>> i think jay powell is running from behind, as we all know. his job is just not done.arkets have tried to be kind and anticipate not only the fed being done, but success quite frankly. we see some extraordinarily benign expectations. i think from where we are sitting, it is very important for the fed to be clear about what data they are looking at to guide their policy. they cannot keep doing what they did over the last six months to nine months, which is change their data, their favored data point of choice to meet the narrative. they have to be very clear in signaling to markets what is the data that matters, is it employment, is it headline inflation? is it inflation expectations? and how they believe what the path to their success is going to be. scarlet: that makes perfect sense. the big question is how long he will be running this marathon for. as investors look at the market and try to suss out who comes out ahead, pricing power is top of mind in this inflationary environment. what sectors or kinds of companies are most vulnerable right now when it comes to pric

goldman sachs says jay powell will likely raise rates 75 basis points on wednesday.hat's the fourth aggressive move in a row. my opinion, jeff, it has to be a big move or jay powell loses credibility. what's your response? >> to me jay powell has lot credibility from the minute he said inflation is transitory. now what i find with jay powell is that he is doing -- the fed's new strategy is to take the path of least embarrassment and they've blown their credibility and they've made mistakes and they're probably not going to make the same mistakes again. they're just going to make different mistakes and the mistake they're going to make this time is raising interest rates too high, too fast. they're going to move towards putting us in more of a recession to do something about the inflation so they're at a point right now where them regaining credibility is extrems unlikely as you putting on a halloween costume and going trick or treating tonight. stu: very good, jeff. there's people that tune in every monday morning to see you bash somebody. really cool stuff. thank yo

for today's september inflation reports and what it could mean for fed policy and fed chairman jay powell and that playbook in washington, d.c., the white house scrambling to contain the unexpected fallout from its decision to curb china trade with chips now another company is issuing a warning to shareholders. >>> opec is firing back yet again over allegations it's siding with russia amid its latest output cut, as crude bubbles back to near 90 bucks a barrel. >>> and call it the bank of he can land blame game. new comments this morning over what has been seen as a true failure of fiscal policy and later on, the activists are not done yet with one struggling retail chain it's thursday, october 13, 2022. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc >>> good morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan let's kick off your thursday morning with u.s. equity futures as the s&p looks to avoid a seven-session losing streak and bounce off its lowest close since november of 2020 futures right now indicating some modest gains at the opening bell akin to what we saw, remember, in yesterd

jay powell told us to focus on the latter. he says the only curve that matters.nsing, their job is done do you think they will go through with the rate hikes, all of the hawkish rhetoric they have been laying out? >> well the market right now is predicting that they will increase up to 5%. they're at 3% now. taking that back to mortgage rates, i saw the 30-year fixed at 7.2% as of yesterday, the day prior. that means if, if, jay powell is able to get up to 5% like the market thinks, that puts mortgage rates at about 10%, 10%. just think about that so we're already seeing softness all across the west coast in nominal prices. what happens to prices if mortgage rates go up to almost double digits? i mean it is kind of unbelievable to think about that. that is while unemployment is very, very low. so going back to what you're talking about with the inversion of the yield curve, that is a very powerful predictor of recession, especially when the three-month and the 10-year invert like it has just a couple weeks ago. it did again yesterday. it has been inverted through

how jay powell and company are destroying the middle class.ll go into this with smart details with danielle dimartino booth. plus president biden stepping up his war on oil companies and capitalism. tracy shuchart on the cost of this dangerous political move. what would you pay for a twitter check mark? share with mee @cvpayne. i got a whole lot of good once. all that and much more on "making money." ♪. charles: needless to say it has been one heck of a month for the stock market and everyone is wondering if the cyclical trends, by the way they were perfectly aligned. this is market history in this year's session. then all of a sudden came jackson hole. yikes!. okay. powell of course, he blew this whole thing to smithereens. history went this way. the market went that way. we're sort of in the same pattern right now but if powell says the right thing, many people wonder if we could jump back up there to get it all together? mean while many professionals, here is the thing though, many market professionals are still upset with you, folks, becau

the guidance from jay powell will be the center. jobs data on friday and cpi out of the u.s.t week as well. a central seven to 10 days. pointing lower. surveillance early edition is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ millions have made the switch from the big three to the best kept secret in wireless: xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year with the fastest mobile service. and now, introducing, the best price for two lines of unlimited. just $30 per line. there are millions of happy campers out there. and this is the perfect time to join them... save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon and at&t. just take the xfinity mobile savings challenge today to see how much you can save. >> this is bloomberg surveillance: early

mary daly has started to soft and the rhetoric a little bit, which is a bit different than having jay powellt and the rhetoric. which created that sort of temporary pivot trade. what is most interesting to me is what is occurring with the balance rate. raising rates disincentivizes future lending and future borrowing, adds to the money supply. when you're talking about these assets, which off of the balance sheet, that liquidity is taken out of circulation immediately. so when you theory about the fed is that this is a controlled burn. they are going to keep going until they break something, because they have to actually find out where that threshold of liquidity exists, and they are not going to be able to do that until they see a meaningful crack. and i do think that they have their pivot plans. obviously the pivot during covid was historical. and they know they can pivot things very quickly. my new theory is the controlled burn theory. kathleen: but that theory could write investors along the way, we have seen a couple of instances of liquidity that people thought was a sign of pending po

. >>> we have a news alert out of washington >> fed chair jay powell is facing new political pressurethe chairman of the senate banking committee, democratic sherrod brown issued an open letter warning of the risk of higher rates on the employment market he said: i ask that the fed not for get the responsibility to promote maximum employment and that the decisions you make at the next fomc meeting reflect your commitment to the dual mandate. sherrod brown says they must avoid having short-term advances in the economy and strong labor markets get overwhelmed by the consequences of aggressive monetary actions he also said that higher interest rates have not prompted companies to bring down prices of course, it's important to remember we are two weeks out from the midterm elections democrats are trying to sharpen their message on inflation now we have the chairman of the senate banking committee asking jay powell to not forget the impact that rate hikes could have on the job market contessa. >> ilan, can i jump in for a second >> sure. >> we were talking the last hour about jay powell i

in the country in general now, it's horrible, not necessarily directed at the fed, and i'm sure jay powell of appearinger bursts out anywhere these days. but the point is that the powell fed is not going to have to put the economy through the kind of wringer that the volcker fed did. paul volcker inherited an inflation problem vastly, vastly larger, deeper, stronger, more ingrained than jay powell has to deal with now. not to minimize what powell is dealing with it's a serious issue but, you know, paul volcker had to wrestle with the 800-pound gorilla of inflation, and he did. >> i can't wait to get ahold of the book it sounds fantastic. we appreciate the guidance as always we'll talk soon. thank you. >> thanks, bye >>> still to come, we're going to talk energy prices and the diesel shortage in the u.s nat gas touched its lowest level since march earlier today. trading higher right now so are wti and brent crude futures. don't go anywhere. fsd pharma is developing new treatments for neuro and inflammatory disorders. in a breakthrough discovery, fsd pharma recently demonstrated positive eff

i got to say i wish jay powell could be more like ben bernanke instead of paul volcker.lowly, scholarly. all powell wants to do is reconstruct some fantasy image of paul volcker 40 years ago, a larger than life superhero, who will cause all kinds of pain in the world for all your good. all it takes is courage. all it takes is courage. be like ben bernanke. it takes brains, sobrietity. good on you, my friend, ben bernanke. charles: wall street certainly loved his reign. wall street breaking down here somewhat, all the technical levels. looks like it will be tough near term. what are your thoughts how people make it through this near-term weakness? >> i think the first by word here is that it is just way too late to sell. by the time you say, right now we have 25% correction in the s&p. so what is your trigger? 26%? i'm sorry, that is not a time machine. fine you can go back to january if that is what you could do. you need to look at buying opportunities here. charles: all right. don, thank you so much, my friend. appreciate it. >> thank you, sir. charles: coming up, folk

the post jay powell speech at jackson hole, it was a rapid increase in volatility, you can see the last few days in the market, and there's been a real change in interest rates and risk ratings for leverage credits. there's a significant amount of transactions that are still hung in bridge loans in the banking system that have to get cleared. i can't tell you the exact day it will happen, but i'll tell you there's a real feeling out there that it's containable to a timeframe. i don't know if that's ten weeks or four months, but it just feels like there's a wave that has to get behind us of re-valuation, interest rates and resetting valuations. >> it comes to the fed pause, your market outlook depends on how much more you think there is left to do for the fed and ultimately what the next move is replayed a sound bite when you were with me in davos in may saying you don't think there's a recession coming you've been right so far we've had negative growth but it hasn't felt that way the unemployment picture is pretty good. have you changed your tune about what you think is happening in thi

all i can say to jay powell and cannot is that yes, keep raising rates but nothing lasts forever. andrew in new york andrew >> caller: hi. big fan. actually, my 13-year-old son is here and he has the question so i'm going to set him on thank you. >> excellent >> caller: hi, there cramer. this is moe. thank you for taking the time to talk to a 13-year-old giants fan. >> well, 13 yes. giants fan, no but that's okay. go ahead >> caller: i have a couple of thousand dollars to invest and i was hoping for your opinion of what i should do with it i was thinking of either inflation-adjusted bonds or an index fund if you think an index fund is a good idea, in which sector and should i wait until the market calms down >> no. you're 13 years old, you should be in the most aggressive index fund possible that has a lot of high risk high growth because you've got your whole life to make back if you make a mistake. not bonds. those are for much later and i can tell you've got horse sense because you put that idea of an index fund in your mix but let's make it a high growth fund that would be the

what a beat match or miss could mean for fed chair jay powell's next move. >>> and china ev giant looking to move to the west and the next stop is europe this is a potential competitor to tesla >>> and why shares of amd are taking a hit on the chin down 5% in pre-market. "worldwide exchange" is back in two. real-time ticket upgrade! meaning... i get to meet my childhood idol. that works. i named my dog joey fatone. when your customer experience works, the world works. that's why the world works with servicenow. pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. that's why the world works with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! yes you can! i can do better, too! see how easy it is to save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today. >>> time for the big money movers shares of amd under pressure ahead of

you can optimize around that you can see jay powell doesn't want to enter the history books as arthururns. he wants to be a tough cescentr banker inflation got out of control and we got it back under control that was the message of the market take the tradeoff that the fed has with employment. he has said for now there is no tradeoff inflation is the focus we will get the job done that was healthy i think central banks should give clear guidance. ecb is still not clearly decided or in communication of the travel of the next 12 to 15 months since jcackson hole conference. >>> we have the stoxx 600 at 0.5% higher building on the friday gains we saw european markets out perform the u.s. by a wide margin on friday faring much better than u.s. counterparts uk politics is moving in a friendly direction providing for sentiment here in europe we are seeing strength in the british pound. breaking it down by region here is the board. ftse 100 up .60% the ibex in spain up 1.25% sw sector wise, here is the picture. utilities in front along oil and gas. we are seeing the oil price move higher this

. >> people think jay powell is asleep at the wheel. >> jay powell is driving the economy into a brick wall and it's become a liability at this point. >> laura: what exactly would any of them have powell do? i'm not a big fan of powell's but biden is the one who was downplaying the red lights flashing 18 months ago on inflation and depletely dismissing larry summers pumping owl billions in more covid recovery cash which super charged inflation. it was all so predictable. and now, well, inflation is devowing up the 5% wage increases that workers have, on average, seen. as food prices for the year that ended in august increased by a staggering 13.5%. that is -- gas prices are climbing again we know that, opec is shrinking its output by a million barrels a day. and because biden has knee capped our own oil and gas industry, we're at opec's mercy. how wonderful. how sick is this? soon we're all going to be at six bucks a gallon for gas that they're already paying now in california. yay. other than that, how was the play, mrs. lincoln. now, once in a while, though, truth does slip in. some

inflation running away from you, you've got to get a grip on the first with a view look at what jay powell is doing with the fed, he tried to induce a mild recession now because it preferred to take pain up front and let this linger on, which makes it worse for savers, homeowners, everything. you've got rising interest rates with the people are knocking to afford extra 8% interest rate rises. the whole system will break down. i am concerned. i also think that when the government does u—turn and do the government does u—turn and do the right thing it is too late then because it loses all the political capital it could of got by making these recessions up front and early. us reviews saudi legs on the front of the guardian. we have that much of the guardian. we have that much of the article but is someone who is in washington for so long representing uk interest and therefore often working with the meta— administrations, what do you make of this move? after the fist pumps and humiliation to feldspar. and then getting the knock—back with opec say no, when i get a boost production to help bring

jay powell is in a tough decision, whether to keep tightening or overshoot and if you do that becauseking at the data. it is very difficult to get that right. but there is no doubt that something has to be done about inflation. we just have to watch and see, and it looks like we are edging to an overshoot, but far it be for me to give jay powell advice. lisa: how much does china factor into your outlook? how much is the potential for them to open up from a zero covid policy or e emerged from some downturns they have experienced -- or have emerged from some downturns experienced and how does it factor into the forecast or not? dir. okonjo-iweala: as mentioned, the war in ukraine, and china is another big factor with the push, and the slowdown and what it means. and whether that is going to continue and we are going to have a lockdown. and china, the economy continues to slow. that will have a big impact on the world economy, and i really fear of developing countries and developing markets. lisa: just to broaden out, we have witnessed a change where suddenly governments cannot finance t

jay powell threw out there three month, 10-year was favorite one. want to talk about the 10-year yield curves. how inverted it is. are we looking, is the fed looking at it thinking they are closer to their goal? how should we look at it as investors? >> so two things. one the fed is not looking at this. what the fed is looking at is inflation. that is their big thing right now. they want to find inflation. they will keep hiking rates until the inflation number gets more toward the target of that 2% goal. they will hike rates 75 basis points next week. probably 50 basis points. what we're looking for there, more importantly language from the fed they will slow the pace of rate hikes. that should be fairly good for the stock market. but what the yield curves tell you, never in history have we had this many yield curves inverted and not gone into recession. now soft landing that generally suggests weak growth but not a recession. so, what the yield curves are telling you is we're likely going to have recession sometime next year. might be a small reces

inflation running away from you, you've got to get a grip on the first with a view look at what jay powelld to take pain up front and let this linger on, which makes it worse for savers, homeowners, everything. you've got rising interest rates with the people are knocking to afford extra 8% interest rate rises. the whole system will break down. i am concerned. i also think that when the government does u—turn and do the government does u—turn and do the right thing it is too late then because it loses all the political capital it could of got by making these recessions up front and early. us reviews saudi legs on the front of the guardian. we have that much of the guardian. we have that much of the article but is someone who is in washington for so long

put the federal reserve in a position where they basically are at war with our elected officials jay powellnemployed workers who can be used to fill the positions spawned by the infrastructure bill and the ridiculously named inflation reduction act. we basically have to fire peter to hire paul or maybe even fire peter to hire peter. it might be at a lower wage. in the end because it takes the federal government ages to do anything i have no doubt that the federal reserve will succeed in getting people fired faster than washington can get them hired. but this is all so much more frustrating than it needs to be because the federal reserve really does have to take its cue from cleveland fed president loretta mester, who wants to raise interest rates relentlessly even as the unemployment rate starts to climb higher she recognizes that only a ruthless series of rate hikes can break the back of wage inflation in this environment. particularly when the federal government's behind it that's why the sifrp's more precarious than usual. if the federal government hadn't injected so much stimulus and if

quit a week we have on our hands and we'll from jay powell and i'm curious how you think we should evenman reports are disturbing i have to admit that mike wilson's sharp decline and inflation piece is stronger and more rigorous than the goldman piece. i think he's got a better handle on it. he's got a better handle on everything we have to look back and say there's this big donor deal going on between tech and the rest of the market and the downgrades seem almost tiresome when you have a downgrade of caterpillar. are you kidding me we are having a major move in this market away from leaders, a very small group of leaders and many different parts of the economy including one goldman likes and to me that says if the fed tightens 75 and then says you know, we're going to wait. you will have another leg up and have a good november and then we go to the midterms and that's good so i think there are a few more down days and we have a good run at thanksgiving. >> it's unheralded. >> what people are trying to understand is this a short term run and a bull rally in a bear market or is this some

time for the week ahead, plenty of central bank decisions once again the rba tuesday fed chair jay powellnesday, followed by the bank of england and finally closing out the week the main event the u.s. payroll report. 200 k is the median estimate and our survey so far. down from 200 63 k -- 200 63 k in the past three months. let's get the rapidfire. three quick questions, three quick answers to most go to the bond market on the 10 year. four -- 4.33 have we seen the high for the tenure? >> no. >> yes. >> no. jonathan: the federal reserve decision come a lot of people anticipating 75 is this the final 75 basis point hike of this cycle? >> yes. >> yes. >> yes. jonathan: final question i've asked us a few times on this program the last few weeks has -- does qt live to see 2023. yes or no? >> yes. >> yes. >> yes. jonathan: to the three of you, thank you, have a wonderful weekend. from new york city, that does it for us, closing out the week with a massive run on the equity market even with a big selloff in the bond market to close off the week. i will see you same time same place next week on

i'm saying it was really 2016 when the economy was back -- >> and jay powell. >> he was in 2015 and 2016 the economy wasn't in a position ready to shift and we got into a position frankly politically in this country where we had a president who was out there publicly screaming from the rooftops to keep interest rates low as humanly possible. we debated about the politics of interest rates and federal reserve and the political pressures on the federal reserve chairman >> then it was right i think we are thinking about too many economics four guys every year some other guy on the opposite side wins one. by the time you are done, opposite opinions have won nobel prizes in economics because it is not a science it's a dismal science. paul krugman >> you had trump screaming for lower interest rates some of the politicians on left were elizabeth warren and others were mad about raising rates now. that's why the fed should be an independent organization. >> i'm not on that side of things i don't think a deep economic slowdown is the great way to try to take care of mistakes you made by printing

. >> yeah, but if you're jay powell, you're thinking, okay, when do i have an impact here?nd this is not a great report, if you're the fed. yes, they've got them. we know the job openings have come down, but there's nothing in here that makes it so that you -- this is -- that we don't have big down october. >> the unemployment rate went down again, which is good. it's funny because we -- >> stop being so charitable toward the poor. i mean, that's what you feel like >> right, when you say -- when you say, oh, we'd rather have it higher because it would mean the fed is getting what it wants instead, it's actually lower than it was. >> we there was one paragraph i'm going to read because i think it's never talked about. it's driving me crazy. among those not in the labor force in september, persons were preventing from looking for a job due to the pandemic. in may 2020, 9.7 million persons were prevented but there's still 42 to 50,000 people who are not looking for jobs what's the real number i think it's substantial how about the buyouts? they're substantial. so, i mean, we g

what you're seeing this year.s past week from united, visa, coca-cola, if consumers keep spending, jay powell call the cops and say, we have to get the noise volume down. we have to get these people to go home because this is not sustainable to have inflation continuing to run higher and higher and higher. >> that's hard to explain sometimes. things -- some things are going to get more expensive by design. it's going to get more expensive for you to borrow money because of what's happening. coming back to the issue of abortion, amy and ed, i think it's interesting the dynamic seems to have changed on this in terms of bringing out voters up. were saying, ed, people feel inflation, perhaps, is a more immediate crisis than abortion access. i wonder, amy, because it's so different state by state. >> it's quite interesting, actually. we're seeing democratic, especially candidates for the house, having the most trouble is actually in blue states, like the of as py rnia, places where well settled. these are moatic-rtate codified or it's democratic and the governors' candidates have all pledged to go

it was around the timing of jay powell's reappointment as fed chair.recognize the issues around hi cdi. at least one senator did oppose's reappointment on the basis that he was being slow to act. he said there is an enormous number of companies miss value today. he said that is because of the changes in the industry dynamics. he said they are inexperienced or otherwise they are moving completely out of the market. i don't know that it ever comes back. there have been serious changes to the market structure. pretty much all of our investors have been put out of that. >> she spoke with us as well. she says the fund has been a poster child for that. >> that is right. a pretty interesting topic for this interview. she vented her frustration this weekend in an open letter to the fed. it was criticizing whether they are making policy missteps here. in terms of what we see in the war in ukraine and other factors. they are really looking for safety in passing the benchmark. this is what she told us about it. we have so many more problems now. the invasion of u

. >> how much insurfluence does te world bank have on the federal reserve or jay powell? i don't know i think the view has shifted and so much fear in the economy and maybe the view is he will let up a little bit. >> i don't know it will have that much influence. at the end of the day, jay powell said what he thinks is the right thing to do which is to raise rates maybe higher than markets expected and keep them there higher to drive inflation down none has spoken to that being achieved jay powell spoke about pain. he moved away from the discussion of the narrow path to a softish landing. this is all part of what is to be expected when rates are starting to tighten. >> roger, when you look at the quote fear with credit suisse and in the uk. even in australia, by the way, they increased the rate less than anticipated is this all a sign that things went too far too fast? >> i think it is a sign of a couple of things the uk had a special situation of poorly communicated fiscal policy by the government that is a unique situation i think what is going on in markets, they are b

can jay powell talk about slowing down the rates but still talk about progress? what's more important? >> what would be damaging for the kind of me and fed officials have recognize this is to allow inflation to persist at levels that are well above target. we were joking about the idea of getting a three or four or 5% inflation target. implicitly, that's what happens if the fed continues to miss on their inflation mandate. if you continue to miss to the upside on inflation, you embed a higher rate of inflation and i think we are seeing some of the concern associated with not knowing how much wages or prices will be going up. that's the real risk for fed officials and that's why stopping to early is a risk and could imply hiking further at a later date. you have an upside and downside risk. the primary risk right now is the risk that inflation remains too high. lisa: they are basically communicating that inflation will remain higher than their target. how much do you think they have already done that by not indicating some sort of downturn or something that is mor

. >> if you're jay powell, i don't think -- i think 175 and stop. he thinks he's doing 150 for the rest of the year >> no, no, no, no, no, no. >> that's what the market says it is going to do. >> you know what else i thought? okay, we're going to raise rates. we need to normalize rates this darn economy is pretty solid. and in the end, i'm not going to say at the end of the day, in the end, we want a resilient economy. so i know that near term it is like, my god, the fed has to go even further but isn't it nice that we do have this really strong economy to start with, that is going to probably survive whatever the fed does, and hopefully we come roaring back with lower inflation? hopefully that's what happens. >> the question is, if that's true, and you -- that's like the optimistic case, when is the churn? >> was it yesterday? >> i don't know. >> if you believe that the market discounts stuff, we haven't had people saying, look, when this does -- when there is the slightest indication that inflation might be moderating -- i don't know -- at this po

jay powell laid it out clearly at jackson hole.e do not want to repeat the mistakes of the 1980's. in his opinion, the mistakes there were once you had a little bit of a turn towards recession, the fed turned around and cut rates and inflation revived. they don't want to take that risk. the absolute most they might pause, there is a danger that the earlier they pause, the longer they disappoint markets by holding rates high. that has also been a concern. haidi: are there mistakes being made potentially when it comes to the need for structural reform for the treasury market? you have been partnering over there. if we have a liquidity situation, u.s. treasuries have been a global benchmark. what does that mean for other assets, for contagion for global bond markets? garfield: in many ways, this is the question of the year. because, there have been lots of illiquid caches in treasuries trading and as the year has gone on that has become more widespread and done more damage. there is a narrative there is no such thing as a risk-free ra

jay powell saying he watches that survey very closely, how does that change the view from markets in terms of pricing around the fed? kristine: the university of michigan and u.s. cpi came in higher-than-expected, drives the point that the fed has a lot more to do to tackle inflation. it was interesting earlier in the week, there was a nuanced change on the way the fed was communicating. it seemed like they are starting to recognize the global impact of their policy and being mindful of that especially in the minutes of the september meeting. but when the data came out, that shifted the conversation back to the fed's primary focus, getting inflation down in the u.s., regardless of what potential risks that may pose the rest of the global economy. that's where we are at the moment which leaves the rest of the world either scrambling to catch up, or having to deal with the painful consequences of stronger dollar and a global economy that would [indiscernible] francine: karim chedid stays with us. china's president declares that the nation's global power has increased while warning of d

company in an industry raises price and that's the signal that everyone should raise price, and jay powello break that, and i think he is sophisticated enough to know that's really at the heart of non-wage inflation. >> interesting yeah movie business, jim. we're going to get imax tonight. this downgrade of paramount making some noise at wells >> the paramount noise it's done too well it's time to go. david, it's time to -- how have you done in paramount? >> yeah. our call, i know we can't -- no longer justify its premium multiple it does have a premium multiple. >> to what premium multiple to what >> warner brothers, discovery. it's got a premium multiple. >> i know, but i'm saying -- >> you're talking here, i mean, free cash flow is basically just equal to the dividend payment, which, of course, the dividend has to stay in there because national amusements wants their dividend >> amc, right? premium multiple >> they're not in the same group. >> no, i'm talking about -- i'm broadening the group >> you are really from the people who make the content to the people who show it >> best buy. >

coming this week the market is over sold as it was when the pandemic started as over sold when jay powell talked about lock step rate hikes in late 2018 could it be peak over sold we saw the dollar drop 4% in a few days peak back. we have the possibility of elon musk paying full price for twitter. no question. let's call it peak enthusiasm to put it kindly for a brand worth way less now that is indeed a range of great peaks, i don't know, rivaling himalayas and one that should be irrelevant but played a role in today's bullish session. what does the navigation of this high peak region tell us about the stock market in your portfolio? let's say things are very much in flux because each day gives us a new piece of data that impacts the market, most importantly the two-year treasury i want you to consider the two-year as a kind of thermometer, all right when a piece of data comes in hot, the thermometer shows the medicine means yes, rate hikes coming into this weak i'd say the thermometer was 103 degrees. we're very much in need of the rate hike medicine we don't know the dosing this is impo

rates, they are telling you they want to go into restrictive territory and at the last meeting, jay powell told you we are just barely entering restrictive territory. have a long ways to go, the fed is going to continue. when the market realizes that, we might see some pullback in the gains we've had the first couple of days this week. kriti: that brings me to the timing of it all. back in 1962, i don't expect you to know what happened then but basically it was the year of the cuban missile crisis but also the year of nine months of declines in the stock arc it only to get turned around by the cuban missile prices -- cuban missile crisis. is that what we need to turn the story around? >> it's not the ukraine issue, it's also the fact we are in a midterm election year. both of these issues are playing into this sentiment. typically in a midterm election year, you are also positive 6, 9, 12 months out. there is support for the market and if we see services continue to come down a little bit, obviously we have the jobs report the jolts number, let's see if we get participation rate going high

strike if we have a nationwide rail strike in a month, that's a whole different inflation story, and jay powell better put on hi conjunction function engineer hat. >> that would be a shock, and i think it would be a negative shock for the economy on top of slowing on the back of monetary tightening i don't think it would have to be something that chair powell would have to respond to he can't drive a train i think you just have to take it as a giving. if anything, that would certainly weaken the economy so even though it might increase inflation in the short run, i don't think it would require a response at all. if anything, it would make they kinder and gentler, i think. that would be a nasty, nasty shock. >> i mention it, because it's not impossible it's less than a month from now. paul, i appreciate it all time >> good to see you. >>> let's bring it back to the macro markets and the money. if we don't get a pivot from the fed, can this nice stock rally roll on? >> it sounds like he's more on the hawkish damp what would that matter for equity markets >> brian, nice to be with you again. i had

alix: let was vincent reinhart weighing in on what jay powell could and should be doing morgan stanleyays the fed is near the end of its tightening cycle. that takes us to the question of the day -- does the fed spook the fed disprove the market on wednesday? joining us now is bruce richards. the fed spook? bruce: spook is appropriate given today is halloween, but i would say probably not. they are going to continue to increase rates, but they are focused on being data dependent. that is key. inflation is starting to roll over. after wednesday's 75 basis point increase, i expect the fed to increase and increase again but this topic for .5%. that does not mean pivot. inflation will be sticky. it will stay sticky all of next year. the fed will not pivot next year. the markets are underestimating the thought the -- the thought that they will pivot and the lag in fed policy that will start to affect the economy next year. guy: first, when you say pivot, you mean cut? bruce: exactly. i do not think they reduce rates anytime next year. we stay at 4.5% and we talked about housing earlier in y

for today's september inflation reports and what it could mean for fed policy and fed chairman jay powell and that playbook in washington, d.c., the white house scrambling to contain the unexpected fallout from its decision to curb china trade with chips now another company is issuing a warning to shareholders. >>> opec is firing back yet again over allegations it's siding with russia ami

call them need to wake up to the fact that the fed is not going to be based on what we heard from jay powelle not going to be there to once again bail out all of those people and you saw it over the summer that the -- buy the dip rally and we need to jump in and buy a 20% dip instead of 30 or 50 and in order to break that psychology that developed over the 20 years, the fed needs to stand back and just say, we are going to just let investors feel the pain because if not then they will just be doom today repeat the same mistake and that's being at the ready with the bailout. >> i wish i could disagree with you. investors have to be really careful about getting into the fomo, the fear of missing out in the temporary releaf rallies, on the other hand, right, as a lot of terrific investors have said, these are the times in which fortunes can be made so you have to be looking carefully at the pricing of stocks that fit within some core themes, right, and we think things lick infrastructure with with absolute relentless explosion of data that's going to continue regardless of what happens with int

in fact, jay powell does not expect 75-point rate hikes to be common he's done three in a row and is slated to go on four the fed having gone so aggressive, which they needed to, has reached a wall of potential financial instability. it's no accident all of a sudden we have interventions from the bank of japan, the bank of england the other day. you don't want to cause financial instability. >> we've never seen the fed stop when it is less than the headline inflation rate. which means they have to raise 75 or lose credibility the market moves depends on the dollar if the dollar keeps retreating then the market can go higher. if the dollar firms up, i think the market retreats. just your comment on the dollar. >> the dollar from a technical perspective this year has been fantastic. it reached a multiyear trend line it's done that now two months in a row. massly overbought. i agree the dollar needs to continue to reverse. regarding the fed funds rate, we're in a very different economy after 14, 15 years of free money and debt accumulation, go back to 2008. we were at 64% debt to gdp to

volatility in the markets going to be low thanks to jay powell and manipulated credit down. liz: ryan, what should the fed do? >> back off. i've been waiting for them to do it for months. the bottom line here is, look, we know inflation numbers were higher than expected last week but they're backwards looking. look on the ground floor, commodity prices have come down significantly and supply chain and shipping costs have come down and biggest part of inflation number is housing. we know that house asing is a bg lag. i'm going zillow and rents are coming down. liz: no, they're not. not even a little bit. >> not in new york. liz: no, not in a lot of met metropolitan areas rent is incredibly high but coming down only slightly and people find that at the end of the month, paying their rent, they cannot afford much else beyond food and gasoline. >> as home affordability goes down and fewer people buy homes and will rents go up because it puts pressure on rentals? see what i mean. especially in urban areas. liz: what is the trade, chris? >> i go back to what our colleague said, th

democrats and now who runs the fed but he's a democrat nominee and democrat appointment that's jay powell him to say that, he's -- he's gasping for air here because he has nothing left to say if this is attack he's taking. can i show you the front page of the new york post. damn lies and joe biden about inflation. 8.2% inflation. there you go. maria: well with, i mean, i think that he knows that this has occurred on his watch and he knows that all of the spending has stoked inflation but he's just misinforming. i don't think he's unaware of how we got here. he's misinforming as he does over and over again. what do you think. joe: you're being generous to misinforming. it is lying to the mesh people, he was looking to the bright side of the moon with squinting, unsettling to watch during visit to los angeles yesterday and hee knows he could get away with this perhaps because many in the press run cover for this president. let me read you politico's headline, why the fed and biden won't proclaim mission accomplish even as inflation eases, eases to what, 8.2%. that's six times higher than it

kriti: the bank of canada, from the bank of her point of view, jay powell has over and over receive -- referred to that era of the 1970's, the 80's, paul volcker, they should not have paused when they did, they need to go full out and to go full out and be aggressive on inflation. is not that the message that the bank of canada and ecb is listening to as well? michael: the situation of europe is different than the u.s., where we had contributions to inflation, significant contributions from the stimulus package, with more money chasing fewer goods. the problem is that the europeans have particularly the war in ukraine and energy prices and the ecb can do a lot about that. because energy prices are so high, they anticipate they are going to have or are already in a recession. their view on what they need to do to try to get inflation down is a little different than the fed's. the fed wants to kill off demand. ecb knows it has a hard time doing that with recession in the forecast. canada is somewhere in between. they are in for a significant slowdown if not recession, so the bank of can

this will anger jay powell and should anger those who are getting in over their heads, folks. this was also always the plan and it always has been the plan. if you give you money, they want you to spend it and even more and that's exactly what's happened hence our predicament right now. hand it over to liz claman for another crazy last hour of trading. >> did you guys go to the program us mall without me? charles: i did but couldn't get the discounts without you. liz: these levels worse till about 1:35 p.m. eastern time and vice chair lael brainard gave hope to the rate doves saying the fed is attendtive to further avers -- attentive to further avers shocks and currency moves could interact with financial vol merri bowlabilities and the markets internetted -- vulnerabilities and the markets read that as doveish and freezing up the buy buttons earlier are very worry some on your screen. the semiconductor sector getting shredded on chip sales to china without permission and russia raining down on ukraine for the crimea bridge blast that's halted russia's machining and this week

buyers are hoping that maybe jay powell sees the news?tions demanding that central banks stop hiking rates. another global institution

the president is going to pay a political price for the mistakes that he and jay powell have made. >> early hours this morning with stewart varney. the vote is 29 days away. we'll see if the president's party pays a price at the polls as consumers pay more for just about everything. about everything. phil flynn, fox news contributor, joins me next. this is john. he hasn't worked this hard to only get this far with his cholesterol. taken with a statin, leqvio can lower bad cholesterol and keep it low with two doses a year. side effects were injection site reaction, joint pain, urinary tract infection, diarrhea, chest cold, pain in legs or arms, and shortness of breath. with leqvio, lowering cholesterol becomes just one more thing life throws your way. ask your doctor about leqvio. lower. longer. leqvio. i'm jonathan lawson here to tell you about life insurance through the colonial penn program. if you're age 50 to 85, and looking to buy life insurance on a fixed budget, remember the three ps. the three what? the three ps? what are the three ps? the three ps of life insurance on a fixed

>> if i was jay powell i would raise interest rates are point today just to play catch up with the 10 year yield but that's not going to happen. the 2 year yield is 4.3. he is way behind. i even watch powell anymore, i only watch the 10 year yield, that is been dictating policy. we see the market bounce, yields went about 4%, now they are back below but as long as they stay elevated it is not good news in the reason the market is balancing is the dow which holds a better down 5500 points in the last two months, 3800 points in the last month so if we bounce here, it will be just that bounce, the main trend has not changed, remain in the bear market that is getting more brutal by the day. ibly1 we've not seen the bottom yet? >> no. we've called the since last november. i'm yet to see something, don't want to blow this thing out, it washes everybody out, a lot of hope, a lot of speculation so i think there is more to go and i wouldn't be surprised to see a 50% nasdaq and i told you that 9 months ago. ibly1 any hope from the earnings report that starts tomorrow? >> i suggest the hope is g

and jay powell, who is an inveterate listener and never misses the show, keep up the good work.ou're going to get there. and the cleveland guardian -- >> loretta mester. >> dead right. >> we got a lot more to get to we'll get to the airlines. delta, before the bell, as jim mentioned, with a pretty good outlook for q4 we'll get to walgreens, blackrock, domino's, macy's, kohl's in a minu te nurse mariyam sabo knows a moment this pure demands a lotion this pure. gold bond pure moisture lotion 24-hour hydration no parabens, dyes, or fragrances gold bond champion your skin want more from your vitamins? get more with nature's bounty. from the first-ever triple action sleep supplement. to daily digestive support. to more wellness solutions every day. get more with nature's bounty. >>> delta's helping us kick off earnings season again today, getting a boost on fed guidance. ed bastian was on squawk earlier and talked about demand. >> i think the pent-up demand is going to continue. one busy summer isn't going to quench all the demand for travel that we've seen. our planes have been basi

. >> right >> i mean, does jay powell run the country right now?well have the ability to make it so that pelosi goes to the investor of italy the answer is, yes the answer is yes. >> you think so? >> yes >> well, in our world, he's certainly got a lot of influence. >> i think uk gave you a template that i think if you're the fed, you say, geez, we're about to elect -- we're about to have the senate and the house change hands because of things that we're doing, and i don't think that's -- after what happened in the uk, i no longer think that's chimerical. i think it's possible. >> b of a note looking at clients moving into short-term t-bills but also what they call a disorderly drop in commercial bank deposits coming on the heels of those bank earnings we got. >> i mean, that was not the read of the quarters, but yeah, it could be the two-year is at 4.6 it's really a tremendous buy as i say >> you've been saying it was a tremendous buy at 4, 3.9 >> it'm not taking a bath >> no because you're going to hold it to maturity. >> and you can borrow agains

they worry about what's coming next the big question is what does jay powell at the federal reserve think of this? for that i think most don't think he's going to change course and for that it's hard to really understand why we ended up the way we did today. >> i wondered if great britain had anything to do with it with their political reversal and maybe political changes coming. >> there's no question there's no question. you raised the right issue there's a view that maybe the u.k. is going to get out of the problems that they've had, at least bring back some semblance of currency in their own markets. that did play a role but i don't think that played the complete role in where we ended the day the question is of course where we'll end the week tomorrow. >> last inflation report before the november elections politically has got to be damaging for democrats >> it's very damaging unless the market continues to move the way it is now. however, i think most people on wall street are looking at this and, look, a lot of people want to look at this not glass empty but glass half full but to t

even said it himself, jay powell that he is concerned about it becoming entrenched. it will be much more difficult to slay. and so, i wouldn't, i don't want it. i'm not saying i want to see two 75 basis points but look they should have been more aggressive months ago. had they raised rates by one pull percentage point in the spring, probably would have responded then. now it is becoming more entrenched. it is becoming more difficult. that will force them to get, i think more aggressive. that is what my fear is. that we'll suddenly see unemployment start to tick up. you see the consumer start to pull back. you will see interest rates on revolving credit go even higher. interest rates on car loans go higher. mortgage rates will be kissing 8%. you will start to see a bigger slow down. neil: i'm hoping your wrong on all of the above, kenny. you've been pretty right about a lot of stuff. good to see you, my friend, kenny polcari following all the developments. imagine in this environment starting a new business, or starting a company you hope to become a major business. i