jonathan: futures down 1/3 of 1%. jonathan: is that the ultimate boomer index?: fidelity announced they want to bitcoin in retirement plans. jonathan: how do you feel about that? tom: don't get me going. jonathan: three basis points on the 10 year. euro-dollar at $1.06. from new york, for our audience worldwide, and on radio and tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ this is xfinity rewards. our way of saying thanks, with rewards for the whole family! from epic trips... to the original jurassic park... on us. join over 3 million members and start enjoying rewards like these, and so much more in the xfinity app! and check out jurassic world: dominion, in theaters june 10th. (announcer) enough with the calorie counting, carb cutting, diet fatigue, and stress. just taking one golo release capsule with three balanced meals a day has been clinically proven to repair metabolism, optimize insulin levels, and balance the hormones that make weight loss easy. release works with your body, not against it, so you can put dieting behind you and go live your life. head to golo

jonathan: kathy jones? kathy: wider. jonathan: matt hornbach? matt: tighter. jonathan: tighter?eresting. final question. 2-10s, call it 19. steeper or flatter by year-end? kathy? kathy: flatter. jonathan: bob. bob: deeper. jonathan: matt. matt: flatter. jonathan: to the three of you, thank you, matt hornbach, kathy jones. that does it from us. we will see you next week. this was bloomberg real yield. this is bloomberg tv. ♪ xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries! this phone? fewer concert tickets. this phone? more concert tickets. and not just for my shows. switch to xfinity mobile for half the price of verizon. new and existing customers get amazing value with our everyday pricing. switch today. mark: welcome to the bnn and bloomberg audiences. i am mark crumpton. in moscow, they have slashed interest rates. germany has signaled it would not oppose an embargo on russian oil. last night, russian missiles killed journalists in

jonathan: is that what he did? tom: back in the game. jonathan: is great to see you in a new seat. let's talk about why you think yields have not peaked. why? dominic: the way we have been approaching the outlook is huge uncertain but you have different regimes, you have the idea you could see strong growth from inflation regime. i think strong growth and strong inflation will another six months. i would give a lot of credence to the fed outlook that inflation will come down but growth will be resilient. the 10 year yields need to go a bit higher. that is essentially the view. lisa: what gives you confidence growth is resilient at a time when at the margins you are seeing consumers pullback and competence has been plummeting? dominic: obviously there is a lot of uncertainty from the consumer side of things that will affect confidence. the key thing people have focused on four preemptive slow down have been things like oil prices. the household balance sheets are obviously very strong. the other key thing is labor market. it is off the charts. it is been a long time since you've see

i'm jonathan ferro. tom:

jonathan: i hope so.the master starts, will you indulge me and allow me to go through the teetimes? tiger woods is 10:34 eastern time. it is the most relaxing sporting event in the world. i can sit and watch that thing for hours, for days, uninterrupted. it is just beautiful there. at of all the things, this does have a page in the book. [laughter] of all the things you want to do to put on our tour for this program, that will be up there. tom: i could see it. i could see you with a green jacket on. can i talk about a hawkish stance? the hawks are out with a vengeance on central park. we are trying to avoid a hawkish stance. that is all there is to it. i guess i'm not going to share it. [laughter] jonathan: why hasn't that worked out? tom: i have no idea. jonathan: where's the punchline? [laughter] do we have to wait for the punchline? i will wait for the punchline. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. the united nations gene

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue. ahead to chairman powell. >> is jay powell. >> to me the messaging is clear. >> normalize as quickly as possible. >> part of what the fed needs to do is tighten financial conditions. >> this process of the fed slowing down the economy is taking time. >> we are still far below any estimate of the neutral funds rate. >> a 50 basis point hike in the next meeting. >>

jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. futures are flat on the s&p and up a tent on the nasdaq. but there's only one stock to talk about. netflix is getting hammered. tom: it is really fundamental. some would say from the 50's and 60's, the new idiot box. streaming is strader this morning. jonathan: stocks are down this morning. they are explained to investors that they have gone against growth. any potential growth. largely, somewhat, how did this get out of their control? tom: we are going to do a lot of sophisticated financial review of that over the next day and coming days, but there is a point where growth switches to cath flow -- cash flow. can i make the switch that comcast did years ago? jonathan: when you thing about valuations you think about the real yield in the body -- body -- bond market. lisa: people a been watching this because it changes the dynamic. to put this in perspective, real yield was positive. it was nor

jonathan: we love catching up with you.wo weekends ago, this is what elon musk had to say about twitter. it's failing to adhere to free-speech principles. then this morning, they are up 9.2% in that stock is flying. kailey: top 25% and it shows you the star power of elon musk and anything he touches gets a boost. two weekends ago, he was talking about creating his own social media platform but instead, he's an active user. jonathan: given that twitter serves the de facto public, failing to adhere to free-speech principles undermines democracy. you wonder what he will do with it in the future. tom: is it leverage for management? i don't know. i'm looking at the financial statement and the net income is there but it doesn't feel like a tech stock most it feels like it's just a company. is that sophisticated enough? jonathan: we will catch up with our next guests after this short break. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you c

jonathan: thank you so much. were record cases in shanghai step record covid case for monday in shanghai is 13,000 plus. for a city that runs in the tens of millions, that's the story. it's only just over 13,000. tom: i'm not a medical professional but i would advise with the doctor just said and to me, the tragedy here is they simply will not accept pfizer and maternal science as a solution. that's all this come down -- that's all this comes down to. lisa: it's not just us asking, think about the companies. when we see the de-globalization or the removal of shipping factories out of china to areas closer to home. jonathan: i defer to tom on this. the teams are getting sent out. tom: it's under the radar and its delicate i will state this as clear as i can stop when you come out of hong kong, you go south to singapore. then you realize how far away it is. geography here is the key point. jonathan: the conversation continues on the equity market with blackrock shortly. the equity market is down about a quarter of

i'm jonathan ferro. tom: what i'm looking at today is a set of inflation statistics that say inflation is here. how about gold. we just had a new high on corn. there's all these indicators of prices up. jonathan: the conversation on wall street is moving. maybe the mechanical peak is. ultimately this story will persist through the year hit. they think that's going to start hitting growth and earnings as well. tom: to me the thing in the economic notes that there is this game wrapped into the fed parlor game of what is the timing of a presumed the client in inflation. i guess we have evidence that's presumed. jonathan: we can play the fed parlor game. banks aren't rallying on that story. they aren't rallying on that whatsoever. the numbers at b of a this morning, it's a miss on investment banking revenue. look at the performance of stock in the premarket. that's a stock that's been hammered over the last month. lisa: it's not enough to shake the feeling that sin wall street. you have an increase in yields

trading, this is bloomberg be open with jonathan ferro -- the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: live, we begin with the big issue, wrapping up earnings on wall street. >> the underperformance of banks -- >> banks seem to go down. >> you have to watch those costs. >> it is the r word. >> now it is not an issue of statistically higher rates, giving banks breathing room. >> banks are emblematic of a broader issue. >> a strong resurrection of the

jonathan: the hope is that it peaks. and does it change anything for the trajectory of the federal reserve? lisa: wednesday will be the key day when jp morgan kicks off the season. can i pass on as robustly as they have to the consumer. jonathan: the banks are not responding to higher rates your the 10 year is up 30 basis points. the banks are lower. every day the banks index is weaker negative. lisa: this comes as the federal reserve says we need to slow lending and how else will we get inflation down? basically, they are not hoping for some base effect to kick in. they need to see evidence and if they don't they will slow demand. jonathan: no one wants to get cocky at head of a 50 basis point height. can't make my mind up if it is stagflation. there is no consensus out there. tom: we did a great job of pushing back. our job is not to give an opinion but there are people pushing against the recession call. jonathan: equity futures up .25%. on the nasdaq 100, positive, around .3%. at the bond market, yields higher. crude

jonathan: are you getting to fly out there? tom: i am hoping. jonathan: let's go to bramo's. lisa: i will have an eiffel tower. jonathan: tried to sell that to mrs. keene. lisa: i will provide the wine. ritika: up-to-date with news from around the world. and ukraine officials say a missile attack on a railway station filled with refugees has killed thousands of people and we did at least 300. the station is on the eastern flank of the territory held by ukrainian forces. the war is entering a new phase. it is likely ukraine has just weeks to acquire and deploy new weapons for fighting in the eastern part of the country. the european union has targeted russia's crucial energy revenues. the block agreed to ban russian pole imports and japan will follow. the biggest round of sanctions since russia invaded ukraine. the band also includes a ban on russian traps and ships from entering the eu. the russian central bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rate. that is seen as a sign of confidence the central bank can reverse some of the monetary tightening imposed after the invasion of

jonathan: amazon is down seven 5% . tom: jonathan: let's start with the earnings. can you reconcile the earnings in america with the worry over the future? >> you can talk about the wall of worry. we track 34 markets and only seven over the past week were up. the market is very worried now. all of the issues from the companies you talked about will way on the u.s. but it will affect what happens over the next three months. tom: are you looking out over the uncertainty of a rising earnings and focused on the gloom? do you just look out beyond that? >> we try to look young that. beijing is trying not to go into lock down. they announced people can go back to work but let's say you want to be positive, be very careful what you wish for. if it's going to be a 2009 credit cycle than supply chain issues especially commodities and inflation may impact that. you ain't seen nothing yet so be careful what you wish for. lisa: how much could we see oil prices surge in the face of that stimulus in addition to the likely band that germany is backing on oil coming from russia? >>

jonathan: in a big way. on tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping you up-to-date with the first word, i'm lisa matteo. it is a major escalation in the standoff between russia and europe over energy supplies. moscow will cut off the floor of natural gas to poland and bulgaria. it is making going on a threat to halt gas flows to countries that refuse the new demand to pay for the fuel in rubles. european gas prices rose more than 20%. xi jinping is calling for an all-out effort to boost infrastructure construction. it is beijing's latest attempt to rich -- to rescue economic growth, but the strategy may prove less effective because of lockdowns to get the coronavirus under control. the world's richest person cannot afford many days like tuesday. elon musk's stake in tesla pond -- plunged by $32 million. investors gave their verdict by sending shares of tesla down 12%. musk has pledged some of his tesla stake to secure the deal. norway is tops when it comes to normalizing life alongside the coronaviru

jonathan: west london?they go down, they would delay qpr. -- play qpr. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. let's get to first word news. you is threatening china for sanctions if they assist russia. wendy sherman says they are not helping by amplifying russian disinformation campaigns. in china, demand for oil is following the most since the early days of the pandemic. demand is expected to follow 20% from a year ago. china's zero covid policy has humbled large parts of the economy. emmanuel macron is getting closer to winning another term as president. marine le pen is running out of time to narrow the gap between them. she needed to land a major blow in the presidential debate wednesday night to catch up but failed to do so. an international arrest warrant for former nissan head carlos ghosn. he now lives in lebanon after a daring escape after facing charges of financial wrongdoing. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by m

jonathan: you -- treasuries? >> you are at the point where the market has gotten way ahead of the fed and chipped away the consolidations. one thing that is different is the level of growth and inflation. we have accelerated in terms of job creation and inflation numbers have broadened. that is higher than it was in 2000 or 1994. we will have to see if the pace of growth is dented by the first moves by the fed. we may be in the middle not the end. jonathan: the conversation we are having about the fed is the speed at which we get to neutral. they are looking for a 50 basis point hike in june. -- inmate. have you changed your thoughts on where the ultimate destination is? >> we haven't changed the destination. we are still a little bit lower than the market is pricing for the next 12 months or so. we are changing the pace just like the broader market is pulling forward rate hike expectations. the fred -- the fed is threading a narrow needle to tighten financial conditions while inflation is running hot. similarly,

jonathan: good day to you. only way to minimize the economic financial and societal damage of long inflation is to err on the side of doing too much. tom: the wheelhouse not mentioned is the study of currency dynamics. currency has moved in the worry direction but we are not there yet you really wonder how currency folds into what you just stated with deutsche bank. jonathan: the dollar index is just south of 102 and dollar-yen is not far away. we are doing that parity thing again. lisa: how much of that has to do with the menton -- with the momentum in the economy? restrictive policy this is xfinity rewards. our way of saying thanks, with rewards for the whole family! from epic trips... to the original jurassic park... on us. join over 3 million members and start enjoying rewards like these, and so much more in the xfinity app! and check out jurassic world: dominion, in theaters june 10th. this is xfinity rewards. our way of saying thanks, with rewards for the whole family! from epic trips... to the original j

jonathan: thank you. tom: and he serves pie. jonathan: let's get real about sanctions. a proposal to do something about coal, can you start there? mar wheni you get something ona paper in the european: union that means it will get approved. otherwise you debate around it behind the scenes but you don't write it down. the fact that we have something in paper says that tomorrow, this will be approved and in my view, there are big restrictions coming in for russian shipping and ports coming into europe. the other thing is that you could say we are disappointed, there is no gas or oil but we knew this would be a crescendo. you start with: and finally you get to oil and gas and that will be the position for the german industry. tom: what will the president of the united states to today about the images on twitter and in the papers and on television? annm the president reiterated that he believesarie: vladimir putin is a war criminal and he says this guy is brutal and everybody has seen an itself rages. we got

jonathan: thank you. let's kick off the market conversation with lori heinel, global chief investment officer of state street global advisors. you are more dovish in the outlook than most people who come on this show, and more constructive on the economy as well. can you walk us through it? lori: absolutely. we think that they reopening trade is still with us. certainly in the u.s., consumer balance sheets are quite healthy. we see employment really being strong. other factors like energy, which the u.s. is benefiting from. we have ratcheted down our expectations. the other side of that equation is the inflation picture is very destabilizing. the comps will start to get harder and harder, so we think that is the fed reacts to the current prince, they may be at a tougher spot in the fall. tom: i want to go to the idea of a collective memory of inflation. so many people listening and watching don't understand what corporations do given inflation. you say we are reopening 10% nominal gdp. how do corporations

jonathan: thank you as always.re was some research over the weekend on the yield curve inversion. he has the 70's experience in mind. you can pick your moment based on what you think now those investigations and those research pieces keep popping up . tom: i love what bob seeger did back then. like a rock. it's not the same. i have immense trouble with comparing and contrasting to the 70's. that was the closest i get to singing. where's tang? jonathan: futures are up 2/10 on the s&p 500 and twitter is flying. ♪ jonathan: good morning to you all. the shape of the market on the nasdaq of the s&p. the nasdaq 100 up 4/10 of 1%. one thing to watch is twitter. in the bond market we are taking our signal from the yield curve. curve inversion. negative earlier this morning. overnight in the open as well. overnight into this morning, we are negative four basis points. the worries around that getting really interesting. goldman out with a piece saying maybe the early 1970's experience is an example of when -- because of fear

jonathan: deep value. not yet.nk the character of this selloff has changed and that's what gets my attention. we got comfortable with this idea of flattening, then yield curve inversion. this month something changed. he had a breakout in the long and of the steeper yield curve in america. trying to get our hands around what's the catalyst? what's been going on the last couple of weeks? >> our markets operate on narratives more so than numerology. we went from a very flat posture and some of those result in large trades being put on. in the public data positioning has started to go the other way. half of the steepening is a positioning unwind. we are clearly seen concern for at some point the fed is going to make a judgment call between accepting a recession and forcing us into one or just embracing stagflation. lisa: a buyer's from home and this dovetails into where we begin with the idea of japanese buyers and treasuries not stemming the selloff. they may not come in the way they have in the past. can you talk abo

jonathan: the date it in the u.k. of consumer confidence is at a new low and retail sales are softer. inflation starts to hurt the consumer and the consumer starts to feel bad and then it shapes what the consumer does. when you start to hike into weakness, the currency falls, it does not rally. tom: this is a friday where we are trying to slip into the weekend. i've got sterling under $1.29. that is a well statistic. jonathan: a one point 2% move this morning. lisa: it has accentuated the concern saying even if rates go up at the bank of england as much as people expect, it's not going to cause the currency to strengthen because we are talking about hiking into a slow down. this is really the dilemma that central angst have around the world. you heard that to some degree yesterday at the imf meeting. jonathan: we are obsessed with the front end of the yield curve and the hawkish talk. what's happening with the long and with inflation expectations? even with all this hawkish talk, breakeven is going the other way. lisa

but so far, so good jonathan: -- but so far, so good. jonathan: wonderful to catch up with you. salida subramanian there. let's go to the jp morgan of. they trimmed their earning estimates on apple, but they are still overweight, but they still have a $210 price target on the name. tom: matt winkler, one of the first things he said to me was i just don't get the sell side. over at jp morgan, they are talking about earnings softness, littlewood of angst which will be picked up huge by the media. his price target is higher than ives, still with. jonathan:jonathan: an overweight because -- still with an overweight. jonathan: because the price target has not changed. tom: you've got to be more nuanced to get perspective. jonathan: as we go through the piece, you talk about consumer spending. something we talked about with dan ives is just the resilience of the high-end smartphones, the resilience of tablets, the resilience of laptops and a broader slowdown in consumer spending. lisa: on one hand, companies increasingly allowing workers to be flexible. then there's the tale of higher

jonathan: dollar-yen. in the face of some verbal intervention from the japanese minister who said we are monitoring with a strong sense of vigilance. that's falling on deaf ears in foreign exchange. tom: it is. there needs to be an education on the long term devaluation. what did japan do? they devalued the yen to keep the house of cards going. the devaluation is 56% calculated by the imf going back to 1995 and in that period in u.s. dollars, the japanese index is up 13% and 27 years and the s&p 500 is up to 745%. that's all you need to know. jonathan: it's not about what the japanese authorities are doing, it's about what they are not doing. they are not going to be joining that fed rate hike. tom: the whole thing here is we are finally where we have known we were going for years. the separation from japan is here. jonathan: good morning to you all. futures recover on the s&p. essentially unchanged on the nasdaq as well. yields keep climbing by three or four basis points. the significance of getting close

jonathan: up on the s&p.m new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon, so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries! this phone? fewer concert tickets. this phone? more concert tickets. and not just for my shows. switch to xfinity mobile for half the price of verizon. that's a savings of over $500 a year. switch today. jonathan: futures bouncing back this morning, good morning. s&p 500 futures up 1%. nasdaq up .9%. on the month coming into today, down hard. the nasdaq down 12 percentage points, heading to the biggest monthly drop heading back to 2008. that is the equity picture. later we hear from facebook. tomorrow, amazon, apple. elsewhere, looking at the bond market, just a classic risk off store yesterday. yields lower, equities down. today's, equities up, yields higher. five days ago we were 20 basis points north of this level on a two-year, pushing 2.80. going into the

jonathan: so far it is action versus words. in that environment, action often wins out, and it is the action of the boj waiting out at the moment. lisa: they are going to try to control this yield curve. at what point do they on the market? at what point do they have to capitulate to the concerns of the foreign ministry? jonathan: well said. it is no longer a market. has not been has it? futures up 1.5% on the s&p. helped out by the earnings story from facebook. then it is onto amazon, it is on to apple. yields coming in a couple of basis points. crude a little bit lower, $101.43, down 0.6%. lisa: we get a data dump out of the united states at 8:30 a.m. u.s. first core gdp and pce, the classic inflation gauge looked at by the fed, likely rising further here. i am trying to understand what potential weakness could mean going forward. we had tom porcelli of rbc overnight saying it could be a negative print, and even though everyone is expecting this and it is trade related and people will look past it, it is still a market talkin

jonathan: that was charles evans.rom new york city this morning, the equity market is shaping up as follows. the s&p 500 up .1%. the nasdaq down almost .1%. netflix is down only 7% after a wildness yesterday, projecting even more pain for the quarter. may 11, that is how long you have to wait until walt disney. a few weeks away. tom: i am focused on the mourner discovery pat, what they do with whatever the debt number is. i take the point on disney and the rest of them, but wow, mourner-discovery, the merger of 47 networks. jonathan: cnn plus, you have to wonder what will happen with that. tom: and animal planet. i have like seven things i am doing. jonathan: have football on paramount, hulu for formula one. it is getting messy. tom: december 1, 2022, you'll remember this conversation. 100 pages that jamie dimon will read at jp morgan, an exceptionally brave document on energy. christyan malek joins us now, director of global energy. he has written an absolute mandate for the superiority and continuation of hydrocarbo

jonathan: amh ndc alongside maria tadeo.ave been asking this year whether the calendar is on the president's side when it comes to inflation. on year-over-year inflation, i think it will could be. they be a little bit of leakage into spring, into q2. but from beyond, things could get better. cannick better enough -- can it get better enough? can inflation come down to 4%, 5%? that is a big ask. tom: that helps them and november. jonathan: yield up four basis points, 2.8747%. on the nasdaq, up 1.2%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now, there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. jon

jonathan: jp morgan is down year 17%.it comes to spending the need to start to show next week with returns will be on that spending. the regionals, you would think higher rates would help them out. not so if you believe this economy will be weaker over the next 12 months. it is a forward look on that we need from the earnings. tom: i'm not even going to mention the name of the bank because it does not matter, they're not a big bank. they are down very much the jp morgan equivalent. i'm trying to do the math and real-time. they are down 26% versus 70% on jp morgan. -- versus 17% on jp morgan. jonathan: throw in the homebuilders in the transport. morgan stanley is doubling down on defensive's for this reason. tom: one of our staff had to move from buffalo to washington and she had to move fancy. $900 to fly from buffalo to washington. jonathan: getting expensive. the cost of the flights are through the roof at the moment. tom: everyone knows that. we welcome all of you as we jump forward. a spirited conversation to end the

jonathan: a clinic, as always.eciate your time, bill dudley, former new york fed president, now a bloomberg columnist. tom: force is the keyword. i would suggest people who would push against dr. dudley, like dr. blanchflower at dartmouth is one example, who would say horse and cart and who pushes who? corporations and the markets, will they react ahead of the fed? that is the big debate. jonathan: markets are reacting. another leg lower on the s&p. tom: look at the dow. jonathan: yields are higher by eight basis points. 10 year 2.6294. this is bloomberg. ♪ reporter:ex oligarch says from vladimir putin's perspective, russia is already at war with the u.s. and the west. because of sanctions and arm shipments to ukraine, putin views russia as fighting the west on ukrainian soil. a summit with xi jinping, china did not want to discuss the war in ukraine. in hong kong, an official once to run for the top job. media reports china's liaison office says he has beijing's blessing. one of the most comprehensive work from ho

jonathan: i will take a pass.e's not exactly taking a low profile as he negotiates this particular deal. futures down about 0.7% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, down 0.8%. a massive week for big tech this week. we will hear from microsoft and alphabet tomorrow. earnings from facebook on wednesday, apple on thursday. the main event this morning, a shakeout off the back of what is happening in china, the lockdown spreading potentially from shanghai to beijing. that takes treasury yields lower and crude lower. twitter up more than 5% in the premarket to $51.50. that gets your attention. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ this is xfinity rewards. our way of saying thanks, with rewards for the whole family! from epic trips... to the original jurassic park... on us. join over 3 million members and start enjoying rewards like these, and so much more in the xfinity app! and check out jurassic world: dominion, in theaters june 10th. jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning to you all. a shakeout in the eq

jonathan: federal authorities said mr. hwang used archegos as an instrument of manipulation and fraud. we have to break down the charges and see how easy or hard they will need to prove. tom: when i look at this and the follow on, one of the parts of the debris is credit suisse today hit a new low under seven swiss franc's per share. still damaged by the scandal. jonathan: and they'll be watching this closely. the epicenter of this, acquired leverage. was that a legal or perfectly legal? that will be a factor in this that i'll be pretty interested in. tom: we are looking at the document right now. everybody will wade through the documents quickly. lisa, your thoughts? lisa: it will be interesting to see what they go after in terms of leverage given the fact that he had 1.5 billion dollars in actual ownership, already $5 billion exposure, also how this factors into the banking sector considering a lot of the losses were born by credit suisse and nomura. tom: paul linda and bulgaria cut off from the russian gas. moments ago,

jonathan: on june 15, a 75 basis point move. they think another 75 basis point move and they think that comes up to a 50 point basis move. we know the goal of the federal reserve. get back to neutral and get there quickly. what is important is what you do after that. tom: the timeline here is nonlinear and i am suggesting what really matters happens in three meetings. jonathan: we have already seen the peak of cpi potentially. maybe it is in a month, maybe another month. it is around the first or second quarter. from there, you will get lower inflation. that is what most people anticipate. that is one side of the story. the second part is the more important part. it is how above target inflation will be next year. whether it has a four or a five handle and whether this fed will tolerate that. that is where the division on this fomc is going to grow. there will be some who want to take it above neutral and others who do not want to, some who will be ok targeting above inflation and some who will be uncomfortable. tom: some of the

jonathan: i think he might do.ould not try to get into the business of working out what he thinks. lisa: i think the edit button is part of the conversation. that is part of crowdsourcing news standards. these are some of the discussions you have in the newsroom. do you edit a story, do you correct it? all of these things are basically being crowd sourced and he's been a very vocal voice. jonathan: let's see who the republicans are happy with and washington, d.c. i think it is the beginning of something bigger, and the edit button, that is a media distraction. tom: you've got to see who comes in here. when you look at the function, mr. musk clearly at the top of the pile of who owns twitter. right now at the top of the pile of wage analysis is tom porcelli, chief u.s. economist at rbc capital markets. it is percolating that wage growth, maybe it is subsiding. what is the take on your meat and potatoes wage growth? tom p: good morning to you all. it is good to be with you. it has been interesting. if you look at the

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. your equity market shaping up as follows this tuesday morning. up a little bit more than 0.1% on the s&p, up 0.25% on the nasdaq 100. yields up by three basis points. 2.838% on the 10 year. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. ukraine says russia has launched a full-scale offensive to take control of the dundas area in the eastern part of the country. russia has made capture of the donbass its main goal in the war since it has failed to seize the capital kyiv. st. louis fed president james bullard says the central bank should not rule out increases of 75 basis points to fight inflation. in a presentation, the council of foreign relations, bullard says the fed needs to raise rates quickly get he also said the talk of recession is premature. most major u.s. airlines are no longer requiring passengers and employees to wear masks on domestic and some international flights. the airline industry has lobbied

jonathan: can i just jump in here?ee the data change and then i don't see any changes whatsoever. do you still need the extra space between rate purchases and rate hikes? jump back in. >> just look at the large changes in the ecb monetary picture since december. we made decisions which were not universally appraised at the time about the purchases including the announced end of the past purchases at the end of march. in terms of step one, scaling down the purchases kamala has already happened stop step two is not only ending the past but concluding those purchases. we signaled the strong expectation that this is coming up in our last sequence is the issue about moving interest rates the story is not the issue of moving away from 0.5 for the deposit rates. we have to still be data-dependent for that. it's the scale and the timing of normalization. we talk about the high uncertainty and it's occurring everywhere. there are mixed dynamics in the euro area. in the near term, the risk is very high. on the other hand, the hi

jonathan: go for it, tk. jonathan: monday morning.e are hitting the ground running on tv and radio. this is bloomberg surveillance. price action aggressively lower in china, down more than 5%. equities lower in europe. lower stateside. the nasdaq down .6%. the s&p also down .6%. concerns of lockdowns from shanghai to beijing sending yields lower on the 10 yellow -- on the 10 year. crude had a look at a $96 handle comic $97.27. tom: blackstone to buy ps ps business parks. it does not end. jonathan: dealmakers are making deals. elon musk is a dealmaker. the offer is $54.20. there's a conversation about a deal -- about a deal getting done as soon as today. he is still looking for co-investors. tom: 28 million square feet in the ps business parks. dealmakers are doing what they do, they keep going. jonathan: did you just do that again? the square footage? tom: 28 million total square feet. jonathan: the voice? tom: i cannot do that again. andrew hollenhorst will save us. the chief economic density group. there is a phillips curve, now the

jonathan: we are not far away. people listening are thinking about what they should do to their equity exposure. it is a host -- is it a wholesale reduction across the board? in the homebuilders, we have seen it at the transports. what should they be doing? lee: i would be reducing -- i am naturally a bear -- naturally bearish on equities. it is just the way i am. i would be really looking at. we have that bouts -- we had that bounce in march. if they start at $40 billion, $50 billion a month, which is feasible, then that will be a lot to swallow and that will push real rates quickly and that will be bad news for equities across the board. you think back to late 2018, there was no discretion. everything went down. that is the playbook you have to start looking at. that is the only qt playbook we have. that is the one you have to start looking at. jonathan: why are things so depressing on these bond desks? what is this all about, lee ferridge? lisa: you did not even let him respond. lee: it is being english and an e

jonathan: thank you.ot ahead for the federal reserve. -- saying the eu must do more to stop the atrocities in ukraine, must stop the pressure on russia, went on to say that on sanctions, nothing is off the table. he was also saying we are expecting a slowdown, not a recession. tom: ims teachers. you mentioned something an hour and a half ago -- the talk of europe. i go back to the military effort, where russia has moved away from certain geographies, no doubt to pick up strength in other geography and what is the response of ukraine. that is more important than jobhunting. jonathan: we are having the same conversation each and every time and each and every time, the europeans fall short of doing something on energy. you hear out of europe that there is not much left apart from energy. kailey: you contain existing sections when it comes to swift, but not any blowout sanctions that could have some impact. when we hear him saying we expect a slowdown, not a recession, is energy what makes that difference? th

jonathan: they can bark all they want. this is the most dovish central bank we have seen in history, bar none. futures -0.3% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. elon musk's 21 billion dollar mystery. where will he get the cash to buy twitter? musk has agreed to blighted -- to buy the platform. he's worked out how the financing will work, but he's been short on details on how he will cover the $21 billion equity portion he has personally guaranteed. he could sell some of his tesla stock. russian minister sergei lavrov warns there is a serious danger of new gear conflict over ukraine. lavrov told russian to be the risk cannot be underestimated. he signaled that the kremlin is willing to talk to the u.s. to try to resolve the confrontation. the biden administration wants to widen access to pfizer's promising covid therapy bills. starting this week, tens of thousands of pharmacies will be able to order the pill, and the administra

jonathan: china the weak spot. the pandemic restrictions and the access to chips still a big factor. lisa: but they can offset that with price increases. to me, one of the most notable things he said was that there still is incredibly strong demand and they will continue to probably raise prices throughout the year because of this. how much can they do this before you get pushback, considering the fact that this is a supply shortage, it is fundamental, and it is across-the-board, and the issues in china are only exacerbated? jonathan: drumroll, get ready for a hard landing. that is the view for deutsche bank. we will catch up with matt luz zetti of deutsche bank. first quarter gdp and initial jobless claims and a read of pce and personal consumption. mike mckee mckee of bloomberg joining us very shortly. yields higher by three or four basis points. euro-dollar -0.6%, and dollar-yen to the moon. this is bloomberg. ♪ what's it like having xfinity internet? it's beyond gig-speed fast. so gaming with your niece, has ne

jonathan: looking forward to it. we all expect a 50 basis point move from the federal reserve and then maybe another 50? what happens after summer, what happens when we get to what they think is neutral? tom: i didn't get to it with one of our guests this morning, but we will do it now. how hard do we focus on july 27, september 21, november 2? by november 2, sterling will be at parity. jonathan: i have no idea where it will be by the end of the year. when the numbers come out from apple, amazon, the numbers look decent from apple. then make it this fluffy guidance about what will happen in q3. not great. tom: lisa, help us out. the fluffy guide is the mystery of china. lisa: it is broad-based and significant in terms of worry. when you talk about looking out into the future, there were 200 missions of recessions so far in earnings calls. even though we were talking about sustained momentum right now in the consumer. tom: let's go back to may 4, the press conference, big deal, let's assume it is 50 basis points and t

i am jonathan ferro. futures up .5% on the s&p. kicking off q2 with payrolls just around the corner. the range anywhere from zero up to 700,000. that is the range of estimates for payrolls this morning. tom: it will be a lot about wage growth and wage dynamics. the jobs report around the may 4 fed meeting is the mystery of demand destruction given the way prices are moving up in america. jonathan: inflation is skyhigh. on april 12, the next cpi, then onto may 4. the 50-basis point move from this fed. tom: this is massively not linear. i'll it dr. l arian and others talk about this. this 50 point move is not like the third or fourth or whatever andrew hollander's is talking about. jonathan: it's a consensus call for 50 back to back. that is the call on the street. i don't know a single bank that does not believe that. lisa: how much that does affect the narrative. frankly whether risk markets have priced this in. we were talking before this year about how an increase of the stature at this pace would disrupt capital markets dramatic

jonathan: i'm not there. jonathan:for the 50 basis point move in early may this needs to tell the fed not to rather than tell them they should. 50 basis points, the whole of wall street is behind that view. tom: i say, lisa, that the political backdrop of this jobs report is seen in a gallon of gas, but now percolating into all of the inflation of america. it is a different labor economy. lisa: the conversation is about the hot labor market, the good news that we are hearing out of the economic data. and then the sentiment of consumers is low and lower because of gas prices and inflation. how do you respond to that when it is not crimping consumer demand enough to be a self-fulfilling cycle? tom: apple computer, 178 and at the end of the quarter 178. i guess it was a boring quarter. let's get to our esteemed guest . what an odd quarter for equities. jonathan: ending with a massive month of gains, including apple. the nasdaq 500, up.30 minutes away from your payroll support. 98 .82 on wti. tom: we will be join

jonathan: prepare for a hard landing. lisa: the issue for me is not whether there will be a hard landing, it is when. we are going to get a recession at some point. whether the fed can orchestrate this in a less deep recession seems to be more the call ahead. jonathan: let's get to the price action. equity futures are doing ok on the s&p. futures up by .4%. the nasdaq 100 up by almost half a percent. yields come back a little bit, down seven basis points. 2.8686. netflix getting absolutely hammered. down by 27.4% this morning in the premarket. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. let's get to first word news. russia is calling this the second phase of the war in ukraine. early indication that it could go better for russia than the first. forces are looking to circle the eastern area and hauled as much as 40% of ukrainian troops in the region. china says it will keep boosting to teach it ties with russia, as a diplomat indicates, the relationship remains sol

jonathan: brent crude up 1%.g up on foreign exchange. ♪ >> even though the recovery has been stronger and faster, i expect the balance sheet to shrink more rapidly than the previous recovery. jonathan: governor brainard shaking things up in this bond market. futures negative. yields high yesterday by 15 basis points. tom: the four-day chart real yield, we vaulted out to a new lesser negative statistic on the 10 year real yield. i am not on the zero watch yet but that is a wild statistic. jonathan: we turned around quickly. tom: we will watch the yields through the morning. part of that is stronger dollars. that blended index out near 100. this is a joy. all sorts of international duties, truly an expert on southeast asia, in the note, something short-term we have not mentioned, and that is the small matter of emmanuel macron and madeline le pen -- are you suggesting that is driving weak euro? >> that is one of the factors. thank you for having me. europe is so exposed to the russian crisis. under the radar, we ha

jonathan, i want to start with you. there was so much news about these white house call logs, a big mystery here. what's the significance of these missing call logs given the fact that there is still so much that lawmakers are trying to figure outbout january 6? jonathan: obviously the january 6 committee is trying to figure out exactly what the president was doing that day as his supporters were storming the capitol. and we know from media reports, from accounts offered by lawmakers and aides that he was working the phones for at least part of that day, that he had retreat for the most part, a private dining room just off the oval office. he's in there and a bank of televisions and watching what was going on and per witnesses seemingly pleased by a lot of what he saw, and we know he was making phone calls. but yet knows calls aren't showing up in the logs. that's raising a lot of questions. now, we know and michael covered the trump white house as well that he was prone to using his personal cell phone. he was prone so

judy: how do you look at these numbers, jonathan? paying attention to the latino numbers. i went to the african-american numbers because the african-americ vote is the base of the democratic party. it is the base of president biden. that is why he is president, yet his standing among black voters, his approval rating is 64%. that should raise alarm bells in the white house, if it hasn't already. i think it is because of no movement on voting rights, no movement on criminal justice reform. we will see what happens. who knows what people will care about in october? may be president will get a bump up when justice ketanji brown jackson takes the oath of office for the supreme court. to mimic david, a second thing leapt out at me, the inflation numbers, crime numbers, and national security numbers, all not in the democratic party's favor, particularly inflation and crime are "emotional issues." people go to the ballot box. my earpiece just fell out, everyone. [laughter] if the administration cannot talk to the american people convincingl