john avalon, senior political columnist for "newsweek" and the daily beast. anta, we have strategist maria cardona. john, you were tweeting it's absurd romney is actually struggling against santorum. he did win ohio but kind of squeaked by there. a lot of people are saying, even though santorum lost, it was impressive. would you agree? >> mitt romney outspent rick santorum four-to-one. even then, ohio was a squeaker with romney ultimately pulling it out. most of the night, rick santorum was ahead. convincing win for santorum in tennessee. so this race is going to keep going. it's going to keep going not just because of momentum, but because of math. mitt romney simply doesn't have the delegates he needs to lock this up. he clearly hasn't sealed the deal with the conservative base. there's a lot of reasons for this to move forward. >> mitt romney's camp had said a win is a win is a win. but online they were saying that only applies when it's sports. this could actually hurt him, right? >> richard nixon once said a silver medal in the olympics is still something

john avalon was thinking about this today. ohio, tennessee and oklahoma. st of all, john, is he out if he doesn't win anything? >> i don't think anybody's out. the math means this will go on. nobody will clinch the nomination tomorrow. that's just the facts. it's a momentum test. but clearly, if rick santorum after that three straight sweep he had, he's had narrow wins. if he can't put some serious wins on the board that's a major negative. he had a double-digit lead in ohio. now this is neck and neck. but he should have solid strength in oklahoma and in tennessee. but he's got to put real wins on the board tonight to show he's going to be the last man standing against mitt romney. >> jamal, this is got to be for the guys you're advising, some pretty good news. this long, drawn-out battle has hurt mitt romney significantly when it comes to approval rating. 40% unfavorable rating. which i believe is worse than any other recent candidate in american history who has gone on to win the nomination. according to the nbc/"wall street journal" poll. you're i'm sure

john avalon what, i'm curious about is whether this is going to affect presidential politics.ther the president or any of the candidates will make a phone call to the family or make a comment. >> it hasn't happened yet. this is, first of all, bigger than politics, this is a matter of justice. when you have thousands of people weeks later rallying in a sense of outrage, the question is what do we do with that passion? how does that affect our national conversation? we've already seen the florida state senator who authored this bill saying it shouldn't apply to mr. zimmerman. there are ways that politics can start to channel this passion in constructive directions. but it becomes the responsibility to use it as a wake-up call and to help depolarize the situation. >> how does the president handle this? as the first african-american president of the united states. this is both personal for him as well as a national issue. >> so far there has not been a statement, in part because i think his weighing in would be seen potentially as politicizing, especially with his poepopponents. h

john avalon is here.ve pictures today of newt gingrich carrying around an etch-a-sketch, rick santorum in a car looking at an etch-a-sketch. so they were quick to seize upon this. why is this getting so much pickup? >> this gets a lot of pickup because it goes to the heart of political communications. this resonates because it deepens an existing deepening narrative about mitt romney. that's the line his competitors have been trying to make over and over again. it was compounded by the sib of vivid language and a visual metaphor. immediately etch-a-sketch, that gives something to literally hold on to. and that gaffe stemmed on what was objectively a good day for the romney campaign. big win in illinois, big endorsement from jeb bush. >> right. though i wonder how much of it is us, our world. we love talking about it. i don't know. there's something else you've been really looking at which is fund-raising and john has been covering this second by second but also passionate about it. romney had a big month

james carville joins us and john avalon. i've seen you listening to jeff toobin with that devilish smile on your face. if the law gets struck down, you think it would be great? >> first of all, you've got to give it toobs, he's worried about 30 million people without insurance instead of insurance companies. how quaint. if they overturn it 5-4, i think it would be the best thing that ever happened to the democratic party. people will say the health care costs are going up and they'll say we tried, five people overturned an election, overturned this. bush v. gore bring you this and i think we'll have an issue to go for a long, long time. i'm fine with it. overturn it 5-4. let the hacks have their day. >> john, you disagree? >> yeah, you've got to search pretty hard for a silver lining to come up with a scenario where having the signature legislative accomplishment struck down becomes a good thing. i agree with james to this extent that in the short run i think it will help turn out the democratic base and make the issue of --

matt bye and john avalon is also here. let me start with you, john. there's something to me that is just unbelievable about the fact that the guy in charge of putting a budget out in the senate says he wants his legacy to be dealing with this fiscal crisis and the way to do it is to leave the senate and leave that job. >> that's right. that's how frustrated, that's how much of an impasse they're at. the responsible actors are leaving because we see over and over again this inability to compromise. everyone says there's 80% agreement and yet we get zero progress. today bowles-simpson got put back forward to a bill late last night. only 38 members of the house voted for it. >> and you have nancy pelosi, unbelievable i was there but then i was there but then i was that. >> this is profiles and cowardice, day after day they prove they deserve to have the lowest approval ratings in congressional history. they talk about the deficit, demagogue about the deficit and refuse to deal with it. it's disgusting. >> matt, you did an incredible piece of journalism.

john avalon, what happens in illinois? today the latest poll actually, 44% for romney and 30% for santorum. >> i mean in the expectation game this poll probably doesn't help romney. we've seen santorum outperform the polls. this should be a strong state for romney. but there's really a division between the downstate conservative rural voters and the suburban voters who are more likely to be romney folks. this is a big state, it's romney's latest firewall. if santorum pulled off an upset, it would be a big headline. but right now they're looking downstate. romney is hoping for a strong win tomorrow and this is going to play out for weeks and months. >> was it gq or esquire that came out with this breaking news? someone will tell me in my ear. but anyway -- gq. the secret service names are out. apparently mitt romney is javelin and rick santorum is petris. >> what? >> i don't know, petris. >> it's an expensive wine, right? >> that's the plural of petra in jordan? that's not exactly -- that's not really renegade, right? >> ja

. >> john avalon, who focuses on the 40% of the electorate who is independent, is this a convincingly win? >> this was a stomping win for mitt romney. it was the most broad based win since in --. he won women voters tonight and conservatives. now some of the fault lines that have been underneath the gop race still exist. strong supporters of the tea party, evangelicals going for rick santorum. you see how rick santorum is doing very well in the rural counties. but a big win for romney tonight and team romney has to feel good. >> and number two is will santorum surprise us? romney did extremely well. did rick santorum surprise to the downside or come in where you thought he would? >> i think he came to the downside. the truth is if he's going to grow the brand and he's going to demonstrate he can win a general election he has to do very well in the color counties, because areas like depage county, suburban counties are a lot like northern virginia and suburban philadelphia. that's places that a candidate has to win to win a presidency. >> ryan is talking about the brand of rick santoru

john avalon, our cnn contributor, he's in new york as well.ican strategist and blogger in washington. let's start with romney, picking up big states, of course, what do you think? is this a matter of time before he wins the nomination, doug? >> yes, i think so. this is -- it's a football game and romney keeping moving the ball down the field, maybe didn't score a touchdown last night or field goal, but that ball keeps moving down the field. he continues to pick up delegates. the other candidates are so far hind they're playing a game of catch-up. >> robert? >> i think it's worth noting, doug, that ultimately last night mitt romney won the math, but lost the momentum. that's very energizing if you're an accountaent, but what i was struck by, he underperformed in almost every competitive state, in virginia, where he was only facing ron paul, ron paul got 40%. in tennessee where romney had the governor and the republican leaders of the legislature, he lost solidly to rick santorum. in ohio, where he outspent santorum he barely won. >> john? >> lo

joining us to talk about what's at stake for the candidates, cnn contributor, john avalon, senior politicalbeast. hey, john, great to see you. it's going to be another fun night. let's talk about it a little bit here. you've got a week after romney describes alabama and mississippi as this away game, now you've got this three-man race, essentially, fiercely contested. what is at stake for today? >> it's a fascinating three-man race, and it really is too close to call, which adds to the drama. mitt romney has moved up in the polls. but the big surprise is newt gingrich. a lot of people thought he was dead. he captured his home state of georgia, but he's continuing this theme of being the candidate who can most connect in the deep south. seems to be doing very well in the polls. but of course, there's rick santorum. he's had the evangelical community rally around his candidacy. so he can't be knocked out of contention. bottom line tonight, a fascinating fight for the delegates in the deep south. this is the core of conservative base. and one of the real challenges that mitt romney has had thr

i like another cnn contributor, john avalon and brian sandoval and david petraeus should be somebodyng that romney, i hope will not do that use the vice presidency as one more opportunity to rally the hard base of the republican party. if they are still not rallied by the time the convention, there's nothing that can be done. he has to talk to the country, and he needs to talk to the whole country. >> who scares as a vice presidential running mate, the democrats the most? would it marco rubio, paul ryan, jeb bush who can appeal to hispanics out there. >> like mitt romney they will represent the same old economic policies of the previous administration, so i'm not really fearful of any of his picks, but here's what i believe he will do. i believe he will go back to the right and perhaps put bob mcdonald, the governor of virginia, marco rubio, the senator from florida and he needs to put several important battleground states into play. >> here's what with marco rubio told the daily caller and he said this, he said there are a lot of other people out there that some of us wish had run f

john king. tell us what you see the delegate map. >> that's a set-up line if ever i've heard one. then the other two guys beat me up. i know who it works. mr. avalonsaid romney is not inevitable. he is correct. let's just say he wins illinois tonight and get most of the delegates. i just gave senator santorum louisiana. if romney wins illinois, santorum not even half that. you got to get to 1,144. fast-forward to the end of the process for the sake of the conversation. i want to play with some of these states. say for example, santorum people say no, we can play here. other santorum people say we can play in indiana. these will be key contests, west virginia, i'll give to santorum, north carolina for the sake of this hypothetical, santorum. it still has romney clinching. where else, if you look at the map. santorum under this scenario, being generous, louisiana, texas and wisconsin, indiana, what has to happen for senator santorum is under this scenario, romney would clinch by the finish line. how does senator santorum stop him? he has to win all of these states. then he would have to take away one of the big winner takes all. like california or g