i never forget about how you have to fear the rising commodities. i hate commodity increases.hey're a disaster for stocks because raw costs impact gross margins and declining gross margins almost always lead to the declining prices. then in 2008, we had a spike in commodities that was just incredible. alcoa traded all the way up to 45 on endless strength of aluminum pricing. and potash fell down to $80 in 2008, a straight line as agricultural commodities soared. peabody energies skyrocketed from $34 to $88 during that same period. as analysts declared a beginning of a coal super cycle. freeport copper and good not to be outdone u.s. steel zoomed up. the biggest iron ore producer shot up from $19 to $120. iron maker, not exactly the facebook of iron ore either. the run away commodity prices that propelled the moves were among the major reasons that the federal reserve tried to stop the price increases. the result? another crash. s&p 500, it was cut in half. pricing was obliterated. >> the house of pain. >> and none of these stocks ever even remotely recovered. alcoa is at $12.9

. >> well, there's commodity something called bear rights another commodity that is mined in states nearby and let's see there are things like bio fuels we've had folks interested in shipping possibly shipping bio mass and other products that are used for bio fuels elsewhere. >> is there public comment? seeing none, public comment is closed. >> oh, you have two. >> sorry (calling names) sorry. >> good afternoon, everyone i'm with the lormz union it's been a long time we've been talking about bulk commodities on the waterfront here our union is open to a lot of perspective you know term operators in those easier looking forward to working with those operators to make sure we have on efficient save operation we're interested in any type of bulk commodity if they're looking for additional you know materials to move in there as well you might want to look into logging i know that's big we have a couple of facilities that are going around the bay in richmond and oakland that might be one entity we could entertain the iou is behind this one hundred percent we hope the commission whether take int

the commodity business.at. i'm not looking at dupont giving to carlisle. this is a ppg but they've got a better price. you'll see what happened with ppg. >> olin is the bigger beneficiary with the deal. >> they are olin. they own 55.5% of olin that's why it's a good deal. people aren't attributing what they should hear. this is a big deal because they got rid of the worst part of the business, a huge amount of cash, they can do a giant buyback and also own olin too. it not factored in. when we talked with andrew we'll take more sense of. it doesn't necessarily happen overnight. but ppg, did double the stock by getting rid of the business. >> a double is a lot to talk. a double. >> i think that you can put a 550 number you've got to find some multiple. why can't you give a market multiple? >> 18. >> yes. >> 18 is a reasonable multiple? >> i think so. that's what i'm going to peg -- andrew won't tell you about the multiple. >> are multiples too high in general? 18, that's pretty heady. >> where interest rates

manus: let's talk about commodities. huge week for oil, the hugest rally sense february -- since 2011. commodity currencies, canadian dollar and australian dollar, is it a temporary reprieve? the oil, and how it plays into this. michael: geopolitical risk is coming in as a factor. our analysts do look for oil rising over the next year. short-term, the capacity for storage is declining. at some point that will feed to a low oil price. wills being supported by geopolitical risks. medium term, the outlook is buried. that means we are bearish on commodity currencies. the aussie dollar is the one we are most bearish on. it has had the best performance over the past week for the last couple of years. there is the commodity slowdown in australia. the need for australia to rebalance away from commodities. that will keep it average. -- dovish. manus: you also have aussie dollar -- mexican. michael: we like ozzy max. -- aussiem mex. are not correlated with the dollar view. caroline: how much is china -- industrial profits not look

it does not mean the commodity trading those away.oes into a shadow trading business somewhere which becomes less regulated, less visible to the public, less visible to people who know what is going on. does it affect the ability of the banking system? no i don't think so. these commodity trading houses were very effective. they knew what they were doing. some may have gone bad. carl: i would argue a contrary opinion. if the fed is responsible for mopping up in mass, they should have some ability to prevent having to go in. alix: fair point. mr. gregg: that's legitimate if the fed do that. the fed did not step in and mop up commodity trading failures -- carl: they do have a responsibility for the solvency of these banks. mr. gregg: that's absolutely true. i agree that there is a too big to fail issue that has not been resolved under dodd-frank. but the commodity trading partner exercise is not the problem. it is not the elephant in the room. you can't represent that pushing these banks out of commodity training -- trading is going to

>> i like actually those commodity names. if the dollar is going to weaken. i'm not talking a massive weakening, at least the ascension of the dollar is halted for the time being. we are probably in a corrective phase, you want to go to those commodities. i took off the copper short the other day. the other thing i have done. i know tim's talked about this before me, i actually bought emerging markets today. eem, because if those currencies are about to rebound, that will be good for them a. lot sold off. eem is the way i play it. >> the gist of that, maybe the stocks that are a dollar sensitive have overcorrected now that we are seeing some stability. therefore, if we see stability continue, these stocks are set for the biggest bounces. >> like brian said, emerging markets can definitely rally in these markets. look at 41 as a level on the eem as a breakout wlefl. if we break through that, that's a level that's been resistant more or less 32 the 40, 41. it broke back through 50 in september. it tells me the eem currencies are giving you room to run. i think

weight in commodities. many different blended indexes, this is the bloomberg commodity index. hthe headline is we have dipped below where we were at the lehman lows. brendan: it is good to run back as far as you can. when you get to the early 1990's this is looking closer to a reasonable measure and not just that most recent dip in be 2011. olivia: i'd be curious to see china. tom: there we go on commodities. something to watch this morning. midnight beckons in lausanne switzerland. peter cook is in washington. gulnar is in tehran. tell me the tone of hardliners in tehran/ gulnar: in general, the hardline voices compared to the past have been more muted. we had an editorial by the editor of one of the main hardline newspapers here. he spoke out strongly saying the iranian officials in lausanne should not make any concessions that would contravene the red line set up by iran's supreme leader. that is really the only voice where hearing here. i am large when you compare -- by and large when you compare last year, the sounds have been muted. an admittedly very important voice thi

falling commodity prices. this, i assume the trade surplus widened last month. >> let's bring up the surplus. dollars --n u.s. $60.6 billion. the factories a may be pushing exports to compensate for weak domestic demand. in the see weakness currency again. we have had two rate cuts in the last three months. that has helped exporters, but when we have weak domestic demand, that is going to put pressure on the currency. >> and put pressure likely on those nations that do big trade with china, as well. thanks so much. checking some other headlines will return toe world oil markets in the second half of this year, that according to the head of opec. he says demand was weaker than expected in 2014 and will rise by more than one million barrels a day this year. crude has halved in value since june. fora's copper imports fell the second month in february to their lowest in over three years. shipments were done more than 30% from january as manufacturers closed for the lunar new year holiday. china consumed more than

so i've never heard of cotton as a candidate for basic commodity. in the 20th century normally oil gets nominated. in the 19th century normally cold gets nominated. if you push the boat out a bit i would bet that if he took i had and still out of the input output matrix of britain and the 19th century you'd have a hell of a time keeping the economy afloat. so if i put my tongue in my cheek ear and i say cotton -- we would've gotten a capitalism in any case. what would -- >> i think it relates very much to the earlier debate that we had. there are other industries obviously that matter to the history of capitalism to a matter increasingly and the british economy, by the 1830s their increasing investment in railroads and iron industry, the steel industry, and mining and all that becomes very, very important. but still at the moment of industrial revolution i would still want to maintain that cotton is at the very center of this particular move. there were large production units in the parts, including large workshops in barley, but the factor as a kno

we are joined now by btb's commodities analyst jim steele.reat to have you on set of this morning. jim: thank you. olivia: at one point consumer retail demand from china and india -- jim: we have seen a rapid drop recently and the dollar led for most exclusively in the last couple of weeks. the kick in from physical demand is probably going to occur quite soon i would think. we have a four dollar to five dollar premium in shanghai compared to a local london which means it is tax sporting golden to china. we expect that demand, now that we are beyond the edges, it would begin to pick up as well. "the pulse what is-- olivia: what is the most important driver of gold right now you go people are looking to hedge against deflation. \jjim: it is negative for gold coupled with a stronger dollar. this is a powerful bearish cocktail. i think that is why we have dropped. tom: come on in here and look at gold. this is inflation-adjusted. we have got another boom and down we are. the gold bug in richard reid. you say it is a cocktail. what will be the ca

usually people say it land and slaves of the most important commodity. they are not there right but they are not the same as cotton sold -- the part of your talk that i really found very interesting and very convincing was the specificity of cotton and when you related it to the relationship between local elites that presuppose markets, long market developments and so on and europe, the ability to at organize at a distance which is what happens, the great essay on the crisis of the 17th century, a crisis going on for several centuries, that is resolved by the rise of america, the colonization of america. that i found convincing. that is not the same as using cotton as a symbol for capitalism throughout 5,000 years. >> good question very big one. the book encourages these questions but let me just say i don't think capitalism has a 5,000 year history. capitalism's history is somewhat shorter, let's say approximately 500 years and i totally agree with you. this is not the only thing there is in the history of capitalism. there are many other things and in

but did they grab the wrong commodity?uld pick up a truck of millions of dollars of something, what would you pick? you guys have already started. tweet me. wait until you hear what the panel has to say, it's next. ♪ ♪ charles: so himmers robbed an armored car. believe me, they'll catch them. i think it's an inside job. more importantly, what should they have stolen? tweet me. announcer: and now, it's time for "upon further review." charles: yesterday, on a rarely lowly stretch of i-95, north carolina hijackers robbed a truck. $4.8 million of gold. after mechanical difficulties, the guards said we were surprised by three armed robbers. the news recalls the great robbery of the 1960s. at the time it was deemed the crime of the century. the robbers were arrested just five days before the statute of limitations was going to kick in. scottie, "upon further review," how long before these guys will be caught? >> if they haven't already. this is obviously an inside job. no doubt about it. i give it five minutes. charles: one of t

agriculture has a lower impact than other commodities. largely down to the fact that the actual consumption is fairly inelastic. if prices change, we tend not to eat less. when prices were lower, you didn't have fewer coffees, you just paid more for it. that instability doesn't change much of the actual consumption. the other effect today is that generally, while the dollar has had a negative impact on prices the drop in freight prices and general commodity prices has far outweighed that. prices end up far lower for the consumer. jonathan: you can paint a pretty ugly picture of the global economy through that prism. what is your read across from that? >> it is becoming far cheaper to be shipping these commodities around the world. more importantly, the general drop in freight prices is making more regions more competitive. we are getting strange furloughs. we are seeing flows of brazilian oranges heading into the u.s. you are also seeing strange flows in the fact that it is cheaper to move from the u.s. to northern brazil than it is to mo

the commodity import numbers look robust.that the domestic economy is not surging forward, ck over.ontinues to ti our expectation is that china's government is going to have to do more to support growth in the months ahead. this was a marginally stronger support from exports that shaved down our expectations for the need for stimulus. >> domestic demand, lackluster but not nonexistent. tom joining us live from beijing. let's see what reaction there has been from social media. here is shery. talking about that exponential jump in export numbers. although exports numbers have increased dramatically from 48%, industrial metals are not in demand. one twitter member is asking if china is making good out of air. another person remarking that the figures could have been skewed because of the lunar new year holiday, saying that everyone double ordered to make up for the factory shut down. another person is also talking about the fact that the u.s. and china do not have a fair trade deal, saying that free trade has not been fair for t

what did they say about commodities?na was the growth driver for all commodities for the past 10 years. 15 years even. and now they are slowing this being the slowest growth since 1997. for example, the hardest hit raw materials are going to be the bulk commodities like whole, iron ore, steel. they have very significant exposure to china's manufacturing sector and housing. they are trying to build their internal economy rather than rely on exports. as demand shifts to companies in india you will have a consistent demand base that will not be so the reliance on one country and the growth they're. -- so reliant on one country and the growth there. energy aspects coming out and saying that they are expecting a pretty significant downside to the correction. first off, you have refinery maintenance picking up. refiners are shutting down and are going to be using less crude. china was also buying a lot of loyal to build up reserves, and they are taking a break from that. on the flip side, you see supply enough, especially on i

let's see if the commodities are doing anything. three companies which caught my eye, vivendi delivered the numbers on friday night. the revised the numbers -- they revised the numbers because of an additional charge in regards to mortgage related litigation. morgan stanley settled their mortgage-backed litigation last week. it prompted credit suisse to take this move. they have up their provisions -- upped their provisions for

. >> he has been trading commodities many years.he most successful long-term track records. manages about $3.2 billion. the fund called aston back capital. andy hall may be closely associated with fi bro the commodity firm german when it started at the turn of the 19th century, mark rich and others came out of the school. hall recently parted ways with them, but he's got a long and noted track record. blackstone one of his keystone investors. people look at what he says as sometimes a litmus test for where the market is going. >> how about this call? >> i agree. 100%. you know that we've been calling the bottom for a few weeks now. if you look at west texas intermediate or brent, it has been at $50 plus or minus call it $3.50 for several weeks and that is in the oil markets rare that you get something in that tight and flat of a range for this long. that is the classic making of a bottom. scott, you know that we've put bp, that's our way of betting on it. but we think oil goes to 65 from here. we can't pick bottoms. you're not picki

commodities like oil and gold rally as did commodity stocks like energy and metals. what happened? despite yellin's comments that the fed could raise at any time believe the fed is once again pushing the day of rate hikes farther down the road. >> looks like the markets read the dovishness and heard, no rate hikes this year. we heard what you said but no rate hikes. >> reporter: it's not good for banks by making money by short and long. bank of america and key corps ended down on the day. i'm bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >> randy crawford joining us. a former fed governor and now professor of economics at the university of chicago's booth school of business. welcome back randy. nice to have you here. >> great to be here. >> let's start first of all with something i found kind of in the statement and the q and a session. the fed feels as though the economies has kind of backtracked a little bit. no inflation and still worried about the labor market and those who want to work more but can't find those jobs. did that surprise you as well or not? >> it didn't surprise me

george is from wells fargo, he knows there are second-round effects to a collapsing commodity. can oil force a collapse in yields? oil and other signals filter into everyone's world, including the world of debt. george: credit markets have been focused on oil prices. as soon as oil started to crack last year in the middle of the year, bond prices started to come down. a pretty big concentration in both investment grade and high yield markets. more so than equities. people started to use credit markets as a proxy trade. tom: is the high yeield -- high-yield hydrocarbon market -- george: good point. energy markets within credits started to segment. the higher-quality better performing oil companies sought a bid, we saw clearing levels.

we'll get to general commodities in a moment. oil, where are we?ving a coffee, oil market, we have passed phase one and tell me what you mean by that is where pricing takes us. manus:: first down in price -- christian noyer: first down in -- michael drury: first down in price and where people store it? now we have field of the storage around the world. -- fille dup the storage around the world. manus: if you look at the fed and at some of the baker report in terms we are seeing dramatic cut in rigs. technology has moved so fast forward. help me with this conundrum. it must be some juncture. michael drury: about 1/3 of th e rigs. about 1000 rigs they are the most marginal. small impact on output. when rigs went up, it's a long time before it affected production. the next 500 rigs the ones you are watching. it has been vertical rigs so you are not a knocking out fracking is what people thought would go first. manus: when you knock it out? 30 bucks? michael drury: i would not be surprised at 30 something. we will find marginal cost, a variable cost pr

despite the global commodity sell-off lithium prices are holding up. >> essentially a commodity in contrastwe know it's the trends of oil. lithium the price has been stable and actually going up due to that huge demand that existed. >> and the demand mainly coming for batteries, is that right? >> definitely the industry of the battery, the industry of the energy is the one that is driving that exploit nowadays. >> and do you forecast there to be a big growth in battery-powered cars. is that one of the reasons you're positions yourself in the lithium market? >> definitely the demand on the battery for the cars has driven it. we in our case are looking at 0 long-term development. not only lithium is the only topic. today the more sexy topic to attract the investors and development but looking also at other -- so there is a vast industries that will be serviced out of that. >> right now as you mentioned a major use for electric cars. but it feels like we've been waiting for song so long for electric cars to become popular main stream. what will it take to have electric cars come main stream. i

>> we need to look at the soft commodity, corn, soybeans, wheat. they have been under pressure but they have really held down pretty well now. we take the overall strength of the dollar. that pushed them down, plus oversupply of last year. all of sudden they found a nice little base. if dollar gives up a little room, i think commodities themselves found a great level, a great space. that is space i'm look to get into myself, to get into soft commodities. any help on dollar we'll see a rise. big acreage report comes out next week that will give us planning going forward. they're supplied a lot. at the end of day they're at a level they can't go much lower. always same, commodities push too far one way or other. cattle market another problem. cattle is so highly priced you can't buy any. average guy can't go into the store to buy a steak. that is really a problem. >> chicken. david: the question is really whether the stock market itself has gone too far in one direction based on what happened. jamie, 11 months we haven't seen nasdaq go down as far as

hess, chevron, exxon. >> and old adage if the commodity market when everybody thinks the commodity pricesing to go lower might be the time for you to get into commodity companies. that makes me feel stronger about investing in oil companies than i would have if i hadn't heard that. >> yeah. it's great to catch up with you as always. thanks for your insights. >> thank you. >> professor damodaran, comment. >> couple things. first it's not a tech bubble cuban was talking about, he was talking about vc investing. always a game. you buy a lot, one out of ten succeeds succeeds in a big way, make money. in terms of energy i don't think everybody is negative on energy. i think he's misplacing that. somebody like the head of exxon comes out i'm going to pay attention. i disagree with that. >> reminder as well, mark cubanp will be on "the closing bell" today with kelly and company. 4:10 or so eastern time. do not want to miss that. provocative blog today getting conversation really all over the place. okay. we just mentioned the exxon mobil ceo rex tillerson telling cnbc that investors should brace

they are selling the commodity in droves. should you follow the herd or snap up some of the yellow metal? we'll debate that. david: a huge breakthrough in the medicine world affecting millions. a new class of drug, not only lowers cholesterol, the bad type but may reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes and avoid the symptoms of the statins. if you're worried about the statins, you want to hear about this. >> don't have to be a basketball player to score big during march madness. our madness will dive into their march madness money-making stocks, straight ahead. stay tuned. ♪ the real question that needs to be asked is "what is it that we can do that is impactful?" what the cloud enables is computing to empower cancer researchers. it used to take two weeks to sequence and analyze a genome; with the microsoft cloud we can analyze 100 per day. whatever i can do to help compute a cure for cancer, that's what i'd like to do. to breathe with copd?ow hard it can be it can feel like this. copd includes chronic bronchitis and em

commodity weakness that isn't going to respond the same way.ow, 9 out of 10 traders i talk to all want to buy oil. they all think it's time that it's going to chop around but stabilize into the second half. and so my sense that the fear trade, the one that is going to catch most people off-guard is a move to $35 in crude. >> so well put, jeff. we hear the same thing. almost all of our guests always like buying energy. how much is that kept exxon price as high as it is now? why do you think it could keep going higher from here? >> let's not say exxon's price is high. it's plumbing 52-week lows. i don't think it's been rally. i'm not going to debate whether or not crude could go lower. i think it could. the important thing to remember is the equity markets are forward looking indicators. it's not like even if oil does bounce off the bottom and i don't know if it's at or near a bottom. it could continue to stumble around for the next couple months, that's not to say people won't start to nibble at exxon. i'm a believer in long term investor. it's

the commodity complex does concern me because the rest of the commodity should have been rallying. it was also down and a lot of people are waiting on the fed. >> some of the negative data points that the fed won't be that quick to huge. dollar obviously cooperate ad little bit for the bulls. i still say as long as the iwm stays above i'm with pete on health care. i understand where there is froth but the evaluations in these names is still reasonable. health care one, some bank names, goldman sachs, that stock goes higher. >> the dollar is down 1% today and s&p was up 1.5%. when you think about that relationship seems odd to me. seems like a lame excuse. to your call on crude might bottom, a lot of head fix there. people get excited about equities right now because of the weak dollar well we've seen sort of head figures in oil since it's been plunging in the last six months. i wouldn't take one day and say go all in. i would say one thing. i agree with pete. i know pete loves when i agree with him. on the biotech stuff when you think about it it's clearly frothy whether valuation.

dollar strength is not good for commodities in general? >> the u.s. dollar strength has been and continues to be a factor. it certainly hasn't helped oil prices but i do think it's more a factor in the margin. at the end of the day it's the weak physical markets and also what's happening in other currency markets. what's happening in emerging markets markets. these have completely collapsed and are indicating that emerging markets are looking weak at the moment. that's painting a bearish picture for oil. the fact that you have on the one hand this currency war out there. recurrent countries competitively devaling their currencies. that's not a positive thing for oil of course. >> that results in a stronger dollar which pushes oil prices down further. how do markets find a flow in oil price ifs the dollar continues to strengthen? >> you need to go lower and you need to go to the levels where you start to see proper shut ins in growth. that's the only way you can rebalance. other sources take way too long to respond and takes awhile for demand to restar

how is that affecting commodity prices? alan: that's another big thing to talk about. u.s.rers looking at the planting season for themselves and in south america we're seeing harvest which is pushing down commodity prices. there was concern about rainfall in argentina and brazil this year. a little more rainfall seems to be helping their harvest driving down prices of soybeans. but you saw the u.s. department of agriculture cut their forecast for south african production because of a drought going on over there. they are a big supplier to the middle east. it pushed corn prices up a bit. mark: bloomberg's alan bjerga. joining us from washington, alan, thank you so much. the streets smarts alex steel has been following the investment appeal. is that eroding? >> yes. across the board this is all about the fed. gold and the dollar tend to movin' versely. if you have a rising environment that many tends to produce gold. i do want to point out part of this could also include investors. on the flip side demand for gold coins is actually holding up relatively well. the u.s. mint so

mark: goldman sachs says commodity prices will plunge even more.ng a 20% drop over six months. alix steel joins me now with more. it was a joke. i called her alex smith last night. alix: this is significant in that it has to give her a much with supply. not only in the oil market but also in the copper market. that is what goldman is talking about. commodity investors will see a return of 4.5%. part of that issue is speculators. they see a huge amount of etf inflow coming into products. mark: you can look at the drop for that one year chart. alix: as you see speculators come into the market you get that flood come out. and the oil in etf alone inf lows of $5 billion. mark: we half a -- have a report from the iea. what does that tell us? >> where reaching storage capacity. it is fascinating that we see storage space be shrunk and inventories rise and production rising as well. it is a strange, crazy world we are living in. that orange line is where storage is right now. all the other lines are at the five year low, the five year high, and the five-y

we do not spend tens of millions of dollars in a collapsing commodity environment. angie: the full interview with andrew forrest coming up later at 11:20 a.m. hong kong time. you do not want to miss it. we have breaking news for you right now. this is according to the news agency korea aerospace is the number one bidder for the fighter project. they said they would pick a preferred bidd by april. er korea airspace is of the one, and acquisition program. it is worth 8.3 trillion one and shares right now are climbing, surging more than 2.8%. nearly 3% on at that news. something else to look forward to. star chef jamie oliver said he wants world leaders to take things seriously. ahead of china central bank we would take a look at the numbers that show china's real growth rate could be as low as 4%. you are watching "asian edge.” ♪ angie: forensic teams have identified dna from some of the 150 people killed in the germanwings plane crash. the copilot, 27 year old andreas lubitz was suffering from a psychosomatic illness. a doctor's note that would've excuse of her flyin

. >> we are talking about commodities and regulation.dent and chairman of the cme will be talking to us. talking not only about what the fed should be doing in terms of regulating wall street, but about the commodities business. getting out of their physical trading commodities business and storage business and transportation business. we will talk about what that means for the industry going forward. mark: any surprises in the report today? >> in terms of the storage for the u.s.? you had crude production that rose only 3000 barrels a day, the smallest increase since january. perhaps the cutting in rates is helping. -- in riggs is helping. mark: scarlet fu has been looking at the kraft-heintz deal. "bottom line" continues in just a moment. ♪ mark: welcome back. taking a look at bloomberg brackets. the men's basketball tournament -- we've brought together a group of titans from the world of business and finance to take their best shot at the bracket. each of the participants generating -- generously donating $10,000, the pot going to the

us didn't of commodities, -- a student of commodities, as we have to be -- it's cyclical. >> at the endthe world these things come and go. it is entirely normal in terms of what is happening. if we were standing here five years ago most of them would have obtained five-year iron ore producers. that's what about the asia infrastructure invest in bank. it seems to be divided between the united states on one side and the rest of the world on the other. >> i never speak of the australian government because i am not it anymore. here is the bottom line. from the beginning with the proposal was put forward i supported it. asia has a massive infrastructure development need. we have a shortage of global capital willing to invest in it. a real challenge is to use globalpublic capital -- public capital. it's good for global growth. global growth is fairly flat at the moment. shery ahn: coming up next, more warnings on lowing china, but the central bank governor says he has the tools to handle it. we will be live in beijing with more. the markets in hong kong and shanghai getting underway varies in

limits on how much of a commodity can hold.n fix -- if they don't fix it, congress may come in and provide guidance. olivia:brendan: why is the rulemaking taking so long? bart: because they left the sole ambiguity -- in order to get support, they cannot be too specific. there was this whole area of financial industry that congress had no clue about, let alone some of the regulators. the ftc area. it is a problem but hopefully they will keep moving forward. tom: we have five regulatory groups. bart: i have always been opposed to that because i thought what would happen is the cftc would be best given the amount of volume traded in commodities -- tom: bart chilton with us. a lot to talk about, including the controversy over high-frequency trading. olivia: the conversation continues. more than a million brazilians took to the streets to make their disapproval of the president clear. we will discuss the president's role as the country's economy improves. we will be joined by the chief economist -- this is "bloomberg surveillance."

what do you think the fed's role should be in overseeing the commodities business? of the mindset that businesses should be allowed to own what they think is in their interest. as long as there's an oversight industry like the fed -- agency like the fed watching it, i don't see a problem with banks owning commodity assets. they got back into it around 2002 or 2003 and i think they are good for the overall market. they held them accelerate and move smoothly but i see no reason for them to be out of the business. alix: what happens when goldman sachs sells its metal warehouse to a te firm? metro and goldman sachs are part of the london mercantile exchange. when you see that business peeled away from banks, what does that wind up doing for a business like yours? >> we just listed and aluminum contract and that's exciting but the problem is the loadout time and how much time it took to get the aluminum out of the yard. that was a big issue and once you get that smoothed over, who owns the men who controls them want be an issue for the end-users of those products. alix:

i'm long commodities which is mostly oil. but let me take the other side. a lot of people running around with hair on fire saying the crude reserves web the crude storage is all going to be filled up. then all of a sudden they're going to plummet down to $20. how does that fit into your more bullish view on this? >> i was one of the arguers making that point. and we are, in fact, going to top off wti crude oil in cushing, oklahoma. we're going to top that off. we're going to top off the amount of crude oil in the gulf. and there is the possibility that you get to that point where continued production of crude even though rig counts are falling off the edge of a cliff are going to continue. in the past five or six days and i was one of those people making that argument we get a panicked liquidation, it doesn't seem like we will. i've been bearish since over $100. i thought we'd get down below $25. now i don't think we're going to do it. now it looks like $40 to $45 seems to be the base. >> 15 seconds. does this mean you're a buyer of crude? >> not yet. it's

currencies, commodities surprising action. the euro churns. pain year yield -- nymex crude is ahead. 42.17 is game changing. gold south. there is the spread. $11 between brent in europe. important. we had a guest saying american gasoline per galley -- american gasoline per gallon, watch brands. a massive shout out. here is the unemployment rate. janet yellen was talking about. fed december of last year december just past. this is the glide path to a better unemployment rate. the reality is, we have done better. brendan: this is pointing out we are doing -- the problem is, they want to overshoot the best way to hit a target is to overshoot it. there is a lot of pressure to not overshoot and just tap. olivia: any indication on how concerned janet yellen is about causing instability with a rate increase. we heard those concerns from christine lagarde. towe are at the so-called -- rate. the rate of non-accelerating rate of unemployment. that is where we are. there are more dovish members. tom: let's go to washington. the fed meats in the backdrop.

th that floats into commodities. the question for stock market bulls, are we going to japanese level on rates and if we are, does that then mean, hey, you want to be in stocks? >> i think the first thing i would say is that june seems pretty unlikely now. i think they've told us, okay, the dollar is a head wind and they're going to go later. so that's a helpful thing already. the question is, are we going to start to put down to around september as well? that is something we don't know for sure. i think it's something very data-dependent. i don't think we go to japanese yields quite yet but lower than we thought in the statement today. >> let me ask you. do you think because they seem to be focused on the dollar, is there some level that is problematic for them? say, all right, we can't have it go past where? >> well, i would say i think we can almost view it as a circuit breaker, right? we've taken down the interest rate projection so much today. if we had another rally, i'm not projecting that, but the next three m

commodities. nymex giving back some of its 17% gain. down 1.8%. i think why are they absolutely obsessed with crushing the situation in yemen? a part of it is to do with their own population and where the population is dominated. brent down 1.5%. gold just below $123 1,200 a barrel level. energy is really going to be a focus. never in the past eight years has it been so divergent. socgen at one end and bank of america at the on the other hand. oil around the $69 level. those are the commodities spectrums. rio tinto seeing -- there are reports there will be job cuts. nova trading up. their insulin drug it looks as if that is a step closer to regulation approval. up 12.84%. the irish are defying me. we have the full year report and we're seeing statements there quite warm towards the i.a.g. that is state of play. japan's inflation was in your top news. there you go. the best performing currency in 2015. it is taking a little bit of reprieve this morning. that is the best performing currency of 2015. the yen, what happened? inflation, will it get to

the commodity crops take a lot of energy and space.i learnt when talking with the formers engaged in the process. they think there'll be a hybrid approach, but we are never going to see the absence of the large, large beautiful fields of corn. >> besides indoors and the winters of chicago, farms are popping up in surprising places, like airports. >> we think of airports as a lot of human activity. planes are not the only things flying around airports. that's [ ♪ music ♪ ] >>> welcome back to techknow. i'm phil torres, joined by dave, and dr crystal dilworth. i'm an entomologist, and i like working with insects. one of my favourites are the bee, that may be in trouble. >> i think of airports as being places that are destructive to wildlife. it's not always the case. >> no, in fact, i thought to take a tour at sea pack airport in seattle where they are taking steps not to just keep wildlife striking aircraft, making us safer in the air, but are taking steps to make bees a little safer. let's check it out. [ ♪ music ♪ ] >> reporter: as on

doing to commodity prices. and dollar yen right now. really analysts saying the pace of the rise in the dollar is the second biggest in 40 years, right now the dollar is holding steady ahead of that fed announcement, the price of wti crude oil has slipped to a six-year low. look at that. strong dollar has led to a fall in gold price as well to the lowest level since november of last year. now, across asia, we also need to check how those falling oil prices will affect resource rich asian markets and their stock indexes as well. as they bear the brunt of lower oil prices. i'll have more in a few hours. that's all for me back to you. >> we'll talk to you in a few hours time. three more european countries say they are on board with a new development bank proposed by china. officials in france germany and italy have given a joint statement saying they intend to become founding members of the investment bank. 28 countries have already announced their intention to participate. they include southeast asian nations, in

mark: su keenan with the commodities report. thank you. right now the u.s.presentatives voting on funding for the department of homeland security. this has been another issue of partisan rancor on the health. just last week on friday, what had happened was that the house decided to give, along with the senate, a one-week extension. president obama did sign off on that, but as many lawmakers had had before, what this meant was that they would be back at square one this week and that is where they are. we will continue to monitor the story and bring you the latest developments as soon as we get them. in recent months, retailers seem to be playing the big game of musical chairs with management. many have said goodbye to their old ceo and hello to a new chief , and others are still on the lookout for one. does flesh -- fresh blood mean a turnaround? joining me, market correspondent julie hyman. first, why is there so much musical chairs? julie: a lot of these retailers have been struggling in the past several years. first, you had a struggling economy and that w

the commodity crops take a lot of energy and space.i learnt when talking with the formers engaged in the process. they think there'll be a hybrid approach, but we are never going to see the absence of the large, large beautiful fields of corn. >> besides indoors and the winters of chicago, farms are popping up in surprising places, like airports. >> we think of airports as a lot of human activity. planes are not the only things flying around airports. that's >> sunday. you know his music but what about the man? >> i was given a gift. >> up close and personal. behind the scenes of the biggest hits... >> she was a troubled girl. >> brightest stars... >> kids don't want to "own", they just want to "play". >> and the future of music. >> the record business is in trouble. >> every sunday night, >> i lived that character. >> go one on one with america's movers and shakers. >> we will be able to see change. >> gripping. inspiring. entertaining. talk to al jazeera. sunday, 6:30 eastern. only on al jazeera america. [ ♪ music ♪ ] >>> welcome bac

my bias would be to stay short commodities. that said, the clues i'm getting here, people are far too cavalier not realizing there will be disruption with regard to monetary policy and inflation expectations. with that said i do believe we can have a sharp turn-around a downturn in this market not because i'm bearish by any sense of the imagination. seems like people are just too cavalier and too, just seems like prerogative of the markets they continue to climb. i'm just wanting to be counterintuitive on that. the 18 times multiples. we can take the negative shock we once did. david: rachel, let's get back to tech if we can because last night i was going back through some old clippings from the year 2000, 15 years ago, last time we hit 5000. march 10th, we hit 5048. next several months we were nothing but down by end. year, nasdaq was 2300. it lost more than 50%. i understand. we're a totally internet market. people capitalized on internet like they couldn't back 15 years ago. all sorts of companies are making money amazon is

todd: spot and cash commodity are the same thing.n a future expires it goes to what they call cash or spot. when you get a quote, if you go to your gold dealer and wants to buy physical gold they will give you a price based on spot gold. which is the cash in which we have to buy it for. not the future, futures usually trade at a premium to spot. when you are getting physical gold, you get the spot price plus the commission record charges. when every commodity or future settles, it settles to the spotter cash price. scarlet: todd horwitz from the cme. i'll be back with more morning market movers in a couple minutes. betty: thanks. a look at other top stories. apple enters the fashion business. tim cook unveiling the smart watch at an event in san francisco at 1:00 p.m. eastern. they will have a rectangle or touch screens. prices reportedly starting at $349. some analysts say apple could sell 14 million units in the next year. far shy of what they sell and i cents. europe's central bank taking steps towards boosting price growth. the e

that's why -- created a rise in commodities recently.s a little bit of good news copper come off of its lows. gold has come off of its lows in the last week. to add, we have geopolitical risk of what's going on in saudi arabia. that's hard to quantify except you see it in oil moving. those geopolitical risks seem to be affecting europe more. germany, france spain, all down more than 1%. lufthansa, i should note down 4% trades over in germany, not here. the airlines here in the u.s. are also generally on the weak side p side. american airlines, united also on downside. teches are weak on the sandisk announcement. sandisk gets most of its revenues outside the united states. they get a third in china. so i'm surprised, reading the report, they didn't say anything about currency weak's. all they talked about was lower sales and lower prices. now that might be a side effect of the currency weakness but they didn't specifically cite currency weakness. micron's weak amsl. taiwan semiconductor already preannounced, that's down a bit. intel also

it's time now for the commodities report. is here with the details. >> another day, another big volume swing -- a big lose for oil, coffee and/or shoes. oil is back above 50 for the second day. we got the latest numbers on oil surprised -- oil supplies and it's another decade high. we are starting to see it bill because refineries are slowing down and that is what played out in today's trade. according to one industry veteran we are just weeks away from the height of inventory season. data going back to 1920's shows supplies and not been this high since 1931. so where do you put it? a lot of people out there starting to call, saying we've seen the worst of the price drop but this report says did in these people get it wrong last time? >> myself included saw this market raking $70, no one saw this. i find it really interesting no one who saw the crash -- now everyone is telling us the bottom is in. >> he thinks you've got a building supply short-term and that will outstrip demand. but let's get to the orange juice story. what

he has got to figure out what to do with fixed incomes, commodities, and currencies.u look at the stock price of credit suisse over the last year, down 18%, underperforming its peers. then there is the crucial question of it trading against its tangible book value at 1.1%. ubs is 1.4%. the questions on the direction. also some relationship questions how close is he to washington? what is he going to do to have profits increase at credit suisse? >> what might be brady dougan's legacy at credit suisse? >> you are only asking me this because manus is not around. he is a man who is so clearly inside brady dougan's head. he spent a remarkable career there in many ways. he was ultimately undone by litigation. he did have challenges with litigation towards the end. take a look at some of the fact from his bio. 1990, he joins. 2007, he becomes the first american to be the ceo of credit suisse. they plead guilty and have a $2.6 billion fine to helping americans evade tax credits. in 2015, they had to revise fourth-quarter profits. fourth-quarter profits for 2015 on litigation