so, if the fed needs -- the fed will do what it needs to do as an institution, and i'm sure that it willwe going to get more than eight minutes from mr. powell next week at jackson hole? >> well, i'm certainly not talking to him about his speech. i don't know look, i was at jackson hole last year i thought it was a very effective eight minutes. it was very clearly in his voice, and so i'm looking forward to seeing what he has to say. >> you'll be there again, i suspect? >> no, no, i'm going to be with my family in some well deserved vacation, so i will not be in jackson hole >> you deserve it. i appreciate it nonetheless. we'll talk to you in the weeks ahead, i'm sure. mr. clarida, thank you so much rich clarida, former fed vice chair joining us >>> we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos standing by with that >> not even 24 hours after going public and shares of vinfast are plunging double digits you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match ins

the final storm clouds speaking of the fed, is the potential the fed accelerates quantitative tighteningl of that speaks to the potential for yields to go higher, in particular at the long end. at the short end, yields have gone very high but there is an acknowledgment that the fed will not go much higher, so there is not much of a driver for short end yields to go up further. neither is there impetus to come down. interesting, when rates markets are still betting on fairly strong rate cuts in 2024. dani: starting the first few months of next year, those cuts are priced in. when we talk about a financial accident that could potentially derail the fed. is there a potential that country garden could be it? or if not it, maybe the property sector in china, is it fair that this is a global concern? garfield: so far, i haven't seen a lot of people saying that could really be the case. although there is a lot of concern about country garden. for one thing, it is evoking memories of evergrande which we all remember as a major catastrophe in the chinese property sector. that catastrophe really h

is that the fed doing too much, or doing little?k: the tough stayed as they are worried about both. they have to bounce two things they have never had to bounce before. as an institution. one is you have an inflation problem not going away anytime soon. whether it is core inflation or headline inflation, there is still risk to the outside. at the same time, you have a much more financial lies and that the auto be that you did not have back in 70's and a the last time you had a real inflation problem. they are worried about over tightening and under tightening given the competing risks which makes the fed job and also the job of us trying to gauge what the fed do. you see this reflected in a rising rainfall -- a rising rate fall. this also makes me more worried about this sort of narrative that the risk-reward is good for buying donation -- find teresa right now. there is not enough people focusing on, what if there is risk on both sides? katie: this is exactly where i wanted to go. that, use -- matthew, i am looking over your notes.

the outlook for fed rate hikes increased. the probabilities of a november increase passed the 50% mark, stand at 56% now. powell mentioned several factors or scenarios that could lead to additional highs. economic growth running higher than expected. inflation down, and the labor market remaining too tight. three scenarios he suggested could lead to higher rates. powell made clear no decision has been made just yet. there were a few remarks, not many, including that payroll growth lagged and rate hikes could hit the economy. but overall message was a fed chair skeptical that maybe enough had been done to bring down inflation and willing to give the economy some time, but kind of maybe a little if si to hike again if inflation does not cooperate. >> let me start off our q&a segment. what are the data on which the fed will be most dependent in. >> start with inflation, the pce number, which we're going to get next week i'd be looking at the growth numbers as well, the payroll numbers to see if there's that loosening up. i think

take, for instance, the atlanta fed.ht now they're saying the third quarter -- third quarter or gdp is 5.9%. does anyone out there the believe that? the recent retail sales report, remember that one? coming in the much better than expected, the highest level in five months. so this week we a hear from the retailers. in five days they have been destroy. look at those moves. i mean, here's the thing, almost all of them said that weakness accelerated into the month of july. now, we're also hearing about the sort of yolo-driven travel demand, airline travel back online, you see the two lines, 2019, 2023. we're not much above it, and more recently, the cpi number said the airline tickets have plunged, the prices have plunged. that doesn't make sense. and what really doesn't make sense, airline stocks are moving down so fast they were airplanes, oxygen masks would have been deploy already because of loss of cabin pressure. so with that in mind, we continue to ask the most essential question for investors today, soft landing, h

how does that influence fed policy? ira: the fed will worry about it.nd have higher yield in the 10 year sector saying where companies are financed, how does that affect investment and the like, as long as the economy is strong, the fed will look past that and not worry about it. if the economy gets really weak and you need more investment and it incentivizes investment, cutting interest rates, and doing another bond buying program, i do not think they will have. a lot of the struggles with the yield curve control is a joke relative to what the fed is trying to do. kailey: ira jersey and michael mckee. thank you both for joining us. we will have more on the jobs data and what it means for the fed coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ at cdw, we get the importance of clear communication. and when your teams are spread out, that's not always easy. our experts can help by implementing poly audio and video solutions to keep you connected. from headsets to collaboration tools, poly solutions offer simple setup and eliminate distracting background noise, so the peo

the markets are little freaked out by the fed.lieve the fed is done, that they are pausing and it will be higher for longer. why pausing? if you look at the tightening, if you look at the bank crisis, if you look at the downgrades, this suggests a pause. higher for longer means we still of inflation well above 2%. the last thing is powell is a huge history buff of the fed and he wants to avoid mistakes. he always talks about the 70's. all of this is causing confusion in the markets. paul: you talked about the three c's amended to go. can we add another see for the consumer which is very resilient. to talk about potentially avoiding a recession. do markets have to forget this idea of rate cuts? it is seeming rather fanciful. >> the consumer is in good shape right now. we are starting to see some cracks, increasing usage of credit card. this is a stress on the consumer. whether we have a mild recession or not, we think we are in what is called a rolling recession. the consumer is starting to weaken a bit whereas other parts are star

it is fshd raising interest rates you say fed needs to stop adam we are expecting fed to continue is it going to be the nail in the coffin in terms of a recession. adam: if you look at fed funds futures there is a market for what people think fed is doing in the future. they are fed fund futures saying no more rate hikes this year we will get a rate decrease going out into march, i don't necessarily need a derive but i would be happy if they fixed interest rates because if investor i know what discount rates are for the future if a cfo know what capex expenditures will be financing in future my question to you does fed do nothing here just sit tight does that make sense? >> well, i agree with futures market thank you for bringing that out not a lot of people know that hiding in plain sight for sure fed is done raising rates, i understand the value, of fixing knowing what rates are going to be if they fix rates at this high level, highest in 22 years the fed itself describes restrictive they are fixing them too high at level designed to lower inflation, a little more than a year cpi h

when fed is go done a food job i hate to criticize fed credit for anything they kept longer term inflationin check, at the end of the day we are 4.1% on that 10-year treasury but if it starts to get up 4 1/2%, 5%, i think you do have a problem, and of that itself where the fed is going to be between a rock and a hard place i think conditions are tight enough we just talked about how banks right now when it comes to lending starten to tighten you you see in surveys a credit downgrades right now, i do think it is meeting do i t in september, the smart move here is look they've kind of won here right we are in a situation may not have recession, and tighten interest rates you know policy a lot of monetary policy a lot if they back off here give us more normal rates especially comes mortgages, companiesing boring going into next year they are going to win looks like fed don't screw it up. maria: they are not winning on price of oil john catsimatidis, let's get into energy for a moment here, because the administration and specifically the energy secretary jennifer granholm has talked about need

on the back of the fed chair's chief, let's get to steve liesman with cleveland fed president lorettater. >> here in jackson hole with a person we've had on quite a bit. carl just refers to you as mester. loretta mester, cleveland fed president. let me ask you this -- we talked back in the spring or something like that. how much has your view changed in terms of the outlook? as i recall, you had two hikes built in. still two? >> so, the june sep. >> summary of economic projections. >> of course, we've had two of them. >> hold on, president mester. looks like fed chair powell is taking a walk with christine lagarde and new bank president of japan, whose name escapes me. i can't -- i knew it but forgot it. there's jay powell with lagarde. maybe it's an opportunity to talk about what's happening in europe, too, which is -- they're sort of in a no forward guidance. everybody is coming to the end of the rate hikes, loretta. >> we're mirroring -- we've talked about this before, getting close to where we need to be, but as chair powell said in his remarks this morning, we have to be very dil

that will add to what the fed is doing and we've got a significant budget deficit. market will be struggling to digest supplies so from the yield curve position standpoint, we will see the seesaw between bear flattening at like today and steepening episodes as we saw earlier in the month. sonali: another view was brought out by pimco. they wrote that recent data would suggest the consumer and the economy can remain surprisingly higher but it means it's not unthinkable to envision the fed not staying -- not only staying on hold announcing a further rate hike next year, do you buy that? >> i think it's possible. there is a good chance in the first quarter that the fed might decide that more work to just a more work needs to be done. maybe they deliver one or two more hikes by the end of this year but it's too early to say with the first quarter looks like. as we get through the first quarter of next year, we are more likely to see the labor market data rolling over and that will probably be a place where the fed decides to stand down. sonali: there was a conversation

. >> what is the fed ultimately looking for? >> they are likely to take a look at why demand imbalances. >> labor markets will decide how much they need to adjust the over night fed funds rate. >> the fomc participants should be looking at the last three months worth of data. >> the fed has done so much already in terms of delivering those hikes. >> these are not going to be near term policy decisions of what they need with rates next month. >> rate hikes at the september meeting. >> maybe the fed doesn't need to hike. >> we are not certain blessed hike is behind us. >> the fed will keep rates higher for longer. >> the fed will have to be more aggressive, raising rates higher in keeping rates higher for longer. katie: joining us now is michael and mark. since you are sitting next to me, i will start with you. we will get to jackson hole but let's start with the price action. it has been intense to say the least. when you think about the sell off we've seen in 10 year and 30 year treasuries, what would you say is the key factor d

the fed likely to pause. importantly it is still traders coming to that realization that a cut is not on the horizon anytime soon. the biggest reaction has been in the japanese yen. you can take a look at that, close to the 145 level -- 146 of course is the line marked officially from the boj. still at a point now that sees jawboning from japanese officials. the yen at a level we haven't seen since 2008. the big focus in asian markets on earnings it still a butane john it is that alibaba amongst others. we had that earnings report out in the u.s. we saw a big revenue beat coming through for the e-commerce division, alibaba's bread-and-butter essentially. sales coming in at around $32 million for the quarter. what is interesting, when you take a look, there is a sales story, we are also looking for any sort of update perhaps on what's happening with those spinoff plans but not a symbol of the seven analysts asked for any details. the company also reluctant to talk about it as well. something else we are tracki

katie: to your point the fed does not want to hike anymore, we heard from atlanta fed president earlier saying he sees no need to hike anymore, that the labor market is slumming. maybe they do not want to hike anymore. but what about the balance sheets, quantitative tightening? would he think the urgency of the fed is when it comes to the balance sheet? earl: quantitative tightening is an unknown. it is the first time we are going through this. at this point, especially because of financial stability concerns in the background as we saw in march, they do not want to add another unknown to the equation. i think they continue as is no matter what happens. they do not want to add an unknown or increase the financial possible instability in the background. katie: i am curious to hear your thoughts not necessarily on how many more hikes we get if any, but the question about cuts. we expect to see the first rate cut from the federal reserve? blake: we push them out to second quarter of next year. i should say the path of the botched, we do not see a sharp case of cuts, a gradual process. not

i don't think the fed has done enough, and i think the fed is enamored with this soft landing view.this outlook. i think there is a risk that the fed is patting itself on the back by the end of the year only to watch inflation potentially turn back up sometime next year. jon: let's get some reaction to that. i was looking at your note this morning in reaction to the cpi data and it seemed like you are in the camp that would believe there's enough of an inflation trend that would justify at the very least being on hold in september. is that fair? guest: that is a fair assessment. i think the soft landing versus hard landing can't debate might be simplifying the variety of views. our view is that yes, we do expect a recession to unfold before the end of the year and that is precisely why we think that there is a strong disinflationary impulse in core inflation in the rest of the year. however, we see that there's a lot of potential at first -- adverse supply shocks coming in the fall. gasoline increase will cause the cpi headlined to be pretty ugly and also extreme weather in the fall

not just the fed.lix: to that point, and that goes to the housing thing because that's a structural issue. we don't have enough homes. the fed will have to push against, which means higher for longer. the biggest mispriced? ? annmarie: one of the biggest -- ira: one is in the front end of the breakeven curve. we are still pricing a benign outcome. i do think inflation is probably going to be somewhat higher than what the market is pricing for. there's an opportunity there. to go back to what you guys were talking about with housing and inflation measures and the economy, we have to keep in mind that fed policy is only becoming restrictive in the last three months. we have only seen in the recent past the real fed funds rate is positive now. it was not earlier this year. you talk about long and variable. how long will it take for the housing market to collapse? that can take much longer this time than it has other cycles. in particular, debt loads and maturities are longer. you don't have things like co

the fed releasing the latest fed minutes.ead going into this for the major averages dow, nasdaq and s&p 500 all lower but just slightly. we'll see if anything changes. it has been somewhat muted day here at least right now before we hear more details on the fed's thinking, will they hike, will they pause, we'll have to wait and see we're going to discuss everything and see if the market can make some moves. of coursed watching the yields and ten year as well steve liesman has the details for those minutes. what you got >> minutes from the fed's most recent meeting show that most of the participants in the meeting still saw significant up side risk to inflation that could require further tightening so at least in that one statement there, pretty hawkish outlook from the federal reserve. but hold on before you make your immediate trades because these minutes are a mish mash. some saw down side risk to the economy and up side risk to unemployment so that kind of sort of works against that but it is a smaller number tha

we'll talk to cleveland fed pres

cuts built in than the fed has, but the fed will have to ponder if this is more than it wants on theg end. those 7%-plus mortgage rates could be crippling for the housing market and banks could be under renewed pressure like they were in march and companies will have to refinance the bargain basement rates they had from the pandemic into much higher yielding paper over the last several years where this could be exactly what the fed wants and it would see the yields as appropriate amid the world of higher growth and higher inflation and kelly, maybe a higher neutral rate. >> no, you didn't. you didn't go there. >> i did. >> i was looking at academic titles and i don't think you can talk the richmond felt default in our star from 2018. >> okay. i punned about that long before they did. i just want you to know because i would never leave a good pun, but there is a paper out recently by a couple of economists from vanguard and some time in the end of last week talking about a potential 1.5% real funds rate versus the fed's long rate of 0.5%. later on top of that, this long-held idea from

is that something the fed can and should ignore? katrina: the fed can't ignore it. when you have a tight labor market, you will see people able to move houses and they will do that for the job and with the idea that the increase in salary that they are getting is going to more than compensate them for the higher mortgage rates. in terms of the rest of the labor market, people are going to be more stuck in place versus the more mobile workforce. but you need to offset that stuck in place trend we've always feared in the past against the fact that zoom and other technologies are making it so much easier for people to be nomadic workforces. from our perspective, you got a very strong housing market. you don't have much new-home supply. on the existing home supply, people are staying in their houses. things are starting to work themselves out. tom: the heritage of franklin templeton is the balance between value and growth. is there growth in value? katrina: where we are seeing value is in companies that can grow cash flow. that is the big difference between a growth inv

louis fed president james bullet.ng us as former kansas city fed president, now a distinguished fellow at the center. thank you so much for your time joining us from jackson hole. pitiful background there. what can you tell us about where your expectations are for this session, especially when it comes to chair powell speech. >> well, what i would expect him to be -- to do is we are firm the fomc's commitment to the 2% inflation target, and with that reaffirmed, i think you will talk about leaving rates where they are, but he will watch the data, especially the september cpi numbers, that would have a big impact later on what they would do in that month. i think they are going to be focused on making sure inflation gets down to 2%, not 3%, as some people would like. i think he would wish that. shery: for our viewers across asia, how concerned are fed policymakers at this point about the china economic slowdown and whether that could have an impact on where policymaking goes from here? >> i think people in the u.s. are

she said the fed has work to do. even from the other doves, bostick being another one who did not explicitly say he is in the camp in september but perhaps this week, we hear more fed chat and a bit more direction on where they are going in september. as you know, the market is very much thinking the fed is on pause from here. there's only two basis points priced into that late september fed hike. lizzy: thanks for joining me for that morning round table. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of the daybreak newsletter. the lead on the ecb's latest survey results. they have china's property rose as well but that -- rows as well. economists reckon it will deliver one last hike next month despite signs of inflation pressures abating. they also have the surprise victory of argentina's congressman in a crucial primary vote that is set to upend the race. we will have more on that later. terminal subscribers can find all those stories and more by going to dayb .

the news was baked in or did the fed say it >> it is not soft enough, perhaps, for the fed that is whyher for longer. >> not hard enough for the fed they want a harder landing they got a soft landing. >> they're not done. >> reacceleratreaccelerating >> not hard enough for the fed. >> true. not enough of a landing. >> some z-pack in that bottle they have to take. >> unless energy prices filter thr through. energy is now a problem. >>> let's talk china news out of china overnight. central bank announcing the surprise interest rate kcut afte july economic data came in barclays is cutting 2023 gdp from 5.3% to 5%. we will go to eunice yoon in beijing with more. good morning >> reporter: andrew, as you said, china cut in the surprise move policy rate by the most since the start of the pandemic three years ago. this is a big signal that the authorities are concerned about the state of the economy the central bank reduced the one-year lending rate bigger than expected to 15 basis points n. points in addition, the cut of the key rate for short-term liquidity. the move came at the same time wh

what does it mean for the fed? kathleen: the fed already had a very big decision to make, july of the last meeting, september. there have been two months between those meetings. four big reports, two inflation reports, two jobs reports, mostly talking about cpi and employment. consumer prices are important but they are right behind cpi because they are wholesale. they don't cover retail. they don't cover what the consumer is doing. look at what is so interesting. ppi was up 0.8 percent year-over-year, a big jump compared to june up 0.2 percent and beating expectations. so on that side of the inflation ledger we just saw a cpi come in weaker than expected. just last thursday. now producer prices look too hot. it is just what the universe is trying to tell investors and the fed. on the same day the university of michigan inflation expectations, one of the oldest gauges of inflation expectations come away older -- explosion -- expectations come away older than what the new york fed does, goes back decades. inflation e

kailey: when do you think the fed starts to cut? is not until the fourth quarter of 24 primarily because we think that things will be good enough, that the fed will not feel compelled to cut very early. because you need two factors. you need inflation to be near their target. two, you need to see job losses. look at last week's jobless claims, they were fine. until you wind up with a period of job losses, several months of job losses, the fed will not consider cutting. jonathan: important question, were you there saturday night? ira: i was actually on holiday with my daughter. i was not there saturday. i did watch part of it. tom: what are we talking about? ira: lionel messi in new york. tom: to both of you quickly, i don't want to take away time. is he in his prime, past his prime? how do you judge this messi in america? ira: skilled allies he is as good as he has ever been. he will not go 90 minutes every game anymore because of his age, but when he is on the field, fresh and not injured, he is as good if not better that he has ev

and whether the fed pauses in december or not, i don't think the fed is restrictive yet when you looke is, we're maybe just now at neutral and maybe now getting to slightly restrictive territory and so there's no worry for a recession on the economy. we've been accustomed to 10-year treasury averaging 2.5%. for years before that it averaged 5.5%. i actually think this is an economy with can function with this higher level of rates you put all that together and that gives me optimism that after the veet we had, investors should be checking back in >> i want to be optimistic, too look for excuses to get in what do you sell if i got to save something to raise cash >> i don't think you'll raise any cash necessarily >> well, cash so i can buy the things i'm optimistic about along with you >> a lot of investors have gone into cash. there's $5 trillion or 6 trillion investors will start buying down and buying into things that have dipped i would buy the artificial intelligence >> you have nvidia running near all-time highs what kind of names are you looking at within that trade that you thin

the market is not completely behind the fed in terms of what the fed is saying. if you look at what the fed has said, they told us one more rate hike, and that is predicated on getting core pce down to a level that would require us to have 0.3 month on month for the rest of the year. we have had base affects, and those have come off. that's what we are seeing in europe. we may see that in the u.s., so that would suggest another rate hike between now and december, and therefore it is not all done. we are close to done in terms of hikes. alix: a lot of the data i find to be very confusing, like the pending home sales doing well but household spending revised higher. you have corporate profits lower but margins higher. there is no real readthrough at this point. mike: that was the point i was trying to make about how weird the economy is behaving. at some point, we will get back to some kind of coherent framework and you can figure out where you want to price assets but for the moment everything gets whipped around as data keeps coming in. what we saw in gdp and oth

they are not fed dependent but data-dependent.d the emphasis on data defendants what clues are you listening out to when it comes to lagarde when it comes to the next steps -- hike or pause, in terms of clarity from jackson hole? >> i'm not sure if it will bring us clarity but it will bring us debate. the head of the ecb has introduced the possibility in september of a hike or a halt. this is the first time we will hear from the head of the ecb since the july decision. we can see the contours of the debate. the german central banker was really defending the german economy saying we are not the sick man of europe. it is too soon deposit he said. and the british central banker saying the downside risks are becoming manifested in the economy. and we spoke to the -- >> the important thing is to look in the next prints of the data to see if we will see a softening of the core inflation. and inflation moving towards our target. that was ahead of gracias central bank. to answer your question, the challenge for lagarde today will be to da

i don't know what the fed chair will say, what rates are going to do. is it an ominous sign that the market doesn't look like it did last time? >> no, i think it makes sense. when interest rates are high, you have to adjust for that in valuations and so multiple expansion has been the name of the game this year for multiples to come back despite the fact that nvidia blew it out, it sort of makes sense where we were at the end of july. this august retrenchment makes sense to me. >> how about you, joe? >> it all begins with this battle they've been vocal about that. they've told you they're short they're pressing up against the federal reserve. on the other side of that, the asset management industry wants to get long duration they think there's value that's being realized in the corporat band market. i see it as needing to be resolved >> what part of the market looks the best to you right now? >> we still like health care in general. i think health care has a lot of characteristics to it that can provide growth as well as some defensive characteristics.

maria: a not a good situation if fed has to cut rates five or six times means we are in bad shape.zone, why has market rallied above and beyond where s&p is it is hike. >> the issue is we need -- at some point investors are going to want to see results of this a.i. hike, fun, shin ey. >> object everyone wants a.i. is to being to say in portfolio but come next quarter the quarter after you are going to have to see some results going to have to see businesses cutting costs generating more revenue, for that to kind of no through keep the market he will vaitsdz. maria: final thoughts here? >> look, i would define soft landing as cpi inflation below 2 1/2% on sustainable basis unemployment below 4% i think some optimism in equity markets recent months has been sense ma maybe a soft landing for the fed could mean something around 3% or below, you start to hear a lot of academics say maybe 3% would be better, we should move the target, don't say so out loud i think that scenario possibly fed without saying so out loud, says all right. a little below 3% is good enough that scenario is conc

fed minutes and strong u.s. seco data. november pricing picked up slightly and investors are selling treasures. the market outlook for 2024 is its most hawkish yet. two-year yields hovering around 5%. the 10-year at levels last seen in october. yields continuing the rise in the asia session. u.s. futures are currently flat. in part, because of the second theme of the week, china weakness. the hang seng is on track to enter a bear market after a raft of ugly micro data. and after interventions by the pboc have failed to restore optimism. feeding into treasury worries about the blowback for the global economy. begin is at 140 six, fueling more talk of yen intervention. we will break down all those market moves. the main number that matters for you is the lioness is beating australia's matildas 3-1, but it is a sore subject for some of you, so let's get back to markets. let's check in with charlotte yang. charlotte: it's a sea of red this morning in asia. we're seeing weakness across key equity markets after signs

commitment, the fed said we're committed to watching data which the fed should be doing. above expectations, retail sales blew through expectations. third quarter gdp looks pretty good. consumer price index is above expectations this is why the market is freaking a out a bit, rates moving higher. lack of demand and also the fact that the fed indicated longer, higher for longer perspective. this is all pushing upward pressure on yields for the near term. >> you ticked off a lot of things we're watching, seems things that seem to end kate the economy is growing. retail sales are out, they seem to be booming this week. how many rate hikes do you think the fed is eyeballing right now? >> the fed doesn't want to sip their hat, we at cetera think is the fed is dong, they will pause for the rest of the year. they will be remain higher longer than expected. as inflation comes down real yields are still who high. this will act like an anchor on the economy. the fed realizes this. why higher for longer? think about this, inflation is still above the fed's target, services inflation

a bit of fed speak in between. not heavy on the fed speak.i went after governor bowman as a certain kind of governor and official. we were sitting at saturday dinner talking about how the fed came out. jonathan: you described governor bowman as bob dole's intern. tom: she was. she is a political beast. that's ok. when the fed was invented in 1912 and the independent fitted 1915, this is what we wanted was an eclectic set of voices. some could only say it could be monetary. it is eclectic. i wish they voted like the bank of england. i wish there was more dissent. does bowman agree with bostick? no. jonathan: we both said on thursday we missed you. there was a three way split on thursday. two of the eight wanted 50 and not 25. you do not see that at the fed. tom: i wish we would. with great veneration we have someone very political like governor bowman. bostick has his own kinds of economics. very different from brainard or clara to. that is the eclectic power of our central bank. jonathan: -- lisa: we talked about the kansas city fed. they got

fed on a friday in august. nice to have that. >> everybody is paying attention to the speech, one of the last major catalysts of the month. next week we can talk about volume and whether or not everybody is on vacation before we really get back to work. >> that's right. september right around the corner. >> courtney, great to have you. to post 9 and the judge. >>> carl, thanks so much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. reaction to the fed chair's speech what it means for the markets and your money in the months ahead. the investment committee debating all of that. joining me for the hour today, karen firestone, joe terranova, jim lebenthal, rob sechan. let's check the markets. we've been all over the map. the dow is positive. the s&p is fighting it out, up 1.5. the nasdaq is negative. yields have since moved higher. i think i saw 4.25 on the ten year. joe, we're parsing every word. we knew we would. what's the market reaction? >> we had two catalysts this week and we're 0 for 2. still a sell t

if the fed does cut rates, i worry the fed is going to keep rates too high for too long.break in the system. it will be self-sustaining and the fed will not move as quick as it is supposed to. that could cause a deep recession. stocks would be around 3100. matt: i want to ask about your former boss, president biden also both spending money like it grows on trees. i think resident biden but a $1 trillion deficit this year. trump spent $8 trillion. is there anyone that will call for fiscal responsibility or are we all modern monetary theorists now. joseph: no. i did not like the monetary theorists they are, there may be a valid point they are, but what we saw with what you spend for a committee response budget, we had $6 trillion in covid spending and we spent almost how -- all of it. there does not seem to be any desire in washington right now to be more fiscally responsive. unfortunately i would argue the fact that the fed has the playbook of qa it has given washington on both sides the ability to spend perhaps in the old days where it was not the case. where alan green h

but the fed has done enough. the repricing you see is the market pushing outrate cuts, not necessarily going forward rate hikes. you can look at the one-year sofa rate. that's up more than the terminal rate this year that's just if the fed is going to stay higher for longer. the cpi print that we got last week, was an upside to prize that was the last ledge, in terms of whether rates are headed we're sort of topped out, and my expectations are for rates to reverse course the fed making the round about next year. >> we know that the fed chair is going to say the place is too high. we're going to be down a dependent. it's not going to get you idea that cuts are coming anytime soon what do you expect >> we expect that the fed is done here. you think about the federlines coming out of labor in the last few weeks. >> wages up. >> and by a lot. you're talking about contracts, 40% increases. that goes into core. i would say that rent looks like they're rolling over and the real economy, not oer, which is calculating cpi

the fed wants to see market expectations for more cuts sooner than next year than the fed said.y will get the market up to where they are. they want to sound ough. that is how he spoke. i think this is the message. it is data dependent. we don't know how inflation or growth will evolve. neither does the fed. we have non-farm payroll coming up. we will see it shows another strong month which will move you back to the hawkish hcamp. >> what has driven the yields higher? joumanna and i discussed it on the show. there seems a lot of factors have contributed. >> one with ofof the key things% treasury yields. i think the fitch downgrade was the catalyst, not the cause. that will not drive treasuries high for that long, but it highlighted the worries and that is discussed at jackson hole at debt levels. go back to the global financial crisis. that was a debt problem. eurozone was a debt problem. we have higherdeficits. it has to be a risk premium and that is part what have we are seeing. >> i would reframe it as a debt problem. now what you are beginning to see is the growth profile fo

we will receive the fed minutes later today.is interesting, i have not heard the fed talking about cuts at all but the market sees it differently. earlier this year the expectation was for a cut of 1.5% next year. now it is closer to 1%. that is still a decent cut, but to my ear, i have not heard the fed talk about that. i heard fed chair jay powell say cuts would be years away. that's another area where markets really disagree with the fed. guy: absolutely. you had that from neel kashkari as well in the last 24 hours. we are about to get the fed minutes from the last meeting, abigail, what will they tell us? 2:00 p.m. eastern, i think. economists are working closely for disagreement among policymakers. how much divergence will we see? matt, the key question, how many of the members are in camp neel kashkari? how many are in pause mode? what do we think the breakdown really looks like? matt: that's the key question. we are in a light period for fed speak at the moment. a lot of people are on summer vacation. you had people come

. >>> right now on "fast," the fed still worried about inflation. the market falling for the ninth time and rates keep on climbing. the ten-year with its highest yield since last october is the summer slump about to pick up steam? plus, full stream ahead. while linear tv's numbers keep tumbling, the streamers are crushing it. so, who besides netflix is ready to turn the eyeballs into profits? we'll go inside the numbers. >>> and the growing bidding war for u.s. steel tesla's awful august rolls on and the casino stocks crapping out, after a monster heater. i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site. and we start off with a surprising reaction to a pretty disappointing earnings report. shares of target rising nearly 9% immediately after posting q-2 results. the stock closing off those highs, but still up nearly 3% on the day. the move despite some big negatives in the numbers the company reporting its biggest revenue drop in seven years. first same-store sales decline in six it slashed full-year revenue and profit guidance

still to come, the global implications of the fed a higher for long goal -- the feds higher for longerdn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. i may be known for my legendary football career, take the first step to see if but truth is, i love a bunch of sports. the only trouble is knowing where to find them. that's why i got xfinity. so, i can easily find and watch whatever sport i'm into all in one place without missing a thing. even if it's football, australian football, or football football. in a word—it's fitz-credible. i got to trademark that one. this season, eligible xfinity rewards members can get up to $100 off nfl sunday ticket from youtube. sign up for xfinity rewards now. so, you've got the power of xfinity at home. now take it outside with xfinity mobile. like speed? it's the fastest mobile service around. with the best price for two lines of unlimited. only $30 bucks

all of this on fears of more inflation as we get into the fed minutes, the fed appears to be a littlen where to go here but not providing any sense of direction or clarity for the markets, and they are selling off just a little bit more. >> all right, let's move on. shares of coinbase are flat this hour, slightly higher by barely a tenth of a percent after the commodities futures trading commission gave it the green light to offer crypto futures trading to retail investors. finish this is the first time a crypto-focused platform will be allowed to offer futures trading alongside the traditional spot trading. joining me now in a fox business exclusive is dave ripley, ceo of the second largest u.s. crypto exchange, kraken. great to have you here with us today, dave. let's start there there. a victory for coinbase today. does kraken plan to offer a crypto futures trading on its platforms? where do you go from here? >> yeah, thanks, ashley. great to be here with you. so it's a great question for us. first of all, always great to see a step forward for anything, any company or or any part

so market is basically telegraphing saying they think fed is going to be done.nother hike, he may be right. maria: joe lavorgna what about that i know people are not expecting a hike in september. but is it all data-dependent or do you think there is another hike baked in there? >> i don't think there is another hike baked in there but dpat dependent, chair powell is correct, cpi, ppi, next report before the september meeting, that will matter the most. to me fed has done away too much i understand risk on inflation i get all that. the inflation expectations survey based measures expectations they've come down yield curve massively invertdz could argue never had occur everybody this inverted when you adjust for interest rates i understand inflation forward-looking bond markets, don't see it bond bond is telling us there is a problem ahead given the lags from when curve inverts to peaks we're not out of woods yet when fed has done too much they should top>> what is lag 12 months, 18 months now 11 rate hikes in 11 months, 8, 16 months>> the curve, inverted last ju

it is always statement in a fed easing cycle. -- steepened in a fed easing cycle. if we are getting through this point which the fed is simply done tightening, is not as good for the long end of the bond market and the short end privately sustainably fund rate for the -- tom: there is thousand people have never seen this yield environment and the basic belief is a financial system where going to die with higher yields. you and i live the higher yields decades ago. explain how we are all not going to die with a 4.5% 10 year yield. steven: the housing market coming to grips at base level of demand, you mentioned at rates, it is going to hurt, but the housing market -- it is really be change in interest rates, the impulse to not down the housing market. we have gotten used to this. where we came from in 2020 where it 10 year yield at 0.5%, that was an aberration. we have never believed we are going to a 1980 14% yield, we do not have decades of inflation and easing monetary policy behind us. we had this period of covid and 25% money supply back in 2020. it is not ther

does the fed still need to be in play right here?> well, yeah, look here's the thing, corporate bankruptcies are up 7% -- 71% since last year, small and mid-cap companies are the heart beat of our economy mind you. they don't have access to capital the large cap, megacap companies have. higher interest rates weighing on the companies. we're starting to see real stress on the balance sheet. liquidity issues are the problem. that trend of gdp date is getting weaker, it is not getting stronger. there is a risk in 2024 as liquidity comes out of the system. all the money from the inflation reduction act, all the different measures, don't forget restart of student loan payments next month that could potentially push the economic growth rate a little lower. we need to be at least aware of that risk. charles: the other side of this of course is the earnings recession. we've been in one five quarters or so. i have lost track. you put up a great chart though, talking about earnings. it feels like, again i alluded to this with the gdp report, i

in '95 the fed actually cut. that was a different story it was good for the markets as well as equity people we look a lot at the fed the leadership is important. the bernanke legacy, the advancements in technology that creates efficiencies for business and the consumer to navigate tough periods we think we're coming out of the woods. we're making good progress and the light outside is not an oncoming locomotive with sunshine. >> we get two more inflation rates this month we get an unemployment report. you're expecting things to be benign. >> we expect benign. if they're not particularly benign, we expect the market would be able to digest it in fairly short order. >> what does that mean >> that means you can get a haircut, but it doesn't mean we're looking for a correction at this point. as long as we continue to see the overall resilience we're seeing among the companies reporting for the second quarter. we see the fed being remarkably -- to have done that skip, skip to my lou, what the heck was going on there.

the fed is making it so banks can't do that.cial real estate business we need to have access to credit to roll over loans already there. we are playing with fire, my friend. charles: political observation i will fold in another question i was bringing up to you. this is on treasury's website. it tells you how much the u.s. government spent this year. they proudly say $5.3 trillion, that is what they spent this year. there is the rationale, they say according to the constitution's preamble the purpose of the federal government is to establish justice, insure domestic tranquilty, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our prosperity. these goals are achieved through government spending. sounds like to me the constitution is saying run amok with deficits, run amok with debt as long as the people are happy. >> oh, my god. i've got to go to that web site and see that, take a screen shot. now that you have shamed them by mentioning it will not be there tomorrow,

charles: to that point, recent poll shows that this particular fed, the powell-led fed has are less credibilityessors. the general public, by the way, the general public knows more about the federal reserve now than i think at anytime ever. let me ask you about the chances of another great moderation. ben bernanke attributed three things, structural change, the economy and improved economic policy and also good luck. as we see fiscal policy focused on spending particularly when it comes to energy, the amount of money it will take to transer to this clean energy regime if you will it will be extraordinarily expensive for years to come, wouldn't that be the perfect backdrop we can't force 2% when all this fiscal spending never goes away? >> i don't think you want to change the inflation target because there is high debt and deficit and things like that. in fact i think we'll need to get our deficit down over time and if we want to spend more money on the clean energy transition we need to cut some other spending or raise -- charles: we don't ever cut other spending jason. that is the point. we ad

is engineered by the fed. in other words, it's the fed trying to cool the economy down, to cool inflation down. the slowdown you're seeing in china and for that matter the slowdown in europe is not engineered by the central banks. it's a slowdown coming in the china case because ofglobal export slowing. it's also because of some problems in the profit market. those things are difficult to deal with for policymakers in. in europe, slowdowns to exports to russia and china. those are more difficult things to deal with. i think if there were to be a harder landing in the global economy, and if we have a sharper slowdown in the u.s., the fed can turn around. whereas we have a slowdown in europe and china, it gets a lot more tricky for policymakers because the source of the slowdown in europe and in china, in particular, is not policymakers but, instead, homegrown issues with what's going on in the housing mashlg every market and what's going on with global growth. >> our thanks as always keeping us honest on some o

what does the fed strategy look like?ad so many different fit officials say a lot of it comes out to what the data will show, and that will continue to be the case from here on out. haslinda: you have got to wonder whether the fed really knows that strategy. it is data dependent, so we will have to wait and see. bloomberg's jill disis in hong kong. we have breaking news. kkr seeking to take space tech firm ohb private, and is set to do so with the founding family. that is according to people familiar with the matter. the u.s. bank firm is set to announce monday and offer for 30% of freely traded shares in a deal that would value it at about one billion euros, including debt. we will continue to monitor that story as it breaks. for now, back to markets and get perspective insights from robert hoffman, head of investment counselors in south asia at citibank. all of the data coming out is pretty mixed and you have to wonder what it means for the fed. robert: they are going to have to parse through a number of different data

david: you think basically there is this big gap between the last fed meeting and the next fed meeting that is still a month away. the market will take a look at what powell says. how is he evaluating the data that has come out? even if he adopts the stance, which i think he will because he wants to leave at least a rate hike on the table if needed, if he does that, the market is still factoring in 42% chance of the rate hike with no more cuts this year. i don't think he will move that much. if he was to sound a bit more dovish, obviously, you would see yields come off quite a bit. for him to be hawkish, he has to be really hawkish for that to kick in. another factor to factor in his the upcoming 20 year yield auction. how well is that received by markets? if it is not received well by markets, you could see pressure no matter what powell says in the near term. lizzy: thanks to jill and david for the morning round table. i also want to bring you up-to-date on the latest on the situation in ukraine. denmark pledged to send 19 f-16 fighter jets to kyiv while the netherlands has also prom