haidi: liz truss.hen it comes to testing the volatility we have seen across gilts and the pound. we saw pound rising in early trading. some bolstered expecting to see more of the prime ministers package to be reversed. take a look at futures. german docs futures looking a little -- german dax futures looking wan. trimming some of the early rally. investors watching what is going on in the u.k. u.k. financial markets getting fresh opportunities soon to pass judgment on liz truss's economic program without the bank of england to offset any turmoil. david joins us now. as we see this tug of war play out between the government and the bank of england, what are the levels you're watching for when it comes to trading in the pound as well as gilts? >> the pound -- 140.95. that was the recent high. we are still quite away from that. that is a good sign for gilts. you expect them to rally as well. the big worry for gilts is even with this initial rally, you have u.k. cpi on wednesday. that is supposed to go up

haidi?look at the trading way comes the first hour of trade in what is a holiday kind of week in the market in australia. a number of things including in sydney are off for a public call it a good a slack session at the moment except for of course games across energies on those opec production cut expectations. we expect to see that. we've seen that drop the course of the day. the rbn said that the rba is exciting 50 basis points. market expectations, likely the last of the big moves from both of the potential banks in this tightening cycle. the market open for japan is next. and we will look ahead to the start of trading in tokyo. this is bloomberg. ♪ hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. being a veteran, the transition from the military into civilian life causes a lot of stress. i ate a lot for stress. golo and release has helped me with managing that stress and allowing me to focus on losing weight. for anyone struggling with weight and stress-related weight gain, i recommend go

haidi: u.k. in parliament after scrapping most of what was left of the economic program. it's in bloomberg fx and rates strategist david for how currencies have been reactive. forcing the uptick with the pound. is it a u-turn if you have half a dozen of them? if you see u.k. assets, -- reporter: assets have recovered, not fully recovered. if the 10 year and 30 year. it's to be expected given the big u-turn. that's not a full u-turn. they're still going to go through. there is a $36 billion pound, budget hole these to be filled in. will weigh on sterling and u.k. gilts moving forward. the key thing is not only inflation data, also the budget speech, what is outlined in how much he can balance the books or not. the bank of england and markets looking for 100 basis point hikes still. shery: across asia, where watching the japanese yen. little bit of strength, but it's very close to getting to the 150 level against the u.s. dollar. reporter: that's a psychological level. to justin while the dollar wa

haidi: that is it for daybreak australia.ave the start of trading in sydney in a few minutes time. daybreak asia as next as we countdown to the thursday session. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: more ahead on daybreak. bloomberg. ♪ haidi: let's take a look at how fx is trading -- a little weakness when it comes to the aussie dollar and the kiwi. millions have made the switch from the big three to the best kept secret in wireless: xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year with the fastest mobile service. and now, introducing, the best price for two lines of unlimited. just $30 per line. there are millions of happy campers out there. and this is the perfect time to join them... add a line to your existing plan, or see for yourself how easy it is to save by talking to our helpful switch squad at your local xfinity store today. kathleen: you are

haidi: more u.s. bank earnings, why odeon capital group believe you should sell shares in goldman sachs and morgan stanley. then we will speak with shana orczyk sissel, we speak about the high probability of staying defensive next year. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> anybody sitting on debts is going to be in trouble because of the higher interest rates. as interest rates are going to 9%. they will have to keep on raising rates. simply because if inflation is 8%, you have to raise rates higher than inflation which means 9%. that will go out the window if the cpi goes down. i do not see that happening anytime soon. haidi: mobius capital mark mobius there. i recession is a high probability in 2023, she continues to position defensively. shana is the ceo of spotlight capital management. shana: large-cap quality names are i want to be. as you pointed out, i am predicting that probably of an recession in 2023 is high. since 1929 if you look at the presidential cycles there has never been a recession that started

haidi: that is john. in the meantime, the australia deficit is less than half of the level anticipated by the previous administration. bolstered by certain commodity prices. the labor government has the first budget later on tuesday. we keep hearing that this is going to be no surprise in the budget. the recent floods have changed estimates a little bit. what are we expecting? >> the prime minister says this budget is going to deal with cost-of-living pressures by not add to inflation. sounds like quite the balancing act. we have heard of a few announcements in the pipeline like increased spending on childcare and local media reporting and a plan to build a one million -- and a plan to build one million new homes. that could be pushing up the cost of building supplies. we heard from the treasury before he headed into the budget lock up, that is like passing behind the moon, we will not hear him again until he delivers his speech to the house later on tonight. he identified inflation as the primary problem

haidi: good morning, welcome to daybreak australia. anabel: we are counting down to asia's major market open. shery: the top stories this hour. u.s. stocks rebounded after the war september in two decades, the treasury yields falling, easing fears that the fed will over tighten monetary policy. haidi: one jumbo hike before slowing the pace of tightening, as they balance inflation again is a quick hit to growth. shery: the u.k. chancellor may change plan after the back down on the tax cut for top earners. u.s. futures looking higher, earnings in the asian session after the s&p 500 saw the best since july. the fed may not over tighten, on manufacturing numbers. we have some low fund positioning, extreme pessimism coming off of a rebound, around a 30 level, back to those levels after the impact levels last week. our treasuries are rally across the curve. he also had a weaker time, helping with wti prices. we see a little bit of pressure in the asian session. this is after 5%, the opec-plus meeting, the expectation is a cut and supply conc

haidi: that is obviously sector specific.ours looking at the ubs call when it comes to automakers. some of the worst performers. do you think that demand story has been fully apprised of across a lot of the consumer names? >> i'm not sure it has been and i do think at the broad market level there is still some risk because technology is still the big dominant driver of the market levels. those multiples are still fairly high. i think we are seeing a shift from growth names into value names that takes some pain and rotation and time. i do think we could see certain sectors pulling the markets down. in the meantime i think value can make sense in here. we are at least close to being able to buy that. we are not doing it for our own clients. what we are doing is laddering in short-term -- flat is the new up in our book for the rest of the year. haidi: the treasury closure is quite interesting. i was looking at how you are adjusting your portfolio because there are concerns about how we are seeing signs of dysfunction and liquidi

haidi: that was gm's ceo.: tune in to hear more from the newsmakers, get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. listen through the app or bloombergradio.com. plenty more ahead, this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: a quick check of the business flash headlines, microsoft shares slumped after the weakest quarterly revenue growth in five years. cells were throttled by the surging dollar and a drop in sales of windows software to pc makers. cells for its cloud services were 42%, below expectations. alphabet's revenue and earnings fell short of expectations as he search business showed signs of weakness. about $57 billion, third quarter sales, missing projections. the net income was less than the estimate of one dollar $.25 a share. shery: a deep dive into the crypto story, where it came from , let it all means, and why it matters. the depth when it comes to digital cash and how this behaves with trust and distrust in who keeps your money. we have seen bitcoin trading higher

haidi: asian stocks may tumble. fx traders are bracing for possibly an intervention, the currency tumbling toward a key psychological level. kathleen: financial markets had to deliver the their verdict on the u.k. prime minister's economic reset she fights to save her premiership. annabelle: this is the start of another trading week in asia and this will be the first chance for traders to react to xi jinping's speech at the weekend, the two hour address at the national party congress highlighting key areas, specifically the environment. tech. national security. some strategists are saying what happens, this is basically china's answer to the nasdaq and we saw it rallying into the party congress on sunday. otherwise, covid zero, the maintain infosys on very strict virus measures. life over the economy. that will hit trading sentiment. the property sector as well, one to watch. mixed signals in that sector. let's look at the set up across asia. china a big driver of sentiment in the region. we've got new zealand in th

haidi: the former u.k.ellor of the exchequer says the most important thing is to calm the markets. >> we have seen the power of the markets over the past few weeks and i think chancellor jeremy hunt was getting on top of that, putting together a package that would have been reassuring to the markets. what we must not do is anything which signals to the markets more chaos, instability, and uncertainty ahead. then the new government has got to outline a clear growth land. liz truss -- liz truss's plan was based on cut taxes by borrowing and magically that gives you growth. it doesn't matter whether that's credible because the markets are not going to allow it. there needs to be an alternative growth plan. how does written earn its living in the post exit energy crisis? my own view is we have to be prepared to take a few risks and articulate a role for the city of london, for the financial services industry. that may mean being prepared to take some calculated risks as we put britain in the lead with areas of

haidi. haidi: we do have asian pmi's crossing the bloomberg now.w we are faring at the moment given all of the uncertainties broadly facing the region particular to when it comes to headwinds coming from fed tightening and the stronger dollar. thailand, we are seeing a real pullback when it comes to the manufacturing pmi's for thailand. we did really see -- potentially, we saw some moves from the tie central-bank when it comes to the macro side for property but we are starting to see that impact of potentially that slowdown. 51.6, slowing from 50 of 5.7. that picture of slowing down continues for taiwan as well. a little bit of softening when it comes to malaysia. don't under the 50 level, very much so separates growth from contraction. in vietnam, staying above the 50 level but only just. 50.6, slowing from 52 and more broadly around southeast asia, weakness coming through for indonesia as well. japan and south korea are quite is -- quite interesting. for south korea, just sort of another indicator to feed into what the bank of korea is grappling

haidi: they do so much. let's go to vonnie quinn now with the first word had nines. >> vladimir putin has lashed out at the u.s. and europe over his war in ukraine as he heaps praise on saudi arabia, and reiterated support for china's claim to taiwan. putin casts russia as a champion of conservative values as he accuses the u.s. and its allies of seeking global domination. he denied intending to use nuclear weapons in ukraine. the pentagon's national defense strategy has rejected some limits on using nuclear weapons. the document does not rule out there use in retaliation to a non-nuclear strategic threat to the u.s. or its forces overseas. it cites china and russia as strategic competitors and potential advertisers. president biden campaigned on only using nuclear weapons to deter or retaliate against nuclear attack. the u.s. expects a deal with global allies to deliver to production equipment to china. that would expand washington's efforts to keep cutting edge semiconductor technology away from beijing an

haidi: we saw that hit the tesla stocks. what are investors worried, particularly when it comes to this concern about elon musk being distracted or spread too thin? >> he it i -- he is already running to companies, now hugh -- now you throw twitter into the mix. this is a person who has a ton of commitments, a ton of distractions going on. if you are a tesla investor, of course you do not want to see the person who was supposed to be getting the cars over the line every quarter while dealing with all the headaches that come with running twitter. running twitter is not an easy job. there's a reason they have had multiple ceos over the last decade. why jack dorsey left. this is not an easy company to run. then, you add in all of the issues they had around policy and free speech and politics. suddenly this becomes a headache of a job. i'm sure if you are tesla investor, that is not what you want elon musk spending his time doing. shery: looking forward to anymore fireworks before the october 28 closing date. kurt wagner with th

haidi: let's bring in our strategist for more.route starting to take shape, what does that mean for the overall risk picture? >> you can already see we are starting to get a bit of an old school divergence between equities and fixed income. over the past couple of days you have seen bond yields starting in treasuries but spreading around the rest of the g10 market. it is what you would expect when people are getting cautious on equities driven by the big tech stocks. equities are coming down, people see the chances of future rate hikes being a lot less than they were just a couple of weeks ago, and equities are slipping into relation to bonds. that is a bit of an old school shifting portfolios. when people get defensive they want to own more fixed income in relation to equities. a big factor is the cautious outlook you were seeing for major tech companies. if anybody has a good read on what is happening in the u.s. economy and where they see it going, it is people like amazon and meta and alphabet. those are the people to give you

haidi: thanks, james ludden. the chinese president xi jinping as phil china's most powerful bodies with his close allies while securing a precedent breaking third consecutive term at the close of the congress party. let's bring in stephen engle who joins us in hong kong. any surprises for you? there was not a lot of compromise when it comes to the up. >> -- line up. >> those are my words exactly. in the lead up to this party, the reshuffle of party positions, we speculated whether xi would continue on whether -- with the tried-and-true practice of stacking the standing committee with people from different factions. some of the -- proteges. they were all that is over six members on the standing committee, there was nobody from the other factions, they were all loyalists to xi jinping, he stacked the deck. that was one of the main scenarios that would lay out, and sure enough xi jinping got his third consecutive term and all of his positions on that powerful standing committee. going out, li, we knew he would not b

haidi: u.k.nding his fiscal plan says stop act tracking on a promise to deliver tax cut for the countries top earners. u.k. cabinet members have toned bloomberg that prime mr. liz truss would struggle for key parts of her economic plan less than a month into her premiership. prime ministers believe that it is already irreparably damaged. the former australian high commissioner to the united kingdom joins us now. professor, really a pleasure to have you with us. i'm very interested to get your insight into this difficult, challenging situation for the prime minister, with to three years until the next election. we have petitions for an immediate election, we're hearing she's losing support within her own party, how do you restore credibility, is that possible? >> i think there's a great risk of over interpreting what has happened in the united kingdom, so let me try to put this in clear context. the government of prime minister truss has very decisively opted for a low strategy to grow the -- the

haidi: you are watching daybreak: asia. we are counting down to the market open in tokyo and seal -- seoul. shery: australia has just come online, our top stories this hour. haidi: asian stocks are set for more losses. there is a vow to end markets support this friday. more restrictive policy is needed to tame inflation. >> the funds rate is just approaching a neutral funds rate and we need to get it above neutral for a time of we want to put inflation down. shery: it was already a choppy trading session before the boe's commissioner's comments. the yield is jumping up of the 390 level, wti is falling below the $90 a barrel level and we see the downside pressure in the asian session. we are looking ahead to inflation numbers and as we look back in september we have a hot august cpi trend. we saw a decline of 4% on the s&p 500. jp morgan saying that if we have a too hot cpi, when it comes to the u.s. stocks. haidi: a lot of headwind facing investors but they the asx 200 opening low today, we are entering a do wait and see mo

haidi: stephen engle with the latest. vonnie quinn with the latest headlines. >> bank of canada signals it is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. they boosted by 50 basis points instead of the 75 expected. the governor said while the hiking cycle is approaching the end, there are more raises to come. wuhan has locked down a central district after 18 covid cases were found. 900,000 residents have been ordered to stay at home until sunday. non-essential business is closed. china reported more than 1200 covid cases nationwide tuesday. the most in two weeks. a new report from the u.n. paints a grim picture of global warning and says the earth is on track to warm by more than two degrees celsius by the end of the century but that admissions will not increase after 2030. elon musk has made his presence felt at the twitter headquarters before his takeover. he walked into the offices carrying a kitchen sink and changed his descriptor to chief twit. he plans to take that company private. global news 24 hours a day on air and o

haidi: what about the aussie?ch of that depends on what the greenback continues to do but we have seen a lot of the fundamentals quite favorable in terms of trade does that become a bigger driver going forward as we see that shift from the rba? ray: i think only at the point where the u.s. dollar starts to weekend. it is dollar strength that has driven a wedge between where the aussie has been trading and what a fundamental fair value estimate that has a large weight to the terms of trade would have you believe. that gap is at least five cents. and at a point where the dollar starts to weaken, its commodity prices remain relatively elevated, i think we see the aussie headed back to 70. in the meantime i think risk sentiment is absolutely key and in the driving seat. if we are going to see another turned down in global risk sentiment, at this stage it is hard to have any confidence of the lows around 62.5 in aussie have yet to be seen. and you have to make allowance for aussie mating -- maybe getting that 60 psycho

haidi: next spring.further pain when it comes to growth, and therefore the pboc authorities will have to do more, both monetary and fiscal? ding: both monetary and fiscal, they are already doing a lot in terms of support. but i think the stringent covid measures will stay in place as the property market continues to be corrected. that is going to continue to make the recovery quite moderate. we forecast third-quarter gdp growth has 3.2% year on year in fourth quarter growth, 4.8% year on year. they are better than the second quarter, which suffered from the shanghai lockdown. but on an annual basis, china's gdp growth, we forecast 3.34% this year, still much lower than the target of 5.5%. interestingly, the market, even though they may be as appointed by the retail survey coming out in golden week, they may be interested in the home sales data, given the support introduced right before the holidays. shery: how is that filtering through in the currency? we have seen support for the offshore yuan while off

haidi: more to come.s is bloomberg. ♪ when it comes to tech, everyone wants the next best thing. now with xfi complete from xfinity, you can get updated wifi technology with the new tech upgrade program. plus, protection from cyber threats at home and now on the go. so staying up to date is easier than ever. you look great by the way. right? unbeatable internet. made to do anything so you can do anything. only xfinity will upgrade your tech after 3 years for a more reliable connection. get that and more with xfi complete. upgrade today. >> south korea's president gave a tv address promising a review of safety measures after days -- saturdays crowd crush in seoul that killed at least 150 three people in a narrow alley as tens of thousands of people celebrated halloween, the first such festivity since covid restrictions were lifted last month. 97 of those killed were women and 20 were foreigners. china will host a top foreign leaders this week as president xi jinping kicks off his third term in which he has

haidi: let's take a look at the state of play. session on wall street overnight expectations, or sheer hope we might see the start of major central banks pivoting to a more dovish stance was set up on the small than expect it hike from the rba. quite a lot of analysts pointing cold water on citations from the fed. we are still seeing modest gains across asia. we are seeing the kospi gaining. some tech stocks also getting the tailwind of that elon musk twitter deal perhaps being back on foot. the extension of that rally following the best today run for u.s. equities in more than two years. also seeing australia up by 1.5%, still basking in the afterglow of the rba decision. some pretty good gains when it comes to kiwi stocks as well before the rbnz. shery: we are following chip stocks as well. in the u.s. they surged. we saw the philadelphia semiconductor index finishing at a two-week high. reports that the biden administration is planning to announce new restrictions on sales of semiconductor to algae to china, boosting these stoc

haidi: china has criticized the u.s.to expand access to semi conductor technology, saying it will harm supply chains in the world economy. president reitan announced this on friday. the leadership has some other matters to contend with in the next week or so, but what has been the reaction from beijing? >> i think there has not been a great deal of surprise. this was well previewed. there have been many reports about the administration. there's been a lot of restriction on buying semiconductors. this is a step up from that that particularly targets ai and supercomputing chips and also tightens rules around kind of equipment china is allowed to buy. china's responses this is going to be bad for an industry already suffering from higher rates in slow growth around the world. china for these restrictions a couple of years ago used to be the world biggest market of semiconductors. kathleen: what do you expect to happen next? is this going to summer on the back burner? do you think the chinese are going to have to come out wi

haidi: this is a big-picture question. conventional energy and also energy transition? in australia, coal is the most valuable mineral and energy export we have right now. damien: the difficulty in managing this transition has been moving away to renewables. we still consume today oil and gas and coil come at the -- oil, gas and coal, 30% of energy generation. global investment needs to be made. in the decades to come, in gas, oil and coal and renewables entire region. you can't sacrifice one for the other, or you will end up in today's situation where we are at a deficit every form of energy and there are record high prices in every country. su: david will pass -- kathleen: david mill pass -- david milpas, president of the world bank, has been criticized for saying you can stay on a green path on renewables well you put more money into producing, drilling, more crude oil out of the ground, is that the point you're making come, this has to be done for now? damien: energy consumption rises every year. investing in a solutio

haidi: great to have you with us, benito berber.to the g20 summit we will have more analysis on the challenges facing the group mondays at 8:40 a.m. hong kong time here on bloomberg television. more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: take a look at how brazilian related as that traded in asia are looking right now. we have seen positive sentiment especially when it comes to japan related edf with the brazilian stocks. really getting more than 4% as we are also watching wireless power which got about 8% of its revenue from brazil last year. these assets being watched given that luiz ignacio lula de silva has made a dramatic comeback to priscilla presley is presidency, the two term former president winning by a narrow margin, saying the economy must improve everyone's lives. lula focusing on his previous two terms that lifted millions of residents of poverty. that is it from "bloomberg daybreak: asia." coming to you live from sao paulo, brazil. our markets coverage continues. this is bloomberg. ♪ millions have made the switch from the

haidi: the latest on japanese assets.ngth of the dollar and the whitening differentials which is pressuring the offshore you one, topping the key 7.3 level for the first time. let's discuss. christopher wong, fx strategists and ocbc bank. it is good to have you with us. is the only direction here, weathered is the one or yen, just down against the u.s. dollar given the factors we have mentioned? >> pretty much. basically the combination of tighter financial conditions globally, persisting dollar strength, growth -- growth deceleration. yesterday when market opens for china, the pboc basically relaxed its grip on the -- so that seemed to give markets the expectations that the pboc might be just about willing to let the yuan to appreciate a little more. but perhaps in an orderly manner. this morning, and perhaps the next mornings, pboc will be critical to watch but to monitor how that goes. as far as that is concerned, there is a little bit of that invisible ceiling that we were looking at. but, it seems like the -- is igno

haidi: bloomberg's kathleen hays.king of central-bank action and volatility out of the u.k., we are hearing from quasi that he has left imf talks early as their is a u-turn when it comes to the much maligned fiscal policy package. this is a according to a u.k. treasury spokesperson commenting on the plans. we have seen to and fro when it comes to u.k. assets and what is next. a friday deadline for the be ok is looming as we see scapegoating between the chancellor of the exchequer and the boe governor. more details on that. but back to china, food inflation remaining a problem, but myriad challenges for the leadership as we get into the communist party congress weekend. a host of challenges from covid to property dragging on the economy, to geopolitical tensions with the u.s. and taiwan. let's bring in chief north asia correspondent stephen engle in hong kong. what are you watching for in the speech sunday? stephen: it could be a long speech, upwards of three hours. but he will outline a number of party policy prioriti

haidi: su keenan with the latest.'s get you the latest business flash headlines this hour as we continue to follow top stories. looking at eisai, extremely competent getting full of approval in an experimental autonomous drug. the ceo told bloomberg more data is due next month. he expects a decision in january and is confident the drug can medicare coverage and to give us. asml as ordered customers to stop servicing stocks in china after the biden restrictions. the chipmaker told of rule changes in the mail. it tries to strike a balance between the two nations. coming up next, the outlook for japan as boj vows to keep easing. the imf mission chief for the country. ranil >> it is really amazing, obviously not to discriminate, there are lots of risks in the world. we have never seen this kind of volatility. ups and downs intraday. >> there is a hunger, risk appetite. >> we are pitching ourselves where yields are globally. >> equity and credit and a bottoms up away is something you can moving on. >> we are all looking ar

haidi: australia has just come online. asian stocks facing headwinds after a fourth day of declines on wall street. chip stocks sinking to 2020 lows after fresh restrictions on china. fed officials voice caution on inflation as the imf warned higher rates could inflict a $4 trillion slowdown. japan reopening its doors after three years of covid controls. haidi: we have aussie stocks online. unchanged. functionally higher as we get into the first minute of trade. perhaps reflecting some of the momentum that came through later in the u.s. session. down to this more optimistic town or more positive tone by lael brainard. sort of running counterintuitive to what we have heard from other fed officials pick keeping an eye on on what we are seeing the bond space. treasuries closed monday. we did see an aggressive selloff against the guilt curve. driven by what we had from the boe concerning it will end it's long-duration buybacks from friday. if you change on now, interesting moves in the currency space. the aussie dollar extendi

haidi: bond yields climb ahead of the fed. jp morgan says the global hiking cycle is nearing an end. kathleen: the australia central-bank, expected to raise rates by a quarter percentage point as a housing downturn extends in every major city across the country. a quick check on wall street now, talking to you about an october rally that ended on the downside. the first of the week, the last day of the month, a decline. we had dennis stuck down 1.5%. big tech, the s&p, down three quarters of a percent today. the question now is where we go next. you can see a little bit of a bounce here. not much of a move. of course the big banks are saying the pivot may be just around the corner, as the economy starts weakening. when you look at bonds, i don't see any pivot being priced into the bond market. certainly not the u.s. treasury market. the 10 year yield, back to .05%, the 10-year note back up to 4.5%. 75 basis point rate hike this week, already priced in. the question is december. a solid job report on friday. another thing that

haidi: the top stories this hour. asia stocks are set for a positive open after treasuries are gaining and the dollar is lower. the move may be dampened by earnings with the u.s. tech names, shares are falling in extended trade. we are live with australia's finest minister after a budget warning of higher debt and deficits lie ahead. annabelle: we have the asx 200 coming online unchanged in these are of trade. a modestly high start but we will have a lot of concerns around confidence in the session. it weaker dollar is helping as well as the pullback in yield that is supporting factors in the session. we are focused on the big tech earnings coming out of the u.s.. you can see the reaction we already have in nasdaq futures at the start of trade here dropping. that is playing out in what we are expecting for the japanese session today, we have the nikkei futures in the red. new zealand is in the green and also buying what is happening in the offshore, holding up of the key 7.3 level. a little bit stronger this morning,

i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. it >> i'm annabelle droulers in hong kong. >> good evening from bloomberg world headquarters, i'm shery ahn. elon musk revises his bid for twitter at its original price, avoiding a costly legal battle and sending the social media giant shares surging. >> stocks had their best day since may of 2020. the dollar and treasury yields slumping. >> opec-plus considers a cut of 2 million barrels a day. u.s. futures under a little bit of pressure after the best to-day gain since april of 2020. we are talking about risk appetite returning to the markets. we have the s&p 500 95% of members in the index gaining ground for a second consecutive day. also the treasury yield continuing, really the bearish bets really being flushed out of the markets. even the two year yield falling below that level before rebounding a little bit. we also have crude prices rallying on that opec plus news. at the moment under a little bit of pressure and still above $85 a barrel. but really remember that despite the fa

i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. >> we are counting down to asia's major market open. >> let's get to the top stories is monday morning. investors bracing for an unpredictable week in march. some key markets shut. >> oil producers considering cutting apple by more than a billion barrels per day. >> the motor being counted in the presidential election in brazil. we will be getting analysis from eric. hope you're all well and had a restful weekend. we are turning the page. the new weekly quarter. things are changing. what a substantial drop. here is the set up as we get underway. 3500. that is where we are. substantial pop here. opec-plus is willing to look at more substantial cuts than expected. maybe more than a million barrels per day. >> you can see the u.s. futures there. that is new zealand. just a little bit in the green but in terms of what we are watching in the currency space, we just saw beyond the u.s. dollar looking little further. still, the aussies rated and of the rba decision, that is the big one on the calendar. not enough to catch this in bank of america. we could

haidi: it will make a meaningful difference to the fed trajectory.olicymakers around the world being affected by surging inflation. expecting another 75 basis point hike. i want to bring in my next guest to the conference. so great to have you here. let's start with president biden's comment about the risk of a slight recession, as my colleagues just said. a slight recession is still a recession. >> interesting to hear president biden say that, that is certainly in line with our base case. we are expecting a mild recession, i think people are aware that is step that -- that it is definitely a risk. our best case is that it would be mild, you would have a couple of quarters of negative growth but it would also mean arise in the unemployment rate. we are expecting not to rise above 5% by the end of next year. >> that's one of the things keep falling back on his being resilient. where do you see the weakness that we might not be seeing? >> labor market data is generally some of the last to show the weakness. then you see negative monthly job trends like

haidi: welcome to daybreak

haidi:

haidi: stephen, we are getting news.kong is not going to allow public gatherings of 12 people from october the 20th, a bit more relaxation. that is chief north asia correspondent, stephen engle. let's get to vonnie quinn. vonnie: the biden administration plans to release 50 million barrels from the u.s. emergency crude reserves may consider more this northern winter. it's an effort to ease ask -- gasoline prices that have become a liability for democrats ahead of the elections. the white house plans to replenish the reserve by buying westech's crude when it falls to two dollars a barrel or less. minneapolis fed president says the u.s. central bank cannot positive campaign in monetary policy tightening, but underlying inflation is accelerating. he told the panel discussion that core services inflation keeps surprising policymakers to the upside. he says he will not advocate pausing the key rate at 4.5% unless there is progress on core inflation. the bank of england will start is delayed bond sales next month. but will ini

haidi: there has been some talk amongst g7 at least, about the active miss of potential coordinated currencyn -- about the potential effectiveness of coordinated currency action. is this something you would consider if currency reserves become a problem, particularly for emerging markets? >> the best possible policy i think is global economic action, but i'm not sure it could happen. every country doing its own would be less effective than all the countries together in addressing the overly strong dollar. sherry: -- shery: good to see you again. how would that affect your overall policy stance? >> the way it looks, the fed is going to probably do at least two more 75's and maybe another 50, and in this case, for the philippines, it is a question of how much we will respond. the argument for not responding point by point is that our inflation rate is lower, but the argument for moving boulder -- moving bolder is the pressure of the currency also has to be addressed. yvonne: that was a philippine central bank governor speaking with our "daybreak" team. to get to first word news, we have vonnie

they are looking at 145 to 150, haidi. >> the yen has seen a big boost when it comes to japanese stockstlook for emerging-market equities, are things starting to look up? >> yes. that is actually what morgan stanley is saying, finally a bit of good news for em stocks. they have had multiple quarters and years of underperformance versus developed markets. basically morgan stanley is saying we could be seeing some positive moves ahead for emerging-markets, and also asia, japan. we have seen extreme selling across these markets. they are comparing it to a situation where a lot of wood has been chopped and now it is time to plant some new saplings. you can take a look at this chart, we are heading into another period of underperformance of emerging markets to their developed peers. a lot of that can be put down to what we are seeing and china, because it does make up a large portion of the em index. down to policies like obit zero, tensions with the west -- covid zero, tensions with the west, being a drag on the index, still likely we are going to see the sector improve. >> the equity secto