £320 over the uk for its new £320 million factory and the cbiling for lower taxes. is it time jeremy hunt scrapped that planned corporation tax hike? then knife crime deaths have reached a record in england and wales, according the owen s. there have been 282 homicides committed a knife in the year to march 20 to a whopping 19% rise on the previous year. what's to blame for this fatal rise? and it's been that we have had not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, but 15 housing ministers since the conservatives came to . is this conservatives came to. is this rapid turnover to blame for the government's failure to get to gnps government's failure to get to grips with the housing crisis? but first this morning, the latest results of the gb news people's poll . the conservative people's poll. the conservative vote remains at a flat 21% this week, leaving labour with half of the national vote to the poll. this comes just after the west, lancashire by—election saw labour's ashley dalton voted in the new mp with 8000 more votes than her conserv

cbi this morning. as it fundamentally different to the euro zone in the u.s.?lla: no it isn't. maybe it's a little bit more behind the cycle, but fundamentally, u.k. inflation has peaked. it is largely driven by energy. it should also begin to see some softening include -- in food inflation. you saw a little bit of that. of course, housing is still inflationary and probably underestimated in the current estimates. it will take some more time to come down, but the trajectory is the same. of course, and the u.k., the u.k. has bigger shortage problems in terms of labor and probably also has bigger problems in terms of housing because housing inflation in the u.k. has structural, historical problems and right now, these are going to be inflationary for quite a long time still. tom: ok. just very briefly, do with the boe hike again in march? raffaella: it's plausible that we peek at 4.5 but even at four we are in restrictive monetary policy territory. tom: ok, raffaella tenconi, chief economist and founder of 88 economics on the inflation prints out of the u.k. and

and the head of the cbi, the uk�*s biggest business group, said the deal should help people in northernrrespondent emma vardy reports. as political leaders chart a new course for trade between britain and northern ireland, business groups welcoming the new deal which they are hoping will end years of brexit tensions. i don�*t think any of that has been helpful. i think the political instability, the lack of understanding about where is all this taking us is not good for business. for some businesses in northern ireland, the protocol has meant mountains of new red tape, but for others, the dual market advantage. something the new deal now protects. the northern ireland protocol has really allowed us to continue to operate as we were pre—brexit. while the rest of the uk exited and indeed northern ireland did, the protocol provided a mechanism that allowed us to continue to trade freely with the rest of the european union and also with the uk, where many of our competitors who are based on the uk mainland don�*t have. one of the problems negotiators were trying to solve was suppliers in br

. >> at cbi, there is a gunman here. he says he has a bomb. remember me, stop hate. little painful to remember, little painful to remember. >> around 8:00 that night, the negotiations deteriorated and the gunman grew agitated. >> do something, okay? >> his demeanor changed. it was much more demanding with deadlines, ultimatums. that's when i authorized our hostage rescue team to execute a deliberate hostage rescue. >> and at the exact same moment. >> for the first time all day he didn't have his hand on the trigger. and so i told the guys to run. >> we ran and we went through that door as fast as we could. >> and what you're seeing is that escape. the colleyville crisis was just one in an alarming rise this anti-semitic attacks across the united states. >> the threat is serious. >> you're the deputy director of the fbi. the fact that you thought it was important enough to sit down to talk about anti-semitism in america, what does that say about the threat? >> the threat level against the jewish community is historic, and over the last few years it's been on the rise.

is it the uk, the cbi is calling for lower taxes. the cbi is calling for lower taxes . is it time the lower taxes. is it time the chancellor scrapped that planned hike in corporation tax in the next budget? well, we're joined by business and finance commentator writer michael wilson. good morning to you, michael. what do you make of this decision then by astrazeneca to move to ireland and astrazeneca , as steven said, and astrazeneca, as steven said, is not an inconsiderate move company. it's the second largest on the 100. it has about 8000 people employed in the uk and which has about 83,000 employees throughout the world. and basically what it's doing is it's joining and joining the narrative that a lot of large companies are actually saying right now, this is about time that the uk got back in the game, really trying to attract investment. it's going to raise corporation tax in the next budget from 19 to 25, which is not going to attract new business and whether you think business and whether you think business is good or bad, it

say we are losing — people like the cbi say we are losing the race on green energy, when _ losing the not getting a deal-— getting a deal. kate, what did you make of what _ getting a deal. kate, what did you make of what grant _ getting a deal. kate, what did you make of what grant shapps - getting a deal. kate, what did you make of what grant shapps had i getting a deal. kate, what did youj make of what grant shapps had to say? make of what grant shapps had to sa ? , , say? the first thing is in the rivate say? the first thing is in the private sector _ say? the first thing is in the private sector it _ say? the first thing is in the private sector it would - say? the first thing is in the private sector it would be i say? the first thing is in the - private sector it would be pretty unusual— private sector it would be pretty unusual to — private sector it would be pretty unusual to have _ private sector it would be pretty unusual to have a _ private sector it would be pretty unusual to have a lot _ private sector it would be pretty unusual to have a lot of - private sector it would

with the cbi party to cut tax.he cbi now pressuring the chancellor into announcing tax breaks for businesses in the spring budget as last chance to help the economy avoid a recession this yeah economy avoid a recession this year. so i want to ask do you think now is the right time for tax cuts or? do you worry like jeremy hunt , that it could be jeremy hunt, that it could be inflationary ? let me know. but inflationary? let me know. but to debate this , i am now joined to debate this, i am now joined by the director of the orthodox , joseph robertson and emeritus professor of theology at the university of nottingham john milbank. thank you very much indeed. i'm just going to have a little sip of my water very sorry about that , joseph. so tax sorry about that, joseph. so tax cuts. yes. or tax absolutely necessary, i think we're at the point in time where what does that even mean to be conservative government if you can't debate whether or not tax cuts should be happening immediately? don't this immediately? i don't

you've the cbi . .you've even had the cbi.t like to make trouble for the government because they need their relationship the their relationship with the government. so it's not tory backbenchers, it's not just gobby journalists me . it's gobby journalists like me. it's now business thoroughbreds do not raise corporation tax . what not raise corporation tax. what else could jeremy hunt do with 56 billion? because of course, the temptation would be to have some kind of tax giveaway before a general election in next year happen. but a of income tax costs about 5 billion quid. so you could take ten pay of income tax across board imagine. wow liz truss will be i completely forgot. i told you . anyway i'm forgot. i told you. anyway i'm back around backbenches. that's not going to happen. but the scale of the amount of money 56 billion that's that's getting of what we spend on sky every year. it's a big chunk of change right . however let's reflect that the if as and as you say you know they're as honest brokers is also pointing to t

a lot of people interpreted the last cbi print as being bearish, we look at cbi-r.n it was. we think this uptick in rates is temporary and when we get pce core, that will be a data point that supports our view versus what is happening in the markets. guy: what do think the number will look like? jay: we are estimating .3%, the bloomberg consensus is .4%, but we are also bullish about long-term pc core and forecasting we get to write around 3% by june and close to 2% by the end of the year, driven by commodities and those are the key drivers of high inflation, not the labor market, like the fed believes. we are from her bullish than the fed and to a lesser degree the market. guy: just to boil it down, you think the fed is wrong to focus on the labor market, because jay powell is spending a lot of time talking about it. jay: absolutely. they believe in the phillips curve, which is that inflation is driven primarily from the wage market. the wage market is stable and sticky and particularly high inflation, it is almost exclusively driven by the two factors i mentioned.

the cbi heavily , the decisions.ing to have our voices heard during covid, the supply chain with with the people that got most of affected, you know, the pubs got grants and support. we didn't as a brewery, we skills allowance, we got the furlough scheme . but we got the furlough scheme. but aside from that, we're still very much recovering that overhang and it's easy. yeah and it's not easy getting around these days i'd say as well, you get less people volunteering to say i'll get this. yeah i got this. i mean less and less of that, i'm sure. and good luck to you. charlene lyons is the chief executive of black sheep brewery. cheers thanks for having me . thank you. we will be having me. thank you. we will be back at the top of the hour with all the latest on today's inflation figures here on gb news. we'll be keeping you in the picture, finding out what's happening across the country, finding out why it matters to you. we'll have the facts fast with team of reporters and specialist correspondents wherever happening

the independent reports on what they call a hammer blow for the as a former cbi chief, labour is nowdressler says starmer was winning the argument over rishi sunak the guardian leads with police missing clear chances to identify wayne cousins as a sex offender and danger to women before he went on to murder sarah everard . it's the daily sarah everard. it's the daily mirror exclusively m25 road rage killer kenneth neu has called on the woman whose evidence put him away for 19 years. daniel cable, to come out of hiding, claiming he is no longer a danger. and on the front of the daily mail url as the united states warns of a growing threat from china , sunak growing threat from china, sunak has warned that the uk is ready to shoot down spy balloons . the to shoot down spy balloons. the vow comes after the us for down suspected spy devices the past nine days by superstar panel. back with me now, top daily express columnist carole malone, senior porter at the ie newspaper, benjamin and the former brexit party and political commentator belinda to lucy . now a bombshell new book lucy. now

the independent reports on what they call a hammer blow for the as a former cbi chief, labour is nowdressler says starmer was winning the argument over rishi sunak the guardian leads with police missing clear chances to identify wayne cousins as a sex offender and danger to women before he went on to murder sarah everard . it's the daily sarah everard. it's the daily mirror exclusively m25 road rage killer kenneth neu has called on the woman whose evidence put him away for 19 years. daniel cable, to come out of hiding, claiming he is no longer a danger. and on the front of the daily mail url as the united states warns of a growing threat from china , sunak growing threat from china, sunak has warned that the uk is ready to shoot down spy balloons . the to shoot down spy balloons. the vow comes after the us for down suspected spy devices the past nine days by superstar panel. back with me now, top daily express columnist carole malone, senior porter at the ie newspaper, benjamin and the former brexit party and political commentator belinda to lucy . now a bombshell new book lucy. now

yesterday's cbi -- financial conditions have failed to tighten enough.tic of that concession. jim, this time is different within consumer america. we are off the pandemic. are we acting almost in a broken state because this time is different after the shock of a pandemic or is this typical loom from stimulus? -- typical boom from stimulus? jim: i think it is typical boom from stimulus. a lot of the stimulus money we saw handed out in 2020 and 2021 has not been spent. these people still have spending power. we do not see a booming economy but we see numbers continuing to move forward. retail sales numbers are expected to rebound. they are expected to be up a decent amount, maybe 2% meaning that spending will be continuing. if we are talking about a recession and a pivot, and we are talking about 3.4% unemployment. i have to think that at the federal reserve they look around and say "i don't think we should even think about pivots." tom: it gets back to 5.5%, and that gets us back to a bob seeger economy. i was mentioning the giant of the midwest there. gr

then you've got the cbi putting pressure on rishi sunak not to raise corporation tax.t very depressing decision from astrazeneca not to set up its new building in the north—east of england , but to go north—east of england, but to go to ireland instead where corporations is lower. so you've got lots and lots of pressure there coming from pretty much all sides and it's not corporation tax. it's very all the tax rises to these stealth tax rises which we keep hearing about, which would pull many more working people into higher tax brackets. now you wouldn't have to have that many conservative mps opposing these sort of tax rises if labour decided to vote against the government . whether labour will government. whether labour will do that isn't quite clear yet . do that isn't quite clear yet. keir starmer as know, sometimes enjoys a little bit of fence setting. he has been previously quite stringent on being the increase in corporation . he said increase in corporation. he said before the experiment, george osborne's experiment for lowering corporation tax hasn't paid divi

the cbi praised it, the institute of directors praised it.the ibm, which is a family business network, praised it. the daily mail put on their front page at last a real tory budget . but front page at last a real tory budget. but you front page at last a real tory budget . but you know, this the budget. but you know, this the fact is that she was stitched up like a kipper by those in the establishment. my i think many in her own party that didn't really understand what was truly going on, particularly as you said with the is and i think the person that needs to be holed up in front of a lot of serious questioning is the you know, the bank of england and indeed, the pensions regulator. this i mean, look, these old eyes , it might look, these old eyes, it might be quite complicated for economic idiots like me to understand and possibly you don't know how how much you understand the lda and how the leveraging caused us such problems with the market. but she should have known . it's all she should have known. it's all very well for us to not know

they're even losing the confidence of businesses , the confidence of businesses, the head of the cbied business is losing confidence. our constituents struggling economy is not growing . we have economy is not growing. we have to do something. would you would you go back to the 19% or if you were in power next week, scrap the increase in corporation tax? would that be a key a key policy for you ? i mean, may be amazing for you? i mean, may be amazing to be in government next week . i to be in government next week. i don't think that's going to happen somehow . what we have happen somehow. what we have said for the immediate short term measures is that in the budget, there's two things that we want to prioritise. one thing is strengthening the windfall tax. i know the government have bought in a windfall tax, but we're asking them to strengthen it, bring in £13 it, which would bring in £13 billion in terms of strengthening , in terms of i strengthening, in terms of i don't know how much you want me to go into detail, but what we is to be backdated to 2022 when labour first asked for t