neil: jeremy siegel criticized the federal reserve and overdoing the rate hikes. a very smart man. and very interesting, compelling on tv. where was he when the fed was printing all the money? charles: he was against it, long track record, the fed over dozen on both ends. could be more receptive and kind. and understanding. charles: that is why i'm not on that rocket. charles: some people praying for that. neil: you are the best. hillary vaughan, when it comes to chasing people, doesn't matter, the best at that and trying to follow the capacity of developments, leave it to hilary to say how much does this cost? it is out of control. it is a record. shouldn't shock us but a big record. >> a big record, to the midterm election on track to make history, for the historically huge amount of money on political ads. the group impact indicates $6.4 billion spent this cycle already blowing past what was spent in 2018-2020 elections, in the midterm cycle could hit $9.7 billion which would make it the most expensive nib midterm election ever lose the supercharged spending si

if they remain as hawkish as they are -- >> no one's does >> if they continue to do what jeremy siegel says they shouldn't, margins are going to continue to get hit. earnings are going to be worst than you think your forecast for stocks can't possibly work in this environment, and by the way you're not the only one because after the break we're going to bring in brian bellski much like you, you've budged a little bit recently because you're starting to see the writing on the wall of what this hawkish and aggressive fed means. >> yeah, look, allow me to make a joke it's not like i suck on nitrous oxide before coming on the show. there is a level in which the feds funds rate can rise in which the thesis of a soft landing breaks down. right now with where the fed funds rate is there is enough cushion in this economy to deal with it and absorb with it and get to the soft landing. we still know there's a lot more job openings than employed and the labor market remains strong. yes, i know that incentivizes the fed to keep going. my point is if inflation comes down as measured or indicated wi

professor jeremy siegel. thank you very much. >> thank you for having me. neil: maybe what he outlined why we're speeding up our selloff right now. the dow down 168 points. something else to worry about, i know i'm hitting you with a lot, we might have a government shutdown. you probably heard this before but this one almost looks like a guarranty. i will explain why after this. ♪. (vo) while you may not be running an architectural firm, tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you help others. so you can live your life. that's life well planned. another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the

i interviewed professor jeremy siegel yesterday in "overtime. his view matches up with some of the more sunny outlooks for the remainder of this year in large part because of what he thinks the fed is going to do and, frankly, what it isn't here's jeremy siegel >> i think they should do another 100 basis points by the end of the year. the market expects a bit more, but that does fulfill a good tightening i don't think they need to go higher than that scaring the market saying we're going to stay high through 2023 when they have no idea what's happening in 2023 was really not a good image to project. >> all right so that's professor jeremy siegel jim, he's largely in your camp so i said to him if that is the result and you're right and it's 100 basis points more and that's it, what does that mean for stocks he said something to the effect of overwhelmingly good now, yes, the flip side of that is what ubs is talking about today, even as they maintain their own view of 100 basis points for the remainder of the year of the further volatility caused

what they heard this week was certainly decidedly so as you just heard the professor jeremy siegel of the wharton school back with us and as i said we had questions from our investment committee member steve, go ahead. >> well, first of all, professor, yeah, i feel like a buddhist monk with the fire you're coming out today. secondly, i want to apologize lastly when you had inflation was going to be enduring and i took issue with that you were 100% right however, what you describe i'm not sure if you're calling for it but i'm not seeing if you're seeing one out there but isn't that an even greater risk to the market because you can't turn around that economic damage from tightening too fast too soon immediately it's still got to filter through the economy so that would make me even more bearish if you're right in your presumption that you're just doing way too much >> well, i think saying we're going to stay at 4.5% fed funds when prices on the ground are actually falling, that's a huge what we call real rate hike, one of the biggest we've had in history, and we've got to clamp down on

that's professor jeremy siegel at the wharton school. my thanks to steve liesman as well lucky to have you with us today. >>> straight ahead tech is among the biggest decliners in today's sell-off as you know the question now, should you own it here? should you buy the dip that's a legitimate question we'll discuss that we're back in two minutes. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. ™ >>> all right, we're back at huntington beach, california, today the future proof conference joining the conversation now to talk about technology stocks, which are tanking today. yields are up afte

we talk to jeremy siegel when "squawk box" comes right back. >> announcer: your money, your future isred by fidelity inn pve investments. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. she was supposed to be the one. i used to believe in the one. and then i realized, there's plenty of savings in the sea. what? amazon has daily deals, so every day is a chance to meet the deal that catches your eye, that shakes your soul, that changes your destiny. i'm gonna go check on those tater tots. learn all the ways to save with amazon. ♪♪ i don't accept this. i can't do this anymore. impossible odds, save the world. i'm done. what do you have for me? a new way to transform our agency. strategy to execution. oh, looks my laces have come undone. a business card? yes, for ey. tech expertise? $2.5 billion invested. impressive. okay, you've convinced me, i'm back. just gonna... get this... >>> good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. fu futures are all green. 150 up from the do

among our special guests, veteran market watcher jeremy siegel and mohamed el-erin and dan niles.morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm melissa lee. along with joe kerna this morning. let's get a check on how we are seat to open this monday session after a friday decline declines across the board but we're off the premarket session lows s&p looking to lose 21 and dow by 140 and the nasdaq off about 55 right at 9:30 a.m. eastern time ye yields have been a major force 4.291% but the currency markets, wow, what moves we have seen in currency across the board. >> because they're slow over there. >> what do you mean they're slow. >> at doing what they need to do what do they expect. the dollar is going to get stronger unless you catch up and do what needs to be done and they have a problem with all their systems. >> who is they >> europe and the u.k. >> we're seeing the yuan at lows and we've see the yen -- >> it is almost like 2.2%. >> and then we have caught between the boe and inflation and what the new administration is doing over there. so it is a quagmire. if you w

powell doesn't want anything with pressure on him, we put on the likes of your guest yesterday, jeremy siegels he knows his back is against the wall. the fed would lose all credibility in anything, who knows what could happen particularly if inflation makes a comeback and even if it is off its highs, the fed would be decimated from reputation standpoint so chances are we will get two more rate hikes, 4%, chances are the market will correct the spike s, momentary blips. there are good headlines, looks like monetary policy is being coordinated with us, that is a positive thing, raising rates in the uk, the currency game, that is positive for the economy and markets like that and coordinated efforts. chad talked about we are not going to have a government shutdown. you get two positive news headlines, the algorithms kick in and it is a by but it is long-term. this is going to correct and it is problematic. it gets into what i report next. the biden administration knows the economy, i don't know if they care about it but may see it as an opportunity to expand the size of government but clearly th

i kind of fall into the jeremy siegel camp. may, simply what i think is going on is the analogy that i make of a snake, i have been in finance for 50 years professionally so on wall street i've seen a lot of snakes, i know snakes pretty well. snakes when they eat the rabbit get that big bulge and if you ever see, i've seen these in the wild, they get sluggish and what we have now, all the things about covid, the supply chain issues as well as monetary and fiscal stupid stuff the government did and then throw on top of the ukraine war and now getting sluggish digestive mode but there are a lot of things that say that the economy is going on more sluggishly with persistent inflation and i don't think the fed knows how to bring down inflation the way they used to. neil: if all these rate hikes are not doing the trick a lot of evidence that a lot of companies are making adjustments, paying off people not to the greedy you would think so far or the 70s experienced. that is a matter of time, typically the view i get, overwhelmingly b

if inflation isn't tamed, you've got a huge long-term problem >> you referenced jeremy siegel earlier. he's saying that inflation is collapsing and the fed being behind the curve and rents are going to come down and cpi is going to crash where i part company with jim is that i do not think that inflation is entrenched. i think it's transitory in the loosest sense of the word being not permanent and we're seeing inflation roll back and the fed has probably done enough to ensure that we're going to see a weaker economy, less inflation the wage question really is around population and labor force growth, not around an overheating economy. i think there's so many moving parts that interest rate policy is not the cure all for some parts of these inflation questions, like wage inflation, but the fed has already done enough to tame goods and services inflation going forward. if they keep going, they will break something. >> all right ron, thank you very much have a great weekend >> you too, thank you. >> good to see you >>> the dow currently down 725 points further ahead between the growing

we have jeremy siegel of the wharton business school, karl he is wrong now.ould not outvolcker, paul volcker. wall street is unusually alarmed by rapid unusual moves in the bond market. what do you think. >> i'm with the congressman. go back to where this came from. inflation is the result of too much money chasing too few goods. what did this administration do? added nearly five trillion dollars of demand through additional spending starting with the american rescue plan and most recently ending with the student loan bailout and so we got five trillion dollars more in demand and today they had a white house meeting. some of the senior officials in the government to discuss this, he said we'll have plans to save families money and lower costs. what did they say? we'll have airlines required to disclose the extra fees in advance so when you book a ticket you know how much you're charged for your baggage. really, that will offset a lot i bet of the five trillion dollars in additional demand. strikes me we have both the fed and the administration off on the wron

eastern, the professor, jeremy siegel, with us on what lies ahead for stocks in your money we have somes coming, too, you're not going to want to miss lululemon reporting in "overtime" and broadcom where the chips space is under fire of late this is going to be the most recent read for all of you on the back of what's been a real flurry of negative news around that space so we'll see what they deliver i'll see all of you, i hope,a few hours' time. some final trades and you have a little bit of time to give me more reasoning on why you like what you do. keri >> i pick cme group. cme benefits from volatility they run the biggest exchange for derivatives and, of course being commodities. and they will have higher earnings than expected if this continues for the rest of the year, earnings estimates have been increasing and so we think that it's a stock that over the next couple of quarters will outperform and it hasn't been a good performer this year it's down year to date that's my pick today. >> good stuff. thank you for that jason snipe? >> yes, i like abbvie here i think it's important

too much and i know that you whether it was secondhand or live saw the conversation i had with jeremy siegelm the wharton school and he suggested they're doing way too much, because i think he may have tweeted about it. where do you come down on that debate have they gone too far >> so what we've told clients is the following. the long run potential growth output of the u.s. economy most people think is somewhere around 2%, give or take, plus or minus. and if you want to use inflationary expectations or whatever, most inflation expectations are anchored between 2 and 3% long-term it tells you that nominally the gdp growth rate in the u.s. is somewhere around 4%, maybe a little bit more, long-term, plus or minus the problem i have with all of this is that by taking rates to 4%, we seem to be running the risk of breaking the economy and that scares me because that tells me the equity risk premium should be really, really high. if nominal interest rates equal nominal gdp equals blow ups in the economy, recession, you know, whatever, the equity risk premium needs to be higher because we just hav

jeremy siegel said last week, according to andy bener, at a -- he had a lunch with some people who wentis the third worst fed in history and he reminded people he was speaking to that september of last year, of the 16 fed governors predicted where rates would be at the end of this year, eight of them thought there wo would be no rate incree at all in 2022. eight of them. so half of the fed governors. that's how moronic these people are. they're supposed to be the smarted people in the country but this is absurd, the level of iidiocy among the fed governors. maria: have you to put it in context. jay powell wanted to get reappointed. he had lael brainard nipping at his heels, pushed forward by alexandria ocasio-cortez and the progressives. he was afraid he would get the job. he flooded the system with stimulus and called it transitory. this is where we are. dagen: this wasn't just powell. this was eight of the 16 fed governors. maria: yeah. i can assure you robert kaplan wasn't on the list. he was a dissenter. and there were plenty of the list that said i'm a dissenter. thomas hoenig was

. >> it's really quite amazing how things have happened did you happen to kcatch jeremy siegel 19 last hour? he was channeling kjim cramer o rick santelli in his -- basically, an attack on the fed. >> the this idea that the fed is not paying attention to what's going on in the economy. you know it's out there. the trouble for the fed is it has its credibility on the line. i have a lot of sympathy for what jeremy said we have barry stern llick on. the trouble is, it's got to show up in the numbers and it's got to show up in the consumer prize index. i don't think the fed. i can take into account what it's hearing from ceos, but it's got to be driven by the data and unfortunately, it's a bit of maybe an unvoidable accident in the sense that the data will be late we'll see -- you remember, tyler, i offered chair powell the opportunity to say that it's possible that they would pause, and he said, yeah, maybe, but now is not the time. they still have a lot of work to do i think, tyler bhmaybe, at a 4% range, they might be able to pause and look around before heading to 4.6, but if they do n

and the fed's policy decisions more broadly is drawing the ire of wharton professor of finance jeremy siegel here is what he said on "the halftime report" today >> the fed has just, you know, the last two years one of the biggest policy mistakes in the 110-year history of the fed by staying so easy when everything was booming and pointing to, my god, inflation will be a terrible problem and now, oh, yeah, we did goof badly there. never really admitted. i mean, still blames some things on ukraine and, you know, putin and the supply side even though oil is way below that level. i think the fed is way too tight. they're making exactly the same mistake on the other side that they made a year ago >> joining us now is former kansas city fed president thomas hoenig it's great to have you to weigh in on this would you agree that it represents an error by the fed in regard to inflation and i guess does it matter how we got here in terms of what they have to do now? >> it's a fair point the fed was behind the curve they should have been at least removing a lot of that accommodation starting in 2021 at

this is why jeremy siegel is famous, for that contribution to financial history.vestment books of all time it's on my shelf should be on yours, too. carl, back to you. >> bob, fantastic. bob pisani. >> it's one of my favorite books, absolutely. 6%, i think, is right. chi chipotle, this morning baird has a piece talking about whether this new garlic steak limited offer is going to impact numbers. but then pulls back and says, stop trying to judge this company on the limited offers and just accept the fact that this is still the premiere i agree with that. this is the premiere quick serve restaurant to go to. and i stand by the idea, as does this analyst, that this is an opportunity to buy a company like this in a difficult environment. >> you've long said it's all about through-put. >> they know how to do it and they know how to manage their finances with brian nichols, a genius, and jack hartung is fantastic. i'm standing by my long-standing thinking, and i just want to buy companies that are good. you like that? >> that's smart. >> buy companies that are good no,

that takes a long time to work through, anywhere from 12 months to maybe 18 months i think jeremy siegelt long for housing prices or shelter costs to come down, it means that the inflation numbers are going to be high for a long time. i think the bigger question is, what do you do with wage inflation? that's where things get a little scary. people have pretty good ammo to go before the boss right now and say you've got to pay me more money because costs are so high. how do you see that playing out? even if they were to do 125 basis point, that's not going to deal with that. >> becky, we are in a wage fight already. you can point to the latest inflation number and you will make a lot of sense when you're asking for a wage increase that is going to push up prices. the only way in which that is going to be avoided is the fact the chairman and his colleagues have to be really tough. so i have, again, a history lesson for general powell if he would only listen and that is that having allowed inflation to go to this extent, he simply does not have the luxury of going very gradual in terms of i

pce prices very closely and they're due out in just a half hour we'll dissect the data and ask jeremy siegelright now ♪ ♪ >> i'm not doing that anymore. it is back up a little and we went from up 200 all of the way down to negative we have an inflation number coming out in a half hour and all bets are off welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square i was referencing earlier, i made a commitment to no longer base my projections on what i want to happen is what really might happen because we all -- i'm guess joe kernen with becky quist and andrew ross sorkin the market going up in 2022, you're okay, but if it did depend on that you're probably not in a very good mood as october approaches the equity futures this morning. we had been up, and we are now up 50 on the dow nike has been a drag all morning long, and when we were up 200. there are some other -- not down, but it's up -- it's not up as much as it was and you can see the nasdaq which was problematic yesterday also up. >> oh, yeah. that's what we saw since that nice reflect rally we had in july an