our next guest says this week's retail sales data and minutes from the fmoc could reinforce the soft landing narrative and support stocks joining us, icapital chief investment strategist, amoroso welcome back you're looking for momentum this week >> we are. we have had a bit of consolidation in s&p but we've had a pullback in tech stocks. we just heard this from the new york fed results and i think we're going to hear from retail sales and fmoc that soft landing is the narrative of the land i expect retail sales to come in pretty strong because, look, consumers have a paycheck that is greater than it was last year and in real terms, yooefrear ovr year wage growth is running up we have the fmoc minutes on wednesday, which i think will reinforce, the committee is likely wanting to pause. i think that's the message we'll hear you put two and together together, that should soothe the market's nerves around a soft landing. unless we get a spike meaningfully higher in rates, which we've come a long way in a short period of time so i don't think we'll do that. i think the main narrative thi

there is uncertainty with the september fmoc meeting.abilities associated with the next two meetings and that could drive the shorter-term moves in the market. >> we had two things happen last week that a lot of people thought would give direction to the market. nvidia earnings and jackson hole. still a lot of undcertainty. we are waiting for pce. that will give us some answer about september. what is the big theme you are seeing? >> i think the overarching theme for the last year and a half has been valuation as it relates to the aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle in history. the surge in yields on the short end and long end which brings the risk-free rate back into the picture with the higher discount rate, it means the forward earnings are less valuable. that puts pressure on the market overall and highly valued segments of the market. you have a move back up in yields and break on the upside, that is where the pressure is recently on the higher valuation segments of the market. >> with the uncertainty in the market, what is

obviously, the fmoc meeting coming up on the 20th, we'll get a new dot plot there. again, i didn't hear anything that would indicate they think significant further tightening is needed. i think it's more on the tweak side. >> i thought it was interesting when powell was talking about the recent reads on inflation, he seemed reluctant to get too excited about what he had seen there. had some doubt about the recent decline we had seen. what do you read into those comments? >> yeah, i think that's right. if you -- depending on how you slice or dice it, we have seen it, as the chairman pointed out, we have seen improvement there. if you look at the three-month annualized pace, that's still well above the fed's target. it's above 3% right now. and so i don't think anybody at the fed wants to declare victory. i think the consensus is leaning towards maybe the more hawkish side at this point. again, not slamming on the brakes at this point, but i don't think anyone on the committee is looking to cut rates here in the near term. >> next week's going to be busy, jay, between

when you think about what chairman powell just said at the last fmoc meeting, it was different from the prior one for the year ahead you heard it from the president of the federal reserve bank of new york that if inflation was headed down convincingly and in the coming year that monetary policy need not stay as restrictive. that is the bull or dovish case. how we respond over the next few months to this and whether or not this is persistent inflation is still the ongoing issue the stock market is taking great comfort from the drop in headline inflation from 9 to 3 we still think by the end of the year, headline inflation will be higher at 3.5% what has happened with monetary policy is dramatic from where we were from 2020 and 2021 with zero policy rate for qe. i think the dip for cpi and lower if the federal reserve doesn't ease out into 2024 that is the big picture. >> if that is the case, that is not terrible it feels like this economy could be resilient enough to avoid a hard landing or recession scenario is the market, i guess -- the question is is the market priced for perfection g

. >>> back in the u.s., fed chairman jay powell says inflation is too high and the fmoc is prepared toike rates further. they must move carefully as they move forward. the fed cannot claim victory in the fight against inflation yet. the fed promised to chekeep up battle. >> we tightened policy significantly the last year. inflation has moved down from the peak, a welcome development, but are prepared to move rates higher until we are confident inflation is moving down. >> after the powell speech, the chance of the pause in september stands at 80% according to the fed funds futures with the odds of the hike in november at 50%. the managing partner and head at chatham financial joins us. thank you for joining us to analyze the messaging from jay powell on friday. in your view, did we hear anything significantly new from the fed chair? >> i think from the perspective, the key emphasis taken away is higher for longer. the expectation that the rates are remaining at the current level or higher for longer than the market anticipated. the fed has raised rates all year and the market continued

manufacturing prices as well on wednesday with, target, tjx and chisco out we have housing figures and fmocad the philly fed survey. we wrap up with earnings from deere and palo alto networks on friday do not miss brian sullivan's interview with florida governor and republican presidential candidate ron desantis that's tonight on "last call" at 7:00 p.m it should be an interesting interview there. >>> let's talk about where we stand in the market. let's look at real estate. one of the smallest sector in the s&p and one you can see is xlre which is up 1% on the year to date basis. if you look within the sector and real estate overall, you look at the top performers and specific to key parts of the real estate market well tower and iron mountain and digital realty for more insight on the markets, we have chris merrill, the founder of harris street chris, the interesting part of the market is we are focused on what is a red hot residential, single family home builder trade. where do investors lookwhen they are looking outside of there for the potential growth market for enterprise or business

. >> patrick is a voting member of the fmoc.alk to gina smiley who is in jackson hole for the event. thank you for taking time. >> absolutely. it's 3:30 here of. you are not competing with much. >> i was looking at the cme fed watch tool. jay powell speaking at 10:00 a.m. the next meeting is 26 days away. what do you expect? >> it is an interesting one. i think we will tell you they are not expecting a huge signal from jay powell today because it is so many days until the next mee meeting. he will not want to back the fed into a corner where they have to do one thing or the other. i think we will all pay attention to his tone. you know, is he still warning like he did last year that the economy is in for pain before inflation comes down or does he take a more optimistic stance? does he sound more complacent in the world where inflation has come down since last summer. i think the open question about what that tone is the open t theme. >> last year with inflation around 9% and you saw a hawkish jay powell of. we read your story i

slightly hawkish fmoc minutes. and wage data with china. that has been a big sdtory. we have been asking questions of what policymakers do to shore up the property sector. that story from overnight. first of all, welcome back. >> thanks for the rundown. you made it eeasy. >>> let's talk about china. cut the one-year loan prime rate to 3.45% and defied expectations in the five-year lpr keeping the rate on hold at 4 p.2%. the property sector fueled the strong expectations from the central bank after the surprise cuts to short-term medium rates last week. this comes after a move of weak data from the second largest economy. the survey showed a surprise contraction in the manufacturing sector before exports boosted their steepest fall since the start of the covid pandemic. china cpi reading showed the country slipping to deflation for the first time since february of 2021. julianna, we have been talking about country garden and the country's largest developer and missing bond mapayments as wll. >> let's get a check on the markets in china. you have red across the board. c

over at mizuho, it's likely to be detailed in the minutes of the july fmoc meeting, emphasizing how theis conflicted on the way forward. at citi, minutes may reveal the leading edge of a debate about the appropriateness of keeping policy rates evaluated, even as job growth and inflation have recently cooled. all that's true. that's one set of problems and good arguments for the doves they want to hold or even cut rates, yet the hawks have gotten more supportive of recent economic data, showing how r resilient the economy has been not running moreau potential, which has intensified since the last meeting the debate over policy between the hawks and the doves, they actually have intensified since the last meeting guys >> i wonder if we get any signal, steve about the collective willingness to keep tightening because it's hard to figure out, based on the chatter from the various fed members, kashkari, who's a voter this year, feels like he would do another hike. bowman's a governor, would do another hike but it's not clear what the consensus is right now >> sarah, you have to attach a word

sara eisen has the morning off retail sales, fmoc minutes, and eco data headed our way. >> we are 30teel shares surging, the company rejecting an unsolicited bid to take over for $7 billion as they explore, quote, strategic alternatives and paypal, in the green, naming a new ceo, executive alex chris, more on that news in a moment. >>> and finally, tesla under pressure, down digits double on the month, and more price cuts this morning, especially in china. those details later this hour. guys >>> so china, big topic of conversation this morning, the risk of contagion, the potential for either just a churn of headlines, a churn of noise that i think has investors a little bit on edge this morning, potentially outweighing some positive headlines that are out there, the potential for additional rate cuts in 2-q, at least according to goldman but china more in focus this morning than it has been. >> the journal focusing on the corporates that are suffering as a result we talked to one of them i mean, caterpillar. others, starbucks actually doing okay but the chinese economy overall has be

and i hear that consistently from the fmoc members.on is going to come down to that 2% target before they call off future rate increases, or certainly even talk about cutting rates. >> we're almost out of time, president. one last thing we had an individual on earlier who's saying, under the surface, there's some troubling things. whether it's commercial real estate or small businesses, because of the extent that the yield curve has been inverted that small banks, other banks haven't been able to make money in the usual way and that that is eventually going to come to the surface is that part of the things that you're talking about right now that the fed needs to be wary and careful to acknowledge that maybe there's some things that we don't know about right now, that could go wrong in the next six months >> i think that's very much the case, joe. and i think history would tell us, again, we haven't done away with lags in the policy effects. if you think back to 2005 tightening cycle, it took months for that full effect to work its way

as we saw in the july fmoc minutes before the latest hotter than expect ed inflation number, there wasll a significant upside risk to inflation. i do think the chairman is going to emphasize the need for more work to be done and potentially resulting in a higher for longer rate scenario. >> karen, is this an event as far as the stock market is concerned? is there only downside risk to the chairman talking hereand he will be hawkish and that is not possiblitive for the stock mark? >> it is not much of an event like last year where we were looking for guidance from powell. it will be subdued. we are looking for powell to give us guidance of progress with inflation. i don't think it will be as groundbreaking as last year. the market knows we have a way to go with inflation. it has stronger than normal economic data as of late. i think the fed chairman is only going to say what we already k know. >> karyn, are you advising the fed is going to stick the landing here and it will come off the balance beam and stand up with its arms in the air and get 10s across the board here? are you concern