let's talk to jeff currie with goldman sachs.s a super cycle? >> we have been forecasting a super cycle since october of 2020 more than 18 months into this. this is not something new. we've been in it for a while i think uninvestors need to wrap their heads around it. open interest commodity markets collapsing equities, energy equities. severely under valued. in some cases, high as 30% bond yields in the energy space. the credit spreads every single metric you look at and as you pointed out, this is just beginning at this point the only way you are solving this problem on the longer-term basis is capital in the space and make investments and grow supply we cannot do this at this point right now. whether it is people afraid of the higher prices or esg >> jeff, if we are in the early innings of the so-called commodity super cycle, when do we see enough pressure brought on the market or enough pressure on the overall companies that they have to deploy capital? not just back to shareholders, but drill for oil and gas or is the whole

we will pose that question to jeff currie of goldman sachs next.omberg. ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. kailey: it is an hour into the u.s. trading session. bloomberg's abigail doolittle is tracking the moves for us. it is a debt buying day and we are right around session highs. abigail: what a difference a day makes. the s&p having its best day in more than two weeks. you also have the nasdaq 100 sharply higher, up 2.7 percent, speaking to the strength of some of the tech heavyweights does apple, microsoft, tesla. not surprisingly, the vix on the nasdaq 100

jeff currie taught micro economics at the university of chicago.ou could see the slopes of curves changing within war. jonathan: -- lisa: i'm still having a discussion in my head about covid in reverse and just remember to look opposite and think, is this a temporary shock? what are the implications of that? jonathan: i think we are all doing this in real time tom: you said $170? while. jonathan: we have not tested this before, and perhaps we are about to find out that they -- on the s&p, of zero point percent. yields higher by three basis points to 1.756 five and winding the move lower in yesterday's session. crude up to 6.6%. for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪ at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to keep you connected to what you love. and now, we're working to bring you the next generation of wifi. it's ultra-fast. faster than a gig. supersonic wifi. only from xfinity. it can power hundreds of devices with three times the bandwidth. so your growing wifi needs will

and goldman sachs one of the best, jeff currie joins us nt ex to explain stay tuned you're watching "or me and you ♪ ♪ and i think to myself ♪ ♪ what a wonderful world ♪ a rich life is about more than just money. that's why at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner so you can build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. >>> oil prices extending their gains this hour. you now have wti up at $125 a barrel, 124.99 president biden is apparently set to announce a ban on russian energy imports separately in a new note this morning, goldman sachs saying the global economy could be in for its largest supply shock in two years. goldman is raising its forecast to $135 a barrel joining us right now is one of the analysts behind that call, jeff currie at $125,000 is the oil market baking in the idea that the u.s. will go ahead with this and president biden will sign this ban? our base case 135 million barrels or $135 price target really embeds about a 2 million barrel per day disruption. i want to eamphasize, however, i this current environment the sea born

that was jeff curry this morning in a note, carl.europe in particular, is probably going to be staring down the fails of a massive recession. >> that's quick lip becoming consensus for sure brian, thank you very much >>> joining us to discuss b of a's head of u.s. mid cap strategy, and barclays yamish, let me ask you, the market has been asked to absorb a lot. what does that say >> its puzzling. the only way to explains it is the -- even if you see earlier in the year in january we had the 50 basis-point hikes priced in it actually took it well the only way to think about it is the market thinking -- if you follow the goldilocks as in the past having said that, we don't think it's that easy right north but -- it just makes the part very, very tricky. i think that's why the market seems to be a bit sanguine about it, we are a bit more ready. >> jill, would you agree how do we think about that through the lens of mid caps >> yeah, we expect this to be a volatile year for large caps in the s&p 500. we had a 4600 target on the market, so

oil prices up nearly 2% on that news joining us right now is jeff currie goldman sachs commodity headut it all morning, jeff. it's a tragedy what's happening over there right now, but we are looking at oil continues to spiral upwards. the question at the moment is does it continue a pace? is there some -- some off-ramp you see here how do you handicap this >> well, clearly, the situation has deteriorated, and as long as there's uncertainty around the conclusion on this outcome, the risk to the up side across all the commodity markets, not just oil but, you know, coal, wheat, aluminum, copper all very much exposed to what's going on i think the one more worse is wheat. you've got 20% of the world's wheat exports come out of ukraine. the situation was bad coming into this because you had very low inventories, very little spare capacity and not a lot of responsive supply to the higher prices you put that together with this disruption that is potentially the largest disruption we've ever seen in commodities, creates a lot of up sided risk here >> so that's the up side risk. is there any d

joining us now jeff curry, goldman sachs head of commodity and global research. i guess it's both.ems to dictate where the price goes >> absolutely. you know, for rightly or wrongly i think the big sell-off we saw yesterday was driven by covid concerns particularly the lockdouk in shanghai i think to your point you've got the offset what's going on in russia i think the key point here is covid demand disruptions are transient while the supply disruptions are far more persistent why? because you're not investing in russian investment capacity which is going to impact supply down the road. the net of this is still very bullish. we stick to a near term target of 120 and end of year target of 135. i think one of the key points here is it's not so much about the supply and demand of the commodity itself it's about the supply and tdemad of the capital used to create this commodity and even the commodity itself, liquidity is collapsing at a time it really needs this liquidity. >> since the -- the incremental wild card is russian oil and i don't know how many barrels out of 10 or is it one

time ago i got my fixed income education from steve major of hsbc and my commodity education from jeff currieleman sachs. he would say repeatedly equities are anticipatory asset class. with that in mind, at some point, no idea when or if this will happen, perhaps at some point we wake up on a morning where crude is rallying and energy equities are not participating. that is one to watch. lisa: that is one to watch when people start to book flights and say wait a second come of this price is way too high. i am not go to take that flight. i am going to drive less because of the cost to fill up the tank. how much is that what we are looking for for the breaking point here to break the cycle? jonathan: futures this morning down 0.6% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, down by 0.7%. as the session grows older stateside, equities continue to recover and yields keep climbing, up four basis points, one point 7751%. crude backing away from highs, up by almost 5%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to

i mean, jeff curry, not me, he runs commodities at goldman sachs, he knows what he's talking about, heabout a month ago, i've never seen anything like it in my 30 years in the business. we're running out of everything. i'm paraphrasing a little bit, not that much. all of these names work, quickly. cliffs -- clf, i bring it up because we're right at levels we topped out at in august of last year, critical levels. much more "fast money" right after this (vo) small businesses are joining the big switch. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ultimate business plan for the lowest price ever. plus choose from the latest 5g smartphones. get more 5g bars in more places- switch to t-mobile for business today. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq >>> welcome back to "fast money. check out rivian in reverse today. the ev-maker rolling back plann

. >> and this is not just energy jeff curry from goldman sachs a month or so has been doing this for 30 years he said since he runs commodities and he's never seen anything like it. we are running out of everything paraphrasing look across the spectrum of commodities. i know for a fact since last summer we've been talking about it for a while look at oih. look at where it closed today. we're talking about 285 being a natural level and for finally these equities catching up to the commodity and you saw that in spades over the last two or three trading days. >> here is the bigger question, dan, i'll direct this one to you, i think i know the answer you're going to give but can you be long the commodities trade and be long equities over the next couple of months does that make any sense to you? >> maybe i don't think you buy the commodity trade here it is gone if you've been watching the show, you hear tim and guy talk about the fundamentals an they've been improving for a long energy trade. i was on the other side of it and they were correct about that and this just threw a little fuel

jeff, the visits vin vanny curry was one of many, a rarer, struggling to survive a making. ready made it under any name when it was good, wendy is equal correct foot and now you would out even me and i got this, you know, how would i so low you'll get another to do full always. yeah, yes it from the now wind lady. well, i need to know metal or not yet school, any of that faded away? oh, there were we know you would only she knew me. we will own will of if will. i know you may. she may have been as you know, it, india cabinets, you know, when i have again douglas global myself could yes, could he had been any i've been i seen that yet. i got a benet bay, maddie to had dinner, got nice, you know, you know when you to one and all did of a little bull maddie mumble did the moment been work. what was i lumber given that randall that who do not understand? what you do is you have you go with nikki, then global vision, betty heath, and it's not only been a vanish generation, her suffering barring some kind of intervention. her children are unlikely to escape the cycle of poverty a

jeff, the visits vin of any curry was one of many, a rarer struggling to survive a making. ready cleaned it than drank a name when it was collect google engine is equal correct foot and out of your good. out even may not digital camera zulu, you'll get another to do full always. yeah. yes. it's under now. and when doing well, i need to know my flannel yoga school. any of that faded away? oh, there were we know you would only she knew me. we will own will be will i know you may. she may have been as you know it, india cabinet. gina. my name is again douglas global myself with your school you had been any i've been i seen that yet. i got a bna bay, maddie do that, then a got nice, you know, you know, when you to one in or did of amendable maddie rumble, did the moment available. what are gallano given that randall that who that do not understand that if you do is you don't have you go wrong, but with nicki then global, i'm getting ready to heat and it's not only been a vein, his generation, her suffering, barring some kind of intervention, her children are unlikely to escape

jeff, the visits vin of any curry was one of many, a rarer, struggling to survive. imagine you ready cleaned it than drank a name when it was pulling google engine is equal, correct. what and out of your good out. even man, i got this, you know, how would i so low you'll get another to do full always. yes. yes. it from the now and wind lady. well, i need to know metal or not yet the school in that faded away. oh, there were we know you would only she knew me. we will own will of if will. i know you may. she may have been, as you know, it, india burnett, sienna, my name is again, douglas global. my thought could escalate. be deemed any i've been, i seen that yet. i got a bna bay, maddie do that. then i got gwinnett, you know, you know, when you to run an audio vulnerable maddie mumble did the moment been work. what was that number given that randall that who do not understand that you put that on? as you do is you have you go with nicki, then we're good to from getting ready to heat. and it's not only been a vans generation, her suffering, barring some kind of interv

. >>> steph curry limping off the court, what happened and how the superstar is doing. >>> i'm chief meteorologist jeffking out of jail, new video from chicago, actor jussie smollett free on bond while he awaits appeal. judge sentenced smollett to 150 days in jail for conviction on felony counts for disorderly conduct and lying to police claiming had been victim of racist and homophobic attack. investigation revealed that the actor paid two men to stage the attack. he maintains his innocence. >>> search continues for teenage mother and son. delgado and 1-year-old son were seen at home in richmond sunday. she learned she and family would be relocating to another state and was upset. early in the morning, her mother discovered they were gone with personal belongings. if you have any information, call richmond pd. >>> federal prosecutors revealed that olympian and her dad had been the targets of chinese spying and intimidation. labeled enemies of china. liu said it began when he took part in the country's most famous protest. >> alysa wanted to become part of team usa for figure skating for olympic games,