louis fed chair jim bullard says he still thinks the economy can avoid a recession. ent bullard says inflation has come in hotter than he would have expected. as a result, the fed would have to raise rate as little bit higher than what he previously said he had estimated that rates would have to go to 3.75% or 4%. we'll have jim on at 7:30 a.m. eastern when he joins us as a special guest. i don't know we've got something on him, andrew he's agreed to 90 minutes to be here. >> it's going to be fascinating. i imagine his comments may move markets. >> yeah, they will we talk a little bit -- you know, cincinnati and st. louis are kind of sister -- we're not that far apart a lot of the same type of salt-of-the-earth people, fly-over states. as you're in the plain, you definitely look down at those -- from -- right? no >> salt of the earth, joe, you are. salt of the earth. >> that's the first thing you think of when you think of me. salty maybe. a little salty most mornings. >> let's talk about energy because we're going to need it let's see where the price goes with it. ru

jim bullard says he favors frontloading with big rate hikes. minneapolis counterpart says they are committed to lowering prices. san francisco thinks rates will remain high for up to a year. president joe biden will sign a second executive order intended to improve access to abortion services a day after voters in kansas rejected a name -- amendment to their state constitution that would have erased abortion rights. elon musk's lawyers are accusing twitter. in a letter to the judge, his lawyers say twitter was demanding time to review material to wage a media campaign and keep elon musk's side of the story concealed. twitter says they are trying to skirt court rules. professional golfers are suing the pga tour calling it an illegal monopoly. they say it is hurting their careers by suspending them for joining saudi arabia's financed liv tour. they say it is part of the plan to squash the rival tour and they are seeking a court order to lift the anticompetitive actions. global news 24 hours per day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analy

they're shooting against jim bullard. earnings are lower for q3 and q4 and not that much lower and there's certainly no earnings recession forecasted right now. oil is definitely on the down side and the ism services numbers, tyler, new orders higher and prices are still up and increasing in a slower rate and that's an increase for a better fourth quarter. >> thank you now to the bond market tracking the action in chicago. rick >> hi, tyler many are looking at durable goods and the orders and yes, they were better tharn expected and better than the reits on durables and they weren't spectacular and when i look at the ism services sector, it's basically coming off 25-month low levels as are s&p global services and composite coming off basically the lowest levels and those two are at the lowest levels since may of 2020 so we really need to be cautious and even though all of that occurred look at a two-year note yield and they're really up solid and more solid than the ten-year which has caused the curve to flatten and inver

jim bullard doubles down on that message. their top priority is bringing down inflation.hleen, it seems like the fed officials were trying to deal with this. >> if you don't listen to what they say you will get yourself in and a fixation where they are wrong. if it looks like the economy is going down, it will be a recession surely they will have to call back. the fed has to get more restrictive. he also thinks that they can pull off a soft landing because they have more credibility then when he came in. he was untested but such a different position now. let's listen to something he said. >> i would like to see the policy rate get to 3.75 or 4% this year. i think inflation has come in hotter than what i would have expected during the second quarter. now that that has happened, i think we will have to go a little bit higher than what i was saying before. >> he went on to say that we would be more data-dependent. he raised rates a lot. he thinks this will have to go at the end of the year. somewhere in the middle between the markets and the fed saying we are not done fighti

jim bullard saying a similar thing. so it does feel like there is a consensus at least about getting there and holding rather than cutting right away, which is what the market has come to anticipate. dan, you are talking about how the data rolls in, and it feels like the data that rolled in at 10:00 a.m. eastern was overshadowed by pal's speech. inflation expectations did take down. is that all gas prices? what is your read on that? dan: it's a good question, and i have always been a little nervous about relying too much on inflation expectations as a guide to policy. you know, intuitively of course you can see how the expectations of businesses and households matter for the future course of inflation. but we don't have a very good idea of what changes expectations, and i think there is a fair amount of evidence for the proposition to which you just alluded, that at least for short-term consumer inflation expectations gas prices have a very, very big effect. and, of course, those fluctuate with much less attention, or m

here is jim bullard, st. louis president. >> we still have some ways to go to get to a restrictive monetary policy. i have argued that with the hotter inflation numbers in the spring, we should get to 3.75 to 4% this year. >> san francisco fed president mary daly told reuters that if inflation keep soaring, a 75 point basis hike in september may be appropriate. 50 would be reasonable. she said this week that rate cuts in 2023 are not her modal outlook. joining us now, chief market strategist tony flyer. did the market not believe these fed officials that are coming out and trying to walk back? >> there is a little momentum that we have and people are remote more focused on that and maybe they became a little overly defensive around the low. now we are up over 14% and they are ignoring issues out there. it is interesting that jim bullard said we are not restrictive. we are at 225. he wants to go to 3.75 to 4%. i can't see how that is a great thing. >> there is that and the fact that we are starting to get a mi

jim bullard favors frontloading with big rate hikes.inneapolis counterparts say they are committed to lowering prices and a recession could happen. mary daly saying rates will remain high for up to a year. opec-plus will raise production, 100,000 barrels a day in one of the smallest hikes in their history. a blow for president biden after visiting saudi arabia looking to help cool fuel prices in the u.s. opec members said spare production capacity is severely limited and the excess should be used to respond to major supply disruptions. u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi will meet her south korean counterpart in seoul after wrapping up her controversial taiwan visit. issues include the indo pacific security and climate change. a meeting between them is unlikely, according to a statement. she has to japan on thursday night -- she has to japan thursday night. sweden and finland approved to join nato, aimed at bolstering the military alliance after the invasion of ukraine. if it wins approval from all current nato member's, finland will join e

is he more with jim bullard who said let's go 75 or take it easy and not overdo it.ait to hear from him. in commodities related to energy prices, a read on shale and supply and how much they are drilling. we have been focusing on demand in the oil market but about supply, are we still underestimated the constraints in the oil market? jonathan: i have a great video of us trying to get back to west london with the tube shut down and had to try to get on buses and had no idea what we were doing. it took three hours. tom: but this is indicative of what we will see with inflation. jonathan: more strikes? tom: i think a primal scream it from labor. jonathan: features down 1% on the s&p. joining us is michael shaoul. it is been said to sell tech. you agree? michael: the s&p has had a powerful bounce and at a level where it is seeing the point back up. i don't know i would pick on technology but this is a market good look at and if there were stacks you hung onto in june and you don't for great about them, this is a reasonable chance to say goodbye to them. tom: you have alw

and drive yourself crazy >> i mentioned less than two hours away from our own steve liesman with jim bullard liesman joins us now from jackson hole as he prepares for that and he has already done a couple interviews today. steve, i'd like your first reaction to this idea. josh says maybe inconsequential this meeting when we, you know, it's over hyped. i've read that today, too. yesterday tim rose saying it is unlikely the fed chair will lay out this granular path of rate hikes for the next few meetings. it is a bigger picture view. what is your own view? >> if i could just back up a little bit, they think that beta is 50% to 80% of stock changes, right? the stuff that you do in terms of analyzing the earnings socks are going to move with beta. beta is the fed and beta is what is happening with the economy. we'll do a whole bunch of interviews here. some of my competitors will do interviews as well the fed chair will give a big speech there's lots of room for beta here i get what josh is saying. i think he is right that 50, 75 makes less a difference than the overall outlook here the market h

jim bullard, raphael bostic joining bloomberg. jay powell is the first to ever bring people inside the room since he has been doing the meeting. it is interesting to figure out why now. [laughter] you guys are laughing at me. i am curious to see how much it comes down and how comfortably are with pce coming down. remember we would've been talking about the university of michigan sentiment. does anyone care about that anymore? jonathan: can we sleep now? i think it is fascinating the listing. it it is so consequential for the country and i think it is about time. lisa: i think that is a question to ask fed officials heard is this new transparency necessary given the pushback from the public with the rage airfield with inflation. tom: this is a debate. one of the things we should talk later is how much communication is too much. stephen major joins us now. your expectations for chairman powell later this morning. stephen: good morning to all of you. i haven't got a great expectation. i am more interested in the speeches and roundtab

it's different what we heard from jim bullard from -- trying to strike notes of what could happen as they continue to plow ahead with the hikes. the ibex opening down .4%. the ftse 100, and what's happening in china. aluminum and iron ore, both against the sovereign bond. a lot of focus today will be on the pound. also the pound versus the dollar, which is currently at one 19 point 02. -- 1.1902. this is what the asset check looks like. we need to talk about treasuries, dollar, part of the dollar move is thanks to the interview with you had with the indonesian president, where he said he is expecting both president xi jinping and vladimir putin to arrive. euro-dollar, 1.0075. let's get over to the bloomberg managing editor. you're looking at the u.k., is it ok? mark: it is not ok. i don't want to give you bad news on the friday, it's still a weekend. you mentioned the plant, i'm looking at how cable sterling is versus the gap between two-year u.k. rates and two-year u.s. rates. u.k. rates have been raising rapidly. u.k. rates really rising quickly amid inflation data. that surge in u

. >> jim bullard now a hawk urging the five point basis by -- basis hike. he says why drive it into the next year, get it done now. he was saying frontloaded the hard go fast and you can pause and see things -- where things are standing. esther george of kansas city given remarks today said that the case for a rate hike remains strong. she said my colleagues and i are going to continue to debate the size. she said it on the first 75 basis point hike. she said we have rates up and we are doing it fast. mary daly told us what she told us a week ago speaking as well. 50 or 75. her baseline is 50 but she is open to 75. let's talk about the economic numbers that sherry just mentioned. jobless claims 250,000 in the latest week. they have been stuck at a healthy level supporting the fed's view that the labor market is still strong. home sales are down 5.9% existing home sales hit the lowest since 2020. this is where the fed is keeping a close eye because organs rates of shot up. people have pulled out of contract closing. this was already hitting the economy and i

jim bullard thinking it's in that range. the fed is below neutral right now in opposition to what powell said. he thinks it needs to go as high as 4%, the fed funds rate to push unemployment up even more. larry summers is arguing 5.5% or more. now there is an argument between him and chris wallace that we don't need to go that high. we've never been in this situation before and it will take a while to figure it out. kriti: always reassuring, bloomberg's michael mckee. let's push now to market reaction. the libor rate rose for the fourth straight session, now the highest since november of 2008 following the hawkish comments from the fed reserve officials. alex, thank you for joining us. you have a long history of reporting on these markets. walk us through the market reaction. how justified is this? will we see more of that bond volatility? alex: the interesting thing is that libor i don't think is a leading indicator anymore. the way the methodology has been restructured in the post manipulation years, it's using a trait to

kathleen: jim bullard from st. the wall street journal, saying that we should just go ahead, do the bigger rate hike. 75 basis points. frontload, go fast and do bigger rate hikes, make an impact, then sit back and look at what is going on. he said, let's get it done now. esther george, reserve bank of kansas city, says, the case for rate hikes remains strong, for sure, but i will still be debating with my colleagues on the speed of the headaches. in other words, how quickly do you get to the neutral rate, the restrictive level that the fed wants? mary daly repeated what she said last week, her baseline is 50 basis points, she will be watching the data for 75. she would like to raise it and then redundancy what is happening, that strategy. to that extent, it is clear what their intentions are. it is still the case, though, that they are feeling their way along and he will do what they have to do. but nothing is set in stone yet, because they are watching the numbers. haidi: our colleague mark cranfield was saying hi

jim bullard also making the point he sees a possibility for a soft landing. he doesn't see a recession for the u.s. economy. so there's been that since the last fed meeting when they said there could be some rate hikes. i think these four officials are making it clear that inflation remains a clear and present danger for them. manus: it certainly does. thank you very much. our chief asian correspondent. stocks in asia, trying to understand what nancy pelosi's visit did, aren't they? then add in p.m.i. coming in better on the services side. balance the act for me. how are you? >> a lot more sanguine today. a lot of anxiety we had yesterday taken out of the markets. they are lifting the offshore yuan. for taiwan, down for a third. that's lifting the hang seng tech index. and we're looking ahead to ali ba ba as well. and the big e.v. batterymaker could be delaying its north america plant plans on pelosi's visit. they say it wouldn't affect the stock but we're seeing shares down about 2% today. let's look at my chart as well. there's an interesting call, the unce

jim bullard says he favors big rate hikes.y are committed to lowering prices and a recession could happen. mary daly thinks rates will remain high for up to a year. nancy pelosi will meet her counter part insole after wrapping up her controversial taiwan visit. it is on the agenda include into pacific security and climate dependence. -- climate change. opec plus will raise production in september and one of the smallest hikes in history. it is a blow for president joe biden after visiting saudi arabia in july, trying to help cool fuel prices in the united states. their production capacity is limited. india plans to work with cleaner fuels. the roads third bennett -- their biggest emitter of greenhouse gases is pushing to hit net zero by 2030. the government is seeking a mandate for the use of some fossil fuels. a group of professional golfers including phil mickelson are suing the pga tour, calling it and -- an illegal monopoly. the players say the suspensions are part of the pga's plan to course rebel tours. global news, 24 h

the market was not pricing from the jim bullard 3.75 to 4%. now we basically are. two-year yields are at risk of continuing to move significantly higher maybe towards 4% comfortably as the fed winds up hiking into 2023. and the big result of that, deeper inversion of the yield curve and we have seen so far. alix: vincent, what surprised you about jackson hole? something surprise the markets of the margin perhaps. is it the extent of the interest rate hikes still become, or is it more about the duration, the time we will spend at the higher interest rates? that conversation about hiking and holding. is that what surprised the markets? >> a little of both, but when you mentioned about hiking holding part, a lot of people are pricing in potential cuts in the fed funds rate into 2023. the fed is going to drive us into some sort of recession and are going to be forced to reverse this policy that they have now. we know they are going to go in september. but i will bring something up -- i'm a very big critic of the fed at this point. this will be the 97th change of the fe

and then there is what jim bullard said here in new york city today. >> yes.ust how specific on what is needed in that inflation fight. there are members out there. >> i think i just summed it up for you. i think it is interesting that at one time, evans and nestor were both considered done and here they are, the hawkishness has really coalesced because i think the job is so clear. you don't have to think too hard about what you have to do. jim was speaking today and he said he thinks they are going to actually have to get restrictive. but he too said we will start watching the data more and maybe inflation surprised me. it was worse than i thought in the second quarter. he may have to do a little bit more but he is also in the cap that maybe we will slow down. he is also insisting there won't be a recession. there is a very academic presentation about the fed having more credibility than they did when paul volcker stepped in and having to pull off that red hot inflation and because they have adequate ability. he still thinks that they can pull off a soft land

louis fed president jim bullard says a soft landing is still possible, but more rate hikes will be neededa soft landing on our set if an hour and a half later this morning, 7:30 to 9:00 that we really look forward to. >>> breaking news on crypto. two senators introducing a new bill that would regulate digital cur currencies it's wednesday, august 3rd, 2022, and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >>> good morning and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. and, well, becky quick is off today, so it's just the boys again. again, joe, but we're going to have a lot of fun doing it. >>> u.s. equity futures at this hour, let's show everybody where they are dow jones up about 130 points. s&p up a

of the speech, don't miss interviews today and tomorrow with esther george and patrick hawk and jim bullard more live from jackson hole, wyoming. >>> still to come on "worldwide exchange." peloton is set to report results. we will dive into the deal is a first step to better days for the fitness company. >>> we will also have other stories coming up as we head to break. we touch on the trending stories. gamestop apparently boosting compensation for some employees in store the retailer will give workers a pay raise in company stock to motivate and retain employees. >>> warner bros. discovery hitting pause on a number of films. "aquaman" and "shazam" is cutting back as they look to save money. >>> and pink floyd catalog is not close to striking a deal with blackstone. "worldwide exchange" is back in a moment makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new tra

louis fed president jim bullard and leaning more toward 75 from 50. of those digest in here and a market that is unchanged on the day and s&p 500 42.75 -- 4275, inverted yield curve coming out. this is bloomberg. ♪ millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network and most recommended wireless carrier. that's a whole lot of happy campers out there. and it's never too late to join them. get $450 off any new purchase of an eligible samsung device with xfinity mobile. or add a line to your plan today at xfinitymobile.com mark: ukrainian grain flows pushing down global prices. more than 500,000 tons of supplies exported from the countries major report in august. that is far from a normal pace but it has given you relief to grain supplies strained by the invasion and dad whether. in the u.k., thousands of workers began a round of strikes, paralyzing rail service. only one in five paints in the count

i will say this, following jim bullard has been an interesting exercise and he says things that are extremend they end up being the center of the committee and people scoffed at the idea of 75 basis points when he said it and they've done it twice now. what do you think the center of gravity is and where do you think it's going >> yeah. i think the doves -- the hawk, sorry, still carry the day i did say we expect 50 in september, but that doesn't mean we expect a lower domino rate. if anything, the risk of potential spending data are that the dominant rate goes higher because the chain for reasoning here is lower inflation on the one hand means less urgency to hike in the near-term and on the other hand it means consumer spending and the broader economy holds off a little bit better that means there's less conflict between the fed's two mandates and so they can keep hiking and the potential that we could see a domino rate of 4% and maybe higher >> i'll get back to you in a second, but aditya, i would like you to explain the thesis. are base cases for a recession to start in the coming month

louis fed president jim bullard.nks for joining us. >> happy to be here. >> tyler gives you a curtain raise, a man who speaks his mind and not afraid to talk about where things are going what's your take a couple of weeks ago you talked about a 4.4 peak funds rate. are you still in line with that idea >> i think i said 3.75 to 4. >> okay. >> -- is my target for this year, for the end of this year, and i like the front loading i like the idea that you get the rate increases in earlier rather than later we've got inflation right now. we've got a strong labor market right now. it seems like a good time to get to the right neighborhood for the funds rate we had a good debate in the noon hour of the idea of 50 and 75 and how much does it matter? what's the upside of that? i think the front loading idea is that first of all, you show you're serious about inflation fighting and you want to get up to the level that will put downward pressure on inflation and we're at 2.33 right now. that's not high enough to be serious about

jim bullard striking a pretty hawkish tone saying he thinks inflation could prove to be more consistent and that the fed needs to bring rates up now quickly to combat the current inflation problem that we have >> i like the front loading. i like the idea that you get the rate increases in earlier rather than later we've got kpinflation right now. we've got a strong labor market right now. it seems like the right time to get to the right neighborhood for the funds rate. >> reporter: president patrick harker said he hadn't decided what to do in september, he could go either way, 50, 75 and wouldn't figure out until he sees the inflation data for august but 50 basis points is still a hefty hike >> i want to see the next reading and then decide. >> next inflation reading? >> yeah. that said, i want to put this in a bit of a history cal context since '93 the fed has raised 83 times. 75 of those were under 50 basis points a 50 basis point move is still a substantial move. >> reporter: okay, where both agree is rates need to move higher the question for tomorrow is the extent to which powell a

show you what the major averages are doing as we head out one hour from now steve liesman with jim bullard one day ahead of the fed chair himself "the exchange" is now. >>> thanks, scott. i'm jon fortt. investors anxiously awaiting fed chair powell's big speech at jackson hole tomorrow. we will look at what a transformation into a dove would look like for powell and what that would mean for your money plus, the peloton ceo compares the company to turning a cargo ship as it tries to evolve it's not the only company hoping to pull off a transformation as demand for its product wanes a post-pandemic reinvention and can they succeed making payments, making a fashion statement and making yourself look good we have the action, story and the trade on affirm, gap and ulta in today's earnings exchange we begin with the markets and bob pisani bob? >> reporter: the market is holding up off of the highs. there daent seem to be too much jitterness the dow, s&p, nasdaq all up. we're up two days in a row off the s&p. we're down for the week but up almost 1% for the month for the s&p. the dow industrials

but it is how high and how fast they raise jim bullard saying given the strength of the economy he isaight 75-basis point interest hike. meantime, mary daley saying hiking by 75 or 50 would be quote reasonable but that the exact pace would depend on employment and inflation data, coming ahead of the conference in jackson hole, wyoming >>> and we learned from steve liesman that jerome powell will be speaking. >>> joining us with ideas on where investors can hide, chief investment officer of new wedge wealth >> i'm wondering what your take is on the declines we're seeing premarket. >> we're thinking that this rally would stall in the near term, because we've seen what we're calling a dangerous convergence that supported the rally coming out of the june yields, things like oil topping, and federate hike expect taatios topping. we've seen the dollar climb again. and what that raises the question is how durable this rally can be because as we see things like the federat rate hike expectati, it does make the valuation multiples look rather questionable we're at 19 times right now, which is

and 25 and 25, it caught me by surprise and now i'm thinking about it more i'm thinking it was jim bullard who said not that long ago, hey, you know what, 75 basis points is a lot it's a big move. we already raised 225 basis points if i told you at the beginning of the year that at the end of this year we're going to raise 225 basis points, you might have said that's enough the point is, is the market getting too carried away with just how aggressive the fed can be i mean, in the fed's stance, don't they say, we've done 225 if we do 325 by the end of the year, we've got to see what happens? >> yeah. and i think they should. i've also said i think -- and here's where i think the larry summers way, who i respect very much as a fellow academic. he's wrong when he thinks about 5% i don't think the so-called r-star or what we call the neutral fed funds rate is as high as the fed thinks i think once they get to the two level, they're being a little restrictive, believe it or not 2.5, 3, you can see by the term structure. we live in a very different world than we lived in the '70s, '80s, '90s, an

louis fed president jim bullard saying he is leaning toward a 75-basis point rate hike at the septemberout there both on the minutes yesterday and in response to the pivot that was perceived from the chairman at the press conference last week so the issue is this this is not dramatically different from where bullard has been all along he still seems to be -- by the way this is a "wall street journal" interview that was done he still seems to be in line with the idea of 3.75 to 4% by the end of the year. this is close to where the market is. if you look at the fed rate outlook, kelly, the market is at 3.50 bullard is at 3.75 to 4% you still have, what, another 100 or so to go in the next two meetings that could be 250 he's more aggressive than the overall committee but not necessarily more aggressive where the market is. there's been this 50, 75 it's interesting, kelly. i do not see much of a change in the probabilities. we were at 60% probability of a 50 this morning and we're still at 57. so just down a little bit really a little bit more leaning towards the 75 but not the odds-on favo

very aggressive talking about a continued need to focus on aggressive rate hikes and inflation, jim bullard talking about 4.25, 4.5% by year-end. just do the math, you realize they have to be very aggressive. they have only three meetings left. that is the reality of it, right? that the fed actually expects inflation to kind of stick around longer than i think the market had convinced itself of. neil: well-put. kenny, great catching up with you. susan is following other developments the back and forth battle over twitter and a certain individual who has been subpoenaed. this just gets more interesting by the minute, susan. >> talking about the twitter whistle-blower. this definitely plays into elon musk and his case to walk away from the twitter takeover deal. the whistle-blower, former head of security, peter, actually infamous in the hacking world hired after the infamous hacks of celebrity and politician accounts back in 2020. zatco filed complaints with the justice department, fcc, ftc accusing twitter of misleading regulators, investors, users, what he called serious lapsers protecting

would do what it takes to bring inflation down s the fed officials have a more optimistic outlook jim bullardmature, and mary daly in san francisco, says the marketshave a lot of understanding rates won't go down as -- and the fed may need to do more he doesn't know if recession can be avoided and esther george, once the biggest hawk on the board, now maybe more dovish, saying not a time for a victory lap the markets and fed are in line with where the rates been going to 3.5%. next year is in contention markets priced in 3.25 first is the amount, the other is the direction the fed would have to hike and begin cutting rapidly for the market to get this right but fed officials seem intent on convincing markets the more likely outcome is for the fed to hike and hold. of course, all of that depends on inflation in the coming months it has to come down in a way that convinces officials the decline will be lasting. we'll get to ask the questions next week in jackson hole. >> we're looking forward to that, steve. i have a follow-up question. i heard you talking on "squawk box" this morning about an

not only did jim bullard say he thinks the fund rates should go higher but he said it should be higheri think we'll probably have to be longer for higher in order to get the evidence we need to see to see that inflation is actually turning around on all dimensions and in a convincing way coming lower, not just a tick lower here or there >> bohe says he also expects better for the second half of 2022 and push back on the idea the economy is currently in a recession. an idea that will be challenged again on friday. that would continue this ongoing anomily we've seen between negative gdp growth. payrolls on average fall about half a percentage point per quarter. instead of losing a million and a half jobs, we gain 3 million that's a 4.5 million job swing job growth behavior over these past six months is just much stronger than the average recession, and that's true for almost every other monthly metric they look at except for the quarterly gdp data yet by many accounts workers remain scarce. if we don't have a big decline in jobs it's unclear, guys, if we've had a recession at all >> yeah

jim bullard tried to push this, we asked about the longer-term neutral, that dot at the end of the dotnt to talk about it. we have to deal with what is in front of us right now. 8.5%. and rates are too low for many on the committee. tom: i am looking at the dollar. this is a really good set of math on em currencies with record dollar strength. sterling, 1.17 exactly. this penalty -- the euro at .9996. jonathan: negative follow-through from friday into monday. equity futures are lower. negative on the nasdaq by 1.2%. the story of the equity market, it is much lower. bond market, higher and higher. we are fading a little bit from the highs this morning. but still higher by six basis points. i do not know what to do with the euro-dollar. we have got yields breaking out this morning. the ecb will discuss qt. the willy discuss a 75 basis point rate hike. it will send them into a recession, but they are willing to keep going. do you buy or sell? tom: what is interesting is the diffuse amount of a currency not against the major pair like the euro-dollar, but the summation of euro check and on

louis fed president jim bullard told us it made sense for the fed to move faster >> i like the front idea that you get the rate increases in earlier rather than later we've got inflation right now, we've got a strong labor market right now. seems like a good time to get to the right neighborhood for the funds rate >> there's also talk and powell said this at his last press conference, of moving toward more modest series of rate hikes, but powell needs to be careful not to suggest that they will ease back on rate hikes only that they would be more moderate in the future, becky? >> i guess, steve, the big question is, is anything he says going to be more hawkish than the market's already anticipating we've got some pretty high expectations for that. can't come as a huge surprise if he says something, unless he says it's absolutely going to be 75 basis points. i can't think of much else that would come but i don't fknow that the markt doesn't react anyway >> it's a good point, it's an observation of how much the market has moved towards the fed. if we were here, i don't know, even as re

louis fed president jim bullard was telling us yesterday he expects the fed to be higher for longer presidentsfrom san francisco and from minneapolis >> some are expecting us to cut interest rates next year i don't want to say it's impossible, but the more likely scenario is that we would continue raising >> okay. so here's conflict in numbers. both markets and fed projections are in line for this year with the fund rates seen rising to end the year at 340. but next year markets have cut priced in. the gap, 80 basis points 380 for the fed, 303 for the market obviously the economy and inflation are going to determine who's got this right a full-blown recession that brings inflation down sharply could bring about those cuts since the fed began publish being its rate outlook in 2015 it overestimated rates it ended the year at 0.24. but the past three years it's had a better track record when it promised to keep rates near zero during the pandemic this time it's different nobody really cared back then that inflation came in below the 2% target. people care an awful lot now that it's above that tar

insisted the market was wrong to price in rate cuts next year rather than rate cuts next year, jim bullardus on cnbc it was more likely to be higher for longer kashkari said fed cuts next year are a very unlikely scenario, and daly said markets are really ahead of themselves. it should tell you the extent of the more hawkish view is shared by the committee that could be a wakeup call. >> you have been saying this repeatedly, that you think the markets, i think, have made a mistake in terms of understanding what the fed is going to do going forward. you have the market on one side, sort of the academic economists on the other who clearly think the market is very, very wrong and then you have the wall street bank analysts sort of in the middle why is there such a dispersion in terms of understanding what the fed is really thinking >> i mean i think there's a bunch of answers to that question i mean, one is i feel like markets sometimes hear what they want to hear, and the market wanted to rally, and so it sort of heard powell say we're going to pivot here. i mean i didn't hear that. by the w