jay powell should consider all the factors when making decisions.tics that plays into all of this. and forth overlie gasparino steve moore, a friend of yours,. >> yeah he is, whether or not he gets nominated to the federal reserve board, whether or not he gets confirmed, charlie's reporting that he will go to bat for him because he want the him as a counterweight to jay powell. what do you make of that? >> i don't think that is true. i think steve moore is fin fine person for federal reserve board. he has qualifications. knows his economics. a great writer on economics, has been great for years and years. knows the field well. he would be a wonderful member. whether he is opposing jay powell on one matter and supporting him on another, steve moore will be a wonderfully positive influence on the federal reserve board and i couldn't be happer than i am with steve. connell: next hour, "bulls & bears." >> i did. connell: you can speak to himself on all these issues. art, i want to get your opinion on what if the president closes the border between unite

he was seen speaking with jay powell later. he is worried about central bank independence and the most important jurisdiction in the world. in other words, the federal reserve, the leading central bank, cannot be pushed in this way. it was a big topic on the sideline of the meetings. the central bank chiefs of south africa and switzerland both said, we have policy mandates. you have to have prices to nobility and maximum sustainable growth. that's how you keep them accountable. if you look at what the federal reserve did in december when trump was pushing as hard as he could to get them not to hike rates, they hike the key rate. i think the fed tried to improve its independence and then moved in january when it saw evidence of a weaker global economy, a stock market that had gone down, it could tighten financial conditions. it remains a debate about whether jay powell has vowed to donald trump at all. that's why he continues to push so hard. watch we will continue to for that, kathleen hays and roz with the wrap us up of a pret

according to the notes, the president did make some remarks, we believe about jay powell, though as the tape played out, it didn't necessarily show them so we are trying to figure out exactly what he may or may not have said. bottom line, you see the president right now in san antonio, texas. he will spend the day there for those fund-raisers, and for the signing of an executive order that should take place in about the next hour or so. liz? liz: all right. i'm getting it, blake. i just got the readout. apparently the president did address very briefly his choice for federal reserve. he was saying many presidents haven't done a lot of things they should and then he blurted out maybe we should have a different federal reserve chairman who didn't raise interest rates. reporter: yeah. liz: i believe when that hit the tape, the dow once again turned higher. we are up about ten points. go ahead. reporter: speaking of the fed, i asked president trump earlier today when he left the white house about herman cain and the criticism that is coming from republicans in the senate. those republican s

we don't know exactly word for word what he said to jay powell during the march 8th phone call. we don't know how many phone calls there have been between president trump and jay powell to really understand what's happening, you need to know whether the president is issuing explicit orders and making threats. the problem is the white house doesn't have a lot to stand on here in terms of forcing the fed to do much of anything jay powell suggested he doesn't believe he can be fired if the white house wanted to try that, they would embroil themselves in a probably months long legal battle with an uncertain conclusion so politically, they can't really force them to do anything and they're sort of jawboning the air and hoping some of it lands at the fed >> before you go, jpmorgan appointed this out a while back, that it's pretty clear that the president can't fire the fed chair, but he could -- it's more ambiguous about whether he could name a different member of the board to be a fed chair. if, for example, steve moore were a board member, could he plausibly become the chair >> i do

legitimacy of everybody and everything around him. >> do know why the president is obsessed with jay powell? this is "wall street journal" reporting. according to a person who directly heard the president blast the fed chairman and the president telling powell, i guess i'm stuck with you. i ask this in jest, because here was a "bloom beberg" report fro 2018. every time the fed raises rates, trump's payments on some $340 million in loans go up. since his january 2017 inauguration, the fed's steady rate hikes may have added a cumulative 5$5.1 million a year to his debt. >> presidents, frankly, the traditional posture of presidents has been to want looser money from federal reserve. >> sure. >> over the last 30 years, we've developed more of a norm where we say presidents shouldn't be publicly trashing the federal reserve because it makes it harder for the fed to actually do what it needs to do to keep the economy steady. this president, of course, doesn't care about that kind of norms. you do wonder if he's sort of -- would they have raised interest rates in december if he hadn't made it into

>> to quote the fed chair jay powell, the u.s. economy is in a good place. to discern the economic indicators around the turn of the year. remember, the first quarter always has residual seasonality. jay powell work hard to tighten .inancial conditions slowly slower being good. whenu are growing at 3% the unemployment rate is already below your natural rate, you have to slow to sustain expansion. things got in the way. the government shutdown, noisy data, a more sharp slowing in china. but that's mostly in the rearview mirror. joe: the relationship between the on employment rate and the estimate, the natural rate of on climate and inflation. over the last few years, economists particularly at the federal reserve really have miss estimated when inflation would pick up. in your own words, i'm curious how strong you feel that link is, and whether you have done any fresh thinking about what we know about these things? vincent: two things to begin with. an unidentified flying object, not a fixed point in nature. number two, it has fallen over time associated with

so i think jay powell is in a very tricky position, and it seems that whenever president trump is concerned happening in the stock market, he likes to point the finger and blame someone. and jerome powell has been his target for pretty much every disappointment. nejra: i want to ask you about blackrock, i know that you are well-positioned to talk about this. we heard about the massive overhaul in the firm's leadership yesterday, shifting to regional-specific readers. what does the ships tell you about what is happening in the moment?ndustry at the chris: that tells me two things. first about blackrock is a really truly global organization that has strengths not only in the united states but here in , and i thinkia they are trained to get some better balance and make sure that they have key people in those regions. it also reflects the changing nature of revenues in an asset management business. we have this continued shift from active management over the past two years to a balance passive.ctive and the etf business from blackrock has been a key driver of where they have been going. so i th

he says the stock market would be much higher it was not for jay powell's policies. he isare mauve he says increasingly worried about the fed's independence. steve mnuchin says the u.s. and china are ever closer to a deal. he also warns about currency manipulation in japan. shery: let's get you started with a quick check of the markets close. investors were broadly optimistic over the global economic outlook after some positive data out of china. we saw the s&p 500 gain ground for a straight -- third straight week. financials leading the gains with some solid earnings out of jp morgan. the health care sector it was the only sector that was in the red with insurers falling for a second consecutive session as we had congress debating drug prices. u.s. futures holding steady at the moment. let's see how we are setting up for asia. sophie: asian futures posing modest gains. adding a third of a percent this monday. at the start of a week which marks the start of u.s. japan trade talks. economic data will be closely watched for signs of stabilization. today we look at numb

. >> i think we are fine i want the cover for jay powel to continue to go with trump how is that?> that'll be quite -- hey, those can be fun >> yes, they could if you are going to have god father pizzas, too >> steven moore, do you think he'll listen to me he plays an economist on tv, right? >> yes, i believe he does. >> it is like dr. marcus weld. we'll hear from kudlow we'll see, this number shows to be a 15 bases point cut now. >> that was the old vice strategy i found that when you have a severe recession, that's a good thing to do. when you have one of the greatest jobs numbers, it seems ill advised calling at the bases point. it was the greatest year in new york sports ever >> that's what you think if you are in new york. the knicks the jets and the mets. you have to move on. >> knicks, jets and mets >> this time it was just me. i don't need to hear about how good the mets are. they came to play. >> and the conspiracy theater is david is mr. mets. because they rarely been seen together >> i took that thing -- i was down there giving him this >> you were. >> shares at tesla,

they're not calling up jay powell saying you better cut interest rates or how to replace jay powell they've we did learn in "the wall street journal" yesterday that the president called jay powell on march 8th, which was the day of a disappointing jobs number we don't know the entire contents of that conversation. snippets were reported in the journal yesterday. we don't know what the president has said to jay powell but you're right the white house's argument here is, look, we were saying that interest rates needed to be cut and they should not raise back in december. we were saying they shouldn't raise rates. and it was inappropriate to go forward with their plan of unwinding the balance sheet as aggressively as they wanted to do and the fed ultmetly came around to that view from the white house's perspective, they were right and it took the fed awhile to catch up to them and they feel there's nothing inappropriate about that >> eamon, thank you. >> you bet >>> let's bring in ron kirk, former trade representative to discuss the trade developments thanks for joining us. >> thrilled to be w

liz: senator liz warren is not the only one attacking jay powell.rump has over the past several months, making it quite clear he's unhappy with his own decision to put jay powell in place because of the somewhat aggressive rate hike path he had been on. now it's pretty clear the fed has stopped. in fact, i was just reading about this. it looks like the market believes there may even be a rate cut by the end of this year. where do you guys stand at raymond james on that? >> well, they are harlalways hao tell. if you look at the market, it's already priced in a rate cut or two. if you look at the economy, we are at records in the market, we are still seeing growth, we are seeing low unemployment. if that causes inflation to go up, you could even see it rise over time. i do think the fed's job is, you know, they have been managing what is probably the longest bull run now, almost ten years, that their job is to watch and accommodate and figure out what they need to do and i think that's what they're doing. they have taken a pause. the economy's continu

pay attention to what jay powell says he says pretty much what was reflected in the first couple sentences of those minutes >> and steve brasso, if i could go to you quickly. is the fact that the ten-year yield is drifting quickly, is there any kind of head wind for the stock market or is it just a blip >> yeah. i mean, i think the yield curve is -- that's the issue right there. the yield curve is spread basically of anywhere between ten basis points to 20 where smack in the middle of that, i believe the fed, these fed minutes did what the market wanted it to do. there was basically a lack of volatility or volume during the course of the day. the fed did just enough in back ward-looking statements to keep the market sort of steady. now we look forward to earnings and we'll see what that lies in. guidance, we all know the world is slowing we all know we're slowing. let's see what earnings look like that's next natural progression for the markets to focus on. >> mr. liesman >> i was going to point out what rick said. when you read the minutes, the fed is very aware of what markets have been

they said in january when jay powell said what would it take to get back on the hiking path, he saidflation. a good thing, and they are meeting. let's look at another chart, taking a look at the pce, the deflator, the number they are watching. it is a quarterly number. down to 1.4%,e is another 1.3%. this is a move in the wrong direction. it is may be temporary, but what kind of policy when you see inflation coming down? the monthly leaders -- numbers on this, the court year-over-year will be up, and they will be weaker, 1.7% and 1.6%. the president of the chicago fed gave a speech and said if we saw inflation following, that could set the scenario for a rate cut. writing over the weekend, the bar for the fed to move on rates is a growth. he agrees if inflation keeps falling, the fed could be heading for a rate cut. interesting for the federal reserve at this meeting. one more reason it will be watched not for a rate move but for what the policy statement says and for what jay powell says at the press conference after the meeting. sophie: kathleen hays, thank you. pushes president tr

the president has less flattering words when it comes to jay powell -- he says the u.s. economy is doing well despite the fed's destructive actions. shery ahn: boeing says it must eliminate risk as ethiopia backs its pilot. >> let's get you started with a quick check on how markets closed. investors more bullish on equities. the s&p 500 gained ground for six consecutive sessions, the longest winning streak since february of last year. we had more optimism over a potential trade deal between the u.s. and china, not to mention some positive economic data. we had jobless claims unexpectedly falling to a 49-year low which sets up well for the jobs report coming out tomorrow and friday. the nasdaq was weighed down by tesla, of course. they plunged after a record decline first quarter in deliveries. how are we setting up in asia? haidi: we looking at a little ,it of a holiday thin session causing hong kong and mainland china markets to be closed today, but we are getting a little bit of a decline coming through new zealand where trading is under way for this final trading sess

connell: the president pointed out he's kind of stuck with jay powell. for some reason, if it was a quote, it was in the paper the president apparently said to jay powell you know what, i guess i'm stuck with you. the guy he's stuck with is going to cut rates is your point. >> yeah. i think beginning of the year, no one was talking about a cut. everyone was just talking about the fact that we could see no further rate rises but you know, just a few months later, we are now talking about potential for a cut and that just shows how far it's come so quickly. connell: all right. what do we do investment-wise in this environment? you talked about how things have changed. how do you change your approach? stocks have still done relatively well. today, the services number didn't kill us. the market is pretty much flat. >> one of the things to look for is companies that can handle higher wages, aren't so heavy on what they are paying and also oil prices. have good margins. ones to avoid are the communications services, consumer discretionary, health care, all ver

jay powell was more of an investment banker. do we have anyone who ran a business?ichael: nobody who fits that category, and it has been a while since they have had anyone like that. jay powell himself is not an economist. you mentioned the dallas fed president, not an economist. they have business training and business backgrounds but not -- not run a payroll. david: very interesting breaking news. still ahead, tesla is in the crosshairs today with the stock down on disappointing news on deliveries and elon musk before a federal judge today on contempt charges. that is coming up today. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: breaking news out of the white house. president trump is speaking on a number of subjects. he said he might impose tariffs on cars from mexico if they do not take care of the border situation. that runs afoul of the usmca he's kind get ratified. at the same time he says of the drug flow does not stop, mexico faces car tariffs. he says mexico was capturing and sending back migrants. he is talking about the china deal and says it would be great for u.s. farm

the doghouse for a while and get out or in the doghouse for a while and then get fired where is jay powell in the doghouse this official told me that powell was fine now. the president was over his bit of pique, because he decided not to increase rates and then hold off on quantitative tightening. >> what happened >> reporting, eamon. [ talking over each other >> the senior administration officials say, is powell still fine how serious is that demand and how intense is he going to push it >> let's say the president is right. that the fed ought to cut rates and quantitative easing. why even have a fed? if policy can and should be dictated from the white house, what's to stop us? no, no, that's not what he's saying i agree. >> so then -- >> follow it through that the president and the executive branch can and should publicly diskoriate the federal reserve and muscle them into public policy >> for a second, why is the fed being muscled? right? if you believe the president can't fire the fed chair, most people believe, why would they listen to him? if they're being jawboned into it, they could

david: does president trump called jay powell and say thank you?what -- say, or does larry kudlow you still want a rate cut? the greater the lineup. this is bloomberg. ♪ . jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro and the countdown to the open starts right now. relieved, some concern about a week february and the s&p 500 on the longest winning streak of the year, the enthusiasm continuing to build as the chinese president pushes for a rapid conclusion of trade talks. 30 minutes away from the opening bell. good morning. we may have seven days of gains, futures up. the dollar a little softer. 52 on a u.s. 10 2 year. joining us from the labor department is michael mckee. break it down for us. relax, itnvestors can is a bond br

jay powell has not shown size of capitulating but it is a concern. david: i'm wondering what he 4000-5000 higher, i'm guessing he met the dow jones. [laughter] david: that you got the joke. mnuchin secretary steve signaled that the imf upgrade of china and the growth rate is relying heavily on the deal getting done. are those two things connected? first, let's start with what steve mnuchin said. in some people's minds, they are, at don't think it surprising. he's saying right now what they are talking about is enforcement mechanisms on aspects of the deal. both sides have to agree to something and both sides have to live up to it, and if they don't, mnuchin is saying is there will be repercussions. he also said they are working both countries on establishing in each country and enforcement officer to monitor compliance. i think this is smart, because it's not like china is having to give in to something the u.s. is not getting into, which makes it more palatable. also coming said he thinks they are more close to the final round of talks on these issu

i'm going to start with fed news president trump has told fed chairman jay powell he is stuck with him the "wall street journal" reports the president made those comments to powell in a recent phone call president trump has repeatedly blasted powell and the fed for raising rates and blame the central bank for hurting the economy and the stock market >>> the fomer nissan chairman is facing financial misconduct charges in japan he was released from jail last month after being arrested in november ghosn tweeting today i'm getting ready to tell the truth about what's happening now to a developing story. investigators are still on the scene of an explosion and a fire that broke out yesterday in a texas chemical plant here's video of the scene right here one worker was killed and two others seriously hurt. this plan is located about 30 minutes northeast of houston authorities say a tank filled with a flammable gas and a nearby storage building both caught fire when a transfer line ig need. it's the second blaze at a chemical plant in this area in recent weeks brian, back to you >> we had ano

i know jay powell well i think he and the committee are just going to do what is the level best thing to do and they'll not heed the president of the united states he'll do what's right for the real economy and i think that's their mandate. i don't think they'll deviate from it no matter what the president says >> stand by. we'll take a quick break a couple minutes we'll come back and continue our conversation mr. fisher is going to answer the question of whether the fed made a policy mistake in december when it raised rates in the face of what appeared to be a slowing economy. he'll answer that question, and we'll discuss much more. here's what else is coming up. >> before the break, our data partners at kensho on what happens after ge loses 5%-plus in a day it's happened 12 times since 2017 when it does, a week later, the fall continues with the stock down on average 3.15%. for more go to cnbc.com/kensho "the halftime rertpo" with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes dear tech, you've been making headlines. smart tech is everywhere. but is that enough? i need tech tha

the spotlight shifting to jay powell. another news conference following another fomc rate decision.hat is coming up next. this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg "real yield." coming up over the next week, a busy one. more tech earnings wrapping up with google on monday. apple results on tuesday. trade representative bob lighthizer and steven mnuchin traveling to beijing to resume talks on wednesday. a fed decision and news conference with chairman powell coming up. rates likely to remain on hold for the bank of england on thursday. jobs numbers on friday. still with us is matthew hornbeck, greg staples, and iain stealey. what are you looking for next week from chairman powell? iain: what will be interesting is his taken reading on inflation. that is the ship we have seen over the past few months. that is the fed's mandate now. they know the growth side is ok. to me, what is the lower bound, what will be low enough to knock them into cutting rates at this stage? matthew: the idea of an insurance rate cut is definitely something people are go

indicator i followed had turned down the thing is we are really heading to a recession fed chief jay powell, who's learned his lesson, will simply cut rates to juice the economy bye, bye, inverted yield curve will those who told you to sell me, inverted yield curve, tell you to buy on its repeal i don't think so the fifth argument for why we are at a top -- earnings season! lots of people seem concerned that the results will be weaker than expected. as i pointed out last night, when companies like 3m and fedex have disappointed, their stocks go down for a bit and then, boom they give us a decisive rally. so i'm not worried about weak earnings if the stocks are bad that said, i think today is very healthy because it's good for stocks to go down heading into earnings season. that way -- well, let's say they have plenty of room to rally if they beat the numbers. today removed a lot of the froth that i don't like. one more pullback like this before the big banks start reporting on friday and i think we're going to be in very good shape. sixth top call, oil. the presumption is when oil goes high

erik: you could make the case that in october, jay powell may have screwed up a little.the chairman is doing a very good job, a difficult job. as you translate forward, it doesn't look like there will be a lot of policy activity through the rest of the year and to 2020. one economist is predicting one increase late in the year 2020. he is cautious on the fact that you could see in any way, shape, or form, a cut. it doesn't really see that but right now, the economy is chugging along pretty well and policy will be stable. erik: one of the places you see the impact of stable policy is the credit market. david: the credit markets are pretty constructive. erik: money is pretty easy. david: money is pretty easy, but when you look at the big banks, the participation in the big sale credit markets, there i don't think there has been real movement in credit standards. i think what you are alluding to a little bit is when you get out of the regulated institutions and and some of the shadow is a lotarkets, there of capital moving that direction, there is less transparency around t

jay powell will say all day and all night and is act on the data and not being influenced by the fedt the idea is now in the market, the fed is following the president's lead, is that the case and how does that complicate the fed navigating what to do next? >> well, it puts him in a box, essentially so many comments coming from the administration they have to sort of respond to even if it's denying it. the fed reports to congress, the president cannot from my understanding remove chairman powell. so that is not an option and i think the chairman's job now is to continue to share his thoughts with the market and the market has been able to observe it pretty well and be very forthcoming and clear in what they see and what they are trying to do. inflation is still in check, so i think the fed is doing a decent job communicating to the market and we have -- dagen: if you have a larry kudlow -- maria: it's not that you're putting new money to work in stocks here? >> i would, wonderful return over 25% and we think it's going to continue turning that way. maria: nice, alfred, coming up not

don't listen, jay powell darn good. >> jim, we'll see you tonight. >> this was fun.are in business >> been a good friday. "mad money" 6:00 p.m when we come back, more of david's interview with bob iger as disney is up 10% plus we'll check in with former fed chair greenspan. dow is up 263. ♪ (vo) i know what you're thinking. electric, it's not for you. and, you're probably right. electric just doesn't have enough range. it will never survive the winter. charging stations? good luck finding one of those. so, maybe an electric car isn't for you after all. or, is it? ♪ the ai i need? it's gotta scale across my business. starting here, in procurement, helping us find the right suppliers. then here in logistic, to avoid disruptions! here in sales. even here! i'm talking about ai we can build to work... here, predicting trends. and here, wherever our data lives! and here, working with all our other ai! i think we're done here. expect more from ai. ibm watson. (man over radio) three, two, one... in 1969, engineers put the first man on the moon. everyone looked up at the sky,

could make the case in october, jay powell might have screwed up a little.id: i think the chairman is doing a very good job, a difficult job. as you translate forward, it doesn't look like there will be a lot of policy activity through the rest of the year and to 2020. economists are predicting one increase late in the year 2020. he is cautious on the fact that you could see a cut. it doesn't really see that but right now, the economy is chugging along pretty well and policy i will be stable. stableicc the impact of policy is the credit market. david: the credit markets are pretty constructive. but whenpretty easy, thelook at the big banks, participation in the big sale credit markets, there i don't think there has been real movement in credit standards. what you are alluding to a little bit is when you get out of the regulated institutions and into the shadow banking markets, there is less transparency around that activity where it is harder to see but that is an area to watch. i don't think it is necessarily at thetomach -- systemic moment but it is an to

what do they by jay powell? it was very strong and good last year.s is reflecting this development. it is with this development in our policy meeting. haslinda: the dovish fed has limited the apples from emerging markets, including indonesia. do you think there will be other pressures in japan or europe? market hasal finance an effect in the u.s.. japan andking in china and other emerging markets. they are enticing the flow into these markets. haslinda: is it time to have a different priority? you talk about how financial stability was important. -- y: this is becoming it is natural. that because of the domestic economy but because of action ability. this is why we have more room. we can support this. question, weirst are becoming more preemptive, forward-looking and relaxing our liquidity. our economics will be higher. it will be because of things done by the government. this was taking place in the city of shanghai. we are moving to indiana with the reserve bank delivering a back-to-back interest rate. it has all the speculation of policy easing. t

what does it mean for jay powell?y powell and the fed is the terminal point for the fed hiking call will be lower than it has been in previous cycles. i think the market got ahead of itself in starting to price in rate cuts by the fed, but it is clear that this secular decline in real yields is one that does mean that the endpoint for the fed will be on a lower level than it was in previous cycles. tom: the terminal value will be lower. the litmus paper is the dollar in the fx system. it is foreign-exchange adapting to the permanence of a low real yield? marc: it is adjusting to this view, but there is still a wide spread. the spread between the american and the european two year is the widest it has been. we are in a low inflation environment. i just wonder if the cover of businessweek, peter coyle, who is one of the best journalists, always had his finger on the psychology, his cover story is "is inflation dead?" i do not think so. intellectual -- inflation and volatility being dead for structural reasons will come

the spotlight shifting to fed chairman jay powell.er news conference following an fomc rate decision. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg "real yield." it is time now for the final spread. coming up over the next week, a busy one. we will get more tech earnings, wrapping up with google on monday. apple results on tuesday. trade representative bob lighthizer and secretary steven mnuchin traveling to beijing to resume talks on wednesday. a fed decision and news conference with chairman powell coming up. and rates are likely to remain on hold for the bank of england on thursday. a busy week for u.s. data concluding with jobs numbers on friday. still with us at the roundtable is matthew hornbach, greg staples, and iain stealey. let's look ahead to next week. what are you looking for from chairman powell? iain: what will be interesting is his take and reading on inflation. because i think that is the shift we have seen over the past few months. it is all about inflatio

having said that, with regard to jay powell, who is a friend, he's a fine person, he will turn into a good fed chairman. speaking personally, he has my confidence. i notice from the various i notice from the various reports and so forth that they've changed their view. i don't think rates will rise in the foreseeable future, maybe never again in my lifetime. whether they'll fall, i wouldn't find them falling. i'm not storming the ramparts. again, the fed is independent. any of problem with that. i'm ns between the fed world of you -- view is not as portrayed. you say that herman cain cannot get the votes to serve on the fed board. we are having discussions. he is in the venting --vetting process. >> you plan on moving forward with that? we have to start internally at the white house. that process is going on. how that turns out. i don't want to prejudge it one way or the other. consultationsd with senate baking committee -- banking committee. i don't want to prejudge it. is full of allegations, sometimes they are true and sometimes they are untrue, as we have seen. i want to give him

our lead economist -- >> you can make the case that back in october, jay powell may have screwed up atle bit. >> i think he has done a good job, a difficult job. as you move forward, policy activity as we move into 2020. economists predicting one increase late in the year in 2020. onis, i think, very cautious the fact that we could see a cuts. i think right now, economy is chugging along pretty well, it will be relatively stable. >> one of the places you see an impact of stable policy is the credit market. >> the credit market is pretty constructive. money is pretty easy. but when you look at the big banks and their participation with the credit markets, i don't think there has been a real movement in credit standards. i think what you were alluding to a little bit is when you get out of the regulated institutions and into some of the shadow banking markets, transparency around that activity. i would say that is an area to watch. i don't think it is necessarily systemic at the moment but i think it is an area to watch. i think when you think about that space, some of the capital in th

draghi has the same problem that jay powell has, that inflation is not rising right now. so what do they do?they have a lot of risks facing them right now. not the least donald trump and another risk of a trade war. brexit, we don't know what will happen with that. and just a general slowing in the economy there. he's got to figure out a way to stimulate the economy without the traditional methods of qe. he's got a tough balancing act today. alix: it feels like he has an extra tough job in that he also has banks that are hamstrung, so they don't want to lend. peggy: that's a great point. we seen european banks continue to be and battered by a myriad of issues, including money laundering. the question is whether he will come out and try to deal with that as well. as mike said, he's facing a lot issues,se -- a lot of including expectation that trump is pivoting towards europe in terms of tariffs. michael: they have negative rates. could he go more negative? i brought a chart that shows no. they are hurting back profitability, and this is a big issue -- hurting bank profitab

what we have seen is jay powell ame in to his tenure as significant hot and he scared the market.t we have seen more recently is a move to chicken. just really low -- rolling over towards the market. it will continue to play in to the volatility that we are seeing. where do you see investors putting their money right now? a bit of a continuation of that theme. the one dry spot in the global economy remains u.s. consumer. accessre lots of ways to the balance sheet, housing being one of them. it has worked out ok so far. we are going to continue to see that play have. let's get you a quick check of the latest business headlines this hour. toren buffett is advising look beyond wall street for a new ceo to avoid attracting criticism in washington. he is the largest shareholder and said it would not be smart to appoint someone from the business community in new york. tim sloan retired after a range of scandals. carlos ghosn is said to lose the latest of his titles in the next few hours. remove him from the board. extraordinary shareholders to takeis supposed carlos ghosn off the board.

anything that jay powell and company can say not to change the narrative will be a key question. a look at first word news with su keenan. with theart in spain socialist party. have won the election. pedro sanchez will have to form a broad alliance. socialists claimed seats in congress. was47-year-old sanchez forced to call a snap election after he failed to pass his budget. showing is tightening the government narrowing the gap against opposition. the labour party holds the lead. weekend, an extra $2.8 million childcare. to curb thedged refugee intake. move in response to the easter sunday bombings that killed 200 52 people. the government has blamed the killings on an islamic group that had foreign help. the prime minister has admitted the attacks could have been prevented if agencies had acted on known intelligence. the latest on boeing's problems say they737 max 8 jet will get a software update as trouble remains grounded. the angle of attack disagree alert will be standard on new planes and retrofitted to those already flying. it wasst airlines says only told by boeing that

david: we can attribute that thinking to jay powell. not raising rates makes bonds more attractive.ess of $100 billion. david: we want to come back to nfib.a duggan now of sorry, we had to cover that news. there is some concern about economic conditions. juanita: members tell me every day that business is booming. if you look at the last 24 months or longer since the election, this is the healthiest in the best small business economy and 45 years. my members tell me they have orders, but one of the problems they have is that they can't find qualified workers to do the jobs. our chief economist will tell you can buy a truck, but if you don't have somebody to drive that truck, it will not help grow your business. we can see they are doing a lot more to train qualified workers, and it is not just skilled workers. --is soft skills color thing soft skills causing business under problems right now. alix: they are spending on new equipment, vehicles, facilities. in your world, how much of the large money is going to versus a -- is going to capex versus a buyback or mna? >> obviously share

. >> the biggest drop since october 3 when jay powell said we are a long way from neutral. the inverted yield curve, has anyone mentioned it today? that it is still helping financials. tracksk at the etf that regional banks. 10k in september, when the year was still at 3.2%. ake luke said, it seems like lifetime ago. you look at the 10 year today, about about 2.5%. right where we were last week. we are seeing changes. as it comes to the yield curve, you have to take it as a signal if it remains. we will have to see if we can stay in positive territory. is it also friday, the labor data -- i'm sure joe is still holding his breath. >> in terms of the employment report, we expect the trend to continue. we saw some really weak february numbers that can be attributed to weather. three month averages at about 186. that is late job growth in terms of this stage of the cycle. what we've been talking about with clients, the american household is in great shape. their debts are manageable, the labor market is as strong as it has been since the 1960's. wage inflation has been moving h

courtney: president trump's relationship with jay powell is reportedly not getting any better.sident blasted towelette three meetings in the past week. the journal says he blamed the dead for holding back the company -- the fed for holding back the company and the stock market. "i guess ijay powell am stuck with you." authorities want to know what a woman was doing at trumps mar-a-lago resort in california. -- in florida. told to talk as member of the trump family about u.s. chinese relations. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much. i'm just trying to do the math. , closed in can tell a bull market, 20% off its lows. ftse 100 finishing at session highs. the pound was higher which did at a drag on the ftse 100. tobacco stocks weaker. the dax outperforming today strongly on the back of the decent data we have seen. decent chinese data has in a contributing factor to what we have seen in terms of the dax. you can tune in to

. >> there is a lot of people who feel that jay powell's bear market that little period really shook ople >> "the journal" says that's what the president calls him >> sounds like powell is being a little defensive and he's not going to leave, adioigight >> he does not need to say a thing, everybody respects him and knows him in the bank business one of the things he did was reverse. >> the anger now is what he did prior to reverse >> there was this period in the country where we were all shocked. gary freedman is a good man. the high end world just got shocked because they felt that the stock market went down that hurt a lot of people, a lot of people were also hurt b by -- the polar vortex that happened during the martin luther king day weekend, the weather did play havoc when home depot uses the weather, it is real. home depot does not like excuses so we have the weather and the market >> interesting corporate >> something's up. >> cigna is up. it is one of the good guys it really wanted to do well. >> cigna >> intel is going to be helping out the dow as we mention semis. they stole

now, having said that, with regard to jay powell who's a friend, he's a fine person. i think he's going to turn into a good fed chairman. speaking personally, he has my confidence, and we have some great -- rich claire da is the vice chairman. he's a very old friend of mine. i think he's a brilliant, brilliant guy, and i think they will work well. as i say, we wish they hadn't raised. i noticed from the various reports and so forth that they've changed their view. i don't think rates will rise in the foreseeable future, maybe never again in my lifetime. whether they will fall, i wouldn't mind them falling. i'm not storming the ramparts. again, fed is independent and i don't have any problem with that. >> along those lines -- >> i'm not sure there are, i'm not sure the differences between the fed's world view and our world view are as big as they are sometimes portrayed. all right? i'll just make that statement. >> that's fair. we've talked to some republicans who say that herman cain cannot get the votes to serve on the fed board s. is the administration standing by o

he agreed the markets are betting that jay powell is "considerably more likely to lower rates." president trump has argued the fed is needlessly restraining u.s. growth at a time of low inflation. india's trade deficit widened in march from a month earlier as higher oil prices raised costs. billion,eached $10.9 up from february and more than a billion wider than seen in bloomberg surgery. weakening global growth and trade are a threat to emerging economies. china's treasury holdings rose for a third month as beijing adopted more u.s. government debt amid the continuing trade war. tona's holdings increased just over $1.1 trillion in february. japan remains the second-biggest holder with just over $1 trillion, and that is up $2 billion from january. powered by more than 2700 journalists in more than 120 countries, i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. shery: china is said to be considering a u.s. request to shift some tariffs on key agricultural goods so the trump administration can sell any eventual deal as a win ahead of the 2020 elections. joe sobczyk has the story. are we s

he is not happy with the way jay powell and company are carrying on. we also had mario draghi voicing concern about the independence of the fed. in big a factor is this terms of the way the people view the dollar at this point? well, i think to the extent that this is confined in tweets or personal verbal exchanges behind closed doors and leakages natural through the press, i don't think it is going to be a big deal. but if the market starts sniffing there is the slightest probability of the fed independence being compromised, i think we are talking about a totally different ballgame. i think it is going to be outright dollar negative immediately, but over the medium-term, i have no idea where this is going to extend itself because we will collapse under central-bank independence. vonnie: talks will be taking place between japan and the u.s. , and obviously continuing ones between china and the u.s. will they have any impact on where the yen goes or the yuan? there has already been an effect on the yuan based on what has happened in the second half of

investors await tomorrow's fed rate decision and jay powell's news conference. in profits reported thanks to rising income from foreign-exchange and investment. >> just why is the billionaire investor opening a real estate brokerage office here amid such a prolonged property market

both believe the economy can run hotter, and trump is all over it -- all over jay powell for what heays is throttling the growth we deserve to have an holding back the stock market. thele on the left of democratic party agree with donald trump on very little, also believe the economy can run hotter. the fed finds itself being attacked from two different directions. jason: and running hotter would mean do not raise interest rates or even cut them? carol: right. peter: the unemployment rate could even fall. maybe people are ok with that. carol: this idea of combining federal reserve policy with fiscal policy, the fed giving up some of its independence and may working with, i guess congress or something, or the government on fiscal spending policies. peter: larry summers is one of the people who has been talking about the secular stagnation as being a persistent, chronic threat, and saying that the fed alone cannot tackle that. a chronic shortfall of private investment demand, so we have more savings than investment. that pushes interest rates down and the government can come in by spen

we will hear more dissent, we have had not heard dissent under jay powell. i think that first dissent will come from either stephen moore or hermann came if they survived the confirmation prices. some moderate republicans have expressed concerns. an advocate for returning to the gold standard so there are some questions about the economic policies of both moore and kane. vonnie: i'm and ask you something similar. do we get a change of effectiveness -- economic policy if we get a different shaped federal reserve? possibility, i a think the most important thing is to focus on the flow. there are risks from around the world that might influence a lot of the data which the fed looks at on a month-to-month basis. if you get or sought -- or start to see softer payrolls, they will be more important. that said, the president could put someone in place who is a lot more dovish and would support his view and reflect his view more closely. i think the data will be the important thing. guy: we will talk about europe in more detail. but given the fact that the u.s. econo