she laid out why not get there so quickly esther george is very worried about the ability of markets and the economy to adjust to these big rate hikes and i don't know if you noticed but some corporate bonds have blown out. a little bit of disruption there and so esther george, what she wants to do is make sure the fed reduces its balance sheet. she does not want to see another taper tantrum or a situation we had in 2019. so she's the one who even as you remember one of the most hawkish members of the federal reserve, wants the fed to move in a more predictable manner to not create volatility that might disrupt the plans to reduce the balance sheet. >> she was the dissent last month, right, i think? >> absolutely, and she's sticking to their dissenting guns her speech really explained in greater detail why she did that and, honestly, esther george, plain spoken idwesterner, make a lot of sense to me i don't remember ever, kelly, and you know i have been doing this for a long time -- you have, too, but it doesn't show as much -- i don't remember this volatility going in two weeks befo

this is the title of fed president esther george, she was the lone dissenter on the 735-cent rate hiketoo fast warn of oversteering. we have chief economist brian wesbury. george, might be alone at the fomc but others like scott minerd, 75 basis points this time around probably seals the deal for recession. what are your thoughts? >> i think about "lonesome dove," danny glover, robert duvall, esther george, what a great show. i guess the point i would make, charles, because the way the federal reserve changed monetary policy in 2008, when they started quantitative easing they separated interest rates from the money supply. so, yes, raising rates causes you know house, housing, sales to slow, raises the discount rate for stocks price but at the same time if they don't slow down the money supply growth you still have an inflationary and growth impulse in the economy so i'm not convinced that another 75 would cause a recession like that. eventually though the fed's going to have to go far enough to cause a recession. we don't think that is going to happen until 2023. it is not the next 75

at the last meeting was that there was this tradeoff the higher rates could have on the market esther george was arguing for the 50-point increase and not as high as 75 we'll see if there's a bias toward an even bigger one. ylam mui, a sign of recession against the two year straight to the market move. joining us ally mccartney. the last few days have felt bullish. this very hawkish fed minutes is being dismissed by the market. is that the right move >> i think everything you said is right on in terms of the stalemate of the commentary since we've had testimony and a strong dollar and global fed follows suit we have had a risk reversal in the last number of days. this rotation focusing on the impact of higher sustained inflation versus a global slowing has really changed that's evidenced in three ways first what has outperformed. we've had profitless tech outperform value second we have seen the fed funds move from pricing a terminal rate of four to 3.4 and an 80 basis points of decrease next year and then the third is what we've seen in the commodities market the last three days i don't thi

he made a good point that esther george made in her dissent last time that you don't want to go too farally if the chances of recession or a significant slowdown are growing, because, you could find yourself in a slowdown or contraction. then, the monetary policy you did a couple months ago makes things worse. so, we will see what the data show. but, waller at this point, i think, is most likely to try to lead people to 75. jon: it's been a big conversation this week, mike, with the bank of canada making 100 basis points of the new 75. speaking of canada, the bank of canada governor's feeling some heat from the markets on whether or not this country can't navigate a so-called soft landing. you got into those details specifically with waller talking about the current state of the job market. maybe, you can elaborate on that front? his perspective there? mike: well, he is looking at even just headline numbers like this 3.6 percent unemployment rate and said it is inconceivable that you could be in a recession with that low of unemployment. he didn't think that because of inflation and the

did you see esther george being dovish which is very unusual for her and for the kansas city fed. she is worried about a slowdown. >> worried about a mistake i do think it's right to say the market is nervous about calling a peak at least the stock market is the bond market is kind of saying, look, if you look at the few years out inflation is not going to be the big problem. it's not always correct. but they moved on from that. that could be because they figure a recession will be the ultimate thing one way or another, there is victory against inflation. it could be the hard way or easy way. that's what the stock market is struggling >> easing on the other side. >> mike, thank you we'll see you soon for more on the market, let's bring in tony dwyer. you expected a summer rally. we certainly got that. we're 6% off the lows. whap what happens next >> exactly right we found a great indicator making qualify whether it's a bottom or the bottom and then figure out it's a bottom, how much should you rally before you retest the low and what we found is that we sthu expect about another 5

kansas city fed president esther george is worried that rushing to raise rates could backfire.nted last month. what is that key messaging and plea for caution from george? >> i think it was an interesting reminder about the gravity of what the fed is doing at the moment. we are talking about last month rate hike the biggest since 1994 and it looks like we are on track for another 75 basis point hike this month. these are huge interest rate moves. ms. george said at some point this will hit the consumer. there is already a lot of talk about recession risk in the u.s. she made the point that we should be careful about the pace and it is the signaling that is just as important. she did dissent against the 75 last month. her urging of caution -- there are those that say the u.s. is headed toward a steep slow down given the pace of hikes the fed is pushing through. shery: and rafael bostic had a different take as to how much the economy can take in terms of rate hikes. >> this is the other end of the spectrum. mr. bostic says he is comfortable with 75 basis point hike. he said the e