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greenspan -- jon grinspan. teacher.rator history he is author of "the virgin vote: how young americans make democracy popular." this is in washington, and tc it is about -- this is an washington, d.c. it is about 15 minutes. >> we have met jon in the past conventions where he has the fun job of collecting memorabilia for his organization, the smithsonian museum of history. he is the curator of national history there. that put you at the intersection history. and national we'll talk about your book but let's start with your collection. you told me have to make difficult decisions about what to keep to encapsulate a particular election. what times of the most robust? >> about 130,000 objects. residentialsses objects, campaign objects, flyers, torches, newsmakers, poster signs, whatever captures a political moment. with every collection we have to think, does this reflect this moment? if this is behind class in 100 years, will this help explain the moment? it is always a tough question. it makes you think. >> what

seenlearest evidence i've since the greenspan era that said it is happy with the continued course of inflation, willing to let it move above the 2% target and continue. think we need to say we do not know what is going on in the labor market. feds could be interpreted as we do not know what is going on. things i wasf the theck by in this report was number that took out the 2006 low. pointsa must 100 basis below where it was then. >> either, much like monetary policy, lower unemployment works on variable lag or there is no linear relationship between a lower unemployment and price levels. >> you go back to what has happened over the great financial crisis. on top of that, you have an escalation of globalization technology. structural forces seem to have taken a step higher at the same time. 2009 it was masked by that. that is the fed is grappling with. >> you think about the trading regime, we were talking about the goldilocks regime. we spent most of 2018 talking about whether we would break into a new regime. a reseller? -- are we still there? >> i think we are. mind is funnyy fed t

. >> two mentions of one word, the clearest evidence i have seen since the greenspan era. they're willing to move above that 2% target and continue on their merry way towards however many more hikes this year. two, possibly three. >> do we have to say we don't really know what's going on in the labor market in the united states? >> it could be interpreted as, we don't really know what is going on. i think one of the things i was really struck by by this morning's report was the u6 number took out the 2006 low, but pce is lower today than it was back then. >> something has changed. >> there's only two bank options. lower unemployment, or there is no linear relationship to begin with between lower unemployment and price levels. >> after the financial crisis, you have this event, but on top of that you have the escalation of technology and all the structural forces seem to have taken a step higher at the same time. 2010, 2011 was kind of masked by that. i think that is what the fed is grappling with. >> you think about the way it has been shake, we were talking about a goldil

two mentions of one word, the clearest evidence i have seen that the greenspan era said they are happy with the course of inflation, they are willing to move above that 2% target and continue on their merry way towards however many more hikes this year. jonathan: do we have to say we don't really know what's going on in the labor market in the united states? >> the fed's data dependency could be interpreted as we don't , really know what is going on. we are making it up as we go along, as the fellows curve get adjusted. i think one of the things i was really struck by by this morning's report was the u6 number took out the 2006 low, but pce is almost 100 basis points lower today than it was back then. jonathan: >> something has changed. >> there is only two options. lower unemployment, or there is no linear relationship to begin with between lower unemployment and price levels. jonathan: >> michael? you go back to what is happened after the financial crisis, you have this great deflationary event but on top of that you have an excavation of globalization technology and all the structur

we should be more like greenspan in our policy, relishing the delivered ok city.cott, have we been over for guidance? towe need a greenspanian era emerge? i think it's an important part of the communication strategy the fed has with the markets, as witnessed by their ability to raise rates over the last two years. it suggests that the good model going forward. i do think the terminal rate is a relevant part of the conversation for bond investors and equity investors. the terminal rate now sits just below 3%. what we suggest is as we move through time and as the economic picture continues to develop, the terminal rate could move .igher, above 3% as much as 50-75 basis points over time and that will be relative input for investors as we go through the next couple of quarters. anna: so when we look at the replicating what the fed is forecasting, do you think this is just a distraction from where you think we should be focused, which is the terminal rate? we should be focused further along the curve. i think it's less wereant in terms of where going in the longer run.

the defining economic event of the last 50 years was the 2008 financial crisis and is alan greenspanted, it was brought about in part because the fed did not do its job on regulation. i am concerned about your lack of background on regulatory issues and i am concerned about your unwillingness today to support strong capital standards for big banks. i will be following up with you. thank you. welcome to your family members, thank you both, it's a pleasure to meet you. vonnie: just listening to massachusetts senator elizabeth warren. questions for vice-chairman nominee rich clarida about stress testing. you can watch the entire event, use the terminal function live go. we have had some breaking news just this hour on rexall. seek growth longer for its oil and gas business in preparation for the global transition to cleaner energy because according -- according to a person familiar with the matter. well, the first of its peers to make this move. why rexall -- repsol? >> it is really demonstrating that companies are preparing for a world where they won't be able to go along with gas prod

. >> neil: even alan greenspan said as much who praises your book and the difference it made.ving said that, whether you anticipated that or not, i'm curious what you make of the donald trump comparison at the outset, that both were in their honey way rebellious figures in their party and in the system. carter, a different approach than donald trump. but it was jimmy carter that said donald trump, should he succeed with this north korean summit, he should get the nobel peace prize what do you think? >> look, i think the north korean summit is important and possibly historic. let's compare it with the camp david accords in the egyptian israeli treaty, which has lasted for 40 years. theres a lot of meetings for months. we knew the gaps that had to be filled at the summit. here the north korean summit has been done almost on the fly. now, what happened today to be very important with the meeting between secretary of state and mr. kim, the right-hand man of the supreme leader. it's important. it takes a lot of preparation and critically you have to know what the other side wants,

operational dissonance and rules of engagement they will think it is a romance novel written by alan greenspan and nobody will buy that. [laughter] so i decided i needed a more provocative name so i watch a lot of television i was watching a biography of elizabeth montgomery her alter ego on bewitched was serena so i became selena montgomery. >> what are the other races to watch to focus our attention? b make texas is very movable. he 17 the governors race down in florida the democrats lose by 70000 votes i am a big fan that is a winnable race and david garcia in arizona is a smart candidate coming close thing a statewide seat in arizona in 2014 this is his year to get it. i believe you have a governors race happening here in new york. [laughter] arizona is great i focus on the south and southwest those of the areas if we can convert if we start to flip the states consistently read but transitioning purple for a whil while, it will only happen because we talk people. that changes america. we have to remember 2016 did not happen because donald trump managed to convince more americans he was rig

greenspan was famous for deliberately opaque remarks -- me,ou think you understand you clearly didn'tht. bullard speaks in an exclusive interview. when you are predicting rate hikes when you don't know what the future is going to be is something we need to get out of the business of doing. be in going to restrictive territory, which is going to put downward pressure on inflation. do you want to do that when inflation expectations are hovering below targets? it means the market has a different view of the future than the fed. think we are in any danger sitting here that the yield curve -- sitting here today. the yield curve has a nice, upper slope, over the last 30 concerned i would be if we did not march into an immersion with our eyes being wide open. guy: james bullard speaking to kathleen hays. we need to talk about the dot curve, so we are now -- do we get much higher? >> i think this is the end of the move, rather than the beginning. we could do 3.25%. the problem the market is going to face right now, there is survey data, soft data, through the roof. everything is great and we

just a little bit of -- as one speaker mentioned, this used to be ron greenspan's volkswagen service department there. generally, i am in favor of small business and support small business. i think san francisco has long been successful and the unique thing we like about san francisco are all the different small unique businesses. to me, the real question is are we doing enough on this site? and for folks in this room that aren't here for other hearings, i hope you can understand the pressures that san francisco has and that we receive here and the department receives for trying to build more housing on all different levels. and so are we doing enough with this site? is the developer doing enough with this site? i wish we were here and actually quite frankly looking at a mixed use project. i don't think there would be very much opposition. i think to some degree, there would be a best of both worlds. we would probably be in favor unanimously with formula retail, and then also some units above or some other type of use. so is it really being wringed out and squeezed enough. interestin

. >> no, i'm saying we're not going to see a fed that does, for example, alan greenspan, i think, 16 consecutive 25-basis point rate hikes from '03 to '06, just in time to blow everything up in the following year we're not going to see something like that that escapes the notice of the executive branch it's important to understand, this is a president, whether you hate his policies, love his policies, his style, this is a president who lives and dies by every 100 points in the dow. they're watching it, celebrating it, more so than any president in american history, perhaps they're not going to have a fed that freelances and puts a target up like four rate hikes in the 96 five or six quarters and sticks to it if the data begins to deteriorate. >> i don't think it's necessarily trump. i think it's the data. if it's trump too, fine, i think it's the data. if the data comes in better, they'll raise. as they raise, to your point, it slows some things down rates will back down, oil will then back down, and then you have goldilocks. if they can do this kind of in a perfect scenario, which i

>> i have, yes alan greenspan had the same thing he talked to me about. >> he's 98 or something. >> you'resenator, stick around joe's got a lot more ailments. >> he's not 98, by the way >> he's as sharp as can be >> he is i mean, we can all aspire to be an alan greenspan at 93, 94, whatever he is >> the senator doctor is staying with us -- >> at break i've got one more question you >> a programming note for you, let me hurry through this. we will hear from steven mnuchin at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. just 45 minutes away when we come back, though, the china trade rhetoric pushing markets higher much more on crude after the break. meantime, check out the futures at this hour been sharply higher this morning on the china potential deal news dow looks like it is up by about 237 right now. sdp would open up by 16 and the naaq by 48 we'll be right back. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc this mercedes-benz ink a for under $34,000 looks like... ...think again... ...and...again. the 2018 cla and gla, both starting at under $34,000. lease the cla250 for $319 a month at your local mercedes-benz deal

alan greenspan said, quote, president carter anticipated many of the programs that his successor,ea ronald reagan, embrace pretty fostered major -- a fostered major deregulation of transportation, communication and banking and most importantly appointed paul volcker one of the most committed anti-inflation fighters to chairmanshipg of the federal reserve. stu eisenstadt succeeds in offering a balanced view of the carter presidency. splendid read. david h ignatius said this and said this and i know this will come out. called carter a smart come indecent but unlucky man in the white house. i was deputy secretary of the cabinet and i had a second row seat the first half of the carter presidency appeared at the white house bid of 1978 but stayed in touch. my late husband, sidney and i met in the roosevelt room and president carter present so with over 30 years of marriage. sidney served for a time on the carter center which has played a big role in the carter post president he and i will just note the post-presidency is not covered in the book but it's lasted for decades and so when you read t

every press conference or meeting, which i think is where we are at now, it is reminiscent of what greenspan did while the housing bubble kept inflating. we had a quarter of a point every meeting. the market understood it, they discounted it, the volatility was very muted, and they felt it was safe to just continue to push things to more speculative levels. for the time being, until something bites, that is the sort of environment we are in. scarlet: it is fueling complacency. michael mckee, jump in. what else have you looked at or what are your thoughts? michael: this was a very minor rewrite of this statement designed to make as p waves as possible, while acknowledging reality. the reality is, inflation, especially with commodity prices rising, will go over 2%, at least for a short time. the question for the markets is whether or not it will go high enough to force the fed to act a fourth time, or add more rate moves next year. a lot of arguments put forth by economists over the last couple days, that it will not happen. that we see no way to pressure at this point -- wage pressure at this

and neglect so in reading blurb about this book i want to note before we get along al a opinion greenspan said, quote -- president carter anticipated many of the programs that his successor ronald reagan embraced he fostered many -- major major deredlation of communication and banking and most importantly appointed paul one of the most committed and inflation fighters to the chairmanship of the federal reserve. stew skdzs in offering balanced view of the carter presidency and splendid read and david said this, and i know this thing will come up he called carter a smart decent but unlucky man in the white house. secretary of the cabinet and i had a second row seat first half of the carter presidency i left the white house at the end of 1978 and stayed in touch my late husband sidney and i met in the west wing and president carter credits himself with over 30 years of hearnlg. sydney served for a time on board of the carter center played a big role in the carter post presidency eni'll just note the post presidency is not covered inned book to it is lasted four decades so stew when you write

business income tax exemption rules of engagement, they will think it's romance novel written by alan greenspan and no one will buy it. [laughing] and so i decided that needed a more provocative name the sun a more romantic. i watch a lot of television i was watching a biography of elizabeth montgomery who played samantha on bewitch. her alter ego under which was serena. i don't really like that so i became selena montgomery. >> one more in the back. >> what are the other races to watch for? we are all in on your race. >> beto o'rourke in texas because texas is the removable. [applause] the governors races down in florida because florida loses, democrats lose florida by 70,000 post. i'm a big fan of andrew. that is a winnable race. david garcia in arizona is also a really smart candidate. he came close to flipping a statewide seat in arizona in 2014, and this is his year to get it. i think you guys have governors race happening here in new york. kirsten cinema at henderson is greater i focus on the south and southwest because those are the areas where if we can convert them to go back to the qu

cite the former chairman alan greenspan as saying, we are on the record as being vague about that. that is where we are on a committee right now. if you look at what different members have said publicly, they have hedged their bets about how the commission could behave in the future. that is certainly totally appropriate. i think we should be dependent moree data, taking on developments in the u.s. economy and the global economy, and then discussing that at the various meetings in deciding what to do. i would not want to prejudge how we will play this at the june meeting or the rest of the year. brainard, your colleague, give a speech today in new york. she said the fed would do gradual rate hikes from accommodative policy do something modestly above neutral. is there a risk in that? if that is what the fed is going to do, and it is -- is it the correct path? james: i have been arguing we are already a neutral today and if we start going up from here, we are going to turn restrictive, possibly in a situation where inflation has not made it all the way back to target yet. space,look

you talk to alan greenspan, you told me, it's on interest rates. is it reflected? seeing market pricing and i think the inflation numbers are not showing real pricing in the market. that's the problem with the way that they are measured, in old historical ways, not really reflecting the market today. that is why my thinking is that the interest rate increases here could be increasing more than what the market expect. and also not impossible to have 50 basis points. 25 points-- scarlet: versus 50 points? afsaneh: towards the end of the year, if possible. scarlet: what would be the catalyst for that? afsaneh: it's unemployment. if unemployment goes down even more, pressures increase in the market and inflation goes up after the what the market is acting right now. scarlet: how are you positioning your portfolio as a result? what allocation is hedge fund versus we haveasset? afsaneh: been increasing to private lending for the last year and a half, two years, with increased allocation to europe in the markets. is anamerican markets area where we have great relief among

. >> that sounds like greenspan's conundrum in the mid-2000s when we were trying to explain away why> if it inverts that's a huge deal people will be talking about recession either way >>> general electric having its worst day since november they cannot guarantee its 2019 dividend john flannery adding, they see no profit growth at ge power through 2020 we're also watching bit coin which hit the lowest level since mid april. speaking of bit coin tonight we'll be speaking with the president of coin base coin base number 10 on the cnbc disrupter list you'll want to tune in we want to make a note of netflix watching the market reaction, hitting an all time high in the last few minutes. >> we think that could be because of a. >> very influenced with the interest rates with a huge multiple it could be. >>> if you want to understand the impact of fort night you have to ask one of the analysts on the call he joins us with what he learned. >> could alexa soon be the queen of your castle what amazon is doing to make that a reality it's a hall of fame bust that was a big bust now there's an upd

industry because for the last 20-25 years, if you wanted money, it was there, whether it was the greenspan you know, what was done by bernanke or yellen, and now money supply is not growing. it's not growing because the fed is shrinking its balance sheet >> in terms of where to look in the opportunity spectrum of banks, do you prefer the big cap names, smaller caps, what's the best performing stocks >> the smaller cap stocks are killing big bank stocks in terms of performance, there's just no comparison whatsoever. in other words, if you look at the period from 2000-2017, you got, you know, mid-cap bank stocks, up 20% a year on average, big banks, biggest universal banks are down >> and give us some opportunities, top picks in the small cap space. >> well, you know, silicon valley bank, you know, a huge winner, companies like pimco, and the stocks have done well, some over last five years are up 25% to 30% in terms of price appreciation while the big huge banks sit on their butts >> touch on goldman sachs a little bit does it have some of the flexible aspects that the silicon valley banks

"how to beat your sister-in- law (at everything)" stars actresses melissa greenspan and michelle azarare real-life sisters-in-law. creators and writers susan cohen and sydnie suskind raised the budget on kickstarter, drew in such familiar faces as phil lamarr and suzy nakamura as guest stars, and are campaigning for creative arts emmys nominations in two categories. (nat)jennifer aniston for president? the actress is teaming with comedienne tig notaro for the netflix comedy series "first ladies." aniston will play the first female president of the united states, and notaro, who'll also co-write the series, will play the first lady. netflix says the show will "prove that behind every great woman... is another great woman." in hollywood, i'm david daniel. david daniel. (robin) still ahead on the kron four morning news... a former police commission president was honored one week after his sudden death. we'll have the details after the break. (robin) and here's a live look outside... at the bay bridge toll plaza. we'll be back with more of your kron 4 morning news after the break. commerc

arthur burns with smoke rings, where there was no conversation, and that our good friend, chairman greenspanthere was a little bit of discussion there. now we're like overinformation, ex ante, ex post. there's no way they got out in front of this debate. they got to wait for the cat, right? carl: absolutely the point they're trying to make, they're incorporating data into their forecast, so it does have the forward-looking element. it's not the reaction to the fed. tom: drag heat to delay. and i would say last week was a really important week for the ex ante, ex post ballet, and basically they had to go, oops, there's no inflation, right? carl: right. and they have to sect oni'll with the fact that we are seemingly are crossing through full employment, but we're not getting into consumer inflation yet. i think the fed has the markets right where we want them, because the fourth rate hike of this year, which would be -- tom: the red sox and yankees right where they want them. carl: the fourth rate hike, they got priced in at about 50% certainty. they can continue to kind of, you know, stay on

early tom: do we know -- do we need to go to arthur burns like rate increases and get away from the greenspan job done like burns years ago? carl: i do not think we can do that. they should have started raising interest rates years ago. long, theyed too cannot suddenly say, instead of going up 1% a year we will go up 2% a year. tom: i just like a 38's lift -- 3/8's lift to keep everybody employed. francine: they must then increase them more than expected if they are behind the curve, and as soon as the fed realizes, and whether they worry or not about the next downturn, you would expect them to beware, interest rates, in two years? comes inthe down turn the next year or two years, the fed is in a bad position because they will not be able to lower the interest rates to reverse the downturn. that is the worry. we have had a decade of super interest rates that have pushed asset prices to unsustainable levels. when they come down, it will pull the economy down, and the fed is not in a position to reverse it. tom: we are going to go from 40,000 feet. carl riccadonna flying over the trees, what am

remember alan greenspan telling all of us, let them do what they want to do. it doesn't matter. you can't interfere with the market. the market has all the answers. we found out who had the answers when it came out to bailing wall street. it was the american people. we are urging our colleagues to not vote for this. because it will be the american people who pay. not to mention people who live in manufacturing homes, who are going to be allowed to be charged more for their home choices, and it will open the door to racial discrimination, which has been proved time and time again. this bill is bad. vote no. the speaker pro tempore: the gentleman's time has expired. the gentlewoman from california reserves. the gentleman from texas is recognized. mr. hensarling: thank you, mr. speaker. i now yield a minute and a half to the gentleman from arkansas, mr. hill, the committee's majority whip, and the author of the amendment dealing with the volcker rule. the speaker pro tempore: the gentleman from arkansas is recognized. mr. hill: i thank the speaker. the i thank the chairman of the f

to raise on a quarterly basis by a quarter as a posed to what we experienced back when chairman greenspanhere they would raise and lower by substantial apples. that's manageable. we can manage that but the stockmarket adjusting to rising interest rates. we will get to a point where people who are next whichtys to try to get yield, that i can now transition over into fixed income because they're getting that yield there >> would you finally be would you finally embrace this market, you know you are an mna guy you love it. you love talking about it. if that happens, can i write it down you will finally embrace the current economic environment in the stockmarket? will do you that we won't talk about trains leaving the station? >> the economy -- >> i know they are but they're in sync. there is a reason that earnings are up 23% or whatever and you got repatriation i'm just in advance of this happening, when you finally get what you want, which is all this mna, will you embrace it will you take away - >> it's a crazy mna environment. >> all right okay wanted to clear that up. >> can i maybe one

greenspan asked at the fed decades ago. for how long can you have a goldilocks environment run?pressure -- this does not argue at all for monetary policy to change. the only thing we might see is the further unwinding of qe. but when you think of traditional monetary policy tools like interest rates, i do not see that the ecb would start hiking interest rates anytime soon, because there is no reason for them to destroy the current goldilocks environment. caroline: how these extraordinary measures continue and history repeat itself. brzeskiresky -- carsten , glad to have you joining us from a sunny amsterdam. still ahead, president donald trump's tweet on sunday triggered speculation that his meeting with kim jong-un could be back on track. ♪ caroline: it is time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news now. there is a report the british government may begin selling parliaments remaining stake in royal bank of scotland as soon as this week. the sale could be delayed by larger stock market issues. the u.k. still owns 70% of rbs.