i'm francine lacqua in london.'s get straight to the bloomberg business flash. >> vinci has agreed to acquire a majority stake in get wic airport for 2.9 billion pounds. with total traffic of 45 million passengers in 20 18, it will become the largest single a report in vinci's global network. it comes less than a week after the airport was thrown into chaos by multiple sightings of an illegal drone. shares in south africa have surged after a carrier settled allegations that it transferred a .1 billion funds out of nigeria. nigeriaral bank of agreed to clear the carrier, which means the company will pay $56 million to satisfy officials over the allegations. nigerian authorities initially wanted a full reversal of the dividend payment. likely to cut more jobs in the next year as it shifts business to more profitable centers in asia and the u.s. -- speaking to bloomberg, the chief executive says the bank needs to reduce headcounts will finding ways to grow revenue in the region. japan's biggest investment bank has str

i'm francine lacqua in london.word news. viviana: 2019 may begin with a partial u.s. government shutdown . it started a week ago after republicans said they did not plan any votes. president trump is demanding $5 billion with a border wall with mexico. he tweeted most government employees losing pay because of the closure are democrats. the administration has granted its first exclusion for tariffs imposed on china for intellectual property rights violations. the united states trade representative approved almost 1000 requests for exclusions . they cover $34 billion worth of chinese goods. the import tariff taken affect in july. the exclusions are retroactive. giuseppe conti says 1% is the italian government threshold for growth. the prime minister making the comment today at a press companies before a vote on his budget bill is due tomorrow. if italy misses a deadline, it must use a special procedure to revert to this year's budget. the hedge fund industry is headed for its worst performance since 20 11. 440 funds

i'm matt miller in berlin for francine lacqua. intelligence analysts have been doing crystal ball gazing as the year draws to a close. we just spoke with jonathan about the banks. take on thee potential fallout from the u.s.-china trade war in 2018. ♪ despite the recent trade truce, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the trade war and the negative impact. >> we continue to see the shift china as theut of entire supply chain diversifies the risk on longer-term. >> our job you is that there could be -- our view is that there could be a minimum downside. i think the chinese government will step in and reinstate the tax incentive to push up auto sales. trading other two partners. [indiscernible] >> the prices should continue to remain volatile next year and the trade war between the u.s. and china is already driving a slowdown in global demand, and that could accelerate. matt: continue to watch bloomberg television from bloomberg intelligence. it has clearly been a painful 2019 for those long equities around the wor

with me, francine lacqua. are going to december 11th, a critical vote for prime minister may. is that on? francine: it is. a lot are talking about nothing else. it was interesting to catch up with paul donovan. even if there is a second referendum, people have brexit fatigue. the day is your interview with richard clarida. speech, the powell gives us great hindsight to look forward into 2019. we will do that with the vice chairman in about 29 minutes. , aer today, erik schatzker conversation with the president of argentina. look for that in the 3:00 p.m. hour. your first word news, here is sebastian salek. sebastian: president trump calls his weekend trade truce a deal. has agreed to postpone a planned tariff increase on chinese goods for three months. president trump tweeted china duties on to remove american-made cars. they still have difficulties on intellectual properties. saudi arabia and russia extended their agreement to manage their market. it leaves the door open for a meeting in vienna. november was

tom keene new york, francine lacqua in london.our favorite moments of the year, talking about the year past and looking forward to next year.

tom keene in new york, francine lacqua in london.favorite moments of the year, talking about year past. more than any year, looking forward to next year. this year it was nuts.

i'm matt miller in here for san -- francine lacqua. after a terrible week for stocks, both for the u.s. and in europe, we will take a look at what is going on. almost 7/10dex down of 1% area 2018 the worst year for the stoxx 600 since 2008. the euro now at 114.43. brent is trading at $56. the 10 year is right now below 2.8%. as far as u.s. stocks, it's been a disastrous month for those who are invested long. all of them down. more than 6%. small caps got hit even harder. the russell 2000 index is down more than 10%. it's been decimated in december alone. it has not been a good time for risk assets. news get the first word right now. we go to new york. >> jim mattis retiring at the end of february. he cited differences with president trump over the direction of u.s. foreign policy. the presidents of the successor would be named soon. decision to pull troops out of syria was seen as a clear rebuke to the former army general. democrats quickly weighed in. i am shaken by the resignation of general mattis is what it means for our country, m

tom keene and francine lacqua. sis in the modern history of the conservative party. i thought that gave scope and scale. francine: it does. i'm looking forward to the speech of hammond. we also had a chance to speak with the foreign secretary, talking about the need with many people believing and not believing that we need to protect the u.k. from a no deal brexit. what is significant is that now, because of where we are in the kind of messiness of it all, every person and every party now think they can get the brexit they want, so there's very little commonality. tom: it is beautiful here, a warm winter day. they have no idea what a real winter is in london. but in this beautiful setting, i said the nation is exhausted. is that right? are the people exhausted from this? francine: i don't know how much the nation follows live by blow the brexit negotiation, but a lot of people have been reenergized because they see this kind of u-turn from the prime minister as a possibility of getting the brexit they want. that is

francine lacqua in london. on tuesday and wednesday, francine there will be a vote.there was meant to be a vote, and theresa may may postpone it. david balin is with us. and amorize david frost fancy chart going back a million years of depression. this happens to be the dow, not the spx. by it, hold it, and the one word is patients. patientce.it -- nobody has it. david: you want to own a basket of equities when you think of long-term growth. equities or as. mix between u.s. and global would be better and sharper than that. if you want to get a great long-term return, you need to increase your exposure. tom: are you going into more em? would saynversation i is everyone is long on em except for a few. david: just a very small amount. of key is rotation, the idea buying asia when it is down, buying em and rotating your portfolio over time. when you look at a chart like this, it reminds you of the absolute need to have long-term views. tom: let's get francine in here. francine: we look at emerging markets, is that under pressure is putting in place something different th

in london, francine lacqua. people go, why are we working today? rking on christmas eve. our markets closed in london? francine: markets are not close. some of the markets in germany are closed. thatve to look at the week was in terms of the markets and volatility and the politics in the u.s. over the weekend. tom: u.s. markets are open for trading. let us turn first to first word news. at least 200 81 people have been killed in the indonesian sunol me. -- indonesian tsunami. most victims were tourists. they were killed thursday thought to have been triggered by and direction -- by an eruption of a volcano. and may hurt the tourism industry. steven mnuchin speaking to the six largest u.s. banks over the weekend as the white house moves to try to calm the markets after the recent losses. the message, they've ample liquidity for lending to consumers, businesses, and operations. steve mnuchin was reassuring financial markets that jay powell is safe at the fed after reports president trump has discussed firing him. china has discussed another round of t

our world headquarters in new york, francine lacqua in london.rs in your, francine lacqua in london. how was theresa may's weekend? francine: she is getting ready for her speech to parliament later on. are expecting her to say a second referendum is no good because it will break the trust. there, i learned, i could barely keep up with brexit. francine: that is not true. tom: i am trying. thank you for your help. in new york city, here is viviana hurtado. oniana: theresa may is going the attack against supporters of a second preference -- brexit referendum. she will tell parliament it will be a breach of trust. may will explain why european leaders turn back her attempts to make the deal more attractive. a budgetconte has made deal with populist leaders aimed at averting a budget crisis. it lowers the deficit target to just over 2%. matteo salvini says there will be no change to populist campaign promises, income for the poor and a lower retirement age. top u.s. senate democrats say it is up to president trump to say whether there is a partial gov

i'm francine lacqua.et's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. >> brian moynihan, the ceo of bank of america, is loosening the reins on the investment bankers at the firm. he said the bank is sending out dealmakers in search of more transactions in the u.s. it is seeking to regain market share after cutting back on risk. >> we got a little too careful. the team is building that back out. we added 25 or so investment bankers. we are adding fast. we lost some share in midsize client m&a deals. one company has lost a quarter of its market value after the luxury tv maker cut an earlier forecast of growth. my a changeeen hit to a more direct distribution model. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much. let's get back to the markets. stocks in europe are lower and in japan, the topic hasn't a bear market territory after a 21% decline. fund hasros' namesake reduced most of its macro wagers , moving away from the strategy that made him a fortune and inspired a generation of trader

tom keene in new york, francine lacqua in london.lking about the year past. more than any year, looking forward to next year. this year it was nuts.

tom keene and francine lacqua are off. thedramatic highest $18,500, that coin has plunged to $4000 -- bitcoin has plunged to $4000 in the span of a year. they believe the long-term prospect is brighter than ever. on crypto his take here it where does crypto go? is it a full errands to find out where we might go? naeem: if you are a speculator, yes. if you are a believer in the technology, no. anding at the crypto space the user production technology, it will have an impact if you are a longer-term investor. if you are short-term investor you could have made a lot of money. ethereum hit its low of 81. on friday, it was up 44% on the day. talk about a santa rally. caroline: in terms of the bloomberg galaxy crypto index, it was up 17% on monday and today down somewhat. where would you look in terms of the crypto space universe? you mentioned it the area, -- ethereum, that has seen some bounce off it flows. is it still all about bitcoin? are you a believer that one currency wins the war? naeem: yes. bitcoin is the religion. if

i'm francine lacqua from london.n business sentiment has deteriorated to its lowest flel more than two years. corporate confidence fell from 102 last month to 101 for december. trade tensions and a risk of a brexit deal could hamper an economic rebound. thank you for giving us a little bit of your team. how woished are you that -- worried are you that trade concerns escalating? >> there are signs of a certain detans that the u.s. government may come to a misunderstanding. there is this background risk and it is not only the risk there is. the situation of italy. the situation about brexit. so a number of difficulties weighing on the economy here. francine: what signals are businesses sending about the possibility of a rebound from -- are they confident about the future? what are they tell you? >> in fact, the car industry is having difficulties due to the emissions tests. the car industry is sending more positive signals. there may be a certain rebound in the next year. other industries are sending bad signals. if we

in berlin in i'm for francine lacqua, who is normally in london. let's check in on markets and see how things are going. we had a mixed trade at the start and have gains now across the board. the stoxx 600 is currently up .2%. the euro is up to 1.14 right now. speaking of concerns about a crude nymex is trading for $46 and $.30. oil is really one commodity to watch today. take a look at my gmm. we can see some interesting moves, first, on some smaller indexes. romania, for example, there's a big drop in equities. there is a new tax law going into effect that is also going to hit a lot of the companies that operate their -- there. that is really dragging on markets. you can also see the sovereign bond gollum, their two-year bonds are soaring yields, which is to say that investors are selling them off like hotcakes. let's get to bloomberg first word news. >> high there, matt. china and the u.s. have health high-level talks to discuss the trade dispute, steve mnuchin haveng bloomberg that they held recent talks and both sides are focused on documentin

francine lacqua, good morning. francine: good morning. we are at westminster. on will be later voted on, we heard that the vote is expected to be later on. i am joined by graham brady. he is the man that gave us the news this morning. what is the procedure now? >> the procedure was triggered by 15%, the conservative party asking for a confidence vote. once that was reached, it was up to me to inform the prime minister and discuss and consult with her. i did that with her last night. she was keen to move ahead as quickly as we can. she will speak today. in the house of commons at 5:00, and after that meeting at 6:00 and 8:00, a ballot will take immediately counted afterward, and results announced soon after that. francine: how awkward is the timing? >> i think it was the prime minister's view that it was beneficial not to wait. there had been significant speculation mounting. we have had speculation about this for weeks or months now. this week it had been building considerably. that in itself was becoming a distraction from the serious business of government. w

francine lacqua in london. that's grown ♪ oil plunging this morning. 5%. if you're looking at the market, for the moment, no output cuts. that is spooking some traders when it comes to oil. i would also look at what president trump may or may not tweet. yes.yes, i'm glad you brought that up. in thatemarkable interview how he went back time and time again to the communications strategy for the various parties. toncine: it is now up vladimir putin and his oil minister to decide whether russia goes ahead with production cuts with the saudi arabia. , $50.45. here is your first word news. difficult trade talks between the u.s. and china got more complicated. cfo ofhas arrested the huawei. of the founder faces extradition to the u.s. the chinese embassy in ottawa is demanding the u.s. and canada release her. six u.s. senators introducing a new resolution on capitol hill saying saudi crown prince mohammad bin salman was complicit in the murder of a saudi journalist. it is nonbinding, but would put pressure on president trump to act. japan, a u.s.of marine refu

francine lacqua in less -- in westminster.it and what the vote of confidence means for the future of brexit. john, thank you for staying with us. we were talking about the merits and non-merits of a second referendum. would it be saddled with the second referendum? aret of all, the polls similar to what we had before the first referendum. even if it was on the remain side, would we settled the question? >> i don't think it would. it would leave the country as divided as it is. , itpurposes of a referendum would open these divisions more. that will be a factor that weighs heavily with mp's. francine: do you see any appetite for a second record -- referendum apart from the people who want to remain in the eu? >> know, the people in favor of the second referendum feel confident the result would be to remain, but i am not sure that would be the outcome. if you look at the polls now, they are showing 48 for leave and 50 24 remain, but that is for remain, but that is what it was in 2016. it swung the other way, and that could happen

francine lacqua in london. s. stock markets are closed to mark the day of mourning for president george h w bush. we are getting breaking news from european stocks. down 0.8%.00, november services pmi, 53.4, a touch above estimates. euro-dollar on the back of concerns on the trade war, finally a glimmer of hope as we heard from china on the fact that they are making progress. and because of the defeat of theresa may in the house of commons, because we are five days away from the important vote on december 11, i am looking at the pound. 1.2728. of the funerale of president george h.w. bush coming up at 10:00 a.m. new york time, 3:00 p.m. in london. here is bloomberg's first word news. prime minister theresa may has lost a series of votes in a dramatic session in the u.s. -- u.k. house of commons. if as expected, may's view is defeated next week, the prime minister was defeated over the publication of secret legal advice on the eu with draw deal. the government says it will publish its full legal advice at 11:30 a

i'm francine lacqua. we are seeing a little pressure 600 down 1%, minors under pressure and commodity stocks. people are concerned with the alating trade war or reescalating trade war between u.s. and china on the arrest of officer and ancial concerned about domestic growth in china. we are looking at the key vote in the u.k. parliament over heresa may's brexit plan and coming up we will look at some after cutting earnings force and you can see bafs down race for 4.5%. e will talk to the chief executive of lowe's about the u.s. economy and his hotel business. give as you glimpse into the strength of the consumer later on. peyt newtime let's get news from york city. >> e.u. top court says u.k. can reverse the brexit process. in a ruling this morning that european appealed the court of justice says it is free o revoke article 50 which signaled the intention to withdraw from the e.u. plans tosays it has no reverse article 50. theresa may is set to decide whether to go forward tomorrow with the vote despite p

in london, francine lacqua. we will have an important press conference from mr. macron in minutes. it is the prime minister that will actually start speaking, and we will hear from the president of it later. hopefully we will have more context on what they plan to do. the concern was that it sort was a fuel hike, but then you saw cars burning in the middle of paris, blockades, and general anger. tom: very good. in new york city with your first word news, here's uma. reporter: french president emmanuel macron is trying to appease the protest movement, announcing a suspension of the fuel tax hikes that led to violent demonstrations in paris. the taxesia saying will be suspended for several months. brexit opponents in the u.k. sayingtten a boost, britain should be allowed to reverse its article 50 noticed that began the divorce process with the eu. if the court agrees, that could help those campaigning for brexit to get a second referendum. president trump's advisors are struggling to explain the trade deal he said he made with chinese president xi jinping. trump has said china agreed

david: that is francine lacqua from westminster. was speaking in brussels, saying it is right she will not be the leader after the next election. she is preparing to get the deal over the line. she is still trying to toe that line. david: you have to respect her tenacity. alix: what does the market have to show the u.k. and parliament to say you need to get this done now? what is the market stress we need to see? nick: probably the pound below 120 against the u.s. dollar. maybe a 10% decline in equities. it is not clear they will have a vote before the end of this year. prime minister may left the clock running sometime running in january. i don't know if it will be that many choices for the u.k. parliamentarians. alix: now there seems like a lot. seven different options and all of them have lots of different sub areas. how do you frank them? them?k >> theresa may negotiated be un-negotiable. she did it. she agreed. all we are debating is the hypothetical case the two-year transition does not result in a trade deal. we are debating

i am francine lacqua here in westmins

he spoke exclusively to francine lacqua about the buyback and credit suisse's turnaround. >> we alwaysd that if they supported us, we would come to a position where we can return capital and we are pleased to return that point. >> shareholders ask for more buybacks and you could do it. >> it is not a function of the current position and market conditions. these numbers announced today are very prudent. it is reasonably safe. i'm not known for holding capital as a ceo. any extra capital will be issued. francine: talking a little bit about the headwinds in the market conditions, are the going to get worse from here? >> when i came into this job, we already have been very long into an expansion. all of our thinking has been about protecting the bank. we cut risk. we cut cost by more than $5 billion. we could stand a drop in revenue and remain profitable. we raised capital and we dealt with their issues. low risk, low-cost, low capital. a great place to go into a difficult environment. francine: this is a market correction or something worse? >> growth albeit at a lower level which drives

joining us now is bloomberg's francine lacqua, who is still outside.been going on for some time now, that at the same time, she has the votes she needs to withstand this leadership challenge tonight. francine: yes, actually, david, on the back of that bbc were, they have been doing the numbers, they probably have a spreadsheet on what w yoump is -- what mp is going to vote for her or against her, but right from the start almost, first of all, when we found out there was a vote of confidence, the pound dropped, then it kind of strength and, because there is engthened, because there is hope, industry wins it it, she ishe wins almost immune from another conservative challenge from the leadership party for another 12 months. if you think about this from the logic that she could actually, stronger, she could actually come out more victorious, and it actually means maybe some of the brexit supporters that have been against her so far would actually support the prime minister. alix: all right, so francine, where do we go from here? give us the ted talk. franc

francine lacqua sat down with royal bank of scotland ceo ross mcewan in london. uncertainty over brexit is doing damage to the british economy, which is why he supports prime minister theresa may's deal with the eu. ross: i have been a backer of the deal because at the moment, i do not see another deal. from a business perspective, we need certainty. with any deal, we negotiate hard over a long time, you are not going to get everything you want. there will be parts of that that you have to give up some things to get something else. what is starting to happen is investment is not being made. this is the last 6-12 months, larger companies are not investing for the long-term at the moment. they are wanting to see certainty. that is what is important for the u.k. economy is to build certainty. i think it is really in the hands of mp's. there is a deal on the table. make up your minds up. do you want it or not? , ifcine: do you think sme's we have a hard brexit, are they ready for it? ross: i don't think they are. conversations we have had with business customers, we

he spoke exclusively to francine lacqua about the buyback and credit suisse's turnaround.ane: we always said that if shareholders supported us, we would come to a position where we can return capital and we are pleased to have reached that point. francine: if shareholders ask for more buybacks, you could do it? tijane: it is not a function of the current position and market conditions. these numbers announced today are very prudent. they, after discussions with a regulator for next year. it is reasonably safe. there can always be upsides in life. i'm not known for holding capital as a ceo. any excess capital will be issued. francine: talk to me a little bit about the headwinds and the market conditions. are they going to get worse from here? tijane: when i came into this job, we already have been very long into an expansion. all of our thinking has been about protecting the bank against the downside. what did we do? we cut risk by 40% to 50%. we cut cost by more than $5 billion, making the breakeven point of the bank lower. it could withstand a drop in revenue and remain p

matt: that was ross mcewan, the ceo of rbs, speaking with bloomberg's francine lacqua.interview, the chairman of our place japan said he is seeing real concern over brexit among japanese clients. anxiety.eal what i would say is they are sense will prevail that on the other hand, we are working closely with our clients and colleagues in london. there is an element that you want to make sure you are ready to take on whatever risk we might see or volatility we might see in the next coming months up to march 29. matt: joining us now, the chief market analyst. lessiced you were concerned about her no deal brexit, which is why i wanted to talk to you. is there a higher likelihood we could have no brexit et al.? -- at all? >> it is certainly something i think has changed in the last 48 opinion of the european commission's active -- advocate general that the u.k. could unilaterally revoke article 50. for me, that is a significant game changer. i certainly think it gives encouragement to remainers with respect to voting down the deal in the u.k. parliament next tuesday, so i cer

"ext, "bloomberg: surveillance with tom keene and francine lacqua. esident of ukraine. don't miss that exclusive interview at 8:00 p.m. london time. ♪ n time. ♪ . . francine: mixed signals. the rally in risk assets comes to a halt. a section of u.s. treasuries flipped for the first time in more than a decade. does this mean a recession is on the way? another brexit hurdle for theresa may. her government may be content by not publishing legal advice. unilaterally boosting the pound. welcome to bloomberg

welcome to "surveillance," i'm francine lacqua in london. these are your markets.

matt: that was bank of england governor mark carney speaking to bloomberg's francine lacqua. bloomberg terminal users can and iraq with the charts that they see here on bloomberg television. just type gtv on your terminal. you can browse the recent charts we brought up, catch up on key analysis, and save the charge for future reference -- charts for future reference. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it's unlikely powell would get fired. that would be unprecedented. nothing is off the table with trump. but it would be unprecedented. it would have severely negative implications because one would always question the independence of the fed. >> starting when the democrats take over the house, we have a glimpse of what that relationship will be like. they didn't want to look at him in the eye in the oval office. so, it's going to get uglier from now on. >> that leads us into uncharted territory. i would think on a fundamental basis, markets are looking at good value. on a political risk basis, don't know yet. >> we've got risk permeating at every corner of the globe and that doesn't p

that was the ceo of rbs francine lacqua. an exclusive conversation. small businesses are not prepared to read the risk of recession is rising. people don't really understand the ramifications. the word, i think, is chaos. he described renegotiating with the u.k. parliament. is it chaos? >> i certainly echo the comments of russ mcewing. investment has slowed dramatically as the uncertainty is there. term decisions, people continue to invest. that is logical. anything, basically five years out, the short answer is people are saying, i'm going to step back until i have greater clarity. i get the same message back. it is not a great deal. ort is better than no deal total uncertainty. always call it at the moment. the evidence is already here. if we don't know, we are not going to deploy. you wanted toart look at. ftse local, the lowest since the of the brexit. positions -- >> uninvestable is total nonsense. investing is finding good as mrs.. even in difficult times, you can find good businesses. the point of this chart is to show the effect of sterling. i

nejra: that was agustin carstens , speaking to francine lacqua.have recently seen a mixed picture for economic growth. the u.k. posted positive growth in line with expectations. france sides final reading revised downwards. what germany shrank for the first time since 2015 on weak exports and a tanking auto sector. is europe still on the right track? or could we see further weakness next year? for more, we are by a jamie murray and simon french is still with us. jamie, good to have you with us. let me put the question to you this way. is the eurozone economy weaker than the ecb things? jamie: i think so. i think the forecast is hopelessly optimistic. it is researching backup 2.5%. i think those hopes can be dashed. does that mean they are not going to lift rates? obviously not. the fact is that which growth is picking up substantially and even the growth is going to slow , they have come a long way. a lot of slack has been absorbed. unemployment is that the precrisis levels. focusing purely on wages, which they have of course, there is a case for