here is what i say about e.m. it is priced in. i would argue when the fed starts to tighten, e.m. will rally. >> i don't know turkish lira got whacked. >>> we'll move on. the last time the guest was on the show the s&p was at 1860, near the market low late summer. at that time we asked him on a scale of 1-10, how bullish are ow on u.s. stocks. here is what he said. >> i'm going to give it ten out of ten. what you have to think about is seasonals are really strong. when you have a down q3, q4 is up 90% of the time. >> well that was a good bet. the s&p 500 up 11% since then. want to welcome tom lee back with us. let's kick it off with u.s. stocks. we're changing the scale today. we're going one through five. how bullish are you one through five given the double-digit run yuf since the last time you were on? >> hi, sara. yeah. we're still very bullish on stocks. so i'm going to give equities a five. >> five out of five? >> five out of five. sorry five out of five. not five out of ten. >> listen to that. >> now you have to justify your case given the fact that we've got a strong jobs

and i think e.m. also gets sold if they do raise rates. >> so that's your trade. you're a seller. >> i think you could look out to december expiration. the fed meeting will be december 16th. today whether e.m. was 30, 35, you could buy the 35/32 put. selling it at 20 cents. you break even. your max gain is down at 32 bucks. that's down 9%. let me tell you what 32 bucks looks like on a chart. that is a level that it bounced from september. one other thing, i'll let carter get to the chart. 36 bucks where it just got rejected to is a massive long term. it was massive long-term support and it broke there in august. i think this is a good level to fade that move back to 36. >> i think this is probably the way you want to play it although i would say that i think there is a little bit more risk to the upside in here than you might suspect. we talked about reasons why it might be weak if the rates rise. one thing about dollar strength is it encourages imports. and if china isn't as bad, it could also support that sector. definitely the way you want to play it on the sho

we have been negative on e.m.ntinues, despite everyone being bearish, to disappoint low expectations. is it going to matter? is it all priced in? i think it is going to matter. i don't think they are completely hedged. the weakest link, we always said, is the fx. t class has to go further. anna: great to see you. guy: you in -- european equities look soft. john paris is going to be opening up for us. john: we don't know where we stand. the euro dollar looking at a seven-month low. all options on the table. the profit rate cut, increasing. two-tiered deposit rate? that is something we will discuss later. the big story for this market, i pulled up the bloomberg terminal. the back of a couple of stories to the dominant one, whether china opens a program into shortselling career that is going to be a big story if that develops. something we are going to discuss. and it: it is moving markets already can listing in china moving higher during the trading session. jonathan ferro will have his eye on that. that could be pa

i think e.m. is going down. when it was 35.30, you could buy the put spread for 70 cents. >> well, emerging markets have made a comeback this week, dan. so what do you do? >> i was targeting the fed meeting. it is still on december 16th and the expiration is december 18th it. did sell off 5%. at one point it was almost a double. as you are trading events and options that do decay over time, you look to take money off the table and keep the position in tack. i paid 70 cents for it and it is worth 60. at some point i have to manage risk if the stock goes higher, may have to readjust the strikes. and just like mike said in his energy trade, move it out a little bit, kind of go out to january or february. >> you had a quick down draft and the snapback. but directionally. >> it is gooding well. >> it is good with crude. >> and it anti-correlated with rates. and we still have important catalyst coming up. >> up next, your tweets and and the final call from the options desk. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow,

. >> but this is a beta trade fuxt look at the lows for the e.m., it is same for the s&p. it is up 12.5% and it is up 18%. and it is highly coordinated with the commodities stocks an it is petering out here. >> and last time we saw the emerging markets got hammered. there were fears of an interest rate hike from the fed and there were fears from china and that has calmed down a bit. >> yeah, it has. and when you see, it is apple and starbucks and nike. three brands destroying it all over the world and here in the u.s. and what else is going on in the u.s. we are a weak u.s. consumer. look at the retail sales that we've seen. look at how a lot of the u.s. domicile retail -- >> the auto sales were very strong. >> but the auto sales and apple are pulling away from everyone else. >> housing is coming back. consumer is the best performing sector this year. >> it is a tight aspirational group of consumer blarands. look at macy's and nordstroms. >> and the srt is dragging. a few big names of consumer discretion. >> but we are getting away from the real point. i brought up the bra

where poised in the e.m. i would be costly bearish thinking this could go wrong.: matters of global importance. .t is kit juckes up next, power in portugal. poised to unseat the government. will austerity in europe lose its valuable ally? ♪ manus: i am manus cranny in london. this is "on the move." these are your top stories. bb says these top oil prices in the $60 range for about the next three years. the company's regional president for the middle east says that is because demand is increasing. justirm that runs in biggest airline -- that runs india's biggest airline, indigo. and globe rate -- into globe the first ipo for an indian airline since 2006. as korea's it comes janjuah surged. offering thatlic raised euros. that as the dust government begins to unveil its -- the bank would be valued at 18.8 billion euros. standard chartered has cut jobs in the by, including for managing director roles. bank hasement, the reduced management layers at a global level. fewer senior staff. spain heads to the polls next month. one person hoping to become the country's next p

been a lot of positioning about domestic focused growth in europe versus the equities with exposure to e.muro isi think the suffering from the same thing, very slow growth. given that you had weakness in china, that didn't help you. i'm far more positive on china data. manufacturing, but other stocks as well. consumer stocks, you pick based growth, you see gdp weakness in the stocks, stocks have been oversold. manus: stay with me. we are going to talk about the fan. we got the triptych speaking today. we've got a lot more to get through. manish singh, head of investments at cross bridge capital. up next, watching pmi out of the u.k. last piece ofe data before the bank of england's super thursday. we are to bring you those figures. it's a little bit gray outside. ♪ mark: expecting services data from the u.k. now. looks like services growth accelerated in october after slumping to the worst performance in 2.5 years the previous month. to 54.9 activity rose from 53.3. that doesn't regain all the ground lost in september. it does the the forecast of economists for a reading of 54.5. the market

china, e.m., look at the impact china in europe. all of this put together means that if we have a rate rise in the u.s. in december, will it be a little bit too late for europe to actually engineer a meaningful recovery if world conditions continue to slow down and the u.s. -- hurrah,f america rises, we are all off to the races. and then all ships rise. it's the currency where we are getting the major response. richard, i want to bring you in because you look at the statistics. and that is what we do very well a bloomberg. we deal with facts and stats. take me through the post-draghi, we have seen the euro -dollar moving, but the market interpretation. richard: before draghi spoke this morning there was a high expenditures -- expended see that we were -- expectancy that we would get a cut. it's looking like that is fully price. actually we, market participants are working on the next 10 basis point which are 80% price by september of next year. so there was an expectation from market participants that we would get not only an expans

brazil continues to spiral down the rookie do we have a situation in which e.m.'inue to rally? guest: i think we would need a catalyzer. what we have seen in the month of october, which was a strong whole, the.m. as a negativity around asset classes. undoing that triggered the recent rally that we had seen. going forward, the economic environment will be determined by the future of the performance of the asset classes. when you go through the landscape and look for a good investment opportunity, what are your top two or three criteria? guest: in this slow growth environment around the world, we have been focusing a lot around countries that have the capacity to generate its own economic growth momentum around the structural reform agenda through domestic sources of aggregate. countries like india are very attractive. countries like mexico also look attractive. in these low-growth environments, in which inflation is not coming back anytime soon, we want to look at countries that, on the interest rate side, you may actually get a nice carry trade. countries like ind

e.m. is still suffering with commodities so week. , the jury isl still out on that. maybe the equity market has gotten more comfortable with rate rises. jonathan: the s&p 500, aggressive rally off that august low. we failed to set a new high. what does that tell you about where we are? crossed,we haven't which is normally a bearish sign. if you follow those over many decades, your equity position will increase. you would have done very well. we've had a debt cross. look at the overall pattern of the s&p over the long-term, particularly in the last six months, you can make a good argument, we are in a big pattern. jonathan: great to have you with us. up next, crude. big move in the commodity market yesterday. below $40 a barrel. should producers brace for more pain? ♪ jonathan: good morning. good morning to the city. here are bloomberg's top stories. the bank of japan kept its monetary policy unchanged despite the economy slipping back into recession. the bank says its easing measures are having the intended effect. first trade its surplus in seven months. parisian pr

we have sought the e.m.nceback impressively across the board where it is foreign exchange, local debt. i don't think that was too early because we overshot significantly in august and september. to make a long-term call right now, that is premature. stay with us. much more ahead on the next half hour of bloomberg markets. we will continue our conversation with mohammed because he wrote an op-ed today on bloomberg about what he thinks of the recent square ipo. they went public yesterday. in theond biggest bank netherlands returns to the market after receiving a bailout during the financial crisis. we will hear from the company's chairman. plus, mary cavalli gives his and his outlook on the fed. ♪ betty: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg markets. i want to head to the market desk or julie hyman has a check on the company movers including health insurers after the united health story. julie: the health care insurers fell sharply yesterday. united health says it was considering pulling back on its parti

we also think financial market tensions may crop up in 2016, particularly on the e.m. side.will be relatively supportive, but if you look at the trend, it is still suggesting that there will be limited appreciation of the euro in 2016. tom: one more question -- we look at asia dxy, the asia blended currency group, is that a good proxy for emerging markets? stephen: it is a good proxy for what's going on in china. we think that region will under per or mother parts of the as., for example mexico, china finds a new economic equilibrium. tom: stephen gallo, take you so much. -- thank you so much. this happened yesterday -- it was stunning. francine, i need your interpretation. this is economic, but we have three people who nobody would ever think would be fed at present. -- fed present. we're going on here is bank-of-england-ing the fed. i've never seen this. francine: is that a bad thing or a good thing? tom: i don't know. we have a chair in washington, and in 1917 -- the presidents are usually economists. a candidate for the rich and fed. or they are business guys, proper oxf

interest rates, does that have an effect on other financial markets it serves of -- in terms of more e.m. credit. crowded trades in the fixed incomes are you suddenly see rejections occurring. that will also stop the u.s. raising interest rates probably any further. -- have ae it situation where they are cautious, they say they are not going to raise rates quickly. obviously, if markets misbehaved, and certainly that will stop the raising rates for a long period of time. guy: we're going to come back. i want to talk a little bit more. in the bull market, it is getting quite stretched. we will have that conversation in a moment. pfizer and allergan could announce a merger agreement today. it could be the biggest pharmaceutical tap in history. nejra: of course, we were talking about this deal last week, the potential for it happening as early as today. one sticking point was the u.s. treasury tightening the rules around taxing where u.s. companies by -- u.s. companies buy foreign companies abroad for tax purposes. pfizer and allergan are looking to propose a record merger worth more than $

our fund managers getting smarter, not just throwing in the e.m. a big basket now? not most investors still think about emerging markets as a monolith. i expect much of the exposure is .hrough an emerging market fund which makes sense, if easy. at least it can be cheap. the reason i was compelled to write the column is there seems to be a unique opportunity, giving extreme valuations, to more accurately express your investing preferences. stephanie: is that a currency play? or are you talking corporate's in each region? so muchm not focusing on currency. i am looking at the fundamental of the companies. just to clarify, you are talking about court -- about corporate debt in the emerging market? nir: no, stock valuations. >> you talk about extreme valuations. where are the extremes in the high and low? end, you havew brazil and russia, which are in the low and single digits, two to four times depending on how you wish to value them. india are trading in the high teens. that is a egg spread that you are not likely to see in many environments. >> does

the problem is europe is good, e.m. isn't doing much. the prob blemg with that position is that's consensus. i was at a conference in london, that's consensus. where are the surprises going to come from? china has the ability to do monetary and fiscal stimulus that nobody else in the world does. don't expect a lot but, boy, that would be the positive surprise. u.s., the head winds from oil, they fade. you're not going to see another 30% rally in the dollar. so u.s. probably does a little better than we're expecting right now. the europe story, i've been behind it. i love it. i think it's great. boy, i'll tell you it hasn't done as much this year as it should be. >> we'll see. >> someone explain to me, sorkin you can explain this to me, too. you're not likely to see the dollar go up as much or oil fall as much as it has in the last year but if it just stays -- if both of those things stay where they are in the doldrums in depression level, you know, just because the comparisons aren't getting worse, the earnings for the oil group are goin