larry sabato. thank you. >> thank you and still ahead, israel and hezbollah trade rocket fire early this morning. >> what we're learning about america's involvement and how a top biden official shows are working to get a ceasefire deal in gaza the pros for have i got news for you are pretty odd. >> yeah. >> what are the kinds we could run out the news before then? >> that would never happen if i got news for you. the mere saturday, september 14th at nine on cnn and streaming next day on land, we do this last year for your fermenting migraine and kaitlan and look at me now, you'll never truly forget migraine, but zero migraine days or possibly don't take an allergic to be lifted. most common side effects are nausea, constipation and it's kulikov's that forget you get migraine medicine. >> if you have generalized myasthenia gravis picture would life could look like with viv guard high, true low. a subcutaneous injection that takes about 30, to 90 seconds for one thing, could it mean more time for you

joining me now to discuss is larry sabato is creator of sabato's crystal ball director at the universitytics and the author of a return to normalcy, the 2020 election that almost broke america. larry wonderful to have you. thank you very much. for being here. let's talk about north carolina, why you decided to move it here and how much do you think that has to do with the governor's race where republicans have a candidate who candidly said a lot of things that are out of step with more moderate voters. certainly with even many conservative republicans, a lot of things that people say are just downright offensive yes, the republican nominee, mark robinson is pretty much at war with the spirit of the age. >> but he fits republicans in north carolina and frankly, many other states quite well the problem is in north carolina no, it's a very divided state. it's closely divided. it is leaned republican, voted republican, fairly consistently, 2008 for evbuomwan being the major exception and governors, they'll elect democratic governors. but this particular republican candidate has said so many

. >>> the newly minted harris/walz campaign, larry sabato's crystal ball, shifted races.ning us, presidential historian and editor in chief of the crystal ball, larry sabato. your report notes that it appears harris has stopped the bleeding that came from president biden's first debate bringing the overall race back to a tie just ahead of the dnc later this month. is there a possibility that she can pull ahead with some post dnc bump, and would that even take her out of the margin of error? >> that's what we're looking for because she's already tied. in fact, there have been seven pretty reliable bipartisan or nonpartisan polls of either swing states or nationally in the last 36 hours or so. and every one of them shows either a tie or trump ahead by one or harris up by one, two, three. including in some surprising states like the one we move, georgia. aarp has a bipartisan team of pollsters and they've got it now dead tied 48-48. even more impressablely, a poll out of arizona, a high ground, as it's called, has kamala harris up by three. joe biden never led once in arizon

morning and joining me now is the director of the center of politics at the university of virginia, larry sabato, larry, it's always good to see you. i feel like you'd i've talked several times over this past week about a potential vp pick for. kamala harris were in the final stretch and she will be campaigning with her new vp pick on tuesday and philadelphia. where do the where do things stand in terms of the political calculus? and do you think that this top list of choices has changed? >> well, you never know whether there's some secret possible nominee that they've been vetting and meeting with harris's weekend as possible. i think it's much more likely that it's going to be one of those finalists. and you can't measure chemistry body chemistry, which everybody talks about. >> yes. harris has to be able to get along with whichever one you choose. but i kinda think that all of them would do their very best to be congenial to me from the beginning. and now and forever. it's always about the electoral college, as much as we may hate it it is about winning two hitters 70 electoral votes shapiro,

let's discuss the electoral implications of this with larry sabato. larry nationally, let's zoom out. how is this issue of abortion affecting the race for the white house? >> it's helping democrats everywhere in particularly obviously the national ticket, kamala harris and tim walz, they are both longtime pro-choice politicians whereas donald trump and you saw it again yesterday and then this morning, even with his running mate he's all all over the map and he has been all over the map for decades. i'm old enough to remember when he said on a key sunday morning show at the turn of the century, he is 100% pro pro-choice on abortion. ever since then we know what he's done and why he's done it. i think it's fair to say it's not on the basis of principle but that's true for a lot of politicians on a lot of issues. this is really a major problem for donald trump and for the republicans. they've got what they want the dog caught the mailman and now just doesn't know what to do with it and they're finally at that stage. he celebrated for a while. but then the

larry sabato from the university of virginia joins us next baseball. full of surprise. >> never seen anything like mlb tuesday on tbs is breaking down. you play years in teams that are breaking out tuesday, at 7:30 p.m. on tbs and max next, stuck at the dmv and i think i'm late on my car insurance good thing. the general gives you a break with flexible payment options. >> let's get you a break while you wait. >> what is this place? >> is rtm vip vending machine, charcuterie i think i can get painted license wait till the driving test know that's a park job for a great low rate go with the general there back verizon small business days are here. august 5 to the 11th. >> get a free check check, and special offers like a free 5g phone when you switch, don't miss out get started today. who are you i mean, a child less force our teacher going toward gets you going now we're talking with dodge order or to the totally torqued out crossover smile. >> you found it the feeling of findings, psoriasis can't filter out the real you. so go ahead, live unfiltered wit

. >> let's talk about the race for the white house with larry sabato. he's the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. larry great to see you as always, i want to ask you about something at to trump pollsters mentioned including tony fabrizio, a veteran of previous trump campaigns. they were talking about kamala harris is lead in certain national polls. and they were saying that they were not focused on that especially as they're showing harris pulling ahead, they want to keep their eye on the ball. so what do you see as far as the seven swing states and we're pulling, is there what does polling indicate to you about where they stand well, boris, it usually a cop-out to say everything's really, really close and everything's a toss up. >> but you know, sometimes it's true and in the case of the seven swing states this year i think it honestly is very, very close nationally right now, at least harris has a lead. >> you can argue about what it is a point or two or three but of course, as we learned over and over, certainly in the

let's discuss more now with larry sabato. he is the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. larry, i do want to ask you, when you're looking you get this new poll, this new new york times poll, showing vice president kamala harris ahead of former president trump within the margin of error, i do want to note among likely voters in three key battleground states of michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. what are you thinking that poll in particular has been criticized for most of this year as being two pro trump to pro republican. >> and it did in fact show numbers that were more republican. it's some other good polls. >> well how things have changed. now, you can always say, well, maybe it was the way it was conducted or the time it was conducted. all that's true. but i learned something many years ago, a rising tide lifts all boats that usually is a phrase applied to economics that if the economy is doing better, it's going to help just about everybody to do better. but it also applies to polling when

the electoral map, and math like larry sabato, the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. larry worth noting you made three big change just to the electoral map expectations since we last spoke, what are they minnesota and new hampshire at both become surprisingly competitive when president biden was still in the race. >> that is donald trump was a competitor in places where he shouldn't have been given the normal map. well, with these substitution of kamala harris, certainly with minnesota because of the addition of governor walz, but also new hampshire. and those four votes can matter in a close race. they are now leaning much more strongly democratic. but the big one i think is georgia. >> most of the georgia experts that we know and check with felton georgia was clearly leaning to trump for most of this year, even before biden's troubles. >> but that isn't true any longer. there there's so much enthusiasm and energy for kamala harris and the democratic ticket that those very same people, some of them republicans think that this is it's a very competitive s

larry sabato from the university of virginia joins us next who are you? i mean, a child a really nice life is some brick in total arce to go into the torch gets you going we're talking, i love car funds, wow we're wanted the total torque doubt crossover this is our night singles, doesn't care, but shingrix broke temps only shingrix is proven over 90% effective. >> shingrix has a vaccine us to prevent shingles and adults 50 years and older, she thinks does not protect everyone and it's not for those with severe allergic reactions to these ingredients or to a previous dose and increased risk of dion bar a syndrome was observed after getting shingrix painting can also happen. the most common side effects are pain, redness, and swelling at the injection site, muscle pain, tiredness, headache, shivering, fever, and upset stomach. asked your doctor or pharmacist about shingrix today? >> but keep safe frames app makes it ridiculously easy to frame your favorite photos. just choose a photo that you love select a perfect frame. and we'll have your framed print del

director of the university of virginia center for politics larry sabato stresses that polls showed kennedy'support below 2%, and he believes that some of that relatively small group will ultimately vote for kamala harris. in washington, drew wilder, nbc news. big man on campus. a bay area olympic volleyball player is bringing back his bronze medal from paris and celebrating it with his alma mater. san jose native taylor averill played on team usa's men's indoor volleyball team, and today he stopped by branham high school to meet with some of the students. it's just the first stop the olympian is making in the south bay on his give back tour. averill says he plans to hand out team usa gear to the kids as a way to inspire them to reach their goals. i mean, dude, if an olympian came down and, like, gave me his shirt when i was 15, i would have lost my mind, you know? so i just as an athlete now, i'm in a stage of my life where it's about giving back and this is a chance for me to recognize where i came from. and i don't take that lightly, i guess. he's so proud to be from the south bay. his giv

larry sabato is the director of the centre for politics at the university of virginia.gave me his analysis to today's developments in the us election race. my reaction was a little different than most people's. most people are saying, "tim who?" he's completely unknown outside of minnesota, not that that's a bad thing. as far as kamala harris�*s knee, i think she understood that tim walz was a balancing choice for her. his white, he is male, he is from rural area, he has won substantially and overwhelmingly in republican territory, particularly in those rural areas. he's what she needs to win the three states she's got to have for the blue wall — wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania in the blue wall. picking your vp is a difficult task because you need someone who will help you in the election but also someone you are going to be able to work with for four years once you take office. tell me the impact he will have on the polls. i don't think he's going to have much impact on the polls. that's true for most vice presidential candidates. jd vance on the republican side h

larry sabato, i'm going to leave it there, my friend, thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you, katy. >>> joining us now, former rnc chairman and cohost of msnbc's "the weekend," michael steele. i want to go back to what we were talking about at the top of the show. this is the clear choice that voters have in front of them, should they choose to pay attention to it, and that is the vision of the country that is democrats are offering, which is filled with a lot more hope and the vision that the republicans are offering that is we are in a very bad place and the only way to move forward and be successful is to get rid of a whole lot of people and dissent. when you look at two of these conventions, do you expect that this race is going to stay 50/50? and if it's going to stay 50/50, why do you think so? >> i don't think it will stay 50/50, per se. i think you're going to see a nice bump for the vice president coming out of this convention. that was an incredible framing of her narrative, her individual narrative as, you know, a young girl growing up middle class america. her prof

our panel the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia our old friend, larry sabato and republican strategist doug heye guys. thanks to both of you. doug limit year here in the studio. let me go to you first. i mean, this debate over the debate, it sounds kind of hokey the thing to say, you know, coming out of my mouth. i mean, this debate is going to happen, right? well, let me say first, since you've talked about rfk last week, i was i was on this network and i made a joke about the way he speaks which is totally out of bounds and i just want to acknowledge that and apologize. oh, okay. his ideas totally inbounds how he speaks differently, but to your question about the debates every campaign, whether you're talking about president, congress, or chief grave digger, although that may be an appointed position, has a debate about debates when and where, how many, what the format's are. there usually completely meaningless unless the incumbent just doesn't want to do any. that's clearly not the case here. and with what donald trump says, it's so in line with what he of

to trump insiders about potentially endorsing the former president joining us now to discuss is larry sabato. he's the director for the center of politics at the university of virginia also with us cnn political commentator and political anchor for spectrum news. errol louis, great to be with both of you, larry, is it? >> automatic that a majority of rfk junior supporters will wind up going to vote for donald trump absolutely not. >> look, this is a classic example of an event that seems important at the time. >> and after the election, we go back and say, she that didn't matter much, did it? >> they're going to be the a lot of them, but this is going to be one of them rfk jr. has dropped like a rock since kamala harris entered the race and biden exited the race because the whole rationale for his candidacy was that you had two old white guys running against one another and people didn't like either one of them. well, that's changed and we've learned a lot more about rfk junior, and let's just say a lot of it hasn't been favorable and other pieces have been embarrassing i'm well, errol, let'

i want to talk more about this with larry sabato, director of the center for politics at the university of virginia so let's start with the economy because it, maybe it's the differences with the market versus the economy. because even when the markets were doing well, we constantly heard from americans that they weren't feeling the gains as much in their pockets. and i'm wondering how you read these economic indicators politically, and how it may complicate things for the incumbent administration, which in this case is vice president harris well, omar, it's not good news, obviously for the incumbent administration and for the vice president. >> but it's one day and maybe it turns into one week. >> i don't know how long it's going to last. i don't think anybody does. but that's not how most people measure the economy. it is true that about half the public has some stock investment, even if it's in their ira or other retirement account. but again, that's not how they measure it. they're much more likely to measure the economy and how they feel about the economy from the price of gasoline

america continues to lead the world and play its role as the indispensable nation joining us now is larry sabato is director of the center of politics at the university of virginia. larry, i know we've been having you standby for a while as we've been following the breaking news bouncing ball this morning but your sense of of tim walz as a running mate, i was talking with van jones about this little earlier in a kind of feels like a joe biden to barak obama type choice. but maybe you have other thoughts and what about the fact that she didn't pick josh shapiro, who it comes from, a very important state of pennsylvania well, josh shapiro, florida. obviously upsetting part of the democratic coalition. but jim, it's been what 16 days of betting or 16 days of thinking about this for kamala harris and i think we're at the point where democrats will pretty quickly reunite and support the ticket whether they had a favorite or not. imagine if this had been three months or four months, or five months, you would have warring camps this morning. so that is that's right there. the old rule, which you've hea

. >>> larry sabato, the director of the center for politics, says rfk jr.'s endorsement of trump won't matter much. >> he has been dropping like a rock ever since kamala harris got in. when he started, he was in the upper teens. in some polls, he was in the low 20s. now, at best, he's at 5% or 6% in some of the states, and those polls are outdated. you know, we've had a democratic convention. one network poll just a few days ago had him at 2%. one, two. for people who think that because he's endorsing trump he can just move that 2% into trump's column, they don't know much about politics. it doesn't work that way. it's not going to work that way. some of them will go to trump. some of them will vote for harris. some of them may choose someone else on the ballot. there are still plenty of other candidates, depending on which state you're in. i can think of several hundred things that would have more impact than rfk jr. dropping out of the campaign and endorsing trump, kind of. you know, he's in, he's out. he's in here, out there. frankly, it's embarrassing. >