jonathan: it looks fantastic. we have to talk about earth day as well, the president set to announce new targets for the united states to achieve 52% reduction from 2005 levels. a renewed effort. lisa: a renewed effort also to lead in this front. that is a key question. how will the u.s. lead on this front following the presidency? also interesting to see how much money they will put behind this. how much can you put behind this if you don't have bipartisan support? jonathan: three big stories for us through this thursday morning. let's get to the price action. tom keene fired up this morning. yield unchanged at 156. just a little bit of euro strength going into the ecb meeting later this morning. lisa: a lot of uncertainty. we get that ecb rate decision followed at 8:30 eastern time by christine lagarde's press conference. the key question will be after june, what happens? will the ecb continue after june? how much inflation will they tolerate? and what bonds will they be buying? these are all some of the questio

jonathan: from new york city this morning, good monday morning. i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ >> in india, coronavirus infections hitting record highs. the government reported 352,000 new cases. crowded hospitals are turning away patients because they are running out of oxygen and beds. european union is set to allow american tourists to visit this summer if they have been vaccinated. the president of the european commission tells the new york times americans need vaccines approved. the fed is expected to taper its bond buying program under the fourth quarter. the result is a hawkish shift from march when more economists thought tapering would happen next year. the world's largest digital currency -- rising on most 10%. china's government -- beijing is becoming increasingly concerned over the growing influence of tech companies such as alibaba. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we have penciled in 7% or 8% growth

jonathan f: jonathan tycw= ofe -- donovan -- jonathan tyce of bloomberg intelligence, thank you. it just comes up to how do you compete away from this easy krach we see right now, which is everyone going into wealth management. who is not going into wealth management? jonathan f: the issue we've brought up repeatedly, what i hear from you is that using this is an attitude problem. tom: absolutely, 100%. sorry, it is cultural, it is attitude. they are comfortable doing what they are doing, and you get into trouble. when does that change, and why hasn't that changed? david haro at credit suisse has been waiting for that to change for a long time. tom: we had the conversations at davos, people looking for a change, whether it is cross-border or within nations, and it doesn't happen. there's not enough fortises going on. lisa: there's a tension here. how do you make money? how much risk do you take in order to do so without necessarily suffering the consequences? this tension keeps getting borne out and will do so if they just want to make more money. jonathan: i remember a line from

jonathan: how's that working out? tom: the new look at apple, take the verizon media phrase, connect people to their passions, and throw it over to apple. those are the winners, losers in this derby. jonathan: one company is doing it, the other company isn't. equities at all-time highs on the s&p 500, 40 do hundred. we had -- 4200. we advanced 0.7%. yields higher on tens to 1.6504%. a big call out of goldman we will touch a bit later on on the commodity market. lisa: it is a boom market. perhaps mcdonald's is connecting people to crispy chicken sandwiches, which evidently was one of the reasons why they said comp sales were so good. today we are looking not just towards crispy chicken sandwiches, but also initial jobless claims are expected to come down. i still wonder why they are not coming down faster. the expectation is for about 530,000 new jobless claims. still a lot of people getting benefits. what is going to make this number go down to really as -- go down materially as the world reopens and the summertime em

jonathan: you've made it. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene taking a long weekend. we have made it to the end of the week. retail sales and a ton of bank earnings. lisa, what stood out for you this week? lisa: the week is not over. we still have plenty left. bank earnings highlighting the lack of loan demand. why? is that a sign of weaker forward look to the economy or a sign of how much cash consumers and corporations have after incredible stimulus programs? jonathan: overwhelmingly story is the latter. consumers, businesses flushed with cash. it's a transition as we pair down to savings rate that's economy reopens. we start to spend again. what does the demand look like? john cassidy of said we should see some sim improvement. for me, at least is the data and how we've responded to that data. so not just the data itself, how markets have reacted to it. c.p.i

jonathan: coming up, it :00 a.m. eastern time, we will be catching up with andrew sheets, morgan stanley chief process -- morgan stanley chief cross asset strategist. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden will pledge to cut u.s. greenhouse gas emissions in half 2030. that nearly doubles the commitment made under former president obama that was later scrapped by former president trump. president biden welcome being -- biden will convene 40 world leaders. more fallout from the implosion of a kinko's capital -- of archegos capital. the swiss regulator is asked credit suisse to add more than $2 billion of capital. we talked with credit suisse ceo thomas gottstein. >> we are all responsible for what happened. it is now our job to take credit suisse to the next level. as i said, we have a lot of good elements in this first quarter we can build on, and together with the board of directors, we are doi

jonathan: jonathan: coming up, julian emanuel l. -- julian emanuel. the family ate plan down in d.c.. no interest in arguing about the dow this morning. here we go, s&p 500, futures up three. tom: jonathan ferro faces formal probe over apartment refurbishment. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i'm rick took a gupta -- i'm ritika gupta. president biden will unveil a plan for childcare and families that will be paid for by the largest tax hike on wealthy americans in a decade. the child tax credit would be extended, meanwhile fund managers would lose their carried interest tax provision and the top tax rate for individuals would go back to 39.6%. fed chair jerome powell is expected to maintain aggressive support for the economy. fed policymakers wrap up a two day meeting today. they are said to hold interest rates near zero. they are expected to repeat a pledge to keep buying bonds at the current rate of $120 billion a month. a grim milestone for india, the number of deaths from coronavirus went over 200,000. an increase in inf

jonathan: equities up .7%. lisa abramowicz, tom keene, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg.itika: president biden is proclaiming america has turned the corner on the pandemic and is on the move again. he promised tax hikes on the wealthy to pay for ambitious plans to spend trillions on education, childcare, and other democratic priorities. he says his infrastructure proposal will a jobs maker for those without college degrees, those who largely supported donald trump. president biden also called on congress to pass stricter gun safety laws in response to recent mass shootings in the u.s. he asked lawmakers to pass three house approved measures. he also pushed for a ban on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. a surge in coronavirus cases early in the year detert many people from -- deterred many people from seeking medical care. sales of blockbuster cancer therapy came up short. caterpillar reported first-quarter earnings that beat estimates. the world's biggest maker of mining and construction system says rebound in the economy drove demand for its signature yellow m

jonathan: nice.xt chime) (text chime) (text chime) (sighs) (text chime) (chuckles) (text chime) it's the biggest week in television. watchathon week is your chance to finally watch shows you missed for free. now you get to talk about them with your friends, no matter what time it is. say "watchathon" into your voice remote and watch for free jonathan: from new york, live on tv and radio, for our audience worldwide, here's the price this monday morning. futures negative on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq, we come in about 0.3%. tesla after the close wednesday, apple thursday. speaking of wednesday, chairman paolo the federal reserve at a news conference. then on wednesday, the president addressing congress. in the bond market, everybody in fixed income all believe that the fed, the ecb make a move when they put out the forecast, but this is a central bank deemphasizing forecasts. so why wait for the forecast if you are no longer dependent on the forecast? just something to think about. tom: i got confused.

jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. of the month is the nasdaq comeback. the story of the session something a little bit different. nasdaq futures coming in about a quarter of 1%. the russell outperforming on a relative basis. we switch up the board, is the story of the month. the nasdaq with massive outperformance over the last month. this over the last 30 days. you will see the nasdaq outperformance, up by 5.8%. tom: nice board. nice board. jonathan: you take it to the march 8 low, we ripped about 100 percentage points. here's the story for me. switch up the board again. 2's, 10's, and 30's. we rallied and sold off in the bond market on anticipation of better economic data. as we start to realize that data, we start to stall a little bit. it is interesting just to see what is happening right now. 10 year yields up by the five basis points. on the bottom of the average of the last 30 days or so on the 10 year. on the 30 year, up three or four basis points to 2.34. what is going to be the source of upside surprise? wher

jonathan: here comes the boom. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm jonathan ferro. bank earnings top of mind. tom: what was that about? jonathan: retail sales a couple of hours away. tom: bank of america out a little bit early. we will get to it in a moment. retail sales is front and center and that 70% of our american economy and a boom economy. how much did retail sales boom? i will go to control group when we see those numbers. jonathan: big expectations. brian moynihan has something to say. consumers flush with cash. businesses flush with cash. that is the headline story in america. tom: go right back to asset size. the two banks together, jp morgan and bank of america are $6.5 trillion in assets. granted, there's a lot of noise but that is indicative of the amount of money, the amount of stuff that is out there for this american economy to drive forward. jonathan: city earnings in couple of hours. lisa, retail sales. lisa: that is paired with all of the cash on the sidelines, these cash deposit of counts. -- icons. people are spending it now. after the stimulus

jonathan: for what, the nasdaq? tom: for germany. jonathan: totally agree.nflection point for europe. really important moment. just like your spurs over the weekend against manchester united. do you want to do that right now, or should we move on? let's move on. lisa: arsenal won, tots lost just want to throw that out there. not having to do was football, we've got bill dudley, the former u.s. fed president, joining us at about 90 minutes, talking about bank regulation at a time when banks have really been the stalwart of the financial system coming out of the pandemic, heading into earnings talking about profits at a time when there is still a k-shaped recovery. then i 1:00 p.m., i am very interested to see the demand for the $38 billion sale of treasury notes. how much more in demand, how much domestic demand? how much are investors going to signal where yields are going to go? 10 years tend to be pretty calm. very interested to see if there is any bipartisanship on capitol hill. there is a bipartisan congressional meeting with president biden and vice pre

jonathan: michael nova gratz there.rning, alongside with tom keene and lisa abramovitz payment i'm jonathan ferro. on the s&p 500, all-time highs, four straight weeks of gains. we are down about a quarter of 1% this monday. in the bond market, the yield unchanged at 1.58. the fx market, dollar weakness, euro-dollar, 1.2033. in the commodity market, 63 handle on wti. down about .2%. crypto and crypto assets getting hammered through the weekend has got to be the story. tom: i take issue with hammered. certainly made news over the weekend. the chart is ugly but i would say contained within the home on the range. michael mcglone has been brilliant in providing us analysis. i don't want to talk about 63,000, 53000 and that. the fact is, dogecoin was invented by two ibm engineers. it is almost a tulip blulb. what does this signal to the rest of the legitimate crypto market? michael: dogecoin is just fun. tom: how many people will lose money by just having fun? michael: if you put in a couple hundred dollars, dear your friends

jonathan: good morning to you. i'm jonathan ferro alongside lisa abramowicz.y markets, all-time highs. in the bond markets, yields not even in. a break of 160 in yesterday's session. this friday at a record high, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: there has been another mass shooting in the u.s. in indianapolis where a gunman opened fire last night at the fedex facility near an airport. eight people were killed and four were wounded. it is not known if the gunman was an employee at fedex. it will be all about china today when president biden meets with japan's prime minister. this will be his first meeting with a foreign leader since taking office. china's shadow it will loom a large almost every topic. they are expected to discuss taiwan and supply chains among other issues. -- is trying to -- iranians are demanding the u.s. state what sanctions it would lift in negotiations to revive the broken agreement. they describe what they would do to scale back nuclear activity. congressional democrats have introduced a bill to expand justices on the u.s. supreme court from

jonathan: i imagine that's continued this morning, too. lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro.om keene back with us monday morning. tomorrow is set to be a good one. ignore the clouds. it gets better from here, i hope. i'm 23 on the s&p 500, off by 0.6% -- down 23 on the s&p 500, off by 0.6%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: by september or october, president biden is likely to see some version of his $4 trillion economic plan passed in congress. the president has two major tasks. he has to keep various democratic factions from splintering the party and keep fending off republican attempts to portray the plan as radical. democrats can use senate rules to bypass republican opposition to most of the plan. the euro area economy slid into a double-dip recession at the start of the year. strict coronavirus lockdowns kept businesses closed and consumers were reluctant to spend. output in the 19 nation euro area was down 0.6% in the first quarter. it fell nearly three times that rate in germany. meanwhile, the u.s. posted annualized growth of 6.4%. in israel, a stampede at a jewish religi

jonathan: y -- jay, thank you.p morgan really crushing it on the investment banking side of things for the quarter. going forward, it is about the outlook, how they leverage this better economy in the months and quarters to come. tom: you've got to have loan demand. this is something i am really old-school on. in the media, everyone is focused on loan growth, loan supply, money supply. forget about it. do they want the loans is hugely important, and they are not. maybe that is going to change in the next 90 days. jonathan: sonali is going to be with us, breaking down these numbers. i would love to hear from you ahead of goldman sachs' numbers. sonali: i am looking for them to beat shibu morgan in equities trading. that is the number we want to balk for. we want to watch them keep pace with fixed income trading as well because it is the name of the game. tom: what is the deal with hamptons real estate? i mean, come on. i'm serious, lisa. this is a moneymaking jumper not -- moneymaking juggernaut. what does it do in

jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equities are down.ond markets has got a small bid. euro is stronger. this is unreal. [laughter] from new york city, beautiful new york city, down 41 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. day two of deliberations in the minneapolis murder trial that sparked a nationwide debate over police use of force. jerry is defying the fate on derek chauvin, the former police officer accused of killing a black man, george floyd, during an arrest. prosecutors say he violated department policy. chauvin's lawyer says the video does not tell the whole story. tobacco stocks plunged after a report that the biden adminstration is considering a move to lower the nicotine content of cigarettes to make them nonaddictive. marlborough's producer altria lost $6 billion in value yesterday. in congress, a rare show of bipartisan support for a piece of legislation. the house easily passed a bill that would give state authorized marijuana businesses easier access to banking services. under

jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm jonathan ferro. futures up about 14 points. good to start with the infrastructure push, unraveling a little bit in d.c. tom: the back story, that is not going to happen. you know that debt is not going to come on. it is a nonstarter and critically it is a group effort is a nonstarter. there may be different reasons it is a nonstarter, but there are two new parts of washington saying this is not going to work. jonathan: lester was senator manchin. -- let's start was senator manchin. time to usher in a new era of bipartisanship. he does not want to go it alone. tom: he also wants to get reelected and maybe keep a democratic house as well. i go back to the reality of the 2022 election and that is the calculus of both sides of the aisle, how do you get to november of next year? jonathan: what did i miss? tom: where you want to begin? lisa: are you trying to rub it in? jonathan: the u.s. 10 year. lisa: this is your way of saying "i missed absolutely nothing." i do want to weigh in on the infrastructure pl

jonathan: i prefer the word execution.isa: i do think i should be the official correspondent for the right-hand podium on "surveillance." jonathan: what does that mean? lisa: i am just trying to come up with a good title. jonathan: for your podium? i think it would get pretty confusing. lisa: all right. how about that price action? jonathan: i thing i know where you're going. we'll get there in a second. the equity market down 21 on the s&p 500, pulling back from all-time highs. i know we are talking about a market that hasn't responded to better numbers. we are talking about apple not responding. alphabet dipped. amazon not responding in a big way. other companies have. but for the broader market this week, it has been a slight lift. the s&p 500, 4182. over the month it has been a really decent month of gains, up by more than 6% coming into the friday session. in the fx market, euro-dollar $1.2082. now we will get to what lisa was talking about, long titles. joseph quinlan has one. [laughter] the bond market rallied on go

jonathan: lisa abramowicz, tom keene, jonathan ferro. coming up, jack ablin, looking forward to that. the s&p 500 up .1%. good morning. up one basis point on the 10 year. euro-dollar, 120.70. crude positive .8%. it is going to be ok, tom. a beautiful new york city. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, take the savings challenge at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings. or visit and xfinity store to learn how our switch squad makes it easy to switch and save hundreds. so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't

jonathan: retail sales 90 minutes away. for new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up nicely on the s&p. the s&p 500 advancing 0.5%. a big number expect a little bit later this morning. tom: it is the way there is green on the screen with the equity markets, truly across the board, and frankly, i very traditional format. maybe that is the banks leading the way off of what we saw with america. the vix isn't giving me that market. the vix at 16.85 is feeling like under 16, maybe we will see that as we move to citigroup and beyond. jonathan: before we get there, we need to discuss the federal reserve and how that recalibrate over the next couple of meetings. tom: really glad you brought this up. it is like we are zoned in together. we will talk to mark howard about this. pros don't look to the next fed meeting. they came out the meetings afterwards. mr. howard and others are

jonathan: earnings begins right now. from new york city and's, good morning braided this is -- good morning. equity futures positive 1/10 of 1% on the s&p 500. tom: bank earnings have to be front and center. the first picture of his earnings season. the print on this, i know you had a ticket for $65,000 on bitcoin. jonathan: many people wish they had a buy ticket. looking at coinbase right now. tom: i don't really pray i just want to aggravate you. [laughter] tom: repeat coinbase with me. lisa: i'm going to let you hang there. this is relevant. let's pair these two. tom: john. 8000 shares. -- john got 8000 shares. lisa: having to do with some of the fintech and some of the emerging players. work with me here. this is going to be relevant to have j.p. morgan and goldman sachs and wells fargo indicate what their future prospects are. tom: i don't agree. jonathan: i don't know what's going on with either of you. tom: j.p. morgan and goldman sachs, which one measures you the most. jonathan: let's go straight to the price act

jonathan: tom feels seen.s literally every parent out there, the kids reshaping their feeling for screens. that goes to a bigger bill, and apple reaps the benefit. jonathan: what do you make of these return to work plans from the various banks, slowly starting to drip out ahead of the summer? lisa: the bifurcation between the u.s. and european banks i find fascinating. european banks saying work from home is the new reality, and cutting office space. jonathan: what i love about that is the last bit. we are going to do this for you, we are going to cut the office space. in other words, the european banks are going to cut costs, but we are doing this for you. of course. tom: where are we going to be in a year? jonathan: i think we are going to be more surprised about how quickly things move back to normal. tom: i am in that camp. lisa: i would agree as welllisa: . jonathan: dan skelly, morgan stanley, as we take a moment to agree on something. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> if things normalize, we are goin

jonathan: point taken. i'm sure the federal reserve chairman would like to be called boring at this point. tom: no question about that. his goal is to get through this without any uproar. we will have to see. we will monitor that very closely today in the 12:00 hour. right now, gabriella santos of jp morgan -- i've said before, she speaks 14 languages. is mandarin one of them? gabriela: i'm working on that one. so far, i'm focused on romance languages. tom: get to work, you are slacking. mr. diamond did address china. can you -- you address it forcefully in your notes that people are saying, what is the strategic strategy to invest in china? are you long china out three years? gabriela: absolutely. and our conversations, we have really moved on from talking about the twists and turns of the pandemic and have started to focus on structural investment themes. china comes up time and time again. it is really about the growth of -- markets. in terms of investing, it has gone from being a tactical allocation bas

jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro up your the nasdaq back in a bige last several way -- weeks. the equity market now down eight in the s&p, down 2/10 of 1%. coming up, david kotok. from new york city, good morning as we kick off a brand-new trading week. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me wan

jonathan: always an excuse to drink. [laughter] i've got a good friend with a bowtie who's in bed drinking, watching this. i'm sure he's enjoying a beverage of his choice, let me tell you. let's get to the price action this friday morning. wrapping up a really long week for many of you on wall street you'd we've had the bank earnings, the data, cpi, retail sales at well. at times today, i can hardly speak. equity futures on the s&p 500 up by about 0.2%. to the bond market we go. at 1.5 640% on tens, yields again -- at 1.5640% on tens, yields again, the data and how this bond market has responded to it. lisa: this idea that all of the cash in bank accounts, which is been the main story coming out of these earnings, has been going into assets, including bonds. what happens when people withdraw that to spend it? what happens to rates? are we going to get this boom economy with an even higher yield? this idea of people using cash in the real world rather than financial markets, what the implications of that will be. jonathan

jonathan: from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.rs to go. coming up, mike wilson, morgan stanley chief u.s. equity strategist. lisa: until what? jonathan: this is my personal account. [laughter] tom: the city is cold and empty. no one is around to judge me. jonathan: that's a good song, isn't it? that's what i was up for, you singing. equities up on the nasdaq. this is bloomberg. ♪ want your workout to be easier, more effective, and more convenient? then you should try aerotrainer by golo. the new full body workout that you can do at home or anywhere. it's great for planks, squats, core, and glutes. you'll strengthen and tone muscles, relieve back pain, and reduce stress. it's also great for yoga and pilates. get noticeable results in just ten minutes a day. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to workout. look at me. it works 100%. (host) all of this is a $300 value, but through this special offer, you can get the entire aerotrainer system for just four easy payments of $19.95. and if you order today, we'll also include free shipping.

jonathan: i don't think so.ese fines are real, how much do they have to pay to unravel this? are they the ones that have to pay, or does everyone have to pay? tom: at the apple show last night, romaine bostick and i were talking about it, i think remain looks good with a pink imac. jonathan: i'll stick with blue. romaine, take the floor. it's yours. romaine: apple shares not doing a lot this morning. netflix down 8.5%. we've been talking about it all morning, about lower subscriber growth in q1 and the forecast for q2. you have a growth stock that is not quite growing, but a balance sheet that is improving. keep in mind, net income did double year-over-year. furthermore, the company did say it is going to spend about $17 billion this year on new programming, and it won't actually have to borrow any of that money to spend on that. that should be relatively good news to investors, but keep in mind, you're talking about a company that, five or six quarters ago, we weren't talking about paramount+ or discovery or an

jonathan: a whole lot longer. lisa: the amount of debt that has been incurred to survive the pandemic, that has a lack effect on inflation -- lag effect on inflation. this is the conundrum. can we still get inflation without a change to some of these structural underpinnings? jonathan: let's turn to price action briefly. a slight decline, down 17 on the s&p. i feel slightly hung over except i have not been drinking. sometimes it takes a while to wake up, tom. do know that feeling? tom: we are all doing this together. india is truly blowing up. part of it is people have to get off their butt and go out and get the first and second shot. jonathan: i feel slightly hung over this morning for it. tom: it was a transitory shot. jonathan: let's round this out. a stronger euro under the mix. convergence as we go deeper into the year. tom: there is a lot of correlation set up. 89 would be stunning. jonathan: there it is, crude. lisa: you see inventories are coming down dramatically and you are synced demand pick up which r

jonathan: i agree. coming up, greg valliere of agf investments on a pr statement that has everyone's attention, coming up shortly. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. apple will speed up plans to invest in the u.s. the company says it will contribute $430 billion to the u.s. economy over the next five years area that is 20,000 jobs. that includes everything with capital expenditures. apple will create a new campus and engineering hub in north carolina's research triangle area. in india, coronavirus infections had a record high for the fifth day in a row. the government reported more than 352 thousand new cases. overcrowded hospitals urging away -- hospitals are turning away patients because they are running out of oxygen and beds. americans who struggle to find an affordable starter home may soon get a break. many owners who have been wary of listing during the pandemic are willing to do so now, but about 10% of the nation's homes have hit the market this year, up from

jonathan: it's new? ok.hter] emily, thank you so much, bloomberg government reporter down in washington, d.c. the japanese prime minister speaking right now. he will make an overall decision on when to lift the state of emergency in tokyo, which was implement it in the last 24 hours. implementing policies to stage a safe olympics, inside 100 days away. things are getting dicey in japan. tom: they are getting dicey, and you see it with singapore. i think you mentioned that yesterday, how singapore shut down flights to india. i don't want to equate what is going on in japan to the horrific tone in india and brazil, but we go into this weekend, and where's the rest of europe? i was sort of shocked where my math on france was. jonathan: improving slowly on the vaccination front, that's for sure. the doxies prime minister concerned the virus surge could spread across the whole country -- the japanese prime minister concerned with virus surge that could spread across the whole country. lisa: this is 1000 cases wer

[laughter] jonathan: remind me the price of this, tom. tom: $449. jonathan: more than the bag.a: that is ridiculous. tom: but you're getting airmen as -- you are getting hermes. jonathan: i guarantee you buy one before i do. lisa: in all seriousness, i thought that tom, you were right that this should have been an important meeting for apple. it should have been an important launch, and it wasn't received as such. i do wonder how much of a liability that is for apple if they can't come up with the next iphone. tom: romaine i thought was correct, and he undersold it. what they are doing, and it may come down to parts shortages, maybe they are setting themselves up for a huge september announcement, there is a desperate need for enhanced, sophisticated apple computers. jonathan: how many times have we been talking about this? tim cook can't get it done. and he just turned it into the capital return machine. the stock just hasn't mattered at all. tom: i don't know, the colored i macs, lisa, are you going to buy them? lisa: now, they get the air tags. [laughter] jonathan: i think i

jonathan: in new york city, bloomberg's "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, investorsrappling with peak growth concerns, chairman jay powell refusing to blink and the treasury issuing tenure debt and t-bills with a zero yield. we will dig into the big issue. >> we are going through a peak growth rate right now. the economy is still quite good. we are in the third inning of the continuous economic cycle. >> we know the economy is reopening. >> there is a lot of stimulus in the pipeline. >> we are at an inflection point. >> the pace of change is moderating. >> the question is what comes next? >> additional stimulus coming, perhaps another $4 trillion. >> the fed will be more patient. >> that's a lot of growth coming down the road. . >> it tends to peak when the rates of growth peak. >> 4% rates. >> that is effectively pricing in what i call the fed's perfect world. >> they should start tapering by year end. >> we are still moving through this recovery. jonathan: let's bring in the team. this concept of peak growth, whether it is relevant in the cycle given the uniqueness

jonathan: really smart.sten slok, apollo global management on the story and the american economy. to bring you some of those forecasts, the median estimate for cpi for the economist at bloomberg, 6.6% for 2021, then the drop down to 2.1%. that seems to be the view in line with the federal reserve. doubts raised by torsten and captured by volatility in rates. tom: i'm starting to feel like i felt 12 20. there is a zeitgeist and boy has it been wrong in the past. listen to business. they are buying stock. jonathan: coming up on the open, bob michele joining us. he might stay later on friday. what time is the fed show? tom: i don't know. lisa: 2:00 p.m. jonathan: when does it finish? lisa: 2:30. tom: just go across the street and have the beverage of our choice. jonathan: from new york city, julian emanuel calling today what could be the most important day for markets in 2021. the take from btig. this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden goes before a joint session of congress tonight to try to sell his histor

jonathan: come back soon. mentioned the airlines, united indicating domestic demand in america almost totally recovered already just after q1. tom: it is out there. i witnessed it. i think you are going to capri or wherever you are going. jonathan: i don't know if i'm coming back. tom: the basic idea is we are all racing. again, i'm going to go to the micro headlines we are seeing. and much more interested in the tick by tick earnings revenues than i am about the big picture. jonathan: let me go over these headlines from pfizer. the data they are looking at indicates that the shot remains effective 91% effective after six months. this does not mean it is not effective after six months, it just means it is still effective. the additional line i want to add is the following. the shot remains effort -- efficacy against the south african vaccine. lisa: this is feeding into the optimism that we can beat the pandemic. i think the focus is also going to be on the booster shot. are people going to fill you out -- goin

jonathan: it's fresher.alked about frontloading some bond buying and is not showing up in the data. just how many bonds are they buying and what will that look like? we are not seeing it in a significant way. ecb president has been criticized about her performance in these news conferences. behind the scenes, there is some frustration. at least in the markets community. tom: to be clear, the great distinctions they don't have a booming economy. they don't have anything like china or the united states. jonathan: also a different approach with the furlough programs and entitlement programs across europe compared to the united states as well. you might not see that same snapback in europe largely because of policy difference. the vaccination rollout has been the clear differentiating factor over the last year or so. the vaccination effort in america has been further and europe has been difficult. we are starting to go through that inflection point. clearly things improved and we want to see a whole lot more of

jonathan: thank you for that.you mentioned that language earlier, the middle class is somehow being fleeced, and we could discuss that for months and months to come. it is interesting to compare and contrast the approach to nine months ago, when the governor of new york was practically begging for wealthy individuals to come back to new york city, to return. now the language has shifted very quickly. tom: and we have to see if the action follows the language. in all of my conversations, this centers around president trump effort to punish the blue states with the acclaimed salt tax. that seems to be the emotional third rail, at least in the tri-state area. lisa: just to go back to this rhetoric from president biden, we are not just hearing that from across -- from democrats. we heard that from jamie dimon and his 60 page letter that you took the day off to read. he was talking about the rise of populism if you don't have a consistent and competent government. not only are the lowest income americans lagging behind

[laughter] tom p: jonathan, give him heck.n't let him get away with just saying we want further progress on labor without finding that. in fairness, maybe it is a little bit too early. maybe they do want to talk about it in broad strokes. but i think pressing him a bit on that, maybe that is the answer. if that is what you are so used to telling us, that you are not ready to define it yet, just give us something. but my sense is that the way that powell has been talking about this, how many times has he said there's 10 million people on the sidelines? well, now it is 9 million people. my sense is that is probably one of the guideposts, one of the lines in the sand. i think they want some, if not all of those folks back. but i just want some clarity on that, and i think that is totally reasonable. but i am some pathetic if they think it is a little too early to define it. but just say that. say it is too early to define it. jonathan: i think they think it is working right now. the question is whether they think it is necessary

the duo jonathan: jonathan:, longtime fans of the club -- jonathan: the duo, longtime fans of the clubd knight consortium reportedly tried to buy the club back in 2010. you wonder whether that is back on the table. i have no idea. you wonder how the dominoes fall from here because i don't think we are done yet for some of these big clubs. i will remind people, it is not over for the likes of barcelona, real madrid, ac milan. they have not given up completely on this. they are still trying to work out how to pick up the pieces. tom: the pieces in the coming days, let's go out one week, 10 days. can some of these teams be precluded from playing in europe? jonathan: i don't think that is the direction of travel right now. i think if they carry on pushing this issue, sure, we could end up there. but not now. what is interesting for me is how the likes of barcelona, real madrid, and ac milan reconvene, and what the next steps are, because the trajectory for spending for those clubs in europe is not sustainable. tom: the one thing i have learned out of this, and i am as ignorant on this as a

jonathan: what accent is it? tom: i don't know, northern british. jonathan: classic.re i am from. tom: is it e-verton or everton? lisa: he just got the mute button. jonathan: lisa is not happy, i can tell you that. coming up, michael shaoul. everton. leicester. that northern british accent. euro-dollar, 1.2034. yields, 1.58. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels. get gym results at home in just 10 minutes a day. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. get off the floor

jonathan: that a stephen biggar there.ve three very different banks behind us, and just trying to understand the readthrough for other banks as well. tom: i think you were dead on about the separation here, as i mentioned an hour ago or so. what i would just touch upon is how we have regulated these banks into a corner. maybe jammin will talk about that on the various calls today. i can't say enough how michael spence, the laureate which was out front on this. a critical essay 11 years ago. michael spence said be careful what you wish for with regulation because you are going to have a successful group, and what is their choice of what to do with all of that profit? jonathan: all that profit and all of that cash. consumers, businesses. that is what you've got to wade through. lisa: this idea of how it really just intermediates the banks, that they won't need to lend if they have so much money. morgan stanley shares up 1.5% in premarket trading. that is outperforming bank of america and citigroup's share prices, and this is

jonathan: it does continue. think peter tchir of academy securities asking the right question this morning. it is not about whether we will get a boom. it is about how big will it be and how long will it last. they are the questions we will be debating for the next couple of months. tom: we heard it from david kotok on the equity market earlier. we will hear from tony rodriguez of nuveen on the equity market. -- on the fixed income market. jonathan: what are we a couple months into 2-21? we've already seen these big moves before the recovery has even got started. i'm already thinking about retail sales this coming thursday. those numbers are set to be big. noticed bank of america looking for 11%. carl riccadonna looking for something in and around 10%. tom: my good friend. jonathan: my good friend, lisa's good friend. not just your good friend. [laughter] tom: what is so important about this, when you split apart yield dynamics, it is about a belief in all that is good in america, and a credit quality that maybe

jonathan: i just have one more.ill processing the huge effort in d.c., and you've been optimistic and you've been right. i want to hear from you if you still think people underestimate this recovery? what you think they underestimate still and can you put some numbers on it? neil: i think what is important -- in terms of the labor market what is important to realize is the distribution of job losses during the pandemic has been highly unusual. it does not task the same wide net the financial crisis did. we are talking about leisure and hospitality jobs. those jobs tend to skew lower productivity, lower wage. what that implies is you do not need as much gdp growth to get you the same kind of jobs growth. the labor market shortfall was disproportionate relative to the gdp shortfall. by the same token, you do not need as much gdp to get that many jobs. it tells you we can have a much stronger labor market recovery than not going forward. jonathan: really smart. thank you. neil dutta, renaissance macro research. i just

jonathan: what about you?ene: if you look at the last six months, the tug-of-war between duration risk and credit risk has been skewed towards credit risk and that has been the place to be. now, when we look at the optimism in markets, we see a lot of that reflected in prices, the barclays index spread yon 300 basis points for the first time since pre-financial crisis. we are stunning to balance that out more, taking advantage of the fact that interest rates have gone higher. we are adding to ration coming from a short the ration position into one that is slightly less so. there is something to take into account related to the conversation we had before, which is if we look at how the market is priced for the fed, the fed has been introducing its interest-rate forecast for 10 years and this is one of those few times when the market is placing interest rates higher than the fed's forecast. in the past, it has been a good time to add duration. on the credit side, be a little more picky, not just buying high-yiel

jonathan: onto apple, then onto amazon this coming thursday. the stories change. it is about the year on your base effects. a little more complex than the base effects for some of the cyclical companies. the story for me has been repeated by morgan stanley. demand is good. can we meet it with supply? can we execute? it is the execution risk that gets a little more interesting as these numbers poor in -- these numbers pour in. tom:tom: it is to america's. there's an america guilty from its prosperity, and another america flat on its back. jonathan: political risk around wages, around the taxes you pay, and these companies want to put themselves out front as part of the solution before anyone concludes they are part of the problem and does something about it. i think washington, d.c., parts of it have already made their minds up that they are part of the problem and they want to do something about it. the federal reserve is doing its bit to keep things looser a long time while this administration

jonathan: just a final question for me.he cdc will convene a meeting of the advisory committee tomorrow, wednesday. i think a lot of people will read that and say why wait until tomorrow. sam: these are 15, 16, 14 people you have to corral and put them in one place. get them the data so that they can read the cases and understand them. that is critical. there's no point going into a meeting blind, not having been able to study the cases. so one day is actually pretty good. jonathan: sam, good to catch up as always. just to recap that breaking news for you, six point 8 million doses up johnson & johnson administered in the united states -- for you, six point 8 million doses of the johnson & johnson vaccine administered in the united states. the fda and cdc are recommending a paul's in -- a pause in that vaccine because of a rare blood clot condition in six cases. the fda will review that analysis as it also investigates these cases. until that is complete, this is the headline. we will take a pause on the j&j vaccine. at lea

jonathan: that line from

jonathan: i really don't know. what is going to be interesting is what happens with the players, too. alex webb on bloomberg opinion this morning, i thought he read a really nice piece about what it could mean for the players. he wrote for the european court of justice that ruled in favor of a rival competition in ice-skating of the international skating union on the basis that athletes should be able to take part in any competition they choose. i wonder whether the threat on players holds. there's all kinds of legal ramifications away from those as well. tom: i know you wanted to look at the space program as well. a headline here, and there's been a lot of accidents recently in this jumble, we are looking at a man spacex flight on april 22. lisa: hold on a second, we didn't even talk about the helicopter yesterday. we mentioned it, but it was a big deal. it was exciting. tom: i had a brilliant observation at the dining room table last night. how can the helicopter fly on mars if there's nowhere? lisa: that's the r

jonathan: decent point.re are many people in the market that i've had private conversations with who believe the chairman powell turn of the last 12 months or so to social warrior status is somewhat disingenuous and all about getting a second term. tom: i don't have a strong opinion on that. jonathan: i'm just telling you where the discussion is. tom: you walk in every day, you are the foreigner and you are learning about bowlweavils. lisa: that is how he welcomes you. tom: when i go to london, i have no clue what is going on. jonathan: i have no idea even when we are talking about the u.k.. you are often confusing me. tom: we will talk the designated hitter tomorrow. jonathan: coming up, glenn hubbard. you're off tomorrow, are you? tom: my people have not told me. jonathan: i was told you might be. futures up 30 points. an upgrade to 185. tom: maybe amazon stocks will come in. jonathan: i will take a phone from you tomorrow. that sounds good enough? jonathon: all-time highs on the s&p 500. your price action

jonathan: stick with us.et the economic data at some point and when we do we will turn to you. cpi on april 13. the year on year figure. this'll be the number, the median as bennett -- the median estimate is 2.5%. that sets us up for the debate. tom: i agree with that. it will be on the labor economy as well. i will go back. it is about 7 million jobs to be formed. that is the best gas we see -- that is the best guess we see. joining us is luke kawa, ubs asset management and formerly with bloomberg. we are thrilled he can join us today. you mentioned the goods producing economy. ubs has a terrific reach, particularly across the pacific rim. what you see in the dynamics of the goods producing economy? luke: what we highlight and what we are excited about that informs a lot of our positioning is the breadth of the strength in good sectors. if you look at the share of 25 major economies we track where ism manufacturing is above 50 and accelerating on a three-month racist, that is well over three quarters -- on a