i would like to start with the ecb. if you were one of the members of the ecb, would you be voting for further stimulus? because not everyone is. the germans, estonians, latvians, they say, let's just see what happens. the data is showing surprises. camp can would you be -- would you be in? charlie: as you correctly say, it is not black and white. on the other hand, if you look at inflation, it is well below the ecb's target. some of that is obviously due to oiltemporary effects, weak prices. if you strip that out, underlying inflation is well below the target of close to 2%. it is important that the ecb, that people believe it is committed to achieving that in the medium-term. betty: do you have doubts -- mark: do you have doubts they can achieve that? there are worries about credibility issues. is that -- charlie: that's precisely why it is important that the ecb sense of the message that it is committed to achieving its target. one of the problems over the past two years when the ecb has left underlying inflation sli

we get the german angle on the ecb. ecb decision day.bloomberg team, good luck. ♪ manus: draghi decision. expectations are high ahead of the ecb announcement. how far will they go to boost inflation? the russian president is set to get his annual speech any moment now. areey, syria, and terror expected to be on his agenda. saudi speculation. opecountry may suggest an production cut in 2016. we're live from vienna ahead of the cartel's meeting.

the ecb is moving before the fed this month and the ecb has been waiting for the fed to hike at leasthis year and in small steps by the end of this year. it hasn't happened this far and the ecb is moving first and has decided to push toward more stimulus. there was a great article on bloomberg today. i agree with the title and conclusion which says mario draghi has become the new greatest risk manager in the world now that the fed is about to hike. they want to make sure this recovery in europe, however fragile, however imbalanced maybe, will continue into next year and strengthen. brought i like that you that up. given that the ecb has taken up that mental, does mario draghi have room to back out if he needs to? frederik: right now, given the excitement the ecb itself has contributed to create, i think it is quite difficult. again, they are moving first and before the fed. it is clear for the ecb that it is a difficult equation. something more important has changed this year in terms of the ecb's approach and reaction function. whatever happens this month or in the next few quarters

ecb, the fed, the bank of england. all central banks. the ecb, theor fed, the bank of england.s this mean we do not talk to our colleagues? certainly not. extensive fairly habit of consultation, discussion, explanation. of the reasons why we do certain things. so we have what we call the spillovers and the effects of the spillovers in mind certainly. but as i said we are bound by our mandates. >> by increasing the asset purchase until 2017, we must have in mind that the balance sheet of the ecb could reach roughly 40% of the global eurozone and gdp. is it not a burden that at one level could be too heavy to bear and play a role in the discussion when you decide to expand or not the amount of this program? and can you explain the rationale behind the answer you to the ombudsman of the european parliament imposing a quiet room to for all -- quiet period. point, theirst balance sheet of a central bank is an instrument. as such, it should be used to reach the objective. which is price stability. as we have defined here. there isn't a size that is better than another size. gauge is

yes, we think the ecb is going to do more.a bit of a setback what we experienced in december. we had expected the ecb to do more. the consensus seems to be somewhat on the cautious side. we will get more forecasts longer-term from the ecb in march. they may still look kind of benign but with oil prices lower than we thought at the end of last year, it still looks likely that assets will grow on the pressure to the ecb. betty: does that lead you to believe there will be parity between a dollar and the euro in 2016? >> i certainly would not rule that out. i think the pressure on the euro will continue to be on the downside. if got some factors which play in favor of the euro like the surplus but in terms of the central bank policy the exchange rate for the euro has downside risks it >> what about manufacturing and growth in the eurozone? do you expect continued improvement with our without ecb intervention? will manufacturing data look pretty good? >> manufacturing is interesting in the european economy. it's not what's driving

the market front runs the ecb, since the yield lower and lower, and the ecb has to bend the rules question mark what is a keep cutting the deposit -- why does it keep cutting the deposit rate? has forced money out of europe to get the currency down. we have the bond yield falling while 10-year treasury yields a super rare occurrence on any kind of lasting perspective. 1994 was not a year to be looking for treasury yields to rise and bond yields to fall. think the european question is what will the ecb's further quantitative easing do for supply growth lending? possibly not very much. they will get the euro weaker if they can. -- mark: how are they yielding? perhaps by dropping any reference to september 2016. they will keep buying until they can add, perhaps by dropping some global encouragement. look, if we have to do more, we will do more. it will be difficult to keep pushing on this. it really gets difficult -- does the euro rise against the dollar, or does it fall after the thursday, because this will say a lot? kit: i think the dollar falls after the fed moves or does not move on the

where did the ecb fail? is action that counts of course and the markets might have short-term reaction but they take the action seriously. there has been serious action today with five decisions all-important in my opinion. i expect the market to recognize these were really decisions that count. i really trust the short-term should not be considered any i would say in any way an important reaction. >> the market seems to think there needs to be more stimulus. the ecb does not. who is right? >> what is being done by the ecb and what works were the most important sentences by mario draghi today were if you do more, it's not because it failed but because it worked. i trust it is true. when you look at the economy when he look at the diminishing of unemployment which has been quite substantial coming from 11.5 to 10.7. when you compare with the pm eye, you see the hook is going in the right direction. it meets a lot of efforts. a lot of efforts a by government, social partners, those who have a stake. the centra

the ecb decision is at 12:45.rg will have it first. ♪ ♪ this morning mario draghi will rescue your from deflation and delays. there will be questions and answers at his press conference. they adjust the euro and sterling as they adapt. the yellen dollar. opec meets to greet amid tense discussions in indiana. good morning. this is blue book surveillance. caroline hyde, good morning.

the ecb needs to preserve the ammunition for the future.ark: have we seen the lows for the euro in 2015? valentin: i think we could still drift lower. we have to deal with the fed. we are still seeing demand for euro funding. global corporations and international companies are trying to benefit from the attractive funding conditions in the eurozone. they buy them and then resell them to repay expensive dollar debt. that is an important structural negative factor. $1.06.l for this year is $1.02.could reach closer to parity. will convince investors that europe is not such a bad currency after all. the long term 2017, we see the dollar drifting higher. brendan: when of the reasons we talks of much about the ecb is that there is my much -- there is very little in the way of structural reform. but that is starting to change. you have sweden's saying they will run a deficit. thatve france saying brussels, we will run a deficit and you can lump it. see -- moreing to fiscal stimulus? valentin: we are on the verge of a sustained cyclical recovery in

that is due to the mandate that the ecb has.al reserve has a of mandates they have to fulfill. the ecb has a single one. stability was seen around the 2% mark. obviously, any sort of interest low move was to keep it rather than drive it higher. i think mario draghi is doing his best to do what needs to be done. i do feel there is a divergent path there. it does come down to timing and it is very much due to the fact that the ecb had their hands tied for a while. scarlet: brenda kelly, you are sticking with us. we will be right back on "what'd you miss?" ♪ i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" brenda kelly is back with us. joe: one of the things that you was this ideaier that the euro zone economy is not quite as bad as people inc.. we had decent pmi numbers and some all right employment numbers out of germany and italy earlier. what is your assessment of the economy and the europe -- in the eurozone right now? brenda: i think pmi does look stronger. then there have been some member states that were at 21-month lows in october. it

the ecb likes to surprise. in all major draghi decisions, the ecb has delivered a bit more than the market was expecting. over the last few days, with everybody talking about this, it will be difficult for the ecb to deliver the expected surprise. francine: the markets are already pricing a lot in. does mario draghi need to do a little more? does he have the power to do a little more? inid: i agree with holger that that is draghi's style. if you look at the monetary policy reforms he's implemented in his time, when they were unannounced or hinted at with that famous "whatever it takes" speech and qe about a year-and-a-half ago, expectations were quite elevated. tothe end, he still managed surpass a bit of expectations. the ecb is certainly talented enough and can gauge expectations. . wouldn't be surprised holder, what would surprise you in terms of his delivery? i'm also curious in terms of the unanimity of the ecb. do you expect a unanimous support of draghi tomorrow? run us through what would be over deliver

the ecb has played its hand. see some anticancer emerging markets or has it been so well flagged it will not be any need for that? >> i hope we do not. there is a risk that you get a reaction because we have postponed this move 70 times. we have talked it to death. a large part of me thinks we do this in december and we go on wrapping presents. anna: they are watching very carefully. >> the currency looks cheap and huge.count looks the housing market is booming. the rates are too low and they will probably cut them again. and the swiss likewise. of next on the program, britain joins the battle in appears totin deliver his annual state of the nation address. we look at the geopolitical landscape. coming up next. ♪ sure, tv has evolved over the years. it's gotten squarer. brighter. bigger. it's gotten thinner. even curvier. but what's next? for all binge watchers. movie geeks. sports freaks. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. anna: you are watching "countdown." let's get the bloomberg first work

to ecb has been struggling correct the perception. those hedge funds have been getting unfair access dating back to the inadvertent release of information back in may. they may 18, when disclosed sensitive market information. there were new guidelines issued october 6. what are the tricky guidelines balance? you want them to understand exactly what is going on out there. there needs to be some balance. they need to say the right things at the right time to the right group of people. paul: it is a matter of perception, balanced against getting the right people. look at december 31 bc be ecb announced policy stimulus. the markets misunderstood what they were going to do. the markets have suggested that the ecb was very doveish. nobody wanted the outcome that we got. there was a disconnect between the policy and market expectations. one way to correct that is to get in there and talk to banks and hedge funds, workout how the markets are likely to react to certain policy reforms. that is the transmission mechanism for policy. it is very d

the ecb is going to do this.re domestic factors on either side committee the service sector in the u.s. is strong. look at the car sales data. a very strong story. the u.s. is dealing with its own story. my own question on the ecb is, how fast can they get things moving? we do a little bit more on qe. we cover deposit rates. is it going to be enough? what do they need to do? what can they do above and beyond this if inflation continues to track where it is? the reality is no one knows the answer to this. neither us nor draghi himself. he has no idea how quickly monetary policy is going to translate into a rise in inflation. he can throw more stimulus at the problem because that does lead to a stronger recovery, which will eventually feed into higher inflation. he is going to want to do everything -- if we look at his two past decisions, when he hinted at a major action, the famous whatever it takes speech. it strongly hinted at qe. he surprised the markets on the upside. his style has been to hint at something an

he is a former member of the ecb and ran the ecb in cyprus. he joins us from cambridge. look at the headlines, there is a lot of emphasis on how the ecb can use further tools is needed. he is acknowledging underwhelming markets? first, i will say this is the most positive element i have seen in a press conference he gave yesterday. towent to great lengths explain the quantitative easing works, and eventually they will do more. the disappoint them twice that they did not do enough yesterday. it was clear. i was glad to see effectively communication today in new york. they are prepared to do more in order for the ecb to meet its objective. scarlet: i want to talk about what is happening at the next meeting. he is keeping his powder dry and had said there are options ecb can take. what is it do for the ecb in january after the fed liftoff? >> i do not expect anything at the next meeting. i would hope they would reevaluate their stance at the march meeting, that would give us fresh projections. one of the disappointments yesterday, and this is also from the september meeting

plenty of ecb speakers ahead. talking for the last 90 minutes about whether you need to revisit the 2016 trade.uro are you rethinking it after thursday's events? >> the short euro, it depends on where you got in. people were in at short levels that were sub optimal. i think that for the time being, mario draghi is probably happy with the middle of the range now. from the ecb standpoint, they are happy. they could do more if they need to do more, but i think they're comfortable where the currency is. guy: long european equities, a crowded trade, a little less crowded now, did thursday change anything going into next year about how that trade works? >> the key point is that even though it is less crowded now, it's probably still quite crowded. i think that is what will drive that trade in the next few weeks and early next year. then we have to see what happens , how the fed move is digested, what that will mean. i don't think we get european equities decoupling too much. the next big event risk is the fed jonathan:.

ecb does not by greek debt desk ecb does not -- ecb does not buy greek debt.rik: germany does not really needed. the problem is in germany, the real issue is one agent who can borrow at now negative rates and they don't want to. policy -- their fiscal policy is all good. tom: if you can bring up the chart. this is a great op-ed from mark gilbert. when ecb was starting, i interviewed some of their governors. erik nielsen, this is a one-year chart from jockey stimulus. that is a 12% weakness in the euro. it is amazing what people think. what is your call for the euro? it will turn around 1.05. it will grind higher again. tom: why is the weaker of crew wrong? erik: people believe in going through parity. that is what draghi wants. know how deep they ally wanted. if you wake up tomorrow morning or this afternoon and euro-dollar is an parity, i don't think they like that speed down. in europe -- americans have a deficit. outflow of america. the whole drive down. -- the whole drive down is hot money. tom: i was amazed how the markets move. do you predict major moves

the ecb? or the hedge funds?at the ecb is talking to market participants ,s not a surprise as you say increasingly away from these key meetings. it is a tricky balance. they need to be informed. how do they strike that balance? paul: it is a difficult one to do. most people would have some sympathy, the fact that the ecb doesn't need to talk to market participants. does need to talk to market participants. in its and know-how investors are going to be reacting -- it does need to know how investors are going to be reacting. it does not disclose harkin sensitive information in a disclose forum -- market sensitive information in a nonpublic or. -- nonpublic forum. isner --l gordon john paul gordon joining us there. turkey votes at christmas. will it get an interest rate decision? -- of the first markets to says fed lift off. we'll tell you what to expect coming up next. ♪ >> insightful. >> innovative. anna: welcome back you're watching countdown. turkey announces its latest rate decision. the central bank governors

the ecb calling the shots. europe trading cautiously higher ahead of expected easing from the ecb while fed chair janet yellen sounding her most hawkish going into next week's anticipated rate hike. >> when the committee begins to normalize the stance of policy, doing so will be a testament also

the ecb maintained its policy rate at the current level. ecb president draghi stressed the board's willingness to use all its available policy levers. >> given continued high structural unemployment and low potential outgrowth in the euro area, the ongoing cyclical recovery should be supported by effective structural policies. >> the ecb's new measures came amid fears of deflation in the eurozone. analysts say a further slow-down in china could hurt germany and other economies. many people in the markets had expected bolder measures from the ecb, such as expanding the amount of asset buying. so analysts say many investors disappointed and selling shares worldwide. tokyo stock prices opened sharply lower. nikkei trading lower by nearly 1.8%, 19,583 at the moment. at one point it tumbled to the lowest level since mid-november. all sectors are lower amid the downbeat sentiment. the euro jumped against other major courage cies after the ecb announcement. the single currency hit a one-month high against the dollar. the dollar fell against the ye

the ecb has to push the growth.licy plus structure reform will eventually sort out your. you could not get all of the policies together, but there are problems the u.s. doing that as about. what i do see is more labor market flexibility. i see a central bank doing its job. central deficits that have come down. that is not a bad backdrop. is, is theretion double-digit returns in europe because europe has been so beaten down? james: the double-digit returns in europe is partly because, as we talked about earlier, because europe has a yield, a recovery, meaning growth can pick up, or the u.s.pe has lagged and japan and its earning growth. that will pick up in the next couple of years. nextthe way they solve for year was when does the bank of england raise rates? back to the issue of wage ,rowth, you said in the break you were sitting there when he said he would raise rates. he hasn't. he continues to oscillate around if he will be able to do so. what do you see in the u.k. that will provide any upside for mark carney t

the ecb calling the shots. europe trading cautiously higher ahead of expected easing from the ecb while fed chair janet yellen sounding her most hawkish going into next week's anticipated rate hike. >> when the committee begins to normalize the stance of policy, doing so will be a testament also to how far our economy has come in recovering from the effects of the financial crisis and the great recession. >> the san bernardino police force says terrorism is not ruled out in the motive behind a shooting in california that left 14 people dead and 17 wounded. >> based upon what we have seen and how they were equipped there had to have been some degree of planning that went into this. i don't think they just ran home and put on these clothes and grabbed guns and came back on a spur of the moment thing. we have not ruled out terrorism. >> tkey will regret what it did. strong words from vladimir putin that said the world will not ignore turkish aiding of terrorists. >> brazil house improves impeachment proceedings ag

we are expecting the ecb tomorrow. will they add to the stimulus. 100% of the economists we spoke , we will see more stimulus coming from the ecb tomorrow. inflation data set to be poor later today. 2% target.ff the go here tog way to still more room for stimulus. this is why we are seeing the euro down against the dollar. 1.06. parityll reach below come next year. meanwhile, we have on the flipside the dollar creeping up. we are coming off of the highs. anticipation we'll see janet yellen add to raining back the stimulus. inwill see a rate hike come december. we get the first speech coming from janet yellen today. will she stick to her more hawkish tones? oil down by .1%. 44.99.trading it that is brent. that is as we anticipate the vienna meeting. oil ministers gather to decide whether -- where they're going to put oil production. they decided if they would go for oil share rather than prices. let's have a look at some of the stocks to watch. i've got apple trading flat. you --ot ad court for accor for you. they are r

the ecb is focused on.han: scott, to talk about the european economy, let's talk of the bond market. what is the biggest riser for the ecb or the fed? what is going to guide global sovereign debt markets? the frontush high at and have some sort of feet through into the european bond market as well? scott: the ecb is going to keep monetary policy very easy for very long time. we can talk about whether they disappointed the market. the front end of germany price disappointing it -- disappointing. the idea being that despite disappointing the market to some extent of the qe program, maybe the size of the rate cut, they were pretty accommodative. to bemind, that is going a major driver of valuations in the european bond market. there is a substitution effect that goes across these markets. that is the risk free space. investors will swap treasuries for deals. boone's for treasuries. what you get to investing in peripheral markets like portugal, yet to take some view around ecb monetary policy. i would take one

the ecb same thing if you look at the 10 year.g if you look in -- you see the same thing if you look in gold. more interesting is oil. oil dropped after bloomberg news reported the ceiling for opec's production would be raised rather than lowered, which you might expect. i just want to point out on the isrg terminal, opec a great function. it gives you so much information on opec. saudi is the biggest piece of the pipe. they produce 32% of the oil that all of opec makes. one of the few opec makers that has excess capacity of. they could produce more but they do not. everyone else with the exception nigeria, produces as much oil as it can possibly get out of the ground because they need that money. betty: at some point during this year, they were producing as much as 32 billion barrels. they'reat is when ceiling was only 30 billion barrels. they are always producing more than they are allowed to because saudi can not hold the poorest states in check and those states are asking saudi to cut their own production. betty: thank yo

the ecb wants to push them out the door.would assume the current policy is not working, but mario draghi seems to have faith in it. back on theyou go chart, previous efforts to lower the deposit rate helped push out reserves, and they believe that will happen again. they made another cut of 10 basis points yesterday. the markets wanted more. vonnie: that is why there was so much talk about a potential two-tier system, one for the deposit then another for just -- michael: the ecb has a two-tier system now, the rates that the banks pay each other. and they have a deposit rate. what they are talking about is if they had cut the deposit rate too much, it would affect bank profits, so there would be a lower rate for smaller banks that could not afford to absorb that. they decided not to go with that. vonnie: thank you so much. a wonderful single best chart, which i am sure you will tweet out. follow us on twitter. i am vonnie quinn as well. let's take a look at some photos making news today. -- aliber three photo immediatelling f

we are talking about the euro, ecb.back with us, the chief market strategist at an enterprise financial. so much going on. so many moves coming off of european central bank decisions today. what stood up for you? >> primarily the fact that the european central banks seem to have underwhelmed the market after raising expectations that they would come with barrels blazing. they did not. carol: why didn't they? >> i think you have to take mario draghi at his word when he said we think this is enough. if that is the case, if he believes that, there is always the ability to do more. , why do moreght than he thinks he needs to? clearly, the market for expecting more, and now you see it reflected in the currency markets. do you thinkch mario draghi and ecb is looking at the global macro picture, just as we have seen with the fed and janet yellen, keeping an eye on china or other overseas developments that impact the global market? >> clearly that is important, more important to the eurozone debt it is to the u.s. they are much

we have a hawkish low from the ecb. and is the impact of draghi the ecb? >> that is a great quote.hink, to me, the thing i have been focused on throughout the past week is, what is the impact going to be on the euro dollar exchange rate? we have talked about this various times on and off this week. i don't think the ecb wanted the euro to be trading at parity in a short space of time. jonathan: you have said that. >> they don't want it trading at $1.15, but they are pretty happy with it trading at $1.05. if you look at the inflation forecasts, $1.09 is the rate they used, which is where we are right now. the market disappointed, but i don't know necessarily, if draghi would be disappointed. jonathan: when you have the market move against you with that vicious and aggressive move against the euro, that stinks of a policy missteps and a communication error. that is hard to say that is not what happened this month. >> i would argue that the price moved against those that shortened the euro yesterday. nths andwind 2-3 mo look at what is changed on the governing council. the deposit rat

the ecb is expecting fireworks to send stocks lower. click job stay in the usa, the fed signaled a liftoff, what would it take to delay a rate hike? caroline: some opec nations call for production cuts. we wait for a decision and vienna later today. ♪ caroline: welcome to countdown, i'm anna edwards print manus point: what a day. stocks and bonds all took a thrashing. stocks jobbing the most since august. the euro soaring the most in five years. manus: the question is, this is yesterday's move. a rally about 3%. the biggest move since 2009 when the fed said they would buy $300 million off the treasuries. the question i am asking is, is this euro drop me -- euro rally debt? -- bed? dead? anna: we have the jobs report of the u.s.. how week with that number have to be to keep the fed from raising? manus: we go for an unemployment rate of 5%. yellen has given us the curtain raise. anna: let's get a first word news. slipped: the euro has the most since 2009. investors shift their addition -- attention to the rate hike. it was versus the doll

the ecb's vice chairman saying the markets got it wrong. they didn't read our reaction function correctly. quick look at the euro dollar this morning. we're back below the 109 level where we spiked over yesterday. but at this time yestee're still closer to 105. we saw the 3% jump in yesterday's trading session. the german yield curve is looking like this. we saw that big 20 basis point jump in ten year bund yields. we're lower. 66 basis points is where we are. european markets extended yesterday's losses. we're down for the xetra dax but off by 0.2% after the loss in yesterday's session. >> focus switches from europe to the u.s. today with the nfps and what that will mean for the fed. likely of course to mean very little. yellen seems like she'll want to hike either way. now that's it for today's worldwide exchange. thanks so much for watching. i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm carolin roth. >> up next, u.s. squawk box. stay tuned. buy for now. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows. that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can d

i think the ecb has fired its last shot.uy: how important is china in this decision-making process? china is coming out and saying we will do more monetary policy. 'll change taxes. is that a pivotal factor in which those two central banks, ecb, might end up swinging. china stabilizes, that is another reason for bundesbank to say we do not need any more changes. china has a lot of room to cut its benchmark rate. don't. the others there is policy room for the chinese to come to the support of its economy. if it can support its economy, and germany does ok, then the bundesbank has another reason against ecb dovishness. der europeanwi question we are starting to see as a result of what happened in spain over the course of the weekend is that we used to have very tightened fiscal policy and loose monetary policy. maybe we are starting to see that tip a bit over the course of 2016 with the rise of policymakers within europe and maybe a slightly tighter ecb. guy: we will leave it there. thank you very much, indeed. simon kennedy.

they are charging banks with the ecb.gure that will make the banks take money away from the ecb, take the money away and push it out into the economy and lend it. they will not see gains in lending. we'll have more pressure and squeeze profit margins. they will have to do something. but so far, there hasn't been enough of an effect. where you are seeing the bond market, traders keep bedding that they may move lower. >> right. >> and they push down rates. the ecb changes a moving target. in this case because he disappointed, yields have gone back up. we could see possibly a positive impact. it is quite a take a while to play out. betty liu: we are going to take you to bloomberg radio where our team is speaking. >> this is in train now. gothey are certainly set to and something i have been encouraging for a while. it not because of the fact that wages are increasing. wages were up .2%. there is no pressure from the standpoint of wages but the fed is ready to go. i think because of concerns on the real economy, and it is an

the day for the ecb meeting is coming closer.he bit of data today that was really interesting was the euro-area confliction data. for the month of november. economists were looking for .2%. the view the ecb will have to do something tomorrow. mario draghi only said a few weeks ago he will do what he must to inflate inflation which is below the goal of 2%. of 2017, it has been nowhere near that target. this is one spot that is standing out. also, the world's big steel center, the company will be even lower next year after a collapse in prices of steel. there is no recommendation from .eutral to buy they are saying they jumped the gun and upgrading the shares in october. it has been downgraded in december. the not want to bang drum's. it is all about the ecb, and we are so nearly there. betty: one more day. i will see you in a little bit for the european close. is live fromttle the nasdaq where she is looking at 2 early winners. yahoo! is one of the big winners after it was reported the board is considering if the company should se

the ecb is meeting in frankfurt right now. then president mario draghi will hold a news conference 45 minutes later. expected to expand the central bank's bond buying program. they're also looking for a deposit rate cut. the euro is under a bit of pressure. let's also take a look at european stocks at this hour. you're looking at a picture of -- well, things look increasingly better. this is the injection issue that we always talk about. we're also watching the energy markets this morning, opec ministers are gathering for a meeting tomorrow. reuters reporting saw day rab i can't is going to be proposal the cartel cut output by 1 million barrels a day next year. they resisted calls for any market intervention. oil trading right now, wti is at 40.73. here are a few of the other agenda items likely to drive trading. fed chair janet yellen will be testifying before the joint economic committee meeting at 10:00 eastern time. lots of data including weekly jobless claims. and factory orders and a number of consumer names on the earni

the ecb is in an easing stance doing qe. it doesn't destroy the longer term story but it has made us hook at our 1 to 3 month forecast and question them for now. >> how are you repositioning your fixed income strategy right now? any changes after that shock? >> it's a bit of a sigh of relief. we think the euro zone is going to recouple over the next year or so so the move wes have been seeing until yesterday were the ones we were worried about. the correction we've seen now which could go further is something we have been calling for really. >> but surely the fed can't only be looking at the nonfarm payroll data for today. we had a strong print the month before november. what would a disappointing print be today? 150? 100? >> the payrolls is always so volatile i would be surprised if they paid much attention to it on the day. >> precisely. >> the earnings is the big th g thing. that's what needs to keep accelerating whatever they might be doing. they want to see evidence they're tightening up so when they hike they feel conf

of course, a lot was happening yesterday with the ecb.he jobs report, which could be the crucial jobs report, most likely the last before a rate hike -- what do we need to see? eal: it is about meeting market expectations for the view that the fed will raise interest rates. we have a very wide range of forecasts today. of ftn financial says if we get in the 150,000 or greater range, that will do the job for wall street. the consensus is 200,000. still strong -- we are hiring for holidays right now. the unemployment rate, no change forecast. that could pick up a little bit based on rounding, and we should see some wage gain. but overall, it is satisfying the market and the fed will be satisfied. vonnie: there has been some concern that december is not the best month for a rate increase, year-end positions and market liquidity. but there it have to be some sort of outside surprise for there to not be a hike. michael: absolutely. you have to have some really knolow number. we have some liquidity issues, but i this point, is it really going t

if the ecb is underwhelming, the outlook does not get stronger. is a mediocre outlook at best globally. this week we have taken down growth forecasts in japan, india, brazil, left them unchanged in europe, and a below consensus in china. it is not a solid growth outlook globally. the u.s. is the one bright spot at 2.5%. the marketg about reaction i found interesting is that if mario draghi over delivered on stimulus yesterday, we might have seen a dramatic strengthening in the dollar. janet yellen and the fed clearly do not want that. do you think the federal reserve and the ecb may have coordinated? >> i think they talk, but i don't think they coordinated this. the viewer central bankers as you take care of your shop and i would take care of mine. the ecb eases, the easier it is for the fed to go because it reduces downside risks. there is communication, but i don't think this was coordinated. when the chair talks about the dollar it is because everywhere else is weak and the u.s. can only diverge at a certain pace, and the more monetary policy t

and mario draghi defending his ecb decision. that deal to sell its appliance division to electrolux. what all of this means for ge and the swedish company. ♪ betty: good morning. welcome back to bloomberg market. time for the bloomberg business flash. russia's junkand status. the cost of guarding russia against default climbed for a second straight week because slumping oil prices. credit default swaps suggest that russia should be four steps lower than its current rating. one level short of investment grade. to streamlineve its european banking operations will probably leave it under direct ecb supervision. andining citibank europe the uk's citibank international would leave $57 billion in assets. fordespread recall of fusions. the gas tanks may crack and leak, possibly leading to fires. nearly 452,000 vehicles are affected, most of them in the u.s. you can always get more business news at bloomberg.com. desk.o the markets is top of thee charts. >> chipotle is top of the charts -- on the bottom of the charts for this. it's actu

and the ecb changes a moving target. in this case because he disappointed, yields have gone back up. we could see possibly a positive impact. it is quite a take a while to play out. guest: we are going to take you to bloomberg radio where our team is speaking. is in train now. >> based on my goal. it is something that i have been encouraging for a a while. wages were .2%. there is no pressure from the standpoint of wages but the fed is ready to go. because of concerns on the real economy, and it is an interesting experiment over the next three months or so. as they shift to a new policy in terms of determining the fed rate. quest please address for the international audience how janet yellen can avoid international mediocrities including the problems mario draghi has. >> the fed has backed off 12 months ago. statement yesterday was quite interesting. he gave the markup most of what they wanted. he is and do a what ever it takes mode. he included additional assets. it seemed like a very stimulative full board statement. t

but it was really the ecb effect. e:

they are charging banks to leave ecb.e they figure that will make the banks taken away and portion into the economy and lend it. but that is not happening. we are not seeing huge gains in lending. put moreave to pressure on them to squeeze profit margins. where you are seeing the impact is the bond market. where they are moving lower and they pushed down rates. the ecb changes a moving target. in this case because he disappointed, yields have gone back up. we could see possibly a positive impact. it is quite a take a while to play out. betty liu: we are going to take you to bloomberg radio where our -- stephanie: we are going to take you to bloomberg radio where our team is speaking. >> this is in train now. bill gross: well yes. they are certainly set to go and something i have been encouraging for a while. it not because of the fact that wages are increasing. or the tightness of the labor market. as a matter of fact wages were , up .2%. there is no pressure from the standpoint of wages but the fed is ready to go. i thin

mark, you are keeping your eye on this and also the euro and it gains after the ecb.ark: it is rising for the second executive week, gaining about 30% versus the dollar since mario draghi unveiled the rebooted stimulus package that fell short of many expectations. jeremy french is here. meeting chickset -- fed meeting change the euro-dollar dynamic since last thursday? it is rising for two weeks. it has not done that since october. how does wednesday change the dynamic when it comes to euro-dollar? jeremy: the assumption initially that the federal reserve will hike rate. we are seeing a degree of volatility this afternoon. maybe people will become a little reticent pricing that to the same degree come wednesday. assuming they do raise, where do we go from here? how far do we go for tightening in 2016? if the markets anticipate the fed is going to be more aggressive in discounting currently, that might encourage a little bit of a pullback. we are in a new trading range for euro-dollar. we will not see pullbacks below this level we were trading at immediately ahead of t

mark: does the market reaction to the ecb's announcement theerday, does it tell us ecb failed in itsnication or does it highlight irrational exuberance among market participants? of the first and a lot of the second. you said it yourself. you said the market has been drunk on central bank stimulus. imagine someone who is getting drunk and suddenly the bartender provides a somewhat smaller beer. the reaction will be pretty strong. that is what you have seen. i have little sympathy with the notion that the ecb miscommunicated. i have a lot more sympathy with we have a very unhealthy codependence between central bank and markets and that codependence means that people are pressing the other side to do even more and at some point it becomes unsustainable. that was earlier today. now is the anchor of "what did you miss?" right in the middle , right in line with expectations and that was important because if it had been week people would have been -- if it hade fed been strong people would be like, maybe the pace of hiking will not be so gradual. both of those extremes could have set the m

that of course being one of the issues that the ecb is dealing with. it came in a little bit shy of expectations. we're looking at a euro dollar a bit. that's pushed quite substantially in the last couple of sessions and just to mention as well, the yield reversing a slightly early rise that we were seeing after this week and anticipated euro zone inflation print. >> evi want to show you what u. futures look like early on this morning. we're a couple of hours away but we're looking at green across the charts. s&p 500 seen higher by 2.4 points or 0.1% and the same for the nasdaq 100. this was after yesterday. we saw a rally across the board. all sectors higher with health care leading the gains. why? no specific reason and shrugging off the fact that we have a very poor manufacturing print for the first time since 2012 this print was in contraction territory. the nasdaq 100 saw a gain of 1.1% and it closed just three points from its all time closing high. european markets are slightly mixed to higher today. and seems like they gained steam since we got

like the ecb. joe: speaking of the ecb, we have this question of how successful they are going to be. do you think they will succeed in getting the economy back to the u.s.? mean fors that longer-term rates in the states of germany and france? >> a lot of people are not caught onto this yes. europe is growing at about what they typically grow. are growing at about 1.5%, maybe a little bit lower than last. that is not bad given the growth potential. i heard one guest say that growth is near 2.5% in the u.s., which is on trend in i would sure closer to 2% -- on trend. i would show it closer to 2%. growth used to be trend growth, and the u.s. used to be 3% or above right now i think it is 2%. there is a lot of new news to consider here. we talked about divergence being a widely telegraphed the man -- theme. what does the face of divergence look like in 2016? it will depend upon factors, but: look in a way we are not anticipating that how will it look in a way we are not ?nticipatin ada eased in the fi

watch for the ecb tomorrow.g in pretty much as expected, but it is stuck near zero, which reinforces -- european stocks up, 1.0591. tom: let's start out with a discussion, you're-end on economics, but particularly finance and investment. we will discuss compensation of global wall street. -- david a sarah -- right now the melding is pretty ugly. i would suggest, with great , that the announcement yesterday is not a one-off. there are a lot of hedge funds on return money. do you agree? dobby daycod -- davide: when you love or something five years, 20 business points, and best you make one point. think those strategies are basically gone. --: we are going to talk it we are going to talk market drawdown. you have high fees 2%. if your hedge fund goes down in ,alue to get to the hurdle rate get back to the hurdle rate with in,% -- where the 20% kicks it becomes literally an impossibility, right? you're talking about a function of global regulation. banks used to provide cheap viancing to these guys repo. then the fe