and the fed. the fed did it. they did. they a municipal liquidity facility and they really did they didn't actually end up lending to that many entities. they only lent to illinois and mta in new york. but the fact that they even offered it huge deal compared to what was previously thought possible. so so you write in the introduction that you do not. this is not a diatribe. this is not you're a ron paul in the fed. that's not where you're coming from, but you're also not somebody who would reflexively defend them by a long shot. explain kind of where you're coming at this from and what what your point of view is ultimately. yeah, i was trying to come at it like a journalist you know, i was trying to not have super strong opinions about where this should all end up. but i do think that, you know, as a journalist, part of your role is to say, here's what society should be talking about. here's where we haven't really paid enough attention. here's where we maybe aren't shining enough of a light. and like i said, in 2020, the

we begin with a big issue, waiting for the fed. >> the fed in their tightening campaigns -- >> widely expect they hike in july. >> hike right when he five basis points. >> inflation data coming down faster. >> no indication yet of greater market weakness. >> consumer is showing up. >> there has been welcome news for the fed as of late. >> the last inflation print was low. >> the economy will surprise people. >> the data is starting to show maybe we won't have that recession. >> what is the right inflation target for the world we're living in today? >> how high will they be willing to tolerate? >> at some point we think recession will come. katie: joining us is toni kroos tunzi and megan sweitzer joining me on a friday. must be my lucky weekend we are course meeting before the fed meeting next week. getting away from how many hikes are left, seems like july is baked in at this point. how long might this fed be on hold? tony: the view of ray cuts flies in the face of the legendary fed chair and his idea of keeping at it. the title of a book he had. chair powell over a year ago said one

let's start with fed minutes. it's interesting how divided policymakers were on the direction of rates, and how tenuous the agreement to pause in june was, given that it was framed as unanimous. it looks like the fomc reckons more tightening will be needed given the resilience of the economy. listen to it fed president john williams. >> we can take some time, and assess and collect more information and be able to act. knowing that we communicated through our projections that we don't think we're done based on what we know. lizzy: so jail, what stood out to you from these minutes? jill: i think you nailed it there. it's that idea of division within the fomc on what exactly to pause, went to hike again. you are right, jay powell framed this publicly as a unanimous decision to hold rates last month before revisiting this month. he has said multiple times that july would be a live meeting. the big takeaway is it seems almost certain we will see another interest rate hike this month. ultimately this speaks to how diffi

the fed enabled that. if the fed had not monetized all that debt, if the fed had not suppressed interest rates, the government couldn't have gotten away with all that deficit spending. they would have been forced to be fiscally responsible years ago, but because of the fed they remain reckless and irresponsible, and now we're sitting on a powder keg of debt that's going to exploit load at any -- explode at any moment. liz: is the treasury market, maybe the t-bills, the shorter term treasuries, are those still as attractive with a 5% coupon or whatever, you know, as you look at some of these? >> andy and then peterrer. >> i love t-bills at 5.5%. you know, rick reider's talking about buying commercial paper at 6.5%. look, you can't get a better deal than t-bills right now. yes, there are plenty of floaters, whatever, 9, what have you, but i'm not one of these people who believe that you should go out to 10 years right now at 3.85. i just like, you know, accruing 5.5% for t-bills, so i'm going to stay safe. i

it may take a while to get back to the fed's target. but the fed will remain strident as a result. i think they're going to get what they want and won't raise rates after today. >> trymeaning hawkish, mark. >> if i was them, i would talk tough, because you want to keep inflation expectations down to 2% if you do, it makes it easier to get actual inflation back in so they have every incentive to talk hawkishly but at the end of the day, the numbers suggest they won't need to raise rates after today >> what is the best case scenario in terms of somewhat happens today? what's interesting is looking at what happened since the june meeting and the various asset classes. the ten-year yield has gone up ten basis points, the two-year, up 40 points what are you expecting here? >> i think the fed will raise by 25 basis points and maintain a hawkish stance as mark pointed out, inflation is coming down gradually but what we have seen in the last few weeks is a sharp rise in inflation expectations. the data the fed looks at closely has gone from 2%, 2.25% to closer to 2.5%. so the rise in yield

from the fed point of view, they cannot wait for other people to act. they have been assigned at this responsibility to keep prices stable. they have a 2% inflation target. they are not going to be in a position to wait around for congress to act or for others to act. if you look at the maintenance over duties, you saw a lot of the discussion, maybe you can use fiscal policy, tax policy. that did not work terribly well. we are the ones who are going to deal with it, if congress wants to come in and cut spending and raise taxes, that is their prerogative. but the fed will not wait around for other people to take up arms against inflation. host: connecticut, good morning. caller: good morning, how are you? host: good, question or comment. caller: i have a comment. the way it is bringing down inflation right now, isn't it making the rich richer and the poor poorer? the other gentleman that called, he put it very intelligently. it seems like there is a more logical way to do it than the way jay powell is doing it. the banks are getting richer, the rich are

honestly fed looking at -- what is the fed looking at? chairman powell has stressed not just energy but the super court taking out a lot more factors. the market is having a hard time. chairman powell has been clear a few times, not a do not care about market that traders are looking at different things than i am. we have our mandate. we are trying to get inflation back to 2%, but the market is having a hard time. we will trade one way and then the next day we are all the way back. sometimes when the market reads chairman powell dovish, he later says i did not mean that. but people have to walk it back. dani: politics is one reporter in the crowd telling him with him what the market is doing and he reverses worse -- all it takes is one reporter maybe the ecb is a bit controversial but is there any truth to the idea that the ecb may also need to stop him especially the fed does? liz: the fed doing that may give them a bit of cover, but like the cfo from deutsche bank was saying, there is more of a chance the ecb does or than the that. but

welcome to bloomberg markets and happy fed day. dani: happy fed day.'m about to commit a cardinal television sin. i really think this is probably the least exciting fed meeting in two years. we know what they're going to do. they're going to hike 25 basis points. i guess that is what comes next, but i don't know, i can imagine this is anything shock and awe for these markets. >> i'm with you that the decision itself might not bring any fireworks, but i think the press conference could. the messaging from chairman powell is going to be incredibly important. trying to reflect consensus on the committee that may be starting to break down in some way between the hawks and the doves. i think it could be pretty interesting if not right at 2:00 p.m. >> and i will say the data certainly making things interesting. some data to break right now on new home sales. for june, coming in weaker than expected. 600 $97,000 is the annual rate for june home sales. the estimate was for $725,000. have we seen a peak in the housing market? that we serve -- that would certain

we will get a fed lockout period at the end of the week so brace yourself are more fed speak.peaking of the fed, there was comforting data that hit yesterday that allowed bonds and some risk assets to rally. you are looking at one year inflation expectations from the new york fed. this is a survey that is the white line. the blue line is cpi. this survey fell to an april 2021 low, just over 4%. the good news is it tends not only to track cpi, sometimes it leads the thing itself. how should we be set up tomorrow? for that, let's get to mark cranfield. how are you thinking about cpi data tomorrow? mark: if i was in the fed's position i would be very happy to see that chart and i would be hoping it does exactly as expected, that we get a slightly softer cpi number than the previous month, the general trend since the beginning of the year, continues on a downward path, relatively slow but still headed in the right direction from the fed when if you. if those things are achieved, we get a touch lower than expected in the markets will be happy because that's what they been pricing f

they are moving the fed way.there will be a press conference after every single meeting, which is something everybody had been asking of them. and the governor said that this will complement their existing communication style, so they will continue to do speeches and other things and the press conferences will be in addition to that. they released the quarterly statement four times a year before, and that will be released with the meeting statement on tuesday, instead of the following friday that they do right now. and the tightening of the announcement remains the same, 2:30 p.m.. those were the main takeaways. kathleen: it will be so great when they do a press conference after. we will get so much more insight for the rba governor. speaking of the current rba governor phil lowe, when i touched her treasure chalmers at the imf spring meeting, he sounded so positive on phil lowe. is it really going to be the case that they figure that >lowe has done his job and it is time to move on? do they have to make it clear

the fed is watching housing prices closely with the dallas fed president warning that a rebound in housingrices would pose an upside risk to inflation down the road. here to discuss is kevin thrope with cushman & wakefield. thank you for joining us. if you take a look at the risks to inflation and the path the fed is on, do you think they will need a hike above and beyond what we might see today? kevin: i do not think so. i think this is pretty baked in, the fomc will follow through as expected. i think that might be the last hike. the fed has more than doubled the long run equilibrium rate, i think sufficient enough to slow the economy and bring inflation in. we are seeing good progress in inflation. stickier components, core cpi turning in the right direction. keep your eye on the employment cost index coming out on friday, it will be interesting on wage growth. commercial real estate specifically, we are looking for signals. for your viewers, it is worth noting that historically as you near the point where the fed is going to make this first move down, which we think will be early next

cameron, was this the last move by the fed, the last hike? >> as you heard from powell, it is still very data dependent which means if we get a hot inflation print some time in the next couple of months, it may not be the last hike but if the current trajectory in inflation continues, then, yes, it is the last hike. we don't think that the fed wants to take a victory lap on inflation just yet as steve liesman talked a bit today they've been so burned by calling disinflation too soon which means this will remain a market that's hypersensitive to incoming inflation data and probably hypersensitive to good data coming in from a growth perspective, we could still be in this good news for the economy is bad news for markets. >> well, what happens now to the rally? the market certainly doesn't seem to be upset by what it heard today, either the bond market and the stock market might suggest that this was the last one >> yeah, and what we've seen this year the fed hasn't mattered for markets really at all. we've seen the pricing for the terminal rat

the idea that the market, the fed says maybe one left in july or maybe there is more to go as the fedat history, there are five instances of a good pause and 85, 95, 97, 2006 and 2018. those are where the fed said we have done enough to fight inflation at the time. but the data at those instances was a complete inverse of today. the yield curve was positively sloping, credit conditions were loosening, inflation was much lower than today and leading economic indicators were accelerating, not decelerating. it continues to be difficult to stick to this slowing but the rationale we are seeing the support it. lisa a: what would it take to change the story and the thesis at a time when the economy seems to have ongoing strength that has defied all expectations? dan: the economy is flowing. last year, gdp was 3.5 to 2.5 but now it's closer to 1.5 or two. you would need to see the economy re-accelerate and see the two times earnings rates fixtures being more probable next year. amid that, a lot of people think we will have a reading celebration or ramp up -- a re-acceleration or ramp up going

what will the fed do at their next meeting hike, cut, or pause?ead to @cnbcclosingbell >>> we have about 43 minutes left in the trading day. let's get a look at some top stocks to watch. kristina partsinevelos with that >> let's talk about shares of riot platforms they're surging to new 52-week high today after releasing its production numbers from last month. the crypto mining platform saw an increase in bitcoin production last month. shares are up almost 13% right now. the stock really has seen just this massive -- look at this -- this massive run-up this year as shares are up, what, 350% just in 2023. there's that a.i now, let's switch gears and talk about the retail space levi strauss is falling after the company slashed its profit outlook for the rest of the year, driven by a steep drop in wholesale revenues kontoor brands, down almost 8% it's falling in sympathy you can see both levi strauss down, kontoor, almost 8% do you have wrangler's >> not in a long time. maybe when i was -- mom was shopping in the children's section for me >> you're l

look at what the fed said in june. despite the staffed forecasting a recession later this year, the median dot was for 1% growth in the economy. it looks like we will achieve that in the first half of the year. stagnation is coming in the second half. matt: what do you think caused this in the first half? everyone at the beginning of the year thought the dollar was going to continue to drop after it reached a peak on the bloomberg dollar index. why has it held in this range so firmly? marc: a lot of people were expecting the dollar to continue to climb. the market had to reassess the strength of the economy and the persistence of inflation, the market was pricing in a fed cut. that is what helped the dollar. just today, i think you had it on the wire that the san francisco fed president who is seen as a dove came out and endorsed, saying she things a couple more hikes are necessary. matt: how important is monetary policy against the backdrop? we focus so much on the fed, because this is the horse race that we can see o

first let's get over to the reaction to the fed.e it away. >> i think at this point, investors pretty much knew the fed hike today was going to be baked in. the question now becomes what happens in september. powell wasn't ready to be pinned down on whether he would see another rate increase at that time. the feds dot plot indicated there would be one more before the end of 2030 -- 2023 but now he's saying a lot of this is data dependent. as much as we can divine out of what powell was saying at today's meeting, it's really going to be up to a lot of the data that comes out tomorrow and over the next few weeks, looking at jobs data to see what exactly happens by the time we get to september. so we will get a better idea of where we are in the tightening cycle and when it is going to end. lizzy: we've got durable goods, gdp out today, but does it pale in comparison to the jobs and inflation data we will get later? >> i think the consumption numbers will be important for us to look at. i do think from where the fed is concerned, they

as for the fed, that's interesting. it shows you what the fed does is the only thing that matters. alex was saying we don't need to worry about the ecb because it's following the fed. the bank of england is following the fed. the number tomorrow will reset everything. alix: they aren't going to say they are following, but nonetheless if they follow is that 6% for the fed? guest: all of the economists are not really forecasting 6%. a lot are saying maybe one more, maybe two more. like we are saying, it's all data dependent. if we get to the end of the year and we are at 5.5% in this world we are seeing with strong labor markets, sticky inflation that hasn't changed, how can you not think they could do more? i do think the fed is going by the data. we had lori logan out today saying there's more to be done. a lot of people are saying the market searching for terminal. where is the terminal? it's a moving target for sure. who knows what happens. guy: there's a number of dots that are north of six. why do we keep underestimating it? why have the markets been so bad and so behind the cu

the fed decision due out at 2:00 p.m. followed by jay powell's news conference at 2:30 p.m the markets are all but sure they're going to raise the lending rate to highest level in 22 years one month after hitting pause, now showing a 99% chance of an 11th rate increase since the campaign began last year joining me now is william lee. chi economist at the milken institute. bill. >> good morning, frank. >> it's telegraphed rate hike today and also another one later this year. do you believe as we've seen in previous decisions that a hawkish tone from jay powell will lead to a late-day selloff? >> it's often the case the markets just don't believe the fed when they tell everyone we're not done raising rates because inflation is not down at 2% and it's not securely on its way to 2%. again, every time jay powell comes on, markets say, okay, this is it, he's going to be hinting at some sort of a pause. i think markets are yet to be convinced. >> clearly we're continuing see a rally after inflation -- that's one of the things th

i had one sources say for this message that the fed is delivering in the minutes and the fed speak, heould expect tech stocks to do worse. we have the nasdaq 100 up about 40% year to date and he said the market is either not listening to the fed or does not believe that we will get to more rate hikes. if on the other hand betting against tech this year has not worked. i have been hearing the same message over and over again. these valuations are not going to jive with the rate hikes, they cannot handle tightening and we just have not seen the equity market cracked under the pressures of monetary tightening. haidi: we are not seeing many bets against the year of the bond in light of those minutes. >> we did not see much reaction to the minutes from the bond market when you look at the short end of the curve. the two-year was flat after those minutes suggesting that the bond market was already expecting more rate hikes in the message that was delivered in the dot plot. we saw a yield curve steepening with the longer end of the treasury curve moving up higher and the two-year pretty much

how high will the fed have to go? have to go, are these normal meetings forward or the people that worship your financial economics, do they have to amend every discussion as they get out to the november 1 meeting? >> they've got to try to see if there are structural changes in the economy. i think there have been at least some changes whether they are permanent, structural or not we are not sure. probably something structural for the labor market. we see lower labor force participation in some say there's no way i'm going back to labor market. so many people didn't make it through covid and i want to see my kids and grandkids. we have also seen with the low interest trades during the pandemic and coming out of it that everybody refinanced. normally, you have the transmit -- transition recognition of the rates that so many people refinanced to very low fixed 30 year mortgages, it doesn't matter as much of the economy that interest rates are going up because people's income is not being affected bike that -- by that or

perhaps the fed signal we are getting is that we are nearing the end of fed rake -- fed rate hikes.th but after that, the situation, the move from traders is getting less clear in the swaps market showing only a one in three chance of a 25 basis point hike at the upcoming meeting after the july 1. essentially, the focus from investors is really moving into the bond space and that retreat, that repricing we continue to see in bonds really being led by the short end of the curve during moves in treasury means a weaker dollar complex. we are seeing the dollar really sliding in the session. asian effects really benefiting. we see the korean won advancing as much as 1% against the dollar so far in the session. weaker dollar, it also has implications for the commodity space. price in dollars is a beneficiary. we are seeing metals moving higher. perhaps a little bit supportive by those signals we are starting to see in china, that they are serious about supporting the private sector, more stimulus coming through from the likes of the property sector. materials gaining in the session is als

fed speak, parade of speakers, the fed vice chair at 10:00 a.m., the san francisco fed mary daly, cleveland, and the atlanta fed president following. at 3:00 p.m., credit card data -- how much are people just spending on debt, on leverage? the fed releases the latest consumer credit survey for the month of may. the previous one showed an increase far beyond what people expected. this is a key question to me, especially as i look at my own circumstances. in terms of, you know -- you go on these vacations and then you look at your bill, and you go, oh, my goodness. anything, at least i get a lot of points. pretty intense. jonathan: i know, i know. tk has been saving not contributing to the u.s. economy. tom: spread across 14 hours of time zones, the keene family. the far side of the world. at camp -- campus the thing that kills you. jonathan: i did not have camp as a kid, was not a thing. we had a bicycle and a football, and you are left to make a summer of it. tom: if you are big spenders like me, i got $10, which went a long way for mars bars. now i am getting chinese takeout for 16? jonath

>> the fed is determined to go a little bit further. >> the fed still thinks they haven't done quite enough. >> the idea that they will be cutting soon i think is a fools errand. >> they have to cut pretty aggressively. >> you cannot get in the way right now of the soft landing narrative. >> we are looking better in terms of a soft landing. >> he could be the wizard of the economy and wall street if he can soft land this. >> the jury stay out of whether the fed is done or not. katie: joining us now are our two guests. great to have you both with us this week. we've seen one of the most aggressive rate hiking campaigns in modern history. is july truly the end of the road? >> i think it is. i'm not going to be very original and say anything different. at this point, this is the insurance hike and that's the way i look at it. i think that september will be a lot harder for them to make the case for a hike. we are already seeing inflation come down pretty decently. the inflation data we got, the way i look at it, was not so much a surprise to the downside, it was more of a relief that in

so that's offsetting what the fed is doing to some degree. in the press conference i'm going to be interested to hear what he says about where we are with financial conditions. that will be interesting to see how he answers that. overall i think the statement was in line, the economy is doing fine at 2.4% in gdp, jobs strong, wages and inflation still too elevated we'll have to see what they say. but i you this they stated the obvious in the press release. >> rick santelli, let's come back to you, if you other there, with reaction. you have an inverted yield curve some concerns about a slowing economy. wrap it up for us. >> i think we are not up 40 basis points since the june meeting, up half that, 20. basically at 469 we're at 489. i think if i had to wrap this up, the inverted yield curve is sticky i agree we need to steepen it. deinvert it. but my feeling is the deinversion is going to be by short rates moving lower consider this, we move 20 basis points roughly since last meeting, about 10 basis points in tens. but the stock market has zo

how many more does the fed need to see?last year, they wanted a string of lower ratings. this will not do it. my guess is we see possibly .1 on the core coming up in the august report. at that point, they will have three readings .2 or possibly below, which is why i think the september hike is one i think they can afford to skip again. alix: how much of that will be housing? omair: housing is contributing less in the last three months of prints than the back half of last year. this was less about shelter inflation then it was about broad-based disinflation. super core excluding housing was zero today. it was .2 last month. .1 the month before. my suspicion is when cleveland fed data is released shortly, that number will be .2. the atlanta fed's sticky index will probably be flat. this is more broad-based. services inflation is moderating at the rate the fed wants to see. guy: the bank of canada will take until '25, six months longer than anticipated to get inflation back onto target. when you think the fed will get inflatio

progressive the fed needs to be. sonali: joining us is gregory peters and deborah cunningham. we are back down to 492 or so. if you take a look at what the market is telling you, what is the discrepancy between the data we see today and the possibility inflation could come in hot next week? greg: i think the market has been wrong for the past few years. the markets are starting to slowly recognize the fed it needs what they say. it will be an uneven, volatile path, but you are seeing repricing in the front and that makes more sense to us. if you go back to march during the banking, we were repricing cuts into this year and that is slowly being taken out of the market and that makes sense. sonali: when you look at the move backward, does it make sense on the heels of this jobs report? deborah: we should listen to the fed more and i agree to the extent the labor market is starting to pullback. it is just beginning the process. what we have seen even with the report today when you take the revision into account, it is a

the fed did. we had interest rates moved to zero rapidly with lots of support through the balance sheet and for guidance. the fiscal agents also gave lots of support to the economy. we were fighting a pandemic and the desire i think of all policymakers was to not let something that nobody had created, nobody had done this to themselves, do rail lives and livelihoods for long periods of time. there is are pouring and resources to support -- to get people to the pandemic. but that support, coupled the fact for many people, they're just stuck at home, can't do anything so you start saving money, saving money accidentally because you can't use the money. the job market for many people remained strong. we know if the people who got laid off enmass that were given support, but if you were a tech worker, were living well. you're working at home, don't pay commuting. your salaries are going up. lots of demand for your services. that is money in people's pockets. you get stacking up of lots of support for

tom: i was thinking about you as a fed president or fed governor.ee claudia at the building around the table? lisa: i think she is close. tom: michelle will get her starbucks. the clarity of the dissent at the fed. we note there would be a visible sign if you were there. what is the character of our non-descent descent at the fred? claudia: it is unfortunate that you have straight-line votes and then you get to see your economic projections that there is disagreement. i don't know why they are shy about saying there are a lot of moving pieces here. they are already somebody and some of these people have been opening for a pause. there have been some fed officials openly going forward. how do you get a pause out of that? you think you're going to do 25 basis points more twice? why now? everything was puzzling. tom: claudia, thank you. graduations on the impact she is having on our slowdown, stagnation, recession debate. amazing. lisa: we don't even know where we are and that is the takeaway we keep getting from pushing the recession call. it is hard

that reinforces the case for higher fed rates for longer, which dallas fed president lorie logan made yesterday. markets fully pricing a quarter-point fed hike this month. a growing chance of another before the end of the year. as a result, treasury yields of sorts the two-year touching a 16-your high. that pulled european yields higher as well, you had the s&p closing down 0.8%. the risk off sentiment continued in asia. investors watching for decisions on china stimulus, as well as janet yellen's visit to beijing. meetings already underway this morning. we have s&p futures on the board for you, not looking like the rosy picture today ahead of the u.s. jobs report later. for the reverberations into asian markets, let's get to bloomberg's yousef gamal el-din. yousef: it is equities and bonds because the fixed income dislocations are being felt all over asia and around the world. in australian government bond yields we're seeing levels we haven't seen in about 10 years, since 2014, that raises a bigger question as to what will happen with any bond bulls on a day like today. they are bas

a really good day for the fed. if you look at core inflation, still running pretty hot, 4.1% annual lized over the last quarter. so, people tend to get really bulled up. it's an interesting pattern. when the fed is done, the fed will announce it, obviously, but the market gets ahead of it, you see the enormous move in treasuries we saw a bit of that today i think it's a little early, frankly. >> i think i asked everybody this question when i get a chance to interview, you know, strategists like yourself, michael. do you think the fed sees this reaction in the markets and think, you know, this market needs a talking to and when they have that press conference, you know, in a couple weeks, they're going to be extra hawkish to convey to the markets that every meeting is, in fact, live, and you cannot assume that the door is closed at this point because the markets are acting like the door is closed, they're done >> markets are acting like it's 5:00 somewhere, for sure they're having a good old time and i think for the

fed. with the supervisory activities that those individuals do report up to the board of governors. the reason you want that to be these case is because you want supervision to be executed homogeneously, similarly across the country. you want a bank in north dakota have the same expense as a bank in new york a bank in florida, bankingif texas or bank in california you do not want variation depending upon which regional fed you are at or who is the president. presidents play an important role in the following way. the most important thing to take away is the support role. my job is to support the supervision the vice chair of supervision has set out. so how do i do that question how do all regional fed presidents do that? we staff the bank with people who can do the job. and do the job well. we ensure they are being the best in public service for doing what is required of them as supervisors we are interacting on a regular basis with the board because the board oversees these teams. when ga

asian stocks fall as investors reduce risk ahead of the fed rate decision.&p 500 is 5% off the all-time high. earnings season is in full swing as alpha new poster revenue beat while microsoft shares cloud sales. lvmh loses revenue from the u.s. european banks in focus as allison rose resigns following a political controversy. deutsche bank posts better than expected fixed sales and trading revenue for the second quarter. our interview with the ceo is coming up, next. welcome to fed day. the 25 basis point hike we are expecting is pretty much nailed on. all is on the press conference tonight and the path for rates. the yield curve is pricing another chance of a 50-50 hike after today's meeting, which raises the question, is this the pricing jay powell wants to see? if you look at the two day chart for u.s. stocks, they were in the green yesterday for a third straight session. you also have asian stocks looking flat at the moment. the s&p 500 closing at its highest since april, 2022. big tech leading equity gains. a lot of earnings this morning, we had deutsch

, where the fed is, where the market thinks the fed is, 85% probability of a rate hike in july but only about 35 or so when it comes to that next hike in november so, the market's onboard right now with the issue there's the chart right there, 35 for the november rate hike. markets onboard with that first hike second hike, they are kind of flirting with, but there's time to figure that out and obviously some data dependence, i think a lot of members of the fed want to do that second hike, but they'll be guided by the data. melissa? >> i'm going to ask you the same question that i asked this morning, the fed really wants to get to 2% and they're noting all the different things about the economy that remain strong, it seems like there's a long road ahead. it's not just another 25 basis points and poof, you're done i mean, housing may have bottomed, that's great, but the housing market really hasn't taken much of a stumble, if you look at the recent data and how home builders are doing. >> that's right. even the current level of home building at 1.3, 1.4 million, we've seen lower rates tha

i think the fed will come across as a dovish.ngland will still be quite hawkish, and the ecb will be in the middle and terms of 40 policy guidance. >> the fed wanted done or more to come is a question we keep leaning on? >> if i go to your framing, which is to adopt excessive data dependency, which is where the fed is today, and if i stick to a 2% inflation target, and they will keep open the possibility of a september hike. if i go to a different framing, which is a much longer term framing that looks at how the u.s. economy functions, and it should be one and done. the trouble is we have all been pushed into this short term framing where it is almost absurd that we talk about data dependency with policies that act with longing variable lag. >> we are long and variable lag, but what we are is trying to measure some form of algebraic plug-ins that lead us to a phrase restrictive, or is dominic says super restrictive. are we super restrictive right now? >> we are restrictive right now, we are not super restrictive. it brings you b

the feds are getting ready to roll out a fed coin, a digital coin. this is not no conspiracy theory. every last one of us calling today will be crying on your knees praying to the good lord. this coin is going to take away our freedoms and it is going to be sad. joe biden, trump, there is no physical man going to save us from the chaos that is coming. i am glad you are addressing the situation about inflation. i am 69 years old, i have seen the value of the dollars evaluated and the dollar has collapsed. after the fed coin is rolled

he has had a lot of influence at the fed, and it will be a big loss for the fed, but whether it affects policy right now, chair powell has firm control on the committee, there are very few dissents, and there is no reason to believe this will be any kind of big shift in policy, but may be at the margin it could have some effect. kathleen: steve matthews has been covering jim bullard for many years. let's bring in jeff lacker, he served as president of the richmond fed from 2004 until 2017. you overlap over a long time with jim bullard, because jim took his seat as head of the st. louis fed in 2008. when jim first joined, he was this quiet kind of sitting back, understated guy. how did he evolve over the years? what are some of your best memories of jim bullard? >> first of all, i met jim bullard in 1990 my first year in the federal reserve system and his first year in the federal reserve system as well. i admire him greatly. he is an excellent, outstanding economist and has been an outstanding policymaker. the watchwords for bullard were rigor and candor. as he got the hang of going to

there is a lot that can happen but i am sticking with the fed in view. -- the fed view. guy: is the shock thus far that we have not had a shot? central bank policy seems to be working with an incredible lack. the transmission mechanism is not working in a way it would be rated in some ways, the surprises that we have not had an incredible hit. his of the shock still to come from the rate rises that we have already had. we are obsessing about how high we go and how long we stand there -- stay there, but shouldn't we be expecting how long this will happen for? sofia: trying to tell the market to focus on a three year view versus a two day view. you are right. it is becoming one of my favorite subjects and is a severe problem. because of the quirky composition in the mortgage market. i was talking to -- nour before the show and we are getting a since the focus is moving more toward what happens after we have gone through this and nation shock. then, will we the economic shocks you are talking about? now we are in transition period where the market is not sure whether we are

reacting to the fed.that was the former richmond friend -- fed president joining us as well as kathleen hays. this is the picture when it comes to australian futures as well as the aussie dollar. we are seeing flat trading when it comes to sydney futures ahead of the cash open. not much of a move. this as we had seen a time of outperformance when it comes to the aussie dollar so much of that has been following on the proxy trade for china. stimulus optimism and perhaps deciding to be fully priced in as it were. we are also watching the money sector today as well as energy. we were just talking about gasoline trading at nine month high. kiwi stocks down .2%. still ahead are exclusive conversation with an executive vice president of samsung about how the smartphone maker is countering sluggish market as it unveils new devices. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> samsung is introducing the fifth generation of its affordable -- foldable smartphone. the executive vice president and head of customer experience told bloombe

a lot of fed officials have said we are feeling comfortable with where we are at, some fed officials want to push us past the 5.5 percentage point and get us closer to 6%. in general, a lot of the effects of higher interest rates have been moving their way through the economy over the last several months. consumers will probably see higher interest rates on various types of loans, like mortgages and credit card payments. you might already be experiencing that. other ways will be harder for regular consumers to gauge. for example, big companies will probably be borrowing less money as interest rates get higher. that might translate down the line to fewer opportunities or smaller pools of investment. in general, with rates already being so elevated, i think today's hike would just be a little on top, rather than a significant event. host: testing your historical knowledge, i am curious -- he said between five point 25% and 5.5% could be the interest rate after this week. people like me who are not experts, we do not know how that compares. ? ? is that really high historically is this k

on the u.s., likely to keep the fed on track to raise rates. this is how lack rocks rick rieder interpreted it. rick: it is a solid report, softer than the headline, but you are operating a 3.6% employment rate. data continues to show labor is in good shape. it was encouraging. you are talking about a lot of jobs open. i think you have to parse it finally to say it is solid. jon: let's get more perspective. a great round table, liz mccormick and mike mckee. start with the more specifics. we heard the reaction but what were some takeaways as you look deeper into this jobs report. mike: basis for everyone examining it is what is the fed going to do with it? 209,000 is still more than twice what you need in terms of job creation to absorb the new interest to the labor force. it is a strong number but maybe we got off track yesterday, but as rick rieder wasn't noting, the unemployment rate goes down to 3.6% in the fed is forecasting we will be at 4.1%. more jobs created in the household survey and more jobs -- fewer jobs lost. you are seeing streng

that is part of the mandate for the fed. if it is taking that box, it is not taking the inflation box. if it is ticking one box but the other boxes not ticked-- edward: it seems like a lot for july, spot on. in september, it seems likely they will go in that direction. we are not slowing enough the fed to feel comfortable that given where inflation is, they can stop the rate hike trend. you will get 25 basis points, another 25, and then the question comes how long they can hold at that level, given the weakening we see happening, and might precipitate a recession? mike: when you ask about full employment for the fed over the past couple of years, it became not full employment just in terms of the number, but full employment for everybody. reaching down into minority groups, the less educated, and get everybody a job. you look at what has happened the last couple of months, if you saw what happens today since april, we have seen black unemployment rise to 6%, hispanic unemployment rise, while white unemployment continues to g

it is more like janet yellen fed for ben bernanke fed.or them to do what they did, wait for inflation to be really underway than start hiking interest rates. i do not expect radical change but going back to the old model. lisa: is it the old model meaning 10 years ago or the old model 40 years ago? that is different. that is the debate we have been hearing about. how will we look back at this moment in history? was it a seachange that ushered in a new era of high inflation or a pandemic induced blip that will go back to what we were seeing five years ago? ethan: the fed has demonstrated they learned a lesson. they started very late. you will hear that from bill dudley today. and they started too late. and than they did incredibly aggressive catching up. and that was a signal to me that they understood they made a mistake. you do not want to be going 75 basis points. it's dangerous, normally. but if you are way behind the curve, you catch up. i do not agree with people who say they will compromise on their inflation target. at the press co

the hawkish fed also weighs of the japanese fed.he boj was expecting a moderate response to the yield curve control. so they could be keeping a lid on the losses. we are still at the 144 level. haidi: wti is seeing some slight gains after saudi arabia lifted prices for its flagship arab light crude to all regions, signaling confidence in market demand. this has caused tightening of expectations from buyers return to the atlantic basin and tightening the brand and u.s. crude markets. wti is 10% lower this year, china's lackluster economic recovery be one of the key reasons on the demand side. >> china growth is healthy. we are monitoring the market and we will take whatever decision. i am cautiously optimistic about the second half of the year. shery: coming up, sega withholding its biggest franchises from third-party blockchain giving projects, as the crypto winter persists. our exclusive interview with the co-ceos later this hour. but first, pepper international tells us where the global tightening cycle could be doing more harm th

fed funds is about -- above 5.2.e and a wednesday, signaling a pause at the next meeting that when they were talking about what they might do in june, the baseline is interesting because they see rate cuts starting in the second quarter of next year. there is risk, what if el niÑo is hot? they look for the fed to signal that but the sense that they will open the door may be wider too, we have to see what happens at the meeting. that will come from jay powell's address. shery: we will get more about how extreme weather is affecting inflation. kathleen hayes is with us and citigroup says the slump in investment banking revenue is beginning to ease. we were told about the outlook for the banks trading operations. >> trading businesses are still good. if you compare industry revenues to what they were in 2020 or 2019, the numbers are higher. it is not bad. they look worse when you compare them to the past two years. they are still healthy. what drove the health is still around. we still have uncertainty about the economi

they are exciting the feds to start -- fed to start cutting rates this year.t seems a little optimistic. earnings growth has been better than what people were expecting because the economy has been stronger than people expected. we think that a lot of that is justified. we also think that over the last couple of months, s&p's are up almost 10%. the market is due for a breather here. alix: cyclicals have started to perform. you mentioned small caps go with that momentum, based on your tactical view over the next year. joe: i think it makes sense to have exposure there. when we look back over the past 12 months, we have had our earnings recession. that is when we had the recession. the way we look at it is it is easier when we get to the back half of this year and the early part of next year. earnings are going to pick up. there will be a disconnect between earnings accelerating and the economy slowing. i think that will lead to having some cyclical exposure, especially in the later cycle. guy: this is the bit i am trying to get my arms around and get an underst

jon: we are just a few minutes away from the minute. -- the fed minutes.t to describe it. matt: don't want to get it wrong. [laughter] jon: can we settle on hawkish for now? let's ask alexandra barrage, former executive at davis rights will leave it to you on the language but i'm most curious about what you will be looking for in these minutes. alexandra: first, thanks so much for having me on. as we saw in june, we saw a pause in rate hikes in part because i think the fed wanted more data on the impact of its monetary tightening policy with or data across a longer period.. based on recent statements from chair powell we should expect rate hikes likely across the year with four more meetings where that could occur. as for the minutes from the past june meeting, we could expect a few points of focus from the fed. the first is just understanding they have a dual mandate. that's the mandate of controlling inflation and prices as well as some orting maximum ointment. along the lines of inflation, we are not close to the 2% inflation goal the fed is committed t