jamie dimon has news that's moving the market around >> jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon upgrading the fed'st, they waited too long and did too little, and qt should have started sooner, but they're clearly catching up, they're clearly motivated to catch up from here, let's all wish them success and keep our finger crossed that they manage to slow down the economy that whatever it is is mild. i wouldn't take that off >> last guy who said that was john taylor. yeah, they messed up, but maybe they can mix it. did the fed wait too long to act and do too little? joining us are steve liesman and rick santelli. do either of you think that something not horrific can happen from here or is it too late, rick, i'll start with you is there a 10% possibility that there's a soft landing >> i would say that there's probably more like a 30% chance that there's a soft landing. the problem is that the 70% is so much bigger that it isn't i can't tell you where it's going to come from, but i will tell you this. anybody who looks towards history will have a hard time finding any central bank that likes to exit

we have the exclusive interview with jamie dimon chairman and ceo of jpmorgan chase.his read on the health of the u.s. economy >> what is your read on the u.s. economy based on what you aring seeing at jpmorgan chase >> i think you have two things in mind. currently the u.s. economy is doing well consumers have money fiscal stimulus. they have more than they had before spending 10% more than last year 35% more than pre-covid. balance sheets are in great shape. debts have gone up even in recession, they will be in better shape than 2008 and 2009 you can't talk about the economy without talking about stuff in the future this is serious stuff. this is inflation which is changing the effect of the numbers. it is rates going up more than people expected already and probably more from here. it is qt which we never had before you see the bond markets around the world and sovereign markets and people selling u.s. treasury debt and the war these are serious things that will likely push the u.s. and the world -- europe is already in recession likely of putting u.s. in some kind

so that's jamie dimon there.regory, and good to have you now and bring you in especially now given what you have heard, i hope, mr. jamie dimon suggests, he called it serious stuff, and the war affect could have a possible 20% additional drop in stocks, and his advice is to be prepared you heard him just say, and what he said earlier, quote, if you need money, raise it he talked about the credit markets were orderly, and what is your initial reaction to all that >> i think jamie chooses his words carefully, and rightfully so, and what he just said i have been saying for quite sometime, and i do not have the luxury of how many people listen to diamond. number one, he talked about a strong consumer, and that has been true. they have spent more than they did precovid, but at the same time that has been debt financed, scott. we had a record 229 million credit line openings in the first quarter and then set another record of 233 million in the second quarter, and we were doing that while we were nearing all-time highs

doving out a bit jamie dimon is a really smart guy.t be he's saying things could be really bad, maybe trying to tweak the fed's thinking a little bit? is she crazy like a fox? we'll see. it doesn't get better when you get gran ullr. it's a tiktok world, and we all just live in it. i would view this as a semipositive yes, if you own them, you've gotten hit, but if you have capital to allocate, i don't think amazon is going away i'll bet they'll be significantly higher a decade from now, right? >> i think so, i hope so, and i'm pretty certain about that. look, the space, consumer tech, consumer internet has ham are for reasons we all know. that's the setup you have to think 12 months from now, what will it look like? we had 15-year highs in revenue growth rates that meant we had, you know, multiyear lows in terms of the year-to-year growth rates, but the costs start normalizing. i hope, i assume, and we they have at evercore that inflation will definitely have moderated we hopefully will have worked through, hopefully won't be that steep

>> i agree with jamie dimon and it is darkening and i believe the extent of which has gone negative and one way or another, we are entering kind of a darker period and everyone knows that and can't see it are clearly missing the boat and one thing investors should be paying attention to and jamie dimon made was the building of long lost reserves in anticipation of what a lot of these banks are going to view as tougher times ahead for the consumer with bigger defaults and i see that with jamie dimon or someone else indicating combined with a $1 trillion level with loan loss reserves put aside by the banks in general and it's a fairly big number. ashley: how do investors play this market and yesterday was a classic example of extreme volatility and algorithms and need certain phrases and words and boom, we're off to the races up or down. how do you navigate that, kenny? >> well, listen, it's difficult to navigate for sure and strategies and algorithms whip the market around and as a day trader, it's great because you love the noise. as long term, stick to the plan and stay focused and loo

much more. >> jamie dimon's views have been dismissed. people like jamie dimon have been forecasting recession for months and despite giving a bounce today look under the hood. we have 6 stocks with 52-week highs. the difficulty with losing the markets is getting back is so difficult. netflix down 64% and a 70% return to tech stocks that are very low. neil: the harder they fall the more they come back. how are you playing this? >> more aggressively. i'm seeing a lot of people load up that side of the boat that are too bearish. netflix down big. amazon, talk about pepsi and chitos, to buy off amazon, that is true. amazon is down 40% or 35%, that doesn't seem sensible but it is true and an opportunity. i should retract my job application to jpmorgan because this is a guy who talked about significant upside in bitcoin in may and is a huge skeptic in september. you have him and others talking a 20% pool back in the markets, i am going to the other side because everyone is too bearish and negative. stuart: when you are talking about this in cr

last week he was warning of economic hurricanes coming but today, jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon apparently>> over esg. let me unpack this a little bit. a lot has been going on by jamie dimon and comments he made by environmental government edicts, whether they are carried too far. he gave a fireside chat, essentially the u.s. is disarming itself on its economic policy by allowing esg to dictate a rollback of drilling for oil. he says, he was saying this is a real problem for the world. problem for the economy. so i went back and said, asked some people around him who know him, who have to deal with him on a daily basis, what is real belief on esg? jpmorgan was a big believer in esg. here is how they put it. the context is interesting. they remind me jamie always has been a democrat. he considers himself a liberal but here is where it gets interesting. he is growing increasingly concerned that radical progressives are dictating corporate policies essentially through the es g-man dates. that it is hurting the nation's economic policy. that causing them to pull back. and what he is really, wh

maria: and he has a really good sense of things, jamie dimon does and for him to say the market willg off and will be largely in the recession in six months is significant but the fed as you mentioned keeps, they have or adamant, doesn't matter, we will keep raising rates until we kill inflation. the consequences are the consequences. so, you know, unfazed. >> i had a barbecue with my clients on friday. they came to my office and we did barbecue event. kind of the consensus opinion amongst my clients was i'm okay if the market sells off. i want to fight inflation. my standard of living, my quality of life is being eroded. i'm okay can some short-term pain so that we can fix the core problem which is inflation. so, you know, the only -- as you mentioned the fed has been relentlessly hawkish and the market continues to try to call the fed's bluff, you know, as if there's going to be a pivot or something like that. i think the fed is going the stay the course and i think the fed is going to keep pumping the brakes and i think the fed needs to do it not just for the stake of stocks, if i

liberty.♪ >>> in a new interview with jamie dimon, he warned the u.s. ll doing well at the moment but warned that there are daunting headwinds. >> you can't talk about the economy without talking about the stuff in the future and this is serious stuff. you see it today in bond markets around the world and people selling u.s. treasury debt. it's the war. these are very, very serious things which i think are likely to push the u.s. and you know, the world, europe is already in a recession. the likelihood of putting the u.s. in a recession six to nine months from now. >> joining me is julia. she conducted with interview with dimon in london. thanks so much for being with us. is jamie dimon in the mainstream here for predicting 20 points down, recession, mid to next year or is he an outlier? >> thank you so much for having me. there are certainly concerns around the market, around the direction of the u.s. economy and the key take away is that the future carries a number of risk. in particular, the war in ukraine and how that evolves and how the u.s. economy

. >> right none on "fast," the s&p could drop another 20% from here that's who jpmorgan show jamie dimon is saying and adds that the next 20 will be much more painful than the first 20. why jamie is so bearish and what the traders think of his latest storm warning. >>> plus, auto stocks hitting the skids. gm and ford following after analysts say that we're just a few months away from a natural auto glut. how did we go from three years of unprecedented pricing margin power to oversupply in just a flash? >>> later, so much for safe havens, gold not exactly glittering, crypto crumbling and bond funds this year, well-known ones have performed even worse than the s&p 500 where can the investors hide in the rough and tumble market? i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money" on the desk, courtney garcia, kiaren fine per and guy adami there was this forecast on how much farther the s&p could fall according to jamie dimon. >> may have a way to fall. depends on soft landing, hard landing, it's hard for me to answer that. it could be another easy 20%, and i think like the next 0% will be much more painf

the imf, world bank and jamie dimon all talking recession. is lower, aussie is lower on that story as well. dimon talks about the next 100 basis points as being the next most painful level. covid zero is set to be extended. and the bond market continues to react viciously to the gilt market moves yesterday evening in u.s. treasuries. tom: and you had four straight days of losses, it looks like futures bear this out, setting ourselves up for a fifth straight day of losses. a long way to go in terms of u.s. equities and stocks. goldman sachs saying it is not time for the fed to pivot, they are short equities in the short-term. e-mini-futures losses of .5%. europe ended in the red yesterday by about .2%, you are seeing further losses despite unity around the need for support in the energy crisis. it is loans, not grants, that is the importance but you have germans aligning with southern europeans on that front. a couple of individual corporate's. we have the story of renault, as they try and restructure this two decade alliance. we saw upside ye

let's go there first of all to jp, what are you looking for for jamie dimon -- from jamie dimon's bigk? gerard: i think what we have to look for is obviously how are they doing in their investment banking and capital markets businesses? more importantly, since those numbers are then guided to buy many big banks and the investment banking business revenues could be down as much as 50% year-over-year, trading revenues could be flat to down, but it is the net interest margin. you have been talking about it all morning about interest rates, they rise in the fed funds rate has been favorable to jp morgan and his peers as the margins have expanded. he the -- the other thing we have to watch is jp morgan, the rising long-term interest rates hitting their bond portfolio. this company has to take the unrealized loss not only from gap capital but the regulatory capital. that will be another focus point. and of course the reserve delta under current expected credit loss accounting, they will have to build up that this quarter. lisa: i'm curious to understand the context jamie dimon was speaking

i called jamie dimon, and he said, i don't want the firm.e said if you force me to do it, i will pay you two dollars a share. that made it easy on me. as a result, we called our board in, and we are thinking we are going to go out of business. david: at one point, you are on the phone with the secretary of the fed, the head of the new york fed, and they say you should file for bankruptcy. you slam the phone down on them. was that easy to do? john: for me, it was easy to do. thank god i left out some four letter words. i said i will take the firm down first. i cannot tell you why i did it because in my gut, it was the wrong thing to do. david: now after you retire, you decided to write a book about your life story. how hard is it to sit down and write about your life and go through the good and bad things. do you ever say, why did i agree to do this? john: no, i enjoyed sitting down and working with the person who wrote the book. i have a lot of memories, a lot of names that i did that in talking with him came up -- it came up, other things i

fed language, concern from jamie dimon on the economy looks like another down, down.morrow now into overtime with scott wapner >>> all right. sara, thank you very much. welcome to overtime. i'm scott wapner you heard the bells and we're getting started from here at post nine from the no stock exchange in a little bit i will speak to the analyst who sent merck shares surging on why he said it's a stellar stock for your portfolio. our talk of the tape, jamie dimon on the record on the market on the economy and your money and why he says stocks could have a lot more downside to go if things get worse for the economy. if you need money, go out and raise it he said let's bring in asset management dan greenhouse for his reaction to that which we'l

into profits and leaders you across the world expect a weakening backdrop over the coming year, jamie dimon warning the country is months away from a recession and the stock market will likely keep selling off. the imf expected to downgrade its global growth forecast later today as third quarter earnings kick off and inflation cuts into profits. the latest inflation reading out this week with the producer price index coming out tomorrow and consumer price index out on thursday. retail sales coming out on friday. this morning, futures are down again, take a look at the trip he he'll digit decline with the dow industrials down 256, s&p down 36, nasdaq lower by 109. yesterday the dow, s&p and nasdaq finished down for a fourth session in a row, the nasdaq closing at the lowest level in more than two years with the dow down 93, nasdaq down 110. the 10 year moving up by 6.6 basis points right now, sitting at a level of 3.956%. as the 30 year reaches the highest level in nine years, the 30 year rate at 3.921% this morning, up 7 and-a-half basis points. oil prices this morning look like this, as we

here is what on jamie dimon's mind. didn't quite say it this way but you can read between the lines. it is not just his mind but david solomon there from goldman sachs, jpmorgan's bank, larry fink couldn't make it, sent representatives, big asset manager at blackrock. what is on their mind we're fumbling the relationship the saudis. they're not perfect, far from it. assassination of can showngy, khashoggi, but they are the best over there. liz: israel is. >> in the arab world. by the way supporter of israel, tacitly. liz: underneath the table. >> but they are not little lidge rent, and they're a divider, not divider a bulwark against iran's ambition. liz: that is true. >> they have oil. the chinese are kissing up to them like crazy now. what jamie dimon, what larry fink, what i believe david solomon, what i understand they're telling the biden administration is back off the belligerence okay? we need them. they need us and you know, the saudis have a side here. okay biden thought he had a deal, right, that they were goi

remaining focused on a lot of things, but jamie diming to our colleague julianna tuttlebaum, and jamie dimon things the economy could -- and the overall economy is starting to teeter. >> you see it today in bond markets around the world, and people selling u.s. treasury debt it's the war these are very, very serious things, which i think are likely to push the u.s. and the world -- europe is already in a recession, and likely to put the u.s. in some kind of recession 6, 9 months from now. >> that's a big call from an flussial ceo, and economists tend to agree. a new survey shows they are ramping up the odds of a recession. steve liesman has more do they agree with jamie dimon >> pretty much just as the nationality big economics, upping their chance of recession and downgrading growth for this year first, i said to tell you that fed governor lael brainard also agrees she said she was marking down her economic outlook, and i quote -- i now expect the second-half rebound last quarter limited and real gdp growth will be essentially flat this year. i don't think fed governors gig anything lower t

jamie dimon from j.p. morgan chase saying we're likely headed to a recession by mid 2023.he said we have a economic hurricane ahead of us. so you know, these ceos are looking at their businesses and the economy overall and seeing how policy is having an impact. in that interview, david solomon said there would be issues with this administration and how it proceeds forward. it's those policies that would impact how long said recession would last. so that's what the big ceos have -- they have their pulse on the business out there. that's what people need to be thinking about, especially ahead of the mid-terms. policies matter. >> as we are learning closely. brian, would you have a bone to pick with mr. solomon, mr. bezos on the bloomberg projections? >> you know, i have a bone to pick with those guys on some things. on the projections of a recessions, i don't have a bone to pick. i think we're in a recession. we've had two quarters of negative gdp. that's a recession. the question is how deep it gets. what all these ceos are saying, their concern it gets deeper. they live in

jamie dimon warning about cracks in this credit market. you seeing any cracks in the private capital credit markets? kipp: thanks for having me. what i would say as of now is not yet. jamie dimon obviously has a pretty broad view of the world. something to watch for for sure. when we look through our portfolio come base today, although we expect likely defaults to go up this year with the increase in rates and tougher debt service environment , i would probably join him in predation the next six to nine months to get more difficult. today we are really not seeing it. dani: what does the call cycle look like? we skipped it during the covid you're a parent bad does it get? -- during the covid era. how bad does it get? kipp: we do not see it from a historic perspective. the default rate is below what you would see in terms of historical averages, so i would expect if we get through the back half of this fall into next year we will see it trend up turn -- toward the historical average but i do not see an uncomfortable environment. alix: where

some of the things jamie dimon is quoted saying not so good things about the saudis.r if that's a side show i wonder if canada going to pump more, are we going to pump more? the oil people i deal with truly dislike the president and are holding oil back because they want to make money for the shareholders if they felt they could have a photo op with the president, they would feel more inclined. the president is under a lot of heat from business people. business relationships are very important. >> i think they recognize they maybe are a tad insular. we'll see if that changes after midterm. >> jpmorgan is up four wonder if they're mad. the president is seething. >> jim, we'll see you on tonight, "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time, wrapping up a big week for us on "squawk on the street." we'll stay on top of the market volatility pretty steady open dow up 200 don't go away. >>> with welcome back to "squawk on the street. rick santelli. the last of the breaking news of a wild week. first of all, business inventories for august, up 0.8%. follows up 0.6%, unrevised 0.8%,

jpmorgan's jamie dimon, joins top economists mohammed el-erian and larry summers that the u.s.ill be in an avoidable recession next year. house republicans threaten to call in the fbi director to testify over delays in the hunter biden case. plus we've gotten new wrinkles there. the controversy, paypal, warning users could be penalized for misinformation and twitter flip-flops. it suspends, then restores the florida surgeon general's new health warning about kovacs scenes. new concerning warnses about electric cars, climate activists will not tell you about. i'm elizabeth macdonald. "the evening edit" starts right now. ♪. elizabeth: okay. welcome to the show. let's check your money. stocks again end to the downside, trading volatile on mixed economic data, plus interest rate hike fears. russia pounds ukraine with deadly airstrikes after a major supply bridge to "politico" more than 3/4 say violent crime is a major factor in their midterm vote. we have more on the drive-by shooting outside new york gop gubernatorial candidate lee zeldin home while his daughters were hiding insid

. >> double fisted jamie dimon now. with high inflation, as a result rising interest rates. stocks reacted almost instantly to the kwarwarning. the market fell sharply. recovering before the market closed. and what does jamie dimon see he keeps on telling us recession is around the corner? >> more that most. credit card consumers and bank loans. talked about a hurricane a few months ago. his job, he said this to us many times, his job worry about what's coming down the pike and he's worried about all the uncertainties. more uncertainties and headwinds for global economies at one time than i've ever seen. he's warning about some sort of recession in six to nine months. not the only one. bank of america saying you're going to see a recession down the road and that you'll actually start to see job losses sometime next year. two big bank warnings in the last 24 hours. >> i think it's what he means what he sees and had he said the bank is doing. preparing for whatever might be around the corner. so for us folks, individually

richard, what more did you hear from jamie dimon?rough the recession idea, but here are the future investment initiatives there is so much money around, saudi and other gulf people, they come here to basically do business and as part of it discuss what's likely to happen next, and geopolitical issues, by that you're talking russia, ukraine, u.s., china relations. saudi-u.s. relation. eu recession. the uk fiasco. all of these things, they say, are bigger issues than recession. as david solomon of goldman sachs reminded us, recession is still very much out there. >> when you find yourself in an economic scenario like this where inflation is embedded, it's very hard to get out of it without a real economic slowdown. so i, too, am in the camp we likely, likely, have a recession in the u.s. going to have i think, most likely recession, might be in a recession in europe. >> reporter: now, nobody is forecasting a recession or anything like that of the 1980s, but you have to remember, there's an entire generation of people who have no experi

jamie dimon said if the economic environment were to get worse, those provisions can also get biggerut all in all he is saying not only can they navigate the storm, they will remove -- give back to shareholders as well. they are worried about the classic investment banking businesses and also concerns around trading and the longevity of trading is misses as these firms -- trading businesses as these firms take on more risk and you see cracks form in clients around the world may be more constrained. jon: she is addressing some of the looming issues the banks are preparing for, coming into this year there was disbelief that higher interest rates would provide an opportunity for the banks. how did you feel about what you saw in the results today after the rate harks -- hikes we have seen? stephen: coming into the year it looks that way. the problem pivoted when the fed got more aggressive. higher interest rates are generally universally positive for banks and provide a nice tailwind for expansion and you also have a benefit from higher loan growth. at some point higher rates start to cr

. >>> and that the largest head of the bank in the country, jm morgan chief, jamie dimon, has a stark our economy. >> a recession in six to nine months from now. create something new? our dell technologies advisors can provide you with the tools and expertise you need to bring out the innovator in you. announcer: type 2 diabetes? the tools and expertise you need discover the power of 3 in the ozempic® tri-zone. in my ozempic® tri-zone, i lowered my a1c, cv risk, and lost some weight. announcer: ozempic® provides powerful a1c reduction. in studies, the majority of people reached an a1c under 7 and maintained it. ozempic® lowers the risk of major cardiovascular events such as stroke, heart attack, or death in adults also with known heart disease. and you may lose weight. adults lost up to 14 pounds. ozempic® isn't for people with type 1 diabetes. don't share needles or pens, or reuse needles. don't take ozempic® if you or your family ever had medullary thyroid cancer, or have multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2, or if allergic to it. stop ozempic® and get medical help right awa

tom: jamie dimon, who is not optimistic about a u.s. recession being avoided.e as cpi came in hotter but expected all but cementing a 75 basis point hike from the fed next month. francine: to discuss, we are joined by the chief executive of ninety one, hendrik du toit, were you hiding under your desk during the extreme volatility of the last two weeks? i can't being imagine -- imagine being the head of an asset company when all these things are going around. skylar: you have a proper bear market for fundamental reasons. then you have a situation on if caused by essentially a financial structure that was created by the pension funds. on top of that, you had a government that to say the least has limited credibility. so, if you are operating in u.k. markets you've got more than one issue to deal with, if you operate around the world, there is a general risk off market which makes life difficult for asset managers. even though we have a long-term horizon, people look at the value of their investments. tom: there is a view if central banks keep going until there is

specifically from jamie dimon. joining us now is director of equity research.your take on what we heard from the major banks >> good morning. br banks are a good barometer where we are in the economy barring investment banking looking out to next year and recession, we're just not seeing it in the numbers across all of the banks that reported friday or bank of america whether it is consumer lending and health in terms of credit card or rif or loss exposure or commercial banking where there isn't a distressed industry. those are tea leaves of recession coming it is a tale of two markets. >> the ipo market has dried up, ken. we have seen a rise in m&a kroger putting in an offer for albertsons that should help the banks which banks benefit the most >> so, you know, the voice was weak with the strong investment banking pipeline for the fourth quarter which is one of the biggest quarters for underwriting underwriting with ipos is not expected to pick up the rest of the year m&a will because corporate clients are flushed with cash. if they can't organically grow, the

jamie dimon sounded pessimistic.s not reflected in the amount of reserves they are putting away. bill: the household debt service ratio and mortgage debt ratio are 40, 50 year lows. he is trying to tell you, there is nothing systematic going wrong. as i like to tell people, 80% of what goes on in the economy is fixed at a 20% variable. we are all worried about that 3% of that 20% that is variable. if your spouse love you for percent less next year, which you divorced them? when we worry about selling our stocks, if the economy love just less the 4% next year? guy: it depends on how much your spouse loves you to start with. bill, thank you very much. i will think about that a lot. when you think about what is happening with the consumer and what's happening with mainstreet , do you think we will have to see higher interest rates past on? look at the numbers coming out of jp morgan, it is pretty high right now. how sustainable do you think that is? bill: that is extremely sustainable because we are in the camp of peopl

we see that in the comment air, we herald it from jamie dimon, and i would add that the citigroup ceo, jane frazier, she just said that she expects a mild recession in the second half of next year. neil: who am i to question jamie dimon, of course, but he wasn't exactly prescient on bitcoin and cryptocurrency. obviously, heir seizing on these remarks that proof yet again that a big banking ceo is saying we're on our way to hell in a hand basket, is that it? >> reporter: i think frazier comments are interesting because it's not whether the economy is going to slow, we all know it is, or whether it's going to to go into a recession, but what type of recession. she did use the word mild, so that's still the hope for some folks. i be i think jamie dimon in some of his commentary, what he said in an industry conference yesterday in washington, it's been a little bit more aggressive about what he thinks, yeah. neil: every time i hear head wynns, i just tune out. -- headwinds, i just tune out. [laughter] thank you the, my friend. interestingingly enough, he has sort of reminded people along

jamie dimon says the u.s. into a recession in six to nine months and now you know the news of this monday, october the 10e, 2022 i'm shepard smith. follow us on instagram and twitter where we remain at the news on cnbc listen to the podcast if you feel up to we hope to see you tomorrow night for another edition. we're the experts at replacing your glass... ...and recalibrating your advanced safety system. >> customer: and they recycled my old glass. now that's a company i can trust. >> tech: don't wait. schedule today. ♪ pop rock music ♪ >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ my active psoriatic arthritis can slow me down. now, skyrizi helps me get going by treating my skin and joints. along with significantly clearer skin, skyrizi helps me move with less joint pain, stiffness, swelling, and fatigue. and skyrizi is just 4 doses a year after two starter doses. skyrizi attaches to and reduces a source of excess inflammation that can lead to skin and joint symptoms. with skyrizi, 90% clearer skin and

been pulling money out of missed market at chapel draft. >> look at that move. >> can i just say jamie dimon was a little more nuanced than we're making it. >> the pound is down for the fifth straight day they are adding index-linked gilts. dimon's general point yesterday is it's problems in europe that the u.s. is going to import. that's what is going to lead us to a recession, likely he said in the next six to nine months here's what he said. >> stock markets where do you see the drop for the s&p 500? >> oh, i don't know. it may have a ways to go it really depends on that soft landing, hard landing. since i don't know the answer to that, it's hard to answer that it could be another easy 20% you know, i think like the next 20% will be more painful than the first. rates going up another 100 basis points it will be more painful than the first 100 because people aren't used to it when it's all said and done, he will say i don't know. >> people are negative saying, listen, if they're below 200 and we stay 15 multiple, that is down 20% s&p it doesn't mean it's going to happen but it is one camp

sonali: jp morgan, jamie dimon, said consumer cracks might start next year. david solomon voiced concerns about the consumer. we did not hear that from brian moynihan. for bank of america and j.p. morgan, they were the most beloved of this cycle, but are they the most vulnerable into next year? jon: great reporting as always. thank you for the latest on the goldman sachs story. that is sonali basak. developing news tied to twitter. the team breaking this now. twitter froze the equity awards accounts for employees on monday as that deadline to seal the deal with elon musk approaches. ed ludlow breaking that news. walk us through the significance of this. ed: these are the accounts twitter employees check based on stock compensation. the check for status and a notice was placed on those accounts monday. essentially it told them they had been frozen. the ability to trade. there was a quiet period in place anyway, but the company is anticipating this deal. twitter shares pushing higher. it is a sign to the market twitter is proceeding as expected to work to close

economy believing and the consumer until jamie dimon did a u-turn.k us through what we can expect to hear from him today. >> it is interesting, there are a few things going on, here in washington is the iff meetings, there is the inf meetings and allow the banks have emerging markets and sovereign clients in d.c.. you hear him talk about the u.s. economy, a bigger worry about the bigger draw down in the u.s. stock market, 20%, you may hear him speak about the issues and the rest of the world. how the strong dollar impacts the countries, how those plea back into the united states, if there is any broad -- bleed back into the night states and if there is any broader systemic risks. they talk about how the government balance sheets could be the canary in the coal mound -- mine. as a of debt goes up what does that mean here in the united states? those be the kind of questions that will be top of mind as jamie dimon addresses them today. >> 32nd scum was the bank to watch? -- 30 seconds, what is the bank to watch? >> jp morgan. we rarely see morgan stanle

david, i think the president kind of cribbed -- i know he didn't watch jamie dimon, but jamie dimon wisheshat the president said. >> he does you don't think jamie was happy with what he said? he basically said, it could go down 20% i don't know >> that's the way that the president -- well, the president didn't say, 20%. but i'm saying the president left the opportunity that it could be either one. i thought it was very eloquent >> just come back and talk about the fact that there are a lot more jobs than people are looking for still. >> that doesn't change from 11 million to 10 million, but i found it encouraging yesterday, you blasted me as a card-carrying republican or something. i say that this was measured could happen there are a lot of jobs, as you said, it will be -- oh aviation, you're focused on, is up 4%. i found that the president was measured, and was probably accurate in the world that we're in >> opening bell, guys, as you're talking, the big board today, pest control company renttokill, celeb celebrating its acquisition to terminex as we do open lower, s&p is down 13 of the

>> well, god bless jamie dimon for speaking truth to power here.f the matter is that we're going to need oil and gas for decades and decades into the future. we also know that there are going to be more renewables that come into the marketplace. but energy demand is only growing in the united states and throughout the world. and that means that we're going to continue to need oil and gas. and i think the truth of the matter is, is that we need oil and gas from the united states, because if we're not getting it from the united states, we're going to be getting it from regimes that are hostile to american interests. so what the administration should be focused on is policies that advance american energy leadership and lower consumer costs. and instead of demonizing this industry at every turn, which is what this president seems to be doing, they should be focused on how we get more production going right now. the policies that they've pursued are only undermining the industry right now. maria: well, actually at the same time, mike, you've got a presi

richard, what else did jamie dimon tell you? the recession because of things like russia/ukraine worrying him. he's worried about the inability in political circumstances to reach compromise, to come to decisions, to move things forward. so i think what we hear from all the people on the panel is, yes, there's going to be a recession and we know the reasons why and how difficult it might or might not be in different parts of the world. but the existential crisis of climate change, the possibility of nuclear exchange with russia/ukraine, the agreement between the u.s. and china, which is sort of roiled supply chains, even the saudi/u.s. tensions to some extent, those are the things which have serious long-term implications that they're worried about. >> you also had an important conversation with the ceo of goldman sachs, david solomon. what did he have to say about a possible recession and what it really will mean for the economy? >> david solomon was clear that he does not think there will be a recession. they all think it will

he kept saying that is what i want you to do, so i called jamie dimon and i said geithner are is all over me. he said, i don't want the firm. he said, if you force me to do it, i wouldn't pay you two dollars a share. so that made it easy on me. i was not going to listen. and, as a result, we called our board in, and we are thinking we are going to go out of business. david: at one point, you are on a phone call with ben bernanke the chair of the fed, the secretary of treasury, and tim geithner, head of the new york fed, and they said you should file for bankruptcy. you slam the phone down on them. was that easy to do? john: for me, it was easy to do. i mean, thank god i left out some four-letter words. i said, i will take the firm down first. and i hung up on them. i cannot tell you why i did it because in my gut, it was the wrong thing to do. david: so now, after your retirement, you decided to write a book. it is a very good book i have read called "up close and all in." about your life story. how hard is it to sit down and write about your life and go through the good and bad thin

maria: business taking notice jamie dimon ceo jpmorgan saying bidened get emergency policy completelyms of bullying nature to climate change agenda or face consequences. >> absolutely can't convince me this is not calculated the democratic party want a socialist nation i feel they are trying to bankrupt the country to reestablish us as socialist country push greene new detail the inflation reduction act was ridiculous unnecessary poured fuel on fire not what we need when i look at this people telling me i am having trouble applying gas groceries paying rent. that is us what what leads me to believe we are going to have even bigger turnout even bigger majority in the house, this year are with republicans, than i even imagined before. maria: they are trying to distract, and come up with other things to talk about, todd , like abortion as if abortion number one issue on american families minds. >> my money guys tell me, me are excited for republican win in congress because they say if that happens a lot of these losses are going to be -- could tun into wins. maria: cheryl casone to have

jamie dimon says the u.s.kely tip into a recession in six to nine months and now you know the news of this monday, october the >>> it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. no tuesday turn around on tap. stocks kicking off the trading week in the red with the nasdaq at a two-year low. >>> dimon's dire outlook ceo sitting down with cnbc saying more steep pull backs may be ahead for the market. we've got his full comments coming up. >>> breaking news. the bank of england intervening in the bon

jamie dimon making some comments, and a lot of people listen to jamie when he speaks. right?yeah. >> a couple things to put in context. he's talking about potentially a couple thins, the recession which he says could be six to nine months away. he talks about the stock market, and you see that falling, he talked about it potentially falling another 20%, which of course would feel a lot worse than the 20% we've already fallen thus far. >> yeah. >> and so i think a lot of folks are saying what does this mean? jamie has tried to be -- i would say he's generally risk averse, has been a better sort of risk manager than most on wall street. so the question is how much to take away from that. we talked to ray last week and others and they're talking about the downside. nobody is talked about the upside. you could say if the conventional wisdom is all downside, maybe there is upside, but it's hard to see how this gets materially better anytime soon. >> reaching consensus with the guys where this is headed. >> yeah. >> jamie also talked yesterday about oil and what the united states s

stuart: both jeff bezos and jamie dimon have warned that a recession is coming.white house, what does the white house say? >> reporter: yeah. president's saying nothing to see her, move along, basically. but you can run down the list of people who last year were saying we're not going to see a recession, and now they're changing their tune. you talked about the list of votes, jeff bezos, elon musk, jamie dimon as well as the head of goldman sachs saying we see some troubled times ahead. so i asked this question about this white house bubble. we've heard you say that the president believes there's not going to be a recession, could -- might not happen. but a growing number of business folks who are outside this building, jeff bezos yesterday joining jamie dimon, goldman sachs' ceo yesterday, why are they wrong thensome. >> so, look, the president has said this and i'm going to say this here as well. what he wants the american people to know is because of of the resilience of the economy and because of our economic plan, we are in a better place to deal with these

ceos warn about recession, elon musk, sundar pichai, jamie dimon says batten down the hatches carlos gimenez, rick crawford, ashley hinson. bill stanton, real estate pro erin sikes, jon levine and job strategist ford o'connell. there is outrage over the footage. warning it is disturbing. teenagers attacked attack womans in d.c. time to protect victims. where is the "me too" movement, the "squad" against a crime against another woman? americans fighting back against rising violence. james clyburn contradicts the white house, government spending ignite inflation and the white house contradicts biden on claims of gas price gouging at gas stations. we got that. democrats tack talk up a transition to green energy but not that it mean higher energy costs for you. white house pressures a texas border mayor not to declare a emergency before the midterms. the media tries to downplay fbi whistles blowers in a top senate report on national security risks in the biden family play to play deals selling access to the government overseas. i'm elizabeth macdonald. "the evening edit" starts right now

like i mean, it's funny, jamie dimon i think a week ago talked in europe about like the market could be down 20%. well, yeah, it could be. it could be off 20%. sodo we think the odds of it being down 20% from a year now or up from 20% are the same? no we think there's a two to one odds in favor of the market being sufficiently higher, above the 4,000 level on the s&p next year relative to it being down below 3200 >> that's something to look forward to that's good. i feel better now. >> christmas comes early. >> doug, i like this i mean, let's talk -- you mentioned something that was sort of interesting to me, while citi is well priced, you don't like its franchises as well as you like the franchises or i think that was -- maybe my word, not yours. >> yeah. >> what is it that makes them less desirable than jp >> citi is more exposed internationally. probably -- and we're still not sold on necessarily a huge european recovery, huge south american recovery. we've seen poor performance out of latin american countries. i also think, again, jpmorgan has a better positioning in the capital

a hard landing is the kind of thing that jamie dimon is potentially talking about right, joe, for risk assets don't tell me we're in a hard landing for risk now and then we're going to go down when we're in what's that called >> that's not a hard landing that's a crash and that's a crash that doesn't recover for five years because you go down another 20%, scott, you're talking about the 1970s where the market went down 48% and it took nine years to recover. you're talking about the 2000 or 2007 scenarios where the market goes down 50% and it takes five years to recover so i do believe this is a hard landing and the reason i'm saying it's a hard landing because i'm looking beyond the s&p. the s&p is benefitting from having apple and microsoft and alphabet who have had resiliency >> microsoft at a new 52-week low today. >> more recently you're seeing under-performance, scott but you're not going to acknowledge there's a hard landing in the entirety of the 60-40 portfolio. this is the worst return we've seen in multiple decades >> i hear you on that, but, steph, the scenario of a jamie di

>> you are saying the banks respond positively in the face of a lot of uncertainty as jamie dimon putsignificant headwinds. the reality is they are drying out those estimates by the numbers. as those estimates start to bake and for wall street, it's easier to get past them. you are asking about the look forward through european banks. because of the choppy trading performance, if you look at the estimates that are compiled by bloomberg, you're expected to see some significant declines that the european banks are facing more regional pressures. credit suisse is the biggest to watch. a place that is interesting to look for is deutsche bank. given their heavy focus on fixed income, it is been holding up the rest of the pie as you are seeing a lot of other businesses falter. a key deutsche bank question is what is deutsche bank looking like without the fixed income business? barclays will also be looking out. >> are these banks comfortable with each other? as we go into the slowdown, they are touting the liquidity they have. is it just to confirm this is a system that is still functioning?

jamie dimon and nobel prize winner ben bernanke join the cause of caution. parliament resumes since the many budget wreaked havoc on markets. the boe sets up its bond market intervention this morning. joe biden pledges more military support for ukraine and vladimir putin threatens additional attacks. francine: this is the picture of the futures. a lot of focus not only on the fed, but we look at gilts specifically. just can't get out in front. tax futures and ftse futures. tom: that remarkable selloff in gilts yesterday. up between 20 and 30 basis points across the yield. broadening their scope of intervention to start adding gilts with the index link as well. in terms of the language, warning about firesale conditions about the impact on the financial markets. they are broadening that scope. we will check in on gilts in the next few seconds. futures in the u.s. pointing toward further red across the equity space. the cac 40 down. the ftse 100 off by 0.5%. the jobs data, it has to position around a tighter labor market. that is the lowest level of unemployme