economy but the intersection between china's economy, china's financial system, chinabusiness, china leadership, china security, and i can't think of anyone in the world who pulls the pieces together more smartly and more prohibitively than the team at csis. i'm delighted that csis would host this book talk, thank you scott and the team there for helping pull this together. as i prepare to launch my book over the internet i was thrilled to be doing it with csis but i also have a concern when you do a book launching person the audience is physically their mac the kind of moral obligation to buy a copy of the book. when you do a book over the internet, perhaps that sense of moral obligation as they are or isn't quite as strong. i devised an extremely clever mechanism, which i'm not going to use to try to ensure i engineer maximum sales to this event. before i start my presentation i would like everyone to raise their right hand and repeat after me b& i tom orlik pledge immediately after the presentation i will order a copy of "the bubble that never pops". that the compul

economy but the intersection between china's economy, china's financial system, china's business, china leadership, china security, and i can't think of anyone in the world who pulls these pieces together more smartly and more comprehensively than the team at sea sif. so i'm delighted that they have this book talk and thank you for helping pull this together. so, as i prepared to launch my book for the internet. i was thrilled to be doing it with sea sif. you do a book launch in person, the audience is physically there and they see a moral obligation to buy a copy of the book. when you do a book launch over the internet, perhaps that sense of moral obligation isn't there are quite as strong. so devise an extremely clever mechanism which i'm going to ensure i engineer maxim sales miss event. so before i start my presentation i like everyone to raise the right hand and repeat after me, i tom orlik. and here you insert you the right name. i'm easily pledged after the preparation i'll order a copy of china, the bubble that never pops. and that's a compulsory part of the pres

economy, but the intersection between china's economy, china's financial system, chinainess, china leadership, china security. and i can't think of anyone in the world to pull those pieces together more smart wily and more comprehensively than the team at csis. so i'm delighted that csis would host this book talk, and thank you, scott and the team there, for helping to pull this together. so as i prepared to launch my book on the internet, i was thrilled to be doing it with csis, but i also had a concern. when you do a book launch in person, the audience is physically there, and they feel a kind of moral obligation to buy a copy of the book. when you do a web, a book launch over the internet, perhaps that sense of moral obligation isn't this or isn't quite as strong. so i've devised an extremely clever mechanism which i'm now going to use to try and insure that i engineer maximum sales from this event. so before i start my presentation, i'd like everyone to raise their right handing and and repeat after me. i, tom orlik, and here, of course, you'd insert your own name,

china. you're not going to be swayed on that. all right. your new book on china, has china won?over your shoulder there. you have said in that book, about china, that in asia, its neighbours, no—one feels comfortable sharing a small room with an elephant, no matter how benign. but the fact of the matter is, many of china's neighbours don't see it as a benign power. there is a new level of concern over china. i mean, let's be clear about that, 0k? because, you know, china, which used to have an economy which was one tenth the size of the united states in purchasing power parity terms in 1980, now is a bigger economy than the united states. so it's become much bigger. and when you become much bigger, it's perfectly natural for the neighbours to be concerned. the big question is, most of the time, are they getting along with china or are they confronting china? and this is the one thing that you have to give credit to china for. most of the time, they're getting along with china. and guess what? for many of... even america's allies in east asia —japan, south korea, philippines, tha

whether us is bigger than china or whether china is bigger than us it doesn't matter that much the key is for china the united states the 2 largest economies in the world they need to get in there are with each other and you knew to figure out a way to deal with each other's differences for example with respect rather than go into each other's juggler rather than trying to wrestle the other side down to the ground because that's not possible the more pressure people i promptly helpful on china the more resilient china becomes and the more the chinese people are rally behind the chinese communist party in our culture are the channels communist party is the largest the political party in the world with more than 93000000 members so i don't think i'm pale really knows what he's talking about the chinese people are really very much united will accomplish plenty of china why because they eat improve the living standards of the chinese people they fight off the coronavirus they save people in the middle of the curler batters even those people in that mine tips for example this is why the commies idea of

china or are they confronting china? and this is the one thing that you have to give credit to china for. ey are getting on with china and guess what? for many, even america's allies, in east asia, japan, south korea, philippines and thailand, they do more trade with china than they do with the united states of america. so the chinese have clearly caused a lot of concern but i believe they are also managing and making mistakes.” believe they are also managing and making mistakes. i was questioning your use of the word benign because when you hear what some of china's neighbours say, particularly pertaining to the fact it has set up military bases in the south china sea, malaysia is very annoyed, vietnam, the philippines, and the malaysian prime minister warned against a new version of chinese colonialism. indonesia, in june this year, sent a letter to the united nations stating that it economic interests are jeopardised by china's territorial gains in the south china sea. i could go on and on with numerous examples. they do not see china as benign, kishore mahbubani.” not see china as beni

china. acting as agents of china. many of them are in the business community. the way china does it is through coercion. hey go to the top official, the bankers, the business people. you want to continue doing business in china, you lobby for us against the trump administration policy against china. it is a serious problem. it has not been fully rectified yet. they're beginning to first of all identified these people and beginning to inform them they could in fact be prosecuted under the foreign agents registration act. which makes it a crime to lobby and be representing a foreign governments interest without first registering. so we have seen a few of those cases surface in recent months. last was the, i think the cap of the four speeches was by secretary pompeo at the nixon library. a very poignant venue for that. before the speech, pompeo was given a tour of the nixon library. they have a separate china exhibit there. or they show this great opening to china which was done back in the 1970s under nixon and kissinger. and yet, the speech was informative because for the first time secretary of state pom

china but what is the cause of them. china has a cinema as far as i can say. for all its faults and there are many of course china wants to get on making business and making pigs in the world. what's going on here of course is that china once again and this has happened before in history china once again is challenging the very notion of western and white superiority. and that is unacceptable well not only is there evidence all of chinese war crimes it's being spread across the media here all all the time but since you mentioned australia scott morrison your prime minister said actually it's no longer inconceivable it's no longer inconceivable that there is a whole war between china and the west whatever that is that in the 75th year anniversary of next arc in iraq shima what did you make of what scott morrison said you think that he's he's showing us what some leaders in nato nations are thinking i don't take a lot of notice of what morrison says to be to be frank with you because morrison is an echo of the us. in the at the height of the pandemic morrison announced $270000000000.00 worth of arms for perhaps the

, china, china because most of the people they look by the aba or bought off by chinaa is the big pot of gold, they say let's use russia instead of china but china is the big problem and i made a much smaller problem, the fact is with hong kong, were saving a massive amount of billions of dollars and is not going to work and cannot work, it's based on the dollar and to the point there is almost no secondary currency, the dollar is stronger now than it's ever been, and will be stronger in my second term and i don't mean from a price standpoint but the pedigree of the dollar unless the biden getzen with his super taxes, he will tax this country into depression like in 1929, if you do what he wants to do, you have to say it i've been pretty good at predicting thanks including saying i would win the election and when it is second time by the way. one of the reasons i'm going to win a second time, people have made a fortune with me and they don't want their 401ks go on down by 75, 80% or more, that is what's going to happen. regulations and taxes, he will regulate everythin

, china, china, because most of these people -- you look at the nba, they're bought off by china and china has a big pot of gold so they say let's use russia instead of china. but china's a big problem. and i've made it a much smaller problem. the fact is, that with hong kong, we're saving a massive amount of billions of dollars it's not going to work. it can't work. it's all based on the dollar. i've made the dollar stronger. i've made the dollar stronger to a point that there is almost no secondary currency, the dollar is stronger now than it's ever been and it will be even stronger in my second term and i don't mean just from a price standpoint, i'm talking about the pedigree of the dollar. unless a biden gets in with his stupid taxes. he'll tax this country into a depression like in 1929. if you do what he wants to do, his plan -- you have to say, maria, at predicting things i've been pretty good, saying i'm going to win the election, i'm going to win it a second time, by the way. one of the reasons i'm going to win a second time is people have made a fortune with me and they

, china, china because most of these people, like you look at the nba, they're bought off by chinat of gold. let's use russia instead of china. but china's a big problem, and i've made it a much smaller problem. the fact is that with hong kong we're saving a massive amounts of billions of dollars. and it's not going to work. it can't work. it's all based on the dollar. i made the dollar stronger, i've made the dollar stronger to a point that there is almost no secondary currency. the dollar is stronger now than it's ever been, and it will be even stronger in my second term, and i don't mean just from a price standpoint, i'm talking about the pedigree of the dollar. unless biden gets in with his stupid taxes. he wants to tax, he'll tax this country into a depression like in 1929. if you do what he wants to do -- maria: so, mr. president -- >> -- pretty good, you have to say, maria, i've been good at predicting things, including saying i was going to win the election. i'm going to win it a second time, by the way. one of the reasons i'm going to win a second time is people have made

and japan china and vietnam china and malaysia china and indonesia china in the philippines why shouldn't western countries like the u.s. side with its own. allies in the region against an increasingly belligerent beijing or all of those powers that you've mentioned from japan to india all have separate issues with china they're not the same so if the united states and others come along and say they are siding with a group of powers they're not the same issue they're siding with does the u.s. really have a very strong view on the disputed border between india and china probably not the u.s. has a separate kind of set of issues than all of these powers and as a separate relationship for instance with japan which is a treaty ally of so these are not the same problem we shouldn't just dump them all together ok fair enough but what about the wider issue which is china seems to have a lot of problems with its neighbors off shore and who doesn't mean you know in europe countries have problems with their neighbors the question is to what exten

china right. he did ministration that comes in in their mind, the vision of china is either a partner or a competitor that looks at how their views about how stable the china'sprojector he is and system is whether or not china economic trajectory that is a net opportunity or risk for the united states. i think the washington has been consumed by it. certain kind of image china. that loots a lot of the risk of the downside of which are definitely there. but add some balance to that conversation. i think we need to continue to investigate and we think about economic policies, towards china. and globally, we have as accurate a picture as we possibly can. and so tom, really think you very much for helping us develop that picture today and with your book. they will have a very long shelf life. i am certain of it. i want to thank our staff. in our intern for organizing today's event. in doing a masterful job. also to our commentators, and terrific commentary. a great dissertation committee. hope we get the van together again and to our audience for tuning in. pressing good questions. and to everybody. please be back with us on september 22nd when we have a rule ou

china. the coming collapse of china. i like the author very much is name is gordon chang. i said don't predict a year that chinawill collapse. leave some flexibility. he said no. it will be 2012. it came out in 2001. vice president penson his speech at hudson said since 2001, china gdp their economic strength has grown by how much? ten times. was data coming collapse? know. in 2012 foreign policy magazine asked gordon give us an article. when will china collapse because that means it won't be a problem very long so he wrote the article. they said give us when it will. i would have said i don't know maybe 2050 or who knows he wrote again 2013. one more year. this point of view infects a lot of thinking about china. looking at the trump administration statements you begin to get idea what the president is saying. number one. he has said at least ten times he has tweeted or said it ten times. if hillary clinton had won the election, china would be surpassing is now. that is extremely important. the president and his team see china as coming close to us with the rate of economic growth, military growth and other in

china? what she would be doing? how can the american people help in the fight against china? and are we at war with china? >> so people need to quit thinking of china as a peaceful economic adversary or economic opponent. that's up with the art. they're not an economic competitor. china has over the last essentially 25 years moved itself away from a full on communist economy to some kind of hybridization of economy while maintaining the same type of communist authoritarian rule that they have had going back to mao and through done shopping, et cetera. so what we need to do -- deng xiaoping -- freedom caucus doesn't take a formal position but we need to do is look back at some of the trade restrictions that we had in place when we were in the cold war with russia and actually pre-clinton era china. the reason i say that is because if you look at the blue water navy china has to do it was building up, we gave that to if you look at the high-tech rocket telemetry the have which allows for missiles, we give that to them. you want me to move on. without enough? >> keep rolling. >> you start taking a look at the

words of wisdom are found in china notjust apply to china, but also europe. that lukashenko apply to chinape. that lukashenko point. with congratulations on his victory from beijing and moscow. whatever sun tzu 40,500 beijing and moscow. whatever sun tzu 110,500 years ago, the fact is that the domination of force in your country can do so could you all kinds of country. —— 2500 years ago. we have a leadership which has loosely formed a camp in supporting each other when it comes to crisis. we have also seen, at the same time, the west trying to form lines for themselves to counter countries like china or russia. at the moment, there is no global leadership. what we have seen is a line sees with each other. going back to the russian story at that ned was talking about. isobel, a word on that situation and what the outside world is about russia? how many seconds do i have too sort the russia problem? any sign of any kind of organisational coherence from europe and north america on the issue? i think, actually, the europe and north america on the issue? ithink, actually, the eu is becoming in

that be china, not russia. >> well listen, china, russia, iran, other actors are all trying to interfere or influence our elections for their own gain, so i don't want to say this is only about china, but china, again, as someone that sees more intelligence than anyone, is the greatest threat to american superiority. economically, militarily, technologically, and they're tough on they're playing in the election or expressing preferences for vice president biden over president trump because president trump has been tough on china. china has enjoyed a $500 billion annual trade surplus that the president won't tolerate, and so those are one of the reasons that china is doing the things that they do. maria: so director, tell us how congress will be briefed then in the future. you will still be giving briefings in terms of election securities. how will it be different then? >> we'll do what's required by law. those members entitled to the briefings and classified information will still get that information. what we won't be doing is all member briefings to all members of the house and all members of the senate, and we've tried that , and the information hasn't been protected and so we'

china. china's enjoyed a $500 billion annual trade surplus that the president won't tolerate, and so those are one of the reasons that chinathings that they do. maria: so, director, tell us how congress will be briefed then in the future. you will still be giving briefings in terms of election security. how will it be different then? >> yeah. well, we'll do what's required by law. those members that are entitled to briefings and classified information will still get that information. what we won't be doing is all-member briefings to all members of the house and all members of the senate, and, you know, we've tried that, and the information hasn't been protected. and so we've implemented procedures where we'll primarily brief through written materials, but then we'll also provide briefings to the members that are entitled to it as we've done before. and so make no mistake, congress will be fully and currently informed as required by law. there's no issue with respect to that. we're going to do what we're supposed to do. but what we're also going to do is protect information from getting leaked for mitt cam purposes. -- poli

china. >> was born in china. central part of china. it's a province called inner mongolia. >> asked to bring up this fight. i think it is slide number one. it should be a map of china, and if you can see come up in the yellow and the top. >> yes. yes. >> light is the needle of the yellow part. north west of beijing. megan grew up there, and born into a catholic family? >> yesterday i was born into a very catholic family. even so, at that time, the church were all closed, and we do not have priests or leaders. so, but my family held onto face, and i was brought up as a true calf like. and it seems to me that you, and you got some training from, discover your location of the priest by the aid of the divine work society? >> yes. from my mom, it's very safe for catholics. she wanted a place for religious systems. and that was six siblings. she had to tell that. so, actually, when i was very young , my mother already asked me to pray for your location. my late mother. and she passed away two years ago. so, that's where i got my location. and

agreed to hand over hong kong to china, china has agreed the living style in hong kong is not going to be changed in 50 yearars, but we cannot seeee china is fulfilling its promise. i don't t think we c c change te situation now. maybe what we can do is j just taking photos anand keep those memoriries in our r d of how this... i don't know what to say, but... oh! oh! i am quite lucky that i can live with my parents. it is too expepensive to buy a a flat in e future. [cat mews] mmm. airin: hong kong is now the lleast affordable city in the world. i still live with my parents, and we always have conflicts. in a small flat, you see every day, there would be conflicts easily. i think they don't understand me since i was a kid. [fireworks exploding] in hong kong, even going to a cafe or just have a dinner is really expensive. you cannot do this every day, so roof is free. let's try that one. you can see the street. there is a familiar in hong kong--graduation, find a good job, get married, have kids, be grandparents, and die. if you don't learn anything or you don't contribute in society, i think such kind of life is meaningless to me. [woma

china? you spend a lot of time watching the formation of policy in china. who are the voices, who makes the policy and such a vital relationship such as us and china? relationship, it is ultimately the politburo and xi jinping who calls the shots. there is also some really interesting debate coming out of china, it is a pity it is not often covered by english language media. there is a perception outside of china that there is only one strand of thinking in china, but actually some of them have had some very thought provoking ideas on us—china relations. for example, a professor who famously criticised the president. the former academic from the central party? central part square, the core of the communist party ruling in the country. these are the voices that are brewing in the country, they do exist in china. going back to isobel's point, i think this is exactly where the problem lies. at the moment, us and china leaders are trying to undermine each other with all sorts of interesting tactics, but we do not know exactly what they want. in other words, it is about lack of leadership, it is also about a lack of vision. that brings us to our second l

minister's comments that are in a war between china and the us is no longer inconceivable given the very accelerated militarization of the south china sea by china i mean to be a success i just to potentially invade taiwan the suppression of freedom and autonomy and hong kong and in tax along the china border over 2000 miles long so we see a pattern of chinese lives around the world is distracted. by economic devastation but i don't believe there's any such thing as 3 months window where war is more likely or anything like that and i believe that there will be a much cooler heads prevail in both washington and beijing. any deliberate steps towards war but the danger is deepening what has been happening on the chinese belligerence in asia and beyond the potential for a miscalculation could lead to an escalation that no one wants to see occur just to be clear at the very beginning i heard you mention covert my team are you asserting as president that the chinese did covert 19 on purpose. no i'm not and i actually don't believe that's what the white house has been stating what we do see is either immense gross incompetence on the part of the chines

american knowledge is a fact that they don't actually know what china wants in order for you to have a hot war china has to want to go to war china doesn't want to go to war. for china if you want to with we're focusing on the issues of globalization or the cost that will come if we stop globalization is the key things that will happen is that you will have decline of influence in dominance of multilateral institutions that were led in established by the by the western powers and well you will then see is that the chinese similar to what people are talking about with regard to w.h.o. is you're saying well you either w.-h. will fall in line with us or you fall in line with china which one do you want right in china is willing to say listen we're willing to stay with us globalized globalization light in say let's work together and find some way china said it's willing to be open to investigation we just don't want to investigate investigation is led by the americans which i can see there's a certain legitimacy to this is a clear ideological part is an element to that i think the key point behind it is that when we're talking about

being a dissident, being a dissident in china for many yea rs, a dissident in china for many yea rs , we a dissident in chinamany years, wejust urged a dissident in china for many years, we just urged the world, pushing china towards democracy is our responsibility, not yours, but please don't take the wrong side. but now i'm selling through your programme, and thank you very much for giving me this platform, to tell the world that the chinese government is a threat to the whole world. it's a threat to the very civilisation we are living in. and let's make that comparison. diner and the world. and if the world cannot reunify against china like you wa nt to reunify against china like you want to say you have, what was the word? peace or appeasement, thatisit the word? peace or appeasement, that is it again. so it's time for the world to really think from my perspective, and i have been saying i told you so. please don't dismiss our boy simply because we are dissidents, and we may have a good point because we are dissidents —— our voice. good point because we are dissidents -- our voice. we have to end there.

from our point of view, we continue to invest in china, build our presence in china. we want to be the beverage of chinay. continue, andl the consumers in china continue the demand. it is a great category. it is a worry if you read the press, but for us we will react to facts and when we see things happening in the market. the talk about possible asset sales, give us an update about spinoffs, where are you on that? tim: what we announced in april, we are undertaking a separate strategy which allows us to do the deep dive and reconstruct our business. and how can we best grow the portfolio? from a consumer point of view and growth opportunity perspective, as we have done that work, there are alternatives we are evaluating. there are other iterations that we continue to do the work on. as we go through this pandemic period and start to recover, that is a priority focus for us. we are not rushing to make a decision. it is underpinned by a desire to make sure we have the construct of our businesses and the operating model to help grow all the portfolios into the future. that is the premise behind it. i thin

china, it's a pity it is not often covered by english language media. so, there's a perception outside of china that there is only one strand of thinking in china, but actuallyvery thought provoking ideas on us—china relations. who are these voices? for example, a professor who famously criticised the president. the former academic from the central party? central party square, the core of the communist party ruling in the country. these are the voices that are brewing in the country, they're not always evidenced, they do exist in china. going back to isobel's point, i think this is exactly where the problem lies. at the moment, us and china leaders are trying to undermine each other with all sorts of interesting tactics, but we do not know exactly what they want and how to live in the decades to come. in other words, it is about lack of leadership, it is also about a lack of vision. that brings us to our second large topic of the programme. what do you want in a leader? americans, tanzanians, new zealanders and others will ask themselves this question in elections over the coming weeks. but we've all been forced to ponder the question in the eight months sin

china. that's what reporting season is about. china, china, china. e growth is coming from, it is rebounding the most. shery: what does it mean for the unloved sectors? transportation, production, industrials. let's go to profit outlook, what have we seen so far, and what we expect from those who have yet to report -- what do we expect from those who have yet to report? >> we think it will shift from the earnings to the big banks dividends. the talk of dividends last reporting season came from banks. that's expected to come from the sector this year. to put it in context, dividends made up about 33% of ordinary dividends pay through last year. that's expected to drop to 18%. and if you look at the resources that made up last reporting season, about 26% of the dividends paid, that is now expected to rise to 30%. industrials,t packaging companies and the likes for amcor, expected to have results today. have been performing exceptionally well, boosted by stockpiling and growing into the market shelves. that was a logistics industry. it has been doing exc

china said so. china said they would reunify. taiwan is always part of china. as i said, it's free society too. then you may lose this partner as a free country, and just like you have lost hong kong, i hope it's not too late to salvage. let me end with this question for you. you've been a pro—democracy activist and a critic of beijing for a very long time. if you're honest with yourself today, look at the relative strength, resolve and strategic vision of the united states, the so—called leader of the free world. then look at china with its ambitions and strategic vision. which actually seems stronger right now. very same system in -- sentiment used to describe that in the 19 30s. being a dissident in china for many yea rs, dissident in china for many yea rs , we dissident in china for many yea rs, we deserve dissident in china for many years, we deserve the world —— just urged the world. pushing towards democracy is responsibility, please do not ta ke responsibility, please do not take the wrong spied. thank you very much for giving me this platform. it is a t

abuses current actions in hong kong and projection of the south china sea and elsewhere require that we more seriously confront china. china's actions with regard to their policies for china's leadership is made clear their intentions through policy pronouncements and neck cavities. they don't pose their approaches being win-win but -- the chinese come his party's policies contributed to the halting of reduction that dangerous reliance on sometimes risky supply chains and resilient super countless jobs and lost. in my prepared testimony i outlined many of the policies and practices that form the basis for our concerns. they are well-documented. we are dependent on china for medicines personal protective equipment but that dependence exists in many other sectors and could increase if the ccp achieves its stated goals. as a relates to policy failures in the west it must be addressed. our inaction on certain fronts and actions on others have contributed. after the recession of china the world trade organization u.s. businesses began to set up a recent with the stated goal of serving the chinese market. despite facing requiremen