mario draghi expected to ease.i sachs says that will deliver a dovish surprise at the meeting that will drive the euro down by as much as 3%. that will give you $1.03. that is a level we haven't seen since 2002. stay tuned. we have the ecb coverage wall-to-wall throughout the y. the rate decision at 12:45. mario draghi's news conference at 1:30. fed chair janet yellen suggests the pace of future rate on actualcould depend progress on inflation gains toward the central bank's target. that is a shift from the requirement the fomc set for an initial move. oil has rebounded from its lowest price in more than six years amid speculation saudi arabia will propose a cut when opec members meet in vienn tomorrow. let's get more from vienna. ryan chilcote is standing by. obviously, news reports this morning that the saudi's might gather with the rest of opec and non-opec and may possibly look for a slash in terms of output. what credence is there in this, mr. chilcote? ryan: i was just talking to the iranian oil minister. ira

tom: draghi helping us.s one of big things, the big segment of the divergence is the translation for currency. i still like some of the companies in the u.s. market, -- clearly, the valuations evaluation in u.s. market is quite fair while the european market is quite weak. exporters in the u.s., if they are exporting to the right place, might be interesting. however, in the u.s. financials, i be in a better spot if you think rates are actually going up because, clearly, that is a better environment to them. it is not about regional allocation possibly bottom-up, finding opportunities where you and whereentation specific him at his can do better. tom: i want to tease to speak into later in the hour on use of cash. does it continue? >> i think so. i think so. i think the next 12 months are going to see the same, even if rates go up by .25. tom: it won't change anything? caroline: m&a. tom: virginie maisonneuve with us and we have a set of other guests this hour to make you smarter about economics, finance, and

draghi asen mario always in his skinny black tie approaching the podium. all eyes on mario draghi. specifically details behind the rate cut. if we are going to beginning qe. the extent of how big it is. this is somewhat of a scene setter as we wait for a potential rate cut later this month from janet yellen. mario draghi taking his seat at the podium. it has been quite a morning already. there's a very cool w rip function which we always show for fed futures. if you change it to eurozone, you can see a cool chart for european benchmark rates. it's not so much the benchmark rate we are focused on for the ecb but the deposit rate. take a look at this chart. you can see the chances of the deposit rate being between 4/10 of a percent negative and 1/10 of a percent negative. the more important thing is what mario draghi says right now. stephanie:. he is. -- economicregular analysis, we have conducted a total assessment of the strength and persistence of the factors currently slowing the return of inflation two levels below but close to 2% in the medium term. and re-examined the degree o

draghi can't do everything.eds the help of the politicians, but the politicians are all over the place. jonathan: a final thought from you. the political risk story. it happening greece. -- it happening greece. does it have more of a bite for you? dollar-yen these are big countries saying no to europe. unfortunately your project needs physical cohesion, and were not seeing it. we could begin to see fractures developed quickly and that could impact whenever they occur in the markets. jonathan: big thanks for joining us, stewart richardson. opec, output targets will be confirmed next june. crude at $39 a barrel. ♪ >> 30 minutes into the trading day. let's talk about the markets. bounce,etting a draghi oil stocks suffering. i urge you to take a look at the last five days. we are veryr, but much down over the last five days. the crowded trade suffering a little bit. jonathan: this rally is not convincing. we'll go through the other asset classes. euro, weaker. there is the kicker. wti south of $40 a barrel. the opec

do you expect a unanimous support of draghi tomorrow? run us through what would be over delivery in your opinion? holger: if draghi were able to say that there was hardly any vote against this decision to ease, it would be a surprise. the discussion seems to be more contentious than before. the case for further easing is not clear-cut. what would be a surprise is if the volume of monthly asset purchases were to be raised beyond 80 billion, not just 80, but more. if the deposit rate was to be cut by more than 80 basis points, that would be a surprise. a real big surprise would be if they include rate corporate bonds. i don't think they will, but that would be a surprise. david laughed it off when we started talking about negative rates. are you nervous? this is something the ecb said they wouldn't do. holger: i'm not nervous. last time i was in switzerland, the mountains were still standing. they are having negative rates and that doesn't seem to hurt the country significantly. the negative rate we talking about is the penalty for banks w

some investors were surprised by mario draghi's measures.t was not just market watchers -- janet yellen had this to say about ecb. janet yellen: my understanding is the market expected actions that were not forthcoming. anna: she is smiling -- i'm not sure. we will talk about the fed. what was the problem with yesterday,steven? should mario draghi have let harder? harder? he delivered easing from the ecb perspective. second point, more important is what it was price that -- priced at. one way to look at this is yields on short-term european bonds. they had fallen to very low levels. -45 basis points. that signaled there was an enormous amount and huge expectations. from that, i think the market had gotten ahead of itself. anna: should he have loaned against that? steven: it is hard to say. it is hard to signal that. manus: jamie, and terms of the fact of what he did, qe was expended -- extended, from an economics point of view, what did you make of it? jamie: i do not think there is more sinless now than before the meeting. people expected p

this draghi the grinch that stole christmas?nt crude is trading about $44 a barrel ahead of the opec decision. let's get you up to speed on some of the top stories here at bloomberg. the euro has slipped back against the dollar after its biggest one-day jump cents 2009. investors now shifted their attention to the u.s. payroll ahead of the critical reserve meeting. brent crude has a weekly loss as people gather in vienna. saudi arabia at informal discussions yesterday. russia did not want to join any opec cuts. demand for investment and consumer goods jumped. the top story of the last 24 hours. draghi disappoints and the euro surged after the ecb measures failed to impress investors. the focus now shifts to the u.s. payroll. what the want to know employment number may mean for the federal reserve. here is what janet yellen and ecb president mario draghi have said. septemberarison with 2015, macroeconomic projections, the outlook for inflation has been revised down slightly. >> gains in the market, coupled with my judgment that i

mario draghi did help stoke expectations. think it is clear that the euro area, well things are slowly getting better -- while things are slowly getting better, i still think that the clear picture is it was probably a good idea to do something. it was just the way it was managed. joe: do you think that this is not some huge mistake and that this is a brief period of extreme positioning and a slight mismatch of communication? an important is question. often, the economic data goes in a certain direction and the central bank comes along. much, the central bank has to come back to the economic data. the fear is that the economic data has been better than what the ecb -- joe: you can see all the policy rates on the screen. the policy rate was cut by 10 basis points. people thought they would do a little further. do these negative rates, are they helping? torsten: there is a huge debate about that, including in the academic community. it actually does help. the central banks look at this from a toolbox perspective. what are the o

draghi's news conference at 1:30. on --t, push land takes deutsch land takes on draghi.ife in berlin next. ♪ guy: that's london. lovely morning. we are waiting for the ecb to deliver its verdict in at the moment it looks like they will open a little bit softer. jon: let's get over to nejra cehic. nejra: jpmorgan, bank of america and citigroup are among a group to have cut rates by one level from standard & poor's. the nigerian communications regulator has reduced a fine imposed on the telecoms company from $5.2 billion to $3.4 billion. they were penalized in october for failing to disconnect millions of unregistered mobile phone customers. deutsche bank says it sees sterling weakening by 15% by the end of next year which would see the pound slide into a level not seen since 1985. the other britain's mining strike came to an end. for more on these stories and others check the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg.com. but see what's happening in asia. there's alec standby in hong kong. >> we have seen a bit of a mixed picture once again. asian equities on the whole are lower t

we have yellen, draghi, yellen and then draghi again tomorrow. much is the euro dollar exchange rate interfering with growth, policy mistakes, now that expectations weren't met with the ecb and how carefully do you think janet yellen is watching it? >> and add to that the fact that we have apparel tomorrow morning as well. there is a lot going on that is going to be moving the markets. i think yellen is carefully listening to what draghi has to say and looking at the exchange rate movements. is it the case the ecb is setting policy that's appropriate for the economy? in that respect, i think, the jury is still out. the ec bcht is stib. >> thank you, michelle myer and samantha azzarello. >>> they are gathering in new york to discuss the role in technology and health care cost. meg turelle is live with a special guest. >> good morning, carl. thank you so much to ken frazier, the ceo of merck for joining us. you met with president obama recently to discuss this topic. you talked about it on your last quarterly earnings call. could you tell us about

you never know with draghi. he likes to surprise people every once in awhile and he's pretty aggressive. i wouldn't be surprised if he went 15 basis points rather than 10. >> what would be a disappointment? >> what would be a disappointment? doing nothing i guess would probably be a disappointment to the marketplace. the market would react to doing nothing. i think doing more is probably not going to be disappointing. >> when we see the moves euro dollar has had, over the last five weeks we have gone above 110 to below 106. is that more because of the euro side and ecb side or in fact the fed side which we got a reminder of when yellen spoke yesterday? >> it's a combination of both really. the market does not work in a vacuum and there's a lot of different aspects that are going on and if you look at what's going on in the world right now there's a lot of issues just besides the economics that are playing on the economy. we have what's going on in syria and the u.k. voting to start the air strikes in syria and y

a lot of disappointment in what mario draghi said. betty: he has been consistent in over delivering on his promises. meeting, they have telegraphed there will be a lot done. what does it say about dissent within the governing council? michael: that is an interesting question. there are too many countries in the eurozone to vote. they are taking turns. they rotate the voters. in this meeting, the euros -- the germans were voters. the germans have been less enthusiastic about additional stimulus. that may have hurt druggie. he did say it was not a unanimous decision. they may be do not go as far as they might have. cutting the deposit rate should have some effect. he did not get as much as he wanted. it goes further into negative territory. now ons no clarity right whether the ecb could cut that again. in the future, are we going further into negative territory? does it have any kind of effect? michael: we are working on theory, not reality. this is equivalent to the interest on excess reserves. they leave their excess reserves at the f

draghi tries to jumpstart your up with a rate cut.hat is more messed up, brazil's economy or its political system? is still obama says it too easy to buy guns in wake of the california massacre. we will look at gun-control policy. first we will head to the markets desk. julie hyman has the latest. ie: we're looking at stocks that have been declining today. it seems to have more to do today with mario draghi than janet yellen. now hitting just about the lows of the session for the three major averages here, all of them down by more than 1%. it would be tough to pin that on mario draghi since he spoke early this morning new york time. it's a broad-based selloff we are seeing today, we have energy stocks, health care stocks, financials, all trading lower and accelerating the decline. on.day has gone interesting situation here, without a sharp catalyst necessarily as we head into the afternoon. earlier affecting european stocks much more sharply than u.s. stocks, coming out with a quantitative easing program which he did not extend the si

mario draghi has been trying to get prices to rise.n chase also plans to maintain its bonus levels. that will give the two banks an advantage in recruiting rivals give compensation. francine: this is something that tom keene is extremely concerned about, and this is the difference between investment .anks in europe davide, to tom's point, there is a concern that by cutting bonuses we lose key talent to u.s. firms. firms over the last 10 years have been generating a return on equity that is -- in europe, those terms only have the compensation of the american firm. to take a large bank over the last 15 years, 90% of the returns went to management and employees. nothing went to shareholders. it eventually shareholders said that is it. the pressure from , you want to pay your american peers, that is ok, make the same amount of money. europe cannot have a similar number, just a different size of economy. tom: do you see combinations occurring to allow for an attempt at renewed profitability? davide: i think there is, but less player. think

mario draghi expected to announce additional stimulus. that decision comes tomorrow. alix: and how things are looking in a private equity sector. we're going to talk to a fund manager at kkr about being a woman in finance. , we are of course following the breaking news out of san bernardino, california. let's go to mark crumpton for the latest. mark: the associated press is reporting that the president and ceo of the southern california center said the police focus is on a building that houses at least 25 employees as well as a library and conference center. the inland regional center is where the shooting took place. initial reports say as many as 20 people were wounded. television in los angeles reporting there are fatalities. a triage area has been set up as authorities searched for one, perhaps as many as three gunmen in this shooting. again, the second mass shooting the united states in less than a week. shooting in colorado springs, colorado at the planned parenthood left three people dead and nine others wounded. the white house is confirming 'sat president oba

betty: what did you think about the move by mario draghi?> i know mark is disappointed but i can see a couple positives from this. one is it really does say there is a potential for big policy divergence. it hints at coordination. the second is we think the surprise when the fed starts to move is the dollar weakens. that reverses a huge headwind. it starts to take a lot of pressure of corporate and probably boosts u.s. growth. betty: how is that going to happen, though? rising addressed rates see the dollar weakening? >> the policy rates are moving up. you have to remember that policy isn't directly intervention. the markets have correlated that and historically, development of inflation and supply of money is how currencies move and i think the fed is busily moving because inflationary pressures are starting to develop next year. that should start to weaken the dollar. i've the 11 times the fed started to move, two thirds, the dollar weakens. history sort of supports the idea. betty: however, even janet yellen recognizes the dollar is likel

draghi does tend to get his way.be he was a little bit muted yesterday compared to his ideal situation but do you think there's a sense that he is put out because he done control the situation in a way he once did? >> no, i don't think that's the right characterization. the influence has been much reduced ever since we created the european central bank so, you know, when first labor and after him it was clear they woen have the type of influence they had many years before and he is somebody that modestly but consistently said in this forum it's possible to voice opposition publicly and i do it when i believe we should go in a different direction. comparing to greece and the government there's a different situation. kwour talki you're talking about the largest economy in the euro zone and they're guarenteeing a large part of that risk so of course they have a stronger voice. so these are two very different situations and the german government will continue to be powerful on those questions simply because the size is c

the mario draghi bounce, it's on. to the mariont draghi in new york.n the futures market. dax futuresr move, up. let's go to the sx classes. uro creeping lower after that huge move on thursday. we --yen, where are dollar-yen, where are we. now i'm a dead. oil production will keep pumping. >> i would disagree with that narrative. opec is saying, play by these rules. you can pump whatever you want. credibility point. production target of 30 million barrels, exceeded. if you came out with a target on friday, what credibility with that have? >> that wouldn't have any credibility. exactly to my point. the saudi strategy is to get these guys out of the market. that's what they are doing. >> we will see. i agree credibility is something we need to think about. >> we have your morning first word news. >> president obama described last week's shootings as an act of terrorism. the address the threat of terror at home and abroad. he: covers to pass tougher gun laws. called on congress to pass tougher gun laws. no evidence the killers were directed by a terrorist

draghi continues.s --mario draghi's policy statement yesterday was interesting because he gave the market most of what they wanted. he is still in "whatever it takes" mode. he did give them quantitative easing for six more months and included additional assets. it seemed like a stimulative forward statement. the since the had amount was not increased -- sense the amount was not increased. perhaps the e.c.b. is the last bastion of easy monetary policy and add its limits. tom: this is an important question. bill gross, how many billions to julie's yesterday? bill gross: oh, no. made money yesterday. had lots of calls, sold lots of germann five and 10 year bunds. made a lot of money. making a lot of money today on the streets. i think the u.s. is in a better position in terms of their yields relative to germany and the e.u. if $60h to be fair, billion a month has been extended by six months with 18 months to go, that is one trillion euros to go and puts their balance sheet close to 4 trillion relative to

so negative on the way mario draghi handled it. he's managing a group of countries which are incongruence. they are in a different place to where the u.s. is in terms of their economic cycle. i think he has to keep some powder dry in case the measures he takes don't work. there's a lot of expectation that was put on the ecb, and also, the long dollar trade was extremely crowded. when people focus on the way the euro-dollar moved, it was due an online anyway. there was a concentrated bullish dollar sentiment in the market. manus: my question, and presumably a question that many of our audience will be asking this morning, the bond markets, nearly $270 billion was wiped off, mostly at the short end to be fair. is this the tawdry speculative ,rowd that's been washed out and i count myself in that historically, or is this a real capitulation? >> i don't think it is a capitulation at all. the bond market has had a few emotional moments over the years. this is just another one. i think it will normalize. i don't notice really any real co

also not just mario draghi janet yellen and ben bernanke.thorities have done nothing over the past two years. they've taken away from growth with austerity programs. mario draghi says he needs help if we are going to get additional growth. yesterday his predecessor at the ecb says he think that my starting to be happen -- that might start to happen. scarlet: as mike was explaining, mario draghi saying that the ecb does make policy for the euro zone. do you think that the fed makes policy for the market? the fed makesthat policy for the market, but i think that the ecb makes policy for the eurozone. it was just yesterday that mario that heas saying thought qe was a tremendous 66 as because it drove interest rates down. -- success because it drove interest rates down. yesterday he was making policy for the markets, but i guess today you are not. the fed does the same thing for the same reason. they measure their success i whether or not the markets behave in the way they want them to behave. qe is always about a market manipulation degrees in

so a lot is being looked for from mario draghi. pay attention to the forecast coming out, and it's just now -- they cut the deposit rate tto to .33, and less than what the market looked for, the averages out there, but they did go from minus.22 so we are looking for three things today, only one of which is expected to come out as a rate decision, and they delivered on that, perhaps a touch less than the market expected with a ten basis point decline in the deposit rate. we'll look for whether or not they increase the amount of purchases and whether or not they extend the minimum purchase time and type of collateral in the press conference. andrew? >> thank you, steve. for more, let's bring in our managing director at ek asset manager, cnbc contributor, of course, and you go directly to the iphone. what did you look at? >> the euro, rallying, which i thought it might. he didn't throw everything but the kitchen sink into the decision, but it was a very m moderate rate cut. understand the german bunds are trading negative, and he's no

what will santa draghi pull out of his sack. >> santa draghi now? >> he's such a wonderful man. father christmas. there's a lot of similarities between the two of them. >> not the looks. not the reindeer. >> do you think he would dress up as father christmas? >> you have way too much of a man crush. >> i do. he's like a monetary policy jedi. he can move markets without doing anything. >> he can move markets but he can't bring inflation up or growth up. >> don't spoil my man crush. >> all right. well, the producers are telling us to move on. we got political turmoil when it comes to one of the world's largest emerging economies. brazil and brazils lower house speaker has given the green light to impeachment proceedings against rousseff. she denied committing any illegal act. gaining as much as 4% on the back of this news and also trading higher. for more on the story, nancy joins us around the desk. why the move when it comes to these brazilian etf on the impeachment proceedings starting against the country's president. >> you think it adds to the uncertainty and the turmoil we h

ramin: we don't think it is going to be driven by what draghi does.f you look at ppp models, it should be more than 20. the credit story, we see european credit growing and accelerating. in the u.s., we see the credit market coming to the end of its credit cycle. that second position and growth and improvement, that will be the primary driver. to head out tot frank for. -- head out to frankfurt. the first question is we get this data point for the eurozone . is it going to play into any of the thinking? paul: not really. the reason is the ecb is looking at medium-term inflation. the concern here is even if you do get a cup inflation, it will be because the drop in energy prices of late last year. inflation is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.1%. as draghi said, core inflation is a good indicator of where headline inflation ends up. core is too low, we suggest more stimulus will be needed. not everyone agrees. that is what seems to be priced into the market. jonathan: paul, i am interested in the debate of the ecb and if there is anyone there who thin

one piece of this is currency after mario draghi yesterday. the strength in the euro, the weakness in the dollar. the other piece of this today is the jobs report. gold traders still waiting to see if we're going to get that december rate hike. that's part of it but they think we could potentially move a little higher before that december date when the fed will make its decision. so $1,092 is the level they're watching to the upside. we're not quite there yet but we're getting pretty close. "power lunch" will be back in two. you pay your car insurance premium like clockwork. month after month. year after year. then one night, you hydroplane into a ditch. yeah... surprise... your insurance company tells you to pay up again. why pay for insurance if you have to pay even more for using it? if you have liberty mutual deductible fund™, you could pay no deductible at all. sign up to immediately lower your deductible by $100. and keep lowering it $100 annually, until it's gone. then continue to earn that $100 every year. there's no limit to how much

mario draghi has pushed aside protests from the bundesbank. he will do whatever it takes to defeat deflation. markets finally recalibrate. shifts from of debt negative to positive yield. it is jobs day in america. lines up her ducks before the december 16 fed meeting. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from cop21 in paris. four.friday, december 4 tom keene. francine lacqua, wonderful to be here with you. saidine: michael liebreich we will probably have a cop26. copenhagen was such a disappointment. let's hope that this is a step up from copenhagen. tom: here we are in paris. jobs day in america. to new york city, first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: the coalition fighting islamic state is getting a new member. germany's parliament approved a plan to send planes and 1200 troops into syria. will conduct reconnaissance, and soldiers will be used only in support bowls. it is -- in support roles. officials in a juice say a fire bombing that killed 16 people today was not terrorism. police are looking for two young

saw the draghi drop that we , time to get in.een taken the opportunity to add in stocks across the region. guy: when you take a look at what is going on in oil, one of the biggest drags his service companies and oil majors. do i need to rethink my trades come monday morning? i'm looking for these big oil stocks and thinking how do they maintain those dividends? simon: we're seeing across the oil sector, dividend cover is very low. whether that is sustainable depends on whether the oil price can recover. it needs to recover by the end of next year. i maintain a pretty cautious approach. we may get some bounce next year when some of the supply cuts come through. the important thing is to focus on long-term demand. that is coming under more and more pressure because of some of the other technologies. we got the paris climate talks going on. the demand outlook is at risk. guy: when i think about next year, a lot of people do worry about it, where is my income going to come from? simon: we'll see some dividend cuts. in those exquisite

from the bloomberg team, good luck. ♪ manus: draghi decision.s are high ahead of the ecb announcement. how far will they go to boost inflation? the russian president is set to get his annual speech any moment now. areey, syria, and terror expected to be on his agenda. saudi speculation. opecountry may suggest an production cut in 2016. we're live from vienna ahead of the cartel's meeting.

neither us nor draghi himself.no idea how quickly monetary policy is going to translate into a rise in inflation. he can throw more stimulus at the problem because that does lead to a stronger recovery, which will eventually feed into higher inflation. he is going to want to do everything -- if we look at his two past decisions, when he hinted at a major action, the famous whatever it takes speech. it strongly hinted at qe. he surprised the markets on the upside. his style has been to hint at something and then come out with a slightly larger program. i might disagree with the other guests in terms of the potential for disappointment. that would not be in line with announcements. >> the market is pricing in a lot. here is what we are going to do. it is a sliding scale. p: certainly. guy: we will come back and talk more in a moment. david powell. and david page. they are going to stay with us. we have been kicking it around. euro area inflation figures out. ecb decisionkey tomorrow. we are going to hear from fed off

draghi's comments. normally this would be a help to the commodity market, copper is up, gold is up, however, oil is up, but the commodity stocks are not moving in response to this. so take a look. exxon mobil would normally be up with a nice rally in oil, down 1.3%. here is chevron, should be up on a day like today, down 1.5%. the equity markets seem to be saying this rise in oil that we're seeing as a result of the dollar weakness is a head fake and not going to last. there is a big opec meeting going on. the second is pond yields moving up aggressively, this is putting pressure on all sorts of interest rate sensitive stocks, utilities were weaker earlier in the day and a lot of home builders are weak, look at lennar down 2.3%, here is beezer home down almost 2% on fairly decent volume overall. the third factor is the one bill brought up a few moments ago, the shooting in san bernardino, difficult to quantify what effect this is having on the stock market. i want to show you oil. when this press confer

european central bank president mario draghi will speak at the economic club of new york.t is what to watch for on friday. >>> and after more than two years the securities and exchange commission case against the billionaire hedge fund founder steven cohen is set now to move forward once again. cohen will face the regulators' allegations that he failed to supervise two former fund managers over insider trading. a legal stay had stalled those proceedings. a judge has now lifted that stay and scheduled a prehearing conference for later this month. >>> standard & poor's cut the credit ratings of eight major global banks. the downgrade decision comes after the federal reserve adopted a new rule that would limit future emergency lending to failing companies. the downgrade affects the holding companies of bank of america, bank of new york mellon, citigroup, jpmorgan chase, morgan stanley, state street, goldman sachs, and wells fargo. >>> "fortune" magazine has just published its investor guide for 2016. it includes a list of stocks that it says offer a measure of stability in th

midday, mario draghi was speaking in new york and set the ecb is open to further stimulus after a day in which he underwhelmed the market. joe: he clearly didn't deliver enough. today, he did not make wild promises, but said they are still committed to fighting inflation. the market seem to like that. the big event was the jobs report. time,s were wildly at the but rallied quickly after that data. over 200,000 jobs created. to see volume fall off a little bit on big up days but volume was stronger than anticipated or typical. s&p 500, 40% above the 10 day average. in to see that kind of big volume. joe: it is a clichÉ. another important jobs report, but this was critical. up, somethe fed coming concerns about the data, so everyone was paying attention. i think this number i'm looking at might help explain why we had this huge rally. average hourly earnings change year over year, it ticked down a little bit. last month we got a nice spike. to 2.3%. down it's elevated, but did not take off. jobsakeaway was solid report, not much uncertainty about december, but not so strong we will have

one mariostion is the draghi himself try to tackle. expectations.onger are markets wanting him to meet expectations. they want him to exceed expectations. do enough to stabilize and move forward in terms of the stimulus but left the door open to further stimulus. that is exciting heading to europe. mark: divergence. some are saying the ecb cut was a hawkish cut, and the fed hike to be next wednesday will be a dovish hike. does that mean we are not diverging as much as we might perceive to be? whole point is there will be a diversions at all, in absolute terms. while we are talking about further stimulus potentially coming from the ecb and leaving the door open, the fed is looking to raise rates. futures putting that at 80% likelihood. as soon as you start seeing that, that is when he gets and as an investor, you have to get cautious in terms of foreign exchange risk where the company or investigate -- investing in -- if you are an investor and you send product overseas, and you have a strong dollar, it will hit sales. this more thanes me, which is d

>> out of mario draghi. i mean, the humor and the honesty because, look, if the market reaction yesterday was pretty brutal to the european central bank, but today i wonder if this is precisely the reverse and just how much investors will continue to believe that he will do as he made it sound, whatever it takes. >> in our exchange yesterday, kelly, we talked about just this potentially happening, that he would like to redirect and get back and he did put some numbers on this saying all of this amounted what they announced yesterday the 680 billion euros of liquidity through 2019. you will see they didn't get back what they lost yesterday in the dollar. they got back some of it, but remember, we started out before the ecb decision at about 106 if you guys with have a two-day chart. there's the dow, but if you look at the euro, 106 going above 109 all you got back to was around 18.50, 108.70. you did get the rebound in stocks and there could have been a lot of factors there, especially jobs also at play. >> t

mario draghi may watch further measures.y move markets this morning, it already has, although the markets wanted more. that's why the stock market, as well as the currency markets have traded down from their highs of the earlier session. >> to be clear, maria. 16 years ago when i was tasked with the worst job on earth, watching the ecb presser, it's like watching paint dry. he's going to start mumbling and i don't see anything yet. what you zoo-- what you see is a huge reaction, there's a breaking point where the cow bell and interest rate cut and suspension of gravity, people don't trust the next incremental move from draghi or yellen or someone from china. we're in an open space of uncertainty, not only from a space of liberty, but economically that the people have nothing left they can do. maria: the euro went up initially and you're expecting the euro to ultimately go down. >> ultimate i will -- ultimately he has to do this, and he has told everybody, maria, he's going to buy spanish municipal bonds. he needs to say that

we will go to mario draghi at the ecb.omberg radio from new york and washington and san francisco in the bay area and worldwide on bloomberg radio plus. good morning. ♪ tom: good morning everyone, "bloomberg surveillance," we say good morning to you. draghiwaiting for mario and a big announcement on thursday. here with the first word news is vonnie quinn. vonnie: vladimir putin painted a picture of his meeting with barack obama at the white house didn't see it to same way. they say they have an understanding of what needs to be done in syria. the white house said that barack obama stressed that president assad cannot stay in power. the russians are still attacking legitimate opposition forces. in london, the house of commons will vote tomorrow on expanding tradition attacks on the islamic state. david cameron called for the it has led to a split in the labor opposition party. partysenior labour members are in a very. the talks in paris are highlighting a major split in europe. western europe is accelerating its response --

got disappointed by what it perceived it got from mario draghi. the dow has moved to its lower portions of the day. it is down by more than 90 points now. we are going to continue to follow all of these stories and so many more, including reports that yahoo may be getting ready to sell its core internet business. is that the right move? we're going to talk to the former yahoo interim ceo, ross levinsohn, exclusively on the future of that company, and we are still awaiting that briefing from out in san bernardino, california, following yesterday's mass shooting there. we are going to take you there live. >> whether it's going to pin its core asset, whether they are going to change ceos. have you had any conversations with any members of the board about becoming the ceo of yahoo? >> no. not one. >> if you were approached, would you want the job? >> it's a hypothetical, and i'll push back because i was in the chair when scott thompson was under attack. it's completely unfair to marissa, who is a sitting ceo and trying her hardest to figure out a lot

is there more to come from mario draghi? absolutely think draghi could end up doing more here. he has worked hard to do more. i think one of the things we should point out is that there are a lot more elements at play in this cycle than in the past. they're looking very close it currencies. we at me tremendous moves and currency. how much the fed it does or how much mario draghi does in large part is tied to the currency moves. we think mario draghi keeps a relative on the euro to the dollar and other currencies, and that may end up altering the dose of medicine in the united states and in europe. manus: let's just see with the next couple of hours print for the market and of course all the investors that you look after. have a great christmas season. julia slavin's your, up next to bring you more special coverage ahead of the crucial rate decision. it could be the end the unprecedented era of easy monetary policy. we will manus: break down what it means. manus:of course, we bring you the analysis of the fed. ♪ manus: finall

hurt there maye mario draghi.en push back as part of a compromise to do with a dead, cutting the deposit rate should have some effect. and extending stimulus should have some affect. he didn't get as much as he would want. >> they cut it by 10 basis points. it was already negative. a goes further into negative territory. there is no clarity right now, whether the ecb could cut that once again in the future. will the have an effect? >> we are working on a theory, not reality. the fed pays banks to leave money at the fed. the same thing happens in europe. they are charging banks with the ecb. they figure that will make the banks take money away from the ecb, take the money away and push it out into the economy and lend it. they will not see gains in lending. we'll have more pressure and squeeze profit margins. they will have to do something. but so far, there hasn't been enough of an effect. where you are seeing the bond market, traders keep bedding that they may move lower. >> right. >> and they push down rates. th

mario draghi is they whatever it takes guy. he is not going to take the foot off the gas title too much if he sees reactions like this in the market. and heo get stronger will adjust the stimulus area that is a believable scenario to me. >> where do the markets go from here? from now till the end of the year, it is all clear? >> i do not know about that. it is fascinating that the market is gravitating back to this on change level. the average level is within a couple of points of the 2014 close. the fourth quarter is usually very bullish. we really had hard time getting past that 2100 level in the s&p 500. alas, we had a record was back in may. -- and the last time we had a record was back in may. a rally.ms to be the row number could be psychological. where the rally is going to die. tends to be the santa claus rally. that is something pretty reliable. it would be surprising to me if we get too far. betty: what do we look for in the next several days? >> we tried to get a sense of how the economy is heading. this will be an i

draghi. be 1994, the last time the bank diverged -- cutting rates. many, on a divergent path many a month? ,ome say the fed could cut rate hiking rates, before the ecb raises rates again. i think we are penciling in next onends that the happens in 2019 -- mark: well before the ecb cuts rates? kit: by the nature of this cycle, if you think that the u.s. economy will start at the point where there is no spare labor, the rate of growth picks up, so inflation tries to pick up and rates go up, and that is how you create an economic cycle. the clocks do, start at that point. i think mark is making some great points and we have been so focused on the divergence. i do wonder though -- do you think we may be overplaying this divergence in the years to calm? kit: divergence of some things. important in that it moves the dial. one of the important things about this divergence, compared tonight's many for when the fed was raising rates very aggressively before the economy is notin 1995 -- the fed going to put rates up quickly. it will be the most dovish rate rai

betty: some people think mario draghi has done enough to revive the european economy. euro is now weak enough for the economy to grow. thisof it has to do with divergence we have seen between what the ecb is doing and what the fed has done. caroline: of course. divergence between central-bank policy and the combination of ecb quantitive easing and higher fed rates was just going to help the euro hold on to those declines. vasileios gkionakis is here. where does the euro go from here? >> i think we will start seeing some mild depreciating pressures on the euro. i think they will be mild because the market will remain aware of drug's potential effects -- draghi's potential effect. modelingof fundamental , it's difficult to see the euro 110.en -- below caroline: it needs to keep the euro lower. thiskeep thinking about because it is a bit exaggerated. we are coming a long way off. 18 months ago the european -- the euro was 140. makey honestly, will it such a big difference if the euro is not at 113 and it is at 108? i find it a bit ridiculous frankly to believe that the ce

mario draghi also announcing a 10 basis point cut in the deposit great. the economists we surveyed had forecast a rise in the amount of quantitative easing. the oil market rising for a second day as opec prepares to meet in vienna. crude futures adding just under $.20 a barrel. west texas intermediate trading at $41.25. opec appears on track to maintain status quo after members clashed over policy. they held an unusual informal gathering ahead of the official meeting later today. its lineabia holding is calling on other big producers outside opec, for example russia, to join any cuts if opec takes the decision to do so. -- prices are new sixers low 86 year low in the brent markets. -- a six-year low in the brent market. uber said to seek to point $1 billion funding. -- $2.1 billion in funding. group plans to begin introducing joint products in the first quarter of next year, according to a combined statement. is seeking to raise more than $2 billion in the second fund raising round, valuing the company at $63 billion, more than general motors. paperwork d

mario draghi has another argument to do more.other hand, the hawks argue that now that the fed has moved the euro will probably weaken little bit more or not go up and therefore the ecb does not need to do much more. it's balanced and depends on the next round forecast from the ecb staff in march and june. in march, we get that she 18 forecast which should be in line with they want to be but by june, they will have to revise down again on the pressure will rise to do more and we eventually think they would help the we think they will cut the deposit rate further and maybe extend the asset purchases again. >> that brings us back to reality with more stimulus from the ecb. what does that mean for government yields in europe? can it go much lower? >> it probably can but the real music plays in the periphery. compression is still possible but we have plenty of political risks out there. we have a new portuguese government and we don't know what they will do and spain has uncertainty. in the short-term that will keep spreads relativel

--t week, draghi last dovish dovish.s that where we are next year, the ecb will be more reluctant to ease. how much we going to see from the ecb next year? simon: i do not think we see anything. people talk about a post fed world. ,e are in a post draghi world because he has had his wings clipped by the tighter monetary policy members of the european central bank. big hit ofee a inflation, another $10 off the price of oil. i think the ecb has fired its last shot. guy: how important is china in this decision-making process? china is coming out and saying we will do more monetary policy. 'll change taxes. is that a pivotal factor in which those two central banks, ecb, might end up swinging. china stabilizes, that is another reason for bundesbank to say we do not need any more changes. china has a lot of room to cut its benchmark rate. don't. the others there is policy room for the chinese to come to the support of its economy. if it can support its economy, and germany does ok, then the bundesbank has another reason agains

draghi's policy statement yesterday was quite interesting.e gave the market most of what they wanted. he did give them quantitative easing for six more months. he included additional assets. it seemed like a very stimulative sort of forward statement. the market i think had a sense that since the amount wasn't increased, the ecb is the last bastion of quantitative easing and monetary policy. >> this is an incredibly important question. bill gross, how many billions of dollars did you lose yesterday? [laughter] >> lots of calls, from five and ten-year german bonds. to be fair, $60 billion a month has been extended by six months and 18 months to go. that is a trillion euros to go. that puts their balance sheet close to 4 trillion euros. a much larger economy. there is a lot of firepower left. it pays to be careful with a -- when a central bank employs a martingale strategy, double up to catch up. ♪ betty: you're watching "bloomberg best." i'm betty liu. among headlines, several stood out, including the yahoo! board may sell the core internet bu

draghi not going quite so far, you get appreciation of the euro. that makes it easier for yellen to hike in december. >> let's talk about the most recent news out of the california investigation, that being nbc news reporting that one of the shooters at least had been, quote, radicalized, at least based on some connections that he had in the islamic community in california. do you think that as this investigation turns, tilts more towards the idea of domestic terror, there could be a broader economic impact lasting? >> i think there's certainly one in the markets and it has the potential knock on effect to the economy. yellen was asked about that today. she said there's a potential terrorist premium out there, she hasn't seen it yet. let's talk about the character of what we're saying. talk perfectly callously, there's a number numbness we have in this country to domestic mass shootings that we've seen before. if this seems to have an international content, it changes the story, and when we abst heard the press conference t the amount of ammunition