k. k, which it considers a terrorist organization. turkey is one of the oldest members of nato and has the 2nd largest army in the alliance. both sweden and nato say that all parties have had their say, and it's time to close the deal. to key it more to be careful to kia confirmed that we've done what we said we would do, man. but it also says at once things that we cannot or do not want to give them. now the decision is with ted kids to thin them and sweden, a have delivered to own that agreement. and also committed, created to have a long term corporation with turkey on this issues. so therefore, the time has come to, to finalize the accession process on to rectify the accession buildable. if sweden joins nato, it would in the long established military non alignment policy. the north atlantic treaty organization is the world's biggest military alliance. it was founded in 1949 to counter the soviet union during the cold war. over the years, it has expanded growing from 17 member countries in 1990 to the current 30. nato pulls resources from its members, including battleships, war plains, a range of heavy weapons, and more than $3000000.00 personnel. the alliance aims to guarantee the freedom and security of member countries through political and military means. ah, all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests from stumble tarik, obviously a professor of international relations at is stumble either university in brussels . theresa fallon is the founder and director of the center for russia, europe, asia studies. and in moscow we have public halligan, how're a defense and military analyst, a warm welcome to you all. and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story, teresa, let me start with you today. so sweet and the saying that tortilla is asking too much and that it can't fulfill all of their demands. where does that leave things and how ultimately does this gets solved? hello, thank you for having me. i just want to clarify that anything i say is my personal opinion and doesn't reflect any of the organizations i've been affiliated with. i think that it's very key. we've seen even preparing for today's meeting 6 months ago and was thinking that things had been settled. and as the plane landed in sweden and finland, they received messages that turkey, the turkish government had changed their mind and that they weren't after the nato summit. they weren't happy with the agreement. so i think we've seen a new swedish government. they followed up with the same views as the previous government. the swedes of actually changed their laws in order to help facilitate some of the request that turkey has made. but it seems that turkey is never going to be quite happy unless they are about 35 people. and some of these are actually now swedish citizens because about 110th of the population, sweden took in a lot of kurdish refugees. so some of these people have worked their way up in swedish society. one is now a member of parliament, and they will not expedite these people to turkey. so this is a really strong sticking point. and a lot of these issues really aren't really just about sweden and finland. it's also giving everyone more leverage over nato. and it also plays well to his domestic audience. he seems very powerful and it seemed most countries and they were willing to kind of let this play out. but we saw yesterday with gens dalton bergs, comments that, you know, people are starting to lose patients with how long this is running. so there are 3 possible scenarios, one that it will happen quickly after hungary, perhaps. the 2nd one is kind of a more moderate. maybe i can get, you know what, he can this tough transaction. this tough negotiation isn't positions he, when he can get, he wants to get f teams from the united state, i'm sorry, f sixteens from the united states. and that might be difficult in this current congress. so, and the 3rd thing is in nato, they're there, they don't feel that they're getting enough support for their own security interest in regard to syria. so the u. s. and turkey on different sides on those issues. so i think that or no one has a lot of demands and he is not just unhappy. now he's been unhappy for quite some time. we've seen this happen with the previous sex, general secretary general of nato. he kind of block that back in 2009. he wanted to buy a chinese or defense system. nato didn't want that to happen. so instead he bought this as 400 from russia. and that's kind of where the u. s. turkey situation kind of erupt in regard to the f. $35.00 turkey was a longer loan into that buying on that $35.00. so they're asking for the 16th. so there are a lot of multiple strands in this relationship. and sweden is almost one of the symptoms of it, but i think turkey showing that they really hold all the cards right now, tara, from your vantage point, will turkey ultimately ratify sweden's nato membership. and what's it going to take to get to that point? actually it has expanded, difficult to say that turkey holds for sure, and it's called nice dad, me can look in the system to nato because we all know that looking put them in historical perspective. natal members have brought the national issues to the platform of the alliance whenever any particular property came to the agent that because she didn't pass many examples showing that number state site, the score leverages write a score points with other countries through the ration position within their life, for example, if we know that the united states wanted to make sure that georgia and ukraine become members of nato in 2008, france and germany. b, choice is process in the past, we had seen that greece, for example, where there might be 2 or the membership or republic or whatever. yeah. we also know that greece, antiques repeat that dissertations have been using be membership inside the european union to score some joe political goals of the turkey. so these kind of things are quite more bold with the market a through multi nation platforms. we have to on the line to be to clearly secondly, coming to your question. not turkeys in the middle of the political election season and turkish nation. that is and has been on the rise for some time and our dog and his partner nation. and it's the action part they have me to be quite cleave that on this is to we didn't appeal to comply with the term. so turkish governments took you will never rectify the term of the a petition agreement before before the elections take place, most likely in late actual or early may. i don't expect that turkish parliament to be that apply the membership claims of these 2 companies within a talk. but it is also another reason that seems to have quite facilitate that such kind of federal on the part of to keep because the international system has now been shifted to where multiple the white i'm so, so long as we are leaving multiple, the day might a month number one, number 2, so long as we want you paid kind of at, in russia and ukraine and tow keys leverages within nato care with his many, wouldn't it projections within they thought, seem to have been quite tolerated by their life. so i think this situation will continue for some path. pavel, russia has said that it's going to beef up its military presence in the northwestern parts of the country and response to sweden and finland bids to join nato. clearly, that is not a surprise to hear that rhetoric. we've heard a lot of rhetoric from russia when it comes to the attempt by sweden and finland to join nato. but how concerned is russia at this point that this membership bid would be successful? how worried are they about the prospect of sweden and finland joining nato? a world war start seen as a serious problem on sweden and especially when we were seen for a long time there, nato membership was basically almost impossible. and of course, during the cold war, fin one, the was basically a russian wo, protectorate, there was this term of fin dies, asian brand, if a capitalist country, but politically, it was associated with the soviet union was buying. so yeah, weaponry and was kind of putting it for foreign policy was in kind of well coordinated from mosque and so for them to become an enemy nation. that's a very serious of course for the russian military. maybe it's not that bad. there will be new divisions formed in the baltic region. new army divisions means more positions for tank generals to occupy more money to go into the defense budget. any kind of military likes anatomy, especially then it's not a, it's not really boys to attack russia, but you can figure that this is a threat then that means you can use that to get more money in your budget. but russia right now might be, is this, but i would say, please, that turkey and hungary are holding out then not allowing the for mo accession, a friend and sweden to into the alliance. though, of course, for all practical reasons they are already in a united states, made clear that they will treat any kind of a threat to when than sweden as, as if they are already nato members. so the leverage 30 has, is important, but it's not absolutely. let's understood moscow that eventually turkey and hungary are going to cave in to reset. what is all this mean for nato's future? especially as the war and ukraine continues. that could be a wild card. i just want to pick up on one of points there. we should recall that prior to making this public, both sweden and finland canvass to all nato members, whether they would support them to become members of nato. so they wouldn't just kind of put themselves out to dry like that. so they canvas, everybody, and for, from what i've been told, turkey did support their bid. and so they, it came as a bit of a shock once they made the announcement public that turkey had other requirements for them in order to become a member. so that really is put sweden and finland in a very difficult situation. there's a war going on in europe, sweden and finland are traditionally neutral countries. and they really kind of suck their neck out by saying they want to become a member of nato. when it was unclear that they might be blocked by turkey. so i think that there is some kind of resentment about that as well. because saying that you support them and not supporting them all the way through using leverage to get what you want out of them is, is kind of being seen in a negative light by some people. so the important thing was at the nato summit, back in spain, we, everyone was saying, you know, we have a rejuvenated nato with possible to member states. instead of being brain dead, as my car had announced a few years ago, nato was, you know, got its mojo back. had a reason, you know, kind of, they all pulled together. and there was a very, you know, positive narrative, but in the background, as these planes were leaving turkey was already kind of formulating their position on how to maximize their leverage, to get what they want out of other nato member states. and in addition, we even increased tension. so in the, in between turkey and greece. so there's a lot of, you know, that's nice on the side, but underneath is a lot of bubbling problems. and turkey actually plays quite an interesting role. we see them export drones to ukraine, and they're also getting financial support from russia. it's. it's a very complex relationship that they have is. so theresa, if i could just pick up on one of the points you were making, you said that in the run up to the announcement that there was canvassing internally that was going on within nato member states. as far as of how all this would play out, ah, then you have this, this 3 way agreement that sweden and finland signed with turkey in 2022 aimed at overcoming anchor as objections to their membership of nato. would nato members have anticipated that this would not have been resolved yet and, and just how frustrated are they getting with all of this? that's really good question. and it seems that the parameters are constantly changing this week. some people have complained that a lot of the disagreements are bit ambiguous. so it seems like the goal posts are constantly being changed. and, you know, in sweden is a democracy. they have certain protections for their citizens. they can't just send people off to turkey. even though they're sweetie, citizen, so there's, there's kind of a, a class here in regard to some values. and i understand, you know, for, to why it's good to have a maximum list position asked for as much as you can get and see what you, you can, you can find. and i mean, even at the same time we're seeing turkey refusing to extradite weaker citizens to china. so, you know, there's, there are various feelings and implications of this. and because sweden is a democracy, the problem really isn't so much with finland. the tensions are between turkey and sweden because of the large kurdish population there. so there's a lot more to this than just sweden. and we see, you know, the, the fact that sweden has removed their arms embargo that was put in place after turkey went into syria. the sweden was, i don't know, they put in arms embargo and them. and they have lifted that note and they have said that they will cooperate in defense cooperation. so i think that that would be a positive. so there, there has to be some negotiation here. there have to, there has to be some give and take. as we all know, you know, everything is a negotiation and i think holding on to this next was position. i think there was a clear message yesterday sent by and still timbered, that patients is beginning to wear thin by turkey. this is also playing very well to the domestic audience, and he, they have 80 percent in place in turkey. he has to kind of show that i'm a big power on the world stage and it remains to be seen if something also to pick up on your earlier question. you know, if something happens in ukraine or if this war expands, god forbid, but i mean, there are a lot of black ones out there and you know, by letting this go on for so long, it's kind of like a waiting for. and then i think people are concerned about that part of the optics of this whole situation because it looks like nato is not to get there. and that it's kind of a long horse trading situation and, and that's never good. so i think that everyone, we originally thought, let's just play out. it's between turkey and sweden and finland. and now there might be some calls for other countries to get more involved. but i think 1st they're sending signals, and we'll see if that will have any effect. i don't think it will, but it remains to be seen, tara, this stance that turkey is taking. how big a risk is this for president or to one when it comes to turkey? it's relationship with other nato member states. and is there any concern in turkey that, that president or the one is perhaps at risk of overplaying his hand? actually let me approve this question. the former hypothetical perspective. if we had another government here in turkey, i expect the turkish government will have reacted the same manner in the same way a because this is an issue that's been much concerns to national security interest is quite upset with the position of its partner with the rest and international community concerning the developments in the agency concerning developing, cynthia, concerning her case transitional, secular disability. if we had another government, i expect more stock turkish reaction will be the same circuit before. there are strong sake labels within nato, concerning the right approach to be booked up against russia as friends. so the should not assume that all natal member settled the same page concerning each and every action. russian government has been taken concerning each and every action there today to watch the nato security, paris, for example, there is a strong disagreement between the countries in central europe on the white house and german and financial due at the time. some people are quite eager to see that that is so that kind of piece agreement, it's going to show, but some others think that the bushel continue to the end because that i shall be punished to most exceed. so if you approach this particular problem from this particular perspective, we could easily understand why talkie has been so keen on nation with secret at the concentrations. and i think that the cost the turkish problem of not the sole high turkish politics because turkish people play significant extent seem to be quite happy with the position adopted by the cold turkish government. so they see this particular development as a coordination learn to this because magical turkish people out of the view that the people who took refuge and she read them back in the past. busy and voting close cooperation with the p k. k into the key and ignore the cd. and many people who had taken their part in this 2 attempts in july 2006, steve had it took refuge, had taken refuge in sir rhythm. so looking to the sea issue from the security considerations of the turkish government and the people they're like, use of understand why kush government has been so keen on this issue. and we should all show on the money and not the point. if one country is very keen on the national security, as well as the other members are simply ignoring those demands. so we can jump to the conclusion that there is a strong degree of disagreement that it has to be your lack of trust and will be a life. and the not forget the fact that he has not been on good terms with the leading member of theater tonight to the states for some time. these 2 countries are at all with each other concerning each and every issue. in particular, the eastern mediterranean agent, the great and the listing agent. so this is a kind of continuation of this t