we have seen the jp morgan index dripping down since september of last year.t has been a very tough year for everybody. but going into august, it should recover by two percentage points from below. year-to-date, we are still down 10% that we are relieved that the market is stabilizing from here and that is the good news. obviously, the one people -- the one that is important for recovery, high-yield in asia is still lacking because of issues in the china property market now. david: right, i was going to get to that. you mentioned we are near the end of the tightening cycle than the beginning. renew your enough to jump to valuable right now? is the value on the high-yield end of the spectrum? >> i think the key thing we have to understand it's also about fundamentals. in terms of valuations, the sector looks cheap, but the other part we have to understand is that as much as we think we are near the end of the cycle, we are still talking about economics continuing to slow down. the downside is still there. the concern on credit fundamentals is still going to be

is jp morgan ceo jamie dimon right in saying there's some truth to china's claim that the u.s.zy. results at the end of the hour. cannot wait to see how that turns out. >>> up ahead, kobe bryant's widow vanessa testified in federal court yesterday against los angeles county having brought suit because of first responders who circulated grisly photos of the helicopter crash scene that killed her husband and daughter. the sharing of those pictures we can all agree gross and indefensible. here is the harder question, why do people look? formulated with nourishing, prprebiotic oat. itit's clinically proven to moisturize dry skin for 24 hours. aveeno® i brought in ensure max proteinin, with thirty grams of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks! [sighs wearily] woo-ho ensure max protein. with thirty grams of protein, one gram of sugar, and now with two new flavors! monster was attacking but the team remained calm. because with miro, they could problem solve together, and find the answer that was right under their nose. or... his nose. we strip in the communit

they just think it is jp morgan.tiful walk-through of how different rights of a major bank and all of the major banks can disagree with each other. they agree to disagree. jonathan: different views. tom: yeah. jonathan: walmart's ceo is speaking right now. lisa, we might have seen more middle and long-term shutters according to the ceo. lisa: which is a benefit for them considering the fact that they want the higher margin items, not just the grocery items. how much are they going to compete with amazon? we didn't even talk about a paramount plus purchase by walmart to try to get subscriptions up. tom: -- mustard at walmart is $5.83. jonathan: you tune into paramount plus for italian football. lisa: are you getting the walmart inscription? jonathan: i don't know what that is. i would have to have walmart prime? do i get free italian football? i will try. walmart is up in the free market. from new york, this is bloomberg. leeann: keeping you up-to-date with newsom around the world, the european union said a proposed b

if you look at mark: at jp morgan, sticking with the bu ll case, for 800 level on the s&p 500.n 18% rise from the close on friday for the s&p 500. he did mention that up to seasonality factors in the midterm elections, that will call some volatility. jp morgan they can we will see potentially a rebound in the second half. jon: thanks very much. let's go deeper. capital managing director joining us. what can you tell us about positioning? shaheen: --amy: we continue to expect volatility will rise from here. there are a lot of other reasons we think the end of the year will drive it. historically that doesn't tend to be good for stocks. if you look the vix, september and october is where you usually see it rise, at least for the last 10 years. katie: is at work -- worth -- is it worth hedging? amy: volatility has misbehaved. if you look today, even though we had a downdraft in the market, it is about the path taken to get there. i think that is why going back to question, you haven't really seen that many more hedges placed. that is not to say positioning will not be put aside as

jp morgan, bond markets are still mispriced.ake a listen. >> i'm looking now at credit spreads in the mid-for hundreds, and they just looked too expensive to me. they do not seem to adequately price in recession risk. i think we, by year end, will go back up to the old highs of around 600 over. i also do not think the market is adequately pricing in quantitative tightening. i would like to see a couple months of that's, see what the up the appetite for the market did i just bonds when they are coming out of the fed left right and center. taylor: kelsey berro, matthew hornbach, jim bianco still with us. it is interesting bob michele pulls in dimensions and pulling -- how are you thinking about the lack of spreads widening approaching qt and high-yield markets signaling to the equity markets things may not be that bad? kelsey: yeah, so what we are thinking is spreads in that 400 range is not appropriately compensating you for the risk of a recession or landing. that, earlier in the summer, prescott as wide as 600 to 650 and at tha

jp morgan by, have you position around these energy risks?adison: when you think about it right now, there is this reserves that had the colder months. we think europe is going to have adequate energy reserves to get through the winter, one that involves rationing. the high risks around rationing. the near-term picture is difficult. that is why recession risk is not binary. i much prefer to think about the longer-term opportunities that surrounding the issues we face. i think that relates to the energy transition. we will see it simultaneously in provisional and renewable electricity, we will see huge investment in the energy sector, both fossil fuels -- in areas like renewable energy value chain. francine: is there anything that would cut to the dollar strengths, anything at all? madison: the u.s. dollar tends to strengthen when global growth is weakening and we have to rely on the federal reserve to hike and higher interest rates to support the dollar. i think in order to seats of the u.s. dollar strength come out of the price, you would ne

you can take a look at that, jp morgan sees a chance to capitalize on where we go from here, jp morganicking with the risk, they see the prices of equities rising, because of this they are also underweight on fixed income and cash. shery: it is interesting to see the speculative part of the market come back. we are seeing that on trade. we hear about bitcoin, where is that going? annabelle: we did actually have an exclusive interview with the founder of galaxy digital holdings, very well-known crypto bull, hate lost half $1 billion due to the overall declines in crypto, his call is that bitcoin will stay in this price range for an hour for around 20-30,000 dollar range, bitcoin has been tight -- tied to the direction of the fed because they are looking for any move with bitcoin, look at the performance of bitcoin over the past 30 days, it is rising around 12%, a far cry from what we had in november of last year. heidi: let us get more on softbank, the ceo says he is planning to cut costs after a record $23 billion loss in the last quarter. our reporter has been covering softbank and sh

you have the likes of morgan stanley and jp morgan coming out with market calls on debts. jp morgan on the other side of that call saying this is an unsustainable rally and to ditch em debt. let's get more from kathleen hays. for all of these numbers and what they make on the market. the ppi numbers are easing today falling for the first time in two years. >> a big surprise. producer prices are wholesale prices. business-to-business prices. you're looking at the inflation trend, the dynamic further back from the retail sector. when you see this happening and everyone's trying to figure out where the momentum is, this is why it's important. the monthly number was down 0.5% in july. it was expected to be up 1%. it was up 1% in june. it has a lot to do with energy prices and it reflects in the year-over-year numbers. the headline ppi up 9.8% year-over-year but that is down from 11.3% in june. it was expected to come in stronger than that at 10.4%. even the core ppi slowed. stepping back from the numbers, you can see this is a sense of has this peaked out. it's true a lot of t

this is coming from jp morgan. it had been one of the standouts on wall street.y are saying the rebound we saw in u.s. stocks is going to be extended here. it will be driven by growth stocks and for that pullback we are seeing in bond yields. let's look at what the bears are same. this is being led by the team of michael wilton. we are looking at a few factors for u.s. stocks to slide into the second half there. the move we are seeing higher is just a bear market. they're looking at the macro backdrop. you have earnings at that corporate backdrop as well. that is looking a little bit weaker. it is also about tightening ahead. cross quantitative tightening is something that bank of america is looking at. >> they have been looking at this bond repurchase program. what it means for the u.s. stocks and where we go from here. all of this as the program extends. the reason for that is down to the historical relationship between the fed program and u.s. stocks. they are saying the fed balance sheet has taken a bit of a backseat as other issues have come to the forefront

heidi: jp morgan's warning about the ripple effects of a fed qt program.t us bring in annabelle for morning calls. annabelle: we have two big movers, jp morgan cio's says -- cio says spreads are looking too expensive. they are not reflecting precision risks. the other big interview with michael wilson says he is concerned about the outlook. the fed is tightening into a recession. saying that the idea of the fed being at the end of its pivot cycle is not the case. take a listen. >> we have a negative payroll data because household data is already negative. they only start slashing rates. has a problem with that narrative is that it is not going to be good for earnings and it will not be good for stock prices. annabelle: equities have stuck in that fielding range, michael wilson also telling us that anyone calling above that irresponsible. shery: we are hearing a call from invesco warning about the outlook for oil and food as well? annabelle: essentially what invesco is saying that anyone who is hoping for oil and food prices to stabilize so they can go up i

of euros paid jp morgan continues to cooperate with authorities.. regulators have pit companies including alibaba to be part of the first batch of exceptions after a lengthy impasse. inspections will take place in hong kong next month. general motors joint venture in china is selling a premium electric convertible. consumers will have to enter a lottery, only 200 of the car will be built each month. it's excited to be price between 15,000 to $29,000. that's your latest business flash. anna: let's take a look at where we are in european markets. we have four minutes to go for the european close prayed we've european equity markets on the back foot. down on the stoxx 600 and ftse 100. down by just over 1%. u.s. stocks are under a little bit of pressure. much more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back. let's see where we are as we head towards the close of the european markets. the picture for european stocks is pretty negative, down by 1.2%. some of the peripheral markets also coming through with some of the worst of the losses today. ea

jon: and you think about how sam bankman-fried has been positioned as the jp morgan of crypto.jp morgan in the sense people are drawing parallels to previous periods of uncertainty and his willingness to jump in and provide capital support for an industry that is very young. some of those early investments has been challenged because the industry is dealing with challenges. kriti: still very young but one in which the volatility is declining. that is going to be good news for anyone looking at bitcoin as a macro asset. speaking of, let's take a quick market check. the s&p 500 bouncing off session lows, down 4/10 of 1%. the nasdaq down 3/10 of 1%. we are seeing a risk off move ahead of payrolls. for jon erlichman, i am kriti gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! yes you can! i can do better, too! no

jp morgan himself use to go out and say, i will bailout certain companies. you were called the jp morgan of crypto. does that bother you? >> not too much. it is something i felt was the right thing for the industry. we were very explicit that we have a team of people working on this with your goal not to make a fortune during this. your goal is to do ok deals, not get our faces ripped off. contingent to that, do as much as we can to pay out the industry. the higher goal was trying to back out places other than maximizing on the deal. i would have loved other people to do it. >> you went in and bought companies. where those investments profitable? >> i think some will turn out to be profitable and someone not be. one, wager, $17 million we put in there. i'm not sure if we are seeing that again. we had to make snap judgment calls. we made them such that if these turned out well they would be good investments and if they turned out badly they would be bad investments, but we limited the amount we could lose from it. >> fdx ceo they're speaking with carlyle grou

jp morgan says some of the interest rate sensitive stocks could see more momentum in the near term. they are looking at the shape of the yield curve and the argument they seem to be making is that it has to been received but for value to take the lead in this market again. your reaction? max: there is rationale and saying you would need the curve to the reese people in the four traditional value to be better, but we have to think about this beyond this common factor notions. it is about profit, margins the most, so if you are looking for companies who are going to be resilient to the headwinds we will be facing into 2023, i would look for companies with resilient balance sheets, with margins that will not get pressured by either a demand slowdown or a -- or continued supply chain issues. also, companies that do not have a lot of leverage on their balance sheets. that will help straddle growth sectors like biotech as well. taylor: with your work with ai and charter programs, is the big issue those type two errors, avoiding the how to lose money. is that more of an issue right now? ma

that we got on friday, you have seen several comment -- several areas increase expectations produce jp morganncrease expectations to 75 basis points as the fed ties to tackle this sense of inflation. one thing i will point out that was a sign of good news for inflation expectations, we got a survey today that showed expectations for one year ahead and three years ahead has actually come down a bit, while there are still quite high it does show this idea of entrenched inflation expectations, those concerns are abating a bit. john: outside of the market reaction to the jobs report last week and the signs we saw there on hoping keep the economy chugging along, on the consumer report, what can you tell us about that? reade: you saw a surge in consumer credit last friday. this is essentially looking at how much americans are borrowing , whether credit cards or student loans and car loans, and you saw another substantial month of a big pickup in credit. what this shows us is you have a consumer that continues to spend, even in the face of the high inflation, but the high inflation is leading a lot

e, jp morgan is relatively bullish as a strategist on wall street. pe on the nasdaq 100 in yellow, and yellow the line at 23.4, 10-year average. in purple, s&p 500 forward pe. marco klein average is making the point that it is below the 10-year average and it makes the valuations of the s&p 500 attractive. not so attractive is the dow transports, down 2.8% at this point, worst day in quite a few and the lowest level in seven weeks. masen down. the logistics company put up a very strong quarter, but it was downgraded for reasons i will be looking into, really weighing on shares. jetblue is down 6.1%. higher fuel costs weighing on the profits. wider loss than expected. investors not liking it. transportation sector truly underperforming. guy: absolutely. ii will bei speaking to the ceo jetblue later on. they are distracted by the spirit story. let's focus on what is happening in taiwan. you are looking at a live shot from taipei. we understand that nancy pelosi's jet -- we think it is nancy pelosi's jet -- it is now in taiwanese airspace. we are gettin

on people applying for car loans, mortgages and credit cards to the banks and lenders including jp morgan chase, wells fargo. consumers were offered more results in their application being rejected. equifax says it fixed the error caused by a software coding glitch. they keep credit reports on 200 million u.s. consumers, guys. >> that's a mistake but sticks with people. i don't trust it gets purged from the system altogether. really unfortunate. >> i know. that's what i was thinking too, yeah. >> thank you. >>> all right local shops are feeling the brunt of the rise of inflation. ahead on today in the bay, the reason one bay area shop owner says customers will also have to pay for that rising cost of products. we'll be right bac we'll be right bac k. moving forward with node- positive breast cancer is overwhelming. but i never just found my way; i made it. and did all i could to prevent recurrence. verzenio reduces the risk of recurrence of hr-positive, her2-negative, node-positive, early breast cancer with a high chance of returning,... as determined by your doctor when added to hormone

jp morgan is focusing on the idea that the hardest yards have been done in the inflation fight, and if you do think the fed ends up hiking about 50 basis points in september and then starts to slow from their, given some of the resilience -- from there, given some of the resilience we've seen in the earnings space and how stocks of bounced back very strongly, even for a bear market squeeze, then you would think it would be a good time to buy equities. a lot depends on the timeframe. if you're thinking and a couple of years time, it is unlikely equities will be significantly lower and that is your timeframe, you might want to go without because the bond market honestly is more volatile than equities at the moment. equities almost look, dare i say, safer. haidi: yeah. more than 100 basis points already this year. we've seen it translate to dollar volatility. remember when we were talking about the dollar peaked perhaps because we saw some weakness. we have haven flows again supporting the greenback. garfield: we do. there was a lot of concerning news in the recent few days and also a big

euro-dollar still subpar and jp morgan bankers saying we could hit 114 if the gas crisis continues in united kingdom. not just gas, but electricity crisis. $114. neel kashkari says action from central banks are still very much needed in the fight against inflation. that comes despite fresh data showing business activity in the u.s. contracting for the second straight month in august. bloomberg chief asia economics correspondent enda curran joins me on the hawkish narrative from the arched of kashkari -- the arch dove kashkari. layout for me how perilous the moment is within the global economy. >> there does seem to be a synchronized slowdown now that is deepening by the day. we have u.s. pmi down. new orders, that is interesting because of course the strong u.s. jobs market has been a bulwark. in europe of course pmis are buckling under the weight of skyhigh energy costs. in age of the slowdown has been led by china. australia services contracted for the first time in seven months. the slowdown in manufacturing, it does speak to the impact of surging inflation and surging interest rat

we do that with george chang -- joyce chang, chair of jp morgan research.his is bloomberg. ♪ this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. tom: bloomberg surveillance. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jon ferro off until tomorrow. kailey leinz with us this morning. let's look at the market. dow futures up 85. the vix is solid. lisa, what you see in the bond space? lisa: the quiescence is amazing. 3.2%. you see a bid in across the board as people reassess how far the fed is willing to go. also dollar weakness is fascinating. how much of this is a global pipit to an aversion to recession or the u.s. avoiding the worst case scenario. tom: i have to talk about the long-term and i can do that with joyce chang, chair of global research at jp morgan, who put out a seven page special with the rest of jp morgan on the fiscal state of the country. i have to

jp morgan still defending his call, saying, we should be buying. that strategy has worked out.ks that these declines will be short-lived. we are heading into jackson hole. a lot of ill agility possible across -- volatility possible across these markets. there have been mounting concerns that the semiconductor demand is sending morning signs to the global economy. they have been warning of shrinking demand and announcing plans to dial back investment. after the scribble for chips during the pandemic, there are now concerns that the industry could be heading for its worst downturn in decades. to decide what this all means for the sector, we are joined by william de gaulle. there has been a little bit of conflicting signals. you hear from the mike rounds, nvidia saying they are concerned about demand. they think demand is holding up. where are we in terms of a potential turn of demand for the chip sector? william: the semiconductor industry isn't a single block. it has huge variety within it. there wasn't a memory shortage as a result of covid. there isn't much to catch up on. sem

jp morgan thinks the last big hike, 75 basis points, that we are going to get an easing off.e: they've been playing on the energy story, finally clocking up to the thought -- especially if we have a cold winter. those prices are going through the roof in the middle of august. tom: we get to essential reading on oil. there's an energy prices in china as well. the energy prices -- in china, low numbers estate struggle to meet government demand. develop more credit into the economy. it's a story that tells us a lot about what's happening in the economy. let's bring in our senior editor in hong kong. what is driving this inflation? they are fiddling the books for the regulators to try to show demand for loans or maybe there is a. >> they are certainly creative. it's an interesting development. the chinese banks are in a tight spot right now. on the one hand, they are under pressure to lundmark, to get the economy going, there few companies who want to take out loans given the uncertainty of the economy. bankers say a certain window dressing is going on, with lenders paying the sa

two x jp morgan employees have been convicted in chicago for fixing gold prices. former head of the bank's metal were found guilty. the two will be sentenced next year, both men facing 10 years in prison. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: coming up, searing temperatures, shrub -- shriveling corn crops, we speak energy does europe's energy crisis next. gasoline prices in the u.s. falling below four dollars a gallons of the first time since march. will have a full round up fuels and energy. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open. 30 minutes into the trading day and here are your top stories. stocks surged as inflation comes in softer than expected. the fed has waived that despite the cpi data, the officials plan to stay the course on rate hikes. if you look at the markets, how are they looking, tom? tom: finally some relief. investors in equity markets are on that. that is building on gains we saw in european equities that we saw yesterday. the cpi below the 9.1% we got from the previous month. the sales from hsbc were on with us earl

jp morgan, they look at the data to 1970, ok?say history shows in recessions, equity markets rally by 11%. so you know, there is a catharsis if a recession comes because it emboldens policy decisions, doesn't it? dani: it does. at the same time, you have to wonder. stocks had to catch up. have bonds already gotten there? we have seen a move up in the front end, two years at a 2007 hi. you start talking about peak bonds yet, or is that premature? manus: no, i'm going to show you a bear market. almost a bear market, i should be careful. the gtv library, the global bond index tanking for the first time in a generation, you see a bond market, always a blood red sky, dani burger. dani: that is a painful one. that is a chart you want to save and pull up any time you want to be humbled. "bloomberg markets europe" is next. ♪ this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards lik

we saw the jp morgan representative defending the buying the dip call saying he sees more about buffer for these orchids. what about the dynamics that are at play? >> bonds are a choice for investors now attract relative to equities. because the outlook has become troubled enough that you don't know if you're looking at it in a years time, is the stock market went to be higher? you don't know. everyone expects inflation to be lower but the question is how much and what is driving. bonds construed to look like a good deal -- they can start to look like a good deal considering the two year yield is now higher than where the market sees the cash rate in two years time. that's three have a potential value in buying bonds. that helps to make the outlook for equities which is cloudy anyway even more cloudy. the other thing we saw in the last couple of days is the market tacking more toward the idea that we are going to get 50 basis points next month. 75 is still on the table. that means the consensus is 50. >> you are an investor, it's your last trading day in asia, happy friday everyone. wh

if you look at sector since june, jp morgan has them bullish in the recent days, maybe taking some profit indices are created equal. you can see the banking index over that time period, even with rates up 8.4%, entered a different indices, about small-cap come of 17.7 on the nasdaq. those indices up more than 18%. a pretty strong rally, but the last couple of days eating into those gains. guy: interesting that we see weakness in the chips sector on the day we see the signing of the chips act on the south london at the white house. let's talk about what is happening. a strongest quarter on record beating estimates while travel may have a strong return, session fears weighing on it. here is the hyatt spokesperson had to say. >> we will see continued growth in travel because we are in different phases of travel. others have come back but we are still opening back up. we are having markets opening up today for travel. guy: what is happening with hyatt, mark hoplamazian we have mark hoplamazian -- we have mark hoplamazian joining us now. is this as good as it gets? mark: thank you for having m

industries and companies, jp morgan, the gap, those kinds of big names are also at risk.s going to be inflationary? is this going to accelerate the divorce between china and the united states? >> speaker pelosi and the biden administration have a strong focus on supply chains. especially she represents california, the ports there are huge. she considers the pacific part of her home as well. supply chains are going to be an area of concentration in the united states is very familiar with how much disruption china can impose if they want to. i would think about how gm and ford plants were impacted at the local level in china in response to other tariff changes the united states is putting on so i think those are definitely risks. with the united states has done on this particular issue is passed a $52 billion state subsidized domestic manufacturer semiconductors in the last week. and there is no secret that they are trying to convict taiwan and the netherlands -- convince taiwan and the netherlands to join -- excuse me, japan and the netherlands to join in a semiconductor e

nasdaq, it does feel like sentiment is improving, the resilience of the rally, even the likes of jp morgan cannot agree on where it goes from here. shery: even the meme stocks are back, bed, bath, and beyond surging. this is a retailer, the retail sentiment is improving as well. remember in the spring we were concerned about inventory buildup? things may be concerning when it comes to the guidance, these big names. walmart is beating expectations, the expectations were lower, and indicating -- they are indicating higher demand. perhaps there is a more positive sentiment out there. heidi: let us get more on the markets. we have a u.s. retail reporter 20 us now. -- joining us now. what do you make of this? >> it is really patchy, the earnings from the retailers are positive, they are encouraging investors they u.s. consumers seem to be resilient. that is why we saw those gains in the s&p 500 yesterday. we have to remember there is a lot of had went out there. for us here in asia, what is going on the market here is technology stocks which we saw they fell last night, we have bonds yield risi

jp morgan, best buy, citigroup. seen record buybacks over the past few years, really since the start of the pandemic. about $1 trillion worth of share buybacks from executives here. any retreat really does strengthen what has been a critical crutch for sentiment in the market, given they are facing slowdown fears and inflation concerns. one of them saying this is actually the proper heading. we can take a look at why strategists are saying that. it is really down to the beginning outlook for earnings. and lowered ceo confidence. as for next year, the outlook is looking more uncertain. that is because of a post-u.s. tax stock taking effect. that could open the windows here for companies to fly forward in the second half, though unlikely. >> there's a worthy inflation numbers we have seen in the u.s. might be a head fake. annabelle: that's right. the cio of morgan stanley's wealth management joined the what goes up podcast on bloomberg, talking about the outlook for inflation and those latest cpi numbers. she basicall

jp morgan's note at the desk was, she arrives around 10:20 eastern. if there is no immediate action, expect to see a rip higher. is that something that you think is reasonable to expect? >> yeah. i mean, i don't like this kind of thing. we're making a judgment. and look at the tenure saying we are in trouble. that's what i think. but i also feel the tenure was at what? >> 348 on june 14th. and. >> and finally, interest rates keep going lower. signifying recession, inflation. the analysts i checked in with, and of course, we just heard pershing square is a few. >> plus you got australians hiking 50 overnight. first month in a row. >> everything is going down. every commodity is going down. and like bill ackman did not mention that. i mean, just, he was not here to talk about that. but -- obviously. but every commodity is going down. and yet, everyone seems to acknowledge that every commodity is going down. and i just cannot believe. last night, i had the ceo of adco on. and he said every commodity is going down. but takes time to go through. we are hea

. >> we are talking here about what has been going on with regards to the jp morgan call coming through. it is time to shift away from equities, move towards some of these commodities and some other risky out there -- assets out there as well. tremendous records, mixed case this year. david: it really has been, what they're trying to get at here is the july that we had for u.s. equities, the moving outcome of the shifting out of money. they are saying the balance of risk, rebound still a bit further, we trade element further back. give you an example, the earnings seasons in the asia-pacific we are about 40% of the way. so far one sector has stood out and it is materials, unsurprisingly because of elevated commodity prices. >> we have seen this decline take place, as a consequence we also see petrol prices as we see in europe going down. that has shifted expectations in the u.s.. it is a reassurance to consumers at skyhigh prices will not stay high indefinitely. it has a big impact, kathleen hays more. is this likely to reassure? we are looking at this new york fed survey. >> it has bee

a trading model by jp morgan shows the odds of recession are falling fast.quity, credit in rate markets assigning a 40% chance down from 50%. simon harvey, let him add his voice, he is head of fx analysis, monex europe. the risk of recession is fading, the question is does the dollar fade in syncopation with these rates and percentages? simon: good morning. yes, the risk of recession is marginally falling because markets are ushering in a new period of central-bank policy where we are trying to see acceleration in the fed's hiking cycle, unless we see tension from cpi components from here on in. does that negate the idea that the u.s. is going into recession? i'm not convinced at the moment. i think there is a lot of data from here to the end of the quarter, but the question at the moment is not necessarily is the u.s. in recession but what is the central bank's reaction? they are open to growth conditions but to what extent? we are seeing from the ecb in the bank of england that recession is on the horizon and they have to act now because the lesson they wa

jonathan: what i think about going through these notes, what if marco at jp morgan is right and this continues? they talked about the crowding in effect. sometimes the biggest factor of sentiment is price. lisa: especially when you look at the savings rate, look across the income spectrum, that the upper end, still a lot of people with money getting pay raises and they don't know where to put it. where do they go if not for the market? companies are delivering on their revenues, still growing, so at what point does that become a haven in light of the inflation that will affect some of the bonds? tom: you are going through your notes in the evening? i was watching the padres last night. it was just great. jonathan: 8:00 in the morning. it is late enough for great guest to come on the show. someone like jim zelter? tom: hebought a 747 today. not every day that you buy a 747. jonathan: you can talk to him about it. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. a warning today from the bank of england. it raised

he's got that type of jamie diamond escambia experience and he was very good when it mattered at jp morgan and toiled for about down the line. liz: got pushed out. success is the best revenge. >> he came back. but had the experience to run jpmorgan through the financial crisis. zaslav has that type of experience. a lot is in properties and execution. we'll read about this. a developing story. a best way to put it. whether "the flash," i can't believe he stole liquor. liz: buy it. mike's hard lemonade. not that expensive. i'm a lightweight. thank you, charlie. closing bell, we are six minutes away. the nasdaq having its worst day since july 26th. the dow is on pace to snap a two-day winning streak but as we stress all of this could change tomorrow with that cpi number on inflation. which leaves us to our "countdown" closer, what should we, as we watch all of the sectors be thinking about utilities? they are among the best performing sectors right now. as a recession fear continues to linger. they pay out dividends and everybody still has to turn on the lights every day, right? today's "coun

jp morgan falls right into demand recovery off emerging markets off the pacific rim.s not happening. jonathon: you can't say it's because he just likes to sleep longer. tom: it is. jonathon: that's not a complement to my team. [crosstalking] thanks, i appreciate that. lisa: things are great between you guys this morning. [laughter] i'm going to call dr. phil. jonathon: i am reeling from these forecasts. tom: truly stunning. jonathon: 30 -- 13% cpi. this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. >> when a rally we have seen, the june 16 loan. on the s&p 500, up more than 13%. right now futures positive 5.1% on the s&p. use on the bond market yesterday, how it responded to fed speak. a drop at the long end. curve inversion getting close to -40 basis points at one point this morning. yields up five a basis point or so on the 10 year. more inversion. tom: do the

apple down 1.5% and jp morgan versus web bush.hone 14 says jp morgan and could be driven by limited new features in this phone compared to the 13. they also expect it to cost $100 more. so rumor has it that the new phone, the iphone 14, starts at $799 but the most expensive model will start at $1200. dan ive says b demand is holding regardless and apple gets a $220 price argument and apple place #-d a initial order for 90 million iphone 14s and that's as flat as the 13. this is interesting, the devices are expected to be revealed after labor day, and that's conveniently when apple workers are expected back at their desks, physically in the office, three days a week. some are pushing back saying, look, we're happier and more productive at home. layoffs are another issue. they're happening at ford. they're slashing 3,000 workers as they make this transition to electric vehicles. in an e-mail today ford wrote to staff saying building this future requ requires changing ad shaping aspects in how we've operated for years and as we've di

the more constructive you in 24 hours number that comes from jp morgan.will see what credit suisse thinks about this equity market coming up shortly on this program with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. heard on radio, seen on tv in beautiful new york city. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity. this is xfinity rewards. for smarter trading decisions, our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. >> the reality is the economy is weakening. it will probably weaken further. >> a race between inflation and probab

jp morgan said it's time to sell the company, which shed more than 80% this year. the firm took a bearish stand on the stock. vroom down about 9%. shares of social media company snap is higher by 6.25% right now. company says it's reached a 1 million subscriber mark for subscription service snap chat+. people pay for that. it's $3.99 a month in the united states and the premium service giving subscribers access to exclusive and premium released features and the stock has fallen a little bit year to date but in a bounce right now. oil price haves been falling the last few weeks and brought down the national average for gas. it fell below the $4 mark last week but as prices fall, analysts warn it could spike again like it is in other places. this month saudi arabia raised oil prices for buyers in asia to record levels. jeff locke has insight and how it could be a move for saudi arabia to capitalize on america draining it is inventories to help keep gas cheap. jeff. jeff: indeed. a lot of people are concerned about the drawdown in the strategic petroleum reserve and t

some of these smaller target companies public that may don't have the following to get a bank like jp morgangoldman sachs to underwrite their ipo, and will find ways to get deals across the finish line. but the expectation is that the go-go days we saw in 2020 and 2021 is very much a thing of the past and more of an anomaly. emily: interesting. bailey, thank you for covering that story for us. coming up, how conspiracy theorist alex jones made even more money after being taken down from major social media platforms. we will have more. this is bloomberg. ♪ emily: in the summer of 2018, apple, facebook, spotify, twitter, and youtube all banned the media company of conspiracy theorist alex jones, in fowars. that meant taking down his broadcast, after jones threatened robert muller. they cited content policy violations to deplatform the controversial host, which was supposed to relegate jones to relative obscurity. as it turns out, his business became more lucrative than ever. max took a deep dive at this. how is this even possible? max: there are two things going on. one is that, although the b

jp morgan as i said earlier 75 in september is what they think so how would you respond to that? >> i guess i would respond by saying and i'm going to look up the number but the market shifted from 50 to 75 for september and i'm not sure that is right. it is now 70% probability and i don't think there is a reason to accelerate. goldman has 50 and 225 built in. in my mouth that is 100 additional basis points. a lot of points between now and the end of the year. it is a very strong or aggressive rate hike cycle. i don't think because of this number the need to accelerate because what i have seen, 96,000 jobs added in leisure and hospitality and there is still 1.1 million below where they were. you have the anecdotal evidence. you know, talk about flights being canceled because they don't have a crew so that does not tell you the job market is where it was before and by the way, you bring in more workers into the economy and you increase supply which should be deflation. >> the other thing i noticed is expectations of a cut which the market had been trying to get its head around hav

coming up, we'll be catching up with david leibowitz of jp morgan along with julie beale.t is coming up on bloomberg tv. tom: you probably dive into this transaction of celsius and pepsi. jonathan: what have you learned? tom: riley, thank you for emailing. she is addicted to this garbage. they have kiwi sparkling celsius, they have celsius heat. have you ever had this stuff? lisa: no. [laughter] jonathan: it is a lot of caffeine and ginger root and fortified with german beer. you might say vitamin b and vitamin c. tom: i was just talking about this. congratulations on the transaction. it shows the entrepreneurship. i think a natural for meat would be celsius take an uber. have your beverage while you are taking the uber. jonathan: i've no idea where we are taking this. tom: you take the uber instead of fitness. jonathan: brama has issues with this segment. lisa: would we be having this discussion if you do not think it was crypto? there are acquisitions that are interesting. the idea we are finally seeing activity in the capital markets is interesting. the rally we saw is

the credit markets have perhaps been too bullish, specifically in high yields, and this is what jp morganas saying to us the other day, which is credit is too well behaved. do you agree question what do you think they could move a little bit higher? >> the further down you go, the more sensitive it's going to be to a slow down so we have seen widening spread in the course of this year but i know you have seen a bit less of that in the u.s. compared to europe on the euro side or the serial -- sterling side. that being said if you look at the investment grade, the balance sheets of these companies, you have to pick your way through the high-yield market and see who has got the balance sheets that can take a more people colts economic environment that we will get in the second half of the year for sure. >> you have penned -- i want to pivot to europe easily. you have three rate hikes. the reason why i'm looking down, i want to try and get the energy price. i'm going to ask the producer of this -- to put it in the gtv library so you and i can deal with it. the markets have got three rate hike

and have the crÈme de la crÈme leading the sale including jp morgan and bank of america.they hoping to take advantage of the recent momentum in the market? >> there is definitely a timing issue. you look at the second half of july and the credit market came alive. our bloomberg intelligence analyst said it well. in the first half of this year borrowing money was not an option. apple is in and enviable position where it has a enormous balance sheet. it's cost to debt capital is lower than its cost to equity capital. the timing is right. this is standard for apple. every year you see them go to the debt markets because they can. shery: is there not a better use of cash? >> sources give us the standard boilerplate that the proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes but also per share buybacks and paying dividends. share buybacks reigned supreme but there is the idea of m&a. we were talking about this on bloomberg technology earlier. is m&a the move right now? could you really see apple knowing out and buying a big name in a megadeal? the feedback seems to be not at

there's very expensive things out there and i'm looking at the dower leadership at this very moment, jp morgan is popping dramatically along with goldman sachs and cvs and interpret this higher bond rates, is that good for the financial s? >> it absolutely is. jon said it perfectly if the fed had to make a decision today, they couldn't. they're in a corner. they are absolutely sandwiched into a box. fortunately they're going to get not only two cpi reports before their next meeting in september, they'll get another jobs report. it is really tough, liz, and to just pick a sector, to just pick a sector and say, you know what, this is going to be where you want to be for the next month, next six months based on inflation or based on recession. almost impossible to do because we see the landscape changing on a daily basis. there are two stocks however that i think regardless of what happened going forward in the next quarter, next two quarters, i think can stand out. the first one is avis, c-a-r, stock is in the same place as last november. the results they just had, eye popping. summer travel the

he's not doing this on the backs of vanguard totally or like jp morgan, he's doing this on the backs of the most unsophisticated investors out there. elizabeth: some of those investors would say that as shareholders, they would hope the ceo would do anything legally he possibly could to keep a company afloat. charlie: yes, but you do understand simple math and how you divide up earnings per share and how much a share is worth when you issue more of it. that's called dilution and he should be talking about this is how we're doing it by not doing that, it looks like he's hiding the football on retail. just really does. by the way, if they want to buy it, go for it. realize what you're buying. you're buying more stock in a company with a lot of debt and by the way, if it ever goes into bankruptcy, forget about preferred and because they have so much debt -- one other thing, it's the bondholders. he's essentially bailing out the bondholders here. elizabeth: charlie -- charlie: this cash cushion is for the bondholders. elizabeth: we'll be watching and wakonda forever, black panther. that

back in 2017, the ceo and jp morgan's ceo, jamie dimon, heather doubts about digital assets.e a listen. >> bitcoin just shows you how much demand for money laundering there is in the world. [laughter] that's all it is. it is an index. it is an index of money laundering. [applause] >> i could care less what bitcoin traits were, how it trades, why trades. if you are stupid enough to buy. i told people it could trade at $100,000 before trading to zero. toilet bowls traded for $75,000 or something like that. the only value of bitcoin is when the other guy -- what the other guy will pay for. taylor: the other guy will pay for its. we have migrated from maybe 60,000 on bitcoin down to 20,000. caroline hyde tells me maybe it is an inflation hedge and may a risk on asset as we try to hover around $23,000, $24,000 or so. let's take a look at some of the digital assets and maybe the more tradable assets at least here on a daily basis. if you think about equities, coming off of a pretty big monster rally where highs a little bit but pretty firm footing, off on the dow down about a quart

get more on cisco, and bring in jp morgan's -- what did you make of the earnings, does that give you more optimism for the rest of tech and enterprise demand? >> particularly with cisco, you have to highlight the impressive execution. david was highlighting the prior quarter as well. impressive with execution. both on supply as well as auto if you take longer time period, and put that in context for cisco alone, when the supply constrains of industry were well telegraphed over the last 18 # months, and what you see is cisco starting to come in line with their peers in terms of executing on supply management that's what the investors are cheering here, demand has remained resilient what does it mean for overall enterprise tech when you look at the demand picture, overall one, supply first, does -- starting to see the early signs of easing in the supply chain. it's coming at a higher cost, though, just to note, we've seen this across all cisco and xpos as well. everybody's paying a premium to buy. it's not all great on that front, but that says supply is improving. and revenue through.

led by jp morgan light on specifics at the moment. transactions and the details of it are not yet disclosed but comes as bed bath and beyond shareholders endured a wild ride in august surging nearly 100% month to date. bbby a favorite with the retail investor crowd having its best month since the start of 2021. you remember what happened then; right, when meme stock mania swamped wall street hedge funds but pushing heavily shorted stocks dramatically higher. the original memes, game stop and amc moving in opposite directions at the moment. amc down just a tick about half a percent. bed bath and beyond as you see up 19% and game ststop down 2.7. let's get to the man who is the founder of wall street wets reddit forum. forum jaime rogozinski. what do you make of this month? >> it's been an interesting month and the retail traders, wall street bets crowd were out for the summer. i don't know maybe there was summer boar d bo boredom and itn exciting few days. liz: what's driving them, not just the so-called ape in self-described way but i

jp morgan says september will bring the last big fed hike. kailey: china cuts, banks cut their five and one your loan primary. the country planned $29 million in special loans to developers. and energy emergency. european gas prices search again as fears return about a russian supply cut off. we will get a read on prices in the u.s. from patrick dehaan. i am kailey leinz with guy johnson. alix steel is off. welcome to "bloomberg markets." she picked a good day to be off. guy: from a u.s. perspective, i would agree with you. from a european perspective, this will be quite a busy week. it seems as though things are stepping up in ukraine. you have the energy crisis which you referenced in the headlines. tomorrow, we get pmi data. 47.9 comes from morgan stanley. i wonder if the narrative with the market numbers will be fairly bad. that would certainly fit the bill in terms of the data we are getting elsewhere. our question of the day is a fairly straightforward one. should we be working this week? should we be taking our notes from alix steel? s

the chief commodity strategist joining us from jp morgan.r here in europe, looking at the ftse at session highs, these are the final numbers. the settlement is done. the dax outperforming today, up by just over 1%. technology leading us. we will have more analysis into what is happening and dig into the details out of the fed. mary daly talking about the fact that it is completely worth it to see a slight job slowdown. try saying that quickly. we will talk about that on the cable a little bit later. kailey: of course, it is not just the fed trying to tame prices, the bank of england is, as well. they have a decision tomorrow, set for their biggest interest-rate increase in 27 years, but can they move 50 basis points? some are skeptical. we will talk to the former boe monetary voting member, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: this is bloomberg markets: european close. coming up, the airbnb ceo joins bloomberg television. this is bloomberg. guy: the bank of england is expected to push through its biggest rate hike in 27 years tomorrow and expe