to be fair. to jerome powell and his team tojerome powell and his team they were under pressure to cut a while. the? back for quite a while. they are sunposed _ back for quite a while. they are supposed to _ back for quite a while. they are supposed to be - back for quite a while. they are supposed to be free - back for quite a while. they are supposed to be free ofl are supposed to be free of political pressure, whether thatis political pressure, whether that is true or not, you know, i think there was a lot of cherry picking of the us data the softness, and it is really not there when you look at the larger picture. i think we should not pursue with rate cuts until we see what progress we make in the months ahead. doctor sean snakes, thank you. donald trump's tariff policies are likely to have a significant impact on asia. in his previous term the picture wasn't entirely bleak — with some countries benefitting from us—china tensions. but the stakes are higher this time as the president—elect has promised a 20% tax on all us imports. katie silver takes a look at how businesses in the

think that jerome powell could come. out in five minutes and say, we. >> hear you loud and. >> clear, mr. president. we're lowering. >> rates by 50 basis points. >> and ten. >> year yields are still going to. >> go higher. >> and that's not. >> necessarily a good thing. >> yeah. in terms of his fight against inflation though it would be great to go to the american people and say your mortgage rates are coming down. right. the thing your. >> mortgage rate or not are. not tied to the. >> the front. right, right. no, i know and so my point is that he's trying to jawbone a part of the curve that he has no control over that we've actually seen go higher despite what the fed has done. so jerome powell. >> is not. >> the audience. is that what you're saying. no. >> yes. i'm not joking. >> yes i think exactly what you're saying. >> right. it's the consumer he wants to be able to say like we i am. trying to i'm demanding that your mortgage rates are going to come down. your credit card rates are going to come down. your borrowing

i don't think they can enforce jerome powell to do anything he doesn't see as warranted. >> i don't wantsay all of this is. it's a tantrum to make sure that the fed doesn't cut on make sure that the fed -- huh? tell me again. >> it's an emotional reaction and it's also a tactical move by traders. i mean, there are two types of investors -- there are many types of investors, but the two types of investors, basically you have traders that tend to be leveraged and the leverage -- the cost of leverage has gone up significantly since march 2022 even with the three rate cuts that we had earlier this year, and then you have enter media to long-term investors. for one thing where the ten-year is now, consider the fact what it really needs and we're at levels on interest rates where bond issuers, whether it's the u.s. government, municipalities, corporate entities or others effectively are paying for the privilege of borrowing money again at a fairly normalized rate. >> john. to kelly's question, and open up the interview, hi, by the way. thanks for coming on. what happened? borrowing costs for t

and trump, of course, was the one with nominated fed chair jerome powell in the first place.ob. he's the one who let inflation go up to over 9% when biden was president, and it's just been kind of a herky-jerky monetary policy. so the big question is will donald trump replace jerome powell before his term is up in 14 months or so. i don't know the answer to that. he's been jawboning the chairman to get out. he'd like to replace him. i think -- i'm going to to make a prediction if though, i think he's going to let powell serve his term and then replace him early in 2026 which i think had be the best outcome. mike: all right. we will follow that. president trump's also putting the world on notice as it relates to tariffs. let's play that. >> right. >> my message to every business in the world is very simple, come make your product in america, and we will give you among the lowest taxes of any nation on earth. but if you don't make your product in america, which is your prerogative, then very simply you will have obey a tariff -- to pay a tariff. mike: i realize a lot of tariff

calls for borrowing costs to be swiftly lowered, claiming he knows more about interest rates than jerome powell. >> i'll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. interest rates should follow us all over. the progress that you're seeing is happening because of our historic victory in a recent presidential election. >> the bank of japan lifts rates to their highest level since 2008, and signals further hikes are in play. good morning everyone and happy friday. we start today's show looking at the latest pmi figures for the eurozone. let me share those with you. the composite flash pmi figure for the eurozone came in at 50.2 for the month of june. that's actually higher than what analysts were expecting going into the release today. and let's break it down between services and manufacturing, starting with services. the reading has come in at 51.4. that was just marginally lower in terms of what economists had priced in. but indeed, it is still a positive reading above that 50 threshold. when you think about manufacturing. however, we kn

[applause] >> federal reserve chair jerome powell will hold a news conference to discuss interest ratesand monetary policy, meeting with federal open market committee. you can watch live at 2:30 eastern on c-span, our free mobile apps or online, c-span.org. democracy. it isn't just an idea. it is a process shaped by leaders elected to the highest office and entrusted with a select few regarding basic principles, where decisions are made in the nation's courts is charted. democracy in real time. this is your government at work, this is c-span giving you your democracy unfiltered. house speaker mike johnson signed the laken rightly asked, after a student murdered by an illegal immigrant. immigrants accused of major to minor crimes, 46 democrats joined all republicans voting in favor 263-one hundred 56, it also passed in the senate 64 to 45 of 12 democrats voting with all republicans. it is expected to be the first bill signed into law by donald trump in his new term.

the federal reserve chair, republican jerome powell, who was first appointed by donald trump and thenoesn't sound afraid of donald trump. >> if he asked you to leave, would you go? >> no. >> do you think that legally. you're not required to leave? >> no. >> do you believe the president has the power to fire or demote you? and has the fed determine the legality of a president demoting at will any of the other governors with leadership positions. >> not permitted under the law? >> and so. >> donald trump. who likes to flaunt his power, didn't realize that he was flaunting his powerless ness with jerome powell today. the lie donald trump told to the world economic forum today is a lie he has told just about every day of his political career. it's one thing to tell a lie to people who don't know it's a lie. like trump supporters at a trump rally. it's another thing. it is indeed pathological to tell a lie directly to people who all know it's a lie. you're going to recognize this lie when you hear it. you've heard it before. here's today's version. >> if you don't make your product in amer

unfortunately the fed has been during the fact that inflation has turned up sent june arguably an answer jerome powellinflation forecast have fallen apart and i really worry that we can end up with potential hikes at the end of this year unless we get a lot of fact cut out of the government which is obviously a hard thing to do. maria: we will be watching that, great conversation we appreciate your time, we will be watching. dan niles joining us. rebuilding california devastating wildfires adding to the already dire housing crisis in the state admired by costly regulation and the lack of insurance. this yoga national association of my parents worked hard for everything we had. ♪ they taught me the value of a dollar, and how to use it wisely. ♪ those lessons are forever, and today i share them with all our employees. it's why i team up with vanguard for our company's 401k plan, because everyone deserves to have someone look out for their financial well-being. ♪ vanguard. fifty years of helping investors be well on their way. (traffic noises) (♪) the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. (♪

indicates there could be a showdown between president trump and the chair of the federal reserve jerome powellled slower interest rate cuts with some concerned about the impact of trump policies like tariffs and what it could have on inflation. in the same speech, trump said he would ask saudi arabia and the other opec nations to lower oil prices, and he suggested that the elevated oil price was helping vladimir putin in his war in ukraine. and he said that, quote, bringing down the oil price will end that war. now, on to crypto. president trump signed an executive order that would create a working group to advise the white house on regulation in particular. it will include the creation of a national crypto currency stockpile as promised during his campaign. it will include the treasury, sec and other federal agencies, and they will have to submit to president trump their report and findings in six months. >> thank you. >>> still to come, the all-stars are coming out for the super bowl halftime show. >>> and cinephiles. . >>> and cinephiles. for chest cn only mask the symptoms. hey... how you

unfortunately the fed has been during the fact that inflation has turned up sent june arguably an answer jerome powell has said our inflation forecast have fallen apart and i really worry that we can end up with potential hikes at the end of this year unless we get a lot of fact cut out of the government which is obviously a hard thing to do. maria: we will be watching that, great conversation we appreciate your time, we will be watching. dan niles joining us. rebuilding california devastating wildfires adding to the already dire housing crisis in the state admired by costly regulation and the lack of insurance. this yoga national association of we've always been competitive. ♪ yeah...one of us always had to be first. - first! - first! [kids bickering] [kids bickering] hold on, guys! ♪ first! today, we're first together. we love you, mom and dad. thank you so much for making it possible. and now you can finally put yourselves first. vanguard. fifty years of helping you invest for all of life's firsts. ♪ check in time is 3:00 it's 2:55. i know. is this what he's doing now? as your host, i have some rul

[captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2025] on wednesday federal reserve chair jerome powell monetary policy will affect federal. watch live eastern on c-span, c-span now free mobile app or online at c-span.org. live pictures this january morning for the u.s. senate will gambling shortly. lawmakers are expected to vote to confirm president trump somebody for treasury secretary, scott. later this evening, the chamber will vote to limit debate on president trump somebody transportation secretary, john b. live to the floor of the u.s. senate here on c-span2. ... the president pro tempore: the senate will come to order. the chaplain, dr. black, will open the se

unfortunately the fed has been during the fact that inflation has turned up sent june arguably an answer jerome powellas said our inflation forecast have fallen apart and i really worry that we can end up with potential hikes at the end of this year unless we get a lot of fact cut out of the government which is obviously a hard thing to do. maria: we will be watching that, great conversation we appreciate your time, we will be watching. dan niles joining us. rebuilding california devastating wildfires adding to the already dire housing crisis in the state admired by costly regulation and the lack of insurance. this yoga national association of sofi is helping me get my money right to achieve my ambitions. like a saving for a better swing. loosen that grip. with sofi, i earn more money on my money and pay no account fees. plus i'm investing in my game. sofi can help fund all your ambitions. (♪) no matter how ambitious. bank with sofi to score a higher apy and an epic welcome bonus. sofi. get your money right. (luke) alright, let's settle down, everybody. now that we have a completely new homes-dot-com

unfortunately the fed has been during the fact that inflation has turned up sent june arguably an answer jerome powell said our inflation forecast have fallen apart and i really worry that we can end up with potential hikes at the end of this year unless we get a lot of fact cut out of the government which is obviously a hard thing to do. maria: we will be watching that, great conversation we appreciate your time, we will be watching. dan niles joining us. rebuilding california devastating wildfires adding to the already dire housing crisis in the state admired by costly regulation and the lack of insurance. this yoga national association of homebuilders here on the challenges and that the facing in the long road to recovery. stay with us. (traffic noises) (♪) the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. (♪) at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts. because we believe the more ways we all have to move forward. the further we'll all go. after careful review of medical guidance and research on pain relief, my recommendation is simple: ev

unfortunately the fed has been during the fact that inflation has turned up sent june arguably an answer jerome powelltion forecast have fallen apart and i really worry that we can end up with potential hikes at the end of this year unless we get a lot of fact cut out of the government which is obviously a hard thing to do. maria: we will be watching that, great conversation we appreciate your time, we will be watching. dan niles joining us. rebuilding california devastating wildfires adding to the already dire housing crisis in the state admired by costly regulation and the lack of insurance. this yoga national association of [sofi mnemonic] can a personal loan unlock your ambitions? oh yeah. borrow up to a hundred thousand dollars to consolidate bad debt and save money for your next goal. take a swing at your kitchen reno... meant that literally. or design your actual dream wedding. consolidate bad debt and fund all your ambitions with a sofi personal loan. go to sofi.com to view your rate. sofi. get your money right. (traffic noises) (♪) the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. (♪) at

jerome powell. he has got, he's got power.ith the inflation that he doesn't want to arrest them lowballed the actual inflation rate that is an input cost and everything in government. how much were going to get increase in social security. and until he comes to bear and gets inflation and the purchasing power of the dollar the value of the dollar at zero, we do not, 2% target, this was dreamed up i guess 15 jessica which allowed them to go ahead and just print more money. the only way we're going to arrest inflation is we have got to stop throwing the money around. we are trillions of dollars in debt. the train has left the station. we are on a collision course, cannonball run going down the hill. i don't know, mike johnson i don't know if he's the man to do it. we need the freedom caucus. i like jim jordan. i want a heavy hand. i want to spend to stop. i want jerome powell to be, to go ahead, be more realistic about this inflation and stop lying to the people, gotcha. we will sharpen his comments a little bit. the economy was

cheryl: certainly that political pressure jerome powell has been here before the other story, meetingsor 2025, before you go developments on new years' day nippon steel is trying to acquire u.s. steel reportedly a new proposal to president biden giving of thes government veto power over any potential cuts, to their production capacity. so, you know biden only got until january 7 to make this decision. so, if he doesn't take action at the the merger gets approved. >> a merger automatically gets approved is that what you said. cheryl: it goes through. >> yeah, no. i think. cheryl: can make up -- >> to add color here cannot come to conclusion, on biden's desk before i go ahead. >> i think needs to make a decision whether or not can make a decision, that is a whole nother question about whether this goes through one way or the other anxiety about a japanese company owning this big u.s. steel producer, on is it right thing should it happen should we allow it to happen not allow it to happen, i hope that he says something before the 7th of january at least guardrails around it. >> great to s

it's also if you think about the backgrounds of a lot of the members, particularly jerome powell. if paul voker is your hero, you're probably always going to lean a little hawkish when it's a little uncertain. i think the cost of waiting, as opposed to the cost of cutting and then being wrong, is probably a lot lower. >> julie, i think, is everybody's hero today. because she's doing a show out there in southern california, having to be evacuated from her home. obviously we wish her and everybody the best. but the fact that she's doing the show tonight is testament to her. so my hero for the next 43 minutes. >> after that, who knows? >> after that, who knows? >>> and a quick programming note here. be sure to tune in to mad money tonight. jim is chatting with ceos of merck, cardinal health and regeneron. >>> coming up, boeing deliveries. the drop in those numbers with the widening rivals. >>> plus, the quantum leap. the group bouncing back to start the new year. will the energy continue for these new names. or is the computing revolution still change? when "fast money" returns. >> t

the reason being is that the federal reserve remains under jerome powell and it needs chairman powellory reform. going forward you will see additional reviews and may be tinkering to the stress capital buffer but i know that capital levels -- i do not think capital levels will change very much because deregulation is not a magical want. you need the off troll -- the calm -- the office of the comptroller and the fed to go along. if you are banking on the regulatory aspects hitting the bottom line you are looking at 2027 at the earliest because 2025 and 2026 they will be looking -- working on it. scarlet: if basal 3 will be delayed or eliminated, how will that be a boost to the industry because it was never implemented? nathan: if it is implemented it will be in a way that is capital neutral, and the banks will tell the regulators keep us at a level playing field with european counterparts. going forward, if it is delayed, then you will get questions of what the capital regime looks like because remember, basal 4 has already been implemented in europe. so if they begin questioning their

“music playing” liz: fox business alert tomorrow the first meeting of the year jerome powell and companyhe january interest-rate move, let's be clear the committee is expected to leave rates unchanged fed's fund show a 97% odds of no cut but powell is likely to face questions at his press conference on president trump's pointed demand last week that the fed cut rates again. i would begin independent institute senior fellow judy shelton during president trump's first term she was one of the pick to serve on the federal order of directors, welcome back to the showed you agree the interest-rate should drop immediately? >> i think even putting it that way shows the wrong emphasis. he preceded that statement by saying with oil prices coming down that was as big untrue stipulation. he was saying this is entirely consistent intellectually with the fed's own model the whole idea of high interest rates is to fight inflation. energy is a huge component of inflation so it president trump's efforts to increase the supply of energy brings down the price of energy that brings down inflation, the fed s

mike: president trump is also leaning on fed chairman jerome powell to bring down interest rates.ook, i think that's significant, but i think the fiscal policy that that you'll see is going to be even more significant coming forward. it's already the directives that trump, president trump has signed that a you're going to see the changes. we've had a lot of monotower policy -- monetary policy, but the fiscal policy that he sets is going to make the changes it's, you know, energy, whether it's involvement in a.i., whether it's involvement in bitcoin. a lot of those are fiscal policies that that will help the economy a lot. mike: let me pick up on a point you just made. the president's vowing make the u.s. the capital of crypto. how big is that? >> i think that's a huge, huge, huge, positive thing for this country, for us to lead in something that's here. it's not going anywhere. look, mike, crypto, especially bitcoin, has been the best performing asset in the last ten years. now, it's volatile and nobody can, you know, deny that, but it's been a great performer. and we're very much

that is seen and i believe that was the first shot at jerome powell. >> that was his first shot. he will have more shots at mr. powell over the course of the next several months, no question. the president has very little control over the overnight fed funds rate, very little control over the back end of the curve and at this point inflation is a paramount circumstance to be disturbed about. commodity prices are going from the lower left to the upper right. gold prices are making new all-time highs. crude oil prices have been stronger than i had thought likely and likely to remain strong despite the drill, baby, drill, so the fact that the president's going to be pushing on the overnight -- pushing the fed to cut rates i think is an ill advised move on his part. better for him to be silent and let the fed do its job. cheryl: well, let's take a look at crypto prices because they've been moving higher after president trump's executive order which aims to make the u.s. the crypto capital of the world by potentially developing a national stockpile. fox business' edward lawrence spoke

guest: he has a decision coming up with jerome powell. the federal reserve is supposed to be independent and a lot of people say it is too unaccountable. but the federal reserve board and who the president appoints is enormously important. we know this from jenny carter's -- jimmy carter's presidency. jimmy voelker shame -- tamed inflation under reagan's first term when interest rates were allowed to beat inflation because inflation as joe biden and kamala harris would relate is an incumbent killer. when voelker did this itunemploo 10%. interest rates were somewhere around 17% in reagan's first term. once inflation was defeated, interest rates came down and the business cycle recovered in time for the reelection campaign. jimmy carter did not have that good luck. as far as jerome powell has handled the federal reserve, i'm not an expert. he has gotten mixed reviews from people who know more about this than i do. whether or not the fed acted soon enough to tame inflation, that debate will continue. monetary policy was too accommodating for

measures of inflation have turned higher and you see fed acknowledge that on december 18th when jerome powellour nation forecast have kind of fallen apart s&p went down 3% bond yields surged, so i think if you do have an issue with inflation reigniting the fed pausing having to -- think a good 50% chance potentially happening you can see market multiples contract 30 to 40% along with stocks. >> i we're in what that means for the fed hawkish pivot fed cut rates for the last time in a couple of months i think, really markets have been uncertain tell us how you want to latino capital in this environment i know one of your top picks is kash. are guaranteed 4% yield money market fund dry powder what you are writing about to clients about number one pick, cash? really? >> yeah. well, you have to remember last time i picked cash in 2022 s&p went down 19% so i think right now, you are getting a very good yield 4%, it does give you dry powder because you have to remember for the overall stock market, if you go back through history look at when inflation was between 2 1/2 to 3%, the trailing multiple o

on the call earlier today, and i've said it, i'm not a fan of the federal reserve, but i think jerome powell, on the margins, has done a really good job signaling what they're going to do. he's made some mistakes, as well, but here we are at the market at e ffectively all-time highs. you sort of look under the -- empire state manufacturing came out today. it was down, like, 12% or somewhere either side of 12%. street was looking for basically flat to slightly higher. there's some things under the surface that should be concerning. and i'll say again, you know, people talk about the strength of the consumer -- yeah, they spend money. consumer, though, if you look at it, the balance sheets are on the wrong end of things. >> i just -- i think the economy and the strength is really exciting. i think there are a lot of pieces of the economy that got used to being funded at zero. and this higher for longer dynamic, i don't think rates need to go down a lot. in, we're all saying they're kind of normalizing. you get to a place where there will be credit issues out there, but in the meantime, i think

25 basis points last month, but revised outlook for 2025 to just two cuts, with the chairman, jerome powell, saying the central bank will be cautious on any future reductions while inflation has been quote, moving sideways. now, to put it all into context, let's discuss all of this with our next guest, head of research. great to have you on the show. >> thanks. >> i would like to first get your thoughts on this latest data that we obtained in the united states. are you also of the camp that the figures are quite concerning in terms of what they mean for potential rate cuts from the fed? >> i think the big challenge you have is we have this friendly macro backdrop in the last two years where you had good growth with inflation falling. with inflation not falling anymore, possibly rising, and i think this new medium we need to find, it's more important for the bond market and the bond market as often is the case, is potentially over shooting. we certainly think so. we think the market is pricing for the first half of next year, for the whole year, and you have to consider that they are still v

the market ignored that until jerome powell said the inflation forecast has fallen apart in the marketisk because the fed is probably on pause, that is my opinion. you might get rate hikes and that environment of trailing 25 times when historically it is about 19 times when cpi is about 2.5% to 3%, that is potentially a problem and bond yields are about 100 basis points lower than they normally are with cpi between 2.5 to three boys -- 23%. that is why worry about a drawdown this year if inflation doesn't fact looked like it is being sticky or moving up. the three -- the fed has to hike. if we thread the needle and inflation doesn't have a problem you can see inflation over 10%. but, that is why it feel like cash is one of my top five investments for starting. the last time i had that was in 2022 when the market went down 19%. we will see what happens. lisa: i was looking at your 2025 top-five tics. below cash you talked about cisco. you talked about the big chinese tech companies. are you concerned about what is going on with chinese hackers. cisco was named as a companies that the ch

jerome powell, everybody in the fed, they're human beings. >> nobody wants to be attacked. >> like refs in a football game. they are probably influenced by the crowd. >> even if you want to. >> pretend they are not. that said, we are learning that the federal reserve may not be in control of borrowing costs anyway. maybe if donald trump wants to yell at somebody, he should yell at the bond market. >> because while the. >> federal reserve is cutting rates, the bond. market is raising rates, right. >> well, i. >> believe i. believe it was president clinton who. >> president clinton who. discovered the. >> power of the bond market. >> and you can yell. >> at the at the bond market, but the bond vigilantes. >> are super powerful. >> and. >> they're. >> going to be. especially powerful. >> if you're if your national debt is going up and there's no plan to lower it. >> julia. >> exactly. so even if you are successful in intimidating the human policymakers into keeping rates lower than they otherwise might, that could have the exact opposite effect on the long end. if it feels if there's a sen

guest: he has a decision coming up with jerome powell.he federal reserve is supposed to be independent and a lot of people say it is too unaccountable. but the federal reserve board and who the president appoints is enormously important. we know this from jenny carter's -- jimmy carter's presidency. jimmy voelker shame -- tamed inflation under reagan's first term when interest rates were allowed to beat inflation because inflation as joe biden and kamala harris would relate is an incumbent killer. when voelker did this itunemploo 10%. interest rates were somewhere around 17% in reagan's first term. once inflation was defeated, interest rates came down and the business cycle recovered in time for the reelection campaign. jimmy carter did not have that good luck. as far as jerome powell has handled the federal reserve, i'm not an expert. he has gotten mixed reviews from people who know more about this than i do. whether or not the fed acted soon enough to tame inflation, that debate will continue. monetary policy was too accommodating for t

. >> with the overturn of the roe and dobbs decision -- >> on wnesday federal reserve chair jerome powelletarpolicy at 2:30 p.m. on c-span, c-span now, our free mobile app or online at c-span.org. >> c-span, democracy unfiltered, funded by these television companies and more, including comcast. >> you think this is just a community center? no, it's way more than that. >> comcast is partnering with a thousand community centers to create wi-fi enabled lift zones so students from low income families can get the tools they need to be ready for anything. >> comcast supports span as a public service along with ese other television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. >> up next we'll hear from industry officials testifying on the u.s. freight network before a house subcommittee. they discuss safety regulations, federal funding, use of artificial intelligence to detect hazards and the supply chain. this is just under three hours.

jerome powell has said that he doesn't see a ton of interest rate cuts on the horizon for the coming ar because he started to see inflation creeping back up. for the colors purposes, powell is probably going to try to keep them as even as they can and probably not cut rates unless something unforeseen happens peer but molly is right, from an economic perspective, these different priorities the republicans are pursuing have the potential to break open inflation again. host: in the 119th congress, hakeem jeffries is expected to remain the minority leader. what do democrats do going forward in response to the congress under republican control shakes out? guest: if you get people in unguarded moments in the minority they will be honest saying that being in the minority is more fun because it comes with the ability to criticize what the majority is doing and with the house having no obligation for running and crafting legislation, especially in a situation like this where the republicans are largely debating among themselves. democrats have a platform right now where they basically can hav

and i know the word coordinate is not something that maybe he has done with the fed chair, jerome powell really, to ensure that market stability and kind of ensure that tariffs as well as signaled clearly in the first 90 days, he has to do that to give the 2025 year for people to see where inflation is going to be, not just with the data, but what his plan is with the fed. >> so let's talk about tariffs because because trump has indicated to his close advisors that he wants to deliver on wide ranging tariffs as soon as he takes office. that could be on china, canada, mexico. and advisors have been working to craft the approach, potentially instituting smaller tariffs that gradually increase if negotiations don't meet the president's demands. that's an option that's gotten some support, but it's still unclear how quickly the team is prepared to put any policy in place. i wonder what you see as far as tariffs and potentially them being used as negotiating tactics, but also what their effects could be on the economy at large, depending on the magnitude of tariffs that are instituted. >> ell

the base of our capital market so i'm very proud of what we did, working with janet yellen and jerome powellrms we put in place to build greater resiliency, lower the risk of our u.s. treasury market, while also promoting more competition. so there's forward momentum, there's still things to be implement it over the next 18 months but i know this, our $28 trillion treasure market is congruent in four years, it is going to grow 25%, so we need these reforms to make sure the markets work smoothly and taxpayers can have the confidence their government can borrow in liquid markets that the international community trust. >> gary, what do you think the biggest risk in the market is today? >> look, i think we have a presidential transition and democracy has spoken but there is policy uncertainty, there always are around these transitions, some of those policies will be sorted out over time but, there's policy uncertainties for sure. i have spoken over these last four years, there's also pockets of capital markets that have a lot of leverage, a lot of borrowing and low margin and that is usually in

thinking several rate cuts at the end of last year and that was fueled by comments from fed chair jerome powellack in september 18 for the federal funds rate was the beginning of several rate cuts. they started to walk it back. everybody expects a long pause. i don't think they will be raising interest rates. i think inflation may be a little sticky, maybe a little hotter at the beginning of the year but we will continue to moderate because of productivity and china is depressed. if we have an inflation problem from tariffs it is a one-off situation and a not -- and not an ongoing inflation problem. put it all together, no, i don't think the fed will be raising rates. jonathan: you coined the phrase bond vigilantes. we talk about that. people wonder if they have returned or we are just pricing in better outlook for the u.s. economy. when we look at two's, kids in line with fed funds. about 40 basis points north of that. that looks fairly normal. is there evidence the bond vigilantes are out in the united states and have made a comeback? ed: you make a good point. it is not completely clear abou

lisa: there is a feeling that there is an opportunity for jerome powell to open the chance for risk thehis year. do you think that would be appropriate given some of the technological transformation and uncertainties? tom: no, it is quite unlikely he will do that. lisa: do you think he should? tom: i do not think he should mostly because the labor market is what matters the most in america. and momentum is still cooling. some could argue stabilizing but it is very hard to argue that the labor market is tightening, in my opinion. so if you look at quits, hires, initial claims as a way for stabilizing and the acceleration itself. until you see a tightening i do not think hikes are necessarily. annmarie: drawbar carrying out -- trump is carrying out deportations which could mean a tighter labor market. tom: the biggest risk is that he reduces supply in his first term. he ran on deportation in the first term and it was about half of that of obama's. using history as a guide, i think there is a big risk but a low probability that mass deportation changes it. annmarie: if we were to see that,

tariffs and so i think you really need to watch that and the market really cares as you saw when jerome powell have, quote, kind of fallen apart and the market dropped 3%. so to your point, becky, that's why i think mid cap is a better place to be than small cap which is why we went with the ijj as one of our top five picks. >> dan niles, another of his top five picks is cash. hasn't done that since 2022. thank you, dan. >> thank you. >>> coming up, former house speaker kevin mccarthy we will talk to him about this new tariff plan we are heading about in the "washington post" this morning. >>> and also this story coming up, what could a disney fubo tv partnership mean for the streaming landscape and the venue sports service that three of the biggest players are trying to launch? rich greenfield will join us in just a moment to talk about this breaking news this morning that could reshape the television landscape. you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. (grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. (man 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million s

. >> with the overturn of the roe and dobbs decision -- >> on wnesday federal reserve chair jerome powell to discuss interest rates and monetarpolicy at 2:30 p.m. on c-span, c-span now, our free mobile app or online at c-span.org. >> c-span, democracy unfiltered, funded by these television companies and more, including comcast. >> you think this is just a community center? no, it's way more than that. >> comcast is partnering with a thousand community centers to create wi-fi enabled lift zones so students from low income families can get the tools they need to be ready for anything. >> comcast supports span as a public service along with ese other television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. >> up next we'll hear from industry officials testifying on the u.s. freight network before a house subcommittee. they discuss safety regulations, federal funding, use of artificial intelligence to detect hazards and the supply chain. this is just under three hours. >> good morning. >> good morning. >> nice to meet you. [indiscernible conversations] >> subcommittee on rails, platfor