so, as long as i am the head of the imf, it is the imf and the membership that has my complete dedication it's 10:29 a.m. in hong kong and shanghai, 9:29 p.m. here in new york i'm karina mitchell with the first word headlines. the latest gauge of manufacturing in china shows activity moderate it that's moderated slightly this month. the official pmi reading delta 51.9 from 22.1, fractionally lower than the estimate from bloomberg survey. came in at 55.7. china remains the only major economy to show growth this year. surprisenews, a current account deficit, the shortfall the equivalent of $1.5 billion. economists had expected a surplus of about $800 million. overall indicators show continued recovery. a highly private chinese tycoon has become asia's richest person this year after a meteoric rise. soared more than $70 billion in 2020. 11th richest person on the planet with a fortune of $77.8 billion. itsh korea will hold congress and month despite concerns over covid-19.

countryminister, the has a standby arrangement with the imf. approachxpecting to the international monetary fund for a nonfinancial agreement to reassure investors when that expires? we are still in the current one. we have not finished yet. we have not looked at this year. with the imfhip .ill continue also, nothing is ruled out. previous one,he solutions.t for aed the imf nonfinancial arrangement. this was before covid 19. adjusted.-19 came, we say we need to leave some and nothing is ruled out. yousef: the other issue is around your reference to try to bring in more capital inflows. the last time we spoke you were trying to get your debt to become clear a bowl. what steps are outstanding and when will it finally get there? there were some , such asnts establishing a new company, make .dditional legal requirements requirements now, getting the company to manage it is clear. we are moving at a very good pace. our expectation is for progress in 2021. yousef: what about getting listed in the jp morgan bond index? that has been an absolutely crit

the first woman to head the law firm, the finance minister in europe, imf and the central bank of europe. being underestimated now i said to her tongue-in-cheek the real success as a youngster she was a synchronized around the french national team maybe there's something to synchronize the main we can learn. she knows how to get along with people and have them to follow her. the trick is a leader you have to have people to follow you can be a leader nobody follow so she's good for people to follow you pay being a good communicator. to say this is what we should do and to inspire them but the best way to be a leader is not only through words or writing but by example. so i like to give the example when george washington of valley forge he didn't have to stay there with his troops in 1977 freezing he could've went to the seasons in downtown delta but he didn't because he stayed with his troops and that's what made them loyal to him. >> talking to ruth bader ginsburg it is the apparent that they have to achieve to get up as they are not picked out for those who make the choices. >> the amaz

calledd of the imf has for a $500 billion issuance.united states, we were talking about a minute earlier, how we have had this massive assistance, over $3 trillion fiscal and another 3.5 troy in dollars monetary support. -- $3.5 trillion monetary support. poor countries don't have that amount. the amount of money they have been able to muster, to fight the disease the fight at the .conic aftermath, minuscule this $500 billion given in proportion to what they call the quotas would be an enormous help to theseeveloping countries and emerging markets. one person alone stands between , and thatce of this is the secretary of treasury under president trump, mnuchin. he has not given any good reason for not doing that. i hope one of the first things that bd secretary of treasury will do once they take office. amy: this pandemic will force many countries into a debt crisis. what is being done to alleviate this? >> almost nothing. i was worried before the pandemic that too many developing couries were getting overly indebted. make loans.los to

helge berger is an assistant director in the imf asia and pacific department and an adjunct professor of monitor economics at free university of berlin where he served as a tenured, where he served as a tenured full professor. he has taught at princeton as well. ann rutledge is a founding principle of the 20-year-old credit ratings advisory firm credit spectrum, she's an expert on the logic of capital market development and testifies before the use senate, an adviser to hong kong's monetary authorities and is just one of the leading experts on all issues related to credit. logan wright is director at rhodium group, leads the firms china market research. he's also nonresident adjunct fellow with us in the trustee chair at csis. previously logan was head of china research for advisors and shine analyst with stone and mccarthy research associates both inpatient and he is joining us from hong kong today. i'm going to turn things over to joyce first and then helge, ann, and logan in that order and can look at questions from the audience. joyce, over to you. >> thank you so much, scott. it'

will the imf pick up and move to beijing? that is an interesting question. number two, the chinese can spend as much as we do on defense if they choose to, but they spend it in the pa evening where we're spread around the globe. this creates prompts for the military with the wealth concentrated this is enabled by the open door to trade we have had history -- historically with china trump's tariffs notwithstanding. lauren: peter, thank you very much. >> you're welcome. pleasure to be with you. lauren: bitcoin on fire. 27,000 and change. how lie could the cryptocurrency can go and is it too light for you to get in? businesses brace as joe biden prepares to take office as he vows to make unions the top priority of his administration but will he put an end to the entrepreneurial spirit? we'll have that later this hour. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a short list of quality candidates from our resume database. claim your seventy five dollar credit, when you po

economics correspondent for "the wall street journal" and as an advisor to the executive director of the imf and policy analyst at the british treasury european commission. he's also an author understanding the economic indicators that delve deeply into the statistics. thank you for writing this book and i look forward to your presentation. over to you. just give me a minute while i share my presentation. >> it's never been more important that the system and the business and the leadership and the security and i can't think of anyone in the world that holds those pieces together more than the team so i'm delighted that they would host this. thank you for holding this all together. the audience is there and see the kind of obligation to buy a copy of the book. when you do a book launch in the internet perhaps that is there so before i start the presentation i would like everyone to raise their right hand and repeat after me. i pledge that immediately after the presentation i will order a copy. that is the compulsory part and i'm not and the unreasonable man so feel free to follow along if you

the imf predicts the company -- country will contract by 7% this year. >> let's bring in the directorf the institute for middle is -- middle east studies. has the arab spring changed things enough in your view? >> in some ways, yes. undoubtedly, the political situation now is different to what it was when the revolution began, but arguably there are still very serious economic albums -- problems and there is frustration amongst the general population about the situation and about the country's economic prospects and if and when the country's porches -- fortunes will improve. >> it is safe to say this is not over? >> no, not at all. obviously economics is different from politics to our closely -- the two are closely interlinked. the success of the revolution and this democratic project rests at least in part upon his ability to provide tunisians with an adequate standard of living which at the moment, for a variety of reasons is struggling to do. >> this is one of the problems, perhaps a nostalgia for wt people might see as the good old days. >> i think within parts of the population,

no one believes that except for cia and the imf. and anybody who looks at the facts.ry: right. >> china's now the number one economy. nobody understands that china is the number one trading partner of virtually everybody. so this has all happened so rapidly. in my book i quote the former czech president who says things have happened so fast, we haven't yet had time to be astonished. i think what the trump administration was representing was kind of the awakening, alarm, astonishment at the notion that we thought we had, we had a baby tiger. bob iger has a good analogy. he says it's as if somebody gave us a cub tiger 20 years ago and played with the children and we always thought how cute it was. we left it in the country house for 20 years and fort about it. we came back and now we see this tiger that's consumed the staff there and threatening to eat us. gerry: biden says and biden's people say the way to deal with china, we need allies to do that, key allies in europe and in asia too. but there's a problem for many of those countries, aren't there? they face tremendo

. >> earlier in the year, iran did apply to the imf for a loan to help them tackle the covid pandemic was rejected and iran blamed the united states. they could be that sometimes countries and companies are afraid -- it could be that sometimes countries and companies are afraid to do business with iran because of those sanctions, even if they are not directly affected. the health minister says the consignment was stopped by the united states. they blamed the united states for stopping the flu vaccine from getting to iran. iran did hit one million coronavirus infections earlier this month, the worst hit country in the middle east, but officials here say they are working on their own covid vaccine. if trials are successful, they hope to roll back out in early summer of 2021. >> british scientists, meanwhile, say people with a history of significant allergic reactions should not get the pfizer vaccine. this is after two people suffered adverse effects. more from charlie angela. >> britain's rollout of the pfizer vaccine continues, but advice on who can take it is changing. up to two peop

according to the imf.nemployment rates and most advanced countries are still above historical averages. i don't see any risk of inflation in the near term. .ertainly a pickup manus: that's a new one on the show. if you go to the gold round, i saw summit he who bought 6000 contracts of $3000 options for christmas 2021. stay with me. my guess this morning. elias haddad. your first word news flow this new year's eve. temperature issues have delayed over 140,000 doses of moderna vaccine bound for texas. several shipments showed signs of having strayed from the required temperature and have to be replaced. moderna vaccine must be kept frozen for shipment and storage. this underscores the obstacle the u.s. is facing and rolling out the vaccine. the uk's post-brexit trade deal has cleared parliament was less than 24 hours to spare. they gave the dream light before the transition ends and the u.k. leaves the single market at 11:00 u.k. time. thankednister johnson members of parliament for backing the legislation.

we see our we are far away at least in the projections of the staff of the ecb but also the imf, so wear from going back to the no hold inflation level. also with the solid anchoring of inflation expectations, they have something to do on that. my understanding is that when the time comes, when inflation is picking up, in europe in particular, it would be natural of course to have nominal interest rates higher, and i would not dramatize the way things will go back to a more normal position. i would certainly say that they would go back to precrisis situation. question, if we could come the eloquent economist olivia blinn chard has led the charge and reflate think. "balance of power." --how does jean-claude trichet reflate? jean-claude: i would say reflation is the rule of the game, the reason why the central banks are so active themselves and accommodating. .he goal is there these centrald, banks are not the only game in town. i would say something that i already told you, we have bargaining power of labor in had employment that is insufficient and that --low augmentation of salaries,

just reporting on the european update at the imf i love this. the 2020 discussions on, nero area policies, what -- on euro area policies. they've got a problem in europe, and it starts with an 8.3% slump and only a 5.2% rebound. do the mass. that's not good. lisa: the concern, the euro area is at risk of a slower recovery than what we previously expected, and they are urging more support. when you start to have the urgency tamped down a little bit as we start to get a vaccine getting circulated, as we start to get some of the money that is already approved out there, what then? will that be the political will to incur more debt to pump more money into the system, as many people think is needed? tom: and you wonder what that will be. we talked to brian leven about this in a moment, the struggles of europe versus the united states and the stimulus we saw today. there's green on the screen ofer the tumult yesterday. a 6% plus move in the dow yesterday. the vix comes in a full stick off of the recovery yesterday. 23.8.from 31 to 23, on the vix nasda

tom: i am going to go imf green book on you, the same financial stability report. there are all of these crosscurrents. the great presumption is that these are smooth curves and things believes into the future. are we underplaying the tail risk, or shocks and jump conditions that we could see within the price of fixed income? robert: yes and no, we are seeing it every day, men -- many bungee jobs and intraday movements. by the time you get to the end of it, there is volunteered -- volatility. happy birthday, by the way. at the announcement rate of the ecb and the tenure swap rate. traverse,that used to 100 basis points during the 2015 to 2018 period. that is when they went to the big qe, and they had 100 days of point range. yield, wein 10 year have not seen a 100 basis point range, we have seen maybe 80. the overall range of fluctuation has been compressed, and the reason is that the central banks locked themselves into being stock at their lower bounds. downhat is really pulling one end of the yield curve with increasing conviction. however they are holding it do

morningreat grade this -- a great grid this morning showing relative optimism, and then the street, the imfd .he oecd are we too gloomy? michael: it depends whether you're talking about the near term or the medium-term. i would sayum-term prospects are looking good, certainly given all the news on the vaccine which all of the viewers are aware of. if we get something like the bipartisan stimulus deal combined with a vaccine, that would be set up for a strong 2021, particularly as we get into the spring months. you're talking about the near term. we could be in for some pretty rough months, particulate december, january, given the surge in the virus following the thanksgiving holiday and what that could mean for activity, particularly in consumer services. if you have a short-term view, i think there are reasons for gloom if you look beyond a few months i am quite optimistic on prospects. lisa: tom is just trolling me at this point, saying are we too .loomy and having you way in we keep talking to people about the potential for scarring. there is a question of how many -- of how much people

i go back six and seven years to the imf. -- tryingblanche are to figure out how to reflate.proposed is what we are trying to do now. as blanchardlate tried to tell us to do? george: first of all, let me say happy birthday to you. to answer the question, i think it is very difficult. first of all it is unlikely inflation will end. economists forecast horizons at levels the ecb will be happy with. .5%re talking about levels below where they would like inflation to be. some sort of reflation is required. this is the second tricky point. it is difficult when you've maxed out most of your policies. this is why next year's strategy will be very important. it will look into new techniques and tools they can use. it will see how they can make the most of their current tools. what tools work best together to do this. when you're talking about are they going to do an extra 10 basis points on interest rates, are they going to do extra 100 billion here or there? it just shows you how difficult it will be. 10 basis points is neither here nor there. it will not be the make or break to pus

the obvious measures that were taken in 2008-'09 support the most wonderful countries including the imf issuing special rights, the recapitalization banks, replacements of soft landing a.r.m.s. they haven't been taken this time. so far adequately to address the burd debt burden in foreign countries. the fact these things haven't happened is a commentary on the state of geo politics but i think it represents a government's failure in leading countries who in the past acted collaboratively in their own self-interests and this is having huge consequences, to go on to the next bit of your question. where humanitarian agencies work, the impact is much worse than having international action. we're going to see an increase in extreme poverty for the first time since the 1990s. by the end of next year 150 million more people will be back in the category of the world bank's extreme poverty measure. that's going to go from less than 600 million before covid to 750 million, roughly speaking by the end of next year. we've seen very they have compromising of health services in the poorest countries

imf chief ishe warning against complacency. expectations are also rising currently. the big unknown? well, the outlook for inflation in the longer term is that it is going to rise. short-term, in order for that to actually happen -- that doesn't look likely within the next year or so. basis, it iserm likely to pick up. rishaad: andrew, thank you very much. time for the morning calls. we look at some of the top analyst recommendations across markets. that and a full market check on the way. this is bloomberg. ♪ biontech says it is wrapping up production of its covid vaccine with pfizer said to be rolled out in the u.k. next week. the vaccine distribution plan and production targets -- we are producing and we will have ready up to 50 million doses this year. we will be sticking to that target. we should be able to provide up to 50 million this year. going into next year, including the 50 million, we anticipate 1.3 billion in total. what i can say is, of course we are ramping up production extremely quickly so that we can get the vaccine to everyone as quickly as possib

the obvious measures that were taken in 2008 and nine supported those poor countries including the imf and that we cap [inaudible] they have not been taken this time and it's been a failure basically so far adequately to address their burden in the poorest countries. i think this is the fact that these things have not happened is obviously common state of geopolitics but i believe it represents a governess failure and countries. having acted cleverly for their water benefit and for their own self interest and this is having huge consequences because in countries where humanitarian agencies were the impact is much worse than it needed be to have international action so we will foran increase in extreme the first since the 1990s by the and of next year probably 150 million more people will be back in the category of the extreme poverty measure and that will grow from less than 6 million before covid to 750 million almost, roughly speaking by the end of next year. we have seen very heavy compromising of health percentages in the poorest countries and that will lead to a reduction i expect

had to ask the imf for a bailout. but we think there are plenty of non-brexit reasons why that gap could continue to remain wide. we expect a bit of closure if overseas investors are enticed back in. we know from the institutional fund manager surveys that they have been avoiding the u.k. for some time but we think that that will continue to remain somewhat wide because the u.k. has outsized exposure to financial companies, oil and gas, whose profits have been held back by structural forces for 10 years. it's the wrong type of value that we want rotating into other parts of the market. exposure to resource extraction may have driven underperformance in a more esg focused world. and you know, the u.k. used to trade at a bit of a premium because it used to have a high quality dividend, but that's much more questionable today in 2020. kailey: new headline just crossing the terminal, the eu commission provisionally applying the trade deal until february 28. can you give us a sense of what exactly that means? david: as bef

with me now is ken rogoff harvard university economist and former chief economist at the imf. good morning. >> good morning. >> so it really is the question what is president trump going to do, is he going to veto it, will he sit on it and let it die before the new congress is in session january 3rd or will he actually sign it? >> i'm only grateful that there's only 25 more days of asking this kind of question. i mean, this is no way to run a country. it's a good bill. yes, there are things both sides could have wanted, but it really does a lot as a stopgap measure to try to pull us through this very difficult situation. it's not just the millions of unemployed. people are being evicted from their homes, it's also all the small businesses and restaurants that are really not being helped by the federal reserve programs, they need direct aid, education, vaccine distribution. there are so many things in this bill that we need now, we need to get going on. it's just a terrible thing that we're being held hostage. >> what do you think the president's motivations are in holding amer

. >> the fale factor in these perilous times from the imf to th european central bank.istine lagarde was the first woman at the helm. now she's unleashing another half trillion euros to keep the economy afloat in a global pandemic. then -- >> we are going to be vainating over the next few months significant numbers of people. >> scottish prime minister nicola sturgeon leads a new push for scottish independence. >> there are five in american food that are directly linked to the

which is the imf for nuclear weapons agreement. i just want to remind folks that this was a huge deal. the idea the you could have a human personal connection with a soviet general secretary that gorbachev came to the u.s. and that the. police seem like a young, intelligent person, and that you could go and rip open the heart of the cold war and get rid of the class of nuclear weapons. what a great thing. reagan leaves office having accomplished an enormous amount in terms of bringing the two sides, you look putting the u.s. in the soviet union on the same side of the railway tracks. the cold war was changing, it was softening, it was kind of falling apart. i do think he gets credit for that. also, reagan spent so much money on the cold war it is been said that he forced the soviets to give in. i think that is a caricature of a much more sophisticated process, in which reagan's -- and good fortune yet why the coal were. >> sounds like you're next autobiography ought to be a ronald reagan. >> first person i voted for in 1984, i vote

that he worked at china economic correspondent for the wall street journal as an advisor to the uk imf and policy analyst at the british treasury and european commission. he is also the author of understanding china's economic indicators which delve deeply into chinese statistics. tom, thank you so much for writing this book and i really look forward to your presentation in the conversation this morning. over to you. >> thank you very much. just give me a minute while i share my presentation. is that working? >> that looks fantastic. >> if i move it, does it move? >> it does. >> it really has never been more important that all of us understand not just china's economy but the intersection between the economy, the financial system, the leadership, security. i cannot think of anyone in the world who pulls these pieces together smartly and more comprehensively than the team. i am delighted that they would host this. thank you for helping to pull this together. so, as i prepare to launch my book on the internet, i was thrilled to be doing it with cis, but when you do a book launch in perso

went in with three priority one, -- two, irs funding and for those of you who can guess the third, imf quote increase in which we finally got in 2015. 2015. we just bought like crazy for them against tons of resistance and were wholly unsuccessful in those fights. not whole -- got eroded. i worry but i would love to from doug on that. >> i think your worries are well-founded. this has never been a successful area. they did get together to do some serious partisan reforms of the irs and structure a little while back and the money to support those reforms is necessary. that's the bipartisan case to be made that you need to piggyback on that effort to put money in place to be successful. that raises the probability in this case, but i think it's fair to expect expected to be a tou. maybe in the first draft appropriations bill in the house but then when they get to complex enough to start pulling stuff out of my prediction is it will be when the first things to go. always has. >> let me try to add additional optimism because i promise to bring that today. but the good role israel from the

herell, i am glad to see that both the imf and the central bank of india have very clearly seen goode third quarter, and the fourth quarter. , astherefore i think that once i said earlier, even this year, we should be able to shrug off a lot of what baggage fell on us in the first quarter. a sustained good positive recovery is what i see from the beginning of the next fiscal come from of the first quarter of the next fiscal year. haslinda: what kind of economy will drive growth going forward? are you perhaps concerned consumption could take ahead now that the festivals season is over? >> well, it india, you are right in saying that the festivals season drives a lot of additional demand, which is otherwise not prevalent during the year. however, the festival season may have started in september, but it normally lasts until the middle of january, because of different regions having different localized festivals, which also drive demand. but post that, the season is soft. summer and summer has its own demands coming from the rural areas. the specific question you asked about what kind o

economists come back online, the imf forecasts, that's a very good backdrop for oil commodities, in particulard copper. targeted fiscal policy. it was more broad-based across the board. that is the support going forward. that's casting a shadow over everything these days, the coronavirus. in sydney, we had this recent outbreak at beaches. there hearing from minister announcing h new cases of community transmission in the past 24 hours so that is encouraging some modest easing of restrictions for the christmas period. how much of a risk factor was this uncertainty over the coronavirus outbreak in australia creating? george: it is a big uncertainty. equity markets on friday questioning it. starting off the day before last. travel and leisure stocks in australia and this happens on the back of these cases. aggregate earnings in the travel and leisure industry are going to expand on the back of all that stimulus measures. banks expanding balance sheets. that liquidity will persist. our birgit earnings will expand in australia. it will expand globally as well. there are significant challenges of co

the result is not special to the service model, you find in the imf models, you find it in both of the large-scale macroeconomic models though ecd uses, the fiscal expansion reduce the death of gdp ratio. the last paper also checks the modeling and works in countries even at relatively high debt level. demand is something that we are concerned about even in normal times, the interest rate that might be required to absorb the saving might be unattainable negative number, we need to view the economy towards greater demand with the slow growth to prevent the risk associated with low interest rates, one way of doing that that we discussed on the previous panel is automatic recession and i love to spend hours talking about all the way we can design triggers in a shortage of ideas that we just need to do it especially important in the united states where the automatic stabilizers largelytively weak because of our government compared to other ones. the second, tre is a lot we can do tos increase demand in a budget neutral matter, the balance multiplier is fiscal expansionary and more progress

on the subcommittee of the house of financial services committee that works with the world bank and imfave had numerous meetings during the pandemic about how the world bank and the international monetary fund is going to support these very debt burdened developing countries struggling with covid-19. you have a global effort in europe, asia, the world bank, on the international monetary fund, along with the united states. ant: between now and eventual passage, what's the message to your fellow congresspeople about passing a bill on covid relief? guest: the american people, from business to health care, school and our governors, they want targeted covid-19 relief and we should, between now and december 18 find bipartisan agreement and send president trump a bill that he can sign into law. host: before you go, revisiting the topic of government funding, when do you think another bill will be passed and what is being worked on as far as extending the funding of government? guest: well, whenever you have a transition between president, you have a bigger debate about spending. i would hope t

you find it in the imf model. it in both of the large-scale macroeconomic models the oecd uses. find the result that fiscal expansions reduce the debt to gdp ratio. paper also checked that this worked in countries even at relatively high debt levels. i said, is something that we are concerned about even in normal times. the interest rate that might be required to absorb all of the savings might be an unattainable negative nominal number. we need to gear the economy towards a greater demand to prevent that slow growth in normal times, to prevent the risks associated with low-interest rate. one way of doing that which was just discussed, is automatic recession insurance. i would love to spend hours talking about all the ways we can design triggers. let's just say there is no shortage of ideas. we just need to do it. it is especially important in the u.s., where the automatic stabilizers are relatively weak, largely because of the relatively small size of our government as compared to other ones. the second, this is a lot we can do to increase demand in a budget controlled manner.

the imf forecasting in october that gdp in china is likely to jump 8.2%, which is almost two percentage than it was in 2020. you have to ask yourself here, you know, is that a coincidence? >> well you know as well as i do china is extremely highly controlled society. we don't know what the true facts are relative to the overall health of the population. we do know that china is growing exponentially. they're investing around the world. their one belt, one road strategy is what caused the pandemic in northern italy with the railroad they're building and infrastructure they're building. they're into africa. they're into south america. china is going to grow despite what the rest of us do. we better pay attention to it, they will dominate in this world in ways we do not like. jackie: we know that is their goal. that is what they want to do. it is interesting to see how it is all playing out. ed rensi, great to see you, happy new year. see you in 2021. >> you as well. jackie: fitness goals looking a little different this year due to the pandemic. grady trimble has the details. ♪. robinhood

but when you look at the economy, the world, according to imf in 2021 is going to be $91 trillion thenited states is 24.1. china is 18.5 of that. and europe is only about 18% so the economy in china is doing extremely well vaccines will have a lot of air pockets, a lot of speed bumps. what you were worried about this morning is going to happen in a variety of ways but we will solve the problems just like we did small pox, hiv, ebola. the engineering minds of the world coming together could solve global problems. so i think the economy next year is going to be quite good. in addition to that, sara, when you look at the election in 2022, the midterm election, if i was running the house and the presidency, i would want a strong economy in the spring of that year. so i want to push my infrastructure year somewhere in the second and third quarters to get that going for that time period so also a lot of pluses. >> yeah. that's certainly something that the biden administration is vocal about, that based on what the economy does, 2022 will be the report card and what happens in those mid term

there's just irrational ex youtubexexeberance about the imf the vaccine.rd of americans that say they won't take it. my guess is with peer pressure that will change. this economy has been harmed by the covid-19 pandemic. you look at travel, hospitality, state municipal governments have been hurt. there's a huge digging out process. we'll have stronger earnings growth in certain sectors and we'll have gdp growth but we're still in a very depressed state. unemployment is relatively -- looks fairly stable but 2 to 3% of the labor participation rate has been pulling out of people actually looking for jobs. so in our view the real unemployment rate is more like 8 or 9%. there's been real harm done. i think the market has fully baked in the rebound from the pandemic. we think it's overshot. maria: so, i mean, the atlanta fed has 11% growth for the fourth quarter. i mean, they are expecting growth to resume in the fourth quarter and then 2021. you say the vaccine's baked in. how do you invest in this environment? how are you allocating capital? >> well, we're all

so from the point of view that you're asking, we -- the imf put out $102 trillion gdp.rope's lockdown is going to have an impact, japan is 5, 6, they'll benefit from china and exports. the u.s. consumer's in great shape in terms of certain sectors. and this bill will help those that need to have healthcare and cash flow for the time being until we can open up jobs. so the economy should be quite well. the corporate profits will be a little impacted by the weakness in the u.s. dollar because of the currency impact. they will be impacted by the gross margin narrowing because of ppp costs and taxes, you know, probably on a cash basis they will go up. book, i don't know. clearly -- but then the multiple is the question for stocks and there's a lot of sectors that will do extremely well. maria: all right. let's talk about those and how you're allocating capital right now, mario. you are a stock picker and you've been a darn good one over the years. i know you were looking at infrastructure companies and also bedding companies. how are you allocating capital? where are you go