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so i'm harry enten here at the magic wall to dive into the numbers. all right. so harry, tell us the way, what do you have found about how voted or leaning at this point compared to 2020? >> yeah. mean the voter registration numbers, if you want a stat that republicans absolutely love it's this one, right pennsylvania voter registration, you register by party and that's that you go back to november 2020. >> you see democrats 47%, republicans, 39. that was an eight point advantage. look at where we are today. yes, more voters in pennsylvania registered as democrats and republicans, but it's now just 44% to 40%. now they've got a four point gap. democrat, republicans excuse me, have cut that democratic advantage in half, in half in such a short period of time, they have gone out, they've registered voters. there are folks that have come over to their side who were previously registered democrats. the question is where are they picking up ground mount a, where are they picking up ground? this to me says it. all. all right. which pennsylvania counties that the gop ga

and harry enten is outfront live from the magic wall so harry, we've talked about a lot of important senate races, people even talking about ted cruz. this is not one that is on many people's radar, but it's incredibly close and it could be hugely significant for republicans odds of taking control of the senate. >> what a shocker that paul was that took my mind. let's just talk about the senate math, right. all right. the seats, the gop he needs for senate control. they need a net pickup of one if trump wins, but two, if harris wins, right? because right now, democrats have 51 seats or at least caucusing with the democrats compared to the 49 seats for republicans. but here's the deal. when you look at the senate math at this point, if you're talking about the race ratings, right, what do we see? we see that republicans actually get up to 51 seats. why? because go to the great state of west virginia. take me home, west virginia. jim justice a solid republican pickup for joe manchin, of course, former democrat now at the independent another seat that republicans have been doing quite w

harry enten is coming up, will have his mic on when it comes back to before election day. >> vice president harris basis voters thanks to pressing questions lie. >> anderson cooper moderates a cnn presidential town hall, kamala harris, wednesday at nine eastern on cnn flight bag. we are go for launch. >> that the one so much that open kitchen walk-in closet with the tie game we've got a problem how can you sell her house? >> were stuck on a space station for months door. >> open door. gives you the flexibility only to sell and buy on your time billionaires, but kamala harris has plans to help us. >> she's going to crack down on price gouging and cut taxes for working people like me. i voted for donald trump before, but this time i'm voting for kamala ff pac is responsible for the content of this ad. i love being a building. >> it's just a really good feeling to know that you've accomplished something i need to hire people who care as much about building up the city as i did. >> so i use it for kerner. they sent my jobs so the top job sites and found people with the right skills it's an expe

kaitlan harry enten, no one is undecided about you oh, thank all hall will tell you what we think later thank you so much, harry. thank you all so much for joining us. cnn newsnight with abby phillip starts now

president donald trump and joining us now to run the numbers is saying cnn senior data reporter harry entenalways our favorite time with you, harry, you run the numbers it's pretty close. how close is it in the most important states? >> how closest that i feel like every single time around the merry-go-round we go we try and find a different way to say it's caused this time i even just have it on the title screen, right. make it simple for folks the race is close what if we want to break it down in some numbers here? look, i this to me is the simplest way to sort of show up mathematically kamala harris likely must carry three of these four states to win. these are the states that are most likely going to determine who the next president, united states, as you look in north carolina, look at this donald trump with less than a point lead wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania that great blue wall in the great lakes states harris ahead by less than a point, less than a point, less than a point when you're showing the four most important states and the margin in all four of them is one of the candid

. >> harry enten joining us now to break it all down harry, this race continues to be just incredibly close. walk us through what you're seeing in pennsylvania. a very, very critical state that's where trump is tonight. >> i don't know how steve got through that report so straight faced, i would have been laughing basically the entire time once the word is arnold palmer came out of his mouth, i would have been down on the floor. so bravo to you, steve. i mean, look, he's in pennsylvania. this pennsylvania. pennsylvania pennsylvania, right i mean, how much closer can we get? we do this every week, jessica, we can look back a month ago. it was tight then harris up by two, looked at where we are today, i think last week it was like a point now where harris by less than a point in the great commonwealth of pennsylvania. so i think steve might have to get used to going back there and perhaps here a few more interesting stories from donald trump about any athletes he might have seen anywhere know, i think they're all going to be there a lot, put this into historical context for us though wh

let's bring in cnn's harry enten. harry, what are the latest polls? from the badger state showing? >> you will always be my shari'a more jake, but let's take a look at the polling data here. all right, look bottom line it is so tight. you can look at quinnipiac, he get a plus two for trump. well, within the margin ever, how about a wall street journal, you prefer a tie. we got to tie with the wall street journal. how about the new york times, sienna college poll? we got harris up by two you look at the marquette university law school poll harris by four. but again, we've got a range of results going on here in the badger state. it's just a very, very tight race, of course, for me, one of the real questions i have is what are the poles are actually going to be any good this time around. because if you look in 2020, what you see in the final polls in wisconsin, you saw biden up by hey, hey the actual result was biden by a point. i'll note, i rounded that number up. i think it was 0.63 percentage points. so the question is, are the polls actually going to be right this time around, or

focus much of their attention there in the remaining weeks of the race, will cnn data reporter harry enten shows us just how close things up and help pennsylvania's vote could make all the difference. at the polling at the end of the campaign for every single cycle, back the last 50 years to see if there was ever a race this close in the polling there has never been there has never been a race this close in the polling since 1,972 and the great commonwealth of pennsylvania, keep in mind right now, kamala harris has less than a one point lead is actually less than half a point. >> here's the deal chance they win the election. >> if they win pennsylvania, pennsylvania is just really, really important. so kamala harris wins in pennsylvania. she has an 87% chance of winning election if donald trump wins in the commonwealth the pennsylvania, he has a 92% chance of winning the election. now, the one, there are two ways you can look at this, right? number one, pennsylvania is extremely important at both of their paths to 270 electoral votes. but it's actually a little bit more important to kamala

i want to bring in cnn senior data reporter harry enten. harry, we talked a lot about battlegrounds, pennsylvania, wisconsin, arizona. i'm hearing democrats expressing a lot of concern right now. about michigan, where to harris and trump stand in michigan right now i think there's good reason for democrats to be concerned with what's going on in the wolverine state. >> and we can see it right here in the polling average. look, if you look at the democrat versus trump margin in, of course, the great state of michigan, what do we see in the polling average? we see kamala harris only up by a point, right? compare that to the 2020 result when joe biden and one of course in michigan by three, joe biden at this point in the polls in 2020, was up by six, no matter what way you splice it one point is significantly less than six points. it's a race at this particular point, mr. tapper, that is far too close to call and of course, michigan is so pivotal both for kamala harris and for donald trump, but even more so for kamala harris because this is the

cnn's senior data reporter, harry enten at the magic wall. holes in past races have been way off the mark. >> why? >> why? because as i say here on this slide, polls are a signal. they ain't no extra domus my dear friend, the ain't nostradamus. they take a sample of the population can you don't necessarily know he's going to turn out and vote on election day. and so i want to put in some simple steps for you, get your audience to understand that polls are far from perfect. alright, so how much was the average state polling average miss by since 1,972 in the key battleground states, while the average error is 3.4 points, my goodness, gracious. all the polls right? now we're well within the poll averages in the key battleground states. how about your quote, unquote margin of error that you're 95% confidence interval. it's even wider than that. get this 5% of polls in the key battleground states those polling averages get this miss by more than nine 9.4 what percentage points. so even if you have say, a sixt point lead in a key state, that ain't

harry enten thanks so much. always good to have you on. let's go right to our panel. >> alyssa how are republicans feeling about this battleground state polling? cautiously optimistic. listen, kamala harris had tremendous momentum coming out of her, her convention and then she did have this great debate performance where the majority of voters thought that she beat donald trump, but somehow the race is just simply tightening up. there's a level of optimism. donald trump's moving up in the key sun belt states as well. so all eyes are really ligand beyond the commonwealth of pennsylvania as they have been for the last six months and donald trump is playing smart there. and i want to know a specific demographic that i'm not convinced this properly measuring in polls and could actually end up benefitting donald trump, which is young white male voters who are first-time voters. he has been targeting these folks on podcasts, calling the joe rogan, the barstool sports voters. those are people we may not actually be seeing turnout in some of these

earlier, i spoke with cnn senior data reporter harry enten break it down in some numbers here, look, i this to me is the simplest way to sort of show it mathematically. >> kamala harris likely must carry three of these four states to win. these are the states that are most likely going to determine who the next president, united states, as you look in north carolina, look at this donald trump with less than a point lead wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania that great blue wall in the great lakes states, harris ahead by less than a point, less than a point, less than a point when you're showing the four most important states and the margin in all four of them is one of the candidates up by less than a point. i'm not quite sure there's any other way to put it, then this race is really really close yeah. >> i think i think you hit the nail on the head there what does it mean if you broaden out for the electoral map, then yeah so. >> right. now these are the four most important state. so let's just say that the polls were exactly 100% correct. and so the results match the polls and harris wi

still a deadlock with trump in pennsylvania cnn senior data reporter harry enten joins us now from new york with a new polling. harry, i notice you're not at the board again but he's got his yellow board and that's what matters. are you seeing any trend lines in these key states, erin not really know. >> and i'll also just note i've even upgraded its and now i can say other things on there as well pennsylvania. pennsylvania, pennsylvania. look, if we look at the polling that we have out now you compare it to the polling that we had out back in august it's and those same states. there's no movement. it's the exact same picture. you know, you mentioned pennsylvania being a time michigan plus five. it was plus vi back in august. how about wisconsin plus six back then? plus six now, so there's nothing going on. this has been the same race basically now, for months on end you know, i told our colleague pint stout there. i've really kind of run out of ways to say that this race is too close to call, but that doesn't mean i'm going to stop trying, guys. >> okay. now, take it to the map, the e

since data guru, a very excited harry enten is here with me. ou've been looking at the numbers and this is i mean, poor people in pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin who were just bombarded with this but you're looking at what these ads are, what these campaigns are spending per voter on these ads, like pity these poor voters. if you look across the seven key battleground states plus nebraska's second congressional district. since october 1, that campaigns packs, et cetera spending $18 per voter, $18 per voter in these swing states. that's a ridiculous amount given of course, that there are about 44 million voters spread across the seven swing states. and of course, the second congressional district in nebraska. >> okay, so you're spending $18 per vote or obviously different states in different voters. they're sending different messages, but what are we seeing? what are the ads that are resonating are breaking through the most in these last yeah, you know, at least when it comes to the anti-trump pro-harris stuff, it's about the fact that donald t

. >> one of the numbers harry enten, senior data reporter, harry enten is here one of the numbers we always talk about an election is, do voters think the country is on the right track or the wrong track? what are the polls shift? yeah. if we look of whether voters believe we're on the right track or the wrong track i think that this sort of gets at a problem for kamala harris's campaign, just 28% of americans think the u.s is on the right track. and i want you to put that into perspective right? when does the average when the incumbent party loses the election, look at that. it's just 25%. that looks a heck of a lot like that, 28%, right? that currently think the country's on the right track when the white house party wins, i, ii, kamala harris, his party, the democrats 42% on average, think that the country is on the right track. this 25% looks a lot more like dish 28%. it doesn't look anything like this. 42%, this to me is a bad sign for kamala harris campaign. the bottom line is, it looks a lot more like a loser than it does like a winner when it comes comes to the country being

. >> yeah, we have, you know, who has harry enten saying that? we're wondering harry how accurate the numbers are really, here's cnn's senior data reporter, harry enten joining us now put this into perspective for us. harry, what are the polls actually revealing? come to us discern the math for us because sometimes it's just a lot of numbers area it's a lot of numbers. >> i will discern the math for you, but during the segment, i have a job for the two of you. i haven't eaten lunch yet, so if you too could come up with a game plan for what i should do for lunch. i would really, really appreciate it. okay. >> alright. so we're going to run the numbers and here's the deal. someone could win them this election in a blowout despite the fact that the polls are so tight. in fact, at this particular point, if you take an aggregation of the different forecast models, will the 2024 winter get at least 300 electoral votes? in fact, the majority answer is yes, a 60% chance that either kamala harris or donald trump will get 300 plus election total votes. the

look, there's one person right there, harry enten, our cnn senior data reporter harry this race is incredibly close. i don't have to tell you that everyone i know asked me what's going to happen and the bottom line is, it's just really close. we don't no. >> i have no clue what's going to happen. and you know, what's so amazing to be about this racist. i thought it was close to a month of september, somehow, it's become even closer. you can see it in these great lake battleground states. you go back three weeks ago. it was a tight race in pennsylvania, wisconsin, and michigan, three points michigan, two points in wisconsin and pennsylvania, yet come today, holy toledo, holy cow. look at pennsylvania, wisconsin, or michigan. now we got a one-point race. it's somehow even tighter. and if we expand that out, we don't just look at the great lake battleground states. we look at the sunbelt battleground states as well and somehow oh i mean, look at, look at these numbers. they're crazy 111 111111 and then arizona is a relative ball out at a two point margin for donald trump. i mean, all of these st

>> cnn senior data reporter harry enten joins us live. harry, great to see you as always. i'm concerned because you're not in front of the magic wall i got one right here. so what trends are you seeing now, harry? how does it compare to years past? what do you think? >> yeah, i mean, look, i'll use my magic yellow board here, and then we're going to throw it up on screen. so you guys can see. look, i think there are so many folks who are expecting record turnout this year, right we saw record turnout four years ago. i'm not quite sure it's going to happen because there are a couple of polling metrics that i've been looking at comparing 2024 to what we saw in 2020, and what we see is the percentage of registered voters who say they're certain to vote in this election is actually down seven points from the same point back in 2020. the percentage of registered voters who say they're extremely motivated to turn out and come out and vote, that's also down eight points from where we were in 2020, and that actually matches what we saw in the 2022 midterms. right where turnout was

harry enten. thanks so much for that let's turn now to our panel joining me now, democratic strategists and former senior advisor for the bernie sanders presidential campaign. chuck rocha, and also with us does that republican strategist, katie frost, thanks to both of you for being here with us. you just heard harry there. this is a very tight race. it could go really either way. trump does appear to hold that advantage in some of the sunbelt states tonight, we've seen some star power for harris in arizona with actors like kerry washington and jessica alba, glenn close holding a block party to rally black voters in phoenix chuck, i just want to start with you it seems like we are reaching the point in these campaigns and 30 days out, it makes sense where the surrogates are out. last night we saw but elon musk with trump in pennsylvania, we're seeing some of these actors out in arizona. this is where we are in this race. it's now time to get out the vote you're still right jessica, i was watching

and protected and my political sources join me now at the table that includes cnn's data guru, harry enten and harry, these numbers are really interesting of what it shows with harris when it comes to michigan, wisconsin, she is ahead of trump in those states when you when you look at the numbers, not just overall, but also on some key issues, it seems deadlocked in pennsylvania that what stood out to you in this new poll, i think what stood out to me is that the racist haven't moved at all, not one iota. >> you go back to august, the numbers in all three states look exactly the same as they do now. and you have to ask yourself, why? and these campaigns are spending all this gosh, star money on the air, especially in pennsylvania. and it's just a dead heat. so now as we stand less than a week from the election, i continuously say pennsylvania, pennsylvania pennsylvania. and i also continuously say i have no idea what the heck is going to happen and people call me a waffler for that. but i'm just being honest with folks. i have no idea. this is the title this election. i've ever seen. >> we

harry enten. harry would have pulling areas fine. whatever you want, you can feel free to wander around the state what does that current polling in michigan liquid, that would be quite a scene, wouldn't it be right on your show me wandering around. look, at michigan, you can't get any tighter than it is right now. man, i mean, a month ago kamala harris was up by two points. you look at the average of polls today. she's up by less then a point if that holds until the final day of this election cycle, it will be the closest polled race in michigan in history. i went back in my spreadsheet, you know, i love doing that since 1,972, there has been a closer poll the race than what we have going on right now in the wolverine state now, in terms of mesh, sleep and a bit of spreads to actually sure, i have a bad if spreadsheets i actually fell asleep on my suit on monday night, but that's a whole other thing. anyway you look, michigan is so important to both of these folks, map to 270 electoral votes. the chance that kamala harris wins if she

and harry enten is outfront at the magic wall. i'm sorry, harris is up. sorry, i let you go. okay. harris is up i don't know why i was. here's up, which is crucial because i get it more, harry, that is all margin of error. but when you see that again and again and again across states, it does make you wonder if that's really what's going on. so in that context, a lot of panic among democrats right now but then you see those states that show her up within the margin of error, michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. what does it all mean yeah, you know, it's one of these funny things depending on which week i get different friends from different sides of the aisle coming back to me one week as republicans. >> this week it was the democrats that were wearing, but then you look at polling like that and then we take a look at the race to 270, and i should point out the race to 270, the path to 270 for kamala harris is very clear right now. you know, you talk about wisconsin. let's turn that blue. all right, that gets harris to 236 electoral votes. how about michigan will give her blue th

i appreciate it harry enten joins me now from the magic wall. harry, we talk about georgia, you know, you're just looking here at least a specific numbers. polls have closed on the first day of early voting, but georgia matters so much. i mean, how it goes as an indicator of where the entire race is going. so that's why so much attention is on these early numbers. >> yeah, i think that's exactly right, erin. i mean, i should point out that georgia isn't not even part of kamala harris's easiest path to 270 electoral votes. donald trump really needs to win the state. i mean, look, kamala harris is best path moves through the great lakes, right? she winds up there, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, gets you to 270 bee can also potentially give her nevada where she's been polling pretty decently. that gets her to 276. now let's just say we give her the state of georgia georgia, right. that gets to 92. this gives her a major margin for error because she could lose in pennsylvania and she would still get 273 electoral votes. let's say we give that bac

harris and trump neck and neck and to other battleground states, georgia and north carolina. >> harry enten is outfront now at the magic wall. harry pivotal, as we know, these states, but just put them in context for us in terms of what they could mean. >> yeah, i got georgia. georgia on my mind is right. charles used to say look as jeff was talking about in the last segment, the big blue wall runs through the great lake battleground states that's kamala harris, his best path. wisconsin michigan, pennsylvania, that would get kamala harris to 270 electoral votes. but let's just say there's some leakage and that great big blue wall. let's just say the kamala harris loses in michigan, will then she drops below 270 electoral votes. but you know what get a right back over it. let's just say we give the state of north carolina. she gets up to 271 electoral votes. so the bottom line is the southeast states can very much sort of prove as a backup path potentially for kamala harris. let's just say we're going to put michigan back in a blue, but we get pennsylvania way to donald trump. now, kamala ha

butter have a very serious caddie right back for our new class pet, we have a special guest, cnn's harry enten well folks, we got a race for the ages here with nibbles, the hamster jumping out to a ten point advantage over jaws to golf gold fish, big brand recognition. but it isn't translating in a boat. >> so what the heck is going on in here swim can be done pilk and so sorry, it's a decent assessment thrill seeker, the soul searcher, and it's the explorer, each helping to protect their money with chase last card isn't keeping this thrill seeker down lost or card, not the vibe. >> the sole searchers finding his identity and helping to protect oh, yeah. the explorer. she's looking to dive deeper all wild chase south for her because these friends have chased alerts that helped checked tools that help protect one bank that puts you in control. >> chase make more of what's yours we just want to have enough money for retirement and travel to visit our grandchildren. i understand. that's why at fisher investments, we start by getting to know each other. so i can warn about your family lifestyle, g

is, what does this data tell us ought to go inside the numbers with cnn's senior data reporter harry enten and harry gabe sterling is calling this spectacular turnout compared to what we've seen in previous election cycles. what does this mean that we're seeing such a higher number, but obviously not anywhere close to what we'll see three weeks from now, i really we appreciate it. >> his tweet actually, i think it was a geoff and i think to a spectacular that was strongest. >> i think it's spectacular, right? >> we got people voting, people are clearly very excited about this election. but here's the thing, right? four years ago was a pandemic in-person early voting this year is going to look very different than it did four years ago at the same time, voting by mail can look very different than it did four years ago in georgia, for example, i don't think anywhere near the number who voted by mail for years ago are going to vote by the same numbers this time. so when you see that number 300,000 plus i think it's a great number. it's obviously double the record, but we should note that the v

are actually underestimating kamala harris with me now, sexy pirate and cnn's data correspondent harry enten. >> thank you. all right, harry, this is actually serious here. the polls have underestimated donald trump in 2016 and 2020. any precedent for it happening three times in a row? >> that's the great question, john, is there any precedent that the polls will underestimate donald trump, once again, because that's all we hear about. oh, donald trump. he's going to outperform his pulse. >> so i went back and checked out whether or not a party outran the polls three presidential election cycles in a row. >> in the key battleground, states, it's never happened. it's never happened. zero times zero times since 1,972. so if the polls are going to underestimate donald trump, once again, that would be historically precedent that now maybe you want to make the argument that donald trump himself has historically unprecedented. but what normally happens is the pollsters catch on, hey, we're underestimating, we're not taking into account some part of the electorate. they make adjustments and i think

, but now she is putting her political weight behind more democrats cnn's senior data reporter, harry enten is here to do it on those races. >> can we and these are house races. we've seen her back harris, obviously presidential election on, all read in the senate for ted cruz's seat. now, she's getting into house races. >> yes, he's getting in the house races. she's getting into a race on eastern long island. john avalon, of course, are former colleague challenging nick lalota, be also in pennsylvania seven, where susan wild, the and come and democrats try and hang on. look the bottom line is this. i think the avalon is a little bit of the hail mary at this particular hour. it's a district that i think donald trump will do quite well in the fall. likely a republican, according to cook political report. but pennsylvania seven toss-up race, a toss-up race in the philadelphia suburbs in northern philadelphia suburbs. so it's gonna be interesting to see if her endorsement could potentially mean anything, even if it means a little something in new york probably doesn't change that race, but any

so the question is, what might we see next week, cnn's harry enten joins me now what do you think harry>> what do i think i think a lot of things, but on this particular topic, i think the popular vote in the electoral college gap could actually shrink from where we were in 2020. i'm going to take you through the numbers to get an indicator patient as to why that is. so let's just talk about the key battleground states. arizona, georgia, north carolina, nevada, and the sunbelt, pennsylvania, wisconsin, and michigan in the great lake battleground states. and what we see as we see more red on the side of the screen with the sunbelt. if you look on the great lakes, we've got a tie in pennsylvania in the aggregate, wisconsin is a tie. michigan plus one harris well within the margin of error. so what is aggregate, but that's doesn't really matter in terms of getting the 270 electoral votes. so what is this exactly mean? well, if we look right now and and wisconsin, the polling averages there compared to the united states, look right now, kamala harris is up by just a point in the national ag

harry enten is at the magic wall, so harry, you know, obviously the house is massive, so being able to boil it down to look at these four so crucial, where are these districts and how close are they right now? >> yeah, so let's take a tour of the great state of new york at something i want to do this time of year it look, you point out the basic math democrats need a net gain of four. i think they could get them from the state of new york. let's show you where these districts are. first, let's start off in the syracuse area. and where are we going? we're looking at the 22nd district. right. this fixture has actually been redistricted to be more favorable to democrats. but last time around brandon williams, the republican, won by only a point. so democrats think they can pick up a seat there. let's slow down. i81. alright, we're going to go to the big ten area. all right, here's another district, the 19th democrats think they have a pretty good shot. marc molinaro, look at that won by less than two points last time around, that's another district let's go down the hudson valley down at

we have a special guest, cnn's harry enten. >> well, folks, we got a race for the ages here with nibbles. the hamster jumping out to a ten point advantage over jaws. the goldfish. big brand recognition. but it isn't translating into votes. so what the heck is going on in here? >> he swims in his own poop. >> i'm so sorry. it's a decent assessment touching stories about people who take their cats camping and accidentally lose them. and then the cat miraculously travels 800 miles to find its way home. it didn't walk, and it didn't hitchhike. and it didn't book a plane ticket with miles there's a simpler explanation. it's a different cat 800 miles to find you, it wasn't driven by love. it's coming for revenge me to take a cold plunge because it works wonders for depression. okay, one, i'm not depressed and two, if i was, i wouldn't get in a tub of ice i'd fill a tub of ice with corona. that's what i would do >> someone must ask the arkansas couple who tried to sell their baby for $1,000 in a six pack of beer. what's wrong with you? $1,000 for a baby from arkansas i mean state, but arkansas.

let's go now to harry enten, our cnn senior data reporter. he's ready to go harry you're ready to go and stick. all alright. run the numbers for us here. how much early voting are we expecting jaeck can last time we were together, i asked the question and so i'm going to ask one to start off this segment as well. >> and at the end, you could tell me, have i lost it, have i lost my complete mind? i want you to keep that question in mind. because we have so many folks who are talking about the early vote. it means this and that for the different candidates, i have no idea what it means for this campaign besides the fact that folks are voting because i want you to keep in mind there was a pandemic last time around, right? there was a pandemic back in 2020. there were a slew of people who either voted voted early in-person or voted by mail. in fact, that was 69% this time around, we're expecting a significantly lower portion of the electorate to vote early or by mail, just 53% in a recent average of polls. so we see the shrinkage that's going on h

harry enten, thank you. >> 15 days to go much, sara. >> all right. thank you, guys so much. breaking overnight for the first time. other celebrities for being cited and accused of taking part in alleged abuse as seven more lawsuits are filed against sean "diddy" combs and the latest on a deadly helicopter after crash that brought down a communication tower. you see the fiery result will have more and more stories coming out you covered no matter the question from more about the candidates to rules in your state to casting your ballot. the cnn voter handbook has your answers. visit cnn.com slash vote for your when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help because the right information at the right time may make all the difference and humana we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medic care supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering seven things. every medicare supplement should have its yours free just for calling the number on your screen and when you call a knowledgeable licensed agent producer can answer any questions you have and help

harry enten. thank you so much for breaking down those numbers and joining us now to discuss are our senior cnn political analyst, gloria borger, and mark preston thanks both for being here. let's let's go back with the bros you can't just say sum before we start this whole real big discussion. thank god that gloria is here to break through this they draw that my softer side. is being her wing person. we'd didn't we didn't give credit to evan perez, who coined this term. >> and i think you were going to blow up, shut up his an our spot today, but he did right out of the day let's talk about texas mj touched touched on it briefly, but what do you make of both candidates going to texas is it a smart move when that state is firmly in the trump case? colum, what can they get out of it? >> well, for her, i think in terms of the question of abortion, its ground zero you know, it's got one of the strictest abortion laws in the country, no exceptions for rape or incest and it gives her an opportunity to s

now, harry enten, thank you. thank you very, very much all right back to some of the top news we're overnight and new comments and the new warning from donald trump's former and longest serving chief of staff marine general john kelly kelly speaking on the record in a series of interviews just out saying that trump fits the definition of fascist and also confirming trump's affinity for hitler and hitler's generals according to john kelly, i want to play for you what kelly told the new york times overnight myers people who are dictators. >> he has said that so he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist for sure, the economy are the ones that does it. what did some good things to win? >> of course you know, history again, i think he's lacking in that. what if you know what his, you know, hitler was all about viewed be pretty hard to make an argument that he did anything good? >> john kelly also spoke with the atlantic. kelly says that he wants asked donald trump, then president trump about his statem

, but now she is putting her political weight behind more democrats cnn's senior data reporter, harry enten is here to do on those races. can we and these are house races? your we've seen her back harris obviously presidential election calling already in the senate for ted cruz's seat. now, she's getting into house races. >> yes, he's getting in the house races. she's getting into the race on eastern long island. john avalon, of course, our former colleague, challenging nick lalota also in pennsylvania, savin, where susan wild, the incoming democrats, try and hang on look, the bottom line is this. i think the avalon is a little bit of a hail mary at this particular hour. it's a district that i think donald trump would do quite well in the fall. likely a republican, according to cook political report. but pennsylvania seven toss race, a toss-up race in the philadelphia suburbs in northern philadelphia suburbs. so it's going to be interesting to see if her endorsement could potentially mean anything, even if it means a little something in new york probably doesn't change that race, but any he

senior data reporter, harry enten is here and we're looking at the case for donald. a donald trump victory, starting with what i do think has been long one of the most overlooked numbers of this election, but could be one of the most important. >> yeah, all right. >> so look, just 28 of americans voters think the country is going in the right direction, is on the right track. and i want you to put that into historical perspective for you, okay. what's the average percentage of the public that thinks that the country is on the right track when the incumbent party loses it's 25% that 25% looks an awful bit like, like that 28% up there. it doesn't look anything, anything like this. 42% doesn't look anything like this, 28%. so the bottom line is very few americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point, it tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses them with wins in fact, i went back through history. there isn't a single time in which 28 28% of the american public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent pa

cnn senior data reporter, harry enten is ray two kept medieval with us. >> you're gonna get knighted how close is this race? okay so when we talk about a historically close race, oftentimes we talk about the national polling, but i wanted to try and dig into the state numbers to get an understanding of how close this race as a whole lee cow from a historical perspective. >> so what i did for all of the years going back since 1,906 72 was i took a look at the final polls and then i basically calculated out what the electoral map would look like and how high up with the leading candidates electoral vote total get. and what we essentially see is right now the leaders electoral vote total is 276 electoral votes based upon the polls if you go back since 72 and try and find the closest years, if you go back to 2000, which of course was a historically close election at the end of the campaign, the poll leaders electoral vote total was just 281 electoral votes. that's where gore wasn't a final polls that campaign. you go back to 2000 for george w bush was at 296 electoral votes. so based upo

harry enten. oh, wow. thank you so much. >> bye. >> bye still to come. >> the white house is suggesting that military aid to israel is that risk. this is serious. they say that unless the country needs a list of demands to improve the humanitarian and the humanitarian situation in gaza. they could see the us scaling back its helped plus backlash over a gop lawsuit. the targets americans voting overseas, which would include military personnel and their family play members. now some house democrats are asking the secretary of defense to protect those americans rights to vote and then later a warning from two of america's most prominent black business leader peters to companies abandoning their strategies to promote diversity, that and much more coming up on cnn news central you, look at the news of the week and asked questions like, what does a comedy show doing on cnn that's too much i want donald news for you saturday at nine on cnn in the world's poorest places children with cleft conditions live in darkn

here to explain what we are seeing, cnn senior data reporter, harry enten, look, we've been talking about black voters the last few days and some shifts there there are significant shifts that benefit vice president harris when it comes to women. >> yeah, i think that's exactly right. so you know, if you look at harris doing better than biden 2020 white men, she's not women of color, she's not man of color. she's not. but among white women. in fact, she is, in fact, it's to a historic degree. so let's take a look here. the gop's margin among white women. look, romney won them by nine. all right, trump in 2016 won them by six. you go back four years ago. trump winning by seven. >> look now, look how much lower trump's margin is among white women. >> look, he still leads, but it's well within the margin error. it's just the point he's doing six points worse than he did four years ago. in fact, he's doing the worst if this holds for a gop candidate, this century among white women, john, well, how much do white women matter electorate. >> so this is the whole thing, right? how much do they ma

there we go to harry enten good thing. >> i see you. john. >> all right. >> with us now is the chair of the democratic national committee, jamie harrison. chairman. thank you so much for being with us. thank you. i always learn something when harry comes on always, number one, the buzzsaw known as lloyd. i mean, that was his nickname, lloyd buzzsaw, benson but i was genuinely shocked that the betting markets are favoring tim walz in this debate right now because every political insider i talked to has been talking about the strengths that j.d. vance has a debater and democrats are talking about their fears about tim walz as it a better politico has got a great expectations article this morning, we're, they have quotes from people who've known tim walz's say in debate situations, you can get quote, a bit manic, overly defensive, shuts down conversations when he's most stressed gruff, and brash where do you see the expectations for tonight? >> well, listen i'm a yearly j.d. vance is a yalee. you can't get out a yield without knowing and p

smaller one down the street >> ago less than that, cnn's harry enten is here. with us. okay. what on this question of what could be behind and motivating the shift in messaging and strategy here, what have you found? >> yeah, what have we found? let's talk about donald trump in his popularity. you know, i think there are a lot of folks such as myself who think that donald trump's unpopularity is baked in but here's the deal if you believe that donald trump has somehow become less popular over time, let me change your mind about that. in fact, he is more popular at this point in the campaign than he was at this point in the 2020 campaign, or the 2016 campaign. look, he still underwater right? with a negative nine point net favorability rating but that is higher than it wasn't 2020 -12 points when he nearly one and it is way higher than the -27 net favorability back in 2016 when he did when so i think there's this real question in kamala harris is mined in the campaigns mind why is trump more popular now than it was at this point in 2020 and 2016. and i think that is why you're

there she is getting off her air force two and it's gonna harry enten now he joins me now from the magic wall and obviously she's now in wisconsin is just going to speak and she'll be in michigan tomorrow, harry. so is trump. but let's just take a step back here from, as you see it, can she get to to 270 without those states? it'll be very tough, erin. >> so let's sort of look, we're going to look at the road to 270 electoral votes will give donald trump the state of georgia georgia, where he's leading the polls, will give him north carolina where he has perhaps a slight advantage in the polls. and will give him the state of arizona where he has a slight advantage in the polls that gets him to 262 electoral votes. kamala harris has path to 270 electoral votes, runs through the great lakes, right? we've been talking a ton about pennsylvania, right? let's give her that will give her michigan as well. and then we'll give her wisconsin. what does that get? kamala harris to exactly 270 electoral votes. now, if she loses in wisconsin will turn that state red. now all of a sudden, donald trump

. >> after a quick break, stay with us for our new class pet, we have a special guest, cnn's harry enten well folks, we got a race for the ages here with nibbles, the hamster jumping out to a ten point advantage over jaws, the goldfish, big brand recognition, but it isn't translating in a boat. >> so what the heck is going on in here? >> swim can be done pilk and so sorry, it's a decent assessment >> the supreme prince business cards. but we also print these and those and a grave that we print your brand on everything. so customers can notice do you remember you've been fall in love with you if you need it, we print it with 25%, offer new customers at misprint.com. >> what would you pay for an ipad pro? i only paid $42 on vilda's you'll dash.com online auction since 2009. >> this playstation 5s sold for only $0.50 and this smart charcoal grill sold for $16 and this nintendo switch sold for less than $20. deals like these. and many more happen in the thousands of daily auctions on deal dash.com all options start at $0 and remember, everything must go. >> i got this kitchen aid stand mixer