today cbo released the budget and economic outlook for 2025 to 2035. the full document is on our website, cbo.gov, along with a one-pagers showing the key numbers. i will talk briefly first about our projections for the federal government and then those for the economy. on the budget. from 2020 five to 2035 debt rises as increases in spending on social security, medicare, and interest payments outpaced growth in revenues. federal debt held by the public rises from 98% of gdp at the end of 20 to 100 18% in 2035. the project that in 2029 debt will surpass its high in 1946 106% of gdp. social security's old age and survivors insurance trust fund will be exhausted in 2033, which is the same year we reported in our projections last year. the projected federal budget deficit in 2025 is one point $9 trillion, and that grows to $2.7 trillion by 2035. measured in relation to economic output, the deficit over that period is about 50% larger than its historical average over the last 50 years. these deficits are especially large given the unemployment rates we are

it is something we analyze at cbo and we have a lot of expertise in doing that. and we have done that. last month we put out a letter that was requested by several democratic senators, including leadership or, with information -- including leader schumer, with information. an increase on tariffs on everyone, and an additional on china. we provided that information on the budgetary and economic impacts and how those two fit together. we are set up to do that. if there are tariff changes that are put in place in the new administration by administrative action, by the executive authority of the president, in the normal course of business those would be reflected in our next budget update, which, i don't know when that would come out, but that is likely sometime in the spring. it is typically after the release of the president's budget. if a member of congress wanted information on those tariff changes sooner, of course we could and would provide that. if tariffs are put in place through legislative action, of course we would generate a cost estimate and transmit tha

so -- what -- what do you get from the feeling of the meeting you had with the k cbo's? how are you feeling you will have follow up before february third? >> if i may commissioner in terms of our goal the cbo's to update them in a way they heard the same message around mayor's instructions and the current state. it is also clear when mayor lurie's priorities are. in terms of the thing this is need to be done including where the expectations with regard to behavioral health. so as part of the budgeting process. the priorities will be prioritized. in terms of resources and -- begin the challenge this is we have and the rapidly changing environment. i asked madea clear that you met the priorities need to be emphasized in our budget process. this this is a very a situation what continues to change. based on the thing this is you are talking about. and we will come become to the commission on february third with a proposal will that reflects mayor's priorities and also reflects the changes that we have been required make according to the mayor's directive and that deadline is

stephanie: this is a game and the cbo is an important player. in many ways it's a number on papers game but cbo gets to weigh in and take a look and if republicans say that tax cuts will deliver a boon in terms of growth in revenue, cbo might see it another way with other parts of the republican agenda presented as so-called pay for's and republicans at the end of the day are going to have to decide how much of this they are willing to allowed to fall to the deficit to get the things they really want to achieve, even if it means not offsetting all the spending. scarlet: do you see the incoming white house just printing the money needed to finance deficits? stephanie: well, that's not what they suggest, it's not like a prescription for modern monetary theory, it's more of a prescription for analysis. if republicans took that lens seriously, they would realize there is no revenue constraint. they can afford to spend whatever congress is willing to vote for. the lens is there to say before you do that, make sure you are thinking carefully about the

i want to refute this cbo score on extending the tcja. back then they scored the whole thing as $1.5 trillion. if you just inflate that same way cbo, according to cpi it would be to trillion dollars. how to justify a score of 4.3, $4.6 trillion. makes no sense. when you to take his estimates with as huge grain of salt. my final point, her directed member talk about inflation and the cost of living. because we've incurred these massive deficits, in 19 $98 straight $1998 it's only worth 51 cents. 20 $14 today is worth only $.74. a 2019, dollar 2019, dollar is only worth 80 cents. that was caused by this massive deficit spending, the devaluation of the dollar, and a lot of devaluation has occurred over the last four years because we spent too much money. not, not because we didn't tax american dollars. because we spent too much money. thank you, mr. chairman. >> thank you. senator cantwell. >> thank you very much, mr. chairman. mr. bessent, congratulations on your nomination. i see your family sitting there in earnest on these economic issue

so -- what -- what do you get from the feeling of the meeting you had with the k cbo's? are you feeling you will have follow up before february third? >> if i may commissioner in terms of our goal the cbo's to update them in a way they heard the same message around mayor's instructions and the current state. it is also clear when mayor lurie's priorities are. in terms of the thing this is need to be done including where the expectations with regard to behavioral health. so as part of the budgeting process. the priorities will be prioritized. in terms of resources and -- begin the challenge this is we have and the rapidly changing environment. i asked madea clear that you met the priorities need to be emphasized in our budget process. this this is a very a situation what continues to change. based on the thing this is you are talking about. and we will come become to the commission on february third with a proposal will that reflects mayor's priorities and also reflects the changes that we have been required make according to the mayor's directive and that deadline is ver

from cbo, this shows you why we ought to take cbo projections with a grain of salt. for seven years, total revenue $27 trillion. actual revenue was $28.7 trillion. the original score was 1.5 trillion dollars lost revenue. we paid for the tax cut and in seven years generated $200 billion more revenue, with the covid recession. we need to take cbo scores with a grain of salt. hope this committee understands your tremendous american success story. hypothetical. you understand american families. they normally spend $100,000. they have a serious health crisis. one year they have to spend $50,000 on medical bills. that family member gets well. what would that family spend next year? real quick. mr. bessent: unless they have more income -- they would spend the same $100,000 and have debt associated. sen. johnson: they would not do what the federal government has done. when the pandemic ended, we did not reduce spending. is there any justification for keeping spending levels at this level. mr. bessent: as i have said repeatedly, the u.s. does not have a revenue problem. sen.

this is not confirming cbo numbers, this is why we ought to take cbo numbers with a grain of salt. after it was passed, cbo predicted 10 years, but for seven years that we experience, total revenue of $27 trillion. actual revenue was $28.7 trillion. to do the math, one point $7 trillion more than what cbo estimates. the original score was 1.5 trillion lost revenue. we not only pay for the tax cut in seven years, we generated $200 billion more revenue, even with the covid recession. we need to take cbo scores with a real grain of salt. i hope this committee understands what senator graham was talking about in terms of your humble beginnings and your tremendous american success story. i want to ask you a hypothetical because you understand american families. if an american family normally spends $100,000, serious health crisis. in one year they have to spend one hundred $50,000 on medical bills. fortunately, that family member gets well. what would that family spend the next year? just real quick. mr. bessent: unless they have more income -- they would spend the same 100 and probably

cbo projected "residential investment is reduced throughout the entire." now they say extending these provisions will strengthen the economy in the long run. given the tax cuts did not trickle down, we should focus on the regional impact. who got what? extending these expiring provisions, the average tax cut for the top 1% of households is 60 times larger. even these numbers are rosie. you were talking about a bill that will add $4 trillion to the deficit over 10 years. this is money we are borrowing that we will have to pay back one day in the form of tax increases or spending cuts. our range of analysis estimates this would cost typical families thousands of dollars. alternatively, they can pursue cuts. elon musk has proposed $2 trillion in spending cuts. literally, this would cut every program in the budget by one third including medicare, social security, food inspection and research. the easiest way to offset the tax cuts is to not offset them. there is no free lunch. the tax cuts will have to be paid for eventually. in the meantime, higher deficits c

what cbo and joint tax score a congressly created scoring system, which is always inaccurate.: the other thing is this account about the current services baseline. these spending programs go on forever, they are not scored as deficit increasers, but if tax cuts are coming in, they go on forever they are scoredda way, like whole system is geared for government to take your money. rather than for you to keep more of what you have earned. >> that is right. let's not be fooled. if we have a 4.3 trillion ddollar tax increase, congress would spend it on new spending. the taxes, they don't get the same treatment, i think that americans can see through this. larry: one last one senator. if mr. trump goes for a universal tariff of 10%, which is you know europeans had 20% vat, 10% tariff. you know, you would make -- in static terms, 5 trillion worth of imports 10% tariffs would be 500 billion dollars worth of revenue, those are inact estimates there is a good deal of truth in we put on mr. trump puts on that tariff you will raise a moa lot of money to help finance a lot of different thi

there has been over the last year a lot of discussion about what we properly call cbo grants and what we call professional services contracts. the city attorney's office has been refining its definitions and so we may have a little bit of shifting back and forth between professional services contracts and cbo grants and that it's a definitional question in terms of how we categorized them for practical purposes. there is a slightly different process in entering into a cbo grant agreement and a es services contract than the professional services contracts go through the civil service commission and the office of contract administration as part of the approval process. so it's a more it's a slightly more complicated process. >> okay. next slide. so when we look at the big picture of the city's financial situation and this is based on forecasting that was done in november, what we are seeing is a projection for a two year deficit of $876 million. so a fairly substantial deficit by san francisco standard. most of that is in the second year. in the first year as i mentioned a moment ago, w

because how -- just wrong this cbo is in how they score these things.mic scores that happens by you lower taxes, revenue through treasurys go up they don't -- recognize that. there are a lot of people in republican conference that don't understand it. larry: speaking of revenues rich, i have newfound respect when i just learned over weekend that irs agents pack guns, i thought they were a bunch of thick-glassed accountants, now i know they are packing i think that trump is right in sending them to the border all 88 thousand of them, i have new report for them. >> if we tax people coming in margin rate is high enough. larry: why note they are packing gun -- why not, let them do the lord's work instead of runnings after waitresses and waiters and uber drivers. >> under lining a point that jason made everyone is afraid of trump. there is a concept called you make someone so afraid of what you do to them they do what you want, we saw it in colombia, we see it in the world, i think and also at play here dommist like. >> he made them pound sand in colombia, s

first of all, the cbo and joint tax committee are always wrong and 2017 tax cut and not only paid formselves and they unfortunately paid for a lot of other things and they had a few things. why is this the way the cbo does it. >> every american having every common sense understands that and changing the tax code and extending current policy and you are not increasing the deficit. bottom line is 3 trillion tax increase not a 4.3 trillion deficit increase. you've indicated it. we grow the chips act and we say people -- economy and tax increases that hurt them terribly and we give perm nancy to the tax code -- perm seizure disorders to the tax -- permanente to the tax code and congressionally larry: if tax cuts come in and they go on forever and it's hard for deficit raisers and it's like the whole system is geared for government to take your money rather than for you to keep more of what you earn. >> that's exactly right and not being fooled by this and if we had a $4.3 trillion tax increase, congress would use to spend on new spending. that's a tax and spend philosophy and you indicate

and the cbo that applies to dbi cbo grants, which are dbi only general fund supported expenditures. were given the amount that will be in the department's budget submission. that's the $3.672 million, down from the 4.32 as approved last year. there is a lot of uncertainty with the budget overall. we have a new mayor, a new administration coming in, so it remains to be seen what the new administration will do, what changes they will make in the mayor's budget office, what their priorities will be. so we have i think the whole city is in a general holding pattern. they've been told to make these reductions for now, and then we will have new conversations in the mayor's phase of the budget with the new administration. and also recently, after this presentation was developed, we learned some news about one of the cbos that i'd like to share, casa justa just cause one of the smaller psyop program cbos has let us know that they will close permanently and cease operations very soon, december 20th. so we're meeting with them to determine what that means, what the impacts are. are they shutt

i'm averaging numbers that we have but i think the average cbo this euronext is like 3.1. i'm sort of remembering that in my head. in my new york fed lecture which we do for you to again, i went to basically the forecast revisions both all around the world and lots of people have moved up right around three. given that we are in a world where we were thinking we might be stuck in the ones, that's quite impressive movement. if it ended up being 2.9, attempt off of three, then that would still be a good year. >> paul from the "washington examiner" ." >> kind of unrelated question. having worked with politicians, how is trump different being a businessman? how does the approach your information differently than say others? what are your chances for the tao under 36,000 and trump? >> president trump, i'm each person you work with has their own style and so on but i think for the most part president trump's style is similar to that of mitt romney. a little bit of romney, a little bit of mccain. even going back to teaching governments in batch of school come the problem is you'v

this is partly on our department to be clear that we have metrics we want to meet to help the cbo's meethem and show case to the board to you all on commissions we are meeting those moving forward. in terms of contractual services professional services we hire, there will be a lot of scrutiny. anything not performed by staff look at those we don't have a lot of those osb it is something this is citywide direction. eliminate vacancies on staffing side don't add new ft e's the hiring we do are replacing positions vacant and everything stable and very hiring freezes no layoffs that is good. but it does mean we will have to work with when we have. basicly on a■j personnel basis. and there are pending directions and i'm sure we will get more. for now e eliminate redundancy so we make sure across department and it is city level that we are not doing the statement thing in different places. and then this is a not note that does in the mean a lot to the commission when we do nonprofit contracts every year we see cost of living or cost doing business increase of 3 business acided to that. it incr

hill: look, annmarie, cbo also said the tax cuts and jobs act would not produce increased revenues overndow. you have seen record revenue pour into the country. people bringing taxable income back, gdp growth, job growth, wage growth all up in those years following the tax cuts and jobs act and before the impact of the pandemic. i don't believe house republicans are governed completely by the opinions of cbo exclusively, even though it's an incredibly important component. we have seen how in error estimates are from the joint tax committee and from cbo, not recently but for the past 50 years. annmarie: you are now the chair of a powerful committee, the house financial services committee. we see a number of representatives going to mar-a-lago this upcoming weekend. will you be there and what do you plan to discuss with president-elect trump? rep. hill: president trump has invited the committee chairs to a dinner and we will be talking about our priorities we have for the first few months of his administration and getting his views on those. annmarie: what are your priorities specifically

sin embargo, los servicios de binacional y de las otras cbo siguen.lvan virtuales o que se vuelvan por medio del teléfono. ahorita tenemos el medi-cal, estamos trabajando en un proyecto para tener un una un call center. actualmente esta organización también está brindando servicios de orientación y conectando a las personas con otras organizaciones pro inmigrantes aquí en el valle central. si usted ocupa más información, puede llamar al número de binacional de california central al 559 905 454 9 o también puede venir aquí a este centro que se encuentra ubicado en el centro comercial manchester, en el segundo piso. desde fresno. yo soy abraham peña. telemundo vital información para nuestra comunidad en el centro de california. gracias a iglesias de diferentes doctrinas religiosas, se preparan para proteger también a los inmigrantes ante las nuevas medidas migratorias. por ejemplo, la iglesia católica, a través de un comunicado que firman todos los obispos y el cardenal de california, reiteran su apoyo a los migrantes y programas de asesoría legal con l

extend trump era tax cuts that the cbo says could pay $5 billion. conservatives who wants you to pay for that, conservatives to find 2.5 trillion in savings to rise the debt ceiling and pass the border bill and one member thomas massie says he will not support hr2 and you have no room for error in your margin. so, just to start off with a lighthearted question. how are you sleeping these days? >> well, in the three hours that i'm allowed to sleep, i sleep pretty welcome. >> three hours, is that right? >> that's about right, my average lately. there's been a lot going on. a lot of big ticket items that we have an accomplish, clearly. we have a very aggressive agenda, the first 100 days for us is going to be very busy. how do i manage all that and keep it all calm, it really is my world view. i believe very much in pt hand of providence and i'm not ultimately in charge, i believe there's a sovereign and he's the one in children and we do our duties. onquincy adams, duty is ours, a way to live, do your best every single day and leave the higher. >> and

it seems like they were focused on cbo and contract spending and so, you know, kind of looking through your your set of solutions that you guys propose, it looks like a good chunk of them i think about 30% would kind of be cbo funding of what you're proposing of the $13.8 million. >> so i actually thought it would be a little bit higher if i'm being honest with you because it did sort of seem like the guidance was pushing the department towards, you know, protect protect your staff and cut the external spend where possible so i was a little surprised to see that the cbo cuts that low. >> i mean it sounds like there might be some opportunities on the pit stop program to to minimize the impacts while still reducing the spending. so i would you know, encourage to continue kind of going down that road as much as we all like having the pit stops again, it's it's not about what we want right? it's about what we can afford at this point. and and i do think it will be interesting at the next sort of presentation you do before this commission and maybe before you submit something to the mayor's

i am in favor of more nuclear plants and i would note that the ira as scored by the cbo is wildly outrgy package does protect nuclear because members on both sides of the aisle wanted it to be that way. but if you're going to talk about fossils, the united states achieve a greater level of energy security and we had in generations. oil and gas production is at record highs and it's not just that but it's about clean energy. i'm very troubled by your position denying that we're in an arms race with china and clean energy because we definitely are. thank you, mr. chairman. >> we do need to move on. i told senator wyden he could have those four question but what went of widows we've got a five minute time limit. senator grassley. >> congratulations. i want to start out where you and i talked about something in my office, and you remember that tongue-in-cheek, i make to you that you were going to be asked by the chairman william and all of our letters, and everybody that comes to vail says yes they're going to. and i said maybe you better say may be because most people don't keep that pro

office, both the previous administration and the current administration look at nonprofits, look at cbo allocations. that's what we're doing. we're looking at the pit stop program and i won't bore you but i've got ample data that is really looking at the usage of the pit stop program to see where we can reduce that program and not have a significant impact. there's going to be an impact because there's not one of those toilet facilities that has no use. so we're looking to where we can minimize impact potentially close shift ours. >> that's what we're doing. we've got the data actually doing a trend analysis on an hour by hour basis and we're looking to see what the impact is and then we're going to take it so far as sometimes we have our own trailers that we can always put out because they're under repair. we're looking to see if we can quantify any impact for those locations. so let me just give an example . if we have a pit stop at buena vista west on haight street but if it's down for a few days for repair or we're looking at the service order data are we seen and those days a spike

we saw economy grow twice the rate of any other major economy our tax revenue come in at 30% above cbo predicted and lower unemployment. we need to get back to that place, we need to make it happen, i at agree with you, quickly as we come. larry: all right, happy new year, appreciate you coming on. senator bill hagerty, senator dan sullivan, appreciate it. >> it greenland going maga? we will ask steube and robert abr o'brien next up on kudlow. so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. [coughing] hi susan, honey? yea. i respect that, but that cough looks pretty bad. try this robitussin honey. the re

because how wrong the cbo is in how they score these types of things and don't look at it and don't lookognize and thanksgiving and a lot of people from the republican conference and going for that and i must say going for that and it's on the weekend and going for that and irs going for the pact of guns and it's on the lineup. going to send them to the boarder and marginal rates high enough and coming in on this. it's packing gun sent to the bodder and going for them to work and it's running after waitresses like they do now. underlining the point they made just a minute ago and everyone is afraid of trump and we know in international theory going for them with another concept called compel atlantas and dg what they want -- compel atlanta and going to see it around the world i think and it's also going for them. >> can i talk about irs agents and going to be packing on that. it's going right and you don't want them to send your six and that's going to be there and they've taken literally thousands of border patrol agents and have them over here doing paperwork and they'll be able to go

the cbo says the u.s.looking at a $1.9 trillion rise that will bring the total deficits to $22 trillion over this decade. the president of the responsible federal budget committee has demanded that congress commit to no new borrowing in order to keep that deficit from rising. walgreens is facing a lawsuit from the department of justice over dispensing unlawful prescriptions. the doj claims the drug provider issued millions of dangerous opioid and other drugs without confirming they were valid. they also claim that some walgreens patients died of overdoses after getting invalid prescriptions from walgreens. the company denies those claims that they had pressured pharmacists into dispensing the drugs. in a statement, they said the doj was suing them over, quote, rules that simply do not exist. efforts in containing the spread of the bird flu are expanding. the department of agriculture announced that another six states have enrolled in the national milk testing strategy. so now 36 states are testing milk tan

cbo found 5 hundred billion spent on expired programs.$4 billion in overpayments. >> the major problem is -- >> i think it's important to get bipartisan support behind these issues because that's the only way you have enduring change. >> doge critics say unless they tackle entitlements and defense they fail. that's not true. the dollar saved is one lesson they will take from you. maybe embarrassment will work where consensus hasn't. turning rhetoric into work in washington. >> bill: we'll watch it on the way. nice to see you on the way. thanks. >> dana reads sports. >> dana: it's called black monday. jackson is cutting loose doug peterson. at least five teams are in the market for a new head coach. now i understand what the woman next to me was talking about at the nail salon last night. all this stuff how it was like a bad day in football and everybody was getting fired. >> bill: it's what happens when your teams don't do well. >> dana: how are the bengals? >> bill: they le

but the cbo inflation calculations did not include imported electronics.ll of our electronics are imported. that is a category that would face the highest price increases, as much as 60% price increases. republicans showed no consistent governing capacity during the first trump presidency, with republican house members in open revolt against their own leadership. it's a habit that they just cannot break. in the "new york times" jamel buie rights this about the incoming trump administration. "compare trump's picks with virtually any other republican white house or cabinet and you'll see a team with shockingly little governing experience and almost no connection to the institutional republican party outside of donations made to affiliated political action committees. trump is not picking from within the broad universe of the republican party. he has no interest in most of the politicians, policy entrepreneurs and experienced bureaucrats who make up most republican administrations. he is interested more or less in people he sees on tv. trump is less concerned

the economy grew at any other rate of a major economy and tax revenues came in at 30% above what the cbo predicted and lower unemployment than we've seen and getting back to that place and make it happen. i agree with you as quickly as we possibly can and that's what the american public voted for and i'm looking forward to working with senator sullivan and all my colleagues to make that happen as quickly as possible. larry: gentlemen, happy new year and appreciate you coming on. senator hagerty and senator o'bryan, thank you. h is greenland going maga. we'll ask bill steube and robert o'brien next up on kudlow.th ♪ and release gels. than tylenol rapid release gels. ♪ also from advil, advil targeted relief, the only topical with 4 powerful pain fighting ingredients that start working on contact and lasts up to 8 hours. so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a do

let me tell you about cbo scoring.obs act, estimated declining revenue $1.5 trillion over ten years. and seven years, we have had increased revenue $1.7 trillion. already played for it plus $200 billion in seven years with this severe covid recession. now they are saying to extend part of the -- $4.6 trillion? i don't believe it. they can justify that. all the rules are stacked, scoring stacked against returning americans' hard-earned money to them, letting them keep it come all toward bigger spending. we've got to break that cycle. >> sandra: are you confident these will get extended? bessent said this is a pass/fail, we have to renew and extend these or else. he's morning of economic calamity. >> obviously we don't want any tax increases. that is table stakes. there is no way we're going to have a massive automatic tax increase in 2026. i would like to take the sign and simplify and rationalize our tax code while we are doing that, preventing a massive tax increase, but in the end all we can really do, we can't agree

>> well, i would argue obviously the doom and gloom from the cbo about what this was going to cost us, we well exceeded revenue projections on all the tax cuts. right. but i do think -- personally i would advocate to getting to 2019 spending levels, whoa have a budget surplus with the revenue we have right now. i think what happened in washington, people went crazy with spending. maria: after covid, yeah. >> we have to have a level reset and be serious. i'm on the doge caucus in the senate. we're looking for ways to save money left and right. maria: cheryl, jump in here. >> andy harris came out yesterday with their idea, from the house freedom caucus. what he's talking about is you have two bills and you alluded to that a moment ago. you have two bills versus the one. i know president-elect trump wants the one. the same time it is the pay fors which maria mentioned, the pay fors within it. you focus on energy, focus on immigration, you focus in particular on the border but then you split it in two. i mean, how do you feel? that's ultimately going to come to your desk. >> i would argue

and i would note that the ira as scored by the cbo, is wildly out of control in terms of spending on the upside. sen. wyden: first of all, the clean energy package does prevent because members on both sides of the aisle wanted to be that way. what if you're going to talk about fossils, the united states has achieved a greater level of energy security and we have had in generations. oil and gas production is at record highs and it's not just that, it's about clean energy and i'm very troubled by your position denying that we are in an arms race with china on clean energy because we definitely are. chair crapo: i told senator wyden he could have those four questions but i want to remind everybody a five minute time limit. senator grassley. senator grassley: congratulations. i want to start out where you and i talked about something in my office and you remember that tongue-in-cheek comment i made to you that you were going to be asked by the chairman will you answer all of our letters and everybody that comes to the hill says yes they are going to and i said maybe you better say maybe.