katie stockton is back with you. to look like with the chart in the coming weeks? >> i think we have come into the season overbought. if you look at the weekly charts, we have widespread, overbought readings. that makes it difficult to respond to reports unless they are positive. it is a charllenging environmen with the extreme greed reading recently and that is another challenge for the market. the market does seem to be anticipating more volatility as we come through the earnings season and right into the election. that's evidence in both of the vix which has seen long-term momentum shift to the upside and the price of gold which has out performed the s&p 500 by about 10% this quarter. very evident rotation there. sector relative performance with the defensives. all of that taken together suggests we have a challenging environment going forward. >> katie, i wonder if you can take us through your word of the day. there's a ton to choose from with the catalyst. >> i'm going with the risk off for all of the same reaso

live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, dan nathan, guy adami, and katie stockton >>> and we're going to get to the moves in the commodities and rates in a moment, but we start out with two breaking stories. shares of mcdonald's and starbucks dropping after the close. >> melissa, we'll start with mcdonald's, shares of the fast food giant down nearly 10% right now. this on a warning from the cdc that the company has been linked to an e. coli outbreak no recall has been issued. the investigation began today. the agency saying there are so far 49 cases across ten states with ten hospitalizations and one death. most of the people affected so far are in colorado and nebraska, and the cdc saying that sliver ed onions are likely the source of the contamination. we've reached out to mcdonald's for comment, we'll bring you any further updates on that story as we get them, melissa and moving to starbucks, the company giving a q-4 warning with a preliminary earnings report ahead of its scheduled earnings next wednesday the 30th it suspended its full-year guidance for 2025. th

joining us to talk more about that is katie stockton. s just talking about you, katie, with regards to nvidia. but in the energy trade in particular, what are you looking for here? >> whe moved from an joef weigh position to an equal weight one. but it's had such a good run. it is the top performer as of q3, and year-to-date, it's just a close runner-up to technology and communication services, which have benefitted from the mega cap leadership. so we feel that the utility sector is poised for consolidation at a minimum here. xlu had broken out to a new high. that is a bullish, long-term development. you can see on the chart that the up move is really very steep. now it shows signs of exhaustion based on our over bought, oversold metric. that means short to medium term. so we're more comfortable with an equal or underweight stance here in the near term as gains are digested. >> would there be any trading recommendation for those that i don't know if they would be tempted to shore up something like this like a freight train. but what would

. >> way had katie stockton on a month or so about that. she thought you would see a spike in vix. i also believe, i do as well, she thinks you're going to have another round of it. i think volatility will be the theme. i think they were speaking at grant's conference. bipartisan fiscal recklessness is on the horizon. he is short bonds equivalent of 15% to 20% of the plortfolio. he thinks rates are going higher for the reasonsi thought incorrectly for a while. >> well, i -- you know, no one should be arguing with stan drunkenmiller who has proven over multiple decades here. but the argument and the construct around deficit unfriendly administration doesn't really matter and the fact that both sides of the aisle have been deficit unfriendly now for probably 15 years is something that you think about stimulus. it almost seems like it's free money. it certainly has proven to be. with the global central bank backdrop right now, the u.s. is in a position also, the dollar is in a position to get away with more rather than less. i agree with that. i think, you know, shorting the treasury

. >> maybe it's near term technical analysis, but katie stockton says maybe it's range bound for now,here's been a lot of excitement and a lot of hype. and what i know about blackwell most people know. >> there was some rumors about some delays to blackwell, some redesigns. as it turns out there were some issues that they were able to work through, and it turned into a nothing burger, at least from the stand point of the trajectory. it doesn't look like it slowed anything. that was the last time it went under a hundred. short of anything dramatic like that, i don't know if we see that anywhere. at this point, the indication is that the numbers are much more likely. they have an upward and downward bias. i ex-ekt that's true for the stock, as well. >> what do you have for the pe here? what are the earnings that the market is expecting, and what do you think is possible? what should the multiple be for a company growing like this? >> the multiple is not that expensive, if you believe the numbers. the sell side is somewhere around $4, maybe a little more. the buy side to the investors ar

katie stockton is one that thinks maybe we're going back into the high threes on the ten-year. where do you fall? >> i'd say probably low to mid threes, kelly. by the end of this year, call it 3.75, next year, 3.25-ish, but it hinging on the fed. if the fed says, hey, we're likely to cut fairly aggressively, yields are going to come down. so, it's been a lot of the talk from the fed, it's pushed up rates both on the front and back end. >> dan? >> yeah, how restrictive do you think the policy is right now? we have gdp that's tracking ahead of trend in 2024, we have unemployment that, you know, i guess the fed indicated 4.4% by the end of the year, that might not happen here. so, when you think about where yields are, where you think they're going to go, is it partially because of the rate and where it is as being restrictive and they're worried about, obviously, sending the unemployment rate higher and the economy lower? >> policy is restrictive. think about what the market is telling us regarding the end of the fed cycle. 3.35, 3.40, that's a big number. the fed would tell you

we had katie stockton on, i believe, in august, i think tyler was hosting the show that night, when the vix was 14, and she thought we were in for a period of volatility that typically lasts six to ninths. by august fifth, we saw the vix trade up to 60, and i think we're sort of round two on the volatility index. i don't know if it's going back to 60, but the low 30s is feasible, and that's meant the market sort of sells off. >> fair. and again, all those things that we've said could be dynamics to take --or the risk for the market, it's certainly with the geopolitics. and that doesn't seem to be getting better. i would get back to market dynamics, which are very important. and we came into monday with goldman raising their target, with mike wilson and morgan stanley, who has been constructive on the market, but he's gotten even more constructive. so, the backdrop of the strategist world is that the market's going higher. if you look at nvidia today, you look at semiconductors, from that high on june 16th, 17th, it with us a 20% pull-back in the semis. we're up 10% since the lows on sep

and katie stockton on what she's watching in the crucial final minutes of the trading day.the novavax movement. >> novavax shares down nearly 20% today. that's after the fda putting the flu shot trials on hold after the report of a series adverse -- serious adverse event. one person who received the experimental shot developed motor neuropathy. this report coming a year after the person got the covid-flu combination shot. novavax saying the clinical hold could delay its phase-three flu trials. the company is working on the covid-flu vaccine and the stand-alone flu shot. so of course this is not great news for them. we'll have to see if they can get that resolved and how quickly. >> for sure. angelica, thank you so much. diana, housing stocks, mortgage appli applications, a noisy story. >> reporter: obviously the stocks are going up bun on fundamentals. -- but not on the fundamentals. mortgage rates rose that tanked application dropping 17% from the week before. the average rate on 30-year fixed went to 6.25% with loans of 20 percent down. refinance demand was 26% week to we

. >> katie stockton a week or so ago felt the tlt could bottom in the near future.ction and i think maybe yields maybe ten year get down to 415 but i am still firmly in the higher rates by the end of the year camp. >> do not miss special coverage on election night all night long we have results as they come in and reaction from the biggest names in business. it starts at 7:00 p.m. eastern time from the new york stock exchange right here on cnbc. >>> coming up, a slate of, still to come this week and next. we are diving into what investors are expecting from eli lilly's telast quarter. more "fast money" right after this. ♪ i wanna hold you forever ♪ hey little bear bear. ♪ ♪ ♪ i'm gonna love you forever ♪ ♪ ♪ c'mon, bear. ♪ ♪ ♪ you don't...you don't have to worry... ♪ ♪ be by your side... i'll be there... ♪ ♪ with my arms wrapped around... ♪ >>> welcome back to "fast money." eli lilly on deck to report tomorrow, investors looking to see how strong growth will be for the pharma giant's glp-1 drugs. lilly shares hit an all time high in late august but have been range b

>> katie stockton. >> that's right. duce katie as btig and now she has her own shop and that helped you because now you'rechief guy at btig. no competition there we're all friends. we're all friends here thanks, jonathan see you later. >>> okay, coming up after the break, the cnbc road trip heads to wisconsin what small business owners there are saying about the economy and the election in that swing state. >>> and later, "wall street journal" reporting on secret conversations between elon musk and vladimir putin the story raising a lot of questions. we're going to talk about it with palantir co-founder joe lonsdale "squawk box" coming back after this. >> announcer: time now for today's aflack trivia question when was the last time the yankees played the dodgers in the world series the answer when "squawk box" returns. aflac! like how aflac pays people money for the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. aflac! health insurance does leave a gap. but aflac gives people money to help close that gap. aflac! oh! coach prim