options there's a big tension building up in many communities and cities are simply fed up the german treasury has admitted that in the last year alone more than twenty two billion euros would needed to accommodate these one point five million migrants and this is of course a large sum of money to try to explain this to millions of germans who are living on the breadline having two jobs and trying very desperately to make ends meet you're watching r t still to come for you thousands of people in the netherlands have been protesting against the environmental impact of big corporations in the country we'll have a look at that in detail just after the break. the war hawks sell you on the idea that dropping bombs brings police to the chicken hawks forcing you to fight the battles that. the new socks for the tell you that be gossiped a couple of miles. off the bat as they tell you all and i like. all the hawks that we all have our good luck. hello again the dutch city of groningen is home to one of europe's richest gas fields but locals there are concerned about the environmental impact they blame

options there's a big tension building up in many communities and cities are simply fed up the german treasury has admitted in the last year alone more than twenty two billion euros were needed to accommodate these one point five million migrants and this is of caught a large sum of money to try to explain this to millions of germans who are living on the breadline having two jobs trying very desperately to make ends meet. now violence intensified in afghanistan this weekend where more than thirty people are three dead in an overnight seated a hotel in afghanistan's capital of kabul according to reports citing security officials authorities put the death toll at nineteen including a high ranking afghan diplomat and fourteen foreign nationals most of them the employees of a local airline all six of the attackers were killed the taliban claims it was behind the assault. now people in the northern dutch city of groningen going fighting against the government's failure to act on warnings and cut back gas production citizens there blame corporations for numerous the quake that have hit the area the

options there's a big tension building up in many communities and cities are simply fed up the german treasury has admitted that in the last year alone more than twenty two billion euros were needed to accommodate these one point five million migrants and this is of caught a large sum of money to try to explain this to millions of germans who are living on the breadline having two jobs and trying very desperately to make ends meet further violence hence the afghan capital kabul we'll bring you all the details after this break. we have a great we need to strengthen before the freefall. to keep it back. in one thousand nine hundred two that's more qualified for the european championships at the very last moment no one believed in us but we won and i'm hoping to bring some of that winning spirit to the r.c.t. . recently i've had a lot of practice so i can guarantee you that peter schmeichel will be on the best form since my last world. thousand old you. know left left left more or less ok stop that's really good. welcome back to the program at least one person has reportedly been killed and two o

options there's a big tension building up in many communities and cities are simply fed up the german treasury has admitted that in the last year alone more than twenty two billion euros were needed to accommodate these one point five million migrants and this is of caught a large sum of money to try to explain this to millions of germans who are living on the breadline having two jobs and trying very desperately to make ends meet thousands of people in the netherlands protest against the environmental impact of big corporations in the country that story and plenty more coming up after this break. manufacture consent to public wealth. when the ruling class is protect themselves. with the fine. be that one percent. we can all middle of the room. he. joined me every thursday on the alex simon show and obviously to get asked of the world of politics sports business i'm show business i'll see you there. welcome back to the program deposed president carlos proved a man has arrived in the danish capital despite the risk of him being extradited back to spain to face charges just one hour after landin

options there's a big tension building up and many communities and cities are simply fed up the german treasury has admitted that in the last year alone more than twenty two billion euros would needed to accommodate these one point five million migrants and this is of course a large sum of money to try to explain this to millions of germans who are living on the breadline having two jobs and trying very desperately to make ends meet. national still to come thousands of people in the netherlands have been protesting against the environmental impact of big corporations in the country but have a look at. just up the bright. lights of many clubs over the years so i know the game inside out. the ball isn't only about what happens on the pitch for the final school it's about the passion from the fans it's the age of the super manager. and spending twenty million. it's an experience like nothing else because i want to share what i think what i know about the beautiful game great so what more chance for. six minute. here's what people have been saying about rejected and this is a full on. the only show

options there's a big tension building up in many communities and cities are simply fed up the german treasury has admitted in the last year alone more than twenty two billion euros were needed to accommodate these one point five million migrants and this is of caught a large sum of money to try to explain this to millions of germans who are living on the breadline having two jobs trying very desperately to make ends meet. international still to come thousands of people in the netherlands have been protesting against the environmental impact of big corporations in the country but have a look at that in more detail just after the break. join me every thursday on the alec simon show and i'll be speaking to guest in the world of politics sports business i'm show business i'll see you then. the we have a great team but we need to strengthen before the freefall world cold and better than a legend to keep it so it's at the back. in one thousand nine hundred two that must qualify for the european championships at the very last moment no one believed in us but we won and i'm hoping to bring some of th

options there's a big tension building up in many communities and cities are simply fed up the german treasury has admitted in the last year alone more than twenty two billion euros were needed to accommodate these one point five million migrants and this is of caught a large sum of money to try to explain this to millions of germans who are living on the breadline having two jobs and trying very desperately to make ends meet you're watching at international still had this morning a siege in afghanistan has left dozens of people dead including foreign is we'll have the details on a story present this to just after the break. here's what people have been saying about rejected in the us actually pull on. the only show i go out of my way to. the really packed the park. is the john oliver of our two year marriage is good to see we are apparently better than to see people you've never heard of love back to the night i broke the world bank very. seriously send us an e-mail. welcome back. violence intensified in afghanistan base weekend where more than thirty people are feared dead in an overnight si

options there's a big tension building up and many communities and cities are simply set up the german treasury has admitted that in the last year alone more than twenty two billion euros were needed to accommodate these one point five million migrants and this is of course a large sum of money to try to explain this to millions of germans who are living on the breadline having two jobs and trying very desperately to make ends meet therefore my cats and president has arrived in tandem mark even though he may be extradited back to spain a story and plenty more coming up after this break. thank you. when all the trophies seemed wrong in one old roll just don't hold. me to the world that you get to shape out this day to come out to it and in games from it because betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground. here's what people been saying about reject. me always show i go out of my way to watch you know what is there really. is the john oliver of our two year marriage is going to say we are very much better than. the see people you've never heard of. jack

options there's a big tension building up and many communities and cities are simply fed up the german treasury has admitted that in the last year alone more than twenty two billion euros would needed to accommodate these one point five million migrants and this is of caught a large sum of money to try to explain this to millions of germans who are living on the breadline having two jobs and trying very desperately to make ends meet washing out internationalists just gone a quarter past ten in the morning here in moscow still to come for you this hour siege in afghanistan has left dozens of people dead including foreigners we have the details and other stories to come just after the break. everybody i'm stephen bob. taft hollywood guy you suspect every proud american first of all i'm just george bush in our view to say this is my buddy max bemis financial guru where he's a little bit different i've harvested. the windows up with all the drama happening in our country i'm shooting the good have fun every day americans. and hopefully start to bridge the gap this is the great american people which

german for free. at the. u.s. treasury secretary stephen mention has arrived in davos saying what we can expect from the u.s. delegation at the world economic forum. it's really all about economic growth opportunities to and about free and fair trade a lot of we're looking forward to a very careful. now you'll be soon jointed by u.s. president to donald trump but before he leaves he orders penalty tariffs for some key imports from asia. and it looks like women have the upper hand in davos our correspondent explores the gender gap life in the swiss. and without a welcome to w. business gender equality has emerged as a top issue in doubles with canadian prime minister justin trudeau saying if you want to fix your economy employ women our team and spend the day talking to the top female officials there and ask them for their solutions in closing the gender gap. no matter how you look at it there are still far more men than women and davos but something's changing and not just the numbers the forum is discussing topics like ha

treasuries and german bunds remain around 200 basis points.wet of the have seen this asset allocation switch. half of the paper was bought through the qe paper from foreign investors. domestic institutions of not the natural sellers of german bunds. it's been foreign investors. david: we are waiting for the beginning of this news conference in frankfurt, germany at ecb headquarters. mario draghi has sat down to let's listen in. -- so let's listen in. >> ladies and gentlemen, let me wish you a happy new year. the vice president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today's meeting regarding the council which was also attended by the commission vice president. based on our regular economic and monetary analysis, we the interestep rates unchanged. we continue to expect them to remain at the present levels for an extended period of time and well past the horizon of our asset purchases. regarding no standard monetary policy measures, we confirm that our net purchases at the new monthly p

they said, forget treasuries which are important that there is the pricing of german boots.s the impact this has on markets, is this more in german boots then in treasuries? jonathan: no, because they tend to drag everything up. there is a lot more spare capacity in the eurozone. inflation pressures are much lesser. there are pipeline pressures coming through in the united states. think they do. tom: i showed francine a chart of real wages going down and down and down with the sterling adjustment and higher inflation. do you just assume better wage growth? in this recovery? jonathan: i don't think we can do anything about wage growth's. we are talking about the phillips curve being more flatter. tom: it is even more than that. it is getting power back. and i see no medication of that, do you? jonathan: not yet. if we look at the normally reliable indicators of wage growth, there are difficult these of hiring people and filling jobs, they are suggesting that we will see some sign of wages growth picking up and the labor market is the most tight. probably not in the euro zone

german bund. as for u.s. treasuriesntering a very interesting zone because as you are aware, for many institutions -- >> don't stop. that was good timing. jean will stick around and we will be talking about -- ♪ we are 30 minutes and he are trading day. let's get your top headlines from the bloomberg. shares in asia follow american shares lower. european stocks get a negative start. bunds trade higher despite weakness in the treasuries market. the french economy delivers its best annual performance in six years. data from the whole euro area are expected to confirm growth at a 10 year high later this morning. how long can the ecb continue its expansionary policy? and the short seller the road the steinhoff drop finds a new market in "bloomberg markets: .he european open -- capitec perring joins us for an exclusive interview. welcome to "bloomberg markets: the european open." i'm matt miller in berlin alongside guy johnson in london. guy: 30 minutes into the trading day. let's talk about where the markets are. in aggrega

you can see treasury yields moving up 2.71% and the german five-year blend year to -- bund yield overitory for the first time since 2015. all of this supporting the dollar on the margin. what will happen with the eco-data? this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." we are just moments away from economic data dropping and the story today, higher bond yields, stronger dollar, weaker equity market. that kind of sums it up as rising yields in the u.s. and europe finally take a point -- bite at equity markets. you can see what we are talking about in terms of the rise of treasury yields and the german bund yield positive for the first time since 2015 as the dollar finally gained a little bit of steam to read the data is out. a couple of things we're looking at. personal income coming in stronger than estimated at .4% for december. personal spending in line with estimates, .4%. november was revised higher as people ended up spending more. data, core pce month on month up .2%. year on year, that level means 1.5% in line with estimates. a stronger personal spending rates sort

are you more worried about a repricing of treasuries? or of german bonds?o one really talks about them at the moment but if that gets repriced quite widely, it could have huge implications. we think there are more of sides for yields in germany than in the u.s.. it hase ecb steps back, been the main bar in town. once they are no longer on the table, maybe in 2019, i think that puts them outside. in a slightly broader sense to, the market is going to take its cue from fundamentals but also from how quickly central banks adjust. we saw a ripple through the bond market. those were on concerns of the japanese might be less committed to the target. i think that was a little bit of a warning that if the ecb or to taper sooner and contemplate a rate hike sooner, and the bank that'sn so reasons, really the trigger for a bigger adjustment. butjust in those markets all parts of the curve. francine: is that coordinated action or just the consequent of things? larry: highly unlikely. central banks court night very rarely and usually only in extreme situations. francine

treasury yields, two-year with german bunds.e not but. -- have not budged. tom: the president tweaking on election dynamics and we will get to that with kevin cirilli and a bit. our esteemed guest on your american labor economy. this is the most optimistic chart i have or john silvia has at wells fargo. this is population adjusted jobless claims. the blue in the middle is the boom of the 1990's and we have an equivalent boom under one standard deviation of nirvana over a dearth of claims, a nearly fully employed, employee will america feared -- america. john silvia knows this, the chief economist at wells fargo securities. john hermann yesterday published as analysis, forecasts to 3.1% unemployment rate. is it feasible we could drive under 4% and get to those levels? that is the fed prepared for a quite as an like unemployment eisenhowerard unemployment rate? john: we have a sub 4% unemployment rate. tom: is jerome powell prepared? john: the fed will have a challenge, the model is an incredibly low unemployment rate relative to

german boones, after this, the curve flattened. if you are worried about a steepening, or you are positioning for a steepening in the u.s. treasury market, you want the curve to steepen, you don't want it to flatten, but it did. anyone out there with steepeners in the u.s. will be confirmed at the curve did not steepen. jonathan: i was going to save it for later but i will go with it now. versusead on bunds treasuries is wide and gets a lot of attention on the two yada yada. something that does not get much curve is is the bund twice as distinct as the treasury curve. what is the story there? in a position where the ecb is downshifting their purchases, well telegraphed, everyone understands this. that is the first of normalization process. ant will perhaps be to increase in deposit rates and further increase in the refi rates that the ecb has. first the curve steepen's and then will eventually flatten. it is already flattening, that's what's interesting. jonathan: what is your view? priya: to the extent that the ecb will raise rates rather than reduce purchases. quickly,ctually taper they stop buying. if they stop reinvesting, th

german economic engine plows on. i have got this chart, which is u.s. treasury yields versus european and japan average yields. u.s. keep rising relative to the euro areas. this is a story through 2017 and into the start of this one. as we see the stories about investors changing their mind about exposure they want to have, does this shine a light more on eurozone debt? eric: the big challenge in europe is clearly the kind of returns people are stirring to experience in the bond market. for most of the last five to 10 years, the yield maturity on bonds has not been be returned you have received, because yields have kept going lower. european bonds have been delivering u.s. style returns. what has happened in the last 12 months is you are getting what you are paying for, which is virtually no return or negative return. market, the bond ,afety part of it, the court the german, french, the european part of the bond market is vulnerable to any reversal and policy or continued cyclical economic strength. ultimately it is about fiscal sustainability, which is a function of growth. you could see spread compression. you ha

treasuries. do you worry about the repricing of german bonds? what does that mean for europe? ebrahim: yes. some of our conversations with clients, people would have thought that mispricedds are even more than treasuries. clearly facing risks ,hat he will see at a minimum at a drift. the exchangeat rate will be potentially more significant in terms of the effect on inflation than a smaller tantrum on the exchange rate side. but, again, turning points are difficult to control for central banks. the ecb will think go out of its way to try to pin down the expectations of interest rates to prevent the sharp rise in interest rates, including but not limited, the .und yield tom: a lot of our viewers in the united states aren't aware of is the improvement in unemployment rate. the on up limit rate of poland from 20% down to 14% and now down to a stunning 6.6%. europe, can you is over?euro-sclerosis it is dead? ebrahim: i wouldn't go that far. what a lot of our conversations boom exceeding the crisis. it is a significant progress taking place over the last few years, including that is down one perc

treasury selloff now, is it a buy or 3% coming? robert: buy. jack: 3% coming. marilyn: 3%. jonathan: european cocos had an enormous year last year. german anchored on a 10-year. do you buy ten-year german bunds or european cocos? robert: stay with the spread. i would take the cocos if i had to. marilyn: cocos. jonathan: the federal reserve, we know sometime soon they will hike and probably hike again. next week, decisions from the european and the bank of japan. the ecb starting to scale back qe, some conversations in japan about the boj scaling things down as well. who is the first to hike? the boj or the ecb? robert: that is -- jonathan: we have to go. robert: ecb. jack: ebc. marilyn: ebc. -- jonathan: you have been great, to get your thoughts on the market. jack, robert and marilyn. from new york, that is it for us, we will see you next week. this was "real yield" and this is bloomberg tv. ♪ ♪ scarlet: this is bloomberg "etf iq." ♪ scarlet: with interest rates creeping higher, the flow of money for high-yield debt has taken a detour. state street is losing ground to blackrock when it comes to new cash. how they plan to get back on tr

treasuries. you will see -- you are starting to see capacity across and within europe. even italy is starting to see a lot of big improvements in the employment market. in thehe germand 50's or 60's is the wrong level. that should be 90 or 100. that will take a lot more attention than a trickle upwards in the u.s. 10-year to the 3% level. lisa: there could be a potential violent unwind? luke: yes, very much so. mario draghi was telling you yesterday we will stop buying this stuff in september. if the bank of japan stops or starts to stop their program as well, that is a risk factor for the european bonds, not u.s. bonds. lisa: rachel, how much do you look at the yield curve when making credit decisions? how much do you say, this indicates a falling down. that should be bad for high-yield credit. rachel: absolutely. the investment great market is more correlated with treasuries. they react over short periods of time. they will inversely correlate. we saw that very much happening over the big rate rise over the last four or five months when we saw an immediate treasuries, five-year treasuries. you saw them move up by 60 basis points. high yield spreads came down by al

treasury selloff now, is it a buy or 3% coming? robert: buy. jack: 3% coming. marilyn: 3%. headhan: european cocoas -- had an enormous here last year. do you buy ten-year germanropean cocos? robert: stay with the spread. jack: cocos. marilyn: cocos. jonathan: the federal reserve, we know sometime soon they will hike and probably hike again. next week, decisions from the european and the bank of japan. the ecb starting to scale back qe, some conversations in japan about the boj scaling things down as well. who is the first to hike? the boj or the ecb? robert: that is -- jonathan: we have to go. robert: ecb. jack: ebc. marilyn: ebc. jonathan: you have been great, to get your thoughts on the market. marilyn.ert and from new york, that is it for us , we will see you next week. this was "real yield" and this is bloomberg tv. ♪ >> welcome to the best of bloomberg markets, with here are the major stories driving headlines from the region this week. as france reaches $70 a barrel for the first time in three years, goldman admits oil could outperform its forecast. spat with the uae, a head of the largest lender, assuming the standoff lasts forever. and international a

barrow's victory in the election and step down but two days later german left gambia and is now in the equitorial guinea in the past year the treasury has seized about fifty million dollars of assets and frozen eighty bank accounts linked to him the new government inherited a country in a state of economic ruin with a billion dollars of debt barrow's been trying to restore the faith of international lenders has also said how to tackle the legacy of human rights abuses on the jammer nine former intelligence officials have gone on trial and steps are being taken to set up a truth and reconciliation and repatriation commission young cooper there is a gambian politician and human rights activists he says some gambians don't want the government to compromise with members of the ousted german regime. a lot of families who whose loved ones have been persecuted and have been on justly treated on the previous government they are seeking redress of down and they want to see justice but that seems to be contrary to contradict in the tone of the government which is about reconsideration they want justice but the government wants to see a real c

german bunds, after this, the curve flattened. -- the curve flattened in germany. if you are worried about a steepening, or you are positioned for a steepening in the u.s. treasuryket, you want the bund curve to steepen, you don't want it to flatten, but in fact, it flattened. anyone out there with steepeners in the u.s. will be concerned that the curve did not steepen. jonathan: ok. so you took us there. and i was going to save it for later but i will go with it now. the spread on bunds versus treasuries is really, really wide, and it gets a lot of attention on the two-year space. but something that does not get a lot of attention is that the bund curve is twice as steep as the treasury curve. what is the story there, matt? matthew: we are now in a position where the ecb is downshifting their purchases, it has been well telegraphed, everybody understands this. that is the first step in a normalization process that will eventually lead, perhaps, to an increase in the deposit rates, and a further increase in the refi rates that the ecb has. the curve steepens and then will first, eventually flatten. it is already flattening, that's the interesting point here. jon

german chancellor angela merkel and to the french president. expected to make an address today and some members of the american delegation will be there to listen including u.s. treasury secretary steve he's already spoken at the conference in switzerland ahead of his boss president trump who is yet to arrive and due to speak on friday that he is what nugent had to say. it's really all about economic growth opportunities to invest in free and fair trade. so we're looking forward to a very careful and. gender equality has emerged as a top issue in davos with canadian prime minister justin trudeau saying if you want to fix your economy employ women our team and apple spent the day talking to the top female officials there and asked them for their solutions in closing the gender gap. no matter how you look at it there are still far more men than women and davos but something's changing and not just the numbers the forum is discussing topics like harassment power and injustice more intensely than ever before the seven high profile women co-chairing the world economic forum are a symbol of change but many women and davos feel things need to progress further and faster. we

treasury selloff now, is it a buy or is 3% coming? robert: buy. jack: 3% coming. marilyn: 3% coming. jonathan: ok, next question. european cocos had an enormous year last year. germanre anchored on a 10-year. do you buy ten-year german bunds or european cocos? robert: stay with the spread. jack: i guess i would take the cocos if i had to. marilyn: it is a tough call, but i will go with the cocos. jonathan: the federal reserve, we know sometime soon they will hike and probably hike again. next week, decisions from the european central bank and the bank of japan. the ecb starting to scale back qe. some conversations in japan about the boj scaling things down there as well. who is the first to hike? the boj or the ecb? robert: that is -- jonathan: we have to go. boj or ecb? robert: ecb. jack: ecb. marilyn: ecb. jonathan: guys, it has been great to catch up with you all and get your thoughts on the market. jack, robert and marilyn. from new york, that is it for us, we will see you next week. this was "real yield" and this is bloomberg tv. ♪ ♪ david: at one point, your father left your mother. ginni: it was sudden, and my mother found herself with four kids, no money. d

dovishness is priced into, for example, german bunds, you would expect you'll to rise, and to start to underperform markets like the u.s. we have seen u.s. treasurych higher, and that gap, i think, potentially narrows. you probably expect the euro to continue to gain over the medium term, so the dollar against the euro tends to move in pretty long cycles. we have had a long dollar bull market. it came to an end last year. it looks as though we are in the early up limbs of a recovery in of auro -- early uplands recovery in the euro. matt: very difficult question, but -- john: it is a process. we would argue that fair value is probably back towards the 130 , so it haslevel potentially got some scope to go. i don't think it will go there and a straight line. there are clearly unresolved issues in europe that can come back in the medium term. you know, it -- europe is running a large current account, surplus. the u.s. is running a large deficit. interest-rate and policy potentially moving in the right direction. it's got decent growth momentum am a etc.. i think there is a reasonable story medium-term for the euro. matt: john, it has been a pleasure.

at all >> oh, my gosh you no longer get to pay the german government money to hold your -- hold on to your money for five years i think that the treasurygone down in price a little bit too far and there's going to be a snap back that's going to be coming. i'm not seeing in my forecasting models, i'm not seeing the same degree of inflation that other people are seeing so i think that story has been over done. what we're seeing on the stock market with the two-day selloff is what we call a warning shot we've had this long, long period without any kind of correction and today if we closed here with the numbers we're showing we'd have a mcclellan oscillator down at minus 211 that we haven't seen in a long time. that shows you the real selling is going to come about four to eight weeks later after you have the warning shot over sold you usually go back up and exceed the prior highs i'm still looking for us to go up into late february, early march. bitcoin says february 10th but there's other things that say early march. march to august looking for a big selloff which is normal in the second year of a presidential term. usually when you have

treasuries for now. scarlet: currencies, the dollar weaker except for the young. -- yen, in europe, we are waiting for resolution to the arman -- the formation of german government. that is something we will discuss later on on what'd you miss? onre is also a meeting thursday. it is unlikely the ecb will make a firm commitment to withdraw the stimulus or slow down the stimulus too much. in terms of the pound, it is at a 19-month high versus the u.s. dollar. if we flip it around, it is green. if you do pound-dollar. the yen is weaker ahead of the boj meeting. they agreed to end the shutdown as we know what you are looking at a weaker yen. we should mention the nafta talks begin in montreal. it is a mixed impact when it turns -- comes to the canadian dollar and mexican peso. no real trend there yet. joe: let's look at those commodities. oil and gold and not much going on here today. just a little bit and oil up a little bit. those are today's market minutes. scarlet: we are awaiting netflix earnings for the fourth quarter. while we wait for the numbers across the bloomberg, let us bring in paul sweeney for more on what we might expect. the stock is near a record h

treasury climbg to the highest since may 2014. story of the day without a doubt, the germanive-year yield. government bonds reach reading. a little bit lower. down 0.2%. managemenths asset international representative joins us to look at markets and later on we speak to the india indonesia finance manager and we talk bitcoin. now, let's get straight to bloomberg first reviews. u.k. prime minister theresa may is fighting on numerous fronts is running as critics inside her government conservative party threatened to upend her plans for brexit and even her premiership. fire the want her to who is denying the quick break they want. even donald trump says he would've taken a "tougher stand with that you." rolling out calling for a second referendum aboard fresh pressure for new poll. jeremy corbyn spoke to bbc's andrew marx. mr. corbyn: what we have asked for demanded has been a meaningful vote in parliament. what happened with this bill was it was undemocratic. for a secondking opinion. francine: the ecb governor has qe ashe banks must end soon as possible. the head of central b

yield differential with the german yields, you would suggest , would reverse at some point, you would see some flows from europe back into u.s. treasuries but it is mostly the economic backdrop. francine: paul, you work on the mliv team. mliv and follow what is happening. have there been any schisms or big market moves that have been unexplained? if you are looking at the right differential. that is not a big feature for currency markets at this moment. it is all to do with long-term outlook for the region and what the ecb is going to do. we don't expect the ecb is going to change course until at least september. we are on a preset path for another couple months. because everybody knows that is going to come to an end, and then we start thinking about monetary policy, that is giving the currency the momentum. francine: talking about the breakeven in the u.s., this is another chart that i really like, a symbol u.s. 10-year breakeven rate. do you believe inflation is coming in the u.s.? >> inflation is coming. you can see wages on the rise. wages of young people is on the rise. wages on the lower end are on the rise. it is only logical wi

treasuries but across the board in fixed income. >> oksana, this latest move has been driven by the international picture. german from 0.3 to 0.6. almost doubled if this is led by the international picture, will this continue in the short term >> not at all surprising in terms of the german put. we've said for a while that german is one of the most overvalued assets in the world and a short, frankly, on that part of the curve is interesting. you can be short and actually earn carry, which is a first for investors everywhere in fixed income as a global economic picture grows, it's not unusual to see that. >> i'm going to move onto the dollar that's easier to understand. going straight down. a guest told us we're only in the first or second inning. >> right now we're not seeing any selling despite the u.s. selldown we could see u.s. dollar weakness, as we get into the phase where power takes over and we start talking about the tightening cycle, i think even though the bond markets could move lower, that the dollar is going to be limited. >> it is weird, right? i mean, the fact that interest rates in the u.s. are m

germans really care? matt: we have the inflation numbers, the banks coming out. look at futures, up across the board. this is the wei screen. significant gains on the continent, lighter gains here in london. the treasuryrade. this has been the saga of the past couple of days. after we saw u.s. treasuries go above 2.6% briefly and bill gross called for a bear market. in the other big names bond industry seemed to be positioned that way. you had the yield coming back down. right now, we are hovering around 2.55%. been oneit may have day for us to use that term bondsmegedden. yields downthe bond story produced an uptick in equity markets and the s&p. up .7% yesterday. and i had a very solid session. europe didn't do so well. -- airlines had a very solid session. 120.uro, back above you can see the moves as the more hawkish ecb minutes came out. today will be interesting, you have options expiring coming through. once that clears out, maybe there is more upside on the euro, plus we have this cpi data we need to factor in later. if that disappoints, that gives the euro another leg higher. let's look at the stories surrounding the commodities and give you an idea of what is going on and the bond markets. ir

treasury yields over 2.5 then i moved on to currencies. i said, you know, i'm going to go back and look at the german bund because it's just so bizarre.ke 44 basis points or something. our ten-year is 249. still on the continent yields that just are just glaringly low based on god knows what. >> target raised its fourth quarter guidance on stronger than expected holiday sales. full year 2018 and 2019 earnings guidance also came in above what the street was expecting target says that it expects to see a benefit from lower structural tax rates in the fourth quarter, but really, a lot of the guidance that they raised this time around was on better than expected microsoft saying sh customers with devices using amd chips with getting an unbootable state after installing recent windows security updates it is temporarily pausing updates to devices that have the impacted amd processors. microsoft says that the specks on the chips don't match documentation that was provided by amd >>> in other news north korea will send a delegation to the winter games in south korea. this comes after the country held the first formal taungs with the south in

german bonds. coming up up at 11 a.m. london time. the present we going to his outlook for the rest of the year. that includes china but also iran. midday, the former u.s. treasuryecretary joins us. towill also be speaking microsoft. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. in iran, the death toll has climbed. 20 people may not die to the demonstrations. in a rare share of displeasure with public leaders. the iraniandefended people's right to demonstrate. penceice president mike will visit each of this month. the confirmation came after israeli prime minister said it's included in the schedule. it's feeling that speculation. hence had plans to meet with egypt's president. the visit was postponed until this month. denmark's prime minister has the he wants to include government's plan for tax reform this year. , heis new year's speech said the tax cuts will make it more feasible to work, which will bring more people to the job market. prime minister has revived the debate about whether the company -- country can become a republic. the nation needs to have an honest, open discussion about the issue. becoming a republic would require a referendum in order to make