kailey: i'm kailey leinz. we welcome our bloomberg and bnn audiences.stories we are following for you from around the world. with spending stagnant as prices continued to surge, we speak to julia coronado of macropolicy perspectives on what this means for the economic outlook. the covid surge is also impacting airlines as travelers second-guess their travel plans, bringing new uncertainty to the recovery. a santa claus rally underway. can risk appetite avoid the grinch for the rest of the year. john: we are watching some positive performance on wall street as things start to slow down at of the holidays. generally positive week for stocks and we are sitting near the all-time high for the s&p 500. industrial stocks have been driving the index higher. boeing moving higher. we were talking about that data on the consumer front. every time i go out, even if i don't go into a store, it feels like $20 is flying out of my pocket. when you adjust for inflation, the fastest price gains in nearly four decades, eroding purchasing power, as many americans start the

kailey: this is bloomberg markets. i'm kailey leinz.china, banks borrow low in cost for the first time in 20 months, providing support to an economy showing strength. the move underscores the diverging monetary policy path between china and the u.s. and also marks a new phase in the global struggle to deal with the pandemic fallout. for more insight, let's bring in jonathan ward, founder of the atlas organization. great to talk to you. what we are seeing in china, virus aside, comes amid the pursuit of common prosperity, and that has led to a crackdown on a number of industries. can we expect china to just continue to keep policy easy, do what it needs to do to shore up the markets, so they can pursue that agenda? jonathan: it is sensible to look at the two together. on the one hand you are dealing with these structural problems in the chinese economy, general economic slowdown. on the other hand, ccp wants greater political control, particularly over its industries and emerging technologies. seeing them try to control these is priority

matt: kailey told me it has to get up to $280,000. kailey: that's right. matt: it will be interesting. i personally love big, round numbers and i love the dow jones which is why i am generally not welcome on this program. i think it makes for a more interesting storyline and i am not opposed to that. jonathan: if you go deep into the archives, there will be a special with matt miller in a bowtie. [laughter] you have to go back about 10 years. don't go looking for it. [laughter] s&p 500 up 2/10 of 1%. the euro-dollar 113.30. matt: i think it is fascinating. as the equity market climbs in the face of omicron, in the face of inflation may be being helped a little bit by more stimulus out of china and the fact that the severity of the disease seems more mild. but i think it is interesting we are looking at lower pes. we talk about how difficult it would be to forecast 4800 year-end 2021 even though we had a guest to did that. most people could not have guessed it and we are at a pe of 31 and now we're looking at a pe of 26. jonathan: earnings have been better

kailey: absolutely. if you have five hours to wait in line to get three tests, be my guest, but a lot of people do not. it is no longer about just getting the tests. pcr tests are taking days to come back because laboratories are backed up here there is a serious testing issue in the united states. the biden administration says it will start mailing tests next month, but by that point, it is too little, too late. jonathan: equity market up 9 on the s&p 500. 41 -- unchanged in the fx market. euro-dollar, 1.1309. kailey: still dancing sub 1.50. we will talk more about the bond market with victoria fernandez from crossmark in just a minute. she likes bank of america and and -- she likes bank of america and j.p. morgan as well. we will talk about that translation with matt brill as well. jonathan: joining us that is victoria fernandez, chief market strategist at crossmark. is it a case of tell me why we should not hike in march? victoria: i still think it is tell me why we should. that is what the fed is bet

kailey: what about the bond market? marvin: i still think we can get a flattening of the curve -- it will be somewhat surprising. in number to be concerned with from a risk asset market, and what does it say about the future? that part of the curve remains fairly well anchored. you will see some flattening continuing. we will get 30 basis points higher. it is not a number that should scare people given the type of environment we are talking about. matt: i was talking earlier about earnings expectations for next year. that is clearly underpinned by economic growth. if the fed does tighten in order to stave off inflation, are they going to tighten financial conditions enough to impact economic growth? marvin: that is the risk. that is not in 2022. it has to be something where the market things the fed, and it goes into 2023, will get more aggressive. they have three priced in for 2022, another three or four in 2023. overall, we finish these rate expectations below the neutral rate. that continues to underpin an environmen

kailey: 60 this year, will we make it 70 today echo we are dancing around -- today echo we are dancing -- today? we are dancing around the 40 degree yard. how far we have come and how far above or rethought where we would be. jon: do know with a high estimate yesterday was going back 12 months? goldman at 4400. that was the high. you remember people said 4400 is ridiculous? what were we, 35, 3600, something like that, felt like way out there. do you think there is a similar attitude toward the forecast coming for 12 months now. -- now? kailey: there is why diversity in the area still. was interesting is i was talking to eddie vendor bell earlier, he says there is so much uncertainty going into 2021 and a lot of that has cleared up 2021 into 2022 so we have a better understanding of what happens to us although that has not formed into any consensus. jon: i think over the last 24 hours, we have taken a baby step toward normalcy. the cdc saying you don't have to isolate for 10 days, you have to

kailey: great stuff. we heard from then they told us it took double the time to get a pair of sneakers from asia to los angeles and the pork there but now it something like 80 days. talking about supply chain, they are still there. guy: meeting you have got to manage that inventory really well. e-commerce is a two-way street. yeah, you can sell people stuff but more often than not you will get a significant chunk of it back and how you manage the reverse retail story is really important and that is where the logistics story comes in. how quickly can you turn it around? how quickly can you take the working capital and resell it? companies like nike has a huge advantage and that's where the brick and mortar comes in. if i purchase something that doesn't quite fit or work, i can take it back to the store and getting it back into inventory is critical. kailey: across-the-board with logistics on your resume, you can probably get a job at any of them. gina: absolutely. what's most interesting is them being driv

kailey: good morning on tv and radio. kailey leinz, damian sassower, and guy johnson in. santa claus has already come to this market. guy: he was always going to arrive at some point. it is being delivered on big volume. i think we will probably wait until the beginning of next year for we get an accurate gauge on what is happening. but the news this morning relatively positive. certainly the news around the omicron variant looks good. we've got this new pill coming from pfizer. it is expensive, but at least can be delivered at home. i think that speaks to a better outcome may be in the new year for omicron. my question is, is delta still waiting in the wings? the doctors seem to be telling me that it will be. we are not done with delta quite yet either. kailey: we know delta is still a problem in the u.s., although omicron now makes up the vast majority of cases. we have to talk about the policy response when we talk about the virus, and the u.s. not heading towards lockdowns or really any kind of restrictions. damian: i wonder if this has anything to do with is in joe b

with kailey leinz. tom: the nasdaq down 1.2% on futures. look at the roller coaster of the vix, which really sets up the week ahead, coming from a really quiescent 26 level, we explode up to 31, i believe we saw friday, and even now elevated above 30. jonathan: you mentioned a roller coaster. 10 year yields down friday by 10 basis points, up this morning by four to 1.38. what was friday about? trying to work out what all these moves are about. tom: be careful here. fankly, kailey is probably better read in than me, but the zeitgeist right now is to push aside omicron. i do not agree with that. i really people worldwide are fixated about what to do about omicron, and that has filtered into the market. italy changing their super green pass. jonathan: it is the good news -- it is a quiet period for fed speak. no fed speak going into the decision next week. kailey: and no fed speak in reaction to the cpi data we get later on this week. the question is will the fed have to react to that first? and on

and kailey: the ability kailey: -- kailey: and the ability for companies to be able to pass on those costs. at what point would you become concerned as we see saving rates drawn down about consumption? sam: i think consumers, because they have been hearing about it, they have been seeing it on their own, they are fully aware that prices are on the rise, and frequently what happens is people end up moving forward whatever purchases they are lightly to do for the year, at least on discretionary items because they don't want to wait only to have those items cost more. when it comes to staples type items, they are just resigned to the fact that their favorite brand of cereal is going to cost more, or maybe they end up substituting for more generic brands. so consumers are not going to be zombies walking in the dark. they are going to be trying to be active about how they can make adjustments to save money. guy: bring this all together. are we late cycle? is 2022 late cycle? sam: we are beginning the third year of this bull market. it is likely to be a challenging year, the sophomore slum

kailey: how lucky he is.t: every time the fed -- every time someone says the fed needs to raise rates to increase the price of mortgages, i listen up. jonathan: it is personal, as michael jordan said. jim bianco will join us later this morning at 9:00 eastern. in lines, matt miller -- kailey leinz, matt miller, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg surveillance. ritika: i am ritika gupta. coronavirus infections jumped over the weekend. china reported the highest number of cases since january. australia reported more than 10,000 daily cases for the first time since the start of the pandemic. daily omicron infections in the u.s. have now surpassed those in the delta wave. in poland, the president has vetoed a bill that would have forced his government to sell most of the country's most popular tv network. thousands of poles protested an effort to muzzle independent broadcaster. the u.s. pressured the president to veto the measure. the japanese kicked off their effort with a sale to oman. the administration's goal i

kailey: how do you define quality? steven: this would be earnings stability, dividend growth, consistent income flows. the firm's again that are not necessarily taking moon shots, but have very steady cash flows that they pay out to investors and a higher premium return the bond market yields. matt: so not a lot of growth, or do you think you can get quality growth as well? steven: i don't really think growth and value metrics have been really good ways to drive portfolios. we really need to look at cyclicals and defensives. after many of the cyclical shares have outperformed by double digits, we think we are at peak cyclical momentum. we are actually passing it, with factory orders, for example, near the highest level we have ever seen. our largest overweights are in health care shares. we think our consumer staples which suffered a rise in commodity prices over the last year, we will start to see that negative drag ebb and they can catch up some performance while paying high dividends. if we take a look at the surfac

kailey: still looking at a $76 handle.he supply picture is looking a little better, and demand, how much is the omicron variant really a threat, or have we reevaluated that? we will also be taking a look at the path forward for volatility. the question is, does that normalization continue into the new year? amy wu silverman will be joining us, and we will continue the equity conversation with steve whiting at citi global wealth. then we will get into whether or not those prices will be enticing shale players to drill anymore, or do they keep that discipline really focused on returning money to shareholders? jeanine wai will be joining us, and then we will come back to the pandemic because it seems like we have never-ending questions. deborah fuller of the university of washington school of medicine will be joining us later on. jonathan: the confusion from the cdc, your thoughts on that. are you any clearer on what you need to do after you have tested positive for covid? kailey: absolutely not. i thing messaging has been a

kailey: absolutely. the message president biden has repeated time and again, and i do not think we will stop hearing at any time soon. coming up, we will talk about the economic impact of the omicron variant. we will speak with our guest on that. s&p 500 at the moment, no real action, 4642. the 10-year yield at 1.4771. this is bloomberg. ♪ oomberg. ♪ kailey: if you were hoping for a little peace and quiet in this holiday trading week, you are finally getting at this morning. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." after a volatile monday and tuesday to start us off this week it is pretty quiet here we go nowhere on the s&p 500 futures, sitting at 4641. nasdaq a little bit lower. you are getting more action in the small-cap space, .4% move on the russell. we see yields moving higher across the curve. if about a basis point relatively smaller news, but on the longer end of the curve, 30-year yield, a few basis points to 1.8838. broadly in the g10 space and the euro which has seen a seven spike against the dol

kailey: good morning on tv and radio. kailey leinz, damian sassower, and guy johnson in.as already come to this market. guy: he was always going to arrive at some point. it is being delivered on big volume. i think we will probably wait until the beginning of next year for we get an accurate gauge on what is happening. but the news

kailey: i think that is the question.nd how does that change the conversation and the calculation on capitol hill when it comes to fiscal stimulus? does the bottom build back better start to change if we see some kind of growth hit in the u.s.? gina: we are talking 60% of gdp in 2020, so clearly the rollback of these policies is going to have consequences for risk assets, for investments, for the financial markets at large, and we may start to see that now as we look forward into 2022. kailey: we are down about 1.2% on s&p. you aren't seeing a massive bid into the bond market. the 10-year treasury yield and the state only down by about two basis points. there remains a disconnect between the stock market and the bond market. it is also interesting, interesting behavior in the fx space. it is not the dollar really getting the haven bid. it is the euro, stronger by about 0.25%. crude getting absolutely hammered this morning. we are down 4.8% on wti. let's do more on all things markets with richard bernstein of rb advisors.

with kailey leinz.isa back tomorrow. tom: the market pricing of what is going on in china is tangible. it is off the radar this morning, but it is real. evergrande paper south. jonathan: a cpi report and america. wells fargo suggesting 6.9 pi. -- 6.9% cpi. tom: i think 9% is my monday mass. that is something we have never seen before. that is the uncertainty that we have right now. jonathan: david kostin and that he met goldman looking at 5100 on the s&p next year. if things get dicey, can the fed doing thing about it -- do anything about it? kailey: even in the face of the market clearly being upset about uncertainty around the omicron variant, the fed maybe playing catch up era's we are faced with these kind of numbers in the u.s. jonathan: throw in the things kailey is talking about, you wonder how much the fed has got ahead of it to slow this economy down with him economy with a 69 handle on the ism. tom: the partial differentials is you want to bring the inflation component over to real economic gr

kailey: so solid outlook for 2022. what do you want to buy within the equity market on a sector or effector basis? david: i think it is challenging for us to see how the evaluations expand further. we think 2022 will look very similar to 2021 in the sense equity markets will continue to grow into what our average or above average valuation is, depending on where you are looking in the world. we want to own those sectors and industries and companies that have running streams which are most leverage to the underlying pace of economic activity. in the u.s., that is things like the industrial sector and financial sector on the value side. then, the technology sector and health care sector. and we think about the global picture, we still see value in emerging markets, particularly those in southeast asia which benefit from the inventory rebuilding we see driving global growth next year. when it comes to sources of alpha, that is when we are inclined to go to markets like europe and japan. we think the beta that is available

kailey: if you are flying from the u.s. you do have the option to test on the fifth day of quarantine. if that is negative, you can exit, but it might take a couple days to get the test results back. you are realistically looking at one week of isolation. jonathan: the equity market up six or seven. the nasdaq 100 up around 46, advancing .3%. yield about one basis point. kailey: sub 150 at the end of 2021, year where we thought we would end closer to 50 basis points higher. we will talk to sarah house later this hour. what is she thinking about the economy and how does not inform what she thinks the fed is likely to do. when we are thinking about fed policy, what will the impact be on the path of the dollar. jordan rochester will talk with us. we will talk with james paulson. a 10% to 15% correction at some point. we will talk all things tesla with dan ives. he sees a strong year ahead. jonathan: elon musk close to the $10 billion tesla share target. the stock up 2% on the day. matt: what has

kailey: five-day isolation now instead of 10.hat will be welcome words to hear for corporate america dealing with labor shortages having to shut businesses and cancel flights due to lack of staffing. it is a step toward normal in treating this less like something that needs to be treated in a particular way versus any other illness. jonathan: goldman sachs on board. let's get back to the office and the banks on wall street. that one is making a big push into next year. kailey: goldman was saying people are coming back. they were one of the earliest to do so at a time when wells fargo has not brought everyone back. they pushed that back indefinitely. goldman taking stock of the moment. they are requiring employees to be boosted by the first of february and making them test twice a week. to the office with caveats. jonathan: we speculated through about this through the summer. for the likes to be fully vaccinated it does include the booster. matt: absolutely. i travel to spain and back and they were already checking to see if i hav

kailey: also making it clear that the strong dollar story is not over. that was a non-consensus view coming into 2021, but there's a lot of calls strategists got wrong. tom: let's review this quickly. what i saw were two stories out of china. one was in accommodative bank due to a real estate crisis, and the second was a reaffirmation of the real estate crisis seen in price down for evergrande paper. jonathan: they tap the brakes, and then pushed the accelerator again. when they cut rrr, the reserve requirement ratio, i see that is boosting the supply of credit, not necessarily dropping the price of credit. that seems to be what they are doing, alleviating the pain just to support the real estate market a little bit. jonathan: tom: on -- tom: on debt, the 10 year yield 1.39%. i am stunned we have moved from 1.74%. jonathan: go through the data. cpi close to 7%. a labor market report beyond the headline number that seemed to be pretty decent. a federal reserve set to respond to that. the 10 year yield at 1.39%. robert tipp is going to explain it in a mome

kailey leinz, gina martin adams and guy johnson in. he thought it was going to be a sleepy holiday week. joe manchin is now a no unbilled that better. the world economic forum now being pushed out until the summer of next year. >> i'm not overly shocked about davos. i would be surprised to see the likes of jamie dimon. it's a double whammy for the markets. joe manson -- joe manchin accelerating not only here in the u.k., across europe and now in the united states. equity markets are off their lows which i think is interesting because we are seeing a more positive response to that mentor news. we have a bit in the bond market. euro-dollar actually catching a little bit of bid as well and s&p futures really mirroring what we are seeing. >> equities are down a lot harder. in terms of what else is coming up we are going to get conference board leaving index. a lot of the data is going to come later this week when we get pcs and gdp. any economic indicator could in theory make a difference. we will be keeping an eye on the white house. what

kailey: granted, it has

kailey: a headache for president biden.s also facing a question as to the outcome of his will but better plan which is having some struggles in congress. a lot of questions for the market, need decision today seems to be let's not put any positions on while we wait for answers. session highs up a couple of points on s&p. we are sitting at 4643 at the moment. a little more movement in fx, with euro-dollar sitting at 1.13 at the moment. of course, we will continue to talk about the implications of domestic policy on the market for 2020 22, but let's talk about how it could shift the electoral landscape get emily wilkins of bloomberg government joining us from washington. as we think about the pandemic and its trajectory here in the states, about fiscal policy and the difficult he of getting that through, how is it going to shape the midterms year from now? emily: democrats are talking about provisions in this spending bill they are delivering for their constituents. the checks that millions of americans have been getting in t

kailey: thank you so much. will be here tomorrow and guide will be coming up on bloomberg markets. futures negative about point -- about negative point when he 5% on the s&p 500 -- -.25% on the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪ mom, hurry! our show's gonna start soon! i promised i wouldn't miss the show and mommy always keeps her promises. oh, no! seriously? hmm! it's not the same if she's not here. oh. -what the. oh my goodness! i don't suppose you can sing, can you? ♪ the snow's comin' down ♪ -mommy? ♪ i'm watching it fall ♪ watch the full story at www.xfinity.com/sing2 alix: from new york city, i am alix steel in for jonathan ferro. futures trading heavy. volume disappears. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ alix: we begin with the big issue. a new test for markets. >> year end liquidity is pretty terrible. >> the s&p has more volatility. >> virus fears and short-term economic concerns

kailey: always it seems there are unanswered questions. we should get answers to some questions on the economic data front later this morning. at 8:30 a.m. eastern time, we will get the current data for here in the u.s.. we are expecting the deficit to expand. 205 billion dollars in the third quarter. later, we will get some bond options. it will be a $20 billion, 20 year bond reopening option. we will look to see how that takedown shakes out. finally, all eyes will be on washington, where president biden will deliver remarks on the status of the country's fight against covid-19. it will raise the question of policy. he will not put the u.s. back into any restrictive measures or lockdown, very focused on hospital support. omicron now represents 73% of cases in the u.s.. it was only 3% last week. the situation is escalating quickly, so how is the president going to respond? >> i spoke to one of our colleagues, who gave me the breakdown of the timing here, saying south africa is two weeks ahead of the u.k.. the u.k. is one week ahead of the

lisa: let's talk about the ash kailey: -- kailey: let's talk about the efficacy of fed action. lot of people say it is going to ease up early in 2022. you think that is wrong, yet the fed is not in a position to do anything about supply-side driven inflation, so where does that leave us? jim: i think in second place of the bad calls for this year is the call that the supply chain will fix itself magically. if you look at what is been happening with the supply chain, they are just playing games with the numbers, moving ships 150 miles offshore to say that the backlog is coming down, but it is not. it is the worst it has ever been. the fed can't print ships. what we also have his tremendous demand. we have record demand for durable goods and retail sales right now. if the fed wants to raise rates, they could help ring the inflation picture back into line by helping to cool off the demand side of the equation. it is not just supply causing this inflation problem. it is supply and record demand at the same time. the fed can do some thing about demand if they wanted to. jonathan: th

kailey: what will for next time? jonathan: well, what will for next time in the case of covid is broader sensitivity. it really goes back to 2001, for the first experience with sars. it's a matter of recognizing outbreaks very early, cooperating on building that team very early, and not saying oh well, it does not seem to be coming here, so we don't have to be afraid. in fact, we have to be very afraid. a lot of the vigilance tools that we started assembling back in the early 2000's weren't really in place when this pandemic hit us. and we have realized that we need laboratories around the world that are staffed from year-to-year, not from crisis to crisis. and we need to be ready to respond to a crisis. long before it is a crisis. when it is first recognized. romaine: well said. really appreciate you taking time to give us your insights. dr. jonathan javitt, ceo of nrx pharmaceuticals, trying to find better ways to treat covid patients, particularly those severely ill. coming up, we're going to talk about omicron an

kailey: you brought up iran, so let's get back to it. parties at play are going to reconvene today on that 2015 your deal. do you see any real likelihood they will be sanctions released, that there will be a return to that accord? daniel: it seems highly unlikely that there's going to be sanctions relief. the u.s. has made it clear that is the redline to fall back in compliance of the deal. i don't think there is a lot of hope that iran suddenly backs down from its demands, especially with the government in place now versus when the jcpoa was an act that, but i think the u.s. has been pretty tear there won't be sanctions relief bmw at this point. if there is some caret they can dangle -- some carrot they can dangle, perhaps, but i do think a move is unlikely. kailey: do you see a likelihood that they will actually be more sanctions put into place? the dow jones reporting that the u.s. is moving to tighten enforcement on those sanctions. daniel: there's not a lot of elements of the iranian economy that are left to sanction. it has long be

kailey: the unreliable boyfriend.think it is interesting, the difference between the boe and the fed. jordan basically saying the boe moves are priced in, whether or not their communication has been effective. the market and the fed seem misaligned between what the fed has indicated. we can tell about how much you actually need to rely on the indications from the dot plot, but the market not where the fed says it will be going into the future. jonathan: it is clear there has been an emphasis shift with a couple of key central banks trying to restate some inflation credibility. we keep going back to that question in the last hour. can you do anything on the inflation front without tightening financial conditions, and do you need to tighten financial conditions to do anything on the inflation front? isn't that some thing that needs to happen in the next 12? what does that mean for market calls going into 2022? matt: historically, it looks like that is the way you had to deal with the problem of inflation. you had to thr

kailey: let's talk more about inflation.e seen the president at least try to be seen attempting to do something about it, tapping the strategic petroleum reserve, trying to do something about supply chains and fixing chip shortage issues. none of that has up to this point -- at least the american populace does not feel that yet. is biden's approval rating going to continue to be tied to price pressures? andy: i think you are onto something really important here. when we look at inflation, we look at it from a political standpoint and a market standpoint. from the market standpoint, we are looking at fundamentals, those things sticky going long-term, but politically, and you have talked about this already, it is gas and groceries, what people feel in their pocketbooks. the good thing for biden's recently some of the gas prices will start to dip down. he will try to take credit for it with the strategic petroleum reserve. but it is really about omicron and fears about that as well as some of the production. a lot of these thin

kailey: was it?] jonathan: it will take place in davos, switzerland, the world are coming forum. at least, they plan for it to ice. we are -0.3% on the s&p. let's get to kriti gupta on this commodity market for a whole lot more. kriti: we are starting to see this idea of persistent inflation ever since chairman powell dropped the word transitory from his vocabulary. the question is, does that mean commodity inflation is here to stay? my chart of the day looks at commodities going all the way back to 2000 because this rally we have seen in the oil market in particular is pretty typical of post-recessionary periods. if you look at regression lines in the periods following 2001, 2008, and 2020, it has never been steeper than right now. you start to see some of it be because of dr. demand rebounds. you have some of it because of the fed's response not only for growth, but for markets as well. commodities also trade with those risk assets. lastly, and arguably the most important one, the rapidly expanding

kailey: so many potential downside risks remain. the question is if the market will look through it. we have been asking our guests about the big risks to the market over the next year. take a listen. >> omicron, inflation, and overextended markets. >> the pandemic. >> covid. >> covid and covid policies. >> the pandemic and geopolitical risks. >> there are warning signs, inflation, other political risks around the world. >> geopolitics of china, russia, and iran. >> we are in a much more volatile time. >> 2020 two is another year of rebuilding, and it is going to be choppy. you have supply chain issues. >> what is valued at such a level that will come down. i'm not sure the market is ready for three interest rate increases next year. >> if fed efforts to slow inflation lead to recession, all of those things are sources of risk for the market. kailey: let's bring in our chief economist, tom, to walk us through some major risks he sees on the horizon. you heard a lot, ranges from the buy risk to a variant to inflation to a federal res

kailey: it's not going to be pretty.re speaking earlier in the week with wells fargo who said the cow for a seven handle in about a month. does that move the dial in a market that largely is already priced in? is that accelerating its taper next week anymore quickly happening tightening cycle? we were expecting a hot inflation print. does it change anything or is the market add of that? lisa: as the fed -- jon: as the fed still on that inflation fades the middle of next year? that is still the baseline for chairman powell. he still believes that from what he told congress last week. that seems to be the case. lisa: the issue is it is affecting confidence. the issue is people are already restricting purchases on the margins as a result. so they have to make at least a signal. this is going beyond just whether it will face. jon: for the 200,000th time, coming up on the program, we talk about the pandemic with johns hopkins. [laughter] it's getting depressing, isn't it? lisa: you are still trying? jon: still trying. [laught

kailey: it is going to come in hot. think it is interesting to contrast what we are seeing with inflation in the u.s., what it means for federal reserve policy, a fed that is still easy. in emerging markets, you are already getting the tightening. you were talking about brazil yesterday, how we were getting massive rate hikes delivered. we just got brazil's inflation rate for november, 10.74%, the fastest pace in 18 years. jonathan: they are set to go again in february, perhaps by another 150 basis points. lisa: when will it bring enough -- when will it be enough to bring people back into the country? you're getting yield at a time when the country has gone back into recession, and that has been one of the big questions for investors. one to earn that money, and yet they can't quite get it there. jonathan: the big moves this year have been in e.m.. is it dm's turn next year? increasingly that is the conversation we are having. lisa: the more interesting call recently has been that the fed will go ahead, and that the fed

kailey: relative to me.: that is the difference between absolute performance and relative performance. the interesting thing about the pandemic, there is been a terrible human cost and i do not want to make light of the fact that nearly a million americans have died, but necessity becomes the mother of invention. what we have seen is the pandemic accelerating a lot of trends that had existed in a small fashion, and essentially bringing the future forward 10 years, whether it is how we purchase automobiles, the hybrid nature of work from home and office, retail sales. go down the list. telemedicine. the 2021 year looks more like 2031 would have looked without a pandemic accelerating all of these prior trends. matt: the acceleration is one of the more exciting things we have gotten from the pandemic. in terms of the supply chain, that is one of the worst things, aside from the human tragedy you brought up, that is one of the worst things for the economy. that is what caused the inflation. the fed did not think

kailey: guy johnson says hopefully in the background. [laughter] in germany, we are expected to hear from olaf scholz about his response to regional leaders there and in the u.s., president biden speaking this afternoon will not be talking about restrictions or lockdowns. he will just be talking about vaccinations, more testing with help for hospitals. gina: and the important takeaways that that is what's embedded in asset prices as we generally consider strategies based on whether or not there will be locked down for the united states. certainly the prevailing view is that there will not be, therefore the u.s. row 38 can sustain and you can count on u.s. revenue growth being embedded in valuations in u.s. stocks, inordinately large. kailey: let's bring in the senior strategist for ema markets at nyu melon. thinking about the potential impacts of the omicron variant coupled with the runoff of the supports on the fiscal and monetary sides, how worried are you? do you think the market is worried enough? >> the market needs to revisit polic

sonali: is it also a matter -- kailey: is it also a matter of re-shortening supply chains? >> the thing that is consistent across supply chains and the comments coming out of the fedex report, the workforce shortages are really dramatic. whether we talk about final delivery or warehouse staff, or the staff to unload tankers, working through the ports, the key issue will be the workforce. what we see in some of those nodes of the supply chain is automation. in warehouses, for example, autonomous trucks, things like that will be emerging in the next three to five years. the common theme across the inefficiencies and the challenges in the supply chain is the workforce. the increased wages will be attracting to some of these jobs but i think we've also heard some of these jobs are really challenging. amazon has certainly had their challenges with quality-of-life. there's no work from home in supply chain. we are working from home, driving vehicles. so to look through how we are optimizing those assets including the workforce is a very important part of the conversation. romaine

kailey: i don't think any of us counted that.omaine: don't worry, there is no risk of any of us getting picked for that role. our next guest has written a lot about the complexities of financial markets and regulation. she has some great insights so let's bring her into the conversation, the professor of law at the columbia law school specializing in financial regulation. let's talk about the idea of diversity of ideas. when you look at the fed, the structure that it has been, hasn't really been homogenous in thought? kathryn: yes and no. there is a degree of homogeneity across central banks. for a long time, it has been a technocratic institution and that means there is a narrowness of thinking. the fed has a unique structure with the federal reserve board goes through president trump ointment, senate confirmation, but you also have the regional blanks -- regional banks. the structure is to consistently bring in different perspectives to the conversation. >> talk to us about those different perspectives. we have their names out

kailey: decision that was taken well by risk assets. tapering, looking at $30 billion coming off a month, and saying that they are looking at three hikes of rates in 2022 and 2023. howell said he is not that worried about the omicron variant and that he thought inflation would come down in 2022. listen to more of what the chairman had to say. >> supply and demand imbalances have continued to contribute to elevated inflation. these problems have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated. we are phasing out purchases more rapidly because with elevated inflation pressures, the economy no longer needs increasing policy support. the economy is much stronger. i was here with the fed when we lifted off last time and the economy is stronger, closer to full employment. there's a provision in what used to be called -- provision, what used to be called a balanced approach provision, that will enable us to, in this case because of high inflation, move before achieving maximum employment. >> let's break that down with the chief investment offi

kailey: this week, dreaming of a green christmas.ok into how 3d printing could be the future of christmas presents. >> we have advanced machine technology along with ai and robotics to essentially allow us to work with fabric and a flexible and stretchy and all kinds of good stuff. and create from a roll of fabric to a finished garment. kailey: how can we lower the carbon cost of food? >> think about the quantities and sharing. reduce the quantity of some of the more impactf

let's get you some movers this morning and say good morning to kailey leinz.entioned that nasdaq futures are lower. one big heavy weight is apple. bloomberg reporting overnight that apple told its suppliers man for the item -- the iphone 13 is waning. apple cut production targets for its new iphone because of supply-side challenges for this year. people may be waiting for the model after that. some suppliers all down in the range of 2% to 3% as well. corbo, skyworks, qualcomm all under pressure. snowflake is a big mover to the upside. the cloud software company actually reported after the bell yesterday and gave a really bullish forecast. that stock is up about 13%. boeing is higher. this is a 737 max story. china is poison it for return to the skies. a codeveloper of black to smithkline -- of glaxosmithkline's antibody treatment looks like it will be effective against omicron. the vaccine makers not so lucky. moderna looks like it will be down for a third day. it is already down 16% in the last three days, lower again this morning. tom: thank you so much. if

reporter kailey be sun has details. >> we the jury on the charge of manslaughter in the first degree.> former minnesota police officer kim potter with no visible reaction when the verdict was read. it's the judge thanking the jury as potter made the sign of the cross. >> on april 11 potter pulled over 20 year old dante wright attempted to place him under arrest for an outstanding warrant when he resisted. she fatally shot him saying she meant to use her taser but accidentally grabbed gun instead. >> for the charges prosecutors had to prove that potter acted recklessly cause an unreasonable risk and consciously took a chance of causing death or great bodily harm. >> neither charge required proving potter intended to kill right under minnesota law defendants are sentenced only on the most serious conviction. if multiple counts involve the same act and victim the maximum for first-degree manslaughter is 15 years behind bars shortly after the verdict was read. wright's mother addressed the media. the moment that we heard guilty. >> i'm manslaughter one. emotions. every single motion that

kailey leinz, gina martin adams and guy johnson in.ought it was going to be a sleepy holiday week. joe manchin is now a no unbilled that better. the

kailey: -- caroline: i'm interested in how real-time the data is you are looking at and whether you areg omicron filter into any of it. you talk about services, you talk about getting on airlines. we just had helane becker talking about airlines. you see any nervousness? bricklin: we are seeing both sides. we see the real-time impact when we look at things like the biden administration announcement to simplify travel rules. we see a big pickup in travel. the micron effect has affected -- the omicron effect has affected economies. most economies have taken more precautionary measures. less of an impact on consumer spending thus far. tom: thank you so much. bricklin dwyer with mastercard. it is always good news to have damian sassower join us on em. i want to focus on the unraveling of mr. erdogan. it becomes about the people of turkey and we are seeing that on this friday morning. with turkish lira depreciation through 17, i have the turkish stock market up 43% and down 37% year to date in u.s. dollar. it is beginning to unravel. what does that signal for mr. erdogan? damian: not much go

reporter kailey the sun has the story. >> well, it was somber inside of the courtroom today after thect was read jussie smollett sat quietly with his hands folded, jussie smollett charged with 6 counts of disorderly conduct found guilty on 5 of those counts tonight. >> 12 jurors reached a verdict after more than 9 hours of deliberation. mister smollett would not have lost this case as he did today. >> and that's the jury found that he lied to them during the trial. the empire actor taking the stand in his own defense maintaining that he was the victim of a racist and homophobic attack in chicago nearly 3 years ago, smollett told police he was targeted by men who yelled slurs at him, punched him and put a rope around his neck. police say they reviewed hundreds of hours of video surveillance but no camera captured the incident. this jury work so hard. >> and for mister smollett to get up and running them and life for hours and hours and hours. really compound it. his misconduct as a counter to smollett's claims. 2 brothers also taking the stand. >> testifying that smollett orchestrated