charlie cook with us for about the next 25 minutes. louisville, kentucky, republican, good morning. >> caller: good morning. i just want to say i'm a great admirer of mr. cook. i'm 51 and c i been watching him since my 20s and his analysis hastc always been very fair, vey spot on. my question -- >> guest: go ahead and make me feel old. >> caller: if the republicans do hold the house of representatives, do you think it will be because the basic nature of the districts that are voting onha will have a republican leaning to them and that there would be like almost a hidden republican vote that comes out that's not be reflected in the pollsters? and that i'd like to ask about the lexington race and kentucky. thank you very much. >> guest: let me do polling districts and then get to andy barr. pulling, a national polls really were not that far off to be honest. their average was clinton up by three points, real clear politics average comes she won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage point. it's pretty close. a national polls off slightly more

host: charlie cook with us for about 25 more minutes this morning. erett from louisville, kentucky. a republican. good morning. caller: good morning. i just want to say i am a great admirer of mr. cook. i am 51, and i have been watching him since my 20's, and his analysis has always been very fair and very spot on. guest: go ahead, make me feel old. [laughter] my question is -- if the republicans do hold the house of representatives, do you think it nature because the basic of the districts that are voting on will have a republican lean to them, and that there will be on was like a hidden republican vote that comes out and is not being reflected in the pollsters? then i would ask specifically about the lexington race in kentucky so far. thank you very much. guest: let me do polling, districts, and then get to andy barr. the national polls were not that far off, to be honest. was up by 3.5%, and she popular vote, which is what the national polls measure. they had the race between romney and obama closer than the three once it ended up being. these nati

. >> we're proud to welcome back charlie cook.r the next hour to discuss the midterm races that you are most interested in and i want to start with the battle for control of the senate.

second, and i've got to credit charlie cook with this observation. it's hard to talk about a wave when it appears that the senate of the house raise are happening in two different universes. third, i am seeing as chairman davis said, we're seeing particularly in some governor's raise it tighten down. the democrats should have put the mexico governor's race away in august. and she's in a lot tougher race than she should be. nevada is right on the bubble. i can go state by state there. it's hard to call. >> david: do you attribute -- how much of this do you or any of you attribute to the president's -- somebody said 43, i think he's at 47. >> 45.3 real clear tonight. >> david: but never higher, that's his peak. >> he has rebounded some. this caravan coming up through mexicoing could have a profound effect on who goes and votes. and how they vote. it's a volatile electorate. >> but there is the desire for check and balance and there is the trend when there's a president to one party to elect the governor than the other party. that trend seems to happen

and charlie cook on the outlook for the midterm elections. journal""washington life beginning at 7:00 eastern this morning. join the discussion. >> with 17 days until the election, president trump has ever rallies planned on behalf of republican candidates. an eventend, there is in nevada where senator dean heller is running for reelection. we will have that life today at 2:00 p.m. eastern. monday, the president heads to houston to campaign for senator ted cruz, who is seeking a second term. also live on c-span starting at 7:30 p.m. eastern. the c-span buses traveling across the country on our 50 capitals tour. we recently stopped in hartford, connecticut and looking forward to the november midterm elections, we are asking folks which party should control congress and why? >> i am an independent voter, so i usually don't have a strong opinion on who takes over in midterms or presidential elections, but this year, i have basically voting democratic. the thingse a lot of that have been happening in the republican party just don't sit well with

what i'm looking for is charlie cook's numbers, toss-up states, versus leec leasuccess lean dem leanepublican. you have 15 races that lean democrats. so sthey need eight are more an they don't have them. the democrats need to get those races moved from toss-up to lean democrat before they can feel secure about the house. >> and how important is this for the gop to keep this flame lit? >> i think it is everything. because i don't think that anybody anticipated the blow back that kavanaugh would create by his testimony and what happened afterwards. and it was the first ray of light that republicans had seen and they were startled i think frankly startled by the enthusiasm kavanaugh generated. i think there was double counting going on, this is terrible for the gop, it will hurt the gop, it is really going to, you know, knock the stuffing out of them. but i think that that change had already happened. in other words, this flight ofu and 2018. i think the run base is a pro-life, blpro gun. and when liberals went after kavanaugh, they decided to circle the wagons around him. and i think p

amy walters with charlie cook put it in more realistic terms a way that is 35 seats or more someme of us were in that timeframe during watergate going back to two great wave elections and that the republicans lost 97 seats almost one quarter of congress but then in 20 democrats lost 59 seats. if democrats need 23 seats will they get 2 25, 27 nobody's predicting much more than that right now sdr after the court packing attempt law 70 and 38 and truman and 46 lost 54 and control over in 30 lost 53 seats and control fdr in the first year of world war ii lost 50 seats lbj 66 lost 48 and in the first midterm of the nixon lost 48 we will not see a wave of that magnitude the look at those 13 nonpresidential elections this is the most important statistic to come out any time the president's job approval is below 50 percent to the party has lost an average of 40 seats lbj ford was at 47 lost 48 event ronald reagan sitting at 40 percent or lost 26 seats bush down at 39 percent obama was at losing 36 seats and 42 percent four years later trump is probably sitting at 43 percent approval right now

charlie cook's political report today has 30 seats as the tossup seats in the house. one of them is a democrat open seat. last week was 31. there were two democrat open seats. but cook moved one of the open democratic seats to the leaning republican. 30 tossup seats to settle control of the house. the democrats need to win roughly a third of those. republicans need to win two-third of them to win the election. but of the 29 republican seats, 23 are occupied by the republican incumbents who ran ahead of trump in the last election. he lost their district to hillary clinton. they ran ahead of him. and they won the district. there is a power of advantage. an advantage to incumbency. power of incumbency. that is where the republicans are hoping that in the tossup seats that the president's numbers continue to inch up a little bit, that the generic ballot closes up a little bit. more importantly, most importantly that the republican candidates are running strong campaigns. like they did two years ago. and hopefully can run far enough ahead of the numbers to bring home a vic

what we do know is over the past three weeks there was a compelling analysis from charlie cook.biggest mistakes democrats made is handling kavanaugh. three weeks ago they could have taken over the senate. they were going to have a blue wave. that is pretty much done at this point. >> it was clear three weeks out. the question is is that going to be sustained or has it peaked. >> given the news cycle, who knows how long it can be sustained? republicans clearly are betting on the fact they think they get a bounce from kavanaugh. they're projecting that. that also could work to republicans disadvantage. you could see a lot of moderate republicans being turned off by the way republicans handled this. democrats could benefit from the entire conversation. >> don't forget, kavanaugh is not approved of by most americans. his confirmation is opposed by most americans. when you talk about whether the kavanaugh spike dissipates, it's a real question. that's why when trump goes off message and makes it solely about trump and he talks about stormy daniels as horse face and talks about body s

take charlie cook, he has 196 solid. >> chris: kind of a bible. >> there are several others but all of the same place, he's got 208 solid to lean democrat seat seats. in 31 toss-ups, to democrat seats, 29 republican seats. the democrats can take control only need ten. if they hold all of those minutes about a third of the toss-up seats republicans we need to take about 71. but it's going to be close and it's going to be a long night. i would suspect we're going to have a large number of races settled by a relatively small of votes. governorship sought a lot, republicans are likely to lose seats simply because they have so many and unfortunately there will be a couple of big state governors in there. >> chris: what do you hear from folks at the white house? do they feel particularly with the kavanaugh confirmation battle that they have blunted the so-called blue wave of democratic advances and to the degree that they still worry about especially losing the house, how worried are they about that? if they lose the house, in terms of intelligence, the impact it's going to have in terms of

cook political report editor, charlie cook, on the outcome of the midterm elections.-span's washington journal at 7:00 a.m. eastern saturday morning. join the discussion. >> this week and on book tv, the mill ford readers and writers festival in pennsylvania. starting saturday at. 2 p.m. eastern with poets are prize-winning journalist susan for loading and her book, "in the dark room." book, alan alda with his "if i understood you, would i have this look on my face?" pulitzer prize winning author francis fitzgerald discusses writing about war. former harpercollins ceo jean friedman on the future of book machine. then on sunday at 1 p.m. contributor onws his book "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong: the case for personal freedoms." watch them mill ford readers and writers festival this weekend on c-span 2's book tv. ♪ announcer: with the midterm elections just days away, watch the competition for control of congress on the span. yourself that candidates and debates from key house and senate races. makes you spend your primary source for campaign 2

and charlie cook on the outcome for the midterm elections. c-span's washington journal at 7:00 a.m.rn saturday morning. join the discussion. coverageive debate here on c-span, as we had west to nevada, where republican senator dean heller is running for reelection against democratic congresswoman jackie y rosen. it's a race that real clear politics has listed as a tossup. ♪ .> two candidates face-off >> because nevada should come first. >> the future is up to you. announcer: tonight is the chance for these candidates to separate themselves on issues that matter most. now, from your local election headquarters, the candidates face off in a live debate, radio hereg on kxnt

and cook political report editor charlie cook on the outlook for the midterm elections.c-span's washington journal live at 7:00 a.m. eastern saturday morning. join the discussion. >> c-span with history unfolds daily. in 1979, c-span was created as a public service by america's cable television companies. and today, we continue to bring you unfiltered coverage of congress. the white house, the supreme court, and public policy events in washington dc and around the country. c-span is brought to you by your kyle and/or satellite provider. prearvelings rothschild senator sheldon white house recently debody republican challenger bob flanders, they answered questionings about the kavanaugh nomnaitionz, the robert mueller special counsel investigation, and healthcare policy. this hour-long debate is courtesy of wpri-12. c-span is your primary source for campaign 2018. >> eyewitness news is your local election headquarters. now, a special presentation rothschild's first televised senate debate. from the wt r pri in east providence welcome to the hour long commercial free debate

later, we will look a key races in the 2018 midterms with charlie cook of the cook political report. host: good morning. a three-hour washington journal is ahead for you. we will talk about the latest from the midterm campaign trail as well as the prospects for young voter turnout. now just 17 days away. we begin this morning on the topic of marijuana. canada became the second country in the world to legalize recreational marijuana nationwide. our question to you is should the united states to the same? if you think marijuana should not be legal

. >> we're glad to welcome back charlie cook to the program. publisher of the cook political report with us for the next hour to discuss the midterm races that you are most interested in and i want to start with the battle of the control for the senate. you wrote a

charlie cook is with us until 10:00 this morning, until our program ends.ublicans, (202) 748-8001. democrats, (202) 748-8000. independents, (202) 748-8002. tell us what races, what you are most interested in. happy to talk about those states with you. as folks are calling in, there is an article in today's "new york times." who is winning the social media midterms? house democrats have more facebook interactions banter opponents. we have seen more articles about voter enthusiasm polls that are out. what numbers should we be looking at? what are the most telling numbers right now to give a sense of what happens in 17 days? guest: i am about a month short of 65 years old, so i am probably not the best person to ask about the impact of social media, but i will say whatever party is out of power has the most challengers, the most younger candidates is more likely to outdo on social media, and right now, that is democrats. my guess is that is true. we're looking at polling. we're looking at election results since november 2016. we look at midterm election patter

the cook political reporter, columnist at the national journal and nbc news political analyst charlie cook me begin with you, i've always said going back to 2004 when people said young voters were going to elect john kerry that any politician waiting for young voters to elect them will be like a bride or groom waiting at the alter, except, of course, the other person never shows up. am i going to be proven wrong this year by young voters? >> i think you will, joe. i think -- i remember lucy -- >> by the way, that would be great. if that's the case, that would be great. but tell us about it. >> every cycle we think about charlie brown and lucy with the football where right before election day she pulls that football back and we are all left disappointed. over the last 32 years young voters have been consistent in the fact that they have chosen not to show up, about one in five have shown up between 16 and 20% over that cycle. however, leading into this election we are tracking the most significant increase of enthusiasm that we've seen in the history of this poll. the good news is i think t

i check at ahead of the particular party and she's confidence >> charlie cook spoke this week at theconomics in new york they know nothing right now. >> very dufifficult >> who knows anything? >> it is like china policy >> i do know we have to go >> we do when we come back, jyum brands y getting a lift the ceo is going to join us. take a look at the market here more "squawk on the street" from the ny in a moment. ♪ ♪ (buzzing) gather new insights, leave your data protected on-site, and put it all to work with ai. the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business. i'm not really a, i thought wall street guy.ns. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-s

. >> a great stack charlie cook noted election about observer how 59% incumbents in district determined election and win when vacated 6% chance of holding that same seat when you have 40 people retired or 50 members of congress started this cycle that are not on ballot in november do math gets grim, conversely on the other side, in senate, you've got north dakota, indiana montana west virginia missouri different places not only president trump win he won by double digits so candidates doing much better than national sort of generic tomorrow. >> where is closeness what races are sort of so close to call, that we should focus on those on election. >> big ones missouri, indiana arizona nevada florida. and, you know, depending on day west virginia starts to get in territory, too states like north dakota pulled away for republicans texas ted cruz pulled away for republicans, there is sort of six states to focus on at this point. >> when you think about the republicans, we have very strong economy they have got to be feeling good everyone cross-country feeling pretty good about pocketbook tha

charlie cook said the republicans are going to lose five to seven seats in the senate and lose controlg are wrong. i don't know yet what is going to happen in the house. i think it's a hard-fought fight. in the senate i believe we will keep the senate. we will gain seats? the senate. senator mcconnell has done amazing job with judges and amazing job of recruiting and fund-raising. i think the senate basically in terms of control is over. schumer will be minority leader. mcconnell will be majority leader. you can argue whether we pick up two seats, three seats or five seats but we'll keep up senate. brian: on labor day the senate was in jeopardy. 538 nixed their credibility. they have had impressive shows in the past. 538 80% chance republicans hold the senate. 80% chance they lose the house? >> yeah. i think that 80% is too high. i think there is possibility the democrats will win the house. talking to people in washington state. i think we win the three critical races there. i talking to people in texas yesterday. it is very clear that the beto o'rourke mythology is disappearing. beco

charlie cook says today, that there are 208 seats that are likely or solid democrat 196 reporter republicanemocrats. it's easier to win for the democrats to win 10 seats out of 31 to take control than it is for the republicans to win 22 out of 31 and keep control, but the key number for the republicans is 23 of those 30 are incumbents and incumbents do have a greater ability to win every one of them one last time around, though trump was losing their district, clinton was winning it they still all won. here is closer numbers 214 democrats, 22 toss up, 199 and again easier for the democrats to win the four out of 22 but again, 17 of those 22 seats that are toss ups they're all held by republicans but 17 of them -- ed: bottom line do you hit republicans can hang on by a few seats? >> they could but the odds are against them let's be clear. it's an uphill fight. it could happen but it's easier if you're at 208 to get to 218 than if you're at 199 or 196 to get to 218 so right now challenges for the republicans to hold on to the seats are toss ups. the senate, i'm sorry? pete: go ahead. >> senat

nancy cook and charlie savage join us as well. i share with our viewers, a collective grown went up in the room when we saw the people in iowa and new hampshire. yes, we're talking about 2020, because people are visiting these 2020 states. we're three weeks exactly from the midterms and we're already looking ahead to the next election. >> it is crazy to think about, i still feel like election night of 2016 was a month ago. there's a large field on the democratic side. we saw that on the republican side in the last election cycle. i think we'll see it this time around, this cycle. we'll have a lot of people throwing their hat into the ring. you just showed a lot of the pictures of folks looking to run on the screen. and people are doing exactly what they should be doing right now, which is going to some of these early states, testing the waters, but also making it clear that 2018 and the midterms are the top priority. >> president trump, though, is also doing what a lot of republicans think he should be doing, which is raising a to

charlie savidge. also white house reporter for politico nancy cook. and "time" magazine senior white house correspondent, brian bennett. all right. as we heard from the president there, charlie, i want to start with you, how likely is trump going to get tough on the saudis? when he was talking about it earlier in the oval office saying it's to be determined how he's going to go about it. >> you know, he's using the words of extreme punishment or whatever, and that's making headlines. when you drill down on it, he's saying there's no way they're going to cancel military sales contracts to saudi arabia, the money is too important, the jobs are too important. as a side note, the $110 billion figure is grossly exaggerated. there's still a lot of money at stake. and if he's not willing to do that and he's already saying, well, they deny it strongly, you know, some of that language is a little reminiscent of his back and forth about whether the russians actually hacked the 2016 election emails and so forth. you see us getting to a situation where maybe he ho

cook like a pro." do you need a hand in the kitchen? >> yes. i always need a hand in the kitchen. >> great. >> i'm making charlie bird pharaoh salad. >> so what isa, behind this book, "cook like a pro"? >> i've never gone to cooking school. i've learned by doing it. i wanted to share it with people, really accessible recipes. how does that sound? so just something i whipped up in a few minutes before you got here. >> just a little light lunch with ina garten. she somehow makes a lunch of braised short ribs and roasted carrots. it's what she does. >> it's easy as that. how easy was that. i find it satisfying to write cook books and know that every single recipe will work. when people serve the food to their friends and family, everybody goes, "you may this yourself?" >> born in brooklyn and raised in connecticut, ina garten didn't begin her culinary career until she was 30 years old. by then she already had married jeffrey garten whom she met when she was 15 nd visiting dartmouth university where jeffrey was a student. >> he wrote me a letter. i'll never forget. remember when people wrote letters? >> sure. >> i remember running through the house.

charlie bird pharaoh salad. >> so what is the philosophy, ina, behin this book, cook like a pro?to cooking school i've learned by doing it. i wanted to share it with people, really accessible recipes. how does that sound? so just something i whipped up in a few minutes before you got here. tl>> just a lit light lunch with ina garten. she makes a lunch ofib brazed r and roasted carrots, it's what she does. >> it's eas as that. >> how easy was that. >> i find it satisfying tocorite books and know that every >>ngle res at this point -- recipe. orn in brooklyn and raised gartennecticut, ina didn't begin her culinary career until she was 30 years old. by then she already had married jeffrey garten whom she met when she was 15 visiting dartmouth university where jeffrey was a student. >> he wrote me a letter. remember wheeople wrote letters? >> sure. >> i remember running through the house. he sent p me atograph and i remember saying, mom, mom, this guy is adorable.e >> m than 50 years later jeffrey still is the leading man in her life. and a well-known supporting character in ina's co

. >> i actually learned how to cook about 15 years ago when our golden retriever knocked me over in the driveway, charlief cooking shows. i got so excited i jumped up made a b.a.lsmic sauce on crutches. steve: not only do they taste good, man, do they look great! kathy has become a great cook. things were going good in our family, until she went to the eye doctor to get a new pair of sunglasses. >> i was diagnosed with ocular melanoma. a very rare, aggressive form of eye cancer. steve: we went to wills eye hospital in philadelphia. the dr. care shields, first examination gave you the bad news. she shade i'm out to save your life. >> one night after a radiation treatment, the whole family was with me. the only thing i could really think of, that i needed to do was get my recipes together so that the kids would always have happy memories. they would make the food they grew up with. steve: that is where we got the idea for the cookbook. we worked on the cookbook over a year to make sure everything was perfect. >> after two years of treatments i've been given a clean bill of health. steve: that is the best n

. >> we're proud to welcome back charlie cook. us for the next hour to discuss the midterm races that you are most interested in and i want to start with the battle for control of the senate. this is what you said. one question that keeps coming back up is whether those who lead the out-of-control demonstrations on capitol hill against the kavanaugh nomination have any idea of how much damage they did. my guess is they do not. i think if you just look at the testimony, dr. ford was compelling and convincing. it was the demonstrations. i lived in washington for 46 years. kinds ofer seen those behavior in the halls of the capitol and senate office buildings. they effectively diminished the effectiveness of her testimony out in heartland america. incrediblen an reaction in senate races. going in, democrats had a 35% chance of getting a majority in the senate. now, it is 5%. >> usually this time of year, we start to look for the surprise in elections. the kavanaugh confirmation the october surprise? wax the reason i do not like the te

at the heart institute we have the fortune of great leadership including charlie cook who played a rolein putting together this event as well as the support of the harken family . >> one thing i have always been proud of in addition to the policymakers is the overall dedication to good government, legislative processes that are efficient and free of corruption, a judicial system and a nonpartisan method of reinforcement leading to fair representative districts. i'm pleased to introduce the moderator for today's discussion. david is the host of the weekly public affairs program. prior to that he served as the director of the paul simon public institute at southern illinois institute and spent 34 years with the des moines register, serving as the political writer. david's knowledge and understanding of iowa's political landscape is matched by very few. lucky for us, they may all be here on the panel with him today. please welcome mr. david jepson. >> thank you joseph and thank you for being here. i want to also acknowledge cspan in their presence here for all they do for american civic li