help fight my battle. >> it doesn't seem to matter, john kasich. voters that are more favorable toward trump with each indictment? there was one voter who talked about the 38,000 dow and taking in that reality. which biden doesn't seem to be able to communicate to most people. >> you know, andrea, i think it's -- i think mark hit on it. it's a grievance campaign. there have been many people who have been attracted to that. he is strong. you know, he is strong and, therefore, he will help fix all these things i'm upset about. i didn't get a fair shake on things. it's called negative populism. there's such a thing called positive populism, where you look at somebody and said, you have a problem, let's fix it. what he does, he blames it on somebody else. unfortunately, that authoritarian approach has captured people inside the republican party. you can also see there are a significant number of republicans, just reading something a few minutes ago that says, no matter what, there are a group of republicans who will never vote for donald trump in a gen

where did john kasich run particularly well?ran quite well in what i would call the connecticut river valley, right in here, right in around hanover. that's of course dartmouth college, where i in fact went to school. john kasich easily won in hanover, with 42% of the vote. but the key nugget to see here, very few votes in hanover. he won there with just 688 votes. it's not good enough just to carry hanover. >> that is 2016. 2012 a little bit of a similar story. >> huntsman, best state by far. he dropped out of the race after new hampshire. he came in third place with about 17% of the vote. but, again, where do you see the huntsman yellow on the screen? you see it in hanover. again, very well educated hanover, new hampshire. he only got 531 votes there. it's simply put not good enough to win the state. >> no. you want to win in new hampshire, manchester is the biggest city. the votes there are in the thousands. harry, we do have similar data -- john mccain. people think about john mccain. john mccain won big in new hampshire aft

and a former presidential candidate from 2016, john kasich. >> as a matter of fact, john, let's talkhat, in 2016, you actually ran, came in second in new hampshire running against trump and others. what are the conversations like, do you think, inside the nikki haley campaign this morning? >> well, look, the question is what is her goal? what is she trying to do? is she trying to redefine the republican party? for me, i went to south carolina because i was hopeful over time that we would deny trump enough delegates at the convention where people would pick somebody besides trump. when that opportunity disappeared, i then withdrew. but with haley, i mean, she's going to have a very tough time in south carolina. looks like all of the political forces down there, the establishment, have turned against her. and i don't know -- i just don't know how she can win in south carolina, it's winner take all. i think she has to figure out if she stays in, what is her narrative, what is her message. it's not good enough to say i'm young, he's old. he's losing his way when he communicates. that's n

that's john kasich, where you see the pink here, all the red is pink. the pink is john kasich. he ran a similar theoretical campaign that haley was running, trying to run up the numbers in the suburbs, higher income folks, and higher education folks. haley also focusing on those undeclared voters, the independents, nearly 350,000 voters that weren't republican or democrat, but could choose to vote republican, much like what kasich was trying to do. what happened last night? this is where the map is. you'll see a lot more yellow than there was pink. haley picking up a number of townships and cities that kasich was unable to. now, trump still winning by a sizable margin, but when you think about haley's theory of the case, it shows that it was in large part accurate. take a look at the township of bedford. back in 2016, trump won this by 12 points over john kasich. this demographically, socioeconomically is exactly what haley was looking for. highly educated, high income. this is the suburbs, this is where she wanted to win. this is where she did win, flipping trump's lead by a s

john kasich, undeclared voters can vote in the new hampshire primary. nikki haley absolutely -- this is the best landscape she's going to have. she has to win something. second place isn't going to count. >> i think that's true. again, i talked to somebody this morning, as soon as iowa was over, and i said what's going on on the ground? he knows what's going on on the ground. he said, in the last week or so, she's kind of plateaued. maybe going up a little bit, but not at the trajectory she had. there's some misgivings up there, which he tells me that he does not believe that she will win. she could get within striking distance. but then, you have to go to south carolina. you have to go to super tuesday. it's a real challenge for her. she's going to fight it out until she feels as though she doesn't see any kind of an opening. just one other thing, andrea, that you mentioned. that is, i understand -- i read an interesting article. it's the way people feel when they go to the grocery store and the price of eggs and milk. it's what's happening in the bask

this is an area where john kasich in 2016 won despite losing the state. statewide performs. when you talk to nikki haley's supporters, you hear a mix of voters that are unlikely allies. >> i consider myself a traditional republican. >> 26-year-old joseph molar is planning to vote for nikki haley in tuesday's new hampshire primary. >> policywise i'm more in line with haley. >> reporter: the law school student and self-described moderate -- >> i'm thrilled to be back in the great state of new hampshire. >> right now nikki haley is clearly the one that has the best chance of defeating trump. >> that's your top priority, defeating trump? >> that's my top priority. >> reporter: the polling since donald trump's historic win in iowa shows the former president leading by double digits in new hampshire but facing a tougher challenge from his former u.n. ambassador. >> i voted for him twice and i was just humiliated when i saw the guy i voted for, the way he handled himself after he lost. >> reporter: he's a key part of the coalition of voters haley has been trying

the person he beat john kasich, he basically took up residence in the state of new hampshire over thehe months leading up to the new hampshire. he did win a number of townships. those are the types of townships when you look at the pink where he was able to edge donald trump out in various places. these are the types of townships that are demographically aligned. but this is higher income, higher education, so nikki haley not only needs to hit on these counties that john kasich won in 2016, but she needs to expand out. here's where the problem lies if you're the haley campaign. if you go to places like manchester this is the biggest population center. this had is a place where democrats in a general election usually win. donald trump dominated this township in 2016. here's what we're watching for tonight. flip down into bedford county. this is where donald trump won by 12 points in 2016. if you look at the education makeup of this township, this is prime nikki haley demographics right here. 73.6% are college garraduates. higher income as well. watch bedford. if bedford moves towards n

host: john kasich 116% in that primary back in 2016. eight years later, if nikki haley will pull off an upset, where do you expect we will see it first? guest: i think we will see it in the suburban communities between manchester and new hampshire's southern border with massachusetts. lots of suburban voters along the interstate 93 corridor in eastern hillsboro county and western rocking him county. -- rocking him county. -- rocking him - rockingham. nikki haley should be a good choice for those voters when she talks about a new generation of conservative leadership. one might think that would resonate among those sorts of voters. i keep a special eye on the town of bedford. that for is just to the west of manchester. it will likely have the third most votes cast in hillsboro which is the largest county in new hampshire. when i moved to bedford 25 years ago, it was regarded as one of the most republican towns in the state area during the trump you're a, in a general election, joe biden carried that town in 2020 because of the polarizati

john kasich won several townships, the areas that nikki haley will be targeting without any questionher educated townships, suburban townships, areas where there is a population that matches the demographic lens that nikki haley has been targeting over the course of the last several months but also a place where donald trump even if you pull up where the suburbs are, donald trump almost swept the suburbs in the southeastern part of the state. if you push out into the rural areas, donald trump crushed these rural areas as well. in the places where donald trump lost, if you want to look at the population centers, pull it out a little bit and you will see where the bigger bubbles r that's where more people are. the places where he lost, not really that sizable and that underscores his dominance in the state in 2016 when it was a much more even race than it appears to be right now. what does that mean going forward? the amount of money that nikki haley has spent up to this point, ad spending, everybody you talk to when you are in new hampshire talks about the fact they've been blitzed ov

we have seen tht before and i know it seems like a one million years ago, but john kasich did this in016. ted cruz did this in 2016, they played the long delegates and ni haley has an argument to stay in their until super tuesday. however, i understand why she is doing it. is 2024, we know there is some kind of crazy disaster that happens. i understand why she is staying in. she will get delegates that she is there in case something happens. if things continue into trajectory that they're going, it is very difficult to imagine her path forward. host: one of the cases she has made his age, competency, do you think thaen we look at who may e presumptive candidate for each party? guest: i think that is a very effective argument if you are a republican running against joe biden. there moments where he struggles with names, where he is. in terms of being at an event and talking about another place. he is 81 and she has an effective argument. in terms of competencies she has an effective argument. at the end of 2020 one was when afghanistan happened and people believed that while america sh

also with us, former ohio governor and nbc news political analyst john kasich and fer nan amman difficultk at past margins of victory, bob dole has the record winning by over 12 points back in 1988. this latest poll this weekend shows a nearly 30-point edge going into caucus night. would anything short of that leave trump at all weak end? his campaign has said winning by 12 points will be a great night. will enthusiasm for him turn into turnout? >> reporter: ana, i think the historical perspective is important there's been talk trump needs a lead by 25 points or 30 points or 35 points. if the polling holds, his margin of victory will end up being double if not triple that bob dole margin of victory back in 1988. it would be a humongous victory in a multicandidate field. you mentioned enthusiasm. the poll shows that donald trump supporters are the most enthusiastic followed by ron desantis and followed after by nikki haley. in that really close race for second place between desantis and haley, that enthusiasm could really end up impacting tonigh >> governor, "the hill" laid out fi theories

but john kasich did this in 2016. ted cruz did this in 2016. they played the long game.ertainly has an argument to stay in there. at least until super tuesday. and i understand why she is doing it. this is 2024. we know every day when we wake up there's some other crazy disaster that happens. she is sg in. she is going to get delegates. she is there in case something happens. but if things continue in the trajectory that they are going you look at the numbers trump has in every one of his states coming up it is very difficult to imagine her path forward after super tuesday. >> one of the cases she's made she's talked about age, she talked about competency. as far as themes do you think that's gained any traction is far as how we look at who may be the presumptive candidates for each party? x that is a very effective argument if you are a republican biden. against joe there are plenty ofou see he struggles with names, where he is, in terms talking about anotr place. he certainly hasn't struggles given his age i believe he is 81. she has an effective argument in terms of c

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joining us now is former ohio governor john kasich.ndidate in 2016 and a former member of the house. don't you miss the house? i know you miss being there. you could have a different speaker every couple of months. motions to vacate. >> i was there in 1986. i hate to take people back. i was just a kid then. that's when we passed a bipartisan bill to deal with the immigration problem. it seemed as though we could have cooler heads and we could figure out how to have border security and let people have the ability to come in here legally. we got that done. it was done under ronald reagan and involved some form of amnesty. it was good for a while. in recent years, it has become completely and totally politicized. that's why we're not making any progress down there. they can say, well, trump had it all figured out. no, he didn't. part of the reason why we didn't have the flow is because of covid. if you are going to be able to solve this problem, republicans and democrats have to do it together. border security, legal immigration. right no

that is where john kasich performed really well eight years ago. some of these communities along the connecticut river. and nikki haley seems to be doing pretty well, again, with only 31% of the vote counted there in grafton county. the capital city, concord, that's marinette county, another spot in the state where john kasich did well in 2016. it appears that the kind of vote that she's picking up because she's running dead even there in merrimack county. i'm going to put on the outstanding vote. what we are trying to figure out is what votes still need to be counted. slipping to the purple here, the remaining vote throughout new hampshire. it's a lot. the darker the shade of purple, the more votes that have to be tabulated right now. this hasn't changed since we started talking a couple minutes ago, still at 27%. throughout the entire state of new hampshire, you're going to have the remaining vote coming in and ultimately -- one more time, be patient with me here -- 7.6%, as we evaluate this going forward. what is the margin donald trump wants to

you had john kasich, who took up residence in the state, who came in second.ce ted cruz got 11% of the vote. you can go down the line, jeb bush, marco rubio as well. there are a lot of people here that have kept trump margins well below 50%. nikki haley here, where you looking tonight have strength? suburban voters, upper income voters, voters with college degrees. you are looking in this area right here, obviously john kasich did well in this. area you need to run up a huge vote in this area with an event of voters if you want nikki haley. where is nikki haley been over the last couple days? down in this area, national, the second biggest township in or city in the state. that's a big population. she can run well in that as well as the suburbs around it. one of the critical questions, though, is manchester. this is the largest population center in the state. donald trump won this fairly handily in 2016. nikki haley needs to run even in manchester. you heard omar jimenez earlier this afternoon talking to residents, they're one voter -- how many of those voters

this is where john kasich did his best 8 years ago. i don't want to neglect this.ges the final tally of 11 point separation between trump and haley. that's where we are coming up on midnight. >> bill, if you look back in the time machine to 2016, obviously he was a new candidate. he is outperforming in each of those places tonight, right? >> look at the raw vote number. that's 145,000 raw votes. let me show you a couple of things. democrats. the projection for democrats coming in tonight was 100,000. they are not there yet. about 2000 shy right now. if you go back this time, bernie sanders a lot of competition. 76,000 in 2020. look, trump has a lot to brag about tonight. he's done something we have not seen since 1976. nikki haley has a lot to brag about tonight. she out-performed. but how they go at it in nevada and certainly south carolina. 31 days away. >> yes, it is. >> there will be a board somewhere for you to use. >> you were awesome. >> final thoughts with our panel. big win for the former president trump. nikki haley is hanging in there. our special covera

and former ohio governor, msnbc political analyst john kasich. un in iowa before, even though you skipped iowa. tell me, how much does iowa matter? >> well, i think it matters in this way. if haley can come into second place, and build that momentum, then she can carry that momentum into new hampshire. and new hampshire is a place where upsets can happen. she is within striking distance there, according to the latest polls. if she does not finish in second place and has that momentum running into new hampshire, it's a real problem for her. so i know that the polls are indicating she is slightly in second place now. but as you heard from your other guests, this is a situation of intensity. and the ground game that desantis has been trying to put on, we will see if that can make a little bit of the spread that we have. and you know, there it is, the weather, who knows if it's going to be motivating. i think that the trump voters are going to get out, a lot of his voters in rural iowa, so that is a question as to whether that will keep him down, to a

margaret, or john, or governor kasich with the titles. my respect to both of you as we make sense of it all. i appreciate it. >>> coming up, margaret was just mentioning the desantis collapse. everything from a real mistaken sense of who he would be, to the potential non trump voter, to the epic tech fail! >> i am pleased to introduce to individuals who have done more for [silence] >> so let's see. [inaudible] >> when even elon musk cannot help you take off and you are crashing. double entendre. but also, we have a breakdown coming up next on trump's former lawyer, but joe, with a warning that might surprise you. why he says jackson it could send trump to prison! nd trump to prison d unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley. j.p. morgan wealth management knows

he began his comeback in this state, in new hampshire, he beat john kasich by 20 points. a lot of other people were in the race but this has been a good state for trump on the republican primary side and that is why he is winning and i expect him to win but nikki haley has to shock the world at least 2 come very close but really needs a win. neil: i see the argument it sets up expectations for south carolina. the fact of the matter is, i am always intrigued, one hundred thousand or so vote in iowa, donald trump captured 50,000 of that vote, and we have a little more voting in new hampshire and again, donald trump captured half or more of that. i don't know. we have 340 million people in this country. why are we sowing this up and putting a bow on it? >> that is a good point that nikki haley made, may raise but at some point you have to win. in 2016, ted cruz won states. what state is she going to win? that remains to be seen. i think she will stay in this race no matter what, but when it goes to south carolina and she's not able to defend her home turf, if that is the cas

the pink is where john kasich won, a state he basically took up residence in leading up to the primary. these are the types of places that nikki haley will almost certainly have to win, but not just win, but run up big numbers. those are places with higher education, income levels, suburbs, suburban voters. what's interesting, if you look at the 2020 map, where you see these blue areas in a state that joe biden won fairly handily. there could be undeaf sided voters, ufrn declared voters who decide to vote republican. these are the types of areas that nikki haley could capitalize on as well. it doesn't mean they're democratic voters, but that they're coming from democratic areas. those are counties you'll have to watch, not because they voted for joe biden, but those are places that match up with the demographics that the haley campaign has been pointing to if they want to surprise the entire country tonight, they'll have to run up big numbers and hold down the margins in places like manchester where omar has been, poppy. >> phil, that's exactly what we heard from the vice chair of the

he should remember that being one of those acceptable republicans like john kasich or jeff flake, means being someone conservatives don't like and democrats don't respect. joining me now is ohio senator j.d. vance. i'm a little tongue-tied because of nick saban. i was in the car coming here when i got the news about nick saban retiring. what about chris christie? i'm like what about nick saban? your reaction to this news tonight? >> ohio state guy good news. nick saban is out of here. on the political front, look, chris christie was a guy without a constituency. because whatever his personal grudges against donald trump and, i'm biased i endorsed donald trump. he made a great president. he will do so again. the problem is even if you separate chris christie's feelings about donald trump. there was no constituency open borders, pro-free trade agenda effectively with what chris christie was offering. we have had it with that. 40 years the old guard of the republican party delivered less freedom. less prosperity and security. why would we want to go back? if you want to run in a trump g.o.

nikki haley want to be with the players on the field or does she want to be like, i don't know, john kasichr jeff flake or adam kinzinger and pouting from the stands? now, last week, i warned that she was headed down a path that can effectively end her career inside the g.o.p. >> stomp listening to your high priced campaign consultants who are telling you what they think you want to hear. if she wants a future in the republican party, haley needs to tune out the never trumpers, not embrace them. then she needs to go to her daughters and this will be a toughy and say to them this: look, the party has moved on. it's not 2003 anymore. and we have to move on with it. >> with governor desantis and vivek ramaswamy now behind president trump and others, she has no path forward to the nomination, none. the real clear politics average gives haley only 11.5% nationwide. for home state senator tim scott endorse president trump last week. so whatever happens in new hampshire tomorrow night, president trump will be nominated this summer. other than the billionaires, who is really with haley? oh, sorry,

beat john kasich by 20 points. i would think about the southern part of the state. you have about four counties that make up 70% of the entire voting population in the state. i can just swing you around here, martha. i can show you hillsborough county on the border with massachusetts. a lot of folks moving in from massachusetts. rockingham. the capitol city, concord, merrimack. three of ten. i'm looking at these four counties here throughout the night to give us a sense about how people are voting. quickly while i have you here, i'm going to try this, martha. let's see if it works. on the democratic side, this is going to be interesting. we're going to be able to give our audience a guess as to how many people are writing in joe biden's name, a fox news estimate. we're going to find out whether or not the effort to put his name on the ballot because the dnc said we're not going first in new hampshire, we're going first in south carolina. it's a whole different change this year in the granite state. there's your preview. >> martha: fascinating. i think we're going to

here is what donald trump did a winner over john kasich by 20 points.ruz in third and further down the line bush and rubio and christie who dropped out two weeks ago. late last night rochester, new hampshire, an hour northeast of here near the border with maine we're at a trump rally talking about the people waiting in line for eight or ten hours about the issues that matter to them. check it out. >> come on, guys. what are the issues for you? >> the border. >> immigration is a serious problem. it is destroying the country. we have to close the border. >> energy is a big issue. >> the border, inflation, economy. >> everything. >> saving our country. saving it so that my son has something when he gets older. >> what's the issue for you? >> stock market and the border. >> all right. >> economy mostly for me. >> economy, high gas prices, groceries. everything is expensive. >> what is your issue? >> everything is expensive. i'm a young adult trying to buy a house right now. you know how expensive that is to buy the house? too much. everything is through the

. >> john kasich, is a perfect example, 2016, you go to ohio, win the state where you were the governorshe can't win that, what happens on february 25th? what's the conversation like on february 25? do you wait until super tuesday after losing south carolina. >> if she's got nothing to lose, and she still has buyers, so what. she can keep going for a growing audience, an audience that might grow if every time there's a primary, actually the party isn't coalesced around trump. that's not true. that's a narrative. that's his spend. and by the way, joe biden's spin because it's beneficial to joe biden to get nikki out of the race. he wants to face trump. >> to your point, campaigns can't finance themselves. she's still raising, she can go into super tuesday, no question. but what she did last night was a very kind of balanced approach to not going full light the world on fire, but lay some attacks down that people hadn't been laying in the past. there's one of the other. the rubio, i'm about to lose, so i'm going to say all the things about trump, and kiss the ring and endorse him again, a

john kasich a distant second there. this contest moves to nevada, all right? you see what happened there? marco rubio scores a little bit in nevada. donald trump an easy 22.winner in 2016. then we'll move to south carolina. a lot of stuff will come quickly in february. some of it like is a month away. donald trump had a very good performance again in south carolina from eight years ago. let me try and slip over here a little bit to the calendar just so we can tell folks where we are. and where we're going. last week in des moines, iowa. on tuesday coming up next week it's in new hampshire. and then as we move into february, here is the count. nevada is a mess by the way. we can explain it at the time. republicans hold a primary and caucus and nikki haley is in one and donald trump in the other. more coming up in on explanation. toward the end of the month in february you are in south carolina. so that's what we're looking at. a senior writer national review, harold ford junior is also with us. would you like to lead, my lady? >> dana: i would love to. i can't

he doubled up on john kasich. even more so on ted cruz. if i could take you down memory lane, jeb bush, marco rubio who did well in iowa. that's chris christie. he has dropped from the race. who else we got? the results in the presidential level. he lost the state against hillary clinton by half a point. we'll go through all that in the coming week or so. let me go back to last night quickly and show you what bill melugin was alluding to. trump 51%, a big number there. this orange mark here is johnson county. the university of iowa, iowa city, caitlin clark and the hawkeye women's basketball team doing so well. it's an interesting deal. nikki haley won it by one vote last night. you have that. the rest of the map is red. move across the room here. the full grassley, right? 99 counties, senator chuck grassley been doing it forever. twice when he campaigned in this state, he won every county except for one, and that was johnson county. that was in 2010 and 2016. otherwise he did it. the full grassley he won all 99 counties. >> dana: we'll ha

even john kasich, larry you remember in 2016 won his home state.xury. larry: a big problem for her. vivek helping you out in new hampshire getting libertarian vote out? >> you bet. vivek made a great endorsement of president trump last night. most people supporting vivek are trump supporters in general. now he is on the trump train. you're going to see his team to continue to come on board. those people who liked his message, loved the trump message. we'll see them coming over to the trump campaign. that is going to impact us on election day. vivek was at about five or 6% in new hampshire. i think all of that goes to trump. the poll today clearly indicates donald trump as the runaway favorite. larry: he was just on the show. he was my lead guest on the show. he is a terribly smart guy. i'm glad he ran, corey, i'm glad he finally withdraw. i'm glad he is campaigning with president trump. i think it is very constructive, very positive. corey lewandoski you are as smart as you always were. >> thank you, larry. larry: take care of yourself. coming up h

this is an area that back in 2016, donald trump won, fairly handedly, over john kasich who made the same type of theory of the case, his primary goal in the race. donald trump won this by 12 points. last night, haley won it by nearly 10 points. however, she needed to win it by more. that was the story throughout the course of the evening, is that even where haley was picking up independents, was picking up undeclared, was rolling up democratic kind of heavy towns and cities, it wasn't enough, because of trump's dominance in the republican party. and here's where that gets problematic going forward. we've been talking about how south carolina is up next. that is the place where nikki haley was obviously elected governor. it is a place where brutal campaigns take place. if you want to have somebody that shared haley's theory of the case, john mccain back in 2000 stunning everyone, winning independents 3-1 to upset george w. bush, went to south carolina, was subject to multiple smear campaigns, bush won south carolina, kept that momentum to win the nomination. right now as it currently stan

>>> former obama campaign manager jim messina joins us, and former republican governor of ohio john kasiche to you both, thanks for joining us on this. jim, i want to talk about the primary calendar and how important these two races are, the iowa caucuses and new hampshire, in precedent with history here! yeah, look, yasmin, someone needs to move here and become the presumptive challenger to donald trump. desantis's hope was always that was going to be iowa. that's unlikely. nikki haley is betting heavily on new hampshire. precedence says you've got to move and get some sort of excitement. barack obama obviously surprised everyone and won iowa, and then surjd to the nomination so people are going to be looking closely at whether anyone can slow down the donald trump train. >> is there any possibility here, jim, as we're looking at the polls that he could feasibly not win this nomination if, for instance, nikki haley took new hampshire because she's been surging there? >> i don't think so, yasmin, and the reason i don't think so is because the republicans changed their rules and now have wi

new hampshire, you think about john kasich did well in new hampshire and finished second.dn't win the nomination. at the same time, if nikki haley were to win or be a close second, the pressure will be on a trump to debate her. she's been trying to bait trump into a debate. that could happen after new hampshire, especially because trump wants to finish this in south carolina. haley has a lot of money now. she could be go on for a while. it would be embarrassing if she doesn't do well in her home state. >> neil: thanks, bob. my apologies to mark penn. the failed feed. had nothing to do with the 0 cold. speaking of the cold and the problems and it, rick reichmuth has said we have this storm, the issues. it's not new for that part of the country. i hear you on that. what is coming could be a doozy. it's 25 degrees in des moines. monday, it will be probably minus 25. that's about 50 degrees difference than it is now. 50 degrees from 25 up is 80 degrees. imagine what it feels like when it's 80 and what it feels like when it's 25. take that difference from 25 to minus 25. it is

is now manchester voted in 2016, you look at it on paper, trump runaway, right, 21 points over john kasichseeing the haley surprise tonight, manchester being a 50/50 city. this is rough. if you add it up, kasich vote, rubio, and chris christie, carly fiorina, if you lump them all together, they attract the moderates, a lot of the independents, a lot of the higher income voters, a lot of voters with college degrees, that's the constituency that haley is going after. that's the constituency she did well in iowa. and trump in cruise in 2016, in a separate category, it's roughly -- this is londonderry, but manchester is almost the exact same. it's roughly a 50/50 split, both in londonderry which i was just showing you and manchester. that's a rough metric that i think we're using in each one of these cities and towns. again, trump, it was a very splintered field in 2016, but he did clean up in these places. a lot of these place had significant demographic appeal there and those are the groups that haley is leaning on and needs. >> hey, steve, just a little inside baseball stuff, i'm fascinated

you saw in 2020, john kasich, the former governor of ohio, at the b and c, at the convention, talkinge of john mccain, doing the same thing. they are taking everybody that can along this ride, and the coalition that was built included republicans, moderate republicans, so, this third tourette for biden is very acute, from the left, cornell west, the green party folks, and whoever that no labels party and a putting on the ballot, in at least 13 states at this point. >> let's talk about the who, that. i do need to know a few who are jumping in. >> he left the organization, he wasn't clear, right? he was very coy. you could see it, right? a lot of these folks, politicians have so much, not just ambition, but you have to kind of have a certain mind to think you could be the president of the united states. >> you do -- but there's also -- >> very well. and the reality of it is, do the math. do the math. there is no state that no labels can articulate that they will win those electoral votes. those electoral college votes. this is not an election based on the popularity of the president. it

john kasich. ohio governor seen as the moderate, as the person who could appeal to independent voters in that cycle. and trump crushed him in new hampshire by nearly 20 points. so i think they feel like they have a pretty effective blueprint from the last time he had to run in a primary campaign here. for exactly how to do this again this cycle. >> it's part of why we're not seeing him at so many campaign events is because he's treating these court cases as campaign events. right now, he's in a courtroom in new york city facing e. jean carroll for the second time in her defamation lawsuit. there's this. there's the other court case. the federal court case. there's the immunity case. there's what might be part of the supreme court. there's so much that donald trump is showing up to. also the civil case in new york and trying to use those cameras. do they see those as campaign events? >> to a certain degree, they do. i can go back and forth with different trump campaign staff or allies about whether

jeb bush, marco rubio, chris christie, there was john kasich, so all sorts of different -- carly fiorina, all different candidates running. manchester on paper, you look at the demographics, look at the types of voters voting there and the coalition haley is trying to put together, manchester is a place where she wants to run even tonight. trump won it by 24. she wants to basically be even, maybe down a few points and ideally for her up a few points. that's got to be close. when nashua starts rolling in, she wants to be winning nashua. not by a huge margin. if she's winning by a couple of points, that's doing well for her. the other big city to remember, the state capitol of concord. this one really fits the demographic profile she is going after. she needs to be getting around 60% of the vote in concord. it is running up the number there. there are a number of towns, vaughn was in one of them, a number of towns around the state where if the returns start coming in, and it is like a neck and neck battle trump and haley, it is great news for haley. that would signal she's basically probab

even at the end of 2016,ing i mean, even marco rubio had won three contests, john kasich has won oneou've got to win a couple things and not just have donors who pretend you can. he can look at all these women, katie brit and joni ernst -- maria: great. kellyanne, thank you. >> -- somebody who can complement his agenda. maria: we'll see what happens after south carolina. kellyanne conway, thank you. i'll see you tomorrow onhing "mornings with maria" on fox business. have a great sunday, everybody. presentation looks great. thanks. voya provides tools that help you make the right investment and benefit choices. . .one dynamic duo. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. ♪. howard: it's been a wild ride for the medi

serves their purposes because they want to help biden but, of course, it leaves nikki haley and john kasichit not? >> >> it does. a lot of these folks, they are able to justify completely breaking from their jobs to be informers states men job report the news. they justify all kinds of things they think of themselves as some kind of historic soldiers in little fantasy book. fighting the nazis of normandy. when it actually comes down, we have seen since 2020, these are the people who call for churches to shut down and priests to be arrested. these are the people who separate you from your children and your wives and your parents in the hospital. these are the people who try to keep your children out of school so they think of themselves as part of the resistance and donald trump and all of his supporters are something evil. they use that to break down every sort of ethical guideline there is. at the end of the day, they are cowards. >> laura: just for the record, chris hayes, wasn't a soundbite, it was a quote. he said the feedback i get from viewers is why are you covering trump so much? be

the republicans that were anti-trump that were available to ted cruz and marco rubio and john kasichey're voting in republican primaries anymore. that might be the biggest sort of change in the electorate that we've seen over the last eight years. >> well, you take me to your article because you talk about how trump has basically changed the republican party in his own image. >> he's redefined words like conservative. >> whatever he's for is considered conservative. whatever the definition was in 2014 no longer applies and that's important, as well. >> this is what you write, chuck. you write, quote, if what you saw in iowa is what the gop electorate is going to look like nationally in 2024, and i haven't seen any evidence to the contrary, then the answer is clear. the republican party is trump's party and any challenge to it has come -- has to come from a new party on the outside as opposed to within. it has to come from outside. it can't happen from the inside. >> this is what liz cheney is trying to figure out. what's the last role to play to fix the conservative movement and to r

joining us now is former ohio governor in 2016, presidential candidate john kasich, and democratic pollstermanda dee. governor haley's team saying this morning that trump's scheme blew up in his face. do you agree? >> well, i know a number of the people that are trying to raise money for her. they've got a big event coming up in new york. they could care less about being in the maga camp, whatever the heck that means. so, no, that would probably get them more aggravated and probably will do more. there will be some people that will stay away because they want to have access to trump. there's a lot of people who want to be involved not in making a winner but in being with a winner. it will scare some people away. for those folks who have the big bucks, the people who care a great deal about this, it will be no impact. in fact, it might get them to do a little bit more. and look, her super pac, my understanding is out raised trump in the last quarter. she's doing fine right now with the finances. >> so fernand, nikki haley seems to really be getting under trump's skin. is his ramped up attack

former ohio republican governor john kasich and cornell belcher, democratic strategist and pollster.political analysts. it's never good when you say this is how i aced a cognitive test remembering six things and you mention five. but you know what it's like to be on the campaign trail. give us some insight into the kind of endurance test these men are facing over the next nine months. are they up to it? >> you know, it's not going to be like it was back when i was running because it's going to be kind of a rose garden strategy for both guys. i don't think you're going to see joe biden at all these whistle stops. i think you'll see donald trump doing selective rallies. i don't think it's going to be like what we've seen before. my view is that both of them have to figure out how to, number one, motivate their base, and secondly, how they begin to think about how they're going to get independent voters. i listed three things here for biden. one is, what are you going to do on the border? he should be down there complaining that trump is trying to block a deal. maybe he didn't have it a

she sounds like a pundit, and so if she's trying to galvanize the undeclared voters that powered john kasich's place finish last time, for example, then maybe a more passionate message about the state of our democracy or about the fact that, you know, we're just on the precipice of having this rerun of the 2020 election. you know, let me see the emotion. let me see the fire from her. we're having this segment right now, and it's all process, process. she's not debating. you know, her schedule's lackadaisical. they need -- i'm putting my old coms director hat on. they need to make news. they need to do something to change the nature of this race. she lost by 32 points. she's acting like this is a close race and she can be on cruise control. they got to do something to change the trajectory of the race, and that's what i'm not seeing. >> one of the big conversations you're hearing is whe ump's vp going to be. i thought it was interesting, "politico" reported this. haley's critics haverivaly warned trump that were he to make her first in line to the presidency, he'd effectively be setting himself

even at the end of 2016,ing i mean, even marco rubio had won three contests, john kasich has won oneyou can. he can look at all these women, katie brit and joni ernst -- maria: great. kellyanne, thank you. >> -- somebody who can complement his agenda. maria: we'll see what happens after south carolina. kellyanne conway, thank you. i'll see y from pep in their step to shine in their coats, when people switch their dog's food to the farmer's dog, the effects can seem like magic. but there's no magic involved. (dog bark) it's just smarter, healthier pet food. it's amazing what real food can do. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. space bar reaction porgy and three american troops were killed after

polling shows and like how they defeated another moderate opponent in new hampshire when it was john kasich they beat by nearly 20 points. the campaign is trying to project the idea of republican unity around the president. that's why torw night they'll have three-quarters of his former candidate endorsers th him there, tim ott, j.j. ramberg, doug bergen. this race is functionally over after tuesday, and they believite v it's time to get behind him as the person to take on joe biden. the latest person to join the trump-endorsing bandwagon is nan nancy mace, with whom the former president has a deeply complicated relationship, the two going back and forth after he were reelection campaign when he said negative things about him after january 6th. but she joins a stampede of south carolina officials to endorse donald trump, not nikki haley, their former governor, who i believe is a constituent of nancy mace's. that's all moving in donald trump's direction. even if he has to be in new york tomorrow to temp, i don't think they view that as a challenge. he didn't campaign in iowa on caucus day. c

. >> joining us now, amna nawaz, msnbc contributor and former ohio republican governor john kasich, also you see that debate last night? it seems like they're whittled down to two in iowa for the debate, the former president doing some counterprogramming. they had different styles. >> they certainly did. those two events were an incredible split screen moment last night that really give us insight into where this republican primary race is right now. look, jose, overall last night was arguably a really good night for former president trump because in a race where he is strong and getting stronger, you have this one stage where ambassador haley and governor desantis locked in a brutal head to head in which while they did point out mr. trump's legal troubles and referenced january 6th as a potential vulnerability ahead in the election, most of the time they spent leveling attacks at each other. and they didn't really do much to weaken mr. trump as part of that debate. meanwhile, not too far away on the same night, mr. trump enjoyed a largely supportive crowd in a town hall environment wher

donald trump resolved over john kasich by 20 points, won all 10 counties. tonight as well. on the democratic side, let me click on over here. see this? delegates at stake? zero. now, there is a long explanation for this. but the dnc and joe biden didn't want it. they want -- i'm sorry, they want to start in new hampshire. new hampshire said we are still going to do it. it's our state constitution. >> and that's the reason why you have 21 democrats plus a write-in candidate tonight in new hampshire. now, we're going to be able to get an idea around 8:00 tonight how many wrote in joe biden's name. so, watch that throughout the night. as i wrap this up, bret, so far we are okay, so this is -- this is the ballgame now. trump got 20 delegates in iowa. ron desantis dropped two days ago, picked up 9. nikki haley stands at 8. it's 1215 needed for that nomination. that's the ballgame. you mention history? if donald trump wins in new hampshire tonight, he will be the first republican in a contested primary to go two for two in the first two contests iowa and new hamp