let's talk about that slighty counterintuitive move with kriti gupta. i: it is kind of strange to see such a selloff in the nasdaq and s&p 500. people are actually going into the high beta tech space and asking if anyone will be buying the dip, perhaps not directly into the s&p 500, but they are doing this into funds. look at fund flows on a weekly basis, and you can see some of the pressures in the funds but outflows have reversed a little bit this week. the question, is this a buy the dip move or is this a more specific target towards some of the stocks in the ark a novation fund, like some of those biotech names and chinese adr's? something to watch in the weeks ahead. alix: so how does it compare to the s&p? kriti: pretty good before today but now about equal, reversing gains where it was outperforming in 2020 and 2021, not just on par with the s&p 500. we will see if that reverses now that you actually have perhaps a buy the dip mentality. guy: is there any movement around some of the price action we are seeing? this is a conviction trade, not only

jon: thank you so much, kriti gupta. seeing some headlines about bank of america bringing staff back to offices as new covid cases decrease. looking for some positive signs out there. that is one that we will continue to track. we will keep talking about the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪ jon: this is bloomberg markets. i'm jon erlichman. we talk about the u.s. tech giant. we have a canadian company that's been growing pretty quickly, shopify. as those companies get bigger and a country like canada, they have that outsize influence. you think back to the days when people were talking about businesses which were put out of business by the likes of cisco, the blackberry story. given that we have seen shopify lose 50% of its value, we wanted to speak to somebody who used to battle it out with nortel during the .com bubble. the former ceo cisco. >> the tech industry, a key competitor in nortel, they disappeared versus cisco. the canadian startups today are much different. shopify is an example. stocks got beat up a little

we've got kriti gupta with a chart of the day. what do you have right now?e got to talk about emerging-market equities. we know there has been a selloff in the developed world. what about e.m.? where is the cash going? it brings me to my chart of the day, where you are comparing emerging-market stocks of the developed world. after 10 years of underperformance, you are actually see them outperform, or as damian sassower would say, perhaps perform less badly than the rest of their peers. one of the major reasons for people to actually happen to emerging markets right now is because they think that these countries have front run some of the rate hikes you are going to start seeing in the developed world. mexico, for example, was one of the first countries around the world to start hiking rates, and they were not doing it to hike energy or commodity prices. they were targeting food prices, which is their main driver -- which was their main driver of inflation. tom: this is the strength of bloomberg, to go from could group to come of this -- from kriti gupta, thi

tom: kriti gupta, thank you so much.omics of oil, always fascinating, with huge uncertainty around it. part of the uncertainty we see in our spectacular hydrocarbons surveillance of december was a bet on 100, 120, 100 $50 -- $100, $120, $150 a barrel oil. today, brent crude near $80 a barrel. we get an update from our will kennedy on the oil market. what is different about this $80 brent versus the last time we were at $80 brent? will: i think most people will expect $80 not to be the top. some people expect it to go a lot higher than here, and we may see some softness through the first three months of this year. but i think the overriding idea is that we are going to find spare capacity, and these opec meetings are going to become quite moot if we don't have a massive reversal in the global economy or something severe. we will get to the point in the middle of the year will opec is pumping everything will barrel it can. at that point, the market will just keep pushing higher. tom: opec is about politics as much as it is

kriti gupta is joining us now. in some cases, these names are lower. i: going into earnings, they had some pretty high expectations. not only massive loan growth, but the rate hikes would boost stock and their bottom line. top of that, trading revenue in the fourth quarter, where we saw the volatility spike, the opposite of what we heard. let me run through some of the highlights. jp morgan, not great when it comes to the expense management. they missed of the estimates, but revenue was up 28%. wells fargo beating expectations but they say their lending growth will accelerate next year. citigroup having an investment banking surprise. at the end of the day, not putting up those profits that the market was anticipating. matt: talking about the trading pressure the banks have seen, and the fallout that we are seeing in the stock market. for more, let's bring in david konrad, large-cap bank analyst at kbw, keefe bruyette & woods. they have the famed index as well. talk about how you see the earnings that we have seen so far playing out. david: thanks for h

kriti gupta is here to tell us why. i: it is a risk off to a partially but it's a story that's been going on for a while now. you have largely cryptocurrencies taking a hit, but with a coinbase is of course having a major crypto exposure, getting a really big chunk of that. let's take a look at how it's been doing since its debut. a lot of the selling pressure has been accelerated in these last couple of months. this makes sense from even just a macro perspective. you do see money coming out of the value trade and tech trade. the piquant correlation is pretty strong. let's go once again to bitcoin -- the bitcoin correlation is pretty strong. let's go back again to bitcoin. it is a two standard deviation move, double the average move easy for bitcoin. that is having an adverse effect with cryptocurrency stocks broadly. in addition to concerns that perhaps the big boom -- the idea that retail transactions, which makes up around 85% of their revenue, that is sloping. take a look at what the revenue did in 2021, the most rec

kriti gupta daily with her chart of the day.some news from "the sydney morning herald." a check tennis player has been detained by australian border force officials and asked to leave the country. the player entered australia with vaccine exams and on the basis that she had been infected with covid-19 in the last six months. we understand this was the same reason used by novak djokovic. so the novak djokovic getting some additional news going into the weekend and into next week, when on monday we should hear a little bit more on mr. djokovic's case. tom: i think it is going to be a busy news weekend on this pandemic. i believe djokovic's right now can leave australia. there is some debate about was he detained or can he leave. what i know is it has been an extraordinary week. we are going into the jobs report here in 35 minutes, and one of the things on a friday, i go back to that wonderful child's book, "a snowy day." a snowy day in paris is absolutely extraordinary. it is not like london. it is certainly not like new york. but

us to talk more about the world's largest maker of earthmoving equipment is pretty group to -- kriti gupta the stock is down on a day when the overall market is roaring back. they beat earnings but only slightly. a lot of that margin pressure will be crucial. inflation pressure you are seeing. they will keep factories open despite the lack around materials they are getting. to offset those costs, they have to raise prices in 2022, when one of the biggest regional bases, china, is slowing down sales because they are slowing down their construction in asia in particular. the property development story in china seeping into caterpillar's earnings. revenue rose 23% year-over-year, but the backlog also rose, 54%. a lot of this has to do with commodity costs which are up 29% year-over-year. it is supply chain issues and commodity costs. that is causing the ceo to make some comments, demand is strong, but those variables come down to the supply chain. jon: thank you for that breakdown. staying with the subject of the supply chain, it will be in focus this weekend as governors converge on d.c. the

right now on the inflation, kriti gupta. kriti: it is a new year, but the same issue.ust hitting retail. it is heading semiconductors, chipmakers as well. i decided to compare the two. essentially, the supply chain issues you are seeing. in the some good letter space relative to the supply chain issues you are seeing in the retail space really just measured by a similar ratio right here. what you really want to know for the radio audience is that chip acres have been beating retail, especially in the last month or so. a lot of that has to do with simply what the growth outlook is. chipmakers are dealing with building up that capacity. retailers dealing with labor issues more so than anything, and right now it is ending up to be that use case for chipmakers helping them outperform. tom: thanks so much. going to have to race here because of the inflation call coming up in about 35 minutes. it is a beautiful and frigid not full moon in new york city last night. i guess even colder into the weekend. all of that leading to the full moon of january 17. that brings up the new

kriti gupta has been tracking the details. positive story when it comes to the restaurant, when many restaurants are struggling with that less foot traffic. shake shack coming out with some pretty strong fourth-quarter earnings, not only showing a beat in revenue but also operating margin, as well, and on top of that,comp sales. i want to get back to the omicron variant in particular. from a stock perspective, you have restaurants, cruise lines, the travel index dropping quite a bit. a lot of this has to do with pricing in the impact of the omicron variant, reversing some of that progress that came for a good chunk of 2021. if you don't have the federal aid, how can these restaurant chains continue to make a bottom line? let's talk about why shake shack is higher on the day. it has everything to do with comp sales. it came in at 20 8% quarter over quarter. compared to estimates, 17%. in historical context, that is still far less and what you have seen since the first quarter of this year. matt: it is tough to make comps. there

let's bring in kriti gupta who has been digging into the selloff. ou just heard mark talk about, as you have more hawkish monetary policy factored into the market, high multiple stocks are affected the most. no surprise, a lot of the gains concentrated in microsoft, apple, meta. what is crucial, yes, you are seeing big tech lead the selloff. you are also seeing them leave the returns. you saw them lead the s&p 500 to those highs before they went into correction territory. something to keep in mind is what is the buying opportunity, what signals should you be looking for that have worked in the past? we talk about the conversion. we should also talk about the dollar. a weakening dollar has proven to be what it takes sometimes for foreign investors to buy the dip. that will be something to watch for in the tech space. matt: we had a couple of indicators that we could be seeing a turnaround. vix maybe gives investors to go back in once we show some capitulation. bitcoin seems to be a risk indicator. kriti: that is what is scary about the selloff. these

kriti gupta is examining it for us. kriti: analysts would say it is absolutely worth that.lue just shy of $13 billion. if you look at just how much of their revenue makes up for that, they are paying top dollar. 64% premium. five years of their revenue for this acquisition. let's put this in perspective with other global game makers. they have been under a lot of pressure, part of that due to school we openings. who thought parents would want to make their kids learn? the chinese market restrictions as well. we have also seen a lot of takeover activity. revenues growing 9.4% annually. if you look at the videogame market, it is a split between traditional consoles and mobile gaming. that is what is going on with the mindset of take-two, the idea that they are trying to enter this digital market, going past their franchises of grand theft auto and others. matt: talking about probably the biggest videogame deal that has ever been done. if you look at the enterprise value, $12.7 billion. stay with bloomberg. we will speak with the take-two ceo at 3:30 new york time. we will see

javier blas scheduled to be with us on oil, but first, kriti gupta joins us on oil. alk about where people are putting their money. you're seeing them pulled out of the stock market come out of the treasure market. where you go over those returns? it looks like hedge funds are going to the muck had a that -- to the market like that. people are getting more bullish on the commodities sector. you have some of those forward curves in backwardation, which tells you there's expectation of future contracts being more in demand. the idea that the oil demand is not going to slow down anytime soon. you also have geopolitical tension in the mideast. some rebels sending drone attacks over to the uae. lastly, some concern about whether or not russia can actually keep up with the oil bets they have promised. tom: thank you so much. all of it wrapped up in the world for sale, and award-winning book by javier blas. we are thrilled he could join us this morning. i just looked at oil demand back 20 years. it is a beautiful, rising chart of oil prosperity. we are getting back to it off

with the stocks hitting the $3 trillion market valuation for the first time ever and bring back kriti guptaore. talk to us about what this means. kriti: it really does signify something good for the macroeconomy because apple can be a macro proxy where you start to see the foot traffic into its stores, the genius bar, you've seen a lot of their consumer goods spent on luxury goods. apple has served as a gauge for the broader economy in terms of the strength of the consumer. that is what this chart shows up at the correlation between apple and the stock market. if apple goes higher, the stock market does, too. the correlation did briefly dip. if apple was higher the stock market was the contrary in indicator but we are seeing a correlation back together which shows you once again that apple is serving as this broader macro story. it is not just today. it has been doing that all of last year, 2021. it was the second biggest driver for the s&p 500 right behind microsoft. let me tell you what was dragging the s&p 500 down in 2021. that is also a tech story. fintech on a lot of that crypto expos

gupta. this is bloomberg. kriti: thank you.ing up, the biggest semiconductor deal in history is on the verge of falling apart. we will tell you why. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: it is time for the bloomberg business flash i'm ritika gupta. johnson & johnson forecast when he 22 sales and earnings that beat wall street estimates. the health care giant is preparing to separate its drug and medical device unit from its consumer business. the drug unit accounted for more than half of sales last year. verizon has given a signal that free phone promotions and 5g expansion is hurting the bottom line. the largest u.s. wireless provider beat estimates for subscriber growth, plus get a full-year earnings forecast that was better than expected. american express is putting the pendant behind it. the comey's boosting forecast for revenue after spending on its cards rose to a record. they are also increasing its dividend for the first time since 2019. that is your business flash. guy: thank you very much, indeed. nvidia is preparing to abando

kriti gupta is here to explain why the buyers do not come out in force. i: it was a lot driven by tech. you did see a little bit of buying throughout the day, which is why some of the losses are not as severe. though third day of losses when , a it comes to the big tech names. nothing to sneeze at. a lot of it has to do with what you are expecting in the bond market. the federal reserve especially, a lot of bets they will hike faster and more times. as many as four rate hikes priced into this year, that is what is spooking tech. a lot of which is driven by the hedge fund selling. one i want to focus in on is rivian, this is going to be the second day shares are seeing a pretty big selloff. it has ended the day down 3%. at one point, it was done far more than that. a lot of that having to do with amazon buying even more delivery vehicles from another manufacturer. the big question is amazon has been allowed to buy part of their vehicles. rivian is only going to be able to sell to amazon. stock is dipping below the ipo price. also what leads the corrections.

kriti gupta joins us with a closer look. it was the announcement versus much was underpriced versus gm? kriti: shares are rising 11% mama think that you tend to see in the automakers. usually when you see consumer discretionary and autos rally, you think tesla, but this is coming out, embracing of the ev space, and the fact that they are doing it in a big way. this is not a slow gaining process with this is a doubling of capacity. this comes at a time when sales have actually been under pressure. the f series has been making up a good chunk of their sales for years, but in the last couple of years, especially in 2020 with that ship crisis, you saw sales, under pressure. this is a big move in terms of just breaking out of that and being able to deliver cars and on the ev space. compared to other carmakers, it is beating the market cap of gm in particular. this will be a big move for ford . jon: i am glad you highlighted the tesla story. looking back to disney, when they were first laying out the case for disney plus. here was

kriti gupta joins us with a chart of the day. ve got to talk about those banks, talk about what they are responding to. the pretty traditional play when you start to see nominal rates climb, banks are going to be your go to. pretty natural to see that is going to come into their bottom line, as you have higher rates. you can charge more on that lending growth. but if you look at the correlation, the ten-day correlation between the bloomberg world bank's index, which takes into account banks around the world, and the 10-year treasury yield, that correlation on a 10 day basis is turning negative, so we have statistics on our side to point out that this traditional play where you see yields higher, banks higher, is getting flipped on its head. those rate hike bets not playing into the financial sector the way we would think it would. tom: we've got to leave it there. thank you so much. right now, alison williams gives us the first summary. completely unfair. what is your initial summary of what we have seen from the banks? alison: i

let's get to kriti gupta for her chart of the day.e to talk about the commodity sector because we are seeing a lot of pressure in the equity market, certainly in the bond market as well, but you are not necessarily seeing that translate into the dollar, which continues to be stronger. therefore, even the face of commodities continuing to rise, that brings me to my chart of the day, which looks at the bloomberg commodities spot index, which does not just include oil and natural gas. it also includes the likes of wheat and aluminum. in 2007, commodities hit that peak right before the 2008 crash. the next one was in 2011. a lot of that had to do with the russian crop crisis. russia and ukraine together makeup 1/4 of the world's grain exports, so this will be a key piece of the equation for pressing and a potential invasion into ukraine. that is really what is driving that next leg higher in the bloomberg commodities spot index, once again to a record high. jonathan: let's talk about crude. brent at $90 per get wti at $87. joining us now,

it's shares soaring in response top kriti gupta is here to look at the numbers.rising is the number but they did not get weighed down by the same kind of supply issues other automakers had? michael: look at them -- kriti: look at the number years over here -- look at the numbers year-over-year compared to 2020. analysts were expecting a big beat but not quite as big as this. alix: let's bring this -- apple finally hits the $3 trillion in market cap value. the magic number was 18286. we hit it. it's just a round number but it has climbed 38% since the start of 21. kriti: tesla and apple are the two index contributors not just this week but these were the two major stocks that helps the s&p 500 put those double-digit gains. on a percentage basis, the energy names outperformed, but there is no other comparison to tesla and apple to what we are doing in this economy. tesla for the ev boom and apple for consumer spending, especially on luxury goods. alix: how owned are these names? what could really bring the market down? kriti: tesla is getting there, tesla is a key

the forward exchange discussion amid all of the news flow we have this morning, could -- craig -- kriti guptau look at the last three or four corrections in the last three years, two of them were spurred by apple hitting those $1 trillion milestones. but what reverses those big corrections? i did some digging, and those buy moments tend to be driven when you start to see a weaker dollar. it really tells you that those foreign investors tend to buy the debt first before domestic investors. this is kind of in to with what you have been hearing, especially in the last quarter of 2021, when you did see that growth taper off a little bit, and a lot of it has to do with the buyers, they simply weren't there. tom: in your weekend reading, what stood out? kriti: i am always going to stick to commodities. i think the commodity story when it comes to the middle east is fascinating. you're talking about the uae, saudi arabia being the only two countries to be able to ramp up oil capacity, and yet there are reports that the uae is already dealing with those attacks from rebels. lisa: goldman sachs had a

jonathan: looking to the year ahead, kriti gupta joining us with her chart of the day.are looking --kriti: we are looking to the year ahead, but some of the same risks persist. remember when we were dealing with that trade war with china? i've got news, it is not over. when you look at the stock market, it kind of feels like it is. my chart of the day looks like at the -- looks at the goldman index. the chart you need to know is how it compares to the s&p 500. how are those china exposed stocks doing relative to the broader index? since 2018, the line pretty much goes down and down until you hit that crash in march 2020, in which case those china exposed stocks outperformed the market through 2021. the biggest question is why is it doing that, even though used to have those tariffs in place? i believe we are looking at 20% tariffs on both sides, which absorb 90% of the cost, and yet the stock market looks right through that. i found it kind of funny. kailey: and why are they doing that at a time when china is cracking down hard on many industries? the adrs have performe

kriti gupta has a wonderful chart for us. are we up to seven rate hikes yet? parts of the market, we are out to as much as eight. this is part of the issue, that so many different players are icing and different things. the. pot still shows three rate hikes in 2022 -- the dot plot still shows three rate hikes in 2022. jamie dimon is saying at least five this year. that brings me to this chart of what markets are actually thinking. this is the spread of euro-dollar's over the next few months. basically three month contracts. also used for hedging against those expectations, and for our radio audience, what you need to know is it just gets steeper and steeper in the last six months, now hitting 100 basis points over the next 12 months, essentially pricing and the fourth rate hike for 2022. this is significant because not only are you seeing in 10 year yield a 47 basis point rise over the last month or so, but you are actually already seeing some of that priced into the market, and you are seeing that fourth rate hike be extra significant because some folks have

my cohost this morning, kriti gupta. alix steel has the day off. lcome everybody to "bloomberg markets." we've got some data to get through. kriti: we do. michigan consumer sentiment coming in at 68.8. the estimate was 70. we are starting to see that consumer confidence really wayne as you continue to see in elation or pressures at record highs. this is important because in december, we saw a bump up in consumer sentiment after six months of that dropping. those inflationary pressures in december were a little bit more calm, but that has turned around again, and it comes at a pretty bad time when you already see fiscal stimulus waning, savings waning as well. the question is how does this really affect that in consumer story, that growth story that had been powering 2020 and 2021? guy: the pickup in five to 10 year inflation has been stable, but the consumer is definitely expecting significant inflation going forward, and expectation may be that it fades throughout this year. consumers are not quite so sure. we had a long discussion this morning abo

brent crude, the global price of west texas intermediate, always a difference to craig -- to kriti gupta-kriti: we are getting very close to that level, which is crucial. the spread between wti and brent, this is significant. you have not seen this kind of drop in a while, at least in the last year. a lot of this has to do with the russian risk, pricing and that geopolitical premium that is so crucial. the idea that not only could you start to see an actual invasion from russia, the odds really ramping up for that, but also potential sanctions even without that rough invasion. at least, that is what is going through congress. that is what is getting priced in in particular. you mentioned the crucial level. bob mizuho -- bob michele at mizuho securities points out it is too cheap for international refiners to ignore. international were finals -- international refiners by u.s. oil instead of u.s. oil buying international, and it ends up upsetting that trade balance. tom: we go to the perspective of javier blas of bloomberg opinion on the dynamics of oil. i did in the extrapolation of oil t

of trading in 2022 and we will start the day with a check on the markets and for that we turn to kriti guptae up a little bit and yields on the bonds were up. kriti: green on the screen. all of the action -- this is kind of inclusive and that santa rally. that does include the first couple of days of trading. you see the nasdaq higher. a lot of them driven by tesla. 78% of the move and the nasdaq is driven just by tesla shares after their surprise beat on the deliveries over the weekend. good news for the nasdaq. helping the s&p 500 eke .

kriti gupta gives us perspective. what you have?a good looking -- i am looking exactly at those food prices that go back on a monthly basis to the highest level since 2010 and 2011 to really highlight just how extreme the move is. the last time we were at these levels, there was a gigantic food crisis in the world. you had droughts. you had a crop crisis in russia which is one of the major wheat producers of the world. to see that kind of extreme move really tells you this is going to be an issue that affects the bottom line of a lot of folks. to bring it back to the united states, to also have retail sales coming up at 8:30, that is gong to be crucial because in the last dataset, the biggest contributor was food prices. tom: i am usually guilty of an elite perspective where food is an afterthought. it is not, even in america. it is not an afterthought. kriti: that is totally true. i am looking at mexico, for example. if you look at their inflation numbers, they had to hike more than perhaps any other em country. the biggest driver

tom: kriti gupta gets us started.ant block into the next hour, abby joseph cohen when, jane foley with us. what you have today? kriti: we are going into earnings season tomorrow. one of the biggest questions is do we start to see a reversal of that 15 year downtrend between value and growth. i just had to go one step further and take a look at what exactly in that value index is actually doing the best. if you compare with the banks are doing to the s&p 500 value index, you are going to see various outperformance, especially in the first 13 days of the year. that is really what my chart of the day shows. i met is well just show a chart of the 10 year yield because that outperformance is really mirroring what you are seeing in the rates space, but it is not just yields pushing the sector higher. you have loan growth expected to grow quite a bit, and line with that booming economy, in addition to the fact that a lot of growth strategists have said you are going to see higher volatility into 2022, and at the end of the d