i'm jonathan ferro. good morning. 43:13 on the s&p, all-time highs into the jobs report. tom: a boom economy, and i think it's important to focus on the labor economy and how it goes into two things, the guesstimate on the economy, the guesstimates have gotten more positive, and constructive, and the other is the inflation dialogue over laying it. maybe that's a mystery but most people see higher inflation, big nominal gdp, that means job formation. ellen: guesstimate -- jonathan: guesstimate, and i think that is what it is going to payrolls. we have 1050 at the high-end. tom: the numbers are there, and if we will look at the headline number, i will go to wages, less what i was talking about, rising inflation. there is a negative real wage in america, that is never good. jonathan: do higher prices fix the problem in the labor market? lisa: not less the higher wages turn into equally a higher -- equally higher wages than higher prices. if you have wages that are lagging behind these other input prices and

jonathan: good morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. two, three points, up by 0.6%. euro-dollar just slightly negative. tom: interesting data. look for special coverage this afternoon. out of edinboro, the prestigious residency at the university of chicago in emergency medicine, -- the world tour of difficult diseases. welcome. what comes after the delta variant? virology 101 keeps telling me these things keep changing. is the delta variant a pathway what is coming down the road? >> it is likely the virus will continue to mutate. it will be more transmissible. tom: how do we approach that? from a medical basis, we are working on vaccines, what do you want from our politicians? >> within the chaos we have right now, decreasing the amount of circulating virus. that is a public health challenge. it can be overcome by vaccinating individuals. that is what we need from our politicians, we need to promote vaccines, decrease the amount of circulating virus. so future variants are slower to evolve. lisa: one certainty will be vaccinations, at l

jonathan: we are about to find out. a reminder of something that jeff gundlach over at double line would say. i think it is really important. what has changed? at the data changed or the way that market participants behave to the data changed even more so? tom: we are in a massive bull market. to bring that in the shock of what we have done office pandemic in the equity markets and how it dovetails back to bonds, i think all of our heads are spinning. i don't think guesstimates is what we've got forward. we heard that with michelle meyer. jonathan: michael dardenjonathan: joint -- michael darda joins us now, am km holdings market strategist -- mkm holdings market strategist. michael: i think the credit market situation is very interesting and actually sort of strange. with the rally in treasuries, there's a big focus on peak growth, and the concerns about global growth, whether it is china slowing or the variants hitting largely unvaccinated our kits, there's a story line there, no doubt about it. consider the fact that

jonathan: greg? greg: both. [laughter] jonathan: ashok?: i will watch but low expectations for a lot of new developments. jonathan: i think a lot of people are with you. appreciate you catching up. from new york city, that does it for us. this was bloomberg real yield. this is bloomberg. ♪ so... i know you and george were struggling with the possibility of having to move. how's that going? well... we found a way to make bathing safer with a kohler walk-in bath. it has the lowest step-in of any bath. it has handrails, a wide door, and textured surfaces. so it gives you peace of mind. and you would love the heated backrest - and the whirlpool jets - and the bubblemassage. and, it was installed quickly and conveniently by a kohler-certified installer. a kohler- authorized dealer walked us through every step in the process and made us feel completely comfortable in our home. and, yes, it's affordable. looking good, george! we just want to spend as much time as possible, in our home and with our grandkids. they're going to be here any minute fo

jonathan: what is that? what is it? tom: is a radio signal. jonathan: ok.higher? tom: it is very lifty. jonathan: should we weigh this out off air? it might be more beneficial to our audience. let's work through the price action. on the s&p 500, three-day winning streak. on the s&p 500, advancing on was 20 points, up by 0.5%. just the range on the 10 year, i know you have been -- i have been going on about it a lot, but it is amazing to see it back through 1.30% without much of a catalyst. taylor: i keep hearing it, it is half technicals, half shorts. the other half we have heard from some more cautious analysts is more fundamental. how much was that the growth scare on monday? jonathan: it is given life to a fundamental story. you get the price move. taylor: you have the swissie-10 year -40 basis points, so 1.30% doesn't look so bad. tom: very philosophical. jonathan: just working through things, getting to another weekend. i know you were distracted watching "ted lasso" already. what was the first episode like? tom: last year's first episode was fabulous.

i'm jonathan ferro. price action in the equity market, we are down 7/10 of 1% and a decent chunk of this is going to amazon. the market is at two or three basis points. we have news from 10 minutes ago from reuters, reporting that the u.s. sec has stopped processing registrations of u.s. ipos and other securities by chinese companies with new guidance for disclosing to investors the risk for new crackdowns by beijing. this is according to people familiar with the matter. kailey: so it's not a wholesale eradication of ipos, but you are seeing the alibaba adr following this 2.5% on the heels of this headline. there is ramped up pressure between the u.s. and china when it comes to ipos, and frankly sharing financing of the biggest and most powerful tech companies. jonathan: some people would say it's pretty slow. kailey: that started a month ago, when this company came to the u.s. company markets. we know that story about it potentially going private or not. and this is obviously for new listings, but what'

jonathan: the balance continues. alongside tom keene, im jonathan ferro joined by taylor riggs. we can talk about that a little bit later. equity futures on the s&p up 19th, advancing for 10th -- advancing 0.4%. tom: we spoke with michael purves yesterday. others begin to recalibrate, to take their earnings. the french luxury conglomerate. but there is benjamin laidlaw. i love what he says. it is a healthy pause. what we saw is not a correction. jonathan: 5% more common, averaging three year. history favors buying them. the fundamental outlook is unchanged. let us talk about this bond market. we went from 1.12 to 1.25 this morning. tom: a sigh of relief and may be more clarity on the delta variant. there it was a little bit of pandemic calm in the last 12 to 24 hours. jonathan: let us talk about the delta variant and united airlines. that did not sound like an airline too concerned about the future. kailey: a full recovery of demand by 2023. if you've been traveling, you would think there was a full recovery demand this weekend. we are hearing from companies like united. we will

jonathan: good to catch up.ab center financial research director and fixed income strategist. yields just off the session highs about 1.25%, up about 0.1%. tom: i will be fascinated to see which way the equity market breaks. i am going to say it again, it is based off her earnings. to me, that is the elephant in the room. destructive elephant, bad elephant, i don't know which. but to me, earnings are everything. jonathan: almost unchanged now. we were positive 0.4 percent, and now pretty much up by not even 0.1%. taylor: my key question to some of our guests on "the close," where are we for sweet spots for the equity market? our lower yields hinting at something more nefarious going on? jonathan: in the eye of the the whole of the beholder -- of the beholder, isn't it? there's no narrative, no agreed consensus. that gives you an idea of this inflection point that some people think we are at. the s&p 500 almost unchanged on the day. yields higher on the 10-year to 1.2367%. alongside tom keene, and jonathan ferro,

jonathan: absolutely.oint, isaac it is really important you don't sell what you want in these moments. you sell what you can. i've landed on from mohamed el-erian over the years, and he reflect on his time when he would go to investors and asked them about something happening in mexico, and they would say yeah, we are selling chile, and he would turn around and say, why are you doing that? they would say, we've already taken the hit on something like mexico. chile is still doing ok. that is the problem people have, the contagion risk and bunnies trying to get ahead of the contagion risk. this can snowball pretty quick a. i know a lot of people in fixed income are super focused on asian credit and how this starts to bleed. it is just the beginning. keep an eye on it. see what is happening and keep your eye on how this spreads, the contagion mechanism for something like this that starts verio idiosyncratic -- that starts very idiosyncratic and then starts to bleed out. tom: that was the pendulum of snowballs

jonathan: you will love this quote. "the ecb has set aside a new inflation target to miss an markets want to know how they go about missing it." that is the story going into this new conference later this morning. tom: i just did a survey of nominal gdp for francine lacqua. in finland, i was surprised. germany, not all that good. the bottom line is they are managing a traditionally lethargic growth, trying to give it some form of umph. francine: -- jonathan: did you watch the town hall with the president last night? i will sleep. i think that is when kailey leinz wakes up. kailey, the president making the point that higher wages are the future for the policy of this administration. kailey: he is trying to make the case for future spending. he keeps reiterating that look at what economists and what wall street is telling you. they are saying it is transitory and therefore it must be that the pricing pressures are going to pass us by. it is not going to stick around forever and that makes it easier for the case to pump tr

jonathan: dr.lta -- it feels like we are taking a small step backward on several fronts. the path toward reopening and going back to work. that was the next big step. i wonder what happens with the banks here on wall street. it will be interesting to see if they change things. tom: it's the level of illness from this delta variant and how this plays into back to school. there's other cases like that in process right now. what about the delta valiant? jonathan: i had some money people talk about stay-at-home stocks and reopening stops -- stocks. kailey: it's basically at the same level after what we saw. the conversation has moved from fear about inflation matches back to straight up growth fears and are we going to slow. jonathan: yesterday was ugly. your equity market up 18 points on the s&p. coming up, the big bull on wall street. looking for 4800 year-end on the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, an

jonathan: let's see what happens stop tom keene, jonathan ferro.one minute until you leave, right? taylor: i will be with you friday. jonathan: who is tomorrow? taylor: kailey leinz. jonathan: taylor, c friday. thank you. -- taylor, see you friday. t minus 19. from new york, this is bloomberg. >> the coronavirus has taken a toll on u.s. life expectancy. it dropped the most in more than seven decades last year due to hundreds of thousands of early deaths. the pandemic disproportionate toll on communities of color widened the existing gap of life expectancy between white and black americans. all of this information according to the cdc. widespread flooding in central china has forced the evacuation of 100,000 people from the city known as the world's biggest production base for iphones. the city received 18 inches of rain from monday afternoon through tuesday. that was equivalent to about eight months of average annual rainfall. coca-cola is bouncing back. the soda maker second-quarter sales beat expectations and it raised its revenue forecast for th

jonathan: returning to your constituency. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. thanks to kailey leinz. i will run over to the tv studio. on this bond market, priya misra of td. that is a big conversation coming up on "the open." this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in california, los angeles county told residents they must wear masks indoors, even if they are vaccinated. authorities are reacting to a surge in covert cases and the spread of the highly contagious delta variant. delta county added 1000 new cases yesterday for the seventh day in a row. 10 million people live there. in cuba the communist government is promising it will learn from the mass protest over the weekend. authorities will temporarily ease restrictions on food and medicine imports. thousands of people took to the streets to demand freedom and food. cuba's economy shrank 11%. the u.k. is holding out the prospect of restoring pandemic restrictions. that comes three days before it plans to drop all social distancing rules. the number of people hospitalized in th

jonathan ferro. lisa is back with us on monday, with taylor riggs. tom: rumor has it that lisa will be back, the rest of us have been slaving away and she has off on a sabbatical and we look forward to seeing her back. taylor's will -- taylor will get to earnings. we have to go to the equity markets, the bears are in retreat. jonathan: up 20. this market looks good. joyce chang spoke to the team an hour ago reiterating this view that has come out of jp morgan in the last couple of weeks and the bulls are still bullish. tom: they have earnings to back that up. there are any number of earnings, but just the covid business blew it out. there is no other way to put it. citigroup went to a 345 price target and you wonder how many dinners will there be? jonathan: the nasdaq 100 record high and twitter snapped, taylor riggs after the close yesterday, they blew it away, and facebook and google are joining the party. taylor: saying that if you are an advertiser you want to be on these platforms, namely snap.

jonathan: very true. if you are just tuning in on radio and tv, it is "bloomberg surveillance," and the c word on this program, consensus. [laughter] i think that tells you a lot. the s&p advancing a little more than 0.1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the biden administration warned u.s. companies about the risk of doing business in hong kong. it said china has pushed to exert more control over the financial hub that threatens the rule of law and endangers employees and data. today's move underscores how quickly that beijing promise of one country, two systems in dealing with hong kong has come to an end. for the second day in a row, federal reserve chair jerome powell told the senate banking committee that the reopening of the economy has driven inflation well above 2%. he reiterated the forecast that higher inflation will be temporary. in germany, at least 81 have died in the worst flooding in decades. people climbed onto rooftops and into trees after the hous

jonathan:, let's get the week started. this is bloomberg surveillance, live on tv and radio alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro, back again with the wonderful lisa, she is back from her vacation and i believe she has no vacation days left. equity futures coming in a little bit. tom, what a week we have lined up. tom: this is an important market moment. yields breaking down. if you can get to the real yield, see it folks on friday afternoon with food with -- with where we are now. inflation-adjusted yields, it speaks volumes. i would kill jon and talk to laura summers about stagflation. jonathan: the earnings, a huge amount of tech earnings through this week. chairman powell this wednesday. tom: some noise, taiwanese floods, the delta variant playing into all the dynamics in china. it is going to be a bang up earnings week. jonathan: the hang seng over in china, hong kong, getting absolutely battered. lisa: last week, china came out with a crackdown on education companies, saying they may possibly make them all not-for

jonathan: thank you, dave.erg technology's emily chang is in van horn, texas, where she had a very early morning. she has known the amazon story with our brad stone like no one else. you have a special relationship with mr. bezos. i want you to describe the amount of focus mr. bezos has on blue origin. is it1/3 of his time -- is it 1/3 of his time? is it half of his time? emily: it is everything he's doing for the next two hours, that is for sure. we are almost an hour from launch. no indication that this will be delayed. we are on schedule for 8:30 a.m. central time, lifting off. it has been increasingly more of his time. what people don't know is that he founded this company 21 years ago. this is a long time dream in the making. and finally, he's hoping today that that dream will come true. it is just a couple of weeks after stepping down officially as ceo of amazon. tom: this is a single stage rocket, 60 feet tall, and it is the first stage of the glenn program. in two or three years, what will mr. bezos be

jonathan: yep.i can't emphasize enough that they are already counting the of political shifts in the house and the senate, and that is what is true in washington as well. let's get an update on this from jack fitzpatrick with bloomberg government in washington. what are they going to do on a fractured house and a fractured senate today after what we have seen, the cacophony of the last 48 hours? what do you presume to see on this thursday? jack: on this thursday and in the next few days, there's going to be the recovery from the failed vote in the senate, the procedural vote on an infrastructure deal that is not yet an entire deal. so we are watching meeting after meeting, particularly in the senate, to see if they can wrap up the details. it does look like we could have another vote early next week. mitt romney says monday or tuesday, there could be a deal ready to go. really, what is happening in washington now is just trying to finish up the very last details of how to pay for the infrastructure

alongside tom keene, lease or winds, i am jonathan ferro -- lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro.e have some testimony from the federal reserve chair and some earnings from bank of america, wells fargo, citi. your equity market, 43 .63 on the s&p 500. a couple of points and a push i once again on the nasdaq 100, up 47 points. big tech, and dynamic we can talk about later. big tech versus small caps. that tug-of-war continues. 139.80 on 10. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, good morning. let's get you set up for the price action and the events of today. chairman powell's testimony later. equity futures basically unchanged on the nasdaq. on the nasdaq 100, 8 weeks of gains into this week. of about one third of 1% -- up about 0.3%. these are what we are watching today gary wells fargo -- what we are watching today. wells fargo, citi. let's wait for the numbers. since jim, we are down about seven or 8% -- since june, we are down about 7% or 8%. maybe the bond market matters at the moment alone bit more where the stock price goes. we take a look at two's

jonathan: the u.s.itika: china is trying to make it easier for banks to lend to smaller businesses. central bankers cut the amount of cash it must hold in reserve. the people's bank of china cut that by 0.5% for most banks. that should free up about $154 billion into the economy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the governing council considers that price stability is best maintained by aiming for 2% inflation target over the medium. the new formulation removes any possible ambiguity and resolutely conveys that 2% is not a ceiling. jonathan: that was president christine lagarde of the ecb. this whole review touches so much on europe. all that effort, all that time dedicated to making the smallest of possibly incomes which moves the european central bank. tom: i'm worried more about italy-england. i didn't see that until now. you've got to be kidding me. jo

jonathan: who knows.here is a spread between the high and low estimate, the payrolls going into tomorrow. it is still wide. tom: there is a heated debate out there. it is amazing, on new york and california, the delta in the restaurant and hospitality area. there are some regional differences and state-by-state differences. jonathan: this should be difficult to read over the past few months. we build don't have results for some of these issues. lisa: and we have not resolved childcare. if kids are not away in summer programs, to. jonathan: that is why people keep mentioning september as an month to really focus on the labor market. from new york city, good morning. equity futures, 4295. the jobless claims report is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ look...if your wireless carrier was a guy, you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better - xfinity mobile. now, they have unlimited for just $30 a month. $30 dollars. and they're number 1 in customer satisfaction. his number? del

jonathan: we will move on. lisa, i think investors are trying to work out what a transmission mechanism is for what we are seeing take place in chinese equities. for the foreign investors, why should they care? lisa: frankly, there is a ceiling -- a feeling that some of these assets are un- investable. xi jinping is so committed to his agenda. jonathan: the estimate, 2.83, a bit of a beat on revenue, second-quarter revenue. that takes us to the next stop, the earnings after the bell. microsoft, apple, alphabet. take your pick this week. tom: we are going to know more at 5:00 this afternoon. we will go beneath all the headlines and give a richer view. it is an important day because it reaffirms america's tech dominance but also says how much the other groups of stocks are struggling. jonathan: equity futures on the s&p 500 down 13, 14 points. outside of that into the bond market, a former treasury with yields lower by three or four basis points. the euro, just a little weaker. lisa: and we are going to talk abou

jonathan: build on that. krishna: a policy error in that the fed's hands are being forced when they know well that by 2022 things are going to start slowing down. and if they plan too hard, the risk of that slow being exacerbated increases. jonathan: if an earlier tapering comes through, is that bearish or bullish for treasuries? michael: it is bullish. historically, it is the opposite. people think once the fed buys bonds the yields go down, and once they stop buying bonds yields go up, but it is the opposite. by the time they start tapering, it means the economy is doing really well. the fed is handing off the economy to the private sector, so that is a good thing, but as they do that they are trying to slow activity, whether it is intentional or not, they slow down inflation and interest rates typically peak once the fed stops buying bonds. that's what the market is telling us. jonathan: do you agree? frances: in a way. i believe that tapering is actually largely priced. we know that it is coming. we can a

jonathan: down six basis points. the break of 1.88 on a 13 year yield in america. -- 30 year yield in america. jonathan: the different -- tom: the difference in focus on the yields. we are just giving it up. we are giving it up on a growth scare. i'm sorry. i didn't -- jonathan: can we do football now? tom: it's too much. sterling was sterling. jonathan: you went out on twitter saying he hadn't seen sterling dive that much since 2016. he has been the player for this tournament and it's such a shame he ended that game by doing that. the way that game was won will leave a bitter taste in the mouth of neutrals. tom: if somebody on the chicago bears had done that it would've been beaten to death in green bay. romaine: i think so. i don't know what's happening on the show. tom: italy, england, who's going to win. jonathan: you want me to choose live on air? when it comes to nations, my loyalty is split. when it comes to football, when you grow up and your family is italian, the blue jersey goes on and nothing else comes c

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro.s is bloomberg real yield. a month and sales going smoothly at this week's treasury issuance. only the seven-your offering seeing a drop in demand. believing the charge in high-grade debt markets. pushing weekly sales above forecast. high-yield markets coming to life following chairman powell's news conference. july's tally to roughly $29 billion. backed with those are marilyn watson, lisa coleman, ashish shah. you don't have to comment directly on apple if you don't want to, but for a company with that much cash, tapping the debt markets four times since may of last year, what is behind that activity? lisa: without getting into too much detail on apple, they have the stated cash of being that cash neutral. this is a company that accumulated off a lot of cash. about $90 billion in free cash flow per year. it makes sense they are coming to the debt market to achieve that goal. what is interesting about the issue, good for them, at a blended rate, achieved about 1.6% funding. for compani

jonathan: the next after this one. tom: yep. jonathan: after jackson hole.om: taken over by the delta variant. jonathan: we actually did a survey on that. lisa, i know you have gone through that, too. september seems to be the landing port for a lot of folks in this market. lisa: economists surveyed by bloomberg expect we will get tapering rhetoric. i do wonder how much of a path the chair has based on the delta variant. i could make it up, too. jonathan: good to know that lisa doesn't make it up, too, tom. tom: right now, emily wilkins saves us in washington. speaker pelosi is trying to not do a john boehner. no one talks about senator schumer and his leadership of a senate majority doing a john boehner. does senator schumer has the troops behind him? emily: he's working to get them there. let's be real, at this point, we don't have a bipartisan and for structure deal, and even as that is coming together, we are hearing other democrats in the conference raise concerns. we don't have any sort of budget resolution, which we are going to need for that budget r

jonathan: can you confirm?i've told you repeatedly, people can't tell the difference between when you're telling the truth and when you are making stuff up. you've got to be careful. tom: no, i'm serious. bezos drank tang as a kid, and i'm sure he's going to be up in space -- i can't even say it. [laughter] subadra were joppa -- subadra rajappa is with us from socgen. what is driving the low yield? is the pricing in of global slowdown -- is it the pricing in of global slowdown? subadra: i thick it feels like a classic slide in quality. they have been reacting more to news flow and safe haven bids. there's general concern on the global economy, not so much on fundamentals. the data has been sort of back-and-forth. we got somewhat ok retail sales numbers. but the market right now seems to be more fixated than anything else. tom: what we are really doing is pricing in the input of global disinflation, even if the u.s. booms, even if the u.s. does better, even a strategists call for higher yields. the fact is we in

jonathan: thank you.keep those football up it's coming. that's those football updates coming. -- keep those football updates coming. tom: it is on twitter. i knew it was coming. jonathan:,, i still don't know whether it is true or not when you speak. [laughter] heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the trump organization's cfo has surrendered to authorities in new york. he faces tax related charges, so that the company itself. it is the most direct attack on donald trump and his company to emerge from eight we're's long -- from a year's long investigation. the white house is ramping up pressure on republicans to pass a bipartisan infrastructure agreement. the administration will spotlight crumbling roads and bridges on a state-by-state basis. for funding could be used to rebuild them. china's president sounded a defiant tone marking the 100th anniversary of the entry's communist party. he called the u.s. -- the china's mission to gain control of taiwan-based recognition. citigroup says

jonathan: let's be clear. we are trimming the bundesbank swings. 10 years ago you would not have had the hikes of 2011. where we are now, if that is your goal, you need to change her policy because you're not forecasting inflation near to that. tom: as jean-claude trichet, if you're listening dial 1-800 surveillance. now we cannot underplay in america, this is a historic moment for europe. jonathan: they have added climate change considerations. headlights coming up from the ecb. i understand we will hear from christine lagarde in about 90 minutes. we need to reflect on this equity market. the s&p is more than 1% lower. in the bond market or break of 1.25. right now 1.2562. this bond market right now, how it is set up on 10, unreal, on the curve, it makes the cyclical trade quite difficult. romaine: it makes it quite difficult. the bond market has been the traffic light for the equity market. the bond market got it right when it led what front run what it up being a massive equity rally. the signals we are get

jonathan: sri?ri: the fomc did feel like the market was coming to the view that the fed had moved on to how and when, rather than if and when over the debate of tapering. in the minutes, powell's commentary seems to suggest the debate has not moved forward as much it feels like there are not enough question marks around the dynamics or even the relation to the labor market. some of the prints around the long-term on a planet rate, etc., those are driving some degree of doubts around how quickly the fed would move. for us, the base case would be a september announcement where they will start talking about tapering and it is only until next year that they will start. but the range of outcomes around that has increased in recent weeks. jonathan: here we are at 1.30 the 10-year. people are asking the question, have we already seen a peak in yields, not only for the year, but for the cycle? >> i think we have seen the peak in rates probably for the cycle. there could be another twin peak later on -- twin

jonathan: you will be proud of us. we talked about this all last week, and i think it is a really important topic to discuss because in september, the additional unemployment insurance expires, and many people want is by the return to school to develop. this is really important for how the supply side of the economy develops. i anticipate this will be a massive part of the discussion at the fed. lisa: this is a big part of why wall street banks have picked september as the time to get back to the office. everyone is looking to that key september date to figure out what the new normal looks like. jonathan: equity futures down 11 on the s&p. a turnaround from where we were a couple of hours ago. in the bond market, yields lower just a little bit in the last 30 minutes or so. we are down to 1.2395%. your euro just a touch stronger. euro-dollar positive 0.4%. lisa: there's a question of how much reaction the move to the suburbs has. new-home sales last month unexpectedly declined based on how high the prices were. now the

jonathan: let's get you to the weekend. live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. together with kailey leinz. tom back with us on monday. front and center through the morning, amazon. lisa: the idea that they were looking forward to revenues suspending due to how much people are going to use their platforms, and came in lower than expectations going forward. the idea is what happens post-pandemic? do people revert to shopping elsewhere? what does that mean for some of the darlings in the market? jonathan: that stock is down by 6.5% on amazon this morning. once amazon is done and we are through the tech week, i'm done with earnings. let's wrap them up. wages, price pressure, that's the story for the year ahead. lisa: these companies set the tone with respect to that. amazon accounting for such a massive portion of the labor market itself, you do think they set the tone, and the tone is a confusing one, and one of deceleration, if not

jonathan: i'm with you.ust how compromised is the federal reserve chairman, who's clearly looking for a second term at the cap of the central bank in america? tom: steve stanley absolutely nailed it, that what he cannot do today is go down there and say remain calm. that is not going to happen. jonathan: that is the monetary policy side of things. we got to talk about the physical side as well. lisa: a 3.5 trillion dollar proposal from to kratz they have agreed upon. will it matter enough to -- from democrats they have agreed upon. will it matter enough to markets? people bringing back their expectations for fiscal, as well as potential momentum in this economy. tom: here's your pricing -- jonathan: here's your price action this wednesday. 43 624 the s&p 500, unchanged -- 4364 on the s&p 500, unchanged. on the 10 year, a break of 1.40% briefly. eurodollar, 1.7 don nin -- eurodollar, 1.1799. lisa: i to 8:00 a.m., we get the producer price index data from the month of june. how much our input prices for indust

jonathan: from new york city, good morning. i am jonathan ferro.icz is back with us next monday. romaine bostick is dropping by with us. the nasdaq is looking good, up .2%. almost 5%, positive 0.5%. down about half a basis point, 1.3430 after the big move lower in 10-year. we have reset with a 10-year yeild at 134. tom: the tape has improved in the last hour. josh out with that definitive article in missouri in the united states. it is a big take bloomberg and very large read. right now on your fear of delta of a variant that came from india, can you imagine if there were variants from bangladesh, india, ghana, kenya, and ethiopia, and that would lead to the expertise of this doctor from johns hopkins. to say she is an associate professor does not describe her international academic -- epidemic study. do we underestimate the delta variant, if we are in missouri or manhattan should we be afraid of these foreign variants? >> i think it is somewhat challenging to call them for variant -- foreign variants. variants are variants. they are emerging every

jonathan: that is the data.he interesting part of the story was going to be how the market responds. the height yields are the front end towards the belly of the curve. not lasting long. yields are up on the five-year, a couple of basis points the two year, your 30 year yield is coming off the lows but basically unchanged on the day. of letter curve led by a lift in the front end of the curve. -- a flatter curve. this is about how the fed will react to the data. there is a bleep the fed will not let this go because of people did hold that belief, what you would expect to see is a big lift at the long end on 30, on 10, i do not see that. i see the lift through the front. what does that tell you? michael: it tells me the markets bought into the transitory regime because they think the fed will react where they think we will not see inflation last. we are getting the numbers that many people did expect but it will not go on forever. jay powell speaking tomorrow before the house financial services committee. i am su

jonathan: what do you think, jim?im: the one thing that we seem to be missing from this argument is whether or not there will be more stimulus. so far, we have had a lot of stimulus in 20 and 21. if that does not produce any kind of dislocation, i would expect we would see more stimulus as we go into 22, 2023. if all it does is produce a new high in the stock market, helps the unemployed, gives the poor something, and no consequence comes from it, we should expect more stimulus. you talk about the keebler to change, i agree that the cumulative change of the economy is important, but we are not understanding what it could be until we get some inflations for to change the thinking. we could see more tim this coming down this year and next year, and even higher growth rates. jonathan: subadra, your reaction? subadra: i think the rate of change is important. the longer-term trajectory is much more important. 7% this year, another 4% next year. it will take a few years before we get down to 2.5% growth. that is a very stro

jonathan: emily wilkins, thank you.tax policy in america, emily mentioned the report that came out. the issue i have in these pieces is that they are almost hit jobs to accomplish something. if you ask how many billionaires there are in america, would you come up with 800? the way they speak ndc is that there are tens of thousands of people with excessive wealth. i just want to make sure we don't conflate the extreme amount of wealth of some people and those who go to work and hire well educated and getting a monthly amount that the government wants to go after. it conflates into very different issues. lisa: what i am struggling with is why is this the agenda versus what we want to get done and how we are going to pay for it. why is it a matter of justice and fairness when it could just come down to what the goals are. you said this earlier, the word fair doing heavy lifting for some of the objectives which are less clear, because it isn't consensus. jonathan: thing is to talk about millionaires in washington and they d

jonathan: jonathan: we are on the same -- jonathan: we are on the same page on this. i think the next week for earnings is going to be absolutely fascinating. the divide on commentary for macro strategist and what you will hear from the c-suite from the corporate leaders from tuesday onwards could be very different. tom: it will be. what we see at sun valley, all of those elites are going to have to meet and say how do they adapt across 72 items. romaine: it will be interesting to see how many of those items become a reality. i think the message is clear that for the next three years, you have a regulatory environment that is going to be a lot more scrutiny over some of these deals. i think that could put a little bit of a chill on some of these mega-deals, but overall, the market seems to be taking it in stride. tom: let's go to the bond market. i'm looking at the real yield. we went down to negative one point whatever. we come back to a more attractive negative number. jonathan: up five points on tens. your yield, 1.3377%. futures positive by 0.5%. what is the new r

jonathan: i am with you.you speak to multinationals, when you speak to the leaders that run these companies, ask them about these issues, they don't want to talk about it. they don't want to risk their access to the mainland. kailey: i wonder if this advisory is aimed at those american companies or if this is a message for beijing as it relates to china's policy in hong kong. jonathan: bipan, great to have you with us. from your perspective, where we are from -- from u.s.-china relations and what it means for your world? bipan: we have not seen the political interference play into the trade. it has been more of a function between the dynamics of growth so far. mid 2020 is a story driven by what is happening in china in terms of domestic recovery and how that contrasts with the united states. there is more concern with respect to the credit impulse in china. also, other commodity currencies being on the defensive as well. it is primarily based on economic growth. i would not tie it to politics at this point. k

i'm jonathan ferro.s is bloomberg. ♪ [ "me and you" by barry louis polisar ] ♪ me and you just singing on the train ♪ ♪ me and you listening to the rain ♪ ♪ me and you we are the same ♪ ♪ me and you have all the fame we need ♪ ♪ indeed, you and me are we ♪ ♪ me and you singing in the park ♪ ♪ me and you, we're waiting for the dark ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. jonathan: it is 7:30 in the morning in texas. good morning. live on bloomberg tv and radio, and for our audience on quicktake, sean keys, t -30. tom: the astronauts up the tower. i do not know what they are called but i am cal

jonathan: binky, thank you. binky chadha on a big afternoon stateside, with microsoft, apple, alphabet on deck. cnn citing a source, a federal decision on a mask mandate is imminent. this is coming from cnn, citing a source. a federal decision on a mask mandate is imminent. expecting news imminently, according to cnn. tom: you really wonder what that could be after what we saw from new york city and california yesterday. jonathan: we were told there was an active conversation happening. we already knew that. now we are waiting for an actual decision. to tom's point, there seems to be an effort to just believe this -- an effort to just leave this to local leadership. maybe that is not the case. lisa: pretty much all of these policies have been left to localities. my question is if they do come up with some sort of mandate, does that set them back from popular opinion standpoints? tom: massively. lisa: because we have seen protests around the country about further restrictions. you wonder at this point whether peo

jonathan: alongside lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us on monday. your equity market declines, -0.7%. just a bit of a risk off stance this morning. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it. give the aerotrainer a shot. pain and stress is the only th

jonathan: welcome home. tom: i just think romain went down in flames trying to out gloom abramowitz. what is it say? we were unable to get out the post. >> i will give you a tutorial later on in the day. there is a feeling confirmed talking about the lack of confirmation of the gloom and bond markets. those credit spreads saying fairly tight. you're not seeing the concern about refinancing amid an otherwise slow down being predicted. jonathan: lisa with a bit of pop. you can tell lisa is rested and we are not. tom: some of us went to sleep last night. jonathan: we are not going to football talk just yet. 4350 on your s&p 500. yields coming two or three basis points. we will touch on europe later in the hour. your euro negative 2/10 of 1%. lisa: thank you for setting me up saying the week starts tomorrow. a rather slow day. there are a couple of really important things we will be watching. boris johnson is expected to confirm the end covert restrictions from july 19. he announced this last week. i find this i

jonathan: good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.g you down to earnings from morgan stanley and initial jobless claims in america, one hour and 12 minutes away. your bond market, yields are lower to 1.33% on tens. your equity market, 4352, down 15 and -0.3%. the nasdaq 100 rolling over a little bit now, too. elastic 100 with positive by couple of tenths of 1%, now it is unchanged. tom: watching the markets carefully, and the real yield as well. right now we are going to dive into china for too short a time. george sun joins, bnp paribas head of global markets for greater china. with the bnp paribas heritage in china, acute understanding of their gross domestic, their economic might. very simply, what is the appropriate or minimal level, politically acceptable level of gdp for the politicians around president xi? george: that is a good question. good morning. i think the stated number they were trying to get was around 6% for the year. keep in mind, it was 18.3% growth in the first quarter due to the pandemic comparison last year, so

jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.m new york, chris harvey of wells fargo weighing in. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. senate democrats are trying to find consensus on president biden's $4 trillion spending plan. the president at senate budget committee chair bernie sanders, who said i think we are on the same page. democrats are divided over the size and scope of the president upon proposal. it is intended to include a number of social spending and tax provisions. coronavirus infections in new york city are rising for the first time in months. the seven-day average rate of positive tests has roughly doubled in the last two weeks. one reason, the delta variant of the coronavirus has gained tracked and -- gained traction in new york. boeing will deliver fewer dreamliner this year than originally expected. boeing now expects to hand over less than half of the 100 or so dreamliner's in the desert and around its factories. pepsico report of the fastest growth in years. pepsico's sec

jonathan: the president of the u.s. said it could be several days before we find out what happens with travel. tom: on covid, i felt a seachange in covid. los angeles back to masks outside. this was an important weekend for the exhaustion of an 18 month pandemic. jonathan: your trading week starts right now. into the bond market we go. a little bit earlier in the session, we had a 124 handle. kailey: i want to talk about what we will get later today. at 10:00 eastern time, the housing builder sentiment indicator. it was 81 last month. you have a rise in cost. lumbar futures down from june. we will see if that sentiment reads through in the data today. it is a big week for earnings. ibm do after the bill -- after the bell. i bet we will get some questions about the leadership shakeup. kim whitehurst who came to ibm is now gone. the first real shakeup under the new ceo. final think we are watching, it is freedom day in the u.k. it may not be as happy of an occasion as some i thought. 47,000 new covid cases in the u.k. on

jonathan: interesting stuff. geoff yu of bny mellon, a strategist i have known for a long time and one of the sharpest in the city, that's for sure. tom: he synthesizes things -- folks, this is something we try to do with all of our guests. it is one thing to be an expert, but as you mentioned, the ability to synthesize is really important. jonathan: not giving up on the dollar call. right now, dollar index 92. lisa: a lot of people saying the fed has to be differs mover when it comes to raising rates among the big developed market banks. what is going to pressure the dollar weaker? jonathan: when you think synchronized global growth, that was the call at the start of the year. we were looking for global secret as growth. naturally, we all thought it would engineer a weaker dollar. that was the consensus view. the dollar -- the euro-dollar topped in the first week of this year. tom: we haven't gone there this morning because we have spent too much time looking at the didi news up and down. given the news from mad

jonathan: we did not name a name.siness, but also top members of their staff to other banks, and that has been coming out. you wonder how much they will be pressured by base. jonathan: they are going to do what larry fink did in the last 24 hours, just 8% across the board. that is pretty bold to say look, i am going to put my money where my mouth is and i do not think the inflation story is temporary, extend rates. tom: the terminal functions like to crockett -- calculate credit suisse is important and it is incredibly important to understand our new functions cha and go -- chan that can get you to the chanel website. jonathan: a bloomberg terminal subscriber says can you say happy birthday to my wife. happy birthday, sue, and thank you for tolerating brian and allowing him to watch so much bloomberg tv and listen to so much bloomberg radio. ♪ ritika: with the first word news , the biden administration is extending a trump era economic dialogue with china. treasury secretary janet yellen's in touch with the chine

jonathan: good morning, good morning.on day and we are 30 minutes away from the opening. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. looking ahead to chairman powell. >> jay powell. >> how does chair powell talk about the discussion around tapering? >> everything points to the fed tapering in 2022. >> i do not think we will get the same amount of fireworks. >> the fed is dealing with fundamental uncertainty. >> i think there is a fine balance. >> very cautious, very centrist. >> low expectations. >> we need the fed

jonathan: be honest.ou, for the chairman, it is hard for a lot of people to get the direction right. earlier this year it was somewhat straightforward. you knew washington, d.c. would be a tailwind. everyone was revising gdp higher. can you look down to d.c. now and characterize things on the fiscal side, the range of outcomes and how wide they are as you try to generate a decent outlook with some confidence? edward: first, let's not leave the monetary part behind. it is still a huge tailwind. monetary policy leads by one in two years. on the fiscal side, my team in washington comes to about $2 trillion when the dust settles. it is not the $3.5 trillion but it is not $1 trillion either. i think you will get more stimulus. that is over a decade. it is a couple hundred billion dollars a year. jonathan: the world has changed. there was a time when a couple of hundred billion was big, and now anything under $1 trillion you're a fiscal hawk. ed hyman of evercore. thank you so much for joining us. the equity ma