jon ferro preparing for a magnum opus we will see at 9:00. ritholtz joins us come our bloomberg opinion columnist. doug kass was talking up volume as being low. you have written on this including into thousand seven. to be fully clear, i do not believe in volume study. barry, do you? barry: it is a truism that volume often precedes price in a specific stock. you have to look at the context. the context is after a hellish year of lockdown, heading into a long weekend, the economy is reopening. i think anybody who could get away from their terminals, get away from their trading desk has done so. if you're surprised that volume is light this week, you are very easily surprised. tom: if we go back. mike sam totally writing forbearance, now he is over at the death star. the volume today is not the same as when mike santoli was writing forbearance. barry: that is right. you have a giant rise of passive indexing which is a relentless bid. 11% of all u.s. public companies are held by blackrock or vanguard? there is that element. on top of that, you h

no, that's not jon ferro. it's romaine bostick in for mr. ferro.h guy get a four day memorial day weekend? what is that about? romaine:

no, that's not jon ferro. it's romaine bostick in for mr. ferro.ow does a british guy get a four day memorial day weekend? what is that about? romaine: they get all the breaks, tom. tom: we are thrilled remain could -- thrilled romaine could come in. futures up 17, dow futures up 177, all on the backdrop of a budget proposal that did move yields. lisa: do you remember when we used to be worried about uncertainty in washington, d.c.? there still is a lot of uncertainty, as biden presents his spending plan that is expected to come down to $3 trillion. we don't know if it is going to get passed. we don't know how high taxes are going to get increased to. what is being priced in, and does it even matter at this point? tom: i've got to rip up the script here at this point. romaine: i like when you rip up the script, tom. tom: we are fortunate to have you here because jon, lisa and i really don't care, but we know you do want "the close." we have another short squeeze in gamestop and imc. is it different -- and amc. is it different than what we saw earli

jon ferro needs 1.44 to exit across the atlantic. technology from boston tonight exploring the state of their biotech, their education, as the city opens to the success of the boston red sox. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, switch to xfinity mobile and get unlimited with 5g included for $30 on the nations fastest, most reliable network. so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you do

i'm jon ferro.berg. ♪ ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, switch to xfinity mobile and get unlimited with 5g included for $30 on the nations fastest, most reliable network. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. ♪ >> there are structural

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance," with jonathan ferro, tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jon: good morning, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. back to 4200, tom keene come your estimate, one million. tom: my estimate is one million. i won a pool four years ago, and since then -- imagine what the standard error is at this time around. i love what david from dartmouth college just said in the show opening. wages will not explode. that is the question this morning. jon: that is a question for a couple of months' time. the headline number, the range, wide, wide, wide. the low end, 700 k. are we throwing darts this morning, tom? tom: i don't know if we are throwing darts, but i see a very constructive tone in the markets before we get to this key economic data. we could take it any number of ways all the way up to where you speak with secretary walsh later this morning. the jobs data -- i really don't know where to go beneath the headline data. we will make it up at 8:30. jon: lisa, we are going to be looking

jon ferro, is bitcoin a gold or currency equivalent?before we get to bitcoin, can we look at the swiss franc you just put up? tom: yeah. jon: out of the last crisis, people would remember there were a lot of mortgages taken out in eastern europe, in swiss francs, and when we got the adverse move away from what you are denominated and what you are your money in, some of the mortgages got absolutely hammered. i have not looked at that cross for along time. tom: i know you will tear up, but i wanted to bring a tear. rebecca patterson joins us. we are thrilled to have her with us. she is the bridgewater director of investment research but far more is her time on the street bringing holistically together the foreign-exchange market with everything else out there. rebecca, wonderful to have you with us today. on bitcoin, what did we learn this week? i put up there some of the dynamics, the silliness of it being a gold equivalent or coin equivalent. what did we learn? rebecca: i think we got reaffirmation that it is a speculative asset and sti

i believe a property of jon ferro is coming up. paul sweeney and i will join you on radio. ning. ♪ >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. from a beautiful new york with equities up .6% on the s&p 500, we begin with the big issue. struggling to gauge the incoming data. >> three opening trade is accelerating. >> fears have dissipated. >> you are at post-pandemic. >> removing the masks is symptomatic of that. >> we are transitioning from a spring bloom to a summer boom. >> there are some nuances. >> we have pent-up demand. >> meaningful concern about inflation. >> huge anxiety about inflation. >>

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. our attention this morning very much on europe with a 10 year in germany inching back towards zero and an italian 10 year climbing to a tent -- for a tenth straight date. tom: the yield space is tangible and you see it within germany. i did this 14, 15 months ago and got yelled at. they did not want me to have a mask on tv so i am going to put the mask on right now. everyone in new york city is dealing with, when do you take this thing off? i put it on. jonathan: just to demonstrate. super helpful. tom: i just put the mask on at radio. look at the headline, european union finds agreement for fully vaccinated travelers. that's linked directly to the markets. jonathan: that's according to afp this morning. we still have to work out what the vaccination certification looks like to get into europe, and whether the united states will reciprocate. because for the big airlines are now, what they want to see reopen and big-time reopen is the london to new york corridor. that has ceased up in

lisa: if this is used as a template, and jon ferro has been talking about this a lot, as far as whatops are and how categories -- what the cutoffs are and how categories will be defined. for the american rescue plan it was $160,000 for couples filing jointly and $80,000 for an individual. is that the annual salary you expect to be the basis of annual plans later this year from the biden administration? heather: all of this is still a work in progress. certainly that is a starting place. that is what we are already doing. these decisions will be negotiated, but it is important to keep in mind that all kinds of families need help when they have kids. we know families experience this extra burden. this is the port that will help them. one of the things that is exciting is scholars estimate it will have a significant reduction in child poverty, in particular child poverty for black and latino children. interesting to see how that works. it is an important policy for all of those families who need it. lisa: as someone who has raised two boys, i understand. you know what a jungle that is a

look for that property from jon ferro friday afternoon.ight now we've got the perfect guest to get us started in this hour. seema shah joins us from principal global investors. what i love is your study of the linkage between equity and debt, the idea of what the stock market is going to do versus what fixed income is going to do. described that linkage right now. seema: you have been talking about that earlier today. the equity market is so strong at the moment. cause for concern that we are not going to get the continued economic surprises which may keep pushing the market up as much as we have seen recently, but it is looking really strong out there. you've got bond yields around the one dollar 50 since level. it just doesn't seem to be lining up. to me, the main fact which is holding bond yields down is still the expectation that the fed is going to stay on hold. but at some point, i think we are all in agreement that bond yields are on their way up this year. it is just the speed at which they are going to move. that is going to be a

. ♪ ♪ jon: i'm jonathan ferro, this is "bloomberg real yield."e for when we kick things off in the united states. amazon's headlining supply selling $18.5 billion of notes. just 10 basis points equivalent of treasury. i nafta take the markets to new records. first half of supply about $220 billion, and inflation nerves weighing on sovereign, a softer 30 year treasury auction. matt horn -- back with us is matt hornbech, collin martin, and troy gayeski. troy, not enough conversation on europe. the italian 10 years cleaning through 1%. just want to know how you are gauging in the european bond market? troy: there is still more uncertainty on the recovery there, and you have the never ending outcomes of the nations like italy as a whole. you and i have talked about this many times over the years where, from an investing standpoint, europe also this of -- always disappoints, yet the pandemic is as well. you see more divergence, sovereign bond yields, then you have seen in quite some time as italy in particular will need more and more fiscal help becau

on the bond market, i thought jon ferro was dead on about 1.64%, rounded up 1.65%. basis point move. it seems contained. ira jersey is our expert on bloomberg indulgence on the dynamics of full faith and credit. jason, what does it say no that the 10 year seem somewhat -- what does it signal -- ira, what does it signal that the 10 year seem somewhat contained? ira: i think it is contained because everyone knows this number will be volatile. it was how big was the bounce back going to be given the base effect? when you look at the dynamics of what is causing that three basis point selloff in the 10 year, it is coming mostly from breakevens. mainly people thinking inflation will be higher. now approaching 2.6% inflation expectations over the next 10 years. that would be not unprecedented but you have to go back to the early 1990's to get that kind of year on year inflation for several years. i think the market is pricing for this, they're pricing more. we are probably nearing fully priced at some point in the near future. tom: i was doing a chart on the bloomberg as y

tom: i've got to go to my colleague jon ferro. know i am riveted on "ninety-day fiance" by brandon and julia. i find them to be the most interesting couple on "ninety-day fiance." jonathan: which couple are they? tom: they are really trying to stay together, unlike the rest of those. jonathan: which one went to ecuador? was that program -- was that that program? tom: that wasn't brandon and julia. can you see "ninety-day fiance" dovetailed with hbo max, "game of thrones" stuff? jonathan: you and i both watch a bit of trash now and then. what i struggle with right now, i don't think the consumer is winning. we have been told the consumer is winning because tv has never been so good, content production is fantastic. but when you look at your bill, it must be close to $200 for people now. you're looking at $60, $70 conservatively for an ok broadband connection. on top of that, if you want live tv, $50, $60. i know you canceled youtube tv. you're getting close to $200 for a lot of people. that's a lot of money. when you wake up at the

we go to four digits for jon ferro. mario parker joins us out of the white house this morning. real simple. you can look over from where you are to where john hey was near the hay adams hotel. mr. hey could escape to new hampshire -- mr. hay could escape to new hampshire when it was this hot. how did they escape this infrastructure bill? mario: there's really no escape these days. it is front and center here in washington, d.c. republicans and democrats are both engaged which is a positive sign of bipartisanship in an otherwise gridlocked d.c. that we have seen the last couple of years. jonathan: are we going to get -- tom: are we going to get anything done in june? do we get action the summer? mario: well, senator roger wicker from mississippi is slated to, with other republicans, give the latest counterproposal to joe biden's plan tomorrow. the white house and republicans alike have indicated that this week is a crucial one, so depending on what we see come out of the counterproposal tomorrow, they may request a meeting with president biden. chuck schumer has said the democra

tom: what i can agree with, jon ferro is looking at 42 charts on the bloomberg terminal, jobless claimsre a really big deal. they are wonderfully elegant, and the trend of fewer claims across america, we see that data in 28 minutes. jonathan: here's the key line from those fed minutes yesterday. "if the economy continues to make rapid progress towards the committee's goals." since that particular meeting, can we say the economy has continued to make rapid progress toward the committee's goals. payrolls would scream no. far more nuanced than just a clean, rapid move through a recovery. tom: the trend looking at 450 thousand, this is weekly data, so that is a trend. anything under 450,000 dollars would be a constructive shot. jonathan: trend is good. things are getting better. the fed's view is that we cut to take some time to work these kinks out. we've got this huge mismatch, and with time we will work this out. yes, higher prices might solve some issues elsewhere. the issues around chip shortages , issues around car rental prices, airfares, all of those things, yes, there are scopes to

tom: one reason to stay tuned, and in the 9:00 hour, look for "the open" today with jon ferro.han: thank you. on radio, on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ♪ jonathan: 60 minutes away from a cpi report in the united states of america. live on tv and radio, here's the price action going into that. the sb down 17. we did plant -- the s&p 500 down 17. small caps underperforming. bmo upgrading things on the s&p to 40 have hundred from 4200 -- to 4500 from 4200. jonathan golub looking for 4600 on the s&p. with that, an upgrade to energy and a downgrade to staples. others are bullish staples. they believe that is where the pricing power is. he suggests that the higher commodity prices come along energy, the higher input costs for staples, that is going to weigh on things. switch up the board. yesterday was fascinating. when equities moved badly, there were inflation fears. energy down 2.5%. banks down 1.3%. if i showed you that yesterday morning, i think we would have been talking about inflation fears. why was the nasdaq whipping back? tom: i think there's a bull component pu

jonathan: did you see jon ferro in a vw rabbit? [laughter] carl weinberg is watching. dr.lue-collar workers can't work from home. bill dudley told me that decades ago at goldman sachs. jonathan: mike, thank you. mike mcglone of bloomberg intelligence. that final point is a worthy one. can we also tell the audience that you and i don't drive? neither of us have a drivers license. i think some people know that already. tom: there is a zip code centered thing here. jonathan: it is very much a city where you don't need to drive. tom: but we forget, it is a big nation. with four dollars, five dollars a gallon, it is going to be a political issue. jonathan: what do you make of the energy transition issue, that we are taking a cyclical signal from some of these commodity markets in a way that has maybe been distorted now? tom: i am going to listen to guys like currie and the rest. i want to hear what dan juergen says on my book of the year last year, "the new era." jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: did we cover

michael: let me ask you the question jon ferro was posing. because of the generous unemployment benefits or is there something else going on? pres. kashkari: we hear all of the same anecdotes. as i was checking my emails i was listening and trying to process the report, to your conversation. i think it is all of the things you talked about. there are people who are on the sidelines are getting generous unemployment and they say we know this will expire in three or four months, and they are individually saying we think the job market will be strong in three or four months, so why don't i wait? we know the dynamic is there. we know there are massive childcare shortages that are holding back families from fully reentering the workforce. that is disproportionately affecting women. there are still people who are nervous about the virus, who may be have not been vaccinated or need to get back onto mass transit to get to their jobs. they are nervous about getting onto a crowded bus or a crowded subway. there are a number of factors. most of these fa

jon ferro, i look at the debate we got in the equity markets right now, and it is what everyone is lookingt. i think we forget it is expecting out six months, nine months, your out. -- nine months, a year out. jonathan: how big is that deceleration? we are still working our way through so many distortions, and the way i view this economy is that it is like holding a beach ball beneath the surface. this was a mandated recession. now the policy has changed. the beach ball is surging to the surface again and moving even higher. we've got to look at the return to trend growth. you know how many people come on the show and talk about the return to normal? what is normal? tom: it's true. that is better said about february pre-pandemic. was that normal? we really don't know, in hindsight of this natural disaster. $70 a barrel, good morning. jonathan: crude doing ok. the beauty i, $60 handle -- sick wti -- wti, $66 handle. we bounce back about 0.4% on the s&p, 0.6% on the nasdaq. tom: leon cooperman joins us, with decades of experience on wall street. leon cooperman with omega, and their family of

jon: good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. here's the tuesday morning price action.ow continues on the equity 500 -- on the s&p 500. the nasdaq 100 up 65, we advance .5%. yields breaking down through 1.6 -- one pointing zero. the dollar weaker, -- 1.60. the dollar weaker. tom: everything on the screen, the gets my attention. a -0.88 is not where we were yesterday, is it? jon: worth keeping an eye on. another i, and interview going on with the germans finance minister taking base right now area german finance minister singh we are angry about the action by belarus. the question on the commercial relationship between germany and russia, and the german finance minister saying the nord stream 2 project is a private project almost complete. that is where there is real tension between germany and the allies, including the united states and relationship, ongoing commercial relationship with russia. tom: it's the lairs of sanctions and -- layers of sanctions. joining us now is marty schenker. marty, you and i saw sanctions worked in south africa, and boy did they work. a dif

jon: the president of the united states there on corporate taxes. from new york city this morning, alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. action on this nuance tuesday. lisa: [laughter] jon: equity futures down three. we are off by almost .1%. euro-dollar just about holding on to 1.20. the euro had a break of that level a couple hours ago for the first time since late april. in the bond market, yields were lower at an .60 off the back of a surprise from the i-seven. -- i seven. just wrap things out, wti 65 handle, there we go, up by 1.74%. $65 and $.60 -- 65 $.60 -- $65.06. tom: a stunning result out of the texas sixth congressional district south of dallas, south of fort worth. it is simple, the republicans won and the democrats lost. marty schenker joins us, editor in large -- at in charge of all nuance. we are heading for gridlock in 2022. what does that mean for president biden in 2021? marty: it means he will have to try to figure out how he forms a coalition of his base to get his agenda through. we have a story that says this could drag out well into next year. jon: that's to the benefit -- tom: that is to the ben

jon: that was the senator from north dakota. good morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.y market down nine on the s&p 500, we decline .2%. you will have a ton of data in minutes, and going into yields unchanged, but about half a basis point. euro-dollar holding onto 1.22 here. around about .1%. we advance a little bit stronger euro in the mix. tom: you are better at this. you are trying to do a data check. i say nothing has changed in 24 hours. jon: thank you, tom. tom: we mentioned renminbi moving. jon: is that a compliment? [laughter] tom: i really want to point out folks, the vix is under. seriously closing yesterday and a solid under 18. jon: it is a reflection of what has been going on, isn't it? tom: yeah, but it is a real shift to a resume we have not seen in months and months. jon: agreed. tom: right now in washington, thrilled that jack fitzpatrick could stop by with bloomberg government. jack, i want to talk about the core knowledge here of our political game as we sought yesterday, everybody fascinated by the backdrops of these fancy ceos, and bologna. what is

jon. jonathan: give me a break. from new york city this morning, good morning. lisa abramowicz, tom keene. i'm jonathan ferro. your cooking. he's actually not bad. lisa: he's really good. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it. give the aerotrainer a shot. pain and stress is the only thing you have to lose. get it and get it now. your body will thank you. (announcer) find

jon cratered. jonathan: just keep talking. the s&p is up. the yield is unchanged. euro-dollar pushing higher. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro.is "bloomberg." ♪ >> president biden says a corporate tax hike does not have to be exactly as much as he wants. the president indicated he's filling to compromise on one of the key features of his infrastructure and jobs proposal. senator joe manchin says he can't go for the proposing increase from 21% to 28, but could support a 25% corporate rate. it is prime minister boris johnson made a final push for today's super thursday elections. a major test of support for his leadership and the ruling conservative particles of the pandemic forced one set of local elections to be delayed by year. voting will be held today. amongst the races, local councils for scottish and welsh parliaments and the mayor of london. uber says the cost of recruiting drivers will have an impact on earnings in the second quarter. that is one more in front the company's goal to turn off a by the end of the year. uber expects incentives to get drivers back on the road will reduce the rate the company takes from fare