guy: we were just speaking to jeff currie on goldman sachs.cts a significant bounce back in the cost of fuel, significant bounce back. u.s. carriers do not hedge. how big of a headwind could this be? sheila: we will see. one of the biggest problem we have been airlines right now is pricing. fueling is really passed on to the consumer with airline fares. we are looking at revenue per passenger. 20% increase in the q4 quarter, which delta will start on friday. we expect that to go up 10 by the end of the year. iffuel increases again, pricing will abate, but we think a weakened consumer will cause airline fares to come in. we do not cover oil, we cover the airlines and manufacturers, but we don't expect a big spike. but that will be passed through to the consumer at the end of the day. guy: looking forward to the delta numbers on friday. thanks for joining us, sheila kahyaoglu. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: as we come through to the end of the day in europe, european equities having a pretty good day. green on the screen. stoxx 600 at 447.60. miners,

dani: to the commodities point, jeff curry sang a bullish concoction is brewing.is words, not mine. i can never put together such an elegant phrase for commodities. that's thanks to low inflows and the commodity environment. thank you stephen innes, spi , asset management. coming up, ryan cohen back in the headlines but activism directed towards alibaba this time. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ dani: berg has learned that meme stock investor brian cohen who was responsible for the gamestop rally has bought a stake in alibaba and is pushing the chinese tech giant more shares. joining us now is bloomberg technology analysts -- analysts. ryan cohen has become synonymous with the wall street bets world and was active in gamestop we had that huge rally. what does all this mean if he is now engaging in alibaba? >> right. i think if you actually look at it, this is going to be a very interesting year for alibaba in 2023 even that was like there are many different voices within looking towards a company and how he actually manages these voices and still makes the best

set-up for commodities could be the best since the start of the supercycle in 2020 goldman cease jeff curry is here with more on that. another blow for tesla the stock now down more than 70% over the past year, so when will wall street finally throw in the towel? we'll talk to one analyst who still rates tesla a strong buy first, the markets bob pisani watching the action at the new york stock exchange ugly look here, bob? >> what happened to our rally? we were strong in europe, strong in asia, opened strong here, for ten minutes. and they sold right into it, particularly technology stocks some unusual things happening. take a look at the major indices. it looks a lot like last week. what do i mean the dow is a relative outperformer because of consumer staples and other names that are value-oriented s&p is kind of in the middle, and nasdaq is bearing the brunt of the losses. by the way, 10,326, we're approaching a 52-week low. we were there last week, remember that's what i mean it looks a lot like last week. normally in a big down year, the first thing you do in the new year is you buy som

alix: that was jeff curry of goldman sachs. pretty good debt is over at lagardere. of what jeff was talking about was china reopening, worth as much as five dollars on the oil is. we want to show how much that is not priced in quite yet. this is the double t i spread. -- wti spread. the lower this gets, the looser the market is supposedly going to be. the cheaper the prices are today versus six month out. we are pretty low at this point, picking up, but still getting out of negative territory. if china comes roaring back, if there is a lot more pent-up demand, how does this chart change? fundamentally, we're looking at storage that is pretty light. maybe that is not priced in the same way as you are looking at oil in the 70's. kriti: it's really fascinating when you're talking about what actually is inflationary versus disinflationary. this is still a very hot topic. jeff curry said that will add five dollars to the oil price. some people are saying this chinese reopening, the fact that it is faster than expected, is actually going to move oil in the opposite direct

jeff curry at goldman sachs predicting $110 for oil by the third quarter. ause of china demand. copper is on the rise. curry had a bullish rise on copper as well, i mention iron ore. that's not necessarily going to be reflected in the december numbers. it will be into, as jeff curry predicts, into the third quarter and throughout 2023. there could be factory gate inflation scenario and china that potentially could lead into cpi inflation. shery: that could be painful not only for households but also businesses. what does this mean for the broader economy? stephen: the broader economy is seeing tons of stimulus. the priorities of the government is to stimulate growth. so you are going to see that kind of stimulus whether on the fiscal side, we haven't necessarily seen it on benchmark rates from the pboc, but definitely there's going to be inflationary pressures building up. but right now, we are not going to see it in the december numbers because there is still some hesitancy and property purchases and hesitancy and automobile purchases, big-ticket items that

kriti: one of the calls making waves on wall street today is jeff curry's call when it comes to the oilrice. one of the pillars of his view is back in the great financial crisis, you did see this massive investment from china and that helped pull prices. he is creating a parallel to that package we saw out of china to the reopening today. is that a fair comparison to make? tom: so, it is a striking comparison to make. in substance, there might not be a huge amount of difference. but in terms of process what happened in 2008 and what is happening today is pretty different. 2008 it was a stimulus story. it was the premier saying, we are putting $4 trillion into the economy and that catalyzed a much larger amount in bank lending. this time around if you look at what china's government is saying, not much there. may be a little from the pboc and fiscal policy but the real shift is the shift from an economy which is locked down to an economy which has opened up and all that means for demand. jon: helpful context as always. that was tom orlik and fernando valle. great to get both of your pers

significantly, which gives it the key swivel road swivel rope in opec and goldman sachs commodities. chief jeff curry seems to believe the groups. power is at an all time high of their, you know, roughly 60 years. can you give us an example of the sheer power of this group? i mean, does it go beyond just shaping markets? can it actually shape global politics? i think as strong as opec is today, it's actually been stronger in the past. that was particularly stronger in the 19 seventy's, 1973 of course, saudi arabia, post the oil embargo that led to shop to quadruple oil prices. the iranian revolution led to a significant curtailment and oil that produced recessions. opec is strong and powerful today, but it's actually been even more powerful when more of the world was dependent upon it for its oil reserve. uses. united states today produces much of its own oil is not as dependent as it was back in the 1900 seventy's, the overthrown and murdered long time leader of libya. mo, mark adolphe, he played an outsized role in shaping modern day opec methodology. how would you describe his efforts? i mean, was

goldman sachs and jeff currie saying there is a goldilocks scenario now for the commodity sector on lack of investment and that demand coming through from china. and we look at a couple of individual stories and one of those ties into that call from goldman sachs. rio tinto gaining 0.3%. they had an update in terms of iron production, an increase of or percent in terms of iron ore, and they expect increased demand from copper. renault gaining 0.3%. we are hearing talks from japan that the french ceo will be traveling to the country this weekend to work with nissan for a potential deal and they could have that deal by the end of the month in terms of how they restructure that alliance. lindt was a beat in terms of guidance, gaining 1.1%. they expect sales up 3.8% this year. let's get over to mark cudmore. you are also drilling down all things boj for us. mark: good morning. the boj tomorrow is the massive binary event risk from global markets. the boj has little credibility with traders. they are being challenged at an exceptional degree, and that is why they had to buy almost $100 billio

haidi: looking at the call from jeff curry saying you cannot come up with a more bullish set of circumstancesmmodities. would you agree with that? >> every market has its idiosyncrasies. the combination of the low inventories, with china coming back, and i think the market is under appreciating how quickly we are seeing things move there. we got chinese new year coming shortly now are as well. the latter part of q1 will be quite strong, but more broadly, this energy transition is creating a huge swell of demand for key commodities. the industry really isn't set up to meet those in the shorter term. so i think it's really an explosive sort of scenario now. haidi: is there more downside for crude when you consider the risk of recession globally? >> clearly, china reopening -- crude oil itself tracks that general economic growth pulsed closely as opposed to some of the others, where you can get certain sectors really boosting demand. that developed market outlook can certainly weigh on things. even then, we look at markets like japan, south korea, and even the u.s., the prospects of a shallow re

dani: jeff curry predicting copper will reach $11,500 a ton by the end of 2023. at $9,000 now and it has been at a tear over the past couple of sessions, empowered past that number of $10,000 on the lme yesterday. slightly weaker this morning and it all follows a sharp rise to its highest level in seven months. also seeing an uptick on hopes for demand surge in china. joining us now to discuss this is our industrial commodities reporter, martin ritchie, in shanghai. so much positivity around oil and metals. do we just chalk this up to all of china? martin: that is a very big part of it. as he said, a lot of excitement in copper over the past few days with prices bursting through $9,000 a ton. china is driving a lot of this because you have this faster than expected reopening of the economy after the covid curbs. you have expectations across the board for a pivot in the economy, the kind of thing that copper likes with manufacturing in the bottle. you have that property recovering at once, and oil prices tick higher. there is that bullish forecast from goldman at

set-up for commodities could be the best since the start of the supercycle in 2020 goldman cease jeff curry now down mor

and i firmly believe y'all bring on people like jeff curry, i'm firmly in their camps.ming back strong 2023 once we see demand pick up a couple million of barrels a tay by the end of '23, there is no supply left. the u.s. shell model has changed. abs and saudi arabia, as mentioned, they have little supply left, along with the uae. this is the first cycle in 45 years i see very little supply left in the world, and once demand picks up a couple million barrels a day, things are going to get very, very tight. >> why are we at $75 >> a combination of what happened in china with zero-covid policy, scr, we're down inventories in the u.s. with all the releases by the biden administration and then we have the recession discussion so it's a combination of all three weighing on oil prices it really should not be there. >> there's this pretty -- whenever somebody says that's an easy thought, i think to myself, uh-oh, maybe we shouldn't be thinking it. when we have to refill the 234 or whatever million barrels to the spr, natural demand, there you go but others say no, because of s

jonathan: i'm sure you have read already but for our audience that may not have seen this, jeff curryesentation. you cannot come up with the more bullish concoction for commodities, lack of supplies apparent in every single market you look at whether it is critical operating levels or production capacity exhausted. i think there has been pushback. lack of supplies apparent in every single market you look at. is that true with crude? >> i don't think it is. i mean i think we've got -- there is certainly production in the opec crunchies. saudi arabia has spurred capacity. that united emirates has spared production capacity. it started to successfully increase its production in december, getting to grips with some of the issues that have kept a proportion of its supply off the market. so there is, a degree of spare capacity there. what i think is concerning people about oil supply in 2023 is what's going to happen to russia, how big a hit is there going to be too russian production from sanctions? there hasn't been much of one so far but i noticed that opec is forecasting that production

jeff curry had a better reopening play and he said it's crude.came up with a monster number four copper. 11,000, 500. 500. tom: i did not know how to get lme quotes. jonathan: i think tom: whatever but the screen for dummies like me is lme which is important. we are not deemphasizing commodities right now are youamh joins us with the resident in mexico city. she joins us from her studio in washington. how antiquated is the faa and can they improve the budget given the budget frugality of a group of republicans? annmarie: i was able to get home and i did suffer a little bit of the delay but my photographer is still stuck at a hotel close to the mexican city airport. he was delayed because there was chaos with the faa. it didn't just affect domestic flights, there was effects for international flights as well in april, the fai test the faa said they were going to begin receiving and using $1 million of the five billion dollars allocated them from the heart infrastructure plan. many people have criticized the transportation industry in general sayin

jeff curry of goldman sachs taught micro at chicago which is the height of economic acuity.finding ambiguities in the debate and that is what she is addressing with the garbage phrase "soft landing". it drives the nuts. there are ambiguities out there we do not know and people like brainard cannot get there until we see the numbers. jonathan: a soft landing is just saying can we get inflation down without having too much unemployment. right now, unemployment is at 3.5%. tom: we have to get to our guest but my problem is this soft landing does not describe the socioeconomic structure of two thirds of america. two thirds of america in some firm -- performance flat on their back right now including 10,000 plus people at google. you are not having a soft landing because there is a group of people including tom pharaoh and -- jon ferro and tom keene who are living it large. jonathan: dr. l arian -- el_erian. tom: i can see a cambridge that they turn into wednesday this weekend and i will do the same thing. jonathan: i don't know if i'm going to watch that. readjust also overt in.