i'm kailey leinz. chairman jerome powell opening of a review of investment rules for fed policymakers as accountability comes under fire in the week of trading activity revelations for eric rosengren and robert kaplan. with us is international economics and policy correspondent michael mckee. both have taken what you may have called corrective action, pledging to sell everything by september 30, but are you surprised by this move? mike: not at all. the ethics rules that they had allowed these loopholes. presidents and vice presidents are in theory subject to the same rules as the board. they allow to something that was not illegal but didn't look very good. one would expect them to tighten that up. kailey: technically, they follow the rules, but they -- we are in an unprecedented time of monetary policy, so should the rules change to go along with that? mike: they will change the rules and make it tighter, maybe ban trading, and i suppose could go as far as blind trusts. they will take this out of the

kailey: nope.wouldn't it be nice to sit down with brazilian leader here in new york city and have a slice of pizza? we could do a program or picture this, a table for two on the side of the harbor in greenwich, connecticut with the moon shining brightly and an empty seat waiting for the man you love and adore, jonathan ferro, on the others of you taking in the surroundings of a beautiful morning in greenwich. it looks so romantic. tom: it's a full moon and chinese moon festival today. we are celebrating it here. we have had shots of vodka starting at midnight but we are having moon cakes here brought by dunkin' donuts and we have a beautiful full moon. jon: i miss you. i'm pleased you not cheating on me and keeping that seat open. thank you. that looks real lonely, that picture. i can't wait to see what people do with that on twitter. can we take the picture again just given the -- give them the opportunity? tom: that's true. jon: look at that. that is special. that is special. [laughter] tom keene

we should say or what kailey said -- we should share what kailey said. i have no idea what you're talking about. jonathan: a different kind of fit. lisa: you're trying to throw us under the bus. jonathan: crew down to $68. moving on. i'm not getting you in trouble. megan greene joins us. it is been a while but the story has not changed. the only thing i can think of that has changed is we are all waiting for september and that seems to be we are waiting for 2020 to. what is your take? megan: the big question remains whether there is going to be inflation. that question has not been remotely answered. there are data points on both sides of the story. we were hoping a couple of months ago that in september kids would go back to school, we would be traveling again, that is clearly not happening. unfortunately we will have to wait longer and ride out this delta variant wave to see what the fundamentals look like. jonathan: we spent the last couple of weeks having this discussion with economist who've all said perhaps the consensus is this is a to cover a del

kailey: there is a potential task -- tax hike. my question is, how much of the positive growth in the positive growth impotence from that infrastructure spending could be offset by higher taxes? tom: do you see a partition of this, as a full yank? jonathan: is that what we are calling me for the rest of the morning? don't ask me. i have no idea. for most people, when it comes to the debt ceiling, it will get dealt with, the same way that china will deal with ever grand. these things will get addressed. tom: i am dealing with one data point, the vix is what i'm following, the litmus paper of this correlated system, 22.81 on the vix. it's elevated, but nothing like where we have been. jonathan: it is a bounce, we are up 24 on the s&p. how many bounces have we seen and then they go as the session grows older? let me quickly get this up on the bloomberg terminal so you know where the treasury has been, or where it has not been. we are at 173 point 62 now. if i throw this down to friday the 27th, when we heard from chairman powell, we

kailey: absolutely.loomberg. ♪ >> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power" with david westin. ♪ annmarie: from downtown washington two are tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power>" i am annmarie hordern alongside joe mathieu in for david westin. what a friday it was. the analyst expectations were all over the place, but the jobs report even missed the lowest. joe: kind of the opposite of last month. the window was so wide it was hard to tell where the number was going to fall. everyone was talking about it a little bit. i was just talking with labor secretary marty walsh. this is a covid story. my worry is ida. the hurricane just blew through and cost anymore miss -- and caused an enormous amount of damage.

kailey: buy the dip as always.of pullback in the equity market, it seems the next day they take advantage of the cheaper equity prices. my question is with the fed tomorrow coming up, which we all seem to have forgotten because of this evergrande conversation, but that be another downside catalyst the market has to consider? tom: it has been an extraordinary day. thanks to steve and all of our team. they brought perfect weather to greenwich. orlando bravo will join us as well. we look forward to the discussion on what he sees, particularly in private equity. looking forward to that conversation. we thank the greenwich economic forum. i am to be here tomorrow, next week come into the autumn, perfect. this is bloomberg on radio and on television. ♪ and there you have it— -woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow! -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just $30 bucks. sweet, but mine has 5g included. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet.

we had kailey leinz. lisa, let's start with the price action, a new cap is set up for -- north of 140. the market is breaking down a little bit this friday morning. lisa: this is taking hold with the idea of higher stocks, we do see the territories and this is notable after so many boring sessions. . jonathan: a sign of resiliency or complacency? lisa: that the key question. it's not been disruptive to the idea of a stronger equity lift. but it's coming from all parts of the global bond market. there is a shift to a more hawkish tone, globally. this will have ramifications, and that's when i'm watching. jonathan: we have a ton to get through. kailey leinz, bitcoin is down by 5%, china saying no. kailey: the pboc saying that all crypto transactions are illegal. this seems to be an extension of the pre-existing crackdown on crypto that china has been undergoing for years. the question raised is what exactly defines a transaction? depending on how you define that, that is what will tell us whether this is a

: kailey:.he longest week i have had a long time and i was off monday. i feel it was at least 13 days long. it seemed everything exploded when i was off monday. ever grand tank the market and by wednesday, things were looking fine even after a hawkish turn from the federal reserve. lisa: there is stuff that is happening that is genuinely real so why do we have to era about the debt ceiling. we got word from the bipartisan budget committee that we will potentially run up against the debt limit. ira jersey will be here to tell me why we should care. do i have to pay attention? >> we do because of the extreme tail risk that exists for me debt ceiling being breached. if the government default on our debt, we don't know the ramifications. we also don't know if that will lead to a significant risk off event. lisa: hold on a second. going forward, in the past, we have not seen any material risk off event at least not in treasuries. >> that's because the congress has always raised it in time before the

kailey: this is not a demand issue.he ceo, we would have had stronger results if we have more product available to can -- to serve the consumer demand which has never been higher. it is not a demand issue, it is getting the supplies. jonathan: what happens to margins and earnings seasons? that's the equity story. this is the bond market, 2, 5, and 10. it is fashionable to talk about 10, sometimes you might talk about two or 30. lisa: high-fashion. jonathan: your five year yield, the belly of the curve, we have added some weight to the belly. low 60's in early august, down about three basis points this morning, but we've seen a big move. i want to bring in darrell cronk. darrell, is that where this rate hike dance is playing out, in the belly of the curve? i think you nailed it. -- darrell: today, 92 basis points on the five, that's a big move. you are pricing in global central banks, not just the fed on a tighter path. the ecb is curbing their purchases. the boe wants to raise rates and we could see some el -- dm banks

kailey: for even further down the road. ceo of volkswagen said we could be looking at chip shortage's for years to come because he talked about the internet of things and these cars are becoming so high tech, they require so many chips that there is always going to be that demand for them and until supply can catch up to that, there will be shortages for a lot longer than the next couple of months. jonathan: let's bring in the doctor, dr. amesh adalja. i want to go to the basic question. how bad are things right now in this country? dr. adalja: it depends on what state you are in. we have seen a two track pandemic of the vaccinated and unvaccinated. the pandemic of the vaccinated is not a thing. what we have developed is a regional threat from covid-19 and it is not the same system threat it was. icus in the northeast are in a very different position than an icu in texas or mississippi. that has to do with how many high-risk people have been vaccinated or have immunity from infection. icus are not under stress in the northe

kailey: i think it may be down to events. we have already downgraded the importance of the september 22 meeting given that jobs report. so already, the fed this week seemed like it was going to be less of a market event the navy had been anticipated previously. then you layer all the risk on china on top of that, and it may be downgrades the importance even more. jonathan: coming up, tom sitting down with the head of roubini macro associates, then the head of bridgewater, ray dalio. i thought we were always joking. i did not know that it was spiked with your beverage of choice everson will morning. futures this morning, good morning. i will stay in control of my words for the rest of the show. the s&p inventing 0.8%. the race towards a fed decision tomorrow. full coverage on tv and radio. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. new data suggests a booster dose of johnson & johnson's vaccine increases the potency of. the one-time shot. the booster was -- potency of the one-time shot. the booste

kailey: we have made substantial progress. mentioned how persistently low the participation rate has been. i was reading your research. you make this point distinguishing hawks from dots and whether or not is just going to be structurally lower participation, because we are seeing those unemployment benefits across states. you are not seeing the corresponding returns on the job market. julia: some see this as a tight labor market. chair powell does not. there is a discussion around the baby boomers who retired early during the pandemic and whether they will ever come back. the thinking is perhaps not. but then the agreement is on prime agent workers, ages 25 to 54. the registration of those workers, there is no reason to think it cannot go back to pre-covid levels. it has not come close, but we have made up some lost ground. one of the unexpected developments this fall from the delta variant is that schools and the daycare economy is still highly disruptive. we are not out of the pandemic. we still have that inhibition, that a

kailey: that also was the call coming into 2021.changed a little bit in the middle part of the year. they are turning an eye towards the other side of the atlantic. jonathan: it is fed decision day. full coverage later. tom keene, kailey leinz and myself, lisa back with us tomorrow. she skipped the fed. what's that about? coming up later, the world bank president, from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> european central bank will discuss boosting once the pandemic era emergency stimulus ends. any increases uncertain. while the euro area covering should allow the ecb to end its pandemic bond buying program in march, they are said to discuss how to avoid -- when the support is pulled back. president xi jinping told the u.n. general assembly his country plan to stop building coal-fired power plants. the latest statement came after president biden announced a plan to double financial aid to poor nations so those countries could switch to cleaner energy. declining confidence with growing concern it is driven by politics. the marquette uni

kailey: we also have congresspeople still on their extended researchers -- recess. the tax ways and means committee will start working on that language this week and we are getting commentary out of the likes of joe manchin who is not on board and thinks the price tag is too high. there is the question of whether you can agree to the amount and how you pay for it, and what will we see in terms of tax sites that hikes -- hikes. jonathan: extended recess, i thought summer was over. lisa: all of washington, d.c. jonathan: can they wear white when they come back? can they do that? futures on the s&p 500 totally unchanged, really mutant price action as we kick things off. with the exception of the bond market, yields are higher by four basis points but the long end, tends, twos, 30's, a steeper curve. the 10 year 1.3 630. threes, tends, and 30's. lisa: you wonder how high that can climb. create more action in the s&p perhaps, more downward sentiment. what i'm looking at is what is going on in germany, in munich, not frankfurt. the chancellor is kicking off the iaa mobili

kailey: all the way down to 347, after the second ratings downgrade.y had to cut the rating even further into junk. the question is not just about evergrande. this is a story that is not going to go anywhere anytime soon. jonathan: lisa, we can talk about the debt profile. a report suggesting that evergrande plans to suspend interest payments from two loans. lisa: just to add on, $300 billion liabilities to other borrowers, including shadow banks. to give you a sense of the potential ripples. the issue is not debt maturity. it is simple interest payments. jonathan: let's talk about contagion risk. lisa: who has gone into china to buy securities? we saw how interconnected these banks were. these are the types of notes of contagions that we have to look out for. jonathan: joining us is emily wilkins. politico publishing talking about the senate bias of this administration. emily: you have to have the house pass legislation and to a certain extent, president biden is risking anchoring certain members of the house -- angering certain members of the house w

kailey: a month after world leaders set the stage for the u.n.al assembly -- >> we will do everything in our power to help people in the short term. what we will also do is make sure that we allow the market to work to allow supplies get to the places they need to. kailey: one of the hot topics of conversation, europe's energy crisis. we break down what's causing this and how bad it's likely to get. >> were going to make it

kailey:, a workplace revolution. as the world moves away from high carbon industries, what are the green jobs of the future? >> everybody in the world, all the big companies, small companies want green energy but also the sustainability space in general, they are hiring. kailey: are electric cars good for your career? we break down the numbers from factory to showroom. pres. biden: a future of the automobile industry that is electric. battery electric, plug-in, hybrid electric, it is electric and there is no turning back. kailey:

kailey: one of the hot topics of

kailey: protecting the great green wall.g back the spread of the gobi desert is in danger of being cut down and creating a schism between china's central and local governments. >> there is sort of a balance that they are trying to win. there is climate diplomacy on one side, while on the other side, they very clearly have some economic goals and needs. kailey: and the dark side of clean energy. a crucial component of solar

the fed decides with tom keene, jonathan ferro and kailey leinz.loomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today.

alongside lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. of price action creeping downward in the equity market. done more than a 10th of 1% on the s&p. the same move on euro-dollar. down a little bit more, a 10th of 1%. a weaker euro. yields come in three basis points. erasing some of the move sprayed the move higher over the last couple of days. let's talk about the china story. mr. dalio in a bloomberg radar event saying it's a part of the world will neglect not only because of the opportunity provides but you lose the excitement if you're not there. damien, there's been some excitement in china that's for sure. let's talk about with happening in credit. >> we have to focus on the largest property manager in terms of debt outstanding in china and effectively downgraded to double see which puts it into almost default. you 13 million in cash on hand, -- have 13 million in cash on hand. they will be spending interest payments on bank loans that are due on the 21st of this month. effectively the default is in the works and that's not a good

in terms of individual sectors, leonardo, that company friday, kailey leinz and i talked to the ceo andlked about the business in the state and gave more details and a positive update. markets responded quite well to the comments he made to kailey and me and as a result leonardo has gone up 2.3%. eqt is europe's largest listed private equity company. nor do you out with a note -- nordia at with a note saying the market got overexcited and it is not the stock down. eqt down 3.6%. lvmh, the biggest luxury stock in europe bouncing back, up 2.11%. that is a key driver of the french equity market. european should also be paying attention to what happens later on this week. the ecb is holding the september policy meeting. inflation, we have seen some print -- we have seen strong prints. we spoke to a number of key leaders over the weekend at the forum. policymakers out that meeting down praying -- policymakers at the meeting downplaying their view of inflation. >> i do not think it should come as any surprise there is a spike in inflation. >> we are not concerned by the current level of infla

guy: kailey lines will be here -- kailey leinz will be here. didn't you take last payrolls day off?ness, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. introducing xfinity rewards. our very own way of thanking you just for being with us. enjoy rewards like movie night specials. xfinity mobile benefits. ...and exclusive experiences, like the chance to win tickets to see watch what happens live. hey! it's me. the longer you've been with us... the more rewards you can get. like sharpening your cooking skills with a top chef. join for free on the xfinity app and watch all the rewards float in. our thanks. your rewards. >> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of po

kailey: this week, climate impacts and mitigation. ida has ravaged the eastern united states, and worse storms are likely to come. what can america do to it that? >> ida may have been a $55 billion storm, where right now is more in the $80 billion. annmarie: from rain to drought, arizona releases unprecedented water rations for next year. >> fertilizer, mechanics, a bunch of things are going to be shrinking.

fought back late on day one of the 4th tests against england. india boat out for $191.00 with captain kailey adding 50 shuttle tucker, going with $57.00 creek lakes, taking for wicket and reply in the last 3 before the claim of play, including cats in a run for the series of jo. route site, $53.00 for 3 of them. trailing 100. 38 runs to golf now at the italian open, enroll my daughter. marinara gave the home fans or something to cheer about that. the par, 3 7th is t shot from 200. 13 yards i went in for hall in one, not only 5 about the leaderboard, dual site, one in that car. you can see just behind him id celebrate there in the background. kinda sounds a 1st few, palin p and i got the chance to compete for the games and take care who to daddy is ticonda fifa. who arrived in japan several days late after fleeing cobble for paris . during this time on paper, she lost both f fights on thursday, but still made history. nevertheless, that is your sport, barbara, gemma, thank you so much for that. and that is it for this news? i will do stay with a phone. going to be back in just a few minutes w

kailey leinz said it is quadruple witching day for markets. the second-biggest ever trading day for single stock contracts. it is supposed to be a tremendous day. does it matter the direction of price? it is debatable. at 10:00 a.m., university of michigan survey comes out. this metric is the one year expectation by consumers, it has been going up dramatically. the previous reading was the highest since 2008. how much does that climb? how much does the three to five year projection and the 10 year projection increase? the sad, frankly, is having a hard time. -- the fed, frankly, is having a hard time. tom: i have not done this study. this is a serious question. the sum of the balance sheet of the fed. i have not done that work recently. jon: it will stay that way for a long time. let's get to our first guest, marvin barth. let's start right here. a headline for moments ago from the ecb, the inflation outlook is about to be higher. from where you are sitting, talk about the market for us. marvin: good morning. this is a problem that all central

kailey: -- kathleen: jay powell said the taper could end by the middle of next year. at the same time, the dot plot, the interest rate forecast showed that nine now see the first rate hike by the second half of next year. is the fed tilting more hawkish? patricia: i think they are. that seems pretty obvious. i think they were concerned at the slowdown in growth over the summer. they have been encouraged. i think they started to signal this a little earlier than what perhaps the market consensus was. there were signals at the last f1 see meeting that the taper could be moved into this year or early 2023, and it was forecast to be much later. the next meeting seems likely and in the q&a chair powell was clear that in his opinion it would take a mediocre jobs report to discourage him from that view. he described where the labor market was. which he took in his definition to be substantial progress. in getting back to full employment. the timing seems to be very steady if i had to guess, of the taper. a standard, slow timing over the course of it months. kathleen: so you

rishaad: world bank's president speaking with tom keene and and kailey leinz. more on the vaccination battle coming up with the u.s. fda approving booster shots for at risk, as many countries struggle with vaccine access. this is bloomberg. yvonne: let's bring you up to speed on some of the top vaccine stories. president biden once wealthy nations to donate more covert shots and deliver them to poorer countries faster. speaking at a white house summit, he announced the u.s. will buy 500 million vaccines to send abroad. this push is a totally u.s. pledge above 1.1 billion doses. the fda authorize the third booster dose of the pfizer biontech vaccine for asterisk -- at risk groups and those with high risk of severe illness, allowing a single dose on the six month after the original shots. clover says late stage trials prevent 79% of deltek cases. the first vaccine from china to offer clear efficacy data against the variant. it also shows it prevents 67% of cases of any severity caused by any strain. rishaad: let's go to nancy baxter. professor, thank you for join

kailey leinz reads everything and she brought me an essay and dominic wilson is dead on as the uncertainty goes up, everybody gets narrow on their calls. jonathan: the range of outcomes is wide. lisa: and the idea, is the cure for inflation more inflation and will become a self-limiting cycle and taking it away from the fed's and ecb's hands? jonathan: afford a losing streak on the s&p 400 -- a four-day losing streak on the s&p 400. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: in japan, and a party election later this month, he wants to create a country where no one is left behind. the leader in parliament is sure to become prime minister. more frustration over cabinet level talks with china. president dina asked president -- president biden asked xi jinping to cooperate. it was their first conversation since february. president biden ordering coronavirus vaccines for millions of people. the president offered millions of health care workers and federal -- ordered minds of health care workers and federal employees to get vaccinated. the u.s. justice department wants to put a stop to res

jonathan: do like this line from kailey leinz? ages 45 are more likely to freak out and up their portfolio during a downturn. lisa: is a great story. jonathan: do take that personally, tom? tom: we are freaking out. go to cash. jonathan: coming up, a lady who thinks you should not get a cash. anna han of wells fargo. catching up with anna in about 20 minutes. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. senate republicans have blocked a bill that was a spent the debt ceiling until september 2022 and would've kept the government operating past the end of the fiscal year. that increases the pressure on democrats to find a way to raise the debt ceiling and avert a crippling default. they may now have to use a budget procedure that could take two wakes. european nations dominate the covid resilience tracking. ireland is at the top of the survey. norway fell to 10th. ireland has been moving up since the start of 2021 when it had the worst outbreak in the world. the delta variant has left th

kailey: -- kathleen: this is a big meeting because we been waiting to know are you ready to taper, andary and how about the dots? are they going to hike rates? they are tapering inflation, the taper expectation survey said 67% what they are going to signal at the end of this meeting is the taper is going to start in november. and they will give us more details as well. two camps, one says transitory, the transitory team. they say we don't need to go fast, don't worry about rate hikes quickly because inflation is subsiding as the post-pandemic stresses ease. the other team, the hawks are saying how long can you call inflation that stays at 4% or higher year-over-year temporary? it looks persistent, we think it's time to announce the taper now, get it done by early next year in case we need to hike rates by the middle or second half of next year. dots. every three months the fed updates its view of rove, unemployment, inflation, and they say here is what we think the course of the rig is going to be. the numbers have gone higher the last couple of quarters. seven out of 18 are saying we'